Baccaratfrom79's Response to the Board
Quote: sc15Aren't the burn cards face up? so you can write those down too.
The issue is, even if a place is cutting only 14 cards from the end of the shoe, the odds that a +EV situation arises on player/banker is almost nil. There ARE opportunities for a tie bet (like if all the final cards are face cards, there's a guaranteed tie), but those situations are still extremely rare and you'll be doing a whole lot of waiting to be able to place a bet.
I have never ever seen where they burn the cards face up, not once.
As far as knowing when there will be 6 monkeys left or 4 eights left, I would say virtually impossible.
Good luck counting the shoe.
Quote: AxelWolfYou will have to explain the difference between someone betting 100k on a few hands or someone betting the same total action betting less on many hands. There's a possibility someone betting 4 hrs at a smaller amount might generate more comps compared to 1 hand win or lose. Unless you have a special deal or that particular house has a soft spot for single large bets.
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I don't pay for comps. BTW, as I said before, there is a 'quick loss' that usually runs at least 10% at most properties, be clear on it before starting or trying a different property than what you are used to. IT can be up to 20%. They look at your 'at risk' money more than front money or buy in with baccarat in different ways than black jack, craps and roulette. Understand clearly with your host that has confirmed with his department head as to the ratios that they apply outside of the 4 hours/average wager/speed of play and theo.
But I rather wager 10 wagers of $10k when the shoe is strong to either way, than 20 of $500 or 40 of $250, etc.
Quote: AxelWolf
"Only a fool plays every hand of approximately 80 hands in a bac shoe" Again that smells like system play talk. The only foolishness about betting more hands .
Furthest thing from a system. TALK TO any experienced bac player with over 10 years playing. First thing out of a decent player's mouth.
Quote: Baccaratfrom79Furthest thing from a system. TALK TO any experienced bac player with over 10 years playing. First thing out of a decent player's mouth.
That's the problem there's no such thing as a "decent player" Other than unique players with proven plays such as edge sorting or rare scenarios. There's ZERO skill in baccarat. It's like me telling you... I'm an experienced coin flip guesser, and i'm decent at it (I'm no better at it than a 5 year old). If you want to argue procedure, lingo and superstitions, and give merit to that, fine. Perhaps you can argue experience helps them preserve money without losing any lucky big wins all back, IE quitting or dropping down your bets when you're ahead, playing fewer bets to preserve money, not betting an amount that will cripple your BR.
I'm not sure if you consider yourself a good baccarat player(I consider you both the best and the worst, because no one player is better than another) , if you do consider yourself a good baccarat player, how do you measure that? I assume you feel you have a better chance at winning than some total noob because you know when and how to bet streaks. If that's the case, you should be well ahead of the game after years of playing(good/decent player = someone who is ahead overall) but by your own admission you don't keep track of wins and losses. For all you know, you may be down many thousands, and one of the worst bac players at your level.
Either you have an advantage, or you don't. Implying you're an "experienced" player makes it seem like you have an advantage. This is what I, along with others (Axelwolf? and more) have a problem with.
Just saying we gotta give him his due there. Otherwise, I think you guys have the better argument.
Quote: RSBac79 is talking about how he's "experienced" at bacarrat, giving off the impression there is more to bacarrat than betting banker or player. In other words, "experienced" implies that someone is a winning/good player -- whereas a non-experienced player tneds to lose (more so than) an experienced player.......which is, of course, false.
Either you have an advantage, or you don't. Implying you're an "experienced" player makes it seem like you have an advantage. This is what I, along with others (Axelwolf? and more) have a problem with.
Compare it to sports. You get the same results as when someone with more talent according to his stats, comes up against a competitor that is on a roll or doing the unexpected or just plain lucky. It is more than wagering Banker or Player, a winning player will wager with what the shoe is doing, no matter what it is doing. Yet, that is impossible to do for a lengthy time, it is very very possible to do for 'sections', that is not the hard part IMO, it is the patience, the waiting and the control of your bankroll and emotions. Unlike blackjack where you actually have to beat someone, in baccarat as we all know-there is no 'house' side or hand. Best I can say. There is no secret, but it would be the same as a newcomer to Vegas getting from say The Tropicana up to the Mirage in prime time bumper to bumper traffic. I know I can do it in less time with say Frank Sinatra Drive and assorted parking lot/property cut troughs 17 or so times out of 20.
Quote: odiousgambit5 large bets are better than 10 small bets, though, he is right about that, total action being the same. That makes a player like that a better baccarat player.
Just saying we gotta give him his due there. Otherwise, I think you guys have the better argument.
Less house advantage, less exposure, less chance to lose. Total action the exact same if you can survive the chances you expose yourself to.
Don't know about you, I can win 6 wagers easier than 12 or 12 easier than 24, etc. Time is what kills you at any game. There is no argument there.
Everyone knows that play in Macau now, it was burnt out a few years ago. Not saying that you can't still find it. I wrote about it in my blog, but won't mention it here.Quote: sc15Yeah, that play takes a LOT of patience.
On the plus side the table maximums are high at baccarat and if you got a few people in your crew you can get 100K+ in action down on that 1 hand with a double digit advantage at times.
http://i1382.photobucket.com/albums/ah247/glenbac08/IMG_2213_zpsfxhu12ct.jpg
Quote:Compare it to sports. You get the same results as when someone with more talent according to his stats, comes up against a competitor that is on a roll or doing the unexpected or just plain lucky.
How can you objectively measure your success rate ("stats") when you do not bother to keep track of your wins and losses?
Ever heard of the concept of selective gambler's memory?
The only thing that makes you more experienced at baccarat than a newbie is that you've played it longer; this gives you no quantifiable advantage.
Continue to delude yourself that you can somehow read the shoe; you can't.
It's just variance: luck happens.
Quote: MrVNote that few posters disclose a lot of private info about themselves, their jobs, and their families.
Details about what we do, what we earn, what our family looks like should probably best be kept confidential.
Not that I won't read what someone posts about these things: it is "interesting," but of zero relevance on a Vegas / math-based gambling related board.
When a person harps on how successful they are in gambling and in life it leads one to wonder whether they are being completely truthful, especially when they've already been called out on a "misstatement of fact."
This is not the right board to play "Mine is bigger than yours."
Show me one single post I made (not in jest or pun where it was obvious I was ribbing someone) where I said I was making millions, or I was highly successful in gambling or I never lost or I always win or I won so much the proceeds went to open up businesses and buy homes. Think what you want, I left for a reason and I posted this thread and played along with it to, well, crap I don't know. I won't post elsewhere and when you had enough--how about going to examine your foolproof math and make your own millions??? I have done very well, allowing me to enjoy the casinos watching all the AP'ers grind it out and go bust, the ones I seen, but then again, I never saw you or your crew did I???
Better I blot out the pictures. Geesh, when someone did that there are snide comments, 'oh no-faceless people again'. What the hell the difference.
Quote: MrVHow can you objectively measure your success rate ("stats") when you do not bother to keep track of your wins and losses?
Ever heard of the concept of selective gambler's memory?
The only thing that makes you more experienced at baccarat than a newbie is that you've played it longer; this gives you no quantifiable advantage.
Continue to delude yourself that you can somehow read the shoe; you can't.
It's just variance: luck happens.
You made your point, your hammering. Don't sit at the same table and follow me, especially when I am winning. Better yet, hell, make millions---perfect!!!! Fool proof. Your so smart, I am frigging jealous----simply just wager against me---you are sure to win!!!! (tears from my eyes)
In sports, there are objective stats.
There are none available to quantify your success rate, as you *ahem* don't bother to track your wins and losses.
How convenient.
Without even knowing whether you win, how can you hope to impart anything of value to others about your method of play, other than to say "I have fun?"
Now I am really confused???????????????????????????
IE: Gay-lesibean-transsexual????? (no discrimation a swinging thing in a crotch with boobs can also be an AP'er, SORRY!, my bad)
Religion???? (lets talk politics about how Obama gambles with an edge, SORRY, my bad)
Night Clubbing??? (oh scratch that, the booze allows AP'ers to better win in a few hours, SORRY, my bad)
Shopping??? (yeah, where can a AP'er get a deal to save a few bucks, SORRY, my bad)
I figured it out, it really is a total math related AP'er board! WTF??????
So if this is a math/AP'er board, etc., as mentioned, where is the talk in those forums????????????????????
Quote: Baccaratfrom79
I figured it out, it really is a total math related AP'er board! WTF??????
Would have thought you'd figure that out the first time you were here. or the second. or the third...
Quote: MoosetonI'll back sc. I'd like to make a wild ass guess that the two posters who doubt Bac79s claims don't own their own business.
+1
Quote: rdw4potusWould have thought you'd figure that out the first time you were here. or the second. or the third...
I realized that after reading all the rooms I have never went into until this morning. Like I mentioned in my post above, laughing so hard tears came from my eyes. I only have one question, how many of you actually clip someone's heal while walking in Vegas and then when they turn around he give them that look, like hey buddy your a jerk?????
Yes. There are those here who actually know things and you don't want to listen to them. You will continue to get challenged as long as you make statements without merit.Quote: Baccaratfrom79I figured it out, it really is a total math related AP'er board! WTF??????
Quote: ncfatcat+1
Answer me something someone with all the superior brains of being an AP'er so highly intelligent and respectful and on a perch miles in the sky, putting college professors theories and knowledge to shame you certainly will know the answer cause I don't:
Why is it so many employees comes to work late, leaves early, scratches his balls while talking to you, every other word a cuss word or disrespectful word, complains at what he makes, lasts a few months, quits without notice, needs to borrow money to pay is rent and necessities all the time, etc., etc., etc., the list goes on and on and on...................
Quote: Baccaratfrom79Answer me something ...Why is it so many employees comes to work late, leaves early, scratches his balls while talking to you, every other word a cuss word or disrespectful word, complains at what he makes, lasts a few months, quits without notice, needs to borrow money to pay is rent and necessities all the time, etc., etc., etc., the list goes on and on and on...................
Because you let them.
This site/forum/etc was founded by The Wizard himself... a "math guy" as we've been referred to a couple times in this thread. His math skills/proofs/strategies/etc were the basis for drawing people in whom a) didn't know the math, b) knew some math and found they could learn from the Wiz, and c) people whom knew the math and respected what the Wiz was bringing to the table thus wanting to be part of his community.
The simple fact that this site/forum is math based means you will never be able to make claims of "obvious patterns" or "lucky monkey statues", that go unchallenged, because the core of what makes this site does not believe in that. It believes in the math, and the math says there are no "obvious patterns" and that the "lucky money statue" is just a statue and according to the law of large numbers sometimes when you pull it out you WILL win which might make you think it's lucky, but it's not, that's again just the math of the game.
You will get challenged when stating things like "this guys always wins doing X.." or "we all saw that pattern coming!"... However, I don't see how this isn't a good thing? The free exchange of information from some people to another is called sharing ideas/experiences/knowledge. At the end of the day it's an opportunity for all parties involved to learn from one another. When a "math guy" calls BS and posts some math formulas in your thread, really stop to think about why he's doing it. At the core of everything, he's doing it to TEACH and provide INFORMATION to those whom don't understand the math. Are some of the math guys a little rough on their people skills/communication? Sure... but a lot of that has to do with how you take it. If you're not interested in learning the math, then don't, but don't get upset, or even surprised, when the core principals of this site are brought up against wildly non mathematical claims.
Quote: aceofspadesSo us non-AP's lay it all on the line for the mathletes with our "fun" trip reports, yet the mathletes get to claim "AP privilege" when it comes to theirs? They don't have to name names in their reports - they can claim to be playing at any store they wish
I'm an AP, and believe I've provided my own mathematical analysis to prove it. I've posted several trip reports, both winning and losing. I can't speak for everyone else, but I've done both sides. There's SO MUCH documentation, math, etc, etc, that goes in to AP play. At the end of the day the last thing you want to do is write a "report" about everything because you just spent the last hour documenting all of the hands you can remember, how many times you saw +3 true counts, etc. A lot of AP players do a tremendous amount of work before/after trips, so they might not have the drive to then do a full trip report. Some AP players might not have the capacity to do everything they normally do AND step away from the table every hour to make updates/responses/etc.
The reason you see more non AP trip reports is many fold. They either don't have the time/energy to share, or being APs, they don't want to share.
Bac, you bring an interesting perspective to this site... by that I mean something a bit different than we're used to, and at the end of the day I believe different experiences are necessary to learn about ones self and world we live in. Experiences->Knowledge->Wisdom. Regardless of good, bad, mathematically sound, or voodoo experiences, they all provide us with a chance to grow/learn. I hope you keep sharing your experiences, and have no doubt you'll have a lot of positive feedback (as well as some math critiques). Just don't get surprised, nor upset, when these happen. Take each as an opportunity to learn, and if you don't want to, then ignore the comments you don't want to learn from.
Quote: Baccaratfrom79Answer me something someone with all the superior brains of being an AP'er so highly intelligent and respectful and on a perch miles in the sky, putting college professors theories and knowledge to shame you certainly will know the answer cause I don't:
Why is it so many employees comes to work late, leaves early, scratches his balls while talking to you, every other word a cuss word or disrespectful word, complains at what he makes, lasts a few months, quits without notice, needs to borrow money to pay is rent and necessities all the time, etc., etc., etc., the list goes on and on and on...................
They're all trying to AP you. The first tenent of Capitalism is that for a business to be profitable it has to make money on the labor of the employees. In other words, you make a profit by paying people less than they are worth to the business. A lot of people realize this (mostly subconsciously) and attempt to "even things up" by doing as little as possible and still get a paycheck. The ones who work hard and diligently are usually there to learn what you know and then go in to business for themselves.
Quote: RomesWell then, didn't I miss the train leaving the station a couple days ago... Everything in this thread is pretty easily summed up:
This site/forum/etc was founded by The Wizard himself... a "math guy" as we've been referred to a couple times in this thread. His math skills/proofs/strategies/etc were the basis for drawing people in whom a) didn't know the math, b) knew some math and found they could learn from the Wiz, and c) people whom knew the math and respected what the Wiz was bringing to the table thus wanting to be part of his community.
The simple fact that this site/forum is math based means you will never be able to make claims of "obvious patterns" or "lucky monkey statues", that go unchallenged, because the core of what makes this site does not believe in that. It believes in the math, and the math says there are no "obvious patterns" and that the "lucky money statue" is just a statue and according to the law of large numbers sometimes when you pull it out you WILL win which might make you think it's lucky, but it's not, that's again just the math of the game.
You will get challenged when stating things like "this guys always wins doing X.." or "we all saw that pattern coming!"... However, I don't see how this isn't a good thing? The free exchange of information from some people to another is called sharing ideas/experiences/knowledge. At the end of the day it's an opportunity for all parties involved to learn from one another. When a "math guy" calls BS and posts some math formulas in your thread, really stop to think about why he's doing it. At the core of everything, he's doing it to TEACH and provide INFORMATION to those whom don't understand the math. Are some of the math guys a little rough on their people skills/communication? Sure... but a lot of that has to do with how you take it. If you're not interested in learning the math, then don't, but don't get upset, or even surprised, when the core principals of this site are brought up against wildly non mathematical claims.
I'm an AP, and believe I've provided my own mathematical analysis to prove it. I've posted several trip reports, both winning and losing. I can't speak for everyone else, but I've done both sides. There's SO MUCH documentation, math, etc, etc, that goes in to AP play. At the end of the day the last thing you want to do is write a "report" about everything because you just spent the last hour documenting all of the hands you can remember, how many times you saw +3 true counts, etc. A lot of AP players do a tremendous amount of work before/after trips, so they might not have the drive to then do a full trip report. Some AP players might not have the capacity to do everything they normally do AND step away from the table every hour to make updates/responses/etc.
The reason you see more non AP trip reports is many fold. They either don't have the time/energy to share, or being APs, they don't want to share.
Bac, you bring an interesting perspective to this site... by that I mean something a bit different than we're used to, and at the end of the day I believe different experiences are necessary to learn about ones self and world we live in. Experiences->Knowledge->Wisdom. Regardless of good, bad, mathematically sound, or voodoo experiences, they all provide us with a chance to grow/learn. I hope you keep sharing your experiences, and have no doubt you'll have a lot of positive feedback (as well as some math critiques). Just don't get surprised, nor upset, when these happen. Take each as an opportunity to learn, and if you don't want to, then ignore the comments you don't want to learn from.
Fine, spot on and I respect everything you said, 110% or maybe a greater 1,000%! Seriously and without pun, ribbing or anything of the like. Truly.
All I want to know, is when I pull out that little gold monkey and let him do his Voo-Doo dance on the table because I was requested to do so by another player and that player had the faith, the guts and the foresight to know that little guy brings a touch (I said a only a touch) of magical powers---and then a monkey card comes out of the shoe, BOOM!, what is that??? Come on, just admit, it could be so. He has very very seldom every crashed and burned and let the table down! I gamble, I am part of the experience, the game, the wins and the loses, a minuet peon in a huge sea of players doing the same thing. So, as you said, "Regardless of good, bad, mathematically sound, or voodoo experiences, they all provide us with a chance to grow/learn". No matter what anyone here thinks or feels or accuses me of, I will not change my ways or my personality. I am also honored to receive my latest Voo-Doo guy from a friend that was also at the tables for many years. I can only assume I am alone in my convictions except for the handful of players that really know me.
Good grief.
This has me doubting the integrity of your purpose here.Quote: Baccaratfrom79and then a monkey card comes out of the shoe, BOOM!, what is that??? Come on, just admit, it could be so.
Quote: MrVMonkey monkey.
Good grief.
So seriously, what do you play, and have you really played any baccarat or just looked in the pit as everyone was yelling for a monkey and seen it didn't come out???
Quote: teliotThis has me doubting the integrity of your purpose here.
My purpose here, to share and learn. Again, I will leave, just get together and vote me out or demand I do so. I don't take well to places I am not welcomed. I really have no problem wither way, I left last time, the PM's and emails convinced me to post this thread.
Quote: Baccaratfrom79My purpose here, to share and learn. Again, I will leave, just get together and vote me out or demand I do so. I don't take well to places I am not welcomed. I really have no problem wither way, I left last time, the PM's and emails convinced me to post this thread.
Please don't leave until you've told us about your helicopter rescue from the roof of the burning MGM hotel in 1980, the deadliest fire in Nevada history and the third loss of life hotel fire in modern US history. I'll start.
November 21, 1980.
7:05 AM Supervisor of tile setting crew discovers fire in deli and alerts security.
7:17 AM Clark County FD receives call.
7:19 AM Engine 11 arrives.
Your turn.
Quote: Baccaratfrom79...---and then a monkey card comes out of the shoe, BOOM!, what is that??? Come on, just admit, it could be so.
It could be a 'lucky charm'... but more likely it is two things:
1) The law of large numbers (which denotes that part of the time you pull that monkey out regardless of luck or not a 'monkey' card will come)
2) Human beings selective memory. I'd be willing to bet you recall twice as often you win with that monkey as lose, even though if you really had recorded all of the times you pulled it out you probably are equal, or loss more than you realize. You believe it's lucky, you want it to win, so your mind will remember more when it does and less when it doesn't.
I'm not saying you can't have lucky/magical things in this world, just that I personally don't believe that little monkey makes a 'monkey' card come =p. Come on, admit it, it could be so =).
Quote: RomesIt could be a 'lucky charm'... but more likely it is two things:
1) The law of large numbers (which denotes that part of the time you pull that monkey out regardless of luck or not a 'monkey' card will come)
2) Human beings selective memory. I'd be willing to bet you recall twice as often you win with that monkey as lose, even though if you really had recorded all of the times you pulled it out you probably are equal, or loss more than you realize. You believe it's lucky, you want it to win, so your mind will remember more when it does and less when it doesn't.
I'm not saying you can't have lucky/magical things in this world, just that I personally don't believe that little monkey makes a 'monkey' card come =p. Come on, admit it, it could be so =).
Seriously, let me get a cup of coffee, I have to ponder on this for a bit.................
Quote: Baccaratfrom79So seriously, what do you play, and have you really played any baccarat or just looked in the pit as everyone was yelling for a monkey and seen it didn't come out???
My game is craps.
I've played baccarat and quickly decided I didn't care for it.
I play recreationally, to blow off steam / decompress, to have fun, and hopefully to win: just like you.
Quote: MrVMy game is craps.
I've played baccarat and quickly decided I didn't care for it.
I play recreationally, to blow off steam / decompress, to have fun, and hopefully to win: just like you.
Now there is a skill, an art and a science, AP'er 'dice setting', can you teach me that? I am not trying to spa with you or be funny. Is there any possible way to adhere anything to the dice when you set them to make them land together and face up at a pre-determined destination? Just curious?
Quote: MrVMy game is craps.
I've played baccarat and quickly decided I didn't care for it.
play recreationally, to blow off steam / decompress, to have fun, and hopefully to win: just like you.
So, you have how long playing the game of baccarat? (please note I DID NOT day 'experi.....', I am scared just to spell it out any longer!
Quote: MrVMy game is craps.
I've played baccarat and quickly decided I didn't care for it.
play recreationally, to blow off steam / decompress, to have fun, and hopefully to win: just like you.
deleted, duplicate! Fingers sticking just thinking about dice setting, huh???
Quote: 1BBPlease don't leave until you've told us about your helicopter rescue from the roof of the burning MGM hotel in 1980, the deadliest fire in Nevada history and the third loss of life hotel fire in modern US history. I'll start.
November 21, 1980.
7:05 AM Supervisor of tile setting crew discovers fire in deli and alerts security.
7:17 AM Clark County FD receives call.
7:19 AM Engine 11 arrives.
Your turn.
Not now. He's busy working.
Quote: RomesExperiences->Knowledge->Wisdom. Regardless of good, bad, mathematically sound, or voodoo experiences, they all provide us with a chance to grow/learn.q]
I am borrowing this from a PM: (very true---no numbers to attach, sorry)
"How about beings with a beginning and an end, how can they tell you how something with no beginning and no end behaves"?????
About the monkey:
" [The monkey works] and the [monkey doesn't work] are both equally true-but no one of you really know--same as religion".......
As I said, just maybe.........................just like counting cards and wagering with a + or - factor, same-same.Bac79=Hazardous Material and Chemical person correcting other's mistakes. Non AP'er, I can't count cards, low intelligence. Sprinkles magical dust on the cards. Has a lucky monkey. Baby also has a green one. Sum it up: "It's okay just blame me, it's all my fault"! ( No one believes me--so I chose to stop posting)
Quote: Baccaratfrom79Quote: RomesExperiences->Knowledge->Wisdom. Regardless of good, bad, mathematically sound, or voodoo experiences, they all provide us with a chance to grow/learn.
I am borrowing this from a PM: (very true---no numbers to attach, sorry)
"How about beings with a beginning and an end, how can they tell you how something with no beginning and no end behaves"?????
About the monkey:
" [The monkey works] and the [monkey doesn't work] are both equally true-but no one of you really know--same as religion".......
As I said, just maybe.........................just like counting cards and wagering with a + or - factor, same-same.
As beings of intelligence it should be a staple of our intelligence that we do in fact have the capabilities to describe infinite things. Simply stating "We all have a finite number of years means we can't explain anything that's not finite" is fairly naive, in my humble opinion. It's apples and oranges.
The next statement is a can of worms I'm going to try to deal with very carefully... Whatever you believe, you believe, and no one can take that from you. While that is true, that doesn't mean what you believe is fact. Example, I believe if I jump really hard gravity won't affect me and I'll fly right off the Earth! No matter how much I truly submit to this thought and truly believe, it will never be true, because gravity is a fact, a law of nature, mathematics, and physics. Belief does not equal proof... Counting cards, like gravity, doesn't require your belief to be fact. It can be proven mathematically. It can be tested. It can be proven (and has been millions and millions of times). I can mathematically prove counting cards is not luck, nor does it involve luck (in the long run -- which is easily attainable and not some infinite number). I can also mathematically prove your monkey isn't any luckier than the standard deviation that surrounds your play. I'll just need to borrow your monkey for a few hundred thousand hands to prove that to you =P.
Quote: RomesQuote: Baccaratfrom79Quote: RomesExperiences->Knowledge->Wisdom. Regardless of good, bad, mathematically sound, or voodoo experiences, they all provide us with a chance to grow/learn.
I am borrowing this from a PM: (very true---no numbers to attach, sorry)
"How about beings with a beginning and an end, how can they tell you how something with no beginning and no end behaves"?????
About the monkey:
" [The monkey works] and the [monkey doesn't work] are both equally true-but no one of you really know--same as religion".......
As I said, just maybe.........................just like counting cards and wagering with a + or - factor, same-same.
As beings of intelligence it should be a staple of our intelligence that we do in fact have the capabilities to describe infinite things. Simply stating "We all have a finite number of years means we can't explain anything that's not finite" is fairly naive, in my humble opinion. It's apples and oranges.
The next statement is a can of worms I'm going to try to deal with very carefully... Whatever you believe, you believe, and no one can take that from you. While that is true, that doesn't mean what you believe is fact. Example, I believe if I jump really hard gravity won't affect me and I'll fly right off the Earth! No matter how much I truly submit to this thought and truly believe, it will never be true, because gravity is a fact, a law of nature, mathematics, and physics. Belief does not equal proof... Counting cards, like gravity, doesn't require your belief to be fact. It can be proven mathematically. It can be tested. It can be proven (and has been millions and millions of times). I can mathematically prove counting cards is not luck, nor does it involve luck (in the long run -- which is easily attainable and not some infinite number). I can also mathematically prove your monkey isn't any luckier than the standard deviation that surrounds your play. I'll just need to borrow your monkey for a few hundred thousand hands to prove that to you =P.
I understand your answer, and thanks! Makes perfect sense, most of it. Except for the part about the monkey isn't any luckier. But I can't part with the little guy for that long.
Quote: Baccaratfrom79Seriously, let me get a cup of coffee, I have to ponder on this for a bit.................
Concerning #1) Nope. I have been in games where every time a player needed a monkey he failed to pull one, we all lost. He seen me do the 'VooDoo' bit with the little monkey, and then he asked if I could take it out and do the 'VooDoo dance' with him. BOOM! The little guy got him the luck to pull a monkey.
Concerning #2) Absolutely Not! True what you said. However, no applicable to the little monkey when I pull him out. The amount of times I have used him, he succeeded, maybe once or twice he didn't, darn close to perfect though. If you asked me (here it comes, I know the disbelievers will have a field day!) someone at the table had no believe in the little guy.
Quote: Baccaratfrom79Concerning #1) Nope. I have been in games where every time a player needed a monkey he failed to pull one, we all lost. He seen me do the 'VooDoo' bit with the little monkey, and then he asked if I could take it out and do the 'VooDoo dance' with him. BOOM! The little guy got him the luck to pull a monkey.
Would you be 'shocked' or thank 'luck' if I flipped a coin heads after flipping 10 tails in a row? It's just bound to happen eventually (law of large numbers). If he didn't get the monkey 10 times in a row, do you really think it all that impossible that for the games mathematics to level out to EV eventually a monkey that helped him would come, regardless of your voodoo or not? Now, this is just small scale (a shoe or two, a night or two, etc) but I'm using this example to make a point. How do you know it was your voodoo and not the simple fact that no player will ever always "not" get a monkey card when they need it?
Quote: Baccaratfrom79Concerning #2) Absolutely Not! True what you said. However, no applicable to the little monkey when I pull him out. The amount of times I have used him, he succeeded, maybe once or twice he didn't, darn close to perfect though. If you asked me (here it comes, I know the disbelievers will have a field day!) someone at the table had no believe in the little guy.
Lucky for you, there's a perfect way to test this method... =). Go to blackjack, pull your monkey out, and just bet tens of thousands of dollars. You'll get all face cards, right? =p
Simpler than that... Get get a single deck, shuffle, cut, and set it in front of you. Discard 1-10 cards of your choosing. Then, pull your voodoo monkey statue out. Flip the next card and record if it's a face card or not. Do this a ton of times and see how often your monkey statue 'makes' a face card come =p.
It only works for Baccarat? Okay... Play Baccarat, video record the hands (can be a home game you're dealing even). Every time your bet needs a monkey card pull out your voodoo monkey statue. Record how often you get the face card and don't get the face card with the monkey. I'll wager any amount of money you want that if you do this for at least 50 shoes you'll be within 2 standard deviations of the 'expected value' of receiving a face cards in your situation. This is easy... You could easily deal a shoe of baccarat in 20 min at home. 3 shoes an hour, couple hours a night. Would take you less than 10 days to get these results (and that's only allotting for 2 hours a night). To modify an old saying a little: Proof will be in the pudding ;).
Quote: RomesHow do you know it was your voodoo and not the simple fact that no player will ever always "not" get a monkey card when they need it?
>>>>>>(Ever been down to the swamps in Louisiana)????<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
Lucky for you, there's a perfect way to test this method... =). Go to blackjack, pull your monkey out, and just bet tens of thousands of dollars. You'll get all face cards, right? =p
>>>>>>>(He knows nothing about Blackjack, he is a baccarat kind of monkey. I don't know why, just that way)<<<<<<<
(Also, I was warned sporadic use only, like 'when in a pinch')
q]Bac79=Hazardous Material and Chemical person correcting other's mistakes. Non AP'er, I can't count cards, low intelligence. Sprinkles magical dust on the cards. Has a lucky monkey. Baby also has a green one. Sum it up: "It's okay just blame me, it's all my fault"! ( No one believes me--so I chose to stop posting)
Quote: Baccaratfrom79'Your stuff is all irrelevant this', "This is a Vegas/Math related board", quote unquote:
Now I am really confused???????????????????????????
IE: Gay-lesibean-transwierdsexual????? (no discrimation a swinging thing in a crotch with boobs can also be an AP'er, SORRY!, my bad)
Religion???? (lets talk politics about how Obama gambles with an edge, SORRY, my bad)
Night Clubbing??? (oh scratch that, the booze allows AP'ers to better win in a few hours, SORRY, my bad)
Shopping??? (yeah, where can a AP'er get a deal to save a few bucks, SORRY, my bad)
I figured it out, it really is a total math related AP'er board! WTF??????
You do know that it was the Wizard who, upon request, allowed the gay threads and that this is a gay friendly site? Our members of that persuasion may not take kindly to your comments.
Quote: 1BBYou do know that it was the Wizard who, upon request, allowed the gay threads and that this is a gay friendly site? Our members of that persuasion may not take kindly to your comments.
Nothing wrong at all. Equal right 100%, many friends that are TS and they are beautiful and involved in a very positive aspect of the adult industry, ie: Thai, Viet, etc. Nothing but the highest regards, 100%! And do you have a problem with a TS being an AP'er or does that insult you? I have no problem, come visit us next time we are in Vegas, a beautiful TS might just tag along with 'his' straight husband, but I still rib them about being a he/she, op or post op.
Quote: Baccaratfrom79"How about beings with a beginning and an end, how can they tell you how something with no beginning and no end behaves"?????
This is the best question with answer that I've seen since I've been on here. It requires some refinement.
Nobody really understands infinity or for that matter then, the finite; theoretical physicists can merely attempt to have the infinities cancel.
It's the whole point of the cosmic inflationary modeling: If there is but one universe, then no choice of physics. One should be as capable of working back to the "big bang" as forward from the space-time singularity beneath. But, if the universe "restarts" itself in parts, all along, or by whole, with essentially random physics each time as it pauses to "reconsider", then physics isn't unique.
Inflation has to do with how the quasi-infinite nature of the "big bang" paused to catch up to itself or decide upon the physical laws (we experience, out of no laws at all).
Personally, I would rather an infinite universe in every possible way, and get on with it, to be able to combine the above options of cosmic inflation into a "smooth" one. Deterministic infinity, one which is still pausing and sorting to come to finally see itself "in the middle".
Quote: Baccaratfrom79Nothing wrong at all. Equal right 100%, many friends that are TS and they are beautiful and involved in a very positive aspect of the adult industry, ie: Thai, Viet, etc. Nothing but the highest regards, 100%! And do you have a problem with a TS being an AP'er or does that insult you? I have no problem, come visit us next time we are in Vegas, a beautiful TS might just tag along with 'his' straight husband, but I still rib them about being a he/she, op or post op.
I was referring to your made up word transweirdsexual. It sounds derogatory, especially on a forum where you are a newcomer. I'm sure you've seen it before at all the sex clubs you used to own.
Quote: Kerkebetrandom physics each time as it pauses to "reconsider", then physics isn't unique.
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Remember that part of your statement. Random shoe results, random Monkey or Voo-Doo lion (cant 100% vouch for the lion yet, it will be under trial and error in Vegas next trip) but the monkey certainly is unexplainably great!
Quote: 1BBI was referring to your made up word transweirdsexual. It sounds derogatory, especially on a forum where you are a newcomer. I'm sure you've seen it before at all the sex clubs you used to own.
My bad, I took it out of my quote, apology if I offended anyone. One of my wife's best friends is a post op Southeast Asian TS and have been to great lengths to defend her.
Quote: Kerkebet...Nobody really understands infinity or for that matter then, the finite; theoretical physicists can merely attempt to have the infinities cancel...
No.. No, no. Stop it. Do not mislead people.
First you can't just say "infinity." You have to give context to what you're referring to. Can we describe infinity years of our universe? Can we describe infinite hands of blackjack being dealt? Sorry, but I personally, and logically, think those are two completely different things. I'm a computer engineer whom does a lot of programming. Part of programming is dealing with the infinite. We write programs that can do/calculate things a billion times faster than us. This is where simulations of "infinite" hands come from. Do you know what infinity is in one of these simulations? It's 1 hand. It's 1 random hand after another played over and over again until the mathematical difference is negligible enough that no matter what happens next it won't change the result. The results converge to the answer. For any given 1 hand you could win, lose, etc... But over the course of "infinity" the results will converge to one number. Thus, you can have a definitive answer for what happens after 'infinite' tries in something. In fact, we can describe what "infinity" equals. If after 1,000,000 hands the number is already mathematically negligible, then we can say for blackjack 1 million hands is "infinity" (or more commonly called 'the long run').
We absolutely have the capability to describe things of infinite nature. Just because you can describe 1 doesn't mean you can describe them all, but in the same token just because you can't describe 1 doesn't mean you can't describe them all.
