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100xOdds
100xOdds
Joined: Feb 5, 2012
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Thanks for this post from:
odiousgambit
February 6th, 2020 at 6:57:56 AM permalink
Anyone short Corona beer?
https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/02/05/drinkers-are-confusing-corona-beer-with-the-corona.aspx

Since the virus began to take on global proportions in the middle of January, online searches for the phrase " beer coronavirus" surged over 3,200% globally while "corona beer virus" rocketed 2,300%.
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
billryan
billryan
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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February 6th, 2020 at 8:05:31 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

NIO up 11% today. Now 4.51

Of note I had 61 shares of Tesla. Has around DOUBLED the past week. Sold 11 shares today at $940. I like owning an even number of shares.
It makes no sense, actually. They make cars. And they don't sell that many.

I like concept of BTI. Now 44.74. They sell cigarettes. They sell enough to make a big profit. Price makes sense to me.

Portfolio now up 73% since inception.



Tessa is not a car company. It's many things but I'd say it's an energy/ software/technology company.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
Hullabaloo
Hullabaloo
Joined: Nov 30, 2014
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Thanks for this post from:
odiousgambit
February 7th, 2020 at 6:35:10 AM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

Anyone short Corona beer?
https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/02/05/drinkers-are-confusing-corona-beer-with-the-corona.aspx

Since the virus began to take on global proportions in the middle of January, online searches for the phrase " beer coronavirus" surged over 3,200% globally while "corona beer virus" rocketed 2,300%.



SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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February 7th, 2020 at 11:44:10 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

Tessa is not a car company. It's many things but I'd say it's an energy/ software/technology company.



You are correct. It was valued as a car company two weeks ago. Now it is valued as a tech company.

I was asked about MGP. Own none. Not Interested in MGM. Only gaming stock left is GLXZ.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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February 9th, 2020 at 6:58:49 AM permalink
For those interested.... my B in L follows a few stocks closely and feels he "knows" them. He does not day trade, but rather will try and 'buy low' and 'sell high' over the course of a few days or weeks or rarely longer. We were texting during the ridiculous Tesla run up, and when it hit the 900's he bought puts (betting TSLA would go down). He risked $6k, and sold them the next day when Tesla dropped into the 700's, at a profit of $2k. He felt it was like 'free money'.
My point is that if Tesla kept going up to 1000+and didnt come back his puts would have eventually been worth zero. How did he know that 900 was the 'silly' number and it wasn't 700, or a week before 500? If he bought puts when Tesla was 500, they would be almost worthless now.

Mostly what he does is find a stock, figure its 'real' value, say $40 a share..... Buy when it is 38, sell when it is 42, rinse and repeat. I always ask how do you KNOW when it is 38 it wont have the bottom fall out and have it drop to 20.....?
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
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February 9th, 2020 at 9:22:07 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

For those interested.... my B in L follows a few stocks closely and feels he "knows" them. He does not day trade, but rather will try and 'buy low' and 'sell high' over the course of a few days or weeks or rarely longer. We were texting during the ridiculous Tesla run up, and when it hit the 900's he bought puts (betting TSLA would go down). He risked $6k, and sold them the next day when Tesla dropped into the 700's, at a profit of $2k. He felt it was like 'free money'.
My point is that if Tesla kept going up to 1000+and didnt come back his puts would have eventually been worth zero. How did he know that 900 was the 'silly' number and it wasn't 700, or a week before 500? If he bought puts when Tesla was 500, they would be almost worthless now.

Mostly what he does is find a stock, figure its 'real' value, say $40 a share..... Buy when it is 38, sell when it is 42, rinse and repeat. I always ask how do you KNOW when it is 38 it wont have the bottom fall out and have it drop to 20.....?

How certain are you that his overall results are in the black?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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February 9th, 2020 at 10:33:21 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

How certain are you that his overall results are in the black?



Certain. He is doing it for a living. He had a low paying job and made a deal with my sister that he would have to make a minimum of 6 figures to not look for a 'real' job again. My sister makes decent money and has a job that has full benefits.
But my point is this..... since the overall trajectory of the market over the past 5 years has been up, in essence when he has bought a stock it was +EV, as any random stock was +EV. So buying ANY stock at 40 it had a greater chance to go to 42, than 38.
I think he does overextend and does not use an actual Kelly Criterion, but more likely makes one up in his head.
He does have to pay real taxes on almost all of his profits; it is just like any other business that makes a profit. (A small amount of trading is done in a retirement account, so tax deferred).
I think that if the overall market turns south, he might not be as successful. Kind of like you, Axel, he sees opportunities where others do not. I'm betting with him on a VERY LOW scale. As I mentioned earlier, I now own NBEV on his advice. It's under 2 now. I'll be selling half if it makes 4.
100xOdds
100xOdds
Joined: Feb 5, 2012
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February 11th, 2020 at 10:22:12 AM permalink
so oil is now in contango.
that means next month's Future's contracts are cheaper than this month.

great time for shorting oil (ie: buying dwt) and holding past this month's Future's expiration date of Feb 21??
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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February 11th, 2020 at 12:10:56 PM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

so oil is now in contango.
that means next month's Future's contracts are cheaper than this month.

great time for shorting oil (ie: buying dwt) and holding past this month's Future's expiration date of Feb 21??



I don't do futures/puts/calls/shorting etc.... I got to figure there are others smarter than me on the other side of whatever I do. I sold 1/4 of my MA today as it has more than tripled from inception and thus I had a disproportionate amount compared to other stocks. Bought some A rated bonds paying around 3% for the next 12 years.
I may sell 1/4 of my Apple as well later in the week, same concept.

By the way, there is an AP play available to parents of kids in college who are financially able to pay for the kids college. Have the kids take out as large a loan as allowed that will be called a student loan. Do what you want with the money......., save it, invest it, etc...... If a normal person becomes President pay it off.... if Sanders or Warren or any other 'eliminate student loan debt' candidate wins you are PLUS gobs of money.
Wife has some student loan debt from Dental School...... was considering paying it off but will wait at least until after the Democrat candidate is clear.
100xOdds
100xOdds
Joined: Feb 5, 2012
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February 12th, 2020 at 6:57:34 AM permalink
Why is the stock market skyrocketing these past 2 months like it was the tech gold rush of the 2000's?
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)

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