WoV stock portfolio
Nividia is the one stock I own, a smallish amount - I decided to take a flyer about 18 months ago - I got bored with my index funds
it is the largest listed company in the world with a market cap of $4.6 TRILLION (unreal)
from a New York Times article from yesterday, which is behind a paywall:
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"Nvidia’s Quarterly Profit Hits $43 Billion on Strong A.I. Chip Sales
Total profit for the fiscal year was $120 billion, the company said. Three years ago, it was just $4.4 billion.
Nvidia controls about 90 percent of the market for the cutting-edge semiconductors that power A.I. projects. More than anyone else, it will benefit from the plans of Google, Amazon, Microsoft and Meta to spend more than half a trillion dollars this year building A.I. data centers.
“A.I. is only going to get better from here,” Jensen Huang, Nvidia’s chief executive, said during a call with Wall Street analysts. “This is the future of computing.”
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"AI Overview
Over the past year (as of February 2026), NVIDIA (NVDA) stock has experienced monumental growth, driven by unprecedented demand for its AI chips, with shares rising approximately 54% to 59% in that period. Its market capitalization has reached a record high of $4.6 trillion.
Key Performance Highlights (Past Year):
Stock Performance: The stock saw a 52-week low of $86.62 and reached a high of $212.19
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Revenue Growth: Driven by a 75% increase in annual Data Center revenue.
Market Position: As of early 2026, it is the largest listed company in the world.
Recent Outlook: Despite high valuations, the company continues to provide strong revenue guidance, projecting $78 billion in revenue for the first quarter of fiscal 2026.
The stock has shown consistent growth due to massive investments in AI, though it has faced some volatility following its, at times, explosive earnings reports. "
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Quote: DougGanderYou do know everyone is concerned about Nvidia's circular investment strategy? ie they give money to big tech outfit to buy who their chips who give money to medium tech outfit etc etc. It looks very dangerous to me. Especially if OpenAI go under which looks increasingly likely.
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You act like they invented the Hamster Wheel.
Quote: DougGanderIt looks very dangerous to me. Especially if OpenAI go under which looks increasingly likely.
there are always risks in investing - maybe as you indicate the risks are greater now - if there are greater risks there are also greater potential rewards
I'm not risk averse - bring it on - if my portfolio drops by a big % I won't be crying - I know it could happen
of course there are many who are stating that AI will cause the market to tank and cause other massive problems
here is the point of view of those who don't believe that will happen
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"AI Overview
Arguments Against an Immediate Crash
Resilience of the Market: Some analysts believe the market is exhibiting "incredible resilience," and that fears of a doomsday scenario are based on hypothetical, fictionalized scenarios.
Productivity Boom: Many, including Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, argue that AI is a transformative technology boosting productivity, making fears of a crash "illogical".
Long-Term Equilibrium: History suggests that while new technologies displace workers, the economy eventually reaches a new, more productive equilibrium.
Overdone Sell-offs: Recent dips in AI-related stocks are seen by some as "meaningfully overdone" and a buying opportunity, rather than an indication of a total market collapse."
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The President has announced that he plans to lower house prices while also maintaining the current owners' investments. I hope he succeeds, although I believe "buying" a thirty-year mortgage is one of the worst investments a young person can make.
I have 5 separate portfolios. The WoV one is around 40% of the total. Market down A LOT today. WoV portfolio down only .4%. (Will be much worse when TWCUX is valued). But not too bad overall.
Buttttt….. all 4 other portfolios UP today. Not much. But enough so total of all 5 only down 0.07%.
I like days like today. When the market goes down a lot and I only go down a little that’s a good day!
Quote: billryanThink of it like you are sitting at a blackjack table. What the other players do is irrelevant. If your portfolio went up overall, it's a good day. If it went down, it isn't.
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We have beaten this horse to death. You are wrong. Have always been wrong. And will continue to always be wrong.
If I wanted to, I could put my entire portfolio in an insured interest bearing account. It would go up every day. So someone who did that and missed out on literally millions of dollars always had ‘good days’?
Your obstinacy can be frustrating….
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: billryanThink of it like you are sitting at a blackjack table. What the other players do is irrelevant. If your portfolio went up overall, it's a good day. If it went down, it isn't.
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We have beaten this horse to death. You are wrong. Have always been wrong. And will continue to always be wrong.
If I wanted to, I could put my entire portfolio in an insured interest bearing account. It would go up every day. So someone who did that and missed out on literally millions of dollars always had ‘good days’?
Your obstinacy can be frustrating….
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Again, it depends on your needs and wants. I'm looking for income and moderate growth. If my portfolio goes up 15% and yours goes up 30%, it doesn't matter to me.
You should rethink your last statement- what do you suppose happens to people who have good days the rest of their lives? Ask Willie Wonka.
.Quote: SOOPOOWhy I ‘hate’ the stock market. LilRed detailed the GREAT results Nvidia reported. Not only were they GREAT, they BEAT all the ‘experts’ predictions. It has PLUMMETED in the short term since. My AI friend explained it as such…. ‘Despite great results that even beat expectations, there are worries that that trend won’t continue’.
I have 5 separate portfolios. The WoV one is around 40% of the total. Market down A LOT today. WoV portfolio down only .4%. (Will be much worse when TWCUX is valued). But not too bad overall.
Buttttt….. all 4 other portfolios UP today. Not much. But enough so total of all 5 only down 0.07%.
I like days like today. When the market goes down a lot and I only go down a little that’s a good day!
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Nvidia went up just before the earnings report. Two things about that: 1: it means they knew earnings were good so the move was made early. 2:When stocks go up BEFORE earnings are released they almost always go down in the days after the report comes out.
Quote: SOOPOOWhy I ‘hate’ the stock market. LilRed detailed the GREAT results Nvidia reported. Not only were they GREAT, they BEAT all the ‘experts’ predictions. It has PLUMMETED in the short term since. My AI friend explained it as such…. ‘Despite great results that even beat expectations, there are worries that that trend won’t continue’.
I don't believe that is an accurate take.
Every man and his dog has been saying that Nvidia's results are worrying circular. They are essentially paying people in a complicated purchasing chain to buy stuff from them. There is no value being created there, it is an accounting trick. It has become so obvious that even financial analysts have noticed it.
Additionally Nvidia's profitability depends on the continued expansion of AI which is extremely loss-making for every company selling it. It seems big tech is pulling back from OpenAI, the poster boy for AI, and it seems likely that company will not fail. That will cause a crash in the sector.
At some point someone has to do something with chips that makes money. This isn't the art market or bitcoin where external capital can keep things at stupid prices forever regardless of the fundamentals. There isn't any higher power here that can do that-this is what the global economy is running on.
If you simply beat expectations, you are disappointing.
If someone says hold, they really mean run away,
Quote: billryanI gave most of my portfolio to a pro to manage, and the first month's results are in. 3.67% for the month would be an annual return of 44%. I suspect he'll cool off at some point.
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1.2% return for Feb.
4.87 YTD equals a yearly return of under 30%.
I told you it would cool off.
I am thinking of selling off my bond fund holdings which are a small % of my portfolio and buying gold as a hedge against a falling market
the bond funds have done okay - beating inflation by a bit - which is what is expected of them - these funds buy junk bonds so they wil go down too if the market goes down
I won't be buying gold bars but instead the etf GLDM which invests in gold
it has done well even in some of the years when the market has gone up
I'm interested in hearing any comments you guys might have about this
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GLDM/performance/
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Is gold still a hedge against a falling market? It hasn't acted like one lately.
Quote: billryan
Is gold still a hedge against a falling market? It hasn't acted like one lately.
hunh - ?
Friday the Nasdaq dropped just under 1% and Gldm gained 1.27%
it gained another 0.35 % in after hours trading
in 2022 the Nasdaq dropped 32.58% and Gldm only lost 0.47%
but thanks for the comment - I wasn't aware it was near an all time high -
"AI Overview
Market Sentiment: Analysts note that the market is experiencing high volatility, with significant, rapid spikes and corrections, yet it remains supported as a safe-haven asset."
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Gold has risen about 175% over the same period.
The Nasdaq is up about 125% since Jan 2022.
It used to be that when the market was in a bear run, gold was an alternative. Now they are both going up at the same time and have been for several years.
Precious metals are currently more speculative than any other description I can think of.
Past performance is no indication of future performance and the more you look back, the less time you have to find forward trends.
For whatever it is worth- I loved gold and silver and bought a lot of it when I left NY and at one point had 3,000 ounces of silver. Outside of collectible coins, I currently have very little silver or gold. I expected silver to drop under $50 by now, but it is showing strength.
There are an incredible number of proven silver and gold mines that were not economically viable to mine, but if silver stays in the 80s or above, it's a new game.
Quote: billryanGold is at or near its all-time high and is at a level it has never approached in 6,000 years of use. The chances of it reverting to its normal pricing seem greater than it doubling again.
Is gold still a hedge against a falling market? It hasn't acted like one lately.
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It depends greatly on whether Iran can and will shut down the gulf of Hormuz for any length of time. It is essentially a bet on that in the short-term.
If that happens oil could easily go to $100 a barrel. Food prices will become unaffordable everywhere leading to mass civil unrest globally. Russia and other kleptocratic petrocracies will and to some extent already are benefitting greatly and cause a lot of additional chaos.
I don't think any one knows whether that will or will not happen. Drones which are cheap, freely available and impervious to bombing campaigns make it very difficult to make the area safe. It is probably a positive expectation investment to buy and a decent hedge in light of that against other assets, but a risky bet in itself.
Point being, it MADE SENSE to me that the market would be down…. and as I type this it isn’t….
Quote: billryanwhat do you suppose happens to people who have good days the rest of their lives? Ask Willie Wonka.
August 29, 2016 was not a good day for him.
Quote: SOOPOOBefore golf (7:20am ish) ‘market sell off’, ‘Dow will plummet’ ‘stocks to be crushed’ due to US attack and resulting instability and increased oil prices. That lasted a few hours….. Dow, NASDAQ, S & P 500, Russell 2000 all slightly up. (My WoV portfolio and other portfolios are down due to my Berkshire holdings).
Point being, it MADE SENSE to me that the market would be down…. and as I type this it isn’t….
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In the stock market, I think if I did the opposite of what I thought on a daily basis I would be wealthy.
Quote: DRichQuote: SOOPOOBefore golf (7:20am ish) ‘market sell off’, ‘Dow will plummet’ ‘stocks to be crushed’ due to US attack and resulting instability and increased oil prices. That lasted a few hours….. Dow, NASDAQ, S & P 500, Russell 2000 all slightly up. (My WoV portfolio and other portfolios are down due to my Berkshire holdings).
Point being, it MADE SENSE to me that the market would be down…. and as I type this it isn’t….
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In the stock market, I think if I did the opposite of what I thought on a daily basis I would be wealthy.
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The key to being wealthy is knowing what counts.
Quote: SOOPOOBefore golf (7:20am ish) ‘market sell off’, ‘Dow will plummet’ ‘stocks to be crushed’ due to US attack and resulting instability and increased oil prices. That lasted a few hours….. Dow, NASDAQ, S & P 500, Russell 2000 all slightly up. (My WoV portfolio and other portfolios are down due to my Berkshire holdings).
Point being, it MADE SENSE to me that the market would be down…. and as I type this it isn’t….
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You write "dow will plummet" and "stocks to be crushed" as if someone said those things literally but provide no source, no attribution at all. A search for those phrases came up with nothing. The point of putting things in quote marks is that they are meant to be quotations....if no one actually said those things then you are badly misrepresenting the situation. Did any one say those things or not?
And no it doesn't make any sense for the market to be down. In almost every big event that happens the market oscillates wildly it almost never goes straight down, you have to go back to 9/11 for a clear example of that. That isn't how markets work. They price in a lot of information before it happens and adjust to new information by trying to make sense of fragmented information. No one was surprised Iran was attacked given it had been talked about for months, the possibility had already been factored into the market. .
Quote: DougGanderQuote: SOOPOOBefore golf (7:20am ish) ‘market sell off’, ‘Dow will plummet’ ‘stocks to be crushed’ due to US attack and resulting instability and increased oil prices. That lasted a few hours….. Dow, NASDAQ, S & P 500, Russell 2000 all slightly up. (My WoV portfolio and other portfolios are down due to my Berkshire holdings).
Point being, it MADE SENSE to me that the market would be down…. and as I type this it isn’t….
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You write "dow will plummet" and "stocks to be crushed" as if someone said those things literally but provide no source, no attribution at all. A search for those phrases came up with nothing. The point of putting things in quote marks is that they are meant to be quotations....if no one actually said those things then you are badly misrepresenting the situation. Did any one say those things or not?
And no it doesn't make any sense for the market to be down. In almost every big event that happens the market oscillates wildly it almost never goes straight down, you have to go back to 9/11 for a clear example of that. That isn't how markets work. They price in a lot of information before it happens and adjust to new information by trying to make sense of fragmented information. No one was surprised Iran was attacked given it had been talked about for months, the possibility had already been factored into the market. .
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it happened the way Soopoo thought it would in Europe - the quotes are from an NYT article that is behind a paywall
I will make a prediction that stocks indexes will drop significantly in the U.S. by the end of the trading day - futures are way down so my prediction is not a great one - futures were also down yesterday morning before trading began
"European stock markets sank for a second day as traders assessed the potential for lasting disruptions to international energy supplies. The Stoxx Europe 600 fell more than 2.6 percent, its steepest drop since April. Benchmark indexes in London, Paris and Frankfurt all feel between 2 and 3 percent."
traders and investors don't always focus on the future - sometimes they focus on the current reality
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Quote: 100xOddsDow hovering at 49k for a few weeks.
I sold to cash at 47k.
39k (20% drop) below that would be nice for me to buy back in
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and a month later, dow back at 47k.
50% buying back in at 42k and the rest at 39k.
or 50% buying at 42k then the rest into microstrategy when bitcoin drops to $10k
Quote: billryanFor the average investor, who is cost-averaging and reinvesting dividends, it's been a nice run.
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Haven't been dca but have been reinvesting dividend s
Quote: AutomaticMonkeyOh, the Panicans are at it again. But I don't mind, I pick up the stuff they put on sale.
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If you were actually investing then you would know many people in many asset classes have already lost fortunes.
Quote: DougGanderIf you were actually investing then you would know many people in many asset classes have already lost fortunes.
anyone who has already lost a fortune has made poor decisions (assuming they don't have other fortunes elsewhere in the market)
the essence of successful investing is diversification -
the Nasdaq has only lost about 1% year to date and the S&P 500 is still up by a tiny % ytd; and the Dow is also up a tiny % ytd
of course, a big drop may be coming soon, or may not be coming soon - nobody knows for sure
QQQ which tracks the 100 largest Nasdaq companies lost about 33% in 2022 and about 42% in 2008
it lost about 36% in 2000, about 33% in 2001 and about 38% in 2002___________ouch!!!
after those big drops it has had some huge years - + 50% in 2003, +55% in 2009, + 37% in 2013, + 39% in 2019, +48 % in 2020 + 54% in 2023
the S&P 500 also had large drops in the years mentioned but not as large as in the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
no guarantees of course, but the broader markets have always come back stronger after big drops
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https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/QQQ/performance/
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Quote: lilredroosterQuote: DougGanderIf you were actually investing then you would know many people in many asset classes have already lost fortunes.
anyone who has already lost a fortune has made poor decisions (assuming they don't have other fortunes elsewhere in the market)
the essence of successful investing is diversification -
the Nasdaq has only lost about 1% year to date and the S&P 500 is still up by a tiny % ytd; and the Dow is also up a tiny % ytd
of course, a big drop may be coming soon, or may not be coming soon - nobody knows for sure
QQQ which tracks the 100 largest Nasdaq companies lost about 33% in 2022 and about 42% in 2008
it lost about 36% in 2000, about 33% in 2001 and about 38% in 2002___________ouch!!!
after those big drops it has had some huge years - + 50% in 2003, +55% in 2009, + 37% in 2013, + 39% in 2019, +48 % in 2020 + 54% in 2023
the S&P 500 also had large drops in the years mentioned but not as large as in the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
no guarantees of course, but the broader markets have always come back stronger after big drops
.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/QQQ/performance/
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"anyone who has already lost a fortune has made poor decisions" That's a circular argument and you are retrofitting it.You can make a positive expectation bet and lose, obviously, doesn't make it a poor decision because of the absolute result.
Diversification is fine and all but if you limiting your compound growth it isn't always optimal, especially with less risk-averse utility.
Quote: DougGanderQuote: lilredroosterQuote: DougGanderIf you were actually investing then you would know many people in many asset classes have already lost fortunes.
anyone who has already lost a fortune has made poor decisions (assuming they don't have other fortunes elsewhere in the market)
the essence of successful investing is diversification -
the Nasdaq has only lost about 1% year to date and the S&P 500 is still up by a tiny % ytd; and the Dow is also up a tiny % ytd
of course, a big drop may be coming soon, or may not be coming soon - nobody knows for sure
QQQ which tracks the 100 largest Nasdaq companies lost about 33% in 2022 and about 42% in 2008
it lost about 36% in 2000, about 33% in 2001 and about 38% in 2002___________ouch!!!
after those big drops it has had some huge years - + 50% in 2003, +55% in 2009, + 37% in 2013, + 39% in 2019, +48 % in 2020 + 54% in 2023
the S&P 500 also had large drops in the years mentioned but not as large as in the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
no guarantees of course, but the broader markets have always come back stronger after big drops
.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/QQQ/performance/
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"anyone who has already lost a fortune has made poor decisions" That's a circular argument and you are retrofitting it.You can make a positive expectation bet and lose, obviously, doesn't make it a poor decision because of the absolute result.
Diversification is fine and all but if you limiting your compound growth it isn't always optimal, especially with less risk-averse utility.
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I'd have to know the circumstances, but losing a fortune on the stock market over the last few years would require either horrible money management or being cursed. Just find that unicorn and bet against him.
Quote: billryan
I'd have to know the circumstances, but losing a fortune on the stock market over the last few years would require either horrible money management or being cursed. Just find that unicorn and bet against him.
The broad stock market indices, yes. There are many other investor types that have been ruined in the last few days.
The problem with stock market indices is dealt with in Taleb's "Black Swans". Say you go back to the time of Carthage. Some people are saying the Romans will invade. You hear all these speeches about how Carthage has endured everything and has a great destiny because it invented the war elephant or something.....then the Romans burn your city down.
That scenario and those speeches and that logic played out in some form in every empire ever. That might be the US within a month. You don't know. Empires exist until they don't. Maybe the US persists for a long time but the correct way to predict that is not to use self-fulfilling circular logic about how the empire hasn't fallen yet so it can't fall.
Quote: DougGander
Maybe the US persists for a long time but the correct way to predict that is not to use self-fulfilling circular logic about how the empire hasn't fallen yet so it can't fall.
I'm going to keep doing what I've done for decades which has been profitable
I would never say it can't fail (or the U.S. can't fall)
but I think it's highly unlikely
if I'm wrong I will shed no tears
there are no guarantees in investing
there is the probable and the improbable
I always bet on the probable
Quote: DougGanderThe problem with stock market indices is dealt with in Taleb's "Black Swans".
Taleb wrote a book on investing which is highly regarded
as are many other books on investing which offer different ideas and recommendations
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Quote: lilredroosterQuote: DougGander
Maybe the US persists for a long time but the correct way to predict that is not to use self-fulfilling circular logic about how the empire hasn't fallen yet so it can't fall.
I'm going to keep doing what I've done for decades which has been profitable
I would never say it can't fail (or the U.S. can't fall)
but I think it's highly unlikely
if I'm wrong I will shed no tears
there are no guarantees in investing
there is the probable and the improbable
I always bet on the probableQuote: DougGanderThe problem with stock market indices is dealt with in Taleb's "Black Swans".
Taleb wrote a book on investing which is highly regarded
as are dozens of other books on investing which offer different ideas and recommendations
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Investors generally favor positive expected returns over something with a high probability. For example you can play a martingale at roulette and have a very high session win probability if you have a decent bankroll. But most people don't consider it a good idea. Investing in the broad stock market indices is similar to that if you aren't making any assessment of the risk probabilities.
The problem with investing is that eventually you are going to hit a long losing streak with mathematical certainty.
I would imagine the balance of probabilities are still against us hegemony collapsing. But this is absolutely not the same as prior threat scenarios. Unless the Strait Of Hormuz re-opens the global economy will essentially be destroyed within a few months. This is worse than the Bay Of Pigs scenario because neither actor is rational. There is no obvious way out of that.
Quote: billryanLongterm bitcoin holders have lost a fortune on paper.
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Yes, but they have also made a huge fortune. $1000 invested in Bitcoin in 2010 is now currently worth over $800 million.
Quote: DRichQuote: billryanLongterm bitcoin holders have lost a fortune on paper.
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Yes, but they have also made a huge fortune. $1000 invested in Bitcoin in 2010 is now currently worth over $800 million.
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Anyone who has held those bitcoins since 2010 has lost about $700 million in the last few months.
Quote: billryanQuote: DRichQuote: billryanLongterm bitcoin holders have lost a fortune on paper.
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Yes, but they have also made a huge fortune. $1000 invested in Bitcoin in 2010 is now currently worth over $800 million.
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Anyone who has held those bitcoins since 2010 has lost about $700 million in the last few months.
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How upset would you be if you invested $1000, didn't cash it out for $1.5 billion, and settled for selling for $800 million. I would not be upset.
Quote: DRichQuote: billryanQuote: DRichQuote: billryanLongterm bitcoin holders have lost a fortune on paper.
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Yes, but they have also made a huge fortune. $1000 invested in Bitcoin in 2010 is now currently worth over $800 million.
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Anyone who has held those bitcoins since 2010 has lost about $700 million in the last few months.
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How upset would you be if you invested $1000, didn't cash it out for $1.5 billion, and settled for selling for $800 million. I would not be upset.
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I agree with you that the downturn in bitcoin is statistically minor relative to its growth.
That said I think I would not be very happy if I lost $700 million. It is not entirely rational perhaps even kinda stupid, but people value wealth according to their initial fortune, so once you just adjusted to a high net worth you would stop thinking about money like an ordinary Joe.
you don't lose money till you sell itQuote: DougGanderQuote: AutomaticMonkeyOh, the Panicans are at it again. But I don't mind, I pick up the stuff they put on sale.
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If you were actually investing then you would know many people in many asset classes have already lost fortunes.
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Do I need to point out we aren't even in a Bear Market yet?
Quote: odiousgambityou don't lose money till you sell itQuote: DougGanderQuote: AutomaticMonkeyOh, the Panicans are at it again. But I don't mind, I pick up the stuff they put on sale.
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If you were actually investing then you would know many people in many asset classes have already lost fortunes.
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Do I need to point out we aren't even in a Bear Market yet?
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Well you can hold through a depression if you can afford to, but most won't be able to.
I'm seriously wondering how some users of this forum get their information. Do you not understand the dangers of what is going on here?
The Iranians have the capability and the will to shut down the global oil supply, destroy AI data centers and if they chose, shut down the entire electricity supply system for the whole of the US and other nations. Something actually has to change for those things NOT to happen. You have to broker some kind of deal with them which both sides are ruling out. If that deal does NOT occur you are looking at an unprecedented financial cataclysm. That's at most a couple of months away. Gas becomes unaffordable, food prices rise exponentially. It will affect everyone.
Quote: DougGander
I'm seriously wondering how some users of this forum get their information. Do you not understand the dangers of what is going on here?
The Iranians have the capability and the will to shut down the global oil supply, destroy AI data centers and if they chose, shut down the entire electricity supply system for the whole of the US and other nations. Something actually has to change for those things NOT to happen. You have to broker some kind of deal with them which both sides are ruling out. If that deal does NOT occur you are looking at an unprecedented financial cataclysm. That's at most a couple of months away. Gas becomes unaffordable, food prices rise exponentially. It will affect everyone.
no way
this is alarmist catastrophizing
Iran's ability do do damage will be eroded, and almost totally eliminated by their being on the receiving end of powerful attacks
and investing wisely is not like a martingale
not even close
posting that it is is just more alarmist catastrophising
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For people unable to emotionally handle it, I recommend not investing money in stocks unless that money can hold out 10 years, which is totally safe from loss if you dollar cost averaged your way to the start of a bad bear market. For hardier types 5 years is reasonable risk, and if you diversify you never lose it all.Quote: DougGanderWell you can hold through a depression if you can afford to, but most won't be able to.
I'm pretty sure I know where you get yours.Quote:I'm seriously wondering how some users of this forum get their information.
Wow! Even if nuclear war starts and these things happen, I don't see Iran pulling it off. Iran? Really?Quote:Do you not understand the dangers of what is going on here?
The Iranians have the capability and the will to shut down the global oil supply, destroy AI data centers and if they chose, shut down the entire electricity supply system for the whole of the US and other nations.
Who here is saying they aren't concerned? If the strait of Hormuz is shut longterm, we will have oil shortages and it'll go up to $150+ ... hardships will occur, yes. I'm concerned the US and Israel are overoptimistic that they can make Iran lose all military capability , not that that regime didn't have what's happening coming. I predict your thoughts will prove to be hyperbole, nor do I rule out a good outcome in all this.Quote:Something actually has to change for those things NOT to happen. You have to broker some kind of deal with them which both sides are ruling out. If that deal does NOT occur you are looking at an unprecedented financial cataclysm. That's at most a couple of months away. Gas becomes unaffordable, food prices rise exponentially. It will affect everyone.
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Quote: lilredroosterQuote: DougGander
I'm seriously wondering how some users of this forum get their information. Do you not understand the dangers of what is going on here?
The Iranians have the capability and the will to shut down the global oil supply, destroy AI data centers and if they chose, shut down the entire electricity supply system for the whole of the US and other nations. Something actually has to change for those things NOT to happen. You have to broker some kind of deal with them which both sides are ruling out. If that deal does NOT occur you are looking at an unprecedented financial cataclysm. That's at most a couple of months away. Gas becomes unaffordable, food prices rise exponentially. It will affect everyone.
no way
this is alarmist catastrophizing
Iran's ability do do damage will be eroded, and almost totally eliminated by their being on the receiving end of powerful attacks
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You are so far off-base with this you might as well be out of the stadium.
I'm going to explain this once. Pay very close attention to what I'm saying. You do not need missiles, a navy, an air force to close the Strait of Hormuz as a practical matter. You need the credible threat that you can attack shipping with drones or explosives, you don't even need to actually do it. That is all. Even if the probability were only 5% it makes insurance premiums unaffordable and shipping will dramatically slow down.
Dropping bombs on 87 year old men or schoolgirls does not stop that from happening. Even if the entire Iranian missile network was destroyed (much of it is in sealed underground bunkers out of bombing range) that won't remove the drone threat, the danger to data centers or the electricity grid which can be destroyed by small teams of Iranian intelligence or its proxies. You are not going to kill 90 million Iranians by dropping stuff on people however good it makes you feel.
The only way out of this is some kind of compromise. There is NO military solution here. I would still expect that to happen, but it is far from certain.
You need to understand we do not have a simple difference of opinion here. You are dangerously, worryingly misinformed by pictures of stuff being blown up, which has absolutely no relevance to the potential danger.
Also, Iran is truly finished if they can't sell their oil, 90% of which goes through Hormuz. The Goreh-Jask pipeline can be destroyed for the rest
Quote: odiousgambitI don't want to sound ignorant, naive or reckless and foolhardy, but closing the strait of Hormuz would not be the end of the world. As I said, I'm concerned that Israel and the US are everestimating their abilities, and if the strait of Hormuz stays closed that will mean our fears have been realized, and it will suck. But not the end of the world
Also, Iran is truly finished if they can't sell their oil, 90% of which goes through Hormuz. The Goreh-Jask pipeline can be destroyed for the rest
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No, not the end of the world, unless there are secondary and tertiary impacts on global conflicts elsewhere. It could be the beginning of the end of the world.
But it is unlikely global capitalism would survive this in its modern form and it would take decades to recover. There would be a very severe impact on tech stocks in particular which is what is keeping the US economy afloat.
