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AcesAndEights
AcesAndEights
Joined: Jan 5, 2012
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January 9th, 2020 at 10:22:07 AM permalink
SOOPOO, if you are still looking for a new position, I would like to selfishly recommend my current employer, W

We are a growth play without net income yet in our public history, but lots of revenue growth. Kind of like the early days of AMZN, except I don't think we'll have an AWS-type story to bring us to profitability. It will have to be on retail alone. Just don't google for Andrew Left's commentary :P

Not in your wheelhouse at all (no dividend), but if diversity is the name of the game, then here is some.
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
DRich
DRich
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
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January 9th, 2020 at 10:37:50 AM permalink
Quote: AcesAndEights

SOOPOO, if you are still looking for a new position, I would like to selfishly recommend my current employer, W

We are a growth play without net income yet in our public history, but lots of revenue growth. Kind of like the early days of AMZN, except I don't think we'll have an AWS-type story to bring us to profitability. It will have to be on retail alone. Just don't google for Andrew Left's commentary :P

Not in your wheelhouse at all (no dividend), but if diversity is the name of the game, then here is some.



What do you think will bring them to profitability? The economy is strong now and no profitability, do you see it getting stronger under poorer economic conditions?
Order from chaos
AcesAndEights
AcesAndEights
Joined: Jan 5, 2012
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January 9th, 2020 at 10:55:00 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

What do you think will bring them to profitability? The economy is strong now and no profitability, do you see it getting stronger under poorer economic conditions?


I could talk for hours about stuff our CEOs have said in response to this question, but most of it is confidential. Broadly we are in a good position to cut spending if necessary, mostly on advertising; the big question is what that will do to our revenue and new customer acquisition rate. And also broadly speaking, the home goods category tends to weather recessions better than other sectors.

Rumor has it that we were profitable before we went public, but the numbers from those years aren't public. The story goes that with easy investor money out there, leadership has ramped up focus on growth. Another data point, the US business is close to breakeven/a bit profitable. Most of the US profits are currently going into EU expansion (this is public knowledge).

There are plenty of red flags and I'm not a company homer, in fact I sell most of the shares I get as compensation. I keep a few, because I worked at Amazon from 2006-2010 and sold all of my AMZN shares at prices between $50 and $170. It is absolutely the rational position to not hold stock in your own employer, which is why I sell most of them. But my AMZN experience has given me a ton of FOMO in this regard, so I hold on to enough that if we blow up, I'll at least be part of the party.

I wouldn't try to sell the stock to an average investor. But since SOOPOO has this grand experiment going on, I think it would make a good component.
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
DRich
DRich
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
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January 9th, 2020 at 12:25:36 PM permalink
Quote: AcesAndEights

I could talk for hours about stuff our CEOs have said in response to this question, but most of it is confidential. Broadly we are in a good position to cut spending if necessary, mostly on advertising; the big question is what that will do to our revenue and new customer acquisition rate. And also broadly speaking, the home goods category tends to weather recessions better than other sectors.

Rumor has it that we were profitable before we went public, but the numbers from those years aren't public. The story goes that with easy investor money out there, leadership has ramped up focus on growth. Another data point, the US business is close to breakeven/a bit profitable. Most of the US profits are currently going into EU expansion (this is public knowledge).

There are plenty of red flags and I'm not a company homer, in fact I sell most of the shares I get as compensation. I keep a few, because I worked at Amazon from 2006-2010 and sold all of my AMZN shares at prices between $50 and $170. It is absolutely the rational position to not hold stock in your own employer, which is why I sell most of them. But my AMZN experience has given me a ton of FOMO in this regard, so I hold on to enough that if we blow up, I'll at least be part of the party.

I wouldn't try to sell the stock to an average investor. But since SOOPOO has this grand experiment going on, I think it would make a good component.



Thank you, and I understand the confidentiality involved.

When wil Amazon be buying you?
Order from chaos
AcesAndEights
AcesAndEights
Joined: Jan 5, 2012
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January 9th, 2020 at 12:43:54 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

When wil Amazon be buying you?


LOL, I think we're too big/expensive. More likely they will try to put us out of business. So far, they haven't really gone to war.

That being said, stockholders (including myself as noted) would make out great I'm sure. So I wouldn't be upset if it happened. Also I happened to like working for Amazon, so I wouldn't be opposed to doing it again as part of an acquisition.
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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January 13th, 2020 at 4:44:48 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Ended up buying BTI at $38.8. I don't understand why it is trading that low. At 38.8 it is paying 7% dividend, and has a pretty low PE ratio of around 11. Its a big company with a long history. Occasionally when I make an analysis I am missing something and it comes back to bite me! Time will tell.



It's a month and only up 17%! Lagging behind my Tesla! The NBEV shot up today, was up like 30% at one point because....... Kendall Jenner drinks them..... Went from 1.60 to 2.35 then fell back to 1.90. It's what I hate about the stock market. Ridiculous over reactions both ways.

Up 71%. Probably buy a few more bonds for safety. Also put a tad more in the private equity REITs. I'll be in Vegas in a few days. Why does a $100 win in Vegas just feel better than a $10k upswing in the portfolio?

Edit. I don't have any cash right now to pick stocks. Wayfair lost nearly a $billion last year? I'll consider it next time I plan to buy a stock.
DRich
DRich
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
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January 14th, 2020 at 3:26:57 PM permalink
My Six Flags stock is down about 25% in the last week. Ouch!
Order from chaos
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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January 28th, 2020 at 8:45:47 AM permalink
I bought a very small position in NIO. I did so because my wife's daughter suggested it. I got it at $4.17. She suggested it when it was $3.70. She liked the way the prototype looked, and also felt that Chinese companies are the wave of the future. The other stock I bought on her recommendation was SNAP. Its been pretty flat since I bought it, up a few percent.

Portfolio now up 70% after big drop yesterday.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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February 4th, 2020 at 1:55:11 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

I bought a very small position in NIO. I did so because my wife's daughter suggested it. I got it at $4.17. She suggested it when it was $3.70. She liked the way the prototype looked, and also felt that Chinese companies are the wave of the future. The other stock I bought on her recommendation was SNAP. Its been pretty flat since I bought it, up a few percent.

Portfolio now up 70% after big drop yesterday.



NIO up 11% today. Now 4.51

Of note I had 61 shares of Tesla. Has around DOUBLED the past week. Sold 11 shares today at $940. I like owning an even number of shares.
It makes no sense, actually. They make cars. And they don't sell that many.

I like concept of BTI. Now 44.74. They sell cigarettes. They sell enough to make a big profit. Price makes sense to me.

Portfolio now up 73% since inception.
Paradigm
Paradigm
Joined: Feb 24, 2011
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February 4th, 2020 at 4:43:39 PM permalink
SOOPOO, do you have any MGP in the portfolio? It is an income play via a REIT that holds mostly MGM International Casino Resort properties that it leases back to MGM. Built in rent rate increases on specialized resort property, a 5.7% dividend, it seems like pretty good real estate to own in an Amazon/Internet age.

Earnings on 2/14, hoping it breaks through $34 this quarter on earnings or current momentum.

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