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100xOdds
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April 4th, 2025 at 10:56:34 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

the market can't seem to find the bottom

I've gone from cautiously buying some etfs I wanted to where I'm stepping it up. Cautiously might still be the right word, and I expect to hold anything I'm buying for over 5 years. So I'm not predicting the bottom , but the risk of still being in the toilet from more than 5 years I feel is low
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So when to buy?
when the market is up 5% from the bloodbath low?
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
odiousgambit
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April 4th, 2025 at 11:13:31 AM permalink
use the 'dollar cost averaging' method

at first you buy perhaps cautiously, start now

if the market keeps going down, you keep buying

if the market keeps going down, you keep buying

if the market keeps going down, you keep buying

etc,etc

this method can only fail to succeed if the bottom is never found, assuming you don't run out of money. That is a matter of being able to believe reasonable behavior in the market vis a vis the money you have to spend. Yes, right now is challenging, for instance I'm thinking it won't go down 50% .

This has paid off in the past very well. If this time is an exception I'll have to eat crow
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
odiousgambit
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April 4th, 2025 at 11:20:27 AM permalink
I wait and wait for these kinds of opportunities

nonetheless I always find it quite harrowing to go through this. Who can fail to notice what a huge chunk of $$$ has vanished from the portfolio? At my age it's not impossible that it will never get back to where it was in my lifetime.

I predict the opposite, that the buying I'm doing now will make me smile soon enough. But there are no guarantees
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
AutomaticMonkey
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April 4th, 2025 at 11:56:58 AM permalink
It all seems a little fake, and performative.

Why would the market crash after tariffs come into effect, when we knew about the tariffs for a long time?

It almost seems as if some very large players, who do not like the tariffs for their own reasons, are trying to make the US public not like them too.
billryan
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April 4th, 2025 at 12:34:06 PM permalink
It seems the people thought someone would rein in the man and not kick off a global trade war just as the world was recovering from COVID-19.
My favorite brand of shirt is made in Vietnam. The company moved there from China as a result of the anti-Chinese tone of the last few administrations. Textiles from Vietnam are now subject to a 46% tariff. My shirts retail for $69-$89 a pop, but I buy when they have their quarterly sales, so I pay about $50. Most high-end American shirtmakers don't go after the XXL+ market.
My knockaround shirts come from JCPenney and are made in Jordan. My Jeans are HB(?) and made in Pakistan.

Happiest phrase in the world-- "And this too shall pass." It's a good time to load up on brown pants.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
SOOPOO
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April 4th, 2025 at 12:49:38 PM permalink
Well I finally looked at it. I had made it to +199%. As I type this it’s +161%.

In easy to understand terms, it’s down around 13% from its peak.

Rice and beans tonight.
AutomaticMonkey
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April 4th, 2025 at 12:57:00 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

It seems the people thought someone would rein in the man and not kick off a global trade war just as the world was recovering from COVID-19.
My favorite brand of shirt is made in Vietnam. The company moved there from China as a result of the anti-Chinese tone of the last few administrations. Textiles from Vietnam are now subject to a 46% tariff. My shirts retail for $69-$89 a pop, but I buy when they have their quarterly sales, so I pay about $50. Most high-end American shirtmakers don't go after the XXL+ market.
My knockaround shirts come from JCPenney and are made in Jordan. My Jeans are HB(?) and made in Pakistan.

Happiest phrase in the world-- "And this too shall pass." It's a good time to load up on brown pants.
link to original post



I don't see it as a trade war, but an opportunity for a trade detente. As you saw on the chart, the tariffs the US is levying are in all cases equal to or less than the tariffs and comparable restrictions levied on the US that we've been paying all along, in those unusual cases where we actually manufacture and export something. Being those other countries are a lot more dependent on export they will have to negotiate before we do. Negotiation is only available to those who have war as an alternative, in all cases, and unconditional surrender is demanded of those who do not. We had training on this in the schoolyard.

Best place for large & long shirts now is Cabela's/Bass Pro. Excellent quality and selection, and I find them to be quite a bit less expensive and more demographically appropriate than DXL.
lilredrooster
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April 4th, 2025 at 1:18:57 PM permalink
.
the U.S. exported $3.05 Trillion in goods and services in 2023
the goods and services deficit was $773.4 Billion in 2023
top export destinations - Canada, Mexico, China, Germany and Japan
top exports - Crude Petroleum, Refined Petroleum, Petroleum Gas, Gas Turbines and Cars

the U.S. stands as a major global exporter ranking 2nd only to China whose population is more than 4 times as large as that of the U.S.

U.S. exports represent about 10% of our Gross Domestic Product

.
https://www.statista.com/topics/1715/us-export/#topicOverview

https://www.google.com/search?q=what+is+the+value+of+all+u.s.+exports&oq=what+is+the+value+of+all+u.s.+exports&aqs=chrome..69i57j0i22i30j0i390i512i650l3j0i546i649j0i512i546j0i751l2.9064j1j15&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8&sei=QTzwZ72OH8mo5NoPzP222A0

.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
AutomaticMonkey
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April 4th, 2025 at 1:47:43 PM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

.
the U.S. exported $3.05 Trillion in goods and services in 2023
the goods and services deficit was $773.4 Billion in 2023
top export destinations - Canada, Mexico, China, Germany and Japan
top exports - Crude Petroleum, Refined Petroleum, Petroleum Gas, Gas Turbines and Cars

the U.S. stands as a major global exporter ranking 2nd only to China whose population is more than 4 times as large as that of the U.S.

U.S. exports represent about 10% of our Gross Domestic Product

.
https://www.statista.com/topics/1715/us-export/#topicOverview

https://www.google.com/search?q=what+is+the+value+of+all+u.s.+exports&oq=what+is+the+value+of+all+u.s.+exports&aqs=chrome..69i57j0i22i30j0i390i512i650l3j0i546i649j0i512i546j0i751l2.9064j1j15&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8&sei=QTzwZ72OH8mo5NoPzP222A0

.
link to original post



How does one export services?

Commodities (energy, food) are in a different category than manufactured goods, as there is no "Made in USA" label on a grain of corn or a gallon of oil and what ends up in a pipeline or storage facility could have come from anywhere and is often commingled with things that came from everywhere. Gold is a commodity and if I buy a bar of that, it may have been tested and stamped and whatever else they do to it in Switzerland but the gold itself came from the natural deposits of many countries.
lilredrooster
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April 4th, 2025 at 2:00:49 PM permalink
.
I shouldn't have included service exports in the post which includes products or activities that are not physical goods such as consulting, education or banking from one country to another

taking out the services exports the U.S. exported $2.06 Trillion worth of goods in 2023 - a new record - again, the U.S. is the 2nd largest exporter of goods in the world behind China

AI overview:

https://www.google.com/search?q=what+amount+of+u.s.+goods+are+exported&oq=what+amount+of+u.s.+goods+are+exported&aqs=chrome..69i57j0i22i30j0i390i512i650l3j0i512i546j0i751j0i512i546l3.7736j1j15&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
100xOdds
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April 4th, 2025 at 7:13:21 PM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

use the 'dollar cost averaging' method

at first you buy perhaps cautiously, start now

if the market keeps going down, you keep buying

if the market keeps going down, you keep buying

if the market keeps going down, you keep buying

etc,etc

this method can only fail to succeed if the bottom is never found, assuming you don't run out of money. That is a matter of being able to believe reasonable behavior in the market vis a vis the money you have to spend. Yes, right now is challenging, for instance I'm thinking it won't go down 50% .

This has paid off in the past very well. If this time is an exception I'll have to eat crow
link to original post


That's catching a falling knife.
Also, when's the 2nd and subsequent buys? every 5% drop? 10% drop?
Last edited by: 100xOdds on Apr 5, 2025
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
billryan
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April 4th, 2025 at 7:28:42 PM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

Quote: odiousgambit

use the 'dollar cost averaging' method

at first you buy perhaps cautiously, start now

if the market keeps going down, you keep buying

if the market keeps going down, you keep buying

if the market keeps going down, you keep buying

etc,etc

this method can only fail to succeed if the bottom is never found, assuming you don't run out of money. That is a matter of being able to believe reasonable behavior in the market vis a vis the money you have to spend. Yes, right now is challenging, for instance I'm thinking it won't go down 50% .

This has paid off in the past very well. If this time is an exception I'll have to eat crow
link to original post


That's catching a falling knife.
Also, when's the 2nd and subsequent buy? every 5% drop? 10% drop?
link to original post



You should be investing regularly, regardless of how the market is doing at the moment. You are investing long-term. Invest your $50 or $500 every paycheck and in the end you'll be fine.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
DrawingDead
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April 4th, 2025 at 7:44:24 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Rice and beans tonight.
link to original post

In the midst of this kind of extreme market volatility of uncertain duration and indeterminate scope: Don’t just do something; sit there.

Warren Buffett defended his massive $300 billion cash pile in February. Now he doesn't have to.

I may have a little bit less capital involved than Berkshire/Buffet’s accounts, but since beginning a slow gradual defensive rebalance about a year ago, in anticipation of what I believed to be an inevitable liquidity contraction (essential bubble deflation after massive unsustainable Fed fiscal meth injection & virus-welfare schemes with money flows boosting ludicrous meme trash & assorted scammy spec crap) I’ve gotten my brokerage positions to the point that I’m over 56% in securities that are functional equivalents of hoarding (moderately income producing) cash, through ETFs specializing in holding highly liquid CLOs (collateralized loan obligations) in ultra short-term debt instruments with first dibs on real assets at the top of the food chain, with near zero default or duration risk. Including those I’ve mentioned here before as cash ‘parking places’ in FLOT, FLRN, FLTR, as well as others (listed in no particular order) such as JAAA, JPST, MINT, VNLA, VRIG. Doing so came at the opportunity cost of not fully benefiting from the last bit of the final leg of the peak of the tidal money supply flow. And I’m good with that. Because the business cycle has not been repealed; nor has gravity.

I look forward to cashing out of those 5-6% yielding parking place instruments during another great buying opportunity for equities, perhaps as potentially rewarding as "we're all gonna die!" in March 2020 (S&P-500 touched 2488), if maybe not quite as spectacular of a value as the “OMFG the world is ending today!” of March 2009 (S&P-500 at 666), with LVS (Las Vegas Sands) for example briefly trading at $1.50/share because “casino bidness doomed!” For my 43% remaining in a variety of equities, I am vigorously doing nothing. Sell low is not the plan. I’m sure y’all will be gratified to know that I’m warm, comfy, and serenely confident that the time to (somewhat less gradually) begin my buying binge will be coming. But this is not that time. Because the sky is falling! And surely ChumpChange will soon have a YouTube about the imminent apocalypse! Doom approaches! But hasn’t arrived.

Don’t just do something; sit there.

EDIT to add:
Quote: billryan

...<SNIP>...

You should be investing regularly, regardless of how the market is doing at the moment. You are investing long-term. Invest your $50 or $500 every paycheck and in the end you'll be fine.
link to original post

^But in general I think that's very good advice, a sound plan. Better for most than what I choose to do.
Last edited by: DrawingDead on Apr 4, 2025
Nothing to read here. Move along.
odiousgambit
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April 5th, 2025 at 4:06:12 AM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

Quote: odiousgambit

use the 'dollar cost averaging' method ...



That's catching a falling knife.

I've been able to grab it on the handle end so far, but I admitted this time I might have to eat crow. So that's my defense for anyone saying I'm not qualified to give advice
Quote:

Also, when's the 2nd and subsequent buy? every 5% drop? 10% drop?

generally I use 5%

For further disclaimer, you should only be buying in these conditions if you need to rebalance. Thinking of this as a market timing opportunity is all wrong. Furthermore, in spite of the dramatic decline in a short period of time, the market hasn't gone down enough to get all that excited about buying rebalancing. The S&P 500 has gone back to where it was in February of last year, and using the 1 yr history chart google finance provides, that says the 500 is down 2.5% for the one year period ... my rebalancing has been modest so far.

Further-furthermore, Bill Ryan is right to say that the dollar-cost averaging is more properly explained as buying on a regular basis rather than what I'm describing ... obviously cost-averaging of that type is for people such as those using earned income in retirement programs etc. I'm borrowing the idea for a rebalancing method, which maybe an expert would want to criticize. Drawing Dead is not wrong either to say what he did, I would say that he is speaking to someone who doesn't need to rebalance is all .

Lastly, you have to realize I am plagued with having been too conservative with my investing. I look back at when I started and in all my heavy investing periods and go, wow, I bought too much in balanced funds and bonds then, I should have just bought stocks primarily. The need to rebalance for me should be the opposite of what it actually is now

link to original post
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
DRich
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April 5th, 2025 at 4:58:54 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Well I finally looked at it. I had made it to +199%. As I type this it’s +161%.

In easy to understand terms, it’s down around 13% from its peak.

Rice and beans tonight.
link to original post



Rice and beans for dinner, Dave Ramsey's favorite saying.

If the markets are down 10%-15% it just clearly shows that double zero roulette is the better play.
You can't know everything, but you can know anything.
lilredrooster
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April 5th, 2025 at 5:39:21 AM permalink
.
I'm not selling anything - I'm about 80% invested in the market - not buying either -
I keep telling myself "it will come back it always does"
but I can't shake the feeling that this time it's different for obvious reasons
selling during a downturn is just not my way

I am trying to resign myself to the fact that before this I was in good shape financially and that may no longer be the case

like many, I really have no idea what will happen - the uncertainty is what is so difficult to handle

.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
DRich
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April 5th, 2025 at 5:48:10 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

.
I'm not selling anything - I'm about 80% invested in the market - not buying either -
I keep telling myself "it will come back it always does"
but I can't shake the feeling that this time it's different for obvious reasons
selling during a downturn is just not my way

I am trying to resign myself to the fact that before this I was in good shape financially and that may no longer be the case

like many, I really have no idea what will happen - the uncertainty is what is so difficult to handle

.
link to original post



I am looking at buying a few stocks, they just happen to be the same ones I was considering buying before the downturn. If they had value at $X I think they have more value at $X-20%
You can't know everything, but you can know anything.
billryan
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April 5th, 2025 at 6:04:14 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: SOOPOO

Well I finally looked at it. I had made it to +199%. As I type this it’s +161%.

In easy to understand terms, it’s down around 13% from its peak.

Rice and beans tonight.
link to original post



Rice and beans for dinner, Dave Ramsey's favorite saying.

If the markets are down 10%-15% it just clearly shows that double zero roulette is the better play.
link to original post



If you like a stock enough to buy it at 50, you should love buying it at 40.
Why do people rush into Harbor Freight when they have a 20% off sale but flee when Wall Street goes on sale?
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
billryan
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April 5th, 2025 at 6:06:09 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: lilredrooster

.
I'm not selling anything - I'm about 80% invested in the market - not buying either -
I keep telling myself "it will come back it always does"
but I can't shake the feeling that this time it's different for obvious reasons
selling during a downturn is just not my way

I am trying to resign myself to the fact that before this I was in good shape financially and that may no longer be the case

like many, I really have no idea what will happen - the uncertainty is what is so difficult to handle

.
link to original post



I am looking at buying a few stocks, they just happen to be the same ones I was considering buying before the downturn. If they had value at $X I think they have more value at $X-20%
link to original post



Egg-xact-lee. Good stocks on sale make great investments. Shit stocks on sale make shit stocks on sale.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
DrawingDead
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April 6th, 2025 at 8:18:25 PM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

.
I'm not selling anything - I'm about 80% invested in the market - not buying either -
I keep telling myself "it will come back it always does"
but I can't shake the feeling that this time it's different for obvious reasons
selling during a downturn is just not my way

I am trying to resign myself to the fact that before this I was in good shape financially and that may no longer be the case

like many, I really have no idea what will happen - the uncertainty is what is so difficult to handle

.
link to original post


A perspicacious professional's perspective to ponder:

https://babylonbee.com/news/financial-advisor-announces-its-time-to-panic-urges-clients-to-make-hasty-emotional-decisions

Quote:

"What are you doing sitting there?? Buy! Sell! Panic!"

Last edited by: DrawingDead on Apr 6, 2025
Nothing to read here. Move along.
billryan
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April 7th, 2025 at 3:05:58 AM permalink
It might have been Teddy Roosevelt who gave us the immortal words- When the going gets tough, the tough go shopping.

Or perhaps he retweeted it.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
100xOdds
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odiousgambit
April 7th, 2025 at 5:01:29 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

It might have been Teddy Roosevelt who gave us the immortal words- When the going gets tough, the tough go shopping.

Or perhaps he retweeted it.
link to original post


Dow futures are down another 800pts this morning.
yeah, will spend a few $ this afternoon

edit:
Looked into my brokerage acct.
The reinvested quarterly dividends from my index fund i'm about to buy more of is almost the same as today's buy order.
So i am dollar cost averaging 4x per year.
lol
Last edited by: 100xOdds on Apr 7, 2025
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
DRich
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April 7th, 2025 at 1:13:19 PM permalink
I looked today and one of my individual investment stocks is down $45,000 from last year. No, I am not planning selling but I did consider selling last year but of course I didn't. I rarely sell stocks.
You can't know everything, but you can know anything.
odiousgambit
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April 7th, 2025 at 1:57:34 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

I looked today and one of my individual investment stocks is down $45,000 from last year. No, I am not planning selling but I did consider selling last year but of course I didn't. I rarely sell stocks.
link to original post

I wouldn't kick myself unless it was obvious you needed to rebalance, or just 'had too much in one stock' and should have diversified

stocks seem to be considering finding the bottom now
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
DRich
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April 7th, 2025 at 2:17:46 PM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

Quote: DRich

I looked today and one of my individual investment stocks is down $45,000 from last year. No, I am not planning selling but I did consider selling last year but of course I didn't. I rarely sell stocks.
link to original post

I wouldn't kick myself unless it was obvious you needed to rebalance, or just 'had too much in one stock' and should have diversified

stocks seem to be considering finding the bottom now
link to original post



Thanks, I am not concerned. I look at stocks like I do advantage gambling. You can win or lose in the short term but in the long term should be up.
You can't know everything, but you can know anything.
AutomaticMonkey
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April 7th, 2025 at 2:52:27 PM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit


...
stocks seem to be considering finding the bottom now
link to original post



It's been compared to watching a bunch of little kids play soccer. They all run to where the ball is, wherever it goes, without much thought of where it is going to go next.

I was watching the overnight action, Asia and US futures, and people seem to be saying oh no, China markets getting hammered, US markets will too in the morning.

Well OK, someone hasn't been paying attention to the underlying conflict affecting the markets. Perhaps it is some very large concerns that are just as heavily invested in China as the US, doing what they can to roil the US market trying to intimidate the US into backing off of tariffs.

I am not a poker pro, but I do know the look of someone who is slamming his chips as an alternative to showing his cards, and last week's bear had that look.
DrawingDead
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April 7th, 2025 at 4:05:00 PM permalink
Don’t do what I’m doing.

But FWIW, I find it useful to memorialize my intentions on paper (or a durable arrangement of electrons like this) to inoculate myself from temptations in all directions, by making myself look at the plan and justify a rationale for a decision to deviate from or discard it. That said, besides determining (most importantly) my individual targets in detail for particular securities of interest to me, I have specific metrics in mind to watch for across the US equities market as a whole to tell me the bell has rung and its time for me to start stuffing my shopping cart at the super-value stock mega-discount liquidation store. With or without a $1.50 Kirkland hotdog at checkout.

I’m looking for something in the mid/low 4000s (so around 4350-ish) on the cap-weighted version of the widely followed headline grabbing investor ‘mood-ring’ of the S&P 500 index, and reaching the teens for the overall average trailing PE (price/earnings) ratio, rather than the current 20s multiple. I want to see many individual bank stocks get to, or slide under, 1.0x ‘book value’. And for a spike in the VIX* to exceed 60 on a washout reversal-day of extreme panic & margin-call forced selling. Because I am greedy.

[I also have some metrics that I won't try to get into here. Stuff I consider important involving the bond market, which is larger and more rigorously priced than stock trades. Not for buying bonds but as a broad indication for markets.]

Don’t do what I’m doing.

* An explanation of VIX for non-nerds

EDIT to add:
Last edited by: DrawingDead on Apr 7, 2025
Nothing to read here. Move along.
billryan
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April 7th, 2025 at 8:38:03 PM permalink
I agree with your first sentence and wish you well with the rest of your post.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
OnceDear
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April 8th, 2025 at 2:22:18 AM permalink
Quote: DrawingDead

Don’t do what I’m doing.

But FWIW, I find it useful to memorialize my intentions on paper (or a durable arrangement of electrons like this) to inoculate myself from temptations in all directions, by making myself look at the plan and justify a rationale for a decision to deviate from or discard it. ...

Don’t do what I’m doing.

link to original post

Good luck, I'll join you with an observation of my own investments.

UK. investments have tracked the DOW down for a few days. All by about 11%. I did a little better at -6% by luck

Today we just opened up by about 1.7%, following Asia also opening up a little.

Record here that I think it's a dead cat bounce and that we'll soon be falling further. I'm not going to start topping up until I see another 5% drop from today's mini peak. Even such topping up will be modest. I'm not going 'all in' unless and until I see another 10% drop.

As to 'Dollar Cost Averaging' I see that as the Martingale of investors. It works only as long as the premise 'Markets always go up eventually' remains true.
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
100xOdds
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April 8th, 2025 at 5:32:45 AM permalink
Quote: OnceDear


As to 'Dollar Cost Averaging' I see that as the Martingale of investors.
It works only as long as the premise 'Markets always go up eventually' remains true.
link to original post


I agree with you if you have limited $ or investing in an individual stock.

But so às long as you have a job, you can dca every paycheck.
And most people use index funds in their 401k.

Hm.. another source of unlimited dca is reinvesting dividends.
And if the source of the dividends is the sp500, history has shown it always goes to up eventually
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
OnceDear
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April 8th, 2025 at 6:50:37 AM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

Quote: OnceDear


As to 'Dollar Cost Averaging' I see that as the Martingale of investors.
It works only as long as the premise 'Markets always go up eventually' remains true.
link to original post


I agree with you if you have limited $ or investing in an individual stock.

But so às long as you have a job, you can dca every paycheck.
And most people use index funds in their 401k.

Hm.. another source of unlimited dca is reinvesting dividends.
And if the source of the dividends is the sp500, history has shown it always goes to up eventually
link to original post

Thanks 100x.
Note, I'm in the UK with slightly different rules. I also only have a 2 day 'hobby' job.
Our equivalent to your 401k is a mix between a 'workplace pension' and a SIPP ( Self Invested Pension Plan)
Workplace pension can be funded by up to about 85% of paycheck, tax free and SIPP can be funded up to £3600 per year from savings and is also tax free.

Just like martingale, DCA can neither add nor detract from EV in its own right. If it could we would all be double or treble DCA'ing. It works in a market which is trending up, but then so does lump sum investing. DCA eases volatility if done progressively.
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
billryan
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April 8th, 2025 at 7:17:45 AM permalink
While it would be gfeat if we could all start with an initial investment of a million dollars, the reality is we can't. Regularly investing a portion of your income is the next best option and anyone can start it today. Dollar cost averaging is the result of regular investments.
Comparing regular investing with playing a martingale is ridiculous. One is a proven formula for success and the other is a proven strategy for failure.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
odiousgambit
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OnceDear
April 8th, 2025 at 9:49:48 AM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

[snip]
DCA can neither add nor detract from EV in its own right. If it could we would all be double or treble DCA'ing. It works in a market which is trending up, but then so does lump sum investing. DCA eases volatility if done progressively.
link to original post

the best thing about DCA is that it takes away the tendency to not invest at all because of being unsure about the market. If you had people first take cash in their 401ks and invest later as a second step, tons of people would build counterproductive piles of cash

same thing with rebalancing in a swooning market, to my taste. If I had sat around and waited until I thought the market was at the bottom, I probably would have bought nothing. DCA let's me take action without worrying about it
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
OnceDear
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April 8th, 2025 at 10:17:07 AM permalink
Could you guys tell me more about 401K's, please.

Are they generally subscribed through payroll?
Are they generally subscribed from pre-tax earnings? And then taxed at drawdown?
Can you hold cash in a 401k?
I assume dividends within the 401k are tax free?
Do holders generally just buy ready made funds within the 401K?
I assume you can use the 401k to buy an annuity, or can draw down by selling assets from it?
Is there anything equivalent to a UK SIPP, where non-earners can pay into a pension.
Does almost everyone take out a 401K?
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
billryan
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April 8th, 2025 at 10:55:40 AM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

Could you guys tell me more about 401K's, please.

Are they generally subscribed through payroll?
YES
Are they generally subscribed from pre-tax earnings? And then taxed at drawdown?
YES
Can you hold cash in a 401k?
YES
I assume dividends within the 401k are tax free?
YES

Do holders generally just buy ready made funds within the 401K?
That is one option.
I assume you can use the 401k to buy an annuity, or can draw down by selling assets from it?
There are penalties for taking money out before your late 50s. Between the penalty and the taxes, you lose well over 40% so it's a poor option. There are a few exceptionsthat allow early withdrawal.
Is there anything equivalent to a UK SIPP, where non-earners can pay into a pension.
401K and IRAs have to be earned income
Does almost everyone take out a 401K?
No. The lower your income, the less likely to participate in these plans

401Ks are offered by for profit companies. Non-profit and government workers have similar plans. not all companies offer them, but anyone with earned income can open up an Individual Retirement Account that allows for tax-deferred retirement savings.
link to original post

The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
OnceDear
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April 8th, 2025 at 11:21:41 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

Quote: OnceDear

Could you guys tell me more about 401K's, please.
I assume you can use the 401k to buy an annuity, or can draw down by selling assets from it?
There are penalties for taking money out before your late 50s.
Is there anything equivalent to a UK SIPP, where non-earners can pay into a pension.
401K and IRAs have to be earned income
Does almost everyone take out a 401K?
No. The lower your income, the less likely to participate in these plans
link to original post


link to original post

Thank you.

So, certain AP's that don't hold salaried jobs cannot get any tax benefits from pension savings?

FYI,
UK companies are now obliged to offer a defined contribution pension scheme under almost all circumstances. Many of those are pathetically minimal. I have colleagues of over 50 Years old who don't realise that when they retire, they will be stoney broke with maybe a couple of hundred pounds a month earned pension. Also, many don't realise the extent to which stock market turmoil can mess up their pension prospects.
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
billryan
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April 8th, 2025 at 11:38:57 AM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

Quote: billryan

Quote: OnceDear

Could you guys tell me more about 401K's, please.
I assume you can use the 401k to buy an annuity, or can draw down by selling assets from it?
There are penalties for taking money out before your late 50s.
Is there anything equivalent to a UK SIPP, where non-earners can pay into a pension.
401K and IRAs have to be earned income
Does almost everyone take out a 401K?
No. The lower your income, the less likely to participate in these plans
link to original post


link to original post

Thank you.

So, certain AP's that don't hold salaried jobs cannot get any tax benefits from pension savings?

FYI,
UK companies are now obliged to offer a defined contribution pension scheme under almost all circumstances. Many of those are pathetically minimal. I have colleagues of over 50 Years old who don't realise that when they retire, they will be stoney broke with maybe a couple of hundred pounds a month earned pension. Also, many don't realise the extent to which stock market turmoil can mess up their pension prospects.
link to original post



The tax code is convoluted, and it is possible for an AP to establish a business that pays him a regular salary. Establishing a limited liability corporation as a salaried employee wouldn't be difficult. That's why a good tax accountant is worth their weight in gold.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
100xOdds
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April 8th, 2025 at 12:19:37 PM permalink
Quote: OnceDear


So, certain AP's that don't hold salaried jobs cannot get any tax benefits from pension savings?

link to original post


Not many companies in the US offer pensions anymore.
Most stop new hires from participating so in effect, employees under the pension system are grandfathered.

AP's can file as pro gambler.
He can put up to 25% pre tax into a self directed 401k, which acts just like a regular 401k .

He can also put $7k post tax into a Roth IRA as long as he has earned income of at least the same amount he's putting in there
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
OnceDear
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April 8th, 2025 at 12:58:14 PM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

Quote: OnceDear


So, certain AP's that don't hold salaried jobs cannot get any tax benefits from pension savings?

link to original post


Not many companies in the US offer pensions anymore.

I take it you mean they don't offer 'defined benefit schemes? That's the sort of pension larger UK companies used to offer. Here they switched to offering defined contribution schemes, which I believe are like your 401 schemes.

Do federal employees and military still get old style defined benefit pensions? That's the case here.
Quote:


Most stop new hires from participating so in effect, employees under the pension system are grandfathered.

I think I understand that you don't class a 401k as a pension, where here we would still tend to call it a pension scheme, albeit without defined benefits.

Quote:


AP's can file as pro gambler.
He can put up to 25% pre tax into a self directed 401k, which acts just like a regular 401k .

He can also put $7k post tax into a Roth IRA as long as he has earned income of at least the same amount he's putting in there
link to original post

Thanks.
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
billryan
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April 8th, 2025 at 1:36:57 PM permalink
Most civil service jobs come with pensions, although not nearly as good as they used to be. NYPD used to offer 50% pensions after 20 years. Now, you can still retire after 20, but it takes an extra two years to get the 50% pension. Almost all government plans are now tiered, so someone who was hired fifteen years ago has a much better plan than today's hires. The Military is still 20 years for a half pay retirement.
I'd guesstimate that 75% of Americans are underfunding their retirement and are going to be in for some unpleasant surprises.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
OnceDear
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April 8th, 2025 at 3:52:51 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

Most civil service jobs come with pensions, although not nearly as good as they used to be. NYPD used to offer 50% pensions after 20 years. Now, you can still retire after 20, but it takes an extra two years to get the 50% pension. Almost all government plans are now tiered, so someone who was hired fifteen years ago has a much better plan than today's hires. The Military is still 20 years for a half pay retirement.
I'd guesstimate that 75% of Americans are underfunding their retirement and are going to be in for some unpleasant surprises.
link to original post


Thanks. I'd guestimate >75% are massively underfunding. Same over here.
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
billryan
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April 8th, 2025 at 5:34:53 PM permalink
An awful lot of my friends are supporting their parents and their children. Now, a lot of my bachelor friends are fixing up their nephews' and nieces' garages and basements or attempting the endless circle of visiting family a month at a time.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
100xOdds
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April 8th, 2025 at 6:39:55 PM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

Quote: billryan

Most civil service jobs come with pensions, although not nearly as good as they used to be. NYPD used to offer 50% pensions after 20 years. Now, you can still retire after 20, but it takes an extra two years to get the 50% pension. Almost all government plans are now tiered, so someone who was hired fifteen years ago has a much better plan than today's hires. The Military is still 20 years for a half pay retirement.
I'd guesstimate that 75% of Americans are underfunding their retirement and are going to be in for some unpleasant surprises.
link to original post


Thanks. I'd guestimate >75% are massively underfunding. Same over here.
link to original post


Doesn't England have a govt social welfare program for old people for free?

in america, it's called Social Security but we put about 2% of our salaries in it. It's calculated on the 10 highest earning years.
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
billryan
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April 8th, 2025 at 7:03:21 PM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

Quote: OnceDear

Quote: billryan

Most civil service jobs come with pensions, although not nearly as good as they used to be. NYPD used to offer 50% pensions after 20 years. Now, you can still retire after 20, but it takes an extra two years to get the 50% pension. Almost all government plans are now tiered, so someone who was hired fifteen years ago has a much better plan than today's hires. The Military is still 20 years for a half pay retirement.
I'd guesstimate that 75% of Americans are underfunding their retirement and are going to be in for some unpleasant surprises.
link to original post


Thanks. I'd guestimate >75% are massively underfunding. Same over here.
link to original post


Doesn't England have a govt social welfare program for old people for free?

in america, it's called Social Security but we put about 2% of our salaries in it. It's calculated on the 10 highest earning years.
link to original post



Self-employed people pay over 15% in SS and Medicare taxes. Most people pay half, and their employer picks up the other half. There are income maxes where you stop paying after about $200,000 income each year.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
100xOdds
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April 9th, 2025 at 5:45:36 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

Quote: 100xOdds


Doesn't England have a govt social welfare program for old people for free?

in america, it's called Social Security but we put about 2% of our salaries in it. It's calculated on the 10 highest earning years.
link to original post


Self-employed people pay over 15% in SS and Medicare taxes. Most people pay half, and their employer picks up the other half. There are income maxes where you stop paying after about $200,000 income each year.
link to original post


Wait, I'm putting in 7.5% for ss + Medicare?!?
Glad it's taken from my paycheck before I get a chance to bring it home
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
100xOdds
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April 9th, 2025 at 5:52:04 AM permalink
And China retaliated to Trump's 104% tarriff with 84% to the US.
Premarket down 2%.
Looks like I'm buying a little more this afternoon
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
Dieter
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April 9th, 2025 at 8:55:52 AM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

Quote: billryan

Quote: 100xOdds


Doesn't England have a govt social welfare program for old people for free?

in america, it's called Social Security but we put about 2% of our salaries in it. It's calculated on the 10 highest earning years.
link to original post


Self-employed people pay over 15% in SS and Medicare taxes. Most people pay half, and their employer picks up the other half. There are income maxes where you stop paying after about $200,000 income each year.
link to original post


Wait, I'm putting in 7.5% for ss + Medicare?!?
Glad it's taken from my paycheck before I get a chance to bring it home
link to original post



I think it's listed as "FICA".
May the cards fall in your favor.
100xOdds
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April 9th, 2025 at 11:05:08 AM permalink
Quote: Dieter

Quote: 100xOdds

Quote: billryan

Quote: 100xOdds


Doesn't England have a govt social welfare program for old people for free?

in america, it's called Social Security but we put about 2% of our salaries in it. It's calculated on the 10 highest earning years.
link to original post


Self-employed people pay over 15% in SS and Medicare taxes. Most people pay half, and their employer picks up the other half. There are income maxes where you stop paying after about $200,000 income each year.
link to original post


Wait, I'm putting in 7.5% for ss + Medicare?!?
Glad it's taken from my paycheck before I get a chance to bring it home
link to original post


I think it's listed as "FICA".
link to original post


yes but i thought it was around 2%.
in all my decades working, i never actually looked at the actual amount deducted on my paystub.
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
Dieter
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April 9th, 2025 at 11:37:26 AM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

Quote: Dieter

Quote: 100xOdds

Quote: billryan

Quote: 100xOdds


Doesn't England have a govt social welfare program for old people for free?

in america, it's called Social Security but we put about 2% of our salaries in it. It's calculated on the 10 highest earning years.
link to original post


Self-employed people pay over 15% in SS and Medicare taxes. Most people pay half, and their employer picks up the other half. There are income maxes where you stop paying after about $200,000 income each year.
link to original post


Wait, I'm putting in 7.5% for ss + Medicare?!?
Glad it's taken from my paycheck before I get a chance to bring it home
link to original post


I think it's listed as "FICA".
link to original post


yes but i thought it was around 2%.
in all my decades working, i never actually looked at the actual amount deducted on my paystub.
link to original post



I just checked mine, around 6.3% between Social Security and Medicare. This seems about right.

https://www.irs.gov/taxtopics/tc751
May the cards fall in your favor.
100xOdds
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April 9th, 2025 at 11:53:41 AM permalink
dow jumps 2300pts on news tariffs suspended for 90days, except for china.

looks like i'm not buying today :(
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
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