Quote: avianrandyso how did you do at the casino?Quote: SOOPOOUp 177% before market opens. I ‘made’ more in one day by doing nothing than I ever made in month by working. (Of course it could all go away today).
Going to casino today to risk less than 1/2 % of yesterdays market gains.
DK on inexorable upward trend.
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My casino reports are so mundane I rarely mention them here. I had an amazing run of good luck at Pai Gow to peak at up $400. That’s on $25 bets, with rare $30 bet thrown in. My one memorable hand I had a $1 tip bet up for the dealer, and I’m dealt Queen high. Dealer asks how ‘we’ are doing! I say ‘if you get Jack high Pai Gow we win. Bingo! She turns over jack high.
I ended on equally bad losing streak so up $150.
My ultimate X vulturing had LOTS of EV that turned into….
A loss!!! I had 7x on 10 out of 10 lines on a joker game. I’m dealt a joker with nothing else…. Held it…. Only got one 3 of a kind and one straight. I was expecting MUCH more and got my phone out to take a picture of the big win…. No picture needed…. I think my EV total exceeded $100. Lost $10….
So total was up $140.
Back to stocks….
Quote: billryanVery quietly, last month may have been my best month ever. Going over it this morning, several stocks were up over 10% and the entire portfolio was up over 5% for the month. That's not a bad year for some folks.
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Over the last 6 months, the QQQ is up 9% and the GDXJ and GDX are up over 24%. The gold miners had been up 31% in six months as of last week. As I have mentioned, I am very overweight in the sector.
I should have taken a screen shot last Tuesday, because my portfolio dropped by over $100K since then.

Quote: DRichDonald Trump is up over $192 million today with his DJT stock.
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Incredible. Someone is buying his stock instead of shorting it
Quote: 100xOddsQuote: DRichDonald Trump is up over $192 million today with his DJT stock.
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Incredible. Someone is buying his stock instead of shorting it
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Some people have shorted it. And they are about to get GameStopped.
Quote: AutomaticMonkeyQuote: 100xOddsQuote: DRichDonald Trump is up over $192 million today with his DJT stock.
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Incredible. Someone is buying his stock instead of shorting it
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Some people have shorted it. And they are about to get GameStopped.
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They will if Trump wins. If he loses the stock will tank.
Quote: DRichQuote: AutomaticMonkeyQuote: 100xOddsQuote: DRichDonald Trump is up over $192 million today with his DJT stock.
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Incredible. Someone is buying his stock instead of shorting it
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Some people have shorted it. And they are about to get GameStopped.
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They will if Trump wins. If he loses the stock will tank.
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Or it could be the other way around.
In terms of real company valuation, it's a social media company and we all know how unrealistic market caps can be for dot-coms. In this particular case, the longs and shorts might have more to do about how individuals feel about Trump, lining up on obvious sides of the market. That's symmetrical.
Where it will go asymmetrical is after the election. If the government decides to start kicking down doors and shooting dogs at the facilities of troublesome corporations, realistically there is only one party which will be doing that, because there is only one party that can get away with doing that politically. The New York Times and Washington Post will make it look like raising the flag at Iwo Jima. So in that case the stock will crash but so will a lot of others. But at the same if Trump loses and it has the same banana republic look and feel that it did in 2020, Trump will be even more popular, all the shorts playing will be a target, and the hunter will become the hunted.
Today's move probably had more to do with Elon's involvement than anything else. Elon changes everything.
Quote: AutomaticMonkey
Today's move probably had more to do with Elon's involvement than anything else. Elon changes everything.
I would guess it was mainly because Elon appeared with Trump.
Quote: DRichTrump up $369 million today in DJT.
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Uh oh, shorts covering their faces in shame.
While they're at it... I do believe they will have something else to cover...
Quote: DRichTrump up $369 million today in DJT.
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Interesting since polls show he's down a little more today and now (barely) outside the statistical error range of +/- 3.5%.
(But maybe not in battleground states?)
i think you're right about Musk. Trumps people don't care about polls. Musk next to him gives a morale boost thus buy buy buy.
And if shorting DJT wasn't so expensive, i would short.
I'm certain Trump's mouth will right DJT's path back to falling... lol
Quote: 100xOddsQuote: DRichTrump up $369 million today in DJT.
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Interesting since polls today show he's down a little more today and now (barely) outside the statistical error range of +/- 3.5%.
But i think your're right about Musk. His people don't care about polls. Musk next to him gives a morale boost thus buy buy buy.
And if shorting DJT wasn't so expensive, i would short.
I'm certain Trump's mouth will right DJT's path back to falling... lol
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I think the smarts all know exactly what public polls are worth. They're basically clickbait, now. The real polls are the ones contracted for internally by the campaigns, and they do not share that information. But that does not mean no one is betting or investing using that information.
I recently bought NVDA and am thinking of buying VST (Vistra), an energy stock that is I believe the biggest gainer in the s&p 500 ytd
am I too late______?________behind the curve________?________maybe - I'm willing to lose a little for the chance of a large gain
Vistra is the largest competitive power generator in the U.S.
I like large cap momentum stocks -
comments welcome
.
Quote: DRichI own a stock KRED. It is not doing great. I have 4,500 shares valued at $0.45. That $0,45 is not per share, that is the total value of my 4,500 shares. Do not take stock advice from DRich.
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This is not a fair way to assess your ability. One year, decades ago, I got my $30k to invest for my pension. I pick 3 separate stocks. That particular year I picked two that went fully bankrupt, but the third was a ten bagger. So overall I was up 333% or so.
So when I say, I put $10k into Enron, don’t take stock advice from me, is that fair? Other than MDawg, we all pick some winners, and some losers.
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: DRichI own a stock KRED. It is not doing great. I have 4,500 shares valued at $0.45. That $0,45 is not per share, that is the total value of my 4,500 shares. Do not take stock advice from DRich.
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This is not a fair way to assess your ability. One year, decades ago, I got my $30k to invest for my pension. I pick 3 separate stocks. That particular year I picked two that went fully bankrupt, but the third was a ten bagger. So overall I was up 333% or so.
So when I say, I put $10k into Enron, don’t take stock advice from me, is that fair? Other than MDawg, we all pick some winners, and some losers.
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My CYDY stock isn't quite that bad. It is only down 95% since I bought it. My $1000 investment is now worth about $54. The only stock in my etrade account that is doing well is FOUR. That etrade account is just my "play" account as my retirement accounts are with Edward Jones and Morgan Stanley. Those accounts I let the "professionals" handle.
And it's a good thing because:
EVERY stock of an individual company that i bought has crashed and burned.
down 6figures lifetime
Quote: 100xOddsAll my mutual funds/etf's are doing well. (retirement accts since i'm not allowed to buy individual stocks in my employer plans)
And it's a good thing because:
EVERY stock of an individual company that i bought has crashed and burned.
down 6figures lifetime
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I got quite a few bankrupt, but quite a few 10 baggers. WoV portfolio hit +180% Monday. I’m sure it’s down yesterday but wasn’t in the mood for negative news so didn’t check.
So most of my stocks in taxable portfolio have huge unrealized capital gains. I’m going to have to sell $$$$$$ to get house down payment. I’ve never sold a bond before, but many of mine have unrealized capital losses. I’m going to figure out how reasonable it is to sell some to limit my tax hit. I think, unfortunately, there’s a big spread built in to bid/ask bond prices compared to stocks.
WWE became TKO. Just checked…. And it’s around a 5 bagger now! Gotta be less than 15 years as it’s in the WoV portfolio.
Quote: DRichIt pains me to say, but Mr. Trump is up another $500 million today in DJT.
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Me too! In relative terms, of course. I took the call options route when this discussion started, and the results have been awesome.
I'm figuring it will probably max out about a week before the election. Trump will be up in everything, the other party will be in a panic and spewing ugly rhetoric. Suffice it to say if I owned a bookstore I would expect to find it with the windows smashed and the books burned, "Kauf nicht bei Trumpern!" painted on the walls.
Then on Wednesday, truckloads of ballots will be rolling in, "Well well well, look what we just found!" and DJT crashes when it looks like they will steal it. But I don't think there will be enough to steal it this time, and the stock will level off at its real value which will be somewhere between what it is now and where it will be at its peak before the election.
Need cash. So sold more TSM. AT 211!
I’ve been wanting to lower my exposure due to my (previously discussed political) reasons. It’s nice to get $25 more per share than I would have had I done this last week.
Surprising Money Market Fund still paying 4.77%.
Had to sell bonds for the first time. WAY more opaque than buying/selling stocks. As best I can tell between fees (around0.1%) and built in spread (likely around 0.2%) it is costing me $30 per $10k in bonds I’m liquidating.
I got lucky. After I sold my TSM at 211 it retreated to 201. That’s a full $1k more I got for my 100 share sale.
Still have 300 that I probably will sell more of before house closing payment is due.
SWVXX still paying 4.7%.
Quote: SOOPOO
SWVXX still paying 4.7%.
My savings account is now paying 4.85%
Quote: DRichQuote: SOOPOO
SWVXX still paying 4.7%.
My savings account is now paying 4.85%
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Mines not. It's around 4-4.2. A couple Fidelity are in the 4.4-4.6 range.
on $10,000 , an extra $1.25 a month!Quote: DRichQuote: SOOPOO
SWVXX still paying 4.7%.
My savings account is now paying 4.85%
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Just saying
Quote: odiousgambiton $10,000 , an extra $1.25 a month!Quote: DRichQuote: SOOPOO
SWVXX still paying 4.7%.
My savings account is now paying 4.85%
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Just saying
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Yes, and on $10 million it is $1,250 a month. Every dollar counts.
Quote: DRichQuote: odiousgambiton $10,000 , an extra $1.25 a month!Quote: DRichQuote: SOOPOO
SWVXX still paying 4.7%.
My savings account is now paying 4.85%
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Just saying
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Yes, and on $10 million it is $1,250 a month. Every dollar counts.
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If you have $10 million in your money market, you can eitherA) stop counting or B) hire someone to worry about it.
Quote: billryan
If you have $10 million in your money market, you can eitherA) stop counting or B) hire someone to worry about it.
It is not a money market account it is a savings account and the current balance is not quite $10 million yet.
Quote: billryanKeep in mind that FDIC insurance only covers part of that.
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It used to be $250k, I don't know if it has changed.
Quote: DRichQuote: billryanKeep in mind that FDIC insurance only covers part of that.
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It used to be $250k, I don't know if it has changed.
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Neither am I. The $250K was supposed to be temporary, but I never heard of them dropping it. I don't keep much in banks, even my emergency fund is with Fidelity. I keep my mad money in a bank and a checking account with a small cushion. I work my money hard, no sitting around luxuriating in a bank.
(Still substantially down from ATH)
Musk worth 20 or so BILLION more today than yesterday. (Number a total guess)
Let’s say a successful guy accumulates $2 million over the course of a lifetime.
Musk accumulated 20,000 x that in one day.
Quote: SOOPOOTSLA up 22% today.
(Still substantially down from ATH)
Musk worth 20 or so BILLION more today than yesterday. (Number a total guess)
Let’s say a successful guy accumulates $2 million over the course of a lifetime.
Musk accumulated 20,000 x that in one day.
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This is what happens when you have 9figures to start with.
Like the Fed Ex shipping founder except he got his 9 figures the old fashion way.. from his parents.
And what happened to cause a 20% jump in Tesla?
Quote: 100xOddsQuote: SOOPOOTSLA up 22% today.
(Still substantially down from ATH)
Musk worth 20 or so BILLION more today than yesterday. (Number a total guess)
Let’s say a successful guy accumulates $2 million over the course of a lifetime.
Musk accumulated 20,000 x that in one day.
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This is what happens when you have 9figures to start with.
Like the Fed Ex shipping founder except he got his 9 figures the old fashion way.. from his parents.
And what happened to cause a 20% jump in Tesla?
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They made a little more profit than Wall Street analysts expected. And announced they plan on selling more cars this year than last year. I stopped trying to figure this stuff out. Sometimes they announce great results and stock goes down because the results ‘weren’t great enough’.
Quote: 100xOddsQuote: SOOPOOTSLA up 22% today.
(Still substantially down from ATH)
Musk worth 20 or so BILLION more today than yesterday. (Number a total guess)
Let’s say a successful guy accumulates $2 million over the course of a lifetime.
Musk accumulated 20,000 x that in one day.
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This is what happens when you have 9figures to start with.
Like the Fed Ex shipping founder except he got his 9 figures the old fashion way.. from his parents.
And what happened to cause a 20% jump in Tesla?
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Several battery stocks also jumped. An article about a massive lithium find in Arkansas might have set it off.
I'd bought a block of Tesla at 260, only to see it drop below 200. Luckily,I bought another block at 198, so my average price is under 230
If it stays up, I'm dumping it all late this afternoon.
Quote: billryanQuote: 100xOddsQuote: SOOPOOTSLA up 22% today.
(Still substantially down from ATH)
Musk worth 20 or so BILLION more today than yesterday. (Number a total guess)
Let’s say a successful guy accumulates $2 million over the course of a lifetime.
Musk accumulated 20,000 x that in one day.
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This is what happens when you have 9figures to start with.
Like the Fed Ex shipping founder except he got his 9 figures the old fashion way.. from his parents.
And what happened to cause a 20% jump in Tesla?
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Several battery stocks also jumped. An article about a massive lithium find in Arkansas might have set it off.
I'd bought a block of Tesla at 260, only to see it drop below 200. Luckily,I bought another block at 198, so my average price is under 230
If it stays up, I'm dumping it all late this afternoon.
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268 for Billy! 15% or so buys lots of homeless goody bags!
I just finished selling all the stocks and bonds I needed to get house down payment. It feels ‘wrong’ selling! But that’s why I bought….
AIPI funds my homeless hobby. I put $20K in an account and use the dividends to buy bags. This month(Today, actually), I got seven hundred in dividends. That buys a decent amount of bags.
Capital gains are not taxable unless there is a trade and a profit is realized - dividends are of course taxable but many growth issues have smallish dividends
If the investor has a strategy of buy and hold and part of the reason he is investing is to pass along wealth to his heirs he may never have a capital gains tax obligation
heirs don't pay capital gains taxes. Instead the asset is valued at a stepped up basis. This tax provision is huge for many heirs since they may inherit assets that the giver has owned for a long time.
If you're an excellent trader, it may be worth it to aggressively buy and sell stocks and pay the capital gains taxes.
But if you're not, or you're not sure you are, most are prolly better off with buy and hold of an aggressive mutual fund or an index.
Many amateur traders, who see themselves as being highly skilled and highly profitable (compared to buy and hold) in reality are not - they're fooling themselves
Many professional traders underperform the indexes.
the average combined Federal and State tax rate is probably around 27%
imagine paying 27% for 35 years or so and also imagine instead of that having that 27% in your account to grow each and every year
most profitable traders will lose a substantial amount of their profits to taxes
of course, an individual's tax rate may be more or less depending on their situation -
even if the person is retired mandatory IRA withdrawals can bump up their tax rate
although all of a person's capital gains are taxable the maximum NET loss a person can write off on Federal Tax for one year is $3,000
here is what some of the high flyers from past years have done so far this year -(ytd) - these are 5 of the so called "Magnificent Seven"
Aapl (Apple) 20.89% - trails the s&p 500 index which is about 21.89%
Msft (Microsoft) - 13.86% - trails the index
Goog (Alphabet - Google) - 18.49% - trails the index
Amzn (Amazon) - 23.62% - barely beating the index
Tsla (Tesla) - 8.33% - getting crushed by the index
.
Quote: DRichIt pains me to say, but Mr. Trump is up another $500 million today in DJT.
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Trump’s social media company has tripled in value in five weeks
https://lite.cnn.com/2024/10/28/business/trump-social-media-stock-election/index.html
Meme stock:
“Social sentiment takes off, hitting a fever pitch, raising the value of the stock and then people keep betting on it more and more,” Kailas said.
Also, Legal way to gamble on the Pres election?
Quote: 100xOddsQuote: DRichIt pains me to say, but Mr. Trump is up another $500 million today in DJT.
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Trump’s social media company has tripled in value in five weeks
https://lite.cnn.com/2024/10/28/business/trump-social-media-stock-election/index.html
Meme stock:
“Social sentiment takes off, hitting a fever pitch, raising the value of the stock and then people keep betting on it more and more,” Kailas said.
Also, Legal way to gamble on the Pres election?
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DJT stock up $7 today so far another $790 million dollars for Trumps personal equity.
Quote: DRichThe New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) has filed paperwork to expand their market times to 22 hours a day five days a week.
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Long overdue. I expect it will be 24-7 in the not-too-distant future.
Quote: DRichThe New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) has filed paperwork to expand their market times to 22 hours a day five days a week.
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They nixed the idea of 24x7x365 trading a couple of decades ago.
Why try it again now?
Quote: 100xOddsQuote: DRichThe New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) has filed paperwork to expand their market times to 22 hours a day five days a week.
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They nixed the idea of 24x7x365 trading a couple of decades ago.
Why try it again now?
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I don't think they are. They are petitioning for 22 hours a day 5 days a week. I am guessing they want more involvement from the overseas markets.
Quote: 100xOddsQuote: DRichIt pains me to say, but Mr. Trump is up another $500 million today in DJT.
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Trump’s social media company has tripled in value in five weeks
https://lite.cnn.com/2024/10/28/business/trump-social-media-stock-election/index.html
Meme stock:
“Social sentiment takes off, hitting a fever pitch, raising the value of the stock and then people keep betting on it more and more,” Kailas said.
Also, Legal way to gamble on the Pres election?
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And djt dropped 20% today.
But no great positive news on Harris?
Automated Profit taking?