WoV stock portfolio
July 20th, 2023 at 12:44:23 PM
permalink
Quote: billryan
In most years, about half of managed funds beat the S&P,
that's just plain wrong
now you're putting out blatantly wrong info
nobody runs the S&P 500 - it's just a basket of individual stocks - nobody controls it
quote - article - December 2022 - New York Times
"over a full 20 year period ending last December, fewer than 10% of active U.S. stock funds managed to beat their benchmarks." (the S&P 500 index)
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/02/business/stock-market-index-funds.html
.
Please don't feed the trolls
July 20th, 2023 at 1:06:37 PM
permalink
My statement is pretty simple- In most years, about half the managed funds beat the S&P.
Your statement about what might occur over a ten-year period does not disprove my statement. It has nothing to do with it.
I think you choose wisely, letting someone else control your money. As you agree, lets let this die in agreement.
Your statement about what might occur over a ten-year period does not disprove my statement. It has nothing to do with it.
I think you choose wisely, letting someone else control your money. As you agree, lets let this die in agreement.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
July 20th, 2023 at 2:38:29 PM
permalink
Quote: billryanMutual funds are so 20th Century. I guess it is good as many investors still seem stuck in it.
link to original post
I was at the financial planner with my mother he was trying to explain the tax problems with them. I tried to help but no dice, thought she trusts us to do what is right. But so many people are stuck in the old way.
If we were rational and taxed cap gains at 0% it would not be such a problem and the economy would do better.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
July 20th, 2023 at 4:45:49 PM
permalink
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: lilredroosterQuote: billryanMutual funds are so 20th Century.
to me, that is not an issue - I don't care if I seem behind the times
what I care about is being as effective and efficient as possible
I don't believe that I could have even come close to the r.o.i. I have realized by trading stocks or bonds
or that I could now
if you can - great - more power to you - but I doubt there are many who can - if you can then I believe that you are exceptional
.
link to original post
Decades ago I started putting money in Mutual Funds. But one year they broke even or so butttttt…. they paid out dividends and capital gains…. So even though the entire value of my holdings did NOT increase, I had a tax liability. If you buy ETFs instead YOU determine if and when you will pay capital gains taxes. ETFs tend to have lower internal (hidden, essentially) fees than MF’s as well.
I still have 1 Mutual Fund, American Century Ultra, which before the pandemic was amongst my best investing decisions. It’s doing well this year…. Up 32% YTD.
link to original post
You people will never learn. If you use my strategy of only picking stocks that go down there is never a tax liability.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
July 20th, 2023 at 4:58:42 PM
permalink
Quote: DRichQuote: SOOPOOQuote: lilredroosterQuote: billryanMutual funds are so 20th Century.
"You people will never learn. If you use my strategy of only picking stocks that go down there is never a tax liability.
link to original post
Even tor short sales???
July 23rd, 2023 at 3:31:51 AM
permalink
.
since 1999, not including this year, the Dow has gone up in 17 years and down in 6 years
this strong upward historical movement is also reflected in the S&P 500
that's a very strong indication of the strength of the market as a whole
this very interesting link tracks investor sentiment towards the future
according to it:
51.4% are now bullish - 27.1% are neutral - and 21.5% are bearish
of course, the bulls could be wrong - but I don't believe this is meaningless - it has some value imo
https://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey
there is a great book by James Surowiecki called "The Wisdom of the Crowds"
in the book he shows in various ways that the opinions of the masses very often turn out to be correct - often more correct than the opinions of so called experts
.
since 1999, not including this year, the Dow has gone up in 17 years and down in 6 years
this strong upward historical movement is also reflected in the S&P 500
that's a very strong indication of the strength of the market as a whole
this very interesting link tracks investor sentiment towards the future
according to it:
51.4% are now bullish - 27.1% are neutral - and 21.5% are bearish
of course, the bulls could be wrong - but I don't believe this is meaningless - it has some value imo
https://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey
there is a great book by James Surowiecki called "The Wisdom of the Crowds"
in the book he shows in various ways that the opinions of the masses very often turn out to be correct - often more correct than the opinions of so called experts
.
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Jul 23, 2023
Please don't feed the trolls
August 7th, 2023 at 5:10:10 AM
permalink
.
Berkshire Hathaway - ticker symbol BRK.A is still going strong
it's still run by Warren Buffett - he will turn 93 at the end of August
he's the world's 6th richest man - his net worth is about $ 117 billion
what an amazing guy he is
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3997948-berkshire-hathaway-q2-operating-earnings-drive-up-on-strong-insurance-results
.
Berkshire Hathaway - ticker symbol BRK.A is still going strong
it's still run by Warren Buffett - he will turn 93 at the end of August
he's the world's 6th richest man - his net worth is about $ 117 billion
what an amazing guy he is
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3997948-berkshire-hathaway-q2-operating-earnings-drive-up-on-strong-insurance-results
.
Please don't feed the trolls
August 22nd, 2023 at 1:01:44 PM
permalink
Quote: lilredrooster
but I believe most can't and many are fooling themselves - if they carefully and honestly compared their long term returns to that of the S&P 500 index - and consider their tax obligations - the vast majority will see that they have underperformed - and many have underperformed by a lot -
.
link to original post
It is not easy to calculate real, risk adjusted returns. It is very easy for someone to see they are up 15% and Dow is up 10% and not realizing that risk adjusted, they severely underperformed.
Wall Street "analysts" I personally know fly around the world to evaluate company operations and pay for all sorts of supplemental data services to help them make decisions. They have access to things like satellite photo updates to get a better/faster estimates on outputs/inventories. I just love the idea of some random dude reading Bloomberg articles written by 20 year old new grads thinking they can out analyze the pros and beat the market. The real irony is that even the Wall Street pros have a bad record and can not beat the index long term. This is a fact. Somehow, people can't understand the idea that if a million monkeys throw darts at a dartboard, one of them will keep hitting bullseye "consistently".
If you want to make money, go to where you have an edge and where you are not competing with the world.
August 22nd, 2023 at 2:50:27 PM
permalink
This does not quite deserve a thread. But speaking of stocks....
US STEEL IS IN PLAY!
This is an amazing thing. For those too young to remember the 80s, "in play" meant the company had one or more suitors and would soon cease to be a public and independent company. Rarely was it the largest companies, usually more middle sized ones.
That US Steel could be a target is a sign of how times have changed.
They were the first billion dollar company. Without them it is plausible that we would not have won WWII. Their headquarters, the US Steel Building was locally called "the steel building" the "US" was redundant. When built it was the tallest building outside NYC and Chicago. Still tallest between them.
Now it is in play.
US STEEL IS IN PLAY!
This is an amazing thing. For those too young to remember the 80s, "in play" meant the company had one or more suitors and would soon cease to be a public and independent company. Rarely was it the largest companies, usually more middle sized ones.
That US Steel could be a target is a sign of how times have changed.
They were the first billion dollar company. Without them it is plausible that we would not have won WWII. Their headquarters, the US Steel Building was locally called "the steel building" the "US" was redundant. When built it was the tallest building outside NYC and Chicago. Still tallest between them.
Now it is in play.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
August 22nd, 2023 at 2:59:13 PM
permalink
Quote: AZDuffmanThis does not quite deserve a thread. But speaking of stocks....
US STEEL IS IN PLAY!
This is an amazing thing. For those too young to remember the 80s, "in play" meant the company had one or more suitors and would soon cease to be a public and independent company. Rarely was it the largest companies, usually more middle sized ones.
That US Steel could be a target is a sign of how times have changed.
They were the first billion dollar company. Without them it is plausible that we would not have won WWII. Their headquarters, the US Steel Building was locally called "the steel building" the "US" was redundant. When built it was the tallest building outside NYC and Chicago. Still tallest between them.
Now it is in play.
link to original post
I see some value in USX because of the state of China. China's major demise will be upon us in a few years and we will require more domestic steel.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
August 22nd, 2023 at 5:05:28 PM
permalink
Quote: DRichQuote: AZDuffmanThis does not quite deserve a thread. But speaking of stocks....
US STEEL IS IN PLAY!
This is an amazing thing. For those too young to remember the 80s, "in play" meant the company had one or more suitors and would soon cease to be a public and independent company. Rarely was it the largest companies, usually more middle sized ones.
That US Steel could be a target is a sign of how times have changed.
They were the first billion dollar company. Without them it is plausible that we would not have won WWII. Their headquarters, the US Steel Building was locally called "the steel building" the "US" was redundant. When built it was the tallest building outside NYC and Chicago. Still tallest between them.
Now it is in play.
link to original post
I see some value in USX because of the state of China. China's major demise will be upon us in a few years and we will require more domestic steel.
link to original post
The mills might be worth something. I have never heard one good thing said about working there. Ever
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
August 22nd, 2023 at 5:09:19 PM
permalink
Quote: AZDuffman
The mills might be worth something. I have never heard one good thing said about working there. Ever
The one in Ohio where I grew up paid a good union wage. Shovelling the furnaces was a hot nasty job.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
August 23rd, 2023 at 4:48:55 AM
permalink
Quote: DRichQuote: AZDuffman
The mills might be worth something. I have never heard one good thing said about working there. Ever
The one in Ohio where I grew up paid a good union wage. Shovelling the furnaces was a hot nasty job.
link to original post
But nasty jobs can be managed well or not. Here is an example. US Steel had a big safety program. Thousands of violations found and corrected. But.......
First, do you want to work at a plant with thousands of violations? Second, they measured the productivity of the violations a little like the "productivity" of government is measured, by raw paper. Those of you who have seen it will see what I am pointing out here.
Management was given a quota of violations to write. Then the had to keep beating it. It got to the point that guys came in on their days off to just write violations. Said violations got petty. One example I read was a guy takes off his safety helmet for a second to wipe off sweat. BOOM--violation. Foreman writes it. Foreman looks good to superintendent. Super looks good to plant manager, who looks good to executive management.
Anything get safer though?
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
August 23rd, 2023 at 4:57:16 AM
permalink
Quote: AZDuffmanQuote: DRichQuote: AZDuffman
The mills might be worth something. I have never heard one good thing said about working there. Ever
The one in Ohio where I grew up paid a good union wage. Shovelling the furnaces was a hot nasty job.
link to original post
But nasty jobs can be managed well or not. Here is an example. US Steel had a big safety program. Thousands of violations found and corrected. But.......
First, do you want to work at a plant with thousands of violations? Second, they measured the productivity of the violations a little like the "productivity" of government is measured, by raw paper. Those of you who have seen it will see what I am pointing out here.
Management was given a quota of violations to write. Then the had to keep beating it. It got to the point that guys came in on their days off to just write violations. Said violations got petty. One example I read was a guy takes off his safety helmet for a second to wipe off sweat. BOOM--violation. Foreman writes it. Foreman looks good to superintendent. Super looks good to plant manager, who looks good to executive management.
Anything get safer though?
link to original post
I don't disagree with you. You said that you had never heard a good word said about them and I said they paid a good union wage. That's all. I haven't been back to that city where I grew up in almost 40 years.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
August 23rd, 2023 at 5:13:30 AM
permalink
Quote: DRichQuote: AZDuffmanQuote: DRichQuote: AZDuffman
The mills might be worth something. I have never heard one good thing said about working there. Ever
The one in Ohio where I grew up paid a good union wage. Shovelling the furnaces was a hot nasty job.
link to original post
But nasty jobs can be managed well or not. Here is an example. US Steel had a big safety program. Thousands of violations found and corrected. But.......
First, do you want to work at a plant with thousands of violations? Second, they measured the productivity of the violations a little like the "productivity" of government is measured, by raw paper. Those of you who have seen it will see what I am pointing out here.
Management was given a quota of violations to write. Then the had to keep beating it. It got to the point that guys came in on their days off to just write violations. Said violations got petty. One example I read was a guy takes off his safety helmet for a second to wipe off sweat. BOOM--violation. Foreman writes it. Foreman looks good to superintendent. Super looks good to plant manager, who looks good to executive management.
Anything get safer though?
link to original post
I don't disagree with you. You said that you had never heard a good word said about them and I said they paid a good union wage. That's all. I haven't been back to that city where I grew up in almost 40 years.
link to original post
Lots of places pay a good wage. Steel used to pay identical across all companies, one master contract, until the early 80s. As I got older I learned how the unions planted the seed for the collapse of steel in 1959. It would take 25 years for the collapse to complete, but it started in 1959.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
