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lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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July 20th, 2023 at 12:44:23 PM permalink
Quote: billryan


In most years, about half of managed funds beat the S&P,


that's just plain wrong
now you're putting out blatantly wrong info

nobody runs the S&P 500 - it's just a basket of individual stocks - nobody controls it

quote - article - December 2022 - New York Times

"over a full 20 year period ending last December, fewer than 10% of active U.S. stock funds managed to beat their benchmarks." (the S&P 500 index)


https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/02/business/stock-market-index-funds.html


.
Please don't feed the trolls
billryan
billryan
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July 20th, 2023 at 1:06:37 PM permalink
My statement is pretty simple- In most years, about half the managed funds beat the S&P.


Your statement about what might occur over a ten-year period does not disprove my statement. It has nothing to do with it.

I think you choose wisely, letting someone else control your money. As you agree, lets let this die in agreement.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
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July 20th, 2023 at 2:38:29 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

Mutual funds are so 20th Century. I guess it is good as many investors still seem stuck in it.
link to original post



I was at the financial planner with my mother he was trying to explain the tax problems with them. I tried to help but no dice, thought she trusts us to do what is right. But so many people are stuck in the old way.

If we were rational and taxed cap gains at 0% it would not be such a problem and the economy would do better.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
DRich
DRich
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July 20th, 2023 at 4:45:49 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: billryan

Mutual funds are so 20th Century.


to me, that is not an issue - I don't care if I seem behind the times
what I care about is being as effective and efficient as possible

I don't believe that I could have even come close to the r.o.i. I have realized by trading stocks or bonds
or that I could now

if you can - great - more power to you - but I doubt there are many who can - if you can then I believe that you are exceptional

.
link to original post



Decades ago I started putting money in Mutual Funds. But one year they broke even or so butttttt…. they paid out dividends and capital gains…. So even though the entire value of my holdings did NOT increase, I had a tax liability. If you buy ETFs instead YOU determine if and when you will pay capital gains taxes. ETFs tend to have lower internal (hidden, essentially) fees than MF’s as well.
I still have 1 Mutual Fund, American Century Ultra, which before the pandemic was amongst my best investing decisions. It’s doing well this year…. Up 32% YTD.
link to original post



You people will never learn. If you use my strategy of only picking stocks that go down there is never a tax liability.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
SanchoPanza2
SanchoPanza2
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July 20th, 2023 at 4:58:42 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: billryan

Mutual funds are so 20th Century.


"You people will never learn. If you use my strategy of only picking stocks that go down there is never a tax liability.
link to original post



Even tor short sales???
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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July 23rd, 2023 at 3:31:51 AM permalink
.
since 1999, not including this year, the Dow has gone up in 17 years and down in 6 years
this strong upward historical movement is also reflected in the S&P 500

that's a very strong indication of the strength of the market as a whole

this very interesting link tracks investor sentiment towards the future

according to it:

51.4% are now bullish - 27.1% are neutral - and 21.5% are bearish

of course, the bulls could be wrong - but I don't believe this is meaningless - it has some value imo

https://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey

there is a great book by James Surowiecki called "The Wisdom of the Crowds"

in the book he shows in various ways that the opinions of the masses very often turn out to be correct - often more correct than the opinions of so called experts

.
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Jul 23, 2023
Please don't feed the trolls
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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August 7th, 2023 at 5:10:10 AM permalink
.
Berkshire Hathaway - ticker symbol BRK.A is still going strong

it's still run by Warren Buffett - he will turn 93 at the end of August

he's the world's 6th richest man - his net worth is about $ 117 billion

what an amazing guy he is


https://seekingalpha.com/news/3997948-berkshire-hathaway-q2-operating-earnings-drive-up-on-strong-insurance-results


.
Please don't feed the trolls
NYCAP
NYCAP
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August 22nd, 2023 at 1:01:44 PM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster



but I believe most can't and many are fooling themselves - if they carefully and honestly compared their long term returns to that of the S&P 500 index - and consider their tax obligations - the vast majority will see that they have underperformed - and many have underperformed by a lot -
.
link to original post



It is not easy to calculate real, risk adjusted returns. It is very easy for someone to see they are up 15% and Dow is up 10% and not realizing that risk adjusted, they severely underperformed.

Wall Street "analysts" I personally know fly around the world to evaluate company operations and pay for all sorts of supplemental data services to help them make decisions. They have access to things like satellite photo updates to get a better/faster estimates on outputs/inventories. I just love the idea of some random dude reading Bloomberg articles written by 20 year old new grads thinking they can out analyze the pros and beat the market. The real irony is that even the Wall Street pros have a bad record and can not beat the index long term. This is a fact. Somehow, people can't understand the idea that if a million monkeys throw darts at a dartboard, one of them will keep hitting bullseye "consistently".

If you want to make money, go to where you have an edge and where you are not competing with the world.
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
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August 22nd, 2023 at 2:50:27 PM permalink
This does not quite deserve a thread. But speaking of stocks....

US STEEL IS IN PLAY!

This is an amazing thing. For those too young to remember the 80s, "in play" meant the company had one or more suitors and would soon cease to be a public and independent company. Rarely was it the largest companies, usually more middle sized ones.

That US Steel could be a target is a sign of how times have changed.

They were the first billion dollar company. Without them it is plausible that we would not have won WWII. Their headquarters, the US Steel Building was locally called "the steel building" the "US" was redundant. When built it was the tallest building outside NYC and Chicago. Still tallest between them.

Now it is in play.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
DRich
DRich
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August 22nd, 2023 at 2:59:13 PM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

This does not quite deserve a thread. But speaking of stocks....

US STEEL IS IN PLAY!

This is an amazing thing. For those too young to remember the 80s, "in play" meant the company had one or more suitors and would soon cease to be a public and independent company. Rarely was it the largest companies, usually more middle sized ones.

That US Steel could be a target is a sign of how times have changed.

They were the first billion dollar company. Without them it is plausible that we would not have won WWII. Their headquarters, the US Steel Building was locally called "the steel building" the "US" was redundant. When built it was the tallest building outside NYC and Chicago. Still tallest between them.

Now it is in play.
link to original post



I see some value in USX because of the state of China. China's major demise will be upon us in a few years and we will require more domestic steel.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
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August 22nd, 2023 at 5:05:28 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: AZDuffman

This does not quite deserve a thread. But speaking of stocks....

US STEEL IS IN PLAY!

This is an amazing thing. For those too young to remember the 80s, "in play" meant the company had one or more suitors and would soon cease to be a public and independent company. Rarely was it the largest companies, usually more middle sized ones.

That US Steel could be a target is a sign of how times have changed.

They were the first billion dollar company. Without them it is plausible that we would not have won WWII. Their headquarters, the US Steel Building was locally called "the steel building" the "US" was redundant. When built it was the tallest building outside NYC and Chicago. Still tallest between them.

Now it is in play.
link to original post



I see some value in USX because of the state of China. China's major demise will be upon us in a few years and we will require more domestic steel.
link to original post



The mills might be worth something. I have never heard one good thing said about working there. Ever
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
DRich
DRich
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August 22nd, 2023 at 5:09:19 PM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman



The mills might be worth something. I have never heard one good thing said about working there. Ever



The one in Ohio where I grew up paid a good union wage. Shovelling the furnaces was a hot nasty job.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
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August 23rd, 2023 at 4:48:55 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: AZDuffman



The mills might be worth something. I have never heard one good thing said about working there. Ever



The one in Ohio where I grew up paid a good union wage. Shovelling the furnaces was a hot nasty job.
link to original post



But nasty jobs can be managed well or not. Here is an example. US Steel had a big safety program. Thousands of violations found and corrected. But.......

First, do you want to work at a plant with thousands of violations? Second, they measured the productivity of the violations a little like the "productivity" of government is measured, by raw paper. Those of you who have seen it will see what I am pointing out here.

Management was given a quota of violations to write. Then the had to keep beating it. It got to the point that guys came in on their days off to just write violations. Said violations got petty. One example I read was a guy takes off his safety helmet for a second to wipe off sweat. BOOM--violation. Foreman writes it. Foreman looks good to superintendent. Super looks good to plant manager, who looks good to executive management.

Anything get safer though?
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
DRich
DRich
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August 23rd, 2023 at 4:57:16 AM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

Quote: DRich

Quote: AZDuffman



The mills might be worth something. I have never heard one good thing said about working there. Ever



The one in Ohio where I grew up paid a good union wage. Shovelling the furnaces was a hot nasty job.
link to original post



But nasty jobs can be managed well or not. Here is an example. US Steel had a big safety program. Thousands of violations found and corrected. But.......

First, do you want to work at a plant with thousands of violations? Second, they measured the productivity of the violations a little like the "productivity" of government is measured, by raw paper. Those of you who have seen it will see what I am pointing out here.

Management was given a quota of violations to write. Then the had to keep beating it. It got to the point that guys came in on their days off to just write violations. Said violations got petty. One example I read was a guy takes off his safety helmet for a second to wipe off sweat. BOOM--violation. Foreman writes it. Foreman looks good to superintendent. Super looks good to plant manager, who looks good to executive management.

Anything get safer though?
link to original post



I don't disagree with you. You said that you had never heard a good word said about them and I said they paid a good union wage. That's all. I haven't been back to that city where I grew up in almost 40 years.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
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August 23rd, 2023 at 5:13:30 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: AZDuffman

Quote: DRich

Quote: AZDuffman



The mills might be worth something. I have never heard one good thing said about working there. Ever



The one in Ohio where I grew up paid a good union wage. Shovelling the furnaces was a hot nasty job.
link to original post



But nasty jobs can be managed well or not. Here is an example. US Steel had a big safety program. Thousands of violations found and corrected. But.......

First, do you want to work at a plant with thousands of violations? Second, they measured the productivity of the violations a little like the "productivity" of government is measured, by raw paper. Those of you who have seen it will see what I am pointing out here.

Management was given a quota of violations to write. Then the had to keep beating it. It got to the point that guys came in on their days off to just write violations. Said violations got petty. One example I read was a guy takes off his safety helmet for a second to wipe off sweat. BOOM--violation. Foreman writes it. Foreman looks good to superintendent. Super looks good to plant manager, who looks good to executive management.

Anything get safer though?
link to original post



I don't disagree with you. You said that you had never heard a good word said about them and I said they paid a good union wage. That's all. I haven't been back to that city where I grew up in almost 40 years.
link to original post



Lots of places pay a good wage. Steel used to pay identical across all companies, one master contract, until the early 80s. As I got older I learned how the unions planted the seed for the collapse of steel in 1959. It would take 25 years for the collapse to complete, but it started in 1959.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
SOOPOO
SOOPOO 
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December 1st, 2023 at 9:55:12 AM permalink
Holy shit. This portfolio will be having its 10 YEAR birthday in two months. Just checked. Up 130% from inception. I don’t have to start taking withdrawals for another 8 years.

The market is up today. So this portfolio is up more than 100x my sports betting average daily take. But I will be watching the big Getafe soccer game more than the market!
DRich
DRich
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December 1st, 2023 at 7:31:33 PM permalink
Cytodyn up 22% today. Woohoo!!! I still have my 300 shares.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO 
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December 20th, 2023 at 7:25:34 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Holy shit. This portfolio will be having its 10 YEAR birthday in two months. Just checked. Up 130% from inception. I don’t have to start taking withdrawals for another 8 years.

The market is up today. So this portfolio is up more than 100x my sports betting average daily take. But I will be watching the big Getafe soccer game more than the market!
link to original post



3 weeks later now up 137%. Who knows why?!?
I looked back at this thread due to the chatter about how to value a company in another thread. This is the portfolio with TSLA.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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December 21st, 2023 at 1:12:23 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Holy shit. This portfolio will be having its 10 YEAR birthday in two months. Just checked. Up 130% from inception.


Holy ****

the S&P 500 was up 152.9% at its 10 year anniversary in November

anybody who wanted to could have bought the index fund at Vanguard, went to sleep, never trade, and pay either zero or minimal capital gains taxes until they liquidated for other reasons (personal) -


https://ycharts.com/indicators/sp_500_10_year_return

.
Please don't feed the trolls
SOOPOO
SOOPOO 
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December 21st, 2023 at 1:32:16 PM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: SOOPOO

Holy shit. This portfolio will be having its 10 YEAR birthday in two months. Just checked. Up 130% from inception.


Holy ****

the S&P 500 was up 152.9% at its 10 year anniversary in November

anybody who wanted to could have bought the index fund at Vanguard, went to sleep, never trade, and pay either zero or minimal capital gains taxes until they liquidated for other reasons (personal) -


https://ycharts.com/indicators/sp_500_10_year_return

.
link to original post



Thanks! I guess I’ve underperformed…. but not surprising. I have some (very little) cash, some bonds, and probably some bad stocks.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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December 21st, 2023 at 1:39:33 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: SOOPOO

Holy shit. This portfolio will be having its 10 YEAR birthday in two months. Just checked. Up 130% from inception.


Holy ****

the S&P 500 was up 152.9% at its 10 year anniversary in November

anybody who wanted to could have bought the index fund at Vanguard, went to sleep, never trade, and pay either zero or minimal capital gains taxes until they liquidated for other reasons (personal) -


https://ycharts.com/indicators/sp_500_10_year_return

.
link to original post



Thanks! I guess I’ve underperformed…. but not surprising. I have some (very little) cash, some bonds, and probably some bad stocks.
link to original post


no sweat
you and prolly about 99% of others who imagined they could beat the market
but maybe you and them had fun trying - so it was worth it
you did very well - not trying to say you didn't
your performance in trading stocks is impressive

.
Please don't feed the trolls
SOOPOO
SOOPOO 
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December 21st, 2023 at 2:58:24 PM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: SOOPOO

Holy shit. This portfolio will be having its 10 YEAR birthday in two months. Just checked. Up 130% from inception.


Holy ****

the S&P 500 was up 152.9% at its 10 year anniversary in November

anybody who wanted to could have bought the index fund at Vanguard, went to sleep, never trade, and pay either zero or minimal capital gains taxes until they liquidated for other reasons (personal) -


https://ycharts.com/indicators/sp_500_10_year_return

.
link to original post



Thanks! I guess I’ve underperformed…. but not surprising. I have some (very little) cash, some bonds, and probably some bad stocks.
link to original post


no sweat
you and prolly about 99% of others who imagined they could beat the market
but maybe you and them had fun trying - so it was worth it
you did very well - not trying to say you didn't
your performance in trading stocks is impressive

.
link to original post



Actually I would have expected my portfolio to underperform a benchmark like the S and P 500. Having any cash is a negative. Having any bonds is a negative. They decrease variance but in an up market of 10 years an all stock portfolio would almost always outperform my hodgepodge.
I also don’t particularly think I’m good at picking stocks. I probably talk about the winners more than the losers. The performance of the portfolio probably has me at an ‘average’ stock picker.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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December 22nd, 2023 at 4:53:55 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO


I also don’t particularly think I’m good at picking stocks. The performance of the portfolio probably has me at an ‘average’ stock picker.


I would disagree
considering that you owned cash and bonds and that there is still another 2 months to go; you basically about matched the S&P
I would surmise that the vast majority of those who actively trade stocks do much worse than that over a 10 year period

.
Please don't feed the trolls
billryan
billryan
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December 22nd, 2023 at 5:27:51 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: SOOPOO


I also don’t particularly think I’m good at picking stocks. The performance of the portfolio probably has me at an ‘average’ stock picker.


I would disagree
considering that you owned cash and bonds and that there is still another 2 months to go; you basically about matched the S&P
I would surmise that the vast majority of those who actively trade stocks do much worse than that over a 10 year period

.
link to original post



What do you base that on? Information provided by companies who want your business? I just don't get why you think beating the S&P is either hard or important.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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December 22nd, 2023 at 5:34:15 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: SOOPOO


I also don’t particularly think I’m good at picking stocks. The performance of the portfolio probably has me at an ‘average’ stock picker.


I would disagree
considering that you owned cash and bonds and that there is still another 2 months to go; you basically about matched the S&P
I would surmise that the vast majority of those who actively trade stocks do much worse than that over a 10 year period

.
link to original post

you don't want to be 100% in stocks ... this is something all financial gurus agree on. I recently posted that I wished I was 100% in stocks when I first started investing, but I didn't mean no cash at all, I meant no bonds at all. You need to be able to have periods when you don't need to cash out stocks, and when you have bonds you need to have periods when you don't have to cash those out either. The only replacement for cash on hand is lots and lots of infallible income.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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December 22nd, 2023 at 6:06:40 AM permalink
moved
Please don't feed the trolls
SOOPOO
SOOPOO 
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December 22nd, 2023 at 6:17:40 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: SOOPOO


I also don’t particularly think I’m good at picking stocks. The performance of the portfolio probably has me at an ‘average’ stock picker.


I would disagree
considering that you owned cash and bonds and that there is still another 2 months to go; you basically about matched the S&P
I would surmise that the vast majority of those who actively trade stocks do much worse than that over a 10 year period

.
link to original post

you don't want to be 100% in stocks ... this is something all financial gurus agree on. I recently posted that I wished I was 100% in stocks when I first started investing, but I didn't mean no cash at all, I meant no bonds at all. You need to be able to have periods when you don't need to cash out stocks, and when you have bonds you need to have periods when you don't have to cash those out either. The only replacement for cash on hand is lots and lots of infallible income.
link to original post



In my younger days my income far exceeded my needs. I bought stocks so that I’d have $$ available now when I have little ‘income’ (small pension). So for years was essentially entirely in stocks. I certainly outperformed my colleagues who paid a money manager 1/2 - 1% to be in some cash and some bonds!
Now if I need cash it is easy to sell some stock and move the money to my checking account. I consider my non retirement portfolio essentially ‘cash on hand’.
Maybe I was lucky to ignore the ‘gurus’.
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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December 22nd, 2023 at 6:52:03 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: odiousgambit

you don't want to be 100% in stocks ... this is something all financial gurus agree on. I recently posted that I wished I was 100% in stocks when I first started investing, but I didn't mean no cash at all, I meant no bonds at all. You need to be able to have periods when you don't need to cash out stocks, and when you have bonds you need to have periods when you don't have to cash those out either. The only replacement for cash on hand is lots and lots of infallible income.
link to original post



In my younger days my income far exceeded my needs. I bought stocks so that I’d have $$ available now when I have little ‘income’ (small pension). So for years was essentially entirely in stocks. I certainly outperformed my colleagues who paid a money manager 1/2 - 1% to be in some cash and some bonds!

yeah, man, ain't it the truth!
Quote:

Now if I need cash it is easy to sell some stock and move the money to my checking account. I consider my non retirement portfolio essentially ‘cash on hand’.

I assume you go to the latter and don't sell stocks when there is a big swoon in the market
Quote:

Maybe I was lucky to ignore the ‘gurus’.
link to original post

I think the gurus, the better ones, would be OK with how you did it, as your income when you were 100% stocks was more reliable than most [it is possible to get fired as a doctor, and denied a license too. Infallible income is not a real thing, at least you can construct a scenario where anything you dream up can go away, like Communists taking over or whatever] and you said it was income beyond your immediate needs.
I never had that kind of assurance about income which had me going into 'balanced' funds and that sort of thing [an amount in bonds in other words] and I do think now I should have had more faith in being able to find work.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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January 27th, 2024 at 12:36:46 PM permalink
Quote: NYCAP


Wall Street "analysts" I personally know fly around the world to evaluate company operations and pay for all sorts of supplemental data services to help them make decisions. They have access to things like satellite photo updates to get a better/faster estimates on outputs/inventories. I just love the idea of some random dude reading Bloomberg articles written by 20 year old new grads thinking they can out analyze the pros and beat the market. The 𝙧𝙚𝙖𝙡 𝙞𝙧𝙤𝙣𝙮 is that even the Wall Street pros have a bad record and can not beat the index long term. This is a fact. Somehow, people can't understand the idea that if a million monkeys throw darts at a dartboard, one of them will keep hitting bullseye "consistently".
link to original post


I somehow missed this great, great post (imho) when it was current from this guy who doesn't post much
so I decided to point it out now

.
Please don't feed the trolls
MrV
MrV
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January 27th, 2024 at 1:02:00 PM permalink
I rarely look at this or any thread discussing stocks, bonds, ETF's etc.: not because I don't care.

Fact is, I have a large chunk of funds invested in various things.

The thing is, it is ALL under professional management: I let the experts make the call as to buy and sell.

I used my brains to EARN the money I invested over the years, so now I can kick back while they use their brains to make my wealth grow.
"What, me worry?"
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
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January 27th, 2024 at 1:17:30 PM permalink
Quote: MrV

I rarely look at this or any thread discussing stocks, bonds, ETF's etc.: not because I don't care.

Fact is, I have a large chunk of funds invested in various things.

The thing is, it is ALL under professional management: I let the experts make the call as to buy and sell.

I used my brains to EARN the money I invested over the years, so now I can kick back while they use their brains to make my wealth grow.
link to original post



Different people are good at different things. I meet some way smart people who just don't get investments. But I do really wish instead of Algebra II our high schools offered a "finance track" of math. Instead of those "higher maths" that are abstract learn the functional stuff.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
SOOPOO
SOOPOO 
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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January 27th, 2024 at 6:13:28 PM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

Quote: MrV

I rarely look at this or any thread discussing stocks, bonds, ETF's etc.: not because I don't care.

Fact is, I have a large chunk of funds invested in various things.

The thing is, it is ALL under professional management: I let the experts make the call as to buy and sell.

I used my brains to EARN the money I invested over the years, so now I can kick back while they use their brains to make my wealth grow.
link to original post



Different people are good at different things. I meet some way smart people who just don't get investments. But I do really wish instead of Algebra II our high schools offered a "finance track" of math. Instead of those "higher maths" that are abstract learn the functional stuff.
link to original post



Good point. An ex colleague, my age, made the essentially same income I did, literally invested all his money in bank accounts /CDs. All had FDIC insurance so he would never be at risk of losing a penny. I once tried to explain to him how lame that was, to no avail. Easily cost himself 7 figures over the span of his career.

Other colleague has used an ‘expert’. He’s been in, in my opinion, way overly diversified stuff (too much cash, too much in bonds) over the course of his career. And paying a percent or so for this! If you have $3 million that’s $30k a year.
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
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January 28th, 2024 at 2:38:41 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: AZDuffman

Quote: MrV

I rarely look at this or any thread discussing stocks, bonds, ETF's etc.: not because I don't care.

Fact is, I have a large chunk of funds invested in various things.

The thing is, it is ALL under professional management: I let the experts make the call as to buy and sell.

I used my brains to EARN the money I invested over the years, so now I can kick back while they use their brains to make my wealth grow.
link to original post



Different people are good at different things. I meet some way smart people who just don't get investments. But I do really wish instead of Algebra II our high schools offered a "finance track" of math. Instead of those "higher maths" that are abstract learn the functional stuff.
link to original post



Good point. An ex colleague, my age, made the essentially same income I did, literally invested all his money in bank accounts /CDs. All had FDIC insurance so he would never be at risk of losing a penny. I once tried to explain to him how lame that was, to no avail. Easily cost himself 7 figures over the span of his career.

Other colleague has used an ‘expert’. He’s been in, in my opinion, way overly diversified stuff (too much cash, too much in bonds) over the course of his career. And paying a percent or so for this! If you have $3 million that’s $30k a year.
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A woman I worked with knew I was interested in investments so gave me a booklet called "Common Sense." It was an eye opener and at a very young age of 17 when I read it. It led me to buying a couple other beginning investment books (to our younger readers yes, we used to actually buy books!) where I learned the basics. But whe I read it was the first I understood compound interest. I had heard it, but never understood it.

If I was in charge I would make a version of the book mandatory in high school as part of a mandatory life skills class.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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January 28th, 2024 at 7:33:35 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Other colleague has used an ‘expert’. He’s been in, in my opinion, way overly diversified stuff (too much cash, too much in bonds) over the course of his career. And paying a percent or so for this! If you have $3 million that’s $30k a year.
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"experts" will put you into lousy funds too, ones that they feel pressured to sell you, or maybe just where they make great commissions

even if they don't, they collect that percent or so

I had to get rid of a guy my wife latched onto ... there were reasons to keep him for a while that I won't go into, but I didn't at first realize he was 'type one' above re getting you into stinker funds. I asked him if he could help with Social Security decisions I was facing at the time, where it was debatable what the best course was. After revealing he barely knew what I was talking about, he was going to charge me $150 an hour.

Needless to say it wasn't long before it was 'sayonara', my wife's eyes were opened
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
SOOPOO
SOOPOO 
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February 7th, 2024 at 10:38:31 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: SOOPOO

Holy shit. This portfolio will be having its 10 YEAR birthday in two months. Just checked. Up 130% from inception. I don’t have to start taking withdrawals for another 8 years.



3 weeks later now up 137%. Who knows why?!?
I looked back at this thread due to the chatter about how to value a company in another thread. This is the portfolio with TSLA.
link to original post



Mid day today now hits up 148% since inception.

I only looked because I own a Russian stock called Yandex. I got a ‘tender offer’ for my remaining shares for ‘40% of what it is trading for on the Moscow Stock Exchange’. (Or Russian Stock Exchange?). So I own 100 shares of a stock which is trading at around $27 there but I’m only going to get $11. I checked and Russia basically is telling foreign investors from ‘bad countries’ they can only keep 1/2 when they sell. (Some big company from the Netherlands owns a very large stake). So my 40% is another cut from the 50% the big boys will get. I did well over the years on the other 200 shares I had. Should have sold them all earlier..
DRich
DRich
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February 7th, 2024 at 12:47:26 PM permalink
I own some shares of GE in my long term retirement account. I don't pay much attention to those stocks because i don't trade them. I just found out that GE split off a Health care division and i received 1 share of stock in it for every three shares of GE that I have. GE is my largest holding in that account so i now have a decent size stake in GE Healthcare too. It is currently trading at $82 a share and I didn't even know that I had it.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO 
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February 19th, 2024 at 7:13:58 AM permalink
Market generally UP since last post. Now up 148% since inception. (yesterday!) I was at an all time high. Unless they change the rules again (likely?) I have 8 or 9 years until I have to start draining this account.

Here’s an example of how I am a ploppy. I had a bunch of shares in Sinovac. A Chinese biotech company. It is a real company that I think made the COVID-19 vaccine for China. Anyway, it got de-listed, and essentially disappeared from my portfolio page. There may have been some way for me to trade it on the Hong Kong stock exchange but likely not worth it. So a few days ago I got a ‘tender offer’. I accepted. Got I think around $50. I had (mentally, emotionally) written it off around 3 years ago. So I look at it as $50 for free. I’ll bet whoever is buying it from me makes a nice multiple of what they paid me.
100xOdds
100xOdds 
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February 19th, 2024 at 10:11:53 AM permalink
i was supposed to re-balance my portfolio at end of dec.
i'm 5% overweight in stock.

it's now mid feb and it's probably even more over weight.
but might as well ride the bull till May and follow the saying 'Sell in may.'
so rebalance on May 1 to get more Bonds.
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
terapined
terapined
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February 19th, 2024 at 11:07:47 AM permalink
Im probably unbalanced
80% stocks
20% bonds

My best score, Nvidia NVDA
I sold my house 3 1/2 years ago and had lots of cash to invest
Just happened to listen to Cramer on CNBC and he was raving about NVDA
So I bought in for just 2k. Just dipping my toe in
Went up 433%
My 2k worth over 11k
woohoo
Thanks Cramer
DRich
DRich
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
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February 19th, 2024 at 1:18:26 PM permalink
Quote: terapined

Im probably unbalanced
80% stocks
20% bonds



I am about 70% 30%. I think I am being too conservative.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
vegas
vegas
Joined: Apr 27, 2012
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February 19th, 2024 at 7:27:07 PM permalink
Quote: terapined

Im probably unbalanced
80% stocks
20% bonds

My best score, Nvidia NVDA
I sold my house 3 1/2 years ago and had lots of cash to invest
Just happened to listen to Cramer on CNBC and he was raving about NVDA
So I bought in for just 2k. Just dipping my toe in
Went up 433%
My 2k worth over 11k
woohoo
Thanks Cramer
link to original post




Just don't keep following Cramer as his record is not good. Many people bet the opposite of what he says. *L* Nice hit on NVDA. They report earnings this week and will have lots of movement one way or the other.
50-50-90 Rule: Anytime you have a 50-50 chance of getting something right, there is a 90% probability you'll get it wrong
terapined
terapined
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February 19th, 2024 at 8:44:12 PM permalink
Quote: vegas

Quote: terapined

Im probably unbalanced
80% stocks
20% bonds

My best score, Nvidia NVDA
I sold my house 3 1/2 years ago and had lots of cash to invest
Just happened to listen to Cramer on CNBC and he was raving about NVDA
So I bought in for just 2k. Just dipping my toe in
Went up 433%
My 2k worth over 11k
woohoo
Thanks Cramer
link to original post




Just don't keep following Cramer as his record is not good. Many people bet the opposite of what he says. *L* Nice hit on NVDA. They report earnings this week and will have lots of movement one way or the other.
link to original post


It was total blind luck on listening to Cramer
I hardly ever listen to him
Had money to invest and was spreading it out into a bunch of different stocks so tuned into CNBC
That one day he just happened to be touting NVDA and I listened and lucked out
this is like a 2 week period 3 1/2 years ago when I bought stocks from the sale of my house
Havent bought a single stock since. Probably havent listened to Cramer since
I will tune in for Sara Eisen :-)
I'm a ploppy. I cant trade or time the market
Once I buy a stock, its to hold until I need money
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
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February 20th, 2024 at 12:21:00 PM permalink
Quote: terapined

Im probably unbalanced
80% stocks
20% bonds

My best score, Nvidia NVDA
I sold my house 3 1/2 years ago and had lots of cash to invest
Just happened to listen to Cramer on CNBC and he was raving about NVDA
So I bought in for just 2k. Just dipping my toe in
Went up 433%
My 2k worth over 11k
woohoo
Thanks Cramer
link to original post

ya jinxed it by talking about it
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
100xOdds
100xOdds 
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February 20th, 2024 at 12:46:06 PM permalink
I own Schwab US total Market (schB).
ER = .03%

I see this:
Schwab Fundamental US total market (fndB)
https://www.schwab.com/research/etfs/quotes/summary/fndb
ER = .25%

Never heard of a Fundamental version before.
fndB beats Morningstar's Large Value index at 1yr, 3yr, and 5yr categories.

Thinking about buying $20k then in May, switching it to total Bonds (schZ) to partially balance my portfolio.
Also going to switch PRHSX (Healthcare etf) to Bonds at that time. Getting out of specialty sectors.
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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February 20th, 2024 at 1:09:38 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

I own some shares of GE in my long term retirement account. I don't pay much attention to those stocks because i don't trade them. I just found out that GE split off a Health care division and i received 1 share of stock in it for every three shares of GE that I have. GE is my largest holding in that account so i now have a decent size stake in GE Healthcare too. It is currently trading at $82 a share and I didn't even know that I had it.
link to original post



GE is not what it once was.

A few years back it had a 1 for 8 reverse split.

It is splitting into three. Each focused on one industry. It will never be a conglomerate again.

GE was never able to replace Jack Welch. And when he did retire so many execs who did not get his job got scooped up by other companies.

But, ultimately, their deciding to do finance instead of manufacturing was their downfall.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
DRich
DRich
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
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February 20th, 2024 at 3:30:07 PM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman


GE is not what it once was.



I agree, but when they split off GE Healthcare I got 1000 shares and it is up to $86 today. I think it listed at $50 or so.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.

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