November 7th is going to be great :)
(let me save you the trouble, Bob)
No, because we'll finally be rid of Mitt Romney.Quote: EvenBobBecause America will finally get rid of Barry HUSSEIN Obummer
Wow!Quote: s2dbaker(I'm totally jinxing it now)Quote: s2dbaker(I'm going to go ahead an jinx it)Quote: EvenBobROTFLMAO!!!Quote: rdw4potusObama is going to win handily, .
Hey Bob, still rolling on the floor there?
Probability of Reaching 270
Democrats 92%
Republicans 7%
Neither (Tie) < 1%
Source
How's that election thing working out for Romney?
Probability of Reaching 270
Democrats 94%
Republicans 5%
Neither (Tie) < 1%
Probability of Reaching 270
Democrats 97%
Republicans 3%
Neither (Tie) < 1%
Keep in mind that all of this is about today. Things can still go Romney's way. He can find a personality or a position that he hasn't taken both sides of or a competent bone on his body between now and election day. Heck, no one who is voting for Obama can name a single reason why he deserves four more years. This election is all Romney's for the taking.
Quote: s2dbaker[
Probability of Reaching 270
Democrats 97%
Republicans 3%
Neither (Tie) < 1%
Keep in mind that all of this is about today. Things can still go Romney's way. He can find a personality or a position that he hasn't taken both sides of or a competent bone on his body between now and election day. Heck, no one who is voting for Obama can name a single reason why he deserves four more years. This election is all Romney's for the taking.
There is a real danger for Democrats with high polls. Some people may be more likely to blow off voting if they have other things they need to take care of, thinking their vote won't make the difference.
Worry not. The house of Rasmussen is there to provide a poll that shows Mitt Romney in the lead. Even if the outlier Rasmussen wasn't there, complacency is not a problem for team Blue.Quote: rxwineThere is a real danger for Democrats with high polls. Some people may be more likely to blow off voting if they have other things they need to take care of, thinking their vote won't make the difference.
Gallup Tracking: Obama 50, Romney 44
Ipsos/Reuters Tracking: Obama 49, Romney 43 (Likely Voters); Obama 47, Romney 40 (Registered Voters)
Rasmussen Tracking: Romney 48, Obama 46
Selzer for Bloomberg: Obama 49, Romney 43
YouGov: Obama 48, Romney 43
I mean let's look how much in went up under Bush..-2500 (-24%) .
We need Mitt to bring back that Republican magic...
I am not going to get into this polling conspiracy debate, where the republicans claim, some polls are over-sampling democrats. This kind of talk to me is one side just not liking what they are seeing very much and trying to justify it rather than accept what is clearly in front of them. Time will tell, however. I did find it interesting that just 2 nights ago, Karl Rove spent 15 minutes, laying out a path to a Romney win that did NOT include winning Ohio. That tells me that even 'the architect' realizes that Ohio is probably lost. And really, despite Mr Rove's best efforts, if Ohio goes Obama, the likelihood of a Romney presidency drops from the current 20% to about .5%.
Romney: +368
Obama: -442
My gut says that the election is already over unless Obama has a "47%" moment. I'm tempted to lay those odds on Obama.
Quote: WizardMeanwhile, the odds keep shooting up for Obama. Today's Pinnacle lines:
Romney: +368
Obama: -442
My gut says that the election is already over unless Obama has a "47%" moment. I'm tempted to lay those odds on Obama.
Yikes! When I wager, without an advantage, I tend to be an underdog guy. It's just a value thing. I could never lay those odds. I could never bet a horse at 1-5. Never lay 2 touchdowns in a pro football game. Never bet a pitcher at -250. Just not within my make-up. lol.
I think if I was going to wager on the election, I would bet Mr Romney at this point (+368), and hope that the election tightened up as they often tend to do, at least to the point that I could then bet Obama and make money either way.
Like you indicated, take Obama at InTrade and Romney at Pinnacle (Romney is +310, $2.44 to win $7.56 at InTrade). InTrade is a bit of a pain, I still have to get them some Utility Bills before they will free up my account to place a "trade".
Quote: WizardMeanwhile, the odds keep shooting up for Obama. Today's Pinnacle lines:
Romney: +368
Obama: -442
My gut says that the election is already over unless Obama has a "47%" moment. I'm tempted to lay those odds on Obama.
Pretty aggressive odds what with the most accurate pollster in 2008 still having it tied and Obamas approval below 50%. People still think it is 2008.
Quote: s2dbakerWorry not. The house of Rasmussen is there to provide a poll that shows Mitt Romney in the lead. Even if the outlier Rasmussen wasn't there, complacency is not a problem for team Blue.
A couple years back, Nate Silver (the pollster anaylst) did a feature on Rasmussen, apparently showing how its polls come into line with others right around election day. Then they can take credit for accuracy, I assume.
nothing to do with Romney, its not his to win. Its
a referendum on Obama, its his election to lose.
Does anybody really think people will be pondering
Romney in the voting booth on Nov 6th? They'll
be thinking of Obama, and how they've done in the
last four years. Thats how it always works with an
incumbent in the WH. George Bush was hated in 2004
for Iraq and the Patriot Act and Gitmo. But people
pulled the curtain and voted him in again because
unemployment was low, there were lots of jobs, and
their wallets had no complaints.
Never underestimate the selfishness of a voter. Its his
ass he cares about, not yours, not his neighbors, and
certainly not the country's. How do you think Obama
will fare under the 'how's my wallet doing' scrutiny
in Nov. About like Carter did, running against an old
washed up B movie actor who's claim to fame was doing
Boraxo ad's on Death Vally Days. If you weren't there
in 1980, you have no idea what a running joke Ronald
'Bedtime for Bonzo' Reagan was. I was embarrassed to
vote for him, but I did because the election wasn't
about him, it was about getting rid of Carter.
He was great in Lifeboat.
Remember his character on Batman?
can you name him?
Remember this line from the movie " What do you do with people like that? "
It is applicable even today, sad to say !
Neither can a snake help being a rattlesnake if he's born a rattlesnake!
That don't make him a nightingale! Get him out of here!
Ok, this thread has been jacked.
I will stop now
Soros gives his money to the Obama voters directly by redistributing his wealth. It's more effective that way. Adelson just buys ads on TV stations that no one cares about, throwing his money down a drain. Just ask the proprietor of this website :) That's okay Wiz, you can wait until November 7th to tell us how you really feel.Quote: WongBoOnly a million? Shelly has given close to 70 to RMONEY et al.
Quote: s2dbakerWorry not. The house of Rasmussen is there to provide a poll that shows Mitt Romney in the lead. Even if the outlier Rasmussen wasn't there, complacency is not a problem for team Blue.
Gallup Tracking: Obama 50, Romney 44
Ipsos/Reuters Tracking: Obama 49, Romney 43 (Likely Voters); Obama 47, Romney 40 (Registered Voters)
Rasmussen Tracking: Romney 48, Obama 46
Selzer for Bloomberg: Obama 49, Romney 43
YouGov: Obama 48, Romney 43
Selzer for Bloomberg? Good for Ann! About time she got out of Iowa... That's the world's best pollster right here. Bar none.
hearing more this year on how they're done
and its very disappointing.
First of all, the dirty secret no pollster tells us
is, of all the people who answer the phone, only
9% agree to take the poll. 9%! Thats less than
1 in 10. So what you get is a lot of people who
have a lot of time on their hands, not a true
cross section of anything.
Then, more than 70% of the people who agree
to do it are women. That won't do, so all pollsters
take a few from column A and a few from B and C,
until they feel they have a good mix of men, women,
blacks, whites, Latinos. Every pollster
has a 'secret' way of doing this. What it all means
to me is, what a messed up way to get accurate
results. No wonder why everybody is all over the
map.
Quote: EvenBobThis is a very accurate site for following whats going on with
electoral votes. Just 10 days ago Obama was quite a bit ahead
of Romney, now its almost a dead heat. Neither are anywhere
close to getting 270 yet.
Quote: a very accurate siteProbability of Reaching 270
Democrats 98%
Republicans 2%
Neither (Tie) < 1%
Quote: s2dbakerQuote: EvenBobThis is a very accurate site for following whats going on with
electoral votes. Just 10 days ago Obama was quite a bit ahead
of Romney, now its almost a dead heat. Neither are anywhere
close to getting 270 yet.
Yeah, you fail to show the post a few days later
when I said its not accurate at all. Its not what
you think it is, look closer.
You may retract your positive assessment of that very accurate site. For the record, I went through that thread and couldn't find your 'few days later' retraction. I did find this though:Quote: EvenBobYeah, you fail to show the post a few days later
when I said its not accurate at all. Its not what
you think it is, look closer.
Quote: s2dbakerYou may retract your positive assessment of that very accurate site. For the record, I went through that thread and couldn't find your 'few days later' retraction. I did find this though:
Its not in that thread. It was in response to something
the Wiz said about that site in another thread. But you
keep using it, just don't be surprised that its not what
you think it is.
Quote: EvenBobI'm having less and less respect for polls. I'm
hearing more this year on how they're done
and its very disappointing.
.
So, you're saying the same pollsters who overall predicted the wins going to the Republicans in 2010 are full of shit now?
rewind 2010:
Quote:The latest ABC News/Washington Post poll has the Republicans leading 53 percent to 40 percent on the generic ballot test, the largest lead either party has produced since 1981. The NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll has the GOP up 49 percent to 40 percent among registered voters.
Quote: kewljI didn't re-post all of your data in an effort to save space, pacomartin. If I understand correctly what you are saying, well 1992 thru 2012 is a 2 decade period not 3, but no matter. :)
What I meant was the Democrats made huge gains in 2008, 2006, and 1982 (3 decades). Other than that they have lost seats or made incremental gains.
The good news. The predictwise likelihood of a President Obama Victory has dropped from a high of 81% chance last week, back down to 77.5%. The likelihood of the democrats gaining control of the house, which was at 12% a couple weeks ago, and crept up to about 28% last week, has now dropped back to 21%. However the likelihood of a democrat controlled senate remains above 80%.
The bad news. Real clear politics, which again, uses an average of many different polls, republican and democrat alike, has now moved New Hampshire from toss-up to lean Obama in it's electorial college map. They also have moved Missouri from lean Romney to a toss up state. Their totals now stand at 269 for President Obama, 181 for Mr Romney with 7 toss up states totaling 88 electoral votes. If things played out as they now stand, Mr Romney would need to win each and every one of those 7 remaining swing states, and that would only force a tie. Obama currently leads in 5 of the 7 swings state polls.
Quote: kewljGood news/bad news for my Repub friends.
.
Bad news for Romney, his garbage man is speaking up.
http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/romney-garbage-man-ad-video-132521031--election.html
Quote: s2dbakerRomney just crushed Obama in that debate. .
It was bad when Obama started using words like
'cracker' and 'peckerwood' when Romney was talking.
It was playing the race card in a less than dignified
manner, I thought.
I really love Obama's accent here, why doesn't he talk
like this all the time. Surely this will help him, its shows
he's down with the cause. Its wonderful.
http://dailycaller.com/2012/10/02/obama-speech-jeremiah-wright-new-orleans
"Unlike you, I like firing people"
"At least my pet horse can dance."
"I stand by what I said, whatever it was"
"I'll bet you $10,000 that Seamus enjoyed that ride on the roof of the car"
"The rules are that you get to talk and then I get to talk, you just can't follow rules, can you"
"Some of my favorite Americans own sports teams and you, sir are not one of my favorite Americans"
Quote: EvenBobIts October. Surprise!
I really love Obama's accent here, why doesn't he talk
like this all the time. Surely this will help him, its shows
he's down with the cause. Its wonderful.
http://dailycaller.com/2012/10/02/obama-speech-jeremiah-wright-new-orleans
It's about time you posted some actual meat and potatoes stuff, EB. My white roommate in college started talking funny when 2 of his friends from Texarkana Arkansas showed up one weekend. So, I don't know if it's "Unpresidented".
Quote: s2dbakerIt's debate night and although I've already predicted that the main stream media and conservatives will declare Romney the winner
Obama can strangle a puppy tonight and drink vodka
from a hip flask and the mainstream media will say
he's the greatest. Wait and see.
Quote: EvenBobObama can strangle a puppy tonight and drink vodka
from a hip flask and the mainstream media will say
he's the greatest. Wait and see.
It'll be interesting to see what they say. I'm somewhat of an expert in this area, and I think that Romney is utterly kicking Obama's ass. Hard. It isn't even close here at the 60 minute mark. I doubt it'll close the gap, but another couple performances like this could make a real difference.
Quote: FinsRuleIs it possible to win a debate and still be the wrong choice for President? I hope so...
The challenger almost always wins the first
debate with an incumbent. Debates seldom
change the outcomes of elections.
Quote: JohnzimboThe worst.......moderator.....ever
Jim Lehrer is an institution, maybe the best American newsman in history. But he's too passive (and, probably, old) for this gig.
Quote: FinsRuleIs it possible to win a debate and still be the wrong choice for President? I hope so...
This is amazing. Romney is the more dynamic speaker. Who knew? He's getting a little snippy now, though (72nd minute), and that never goes over well.
Quote: s2dbakerOoo, Mitt got to say one of the zingers that he rehearsed!! Kudos to him.
Yeah, and it was a lie. How do you completely cut out the department of education without cutting federal education funding? He's really got to watch himself on that line of discussion...