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s2dbaker
s2dbaker
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September 23rd, 2012 at 6:58:12 PM permalink

November 7th is going to be great :)

(let me save you the trouble, Bob)
Quote: EvenBob

Because America will finally get rid of Barry HUSSEIN Obummer

No, because we'll finally be rid of Mitt Romney.
Someday, joor goin' to see the name of Googie Gomez in lights and joor goin' to say to joorself, "Was that her?" and then joor goin' to answer to joorself, "That was her!" But you know somethin' mister? I was always her yuss nobody knows it! - Googie Gomez
s2dbaker
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September 26th, 2012 at 4:42:05 PM permalink
Quote: s2dbaker

Quote: s2dbaker

Quote: EvenBob

Quote: rdw4potus

Obama is going to win handily, .

ROTFLMAO!!!

(I'm going to go ahead an jinx it)
Hey Bob, still rolling on the floor there?

Probability of Reaching 270
Democrats 92%
Republicans 7%
Neither (Tie) < 1%
Source

(I'm totally jinxing it now)
How's that election thing working out for Romney?

Probability of Reaching 270
Democrats 94%
Republicans 5%
Neither (Tie) < 1%

Wow!

Probability of Reaching 270
Democrats 97%
Republicans 3%
Neither (Tie) < 1%

Keep in mind that all of this is about today. Things can still go Romney's way. He can find a personality or a position that he hasn't taken both sides of or a competent bone on his body between now and election day. Heck, no one who is voting for Obama can name a single reason why he deserves four more years. This election is all Romney's for the taking.
Someday, joor goin' to see the name of Googie Gomez in lights and joor goin' to say to joorself, "Was that her?" and then joor goin' to answer to joorself, "That was her!" But you know somethin' mister? I was always her yuss nobody knows it! - Googie Gomez
rxwine
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September 26th, 2012 at 5:08:43 PM permalink
Quote: s2dbaker

[
Probability of Reaching 270
Democrats 97%
Republicans 3%
Neither (Tie) < 1%

Keep in mind that all of this is about today. Things can still go Romney's way. He can find a personality or a position that he hasn't taken both sides of or a competent bone on his body between now and election day. Heck, no one who is voting for Obama can name a single reason why he deserves four more years. This election is all Romney's for the taking.




There is a real danger for Democrats with high polls. Some people may be more likely to blow off voting if they have other things they need to take care of, thinking their vote won't make the difference.
There's no secret. Just know what you're talking about before you open your mouth.
s2dbaker
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September 27th, 2012 at 3:32:18 AM permalink
Quote: rxwine

There is a real danger for Democrats with high polls. Some people may be more likely to blow off voting if they have other things they need to take care of, thinking their vote won't make the difference.

Worry not. The house of Rasmussen is there to provide a poll that shows Mitt Romney in the lead. Even if the outlier Rasmussen wasn't there, complacency is not a problem for team Blue.

Gallup Tracking: Obama 50, Romney 44
Ipsos/Reuters Tracking: Obama 49, Romney 43 (Likely Voters); Obama 47, Romney 40 (Registered Voters)
Rasmussen Tracking: Romney 48, Obama 46
Selzer for Bloomberg: Obama 49, Romney 43
YouGov: Obama 48, Romney 43
Someday, joor goin' to see the name of Googie Gomez in lights and joor goin' to say to joorself, "Was that her?" and then joor goin' to answer to joorself, "That was her!" But you know somethin' mister? I was always her yuss nobody knows it! - Googie Gomez
WongBo
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September 27th, 2012 at 3:51:56 AM permalink
Come on, the DJIA has only gone up 5,400 (66%) since Obama took office, clearly a failure.
I mean let's look how much in went up under Bush..-2500 (-24%) .
We need Mitt to bring back that Republican magic...
In a bet, there is a fool and a thief. - Proverb.
kewlj
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September 27th, 2012 at 9:46:31 AM permalink
Real clear politics has moved Ohio from a toss up state to a 'lean Obama' state. That brings their total to 265 lean or solid Obama to 191 lean or solid Romney with 7 remaining toss up states (270 needed to win). No doubt, you media poll conspiracy theorists will think this move pre-mature. Remember that RCP uses an average of many polls, republican leaning data from fox news and rasmussen included, and the RCP average for Ohio is well above the margins of error. I guess time will tell if this move is pre-mature, but remember that early voting starts Monday in Ohio. This is significant because even if the race tightens later, as they somtimes do, a significant portion of that electorate may have already voted, when their was a wider gap. In other words. The election starts Monday. Romney is really running out of time.

I am not going to get into this polling conspiracy debate, where the republicans claim, some polls are over-sampling democrats. This kind of talk to me is one side just not liking what they are seeing very much and trying to justify it rather than accept what is clearly in front of them. Time will tell, however. I did find it interesting that just 2 nights ago, Karl Rove spent 15 minutes, laying out a path to a Romney win that did NOT include winning Ohio. That tells me that even 'the architect' realizes that Ohio is probably lost. And really, despite Mr Rove's best efforts, if Ohio goes Obama, the likelihood of a Romney presidency drops from the current 20% to about .5%.
Wizard
Administrator
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September 27th, 2012 at 10:33:18 AM permalink
Meanwhile, the odds keep shooting up for Obama. Today's Pinnacle lines:

Romney: +368
Obama: -442

My gut says that the election is already over unless Obama has a "47%" moment. I'm tempted to lay those odds on Obama.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
kewlj
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September 27th, 2012 at 10:50:12 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Meanwhile, the odds keep shooting up for Obama. Today's Pinnacle lines:

Romney: +368
Obama: -442

My gut says that the election is already over unless Obama has a "47%" moment. I'm tempted to lay those odds on Obama.



Yikes! When I wager, without an advantage, I tend to be an underdog guy. It's just a value thing. I could never lay those odds. I could never bet a horse at 1-5. Never lay 2 touchdowns in a pro football game. Never bet a pitcher at -250. Just not within my make-up. lol.

I think if I was going to wager on the election, I would bet Mr Romney at this point (+368), and hope that the election tightened up as they often tend to do, at least to the point that I could then bet Obama and make money either way.
Paradigm
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September 27th, 2012 at 10:53:37 AM permalink
InTrade has Obama at -310 (lay $7.56 to win $2.44, I think I did that right).....why is there such a big disparity out there.

Like you indicated, take Obama at InTrade and Romney at Pinnacle (Romney is +310, $2.44 to win $7.56 at InTrade). InTrade is a bit of a pain, I still have to get them some Utility Bills before they will free up my account to place a "trade".
AZDuffman
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September 27th, 2012 at 11:11:22 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Meanwhile, the odds keep shooting up for Obama. Today's Pinnacle lines:

Romney: +368
Obama: -442

My gut says that the election is already over unless Obama has a "47%" moment. I'm tempted to lay those odds on Obama.



Pretty aggressive odds what with the most accurate pollster in 2008 still having it tied and Obamas approval below 50%. People still think it is 2008.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
buzzpaff
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September 27th, 2012 at 11:22:35 AM permalink
President Dewey did not believe in the accuracy of polls.
rxwine
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September 27th, 2012 at 11:53:23 AM permalink
Quote: s2dbaker

Worry not. The house of Rasmussen is there to provide a poll that shows Mitt Romney in the lead. Even if the outlier Rasmussen wasn't there, complacency is not a problem for team Blue.



A couple years back, Nate Silver (the pollster anaylst) did a feature on Rasmussen, apparently showing how its polls come into line with others right around election day. Then they can take credit for accuracy, I assume.
There's no secret. Just know what you're talking about before you open your mouth.
kewlj
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September 27th, 2012 at 12:01:14 PM permalink
The presidents approval rating below 50% and the daily tracking average of popular vote just means that people don't think Obama has done a good job (pretty much mirrors my own feelings). BUT they don't think Romney can do any better and/or just don't like him. Both these stats are meaningless and insignificant. The odds are so 'aggressive', because we elect the president by electoral votes and even 'the most accurate pollster of 2008' has a significant advantage for the president in this breakdown.
s2dbaker
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September 27th, 2012 at 12:11:47 PM permalink
There is a great super-conspiracy among the pollsters to weight all of the data towards the democRAT side. Rasmussen did not get the memo and is therefore looking foolish for reporting the actual results. No, really!
Someday, joor goin' to see the name of Googie Gomez in lights and joor goin' to say to joorself, "Was that her?" and then joor goin' to answer to joorself, "That was her!" But you know somethin' mister? I was always her yuss nobody knows it! - Googie Gomez
EvenBob
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September 27th, 2012 at 1:48:42 PM permalink
Again, nobody seems to get it. This election has
nothing to do with Romney, its not his to win. Its
a referendum on Obama, its his election to lose.

Does anybody really think people will be pondering
Romney in the voting booth on Nov 6th? They'll
be thinking of Obama, and how they've done in the
last four years. Thats how it always works with an
incumbent in the WH. George Bush was hated in 2004
for Iraq and the Patriot Act and Gitmo. But people
pulled the curtain and voted him in again because
unemployment was low, there were lots of jobs, and
their wallets had no complaints.

Never underestimate the selfishness of a voter. Its his
ass he cares about, not yours, not his neighbors, and
certainly not the country's. How do you think Obama
will fare under the 'how's my wallet doing' scrutiny
in Nov. About like Carter did, running against an old
washed up B movie actor who's claim to fame was doing
Boraxo ad's on Death Vally Days. If you weren't there
in 1980, you have no idea what a running joke Ronald
'Bedtime for Bonzo' Reagan was. I was embarrassed to
vote for him, but I did because the election wasn't
about him, it was about getting rid of Carter.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
buzzpaff
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September 27th, 2012 at 2:32:45 PM permalink
I never understood why Reagan never appointed Water Slezak as Ambassador to Germany .
WongBo
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September 27th, 2012 at 3:11:20 PM permalink
Maybe because he was Austrian...
He was great in Lifeboat.
Remember his character on Batman?
can you name him?
clock king

In a bet, there is a fool and a thief. - Proverb.
buzzpaff
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September 27th, 2012 at 3:24:18 PM permalink
I just remember Slezak as Willi in " Lifeboat ". What a great performance.

Remember this line from the movie " What do you do with people like that? "

It is applicable even today, sad to say !
WongBo
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September 27th, 2012 at 4:05:38 PM permalink
Or this one..
Neither can a snake help being a rattlesnake if he's born a rattlesnake!
That don't make him a nightingale! Get him out of here!

Ok, this thread has been jacked.
I will stop now
In a bet, there is a fool and a thief. - Proverb.
s2dbaker
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September 27th, 2012 at 6:53:31 PM permalink
WooHoo!!! Team Blue is getting the Soros money now. I'm going to go check my mailbox for my Soros money :)
Someday, joor goin' to see the name of Googie Gomez in lights and joor goin' to say to joorself, "Was that her?" and then joor goin' to answer to joorself, "That was her!" But you know somethin' mister? I was always her yuss nobody knows it! - Googie Gomez
WongBo
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September 27th, 2012 at 7:05:38 PM permalink
Only a million? Shelly has given close to 70 to RMONEY et al.
In a bet, there is a fool and a thief. - Proverb.
s2dbaker
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September 27th, 2012 at 8:01:10 PM permalink
Quote: WongBo

Only a million? Shelly has given close to 70 to RMONEY et al.

Soros gives his money to the Obama voters directly by redistributing his wealth. It's more effective that way. Adelson just buys ads on TV stations that no one cares about, throwing his money down a drain. Just ask the proprietor of this website :) That's okay Wiz, you can wait until November 7th to tell us how you really feel.
Someday, joor goin' to see the name of Googie Gomez in lights and joor goin' to say to joorself, "Was that her?" and then joor goin' to answer to joorself, "That was her!" But you know somethin' mister? I was always her yuss nobody knows it! - Googie Gomez
rdw4potus
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September 27th, 2012 at 8:47:45 PM permalink
Quote: s2dbaker

Worry not. The house of Rasmussen is there to provide a poll that shows Mitt Romney in the lead. Even if the outlier Rasmussen wasn't there, complacency is not a problem for team Blue.

Gallup Tracking: Obama 50, Romney 44
Ipsos/Reuters Tracking: Obama 49, Romney 43 (Likely Voters); Obama 47, Romney 40 (Registered Voters)
Rasmussen Tracking: Romney 48, Obama 46
Selzer for Bloomberg: Obama 49, Romney 43
YouGov: Obama 48, Romney 43



Selzer for Bloomberg? Good for Ann! About time she got out of Iowa... That's the world's best pollster right here. Bar none.
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
EvenBob
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September 28th, 2012 at 9:15:57 PM permalink
I'm having less and less respect for polls. I'm
hearing more this year on how they're done
and its very disappointing.

First of all, the dirty secret no pollster tells us
is, of all the people who answer the phone, only
9% agree to take the poll. 9%! Thats less than
1 in 10. So what you get is a lot of people who
have a lot of time on their hands, not a true
cross section of anything.

Then, more than 70% of the people who agree
to do it are women. That won't do, so all pollsters
take a few from column A and a few from B and C,
until they feel they have a good mix of men, women,
blacks, whites, Latinos. Every pollster
has a 'secret' way of doing this. What it all means
to me is, what a messed up way to get accurate
results. No wonder why everybody is all over the
map.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
s2dbaker
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September 28th, 2012 at 9:55:15 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

This is a very accurate site for following whats going on with
electoral votes. Just 10 days ago Obama was quite a bit ahead
of Romney, now its almost a dead heat. Neither are anywhere
close to getting 270 yet.

Quote: a very accurate site

Probability of Reaching 270
Democrats 98%
Republicans 2%
Neither (Tie) < 1%

Someday, joor goin' to see the name of Googie Gomez in lights and joor goin' to say to joorself, "Was that her?" and then joor goin' to answer to joorself, "That was her!" But you know somethin' mister? I was always her yuss nobody knows it! - Googie Gomez
EvenBob
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September 28th, 2012 at 9:59:14 PM permalink
Quote: s2dbaker

Quote: EvenBob

This is a very accurate site for following whats going on with
electoral votes. Just 10 days ago Obama was quite a bit ahead
of Romney, now its almost a dead heat. Neither are anywhere
close to getting 270 yet.



Yeah, you fail to show the post a few days later
when I said its not accurate at all. Its not what
you think it is, look closer.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
FarFromVegas
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September 28th, 2012 at 10:08:58 PM permalink
Homer Simpson votes
Each of us is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own facts. Preparing for a fight about your bad decision is not as smart as making a good decision.
s2dbaker
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September 28th, 2012 at 10:09:29 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Yeah, you fail to show the post a few days later
when I said its not accurate at all. Its not what
you think it is, look closer.

You may retract your positive assessment of that very accurate site. For the record, I went through that thread and couldn't find your 'few days later' retraction. I did find this though:
Someday, joor goin' to see the name of Googie Gomez in lights and joor goin' to say to joorself, "Was that her?" and then joor goin' to answer to joorself, "That was her!" But you know somethin' mister? I was always her yuss nobody knows it! - Googie Gomez
EvenBob
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September 28th, 2012 at 10:25:08 PM permalink
Quote: s2dbaker

You may retract your positive assessment of that very accurate site. For the record, I went through that thread and couldn't find your 'few days later' retraction. I did find this though:



Its not in that thread. It was in response to something
the Wiz said about that site in another thread. But you
keep using it, just don't be surprised that its not what
you think it is.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
rxwine
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September 28th, 2012 at 11:12:50 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

I'm having less and less respect for polls. I'm
hearing more this year on how they're done
and its very disappointing.
.



So, you're saying the same pollsters who overall predicted the wins going to the Republicans in 2010 are full of shit now?


rewind 2010:
Quote:

The latest ABC News/Washington Post poll has the Republicans leading 53 percent to 40 percent on the generic ballot test, the largest lead either party has produced since 1981. The NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll has the GOP up 49 percent to 40 percent among registered voters.

There's no secret. Just know what you're talking about before you open your mouth.
pacomartin
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September 29th, 2012 at 3:52:28 AM permalink
Quote: kewlj

I didn't re-post all of your data in an effort to save space, pacomartin. If I understand correctly what you are saying, well 1992 thru 2012 is a 2 decade period not 3, but no matter. :)



What I meant was the Democrats made huge gains in 2008, 2006, and 1982 (3 decades). Other than that they have lost seats or made incremental gains.
kewlj
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October 2nd, 2012 at 3:18:28 PM permalink
Good news/bad news for my Repub friends.

The good news. The predictwise likelihood of a President Obama Victory has dropped from a high of 81% chance last week, back down to 77.5%. The likelihood of the democrats gaining control of the house, which was at 12% a couple weeks ago, and crept up to about 28% last week, has now dropped back to 21%. However the likelihood of a democrat controlled senate remains above 80%.

The bad news. Real clear politics, which again, uses an average of many different polls, republican and democrat alike, has now moved New Hampshire from toss-up to lean Obama in it's electorial college map. They also have moved Missouri from lean Romney to a toss up state. Their totals now stand at 269 for President Obama, 181 for Mr Romney with 7 toss up states totaling 88 electoral votes. If things played out as they now stand, Mr Romney would need to win each and every one of those 7 remaining swing states, and that would only force a tie. Obama currently leads in 5 of the 7 swings state polls.
EvenBob
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October 2nd, 2012 at 3:26:07 PM permalink
Quote: kewlj

Good news/bad news for my Repub friends.

.



Bad news for Romney, his garbage man is speaking up.

http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/romney-garbage-man-ad-video-132521031--election.html
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
FinsRule
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October 2nd, 2012 at 3:33:29 PM permalink
I registered to vote today! Sorry Bob...
s2dbaker
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October 2nd, 2012 at 4:09:19 PM permalink
Romney just crushed Obama in that debate. I think we'll see a sea change after that masterful performance that Mitt put on. Obama just didn't look very presidential when standing side by side with Mitt Romney.
Someday, joor goin' to see the name of Googie Gomez in lights and joor goin' to say to joorself, "Was that her?" and then joor goin' to answer to joorself, "That was her!" But you know somethin' mister? I was always her yuss nobody knows it! - Googie Gomez
EvenBob
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October 2nd, 2012 at 4:38:05 PM permalink
Quote: s2dbaker

Romney just crushed Obama in that debate. .



It was bad when Obama started using words like
'cracker' and 'peckerwood' when Romney was talking.
It was playing the race card in a less than dignified
manner, I thought.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
EvenBob
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October 2nd, 2012 at 6:19:33 PM permalink
Its October. Surprise!

I really love Obama's accent here, why doesn't he talk
like this all the time. Surely this will help him, its shows
he's down with the cause. Its wonderful.

http://dailycaller.com/2012/10/02/obama-speech-jeremiah-wright-new-orleans
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
s2dbaker
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October 2nd, 2012 at 7:26:35 PM permalink
It seems that you're coming around Bob and that's great news. If even you can be convinced that Barack HUSSEIN Obama is better for the country than Mitt Romney then there's still hope for America and all it took was a five year old clip that no one has ever seen before (except well, everyone). By the way, I'm really looking forward to hearing the rehearsed zingers that Mitt is going to unleash during the debate. Let's see if we can guess some in advance.

"Unlike you, I like firing people"
"At least my pet horse can dance."
"I stand by what I said, whatever it was"
"I'll bet you $10,000 that Seamus enjoyed that ride on the roof of the car"
"The rules are that you get to talk and then I get to talk, you just can't follow rules, can you"
"Some of my favorite Americans own sports teams and you, sir are not one of my favorite Americans"
Someday, joor goin' to see the name of Googie Gomez in lights and joor goin' to say to joorself, "Was that her?" and then joor goin' to answer to joorself, "That was her!" But you know somethin' mister? I was always her yuss nobody knows it! - Googie Gomez
rxwine
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October 2nd, 2012 at 7:28:01 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Its October. Surprise!

I really love Obama's accent here, why doesn't he talk
like this all the time. Surely this will help him, its shows
he's down with the cause. Its wonderful.

http://dailycaller.com/2012/10/02/obama-speech-jeremiah-wright-new-orleans




It's about time you posted some actual meat and potatoes stuff, EB. My white roommate in college started talking funny when 2 of his friends from Texarkana Arkansas showed up one weekend. So, I don't know if it's "Unpresidented".
There's no secret. Just know what you're talking about before you open your mouth.
FarFromVegas
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October 3rd, 2012 at 5:51:34 AM permalink
Each of us is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own facts. Preparing for a fight about your bad decision is not as smart as making a good decision.
s2dbaker
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October 3rd, 2012 at 5:27:33 PM permalink
It's debate night and although I've already predicted that the main stream media and conservatives will declare Romney the winner, I thought I would share a memory from four years ago when they declared John McCain the winner.

Someday, joor goin' to see the name of Googie Gomez in lights and joor goin' to say to joorself, "Was that her?" and then joor goin' to answer to joorself, "That was her!" But you know somethin' mister? I was always her yuss nobody knows it! - Googie Gomez
EvenBob
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October 3rd, 2012 at 6:07:19 PM permalink
Quote: s2dbaker

It's debate night and although I've already predicted that the main stream media and conservatives will declare Romney the winner



Obama can strangle a puppy tonight and drink vodka
from a hip flask and the mainstream media will say
he's the greatest. Wait and see.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
rdw4potus
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October 3rd, 2012 at 7:00:22 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Obama can strangle a puppy tonight and drink vodka
from a hip flask and the mainstream media will say
he's the greatest. Wait and see.



It'll be interesting to see what they say. I'm somewhat of an expert in this area, and I think that Romney is utterly kicking Obama's ass. Hard. It isn't even close here at the 60 minute mark. I doubt it'll close the gap, but another couple performances like this could make a real difference.
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
FinsRule
FinsRule
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October 3rd, 2012 at 7:03:28 PM permalink
Is it possible to win a debate and still be the wrong choice for President? I hope so...
Johnzimbo
Johnzimbo
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October 3rd, 2012 at 7:05:42 PM permalink
The worst.......moderator.....ever
EvenBob
EvenBob
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October 3rd, 2012 at 7:09:26 PM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

Is it possible to win a debate and still be the wrong choice for President? I hope so...



The challenger almost always wins the first
debate with an incumbent. Debates seldom
change the outcomes of elections.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
rdw4potus
rdw4potus
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October 3rd, 2012 at 7:11:37 PM permalink
Quote: Johnzimbo

The worst.......moderator.....ever



Jim Lehrer is an institution, maybe the best American newsman in history. But he's too passive (and, probably, old) for this gig.
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
rdw4potus
rdw4potus
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October 3rd, 2012 at 7:12:37 PM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

Is it possible to win a debate and still be the wrong choice for President? I hope so...



This is amazing. Romney is the more dynamic speaker. Who knew? He's getting a little snippy now, though (72nd minute), and that never goes over well.
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
s2dbaker
s2dbaker
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October 3rd, 2012 at 7:22:53 PM permalink
Ooo, Mitt got to say one of the zingers that he rehearsed!! Kudos to him.
Someday, joor goin' to see the name of Googie Gomez in lights and joor goin' to say to joorself, "Was that her?" and then joor goin' to answer to joorself, "That was her!" But you know somethin' mister? I was always her yuss nobody knows it! - Googie Gomez
rdw4potus
rdw4potus
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Joined: Mar 11, 2010
October 3rd, 2012 at 7:26:00 PM permalink
Quote: s2dbaker

Ooo, Mitt got to say one of the zingers that he rehearsed!! Kudos to him.



Yeah, and it was a lie. How do you completely cut out the department of education without cutting federal education funding? He's really got to watch himself on that line of discussion...
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
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