tringlomane
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March 16th, 2020 at 10:52:39 PM permalink
Quote: onenickelmiracle

It's possible, but that would mean you were exposed to it 4-6 weeks earlier though. A quick little google search allows for it to be possible on the timeline, but we didn't have anyone dying here then from COVID19. Sigh, probably not the case you had it already. There is some chance you can become reinfected even if you did, even by the same identical strain. Our bodies aren't well prepared to fight this, people google yourself. It's not what you heard or what you know, there might be exceptions to common sense on this one.



4 to 6 weeks earlier? It usually doesn't stay that latent. Most people show some symptoms by Day 5. It's anywhere from 2 to 14 days.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/symptoms-testing/symptoms.html?CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fcoronavirus%2F2019-ncov%2Fabout%2Fsymptoms.html

So he definitely could have had coronavirus. Or just the flu. Either could do the same thing. This is why aggressive testing is a positive thing. Keep feeling well michael99000.

I have terribly mild symptoms of some illness in the last 24 hours, so I'm being paranoid about going to the casino this past week (Wednesday and Sunday). No fever (one of the bigger signs of coronavirus) yet, fortunately.
gordonm888
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March 16th, 2020 at 11:12:43 PM permalink
Quote: TomG

There is a huge middle ground between those two possibilities. It is possible almost everyone gets this virus. But the longer it is spread out, the better. If it takes 30 months to infect the majority of us, it will be a far smaller burden on our medical system, with better treatments developed over that time, than if it happens within the next few months.



Of course I know that when it is spread out that it is a smaller burden on our medical system. But I have a wife that is on chemotherapy and her immune system is suppressed. She is the poster child for the kind of person that Coronavirus kills. So, whether medical systems get over-burdened is not my immediate concern.

My interest is in whether my wife lives or dies. If "everybody gets this virus" then there is a significant chance that she will die. And "better treatments" in the future? Maybe, but in 2020 there still is no treatment to control or cure any virus - HIV, herpes, Covid-19 - no frigging treatment. So, I'm not holding my breath.

I fantasize about putting my wife in my car and driving to West Virginia. The only place where there is no coronavirus.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
TomG
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March 16th, 2020 at 11:34:42 PM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

Of course I know that when it is spread out that it is a smaller burden on our medical system. But I have a wife that is on chemotherapy and her immune system is suppressed. She is the poster child for the kind of person that Coronavirus kills. So, whether medical systems get over-burdened is not my immediate concern.



A smaller burden means more doctors and ventilators available, as well as immediate hospitalization, and whatever other resources are necessary to increases survival rates for everyone, included those at the greatest risk.

There are a lot of very successful treatments available for HIV: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HIV/AIDS#Treatment
onenickelmiracle
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March 17th, 2020 at 12:00:27 AM permalink
Quote: tringlomane

4 to 6 weeks earlier? It usually doesn't stay that latent. Most people show some symptoms by Day 5. It's anywhere from 2 to 14 days.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/symptoms-testing/symptoms.html?CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fcoronavirus%2F2019-ncov%2Fabout%2Fsymptoms.html

So he definitely could have had coronavirus. Or just the flu. Either could do the same thing. This is why aggressive testing is a positive thing. Keep feeling well michael99000.

I have terribly mild symptoms of some illness in the last 24 hours, so I'm being paranoid about going to the casino this past week (Wednesday and Sunday). No fever (one of the bigger signs of coronavirus) yet, fortunately.



Hello, I'm misunderstood. He said he was sick 3 weeks ago. I didn't know off hand how long before symptoms someone can experience symptoms, so was vague for this reason.
I'm a lot unlikely to think he had had it, because I think we would have seen deaths. Maybe we weren't testing people 3 weeks ago, but surely infectious disease Drs would have known from cultures of others that would have been dying. They don't need tests if they're running cultures, it is a test, but not a test for the disease only.
I am a robot.
rawtuff
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March 17th, 2020 at 12:11:04 AM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

This situation is going to go 1 of 2 ways:

#1. About 80% of the US population gets infected with COVID-19, either over one month or over 7-8 months. There are > 1 million deaths of elderly people and people with underlying conditions. Eventually the US population gains immunity and the virus stops spreading.

#2 The shutdowns and social distancing work to contain the spread of the disease. <20,000 deaths. We continue to lock down our borders and we develop a vaccine.

We all want #2, none of us can be certain that its possible. I want to work to give #2 scenario a chance, but if it goes the way of #1 I want my wife and I to be in the 20% that don't get infected by the disease.
******************************
The difference between this disease and influenza and SARs, etc. : Covid-19 is highly transmissible!!! And Covid-19 is 10x more lethal than flu on average. The "on average' qualifier is important; the COVID-19 is less lethal than influenza for young people but is much greater than 10X more lethal than influenza for old people. Fatality rates of 5-13% for elderly people in China, and rumors that the rates are even higher in Europe. So, older Americans are extremely concerned.



I'm afraid #2 is unlikely, every scientific prognosis I've read or interview with top health care authority I've watched says the whole point of the shutdowns and social distancing is to flatten the curve of the speed of contagion, but almost inevitable the same or close to the same percentage will be infected anyways, the big question is how fast. A vaccine being ready and successfully deployed worldwide is pretty far in the future and naturally build herd immunity needs about 80% of the population to be immune in order to work.
Don't beat yourself up over past mistakes, you are going to f*** up again in the future, quite possibly in the most spectacular fashion, why worry about yesterday's f*** up's when you have tomorrow's f*** up's to look forward to? You are a f*** up, and f***** up is part of your growth process, embrace the process.
beachbumbabs
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petroglyph
March 17th, 2020 at 12:57:55 AM permalink
Timelines: Feb 2 was the last day people were allowed to travel back to the US from China without severe restrictions. That was 6 weeks ago yesterday.

There are 2 reasons for all this wholesale shutdown.

1. We don't know where it is because there hasn't been any testing to speak of, still don't as of today. So they have to stop everything until they can pinpoint where it is, isolate it, and break the chain of infection. Once that's done, a lot of things can open back up, keeping the infected areas isolated until the infection dies within each area.

2. People don't get sick fast enough after they get it. Young people don't get as sick as older people. So a lot of people are carriers for a few days to a week, and a lot of those, even when they get sick, if they're healthy otherwise, they can have a mild case, maybe not even change anything they're doing . But all that time, they're infecting other people, shedding the virus every where they go.

So, until they can get millions of tests deployed, which they think will be by the end of the month, shutting everything down will slow the rate of transmission, because people won't be around each other.

Closing schools isn't so much about keeping the kids safe, really, because the virus is very low young fatality - virtually none below age 10, and a small number below age 19. It's about the kids getting it through school and bringing it home to their parents, grandparents, and other older adults.

In contrast to the kids, my mortality rate is 15-20%. My mom, who I'm caregiving, is 30-40% statistically, but with her particular issues, it will be fatal - it's that simple. So we're already in lockdown, but I'm also lucky: we have enough retirement income between us we can manage isolation pretty well. I just have to be super-conscious about washing up and limit my contact. She hasn't left the house in 3 weeks.

Back to generalities:

Slowing it down is primarily about keeping the fatalities to a minimum, both by keeping the serious cases needing hospitalization to a level the hospitals can handle, and delaying the saturation of the infection as long as possible in hopes of an effective vaccine being developed in time.

But a majority of us WILL get it. We have no immunity to it as a species. It travels too easily, lives too long on surfaces, and infects without symptoms for entirely too long.

The best experts expect, with a population in the US of 339 million, that 70 million to 150 million will get it. With a 3.4% mortality rate, (which is 34x the rate of regular flu at .1%) that's 2.5 to 5 million dead this year, if they don't break the chain. Most of those who die will have some other illness that weakens them enough to succumb, but many now-healthy people will not survive either.

So, everyone is being asked to pull together on this. If you're young and healthy, you're probably going to survive it. But the more you go out, or do stuff like normal, the more likely you are to bring it back with you right now (without testing), and kill family or friends. Yeah, that sounds ridiculous or surreal, even to me writing it, but that's the real situation.

Just take a break from the world, guys. Hunker down with the video games, the internet, books, streaming, the people you love, whatever. Everybody will understand, if not now, in a couple of months, why you're not at that party, that bar, that casino.

Without getting into the forbidden area of politics, in this situation, the ONLY people to listen to are the epidemiologists and virologists, and NOBODY who's got any reason other than your health and that of those around you, should be believed.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
FleaStiff
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March 17th, 2020 at 3:36:51 AM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs


2. People don't get sick fast enough after they get it. Young people don't get as sick as older people. So a lot of people are carriers for a few days to a week, and a lot of those, even when they get sick, if they're healthy otherwise, they can have a mild case, maybe not even change anything they're doing . But all that time, they're infecting other people, shedding the virus every where they go.

They are shedding virus which have the potential to infect others. Vigilant sanitizing of that escalator's handrail and the shopping cart's handle should greatly diminish actual transmission.

Quote: beachbunbabs

Closing schools isn't so much about keeping the kids safe, really, because the virus is very low young fatality - virtually none below age 10, and a small number below age 19. It's about the kids getting it through school and bringing it home to their parents, grandparents, and other older adults.

This is our chosen mechanism for all viruses, is this virus really all that different?

Quote: beachbumbabs

In contrast to the kids, my mortality rate is 15-20%. My mom, who I'm caregiving, is 30-40% statistically, but with her particular issues, it will be fatal - it's that simple. So we're already in lockdown, but I'm also lucky: we have enough retirement income between us we can manage isolation pretty well. I just have to be super-conscious about washing up and limit my contact. She hasn't left the house in 3 weeks.

Good luck to each of you. It is fortunate that the "retirement income" provides an opportunity for a lockdown. In the Poor House a lockdown end foodbanks, gyms, most social interaction and intensifies exposure risk to MoW volunteers as well as Deliverymen dropping off necessities as well as necessaries.

Quote: beachbumbabs

Just take a break from the world, guys. Hunker down with the video games, the internet, books, streaming, the people you love, whatever. Everybody will understand, if not now, in a couple of months, why you're not at that party, that bar, that casino.

Marvelous. You are in a good situation to do that. Here at the poorhouse there are few that read books or can get them delivered. The miserable on-premises "library" is closed because it is a place of congregation. In this place, comic books are probably considered "higher literature" by all the addlebrained inmates to whom "intellect" is a terrible insult. I wish there was a Books On Wheels service. I wish I could retain Basic Strategy. I wish I could remember if I had my morning coffee. I wish there were better movies"included with Amazon" rather than only available with Subscriptions to Premium Services. Well, enough typing, its time for me to go back to my three-pound dunbells.
AZDuffman
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March 17th, 2020 at 3:48:50 AM permalink
Quote: FleaStiff



Marvelous. You are in a good situation to do that. Here at the poorhouse there are few that read books or can get them delivered. The miserable on-premises "library" is closed because it is a place of congregation. In this place, comic books are probably considered "higher literature" by all the addlebrained inmates to whom "intellect" is a terrible insult. I wish there was a Books On Wheels service. I wish I could retain Basic Strategy. I wish I could remember if I had my morning coffee. I wish there were better movies"included with Amazon" rather than only available with Subscriptions to Premium Services. Well, enough typing, its time for me to go back to my three-pound dunbells.



This is a very, very good point. To some people this ranges from "inconvenient" to a sort of "police state fantasy camp." Due to very good luck in timing I am good for months assuming I can get basic food at the grocery store. If some stock plays work out I could make some very nice coin and set myself up to have a nice side income selling covered calls for years. I have so far lost less than $500 in lost dealing gigs. When this settles down and mortgage rates fall yet again I will be steadily employed for some time.

At the same time I feel extremely bad for all the people getting creamed by it all. Dealers at the casino who live paycheck to paycheck. The owner of the small coffeehouse down the road. Lets be honest, almost anyone in the direct services industry. If you know what it is to be just a paycheck or two ahead, and I am one who does, then you must ask if this is all worth it.

I am not going to start yet another thread about how this will financially effect various ones of us, but it would be interesting to hear.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
beachbumbabs
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March 17th, 2020 at 4:03:49 AM permalink
They are saying, yes, this virus is significantly different than other known viruses in that it ISN'T killing very young children or children in utero.

There is thought to be quite a bit of significance to that difference, because there are t-cells, stem cells and other chemical and physiological differences between adults and kids at the cellular level, and possibly something their bodies are doing that adult bodies no longer do. This could be key to fighting not just this but perhaps one or more classes of coronaviruses. Possibly even bigger than that, but I'm not qualified to speculate, and would hate to offer false hope.

Fleastiff, you, petroglyph, greasyjohn, and several other folks are among my concerns here. It's going to be very difficult in days to come. I'm not in a position to be of much help, because things are challenging here, but if I can, PM me and tell me what I can do.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
onenickelmiracle
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March 17th, 2020 at 5:51:08 AM permalink
I'm convinced now this save the most people strategy is going to fail, because the majority of people do not have an incentive to hole up for too long at personal expense. Millions of people are going to be out of work, so others can live and also benefit financially by living to spend their money. I had a life to live, and it pretty much makes no sense for me if things work out perfectly in just a lives perspective. I'm still going to have bills and obligations., almost a complete loss of opportunity. Let's say the neighbors across the street are worth 4 million. They have a 20% chance of dying, they're not going to give me $800,000 if they live. See how this doesn't make sense long term. In 2 months, every hospital in America will be burned down, that's the kind of chaos we're looking at. It's just one giant, middle child sacrifice.

People always talk about how the federal government is too powerful, they're not even close to having any real power. All this money they tax and spend, you would think somehow capable of magic wanding this, but they're not and our own president is likely to die from this. How is he not going to get this, he is exposed to literally millions of people just by the virtue of being exposed to hundreds. You saw him at the podiums with multitudes of strangers standing right behind him. For his exposure to be low, he needs a bubble suit of his own, or needs to be locked up in some room like a prison cell. Think about this, if he lives, it'll be discontent, and if he dies, it'll be a president, young, unlikely to die from this virus.
I am a robot.
SOOPOO
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March 17th, 2020 at 7:15:05 AM permalink
Quote: michael99000

About 3 weeks ago , before this whole thing had really blown up , I had a night where I had a high fever and chills and a runny nose. I just assumed it was the flu or some virus. The next morning I woke up feeling even worse. I rested all day. The morning after that i woke up feeling ok. Now I’m wondering if I had the coronavirus and got over it with just two days of symptoms. My symptoms do match how it’s described as being.



Unless you traveled to an affected area there is a 99.9%+ chance it was not coronavirus. (I'm assuming you are in the USA). If it happened today it is somewhere between 95 and 99.9% chance it is not coronavirus. If you live in New Rochelle I'll change the odds.

But your point is valid. Hopefully millions will get it and react like you did.
FleaStiff
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March 17th, 2020 at 7:33:07 AM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

Possibly even bigger than that, but I'm not qualified to speculate, and would hate to offer false hope.


youtube offerings:
MEDSimlified .... 25 .... minutes Immune System Made Easy
Pyhysiology for Students .... 67 minutes .... Lecture 19 Immune System
Dr. Najeeb .... 87 Minutes .... Helper T-cells CD-4 Immune System
Andrew Wolf .... 29 minutes .... Innate Immune System
Stanford Health .... 84 Minutes .... Nutritional Considerations Immune System

Quote: beachbumbags

I'm not in a position to be of much help, because things are challenging here, but if I can, PM me and tell me what I can do.

Stay safe, stay happy.
TigerWu
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March 17th, 2020 at 8:08:07 AM permalink
Meanwhile, where I work, we're having a St. Patrick's Day party.

How's that for social distancing?
billryan
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March 17th, 2020 at 8:25:20 AM permalink
Quote: TigerWu

Meanwhile, where I work, we're having a St. Patrick's Day party.

How's that for social distancing?



Mandatory attendance?
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
TigerWu
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March 17th, 2020 at 8:29:18 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

Mandatory attendance?



Technically, no. I can just sit in my office all day if I wanted to. So I'll probably just grab some food and do just that.
FleaStiff
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March 17th, 2020 at 9:29:30 AM permalink
Quote: TigerWu

Meanwhile, where I work, we're having a St. Patrick's Day party.
How's that for social distancing?

One of my great regrets is lack of a Guinness or two, particularly since a nearby "local" has a really generous spread of homemade corned beef and cabbage instead of the usual skimpy portions that bars usually serve. This year I guess its not even open.
EvenBob
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March 17th, 2020 at 10:31:16 AM permalink
Apparently it's so bad in Italy because
they have the 2nd oldest pop in the
world, almost 25% are over 65. Japan
has 28% and they have it under control.

The lifestyle of Millennials in Italy is
to have a job and live with grandma
and gramps, sponging off them so
they have no rent to pay and can live a
lifestyle way above their pay grade.
Partying and mingling with other
spongers 3-4 nights a week and taking
the virus home and killing their meal
tickets. Who could see that coming.

US has 16% over 65. Outside the minority
areas, not nearly as many Millennials
living with grandparents. They sponge
off their parents instead.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
darkoz
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March 17th, 2020 at 11:17:30 AM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Apparently it's so bad in Italy because
they have the 2nd oldest pop in the
world, almost 25% are over 65. Japan
has 28% and they have it under control.

The lifestyle of Millennials in Italy is
to have a job and live with grandma
and gramps, sponging off them so
they have no rent to pay and can live a
lifestyle way above their pay grade.
Partying and mingling with other
spongers 3-4 nights a week and taking
the virus home and killing their meal
tickets. Who could see that coming.

US has 16% over 65. Outside the minority
areas, not nearly as many Millennials
living with grandparents. They sponge
off their parents instead.



That's funny

I thought all the minorities we're getting pregnant and living off the government with section 8 housing while allowing their significant others to sponge off living secretly with them. Now they're living with their grandparents?
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
LuckyPhow
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March 17th, 2020 at 1:24:44 PM permalink
Quote: onenickelmiracle

Can I get another answer longer than 4 words Yoda? A sucker is born every minute, ok. Your implication about that?



You are welcome to your opinion, but, I'm with Bill here. PT Barnum was great at diverting people's attention. Your attention seems diverted so far from the world I see, that the Barnum reference is timely. Timely as an observation only (not as a personal insult). So please help me. I don't understand what kind of proof you need to take the pandemic seriously?

Italy is in lock-down, and most of Europe is following. IIRC, China was on full lock-down for a while, too. Wait another week, and you may see this country going all-in on an American-style version of "National Shutdown."

Some WoV members -- including the WoO himself -- said this scare wouldn't shut the Las Vegas casinos. But, today: all shut down, right? It is very easy to catch the virus, and some casino staff already test positive. If we guess wrong about the pandemic, overwhelmed Las Vegas medical facilities might be doing C-virus triage in tents all summer.

Is this "media-scare vs real crisis" still a 50-50 proposition for you? Are there any facts to support such "balance" when faced with all that is happening?

Please take the pandemic seriously.
lilredrooster
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March 17th, 2020 at 1:24:50 PM permalink
I feel like we're all living inside a really, really bad sci fi movie

and we can't bust through the hallucination and get back to reality
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
DRich
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March 17th, 2020 at 1:33:20 PM permalink
I must be completely heartless. I find this whole thing very interesting and entertaining. I haven't had this much fun with current events since the first Iraqi war. I will except a few hundred thousand deaths as the price for my entertainment.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
TigerWu
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March 17th, 2020 at 1:40:08 PM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

I feel like we're all living inside a really, really bad sci fi movie



We've been living in a bad movie since 9/11. I'm convinced the fall of the Twin Towers ripped a hole in the space time continuum and altered reality on a quantum level.

My other working theory is that I died in the Iraq War and I'm stuck in a purgatory or something.
Face
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beachbumbabs
March 17th, 2020 at 1:48:44 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs


So, everyone is being asked to pull together on this.



In that spirit...

I heard an interview with a guy whose name and title I cannot remember; I just remember he's one of the folks on the front lines and is THE source of the 80 / 15 / 5 number everyone keeps quoting. He came on to make some points, two of which bear repeating.

This. Is. Not. "the flu". The flu itself is already warped in its meaning where any bubble gut or period of unrest is "bit of the flu". He made it a point to remind folks that the actual flu is no "little". It's 8hrs of scared you're gonna die followed by 24 where you wish you would. It kills tens of thousands. The word's been so bastardized it means almost nothing, and so using it in relation to Covid is idiocy of the highest order. There is no vax, like with the flu. There's no history of wtf is gonna happen to you a month a year a decade from now, like the flu. Assuming you survive the flu, about your only side effect is being 20lbs lighter. With this, the side effect might be permanent loss of 20% of your lung function. Not to be alarmist, but if you're using these terms, you yourself are a danger to you and everyone around you.

The second was a bit of an apology for the exact ideas being mentioned in this forum. He said he made it a point to be even keeled and level headed, and knew that panic was a real danger he had responsibility over. He said he made that 80 / 15 / 5 comment with that in mind, and now that he's seeing it play out, went back to clarify as he's worried about what he's seeing. He says the "80% mild" cases aren't mild in that you have the sniffles and that's it. He said "mild" runs the gamut from nearly no symptoms all the way to double pneumonia with permanent lung damage. Read that last again. That's your "mild" you're not all that worried about; all the way up to permanent disability, but if you don't need someone to breathe for you, it's "mild". The "15% severe" are people who need intubation, respirators, ICU stays, hospitalization, or they die. The 5% are hopeless.

If you've never had to survive before, consider this your wake up call. If you think "someone else" is gonna take care of it, I just found out my federal job has been hosting the g/f of a quarantined man on the workforce. And she comes to work every f#$%ing day. She's the one that gives every carrier their mail for the day. This, in a county that's already shut and already on red alert.

Get Your Head In The Game.
The opinions of this moderator are for entertainment purposes only.
rxwine
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March 17th, 2020 at 2:01:35 PM permalink
And btw, the flu is still gonna work its numbers as well this year. Though 19 may get to them first. You could even get both at the same time.
You probably won't have to worry about being alive long though if such is the case.
Sanitized for Your Protection
lilredrooster
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March 17th, 2020 at 2:15:57 PM permalink
Quote: TigerWu

We've been living in a bad movie since 9/11. I'm convinced the fall of the Twin Towers ripped a hole in the space time continuum and altered reality on a quantum level.

My other working theory is that I died in the Iraq War and I'm stuck in a purgatory or something.





when I was a little boy I believed I was the only real person on the planet
everybody else was a robot

I thought God was testing me to see if I was any good
and if I was he'd put some more real people on the earth
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
TDVegas
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March 17th, 2020 at 2:16:35 PM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

I feel like we're all living inside a really, really bad sci fi movie

and we can't bust through the hallucination and get back to reality


Very true....I’m waiting to see Rod Serling appear on my TV.

Tough times.
rawtuff
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March 17th, 2020 at 2:27:09 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

I must be completely heartless. I find this whole thing very interesting and entertaining. I haven't had this much fun with current events since the first Iraqi war. I will except a few hundred thousand deaths as the price for my entertainment.



Really? Even if some of them are (hypothetically) all of your relatives, friends and loved ones? You are still accepting their deaths for the entertainment?
Don't beat yourself up over past mistakes, you are going to f*** up again in the future, quite possibly in the most spectacular fashion, why worry about yesterday's f*** up's when you have tomorrow's f*** up's to look forward to? You are a f*** up, and f***** up is part of your growth process, embrace the process.
DRich
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March 17th, 2020 at 2:34:26 PM permalink
Quote: rawtuff

Really? Even if some of them are (hypothetically) all of your relatives, friends and loved ones? You are still accepting their deaths for the entertainment?



Yes, I probably only have 15 or so people that I really care about so the odds are with me that none will be them.. If it is, que sera sera.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
rawtuff
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March 17th, 2020 at 2:59:32 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

Yes, I probably only have 15 or so people that I really care about so the odds are with me that none will be them.. If it is, que sera sera.



Well, if everyone had the same reasoning as you and the governments did nothing to contain and slow the contagion the number of infected would grow exponentially until about 70% of the population is infected and either die or recover and build the needed herd immunity for the rest still uninfected to be protected. Current mortality rate for COVID19 is about 3.5% so that means about 2.5% of the total population would've died. That's 1 in 40, so you'd have about what, 38% chance at least one of your closest people die. Not sure if that's right. But majority of people have maybe about 40-50 people close to them - relatives and close friends. So on average every single person that has survived would have lost a dear one in that scenario. But I'm not icluding all those that would die due to unavailability of proper medical care because of the total health care system collapse that would have followed. So the chances are much higher actually.

Luckily not everyone has the same reasoning as you.
Don't beat yourself up over past mistakes, you are going to f*** up again in the future, quite possibly in the most spectacular fashion, why worry about yesterday's f*** up's when you have tomorrow's f*** up's to look forward to? You are a f*** up, and f***** up is part of your growth process, embrace the process.
EvenBob
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March 17th, 2020 at 3:02:55 PM permalink
Kentucky Derby cancelled till the fall.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
DRich
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March 17th, 2020 at 3:03:53 PM permalink
Quote: rawtuff

Well, if everyone had the same reasoning as you and the governments did nothing to contain and slow the contagion the number of infected would grow exponentially until about 70% of the population is infected and either die or recover and build the needed herd immunity for the rest still uninfected to be protected. Current mortality rate for COVID19 is about 3.5% so that means about 2.5% of the total population would've died. That's 1 in 40, so you'd have about what, 38% chance at least one of your closest people die. Not sure if that's right. But majority of people have maybe about 40-50 people close to them - relatives and close friends. So on average every single person would have lost a dear one in that scenario. But I'm not icluding all those that would die due to unavailability of proper medical care because of the total health care system collapse that would have followed. So the chances are much higher actually.

Luckily not everyone has the same reasoning as you.



I am not saying that we should do nothing, I am just saying that I am enjoying the drama.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
odiousgambit
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beachbumbabs
March 17th, 2020 at 3:08:45 PM permalink
Quote: Face

This. Is. Not. "the flu". The flu itself is already warped in its meaning where any bubble gut or period of unrest is "bit of the flu". He made it a point to remind folks that the actual flu is no "little". It's 8hrs of scared you're gonna die followed by 24 where you wish you would. It kills tens of thousands. The word's been so bastardized it means almost nothing, and so using it in relation to Covid is idiocy of the highest order. There is no vax, like with the flu. There's no history of wtf is gonna happen to you a month a year a decade from now, like the flu. Assuming you survive the flu, about your only side effect is being 20lbs lighter. With this, the side effect might be permanent loss of 20% of your lung function. Not to be alarmist, but if you're using these terms, you yourself are a danger to you and everyone around you.

emphasis mine. Wizard, and those of your ilk, are you listening?

admittedly I'm well into my cups now
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
rawtuff
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March 17th, 2020 at 3:09:47 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

I am not saying that we should do nothing, I am just saying that I am enjoying the drama.



Oh, many are. But when it hits their own home and the chances are huge that it will even with all the measures, then it's not that enjoyable anymore.
Don't beat yourself up over past mistakes, you are going to f*** up again in the future, quite possibly in the most spectacular fashion, why worry about yesterday's f*** up's when you have tomorrow's f*** up's to look forward to? You are a f*** up, and f***** up is part of your growth process, embrace the process.
rxwine
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March 17th, 2020 at 3:51:44 PM permalink
If people want to have semi-normal business, like say a restaurant. Patronize your restaurant of choice but realize after capacity is possibly as low as 1/3 you should plan to carry it out. And space out your lines outside. But restaurants with reservation systems should use them and those without should see if they can to keep traffic modulated.

In fact places that don't normally do appointments should probably use them.
Sanitized for Your Protection
DRich
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March 17th, 2020 at 4:14:24 PM permalink
Quote: rawtuff

Oh, many are. But when it hits their own home and the chances are huge that it will even with all the measures, then it's not that enjoyable anymore.



I expect to be out of a job in 2 or 3 days so it will definitely be hitting me financially.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
onenickelmiracle
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March 17th, 2020 at 5:00:36 PM permalink
Quote: LuckyPhow

You are welcome to your opinion, but, I'm with Bill here. PT Barnum was great at diverting people's attention. Your attention seems diverted so far from the world I see, that the Barnum reference is timely. Timely as an observation only (not as a personal insult). So please help me. I don't understand what kind of proof you need to take the pandemic seriously?

Italy is in lock-down, and most of Europe is following. IIRC, China was on full lock-down for a while, too. Wait another week, and you may see this country going all-in on an American-style version of "National Shutdown."

Some WoV members -- including the WoO himself -- said this scare wouldn't shut the Las Vegas casinos. But, today: all shut down, right? It is very easy to catch the virus, and some casino staff already test positive. If we guess wrong about the pandemic, overwhelmed Las Vegas medical facilities might be doing C-virus triage in tents all summer.

Is this "media-scare vs real crisis" still a 50-50 proposition for you? Are there any facts to support such "balance" when faced with all that is happening?

Please take the pandemic seriously.

I'm not the one saying I believe it, I'm saying what if? What is the 1% or less possibility I'm saying. Everything is going to be closed, food might be hard to come by, the casinos are going to be closed where people could withdraw large sums of US cash, everyone will be huddled inside their houses with little contact to the outside world unless the internet and cell networks go out. There is a possibility yet, this could be fake, because if it were fake or if it were real, it would be a great time to pull something big off. If there is this much contagion out there, Donald Trump almost has to get sick and so do many of the members of Congress. It's possible, all I'm saying.
I am a robot.
SOOPOO
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March 17th, 2020 at 5:09:01 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

I must be completely heartless. I find this whole thing very interesting and entertaining. I haven't had this much fun with current events since the first Iraqi war. I will except a few hundred thousand deaths as the price for my entertainment.



Maybe time for a suspension for me. Your posts have become more and more insensitive and repulsive.

Your disdain for the rest of the board members (and humanity in general) is disgusting.

I am asking you kindly to keep your sociopathic posts in your mind on not on this forum.
rxwine
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beachbumbabsrawtuff
March 17th, 2020 at 5:42:25 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Maybe time for a suspension for me. Your posts have become more and more insensitive and repulsive.

Your disdain for the rest of the board members (and humanity in general) is disgusting.

I am asking you kindly to keep your sociopathic posts in your mind on not on this forum.



DRich said somewhere, something like existence is meaningless or pointless. But I believe his response is backward. The ultimate challenge is to look into bleakness, blackness of meaninglessness and still want to go on.
Sanitized for Your Protection
DRich
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March 17th, 2020 at 6:55:54 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Maybe time for a suspension for me. Your posts have become more and more insensitive and repulsive.

Your disdain for the rest of the board members (and humanity in general) is disgusting.

I am asking you kindly to keep your sociopathic posts in your mind on not on this forum.



Sorry if I upset you, I just don't place as much value on human life as others do. If I have said something suspension worthy I am sure I will be suspended.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
AxelWolf
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March 17th, 2020 at 6:57:20 PM permalink
Quote: rxwine

DRich said somewhere, something like existence is meaningless or pointless. But I believe his response is backward. The ultimate challenge is to look into bleakness, blackness of meaninglessness and still want to go on.

I texted my niece who's in her early 20 and Pregnant and lives in Las Vegas to see how she was doing and see if she has prepared and needed anything. She isn't working and her guy only makes $15 to $18 an hour.

I told her she should take the serious and think about storing food and other essential things and to let me know if she needed anything.

This is was her exact quote, " I've been watching the news and I'm well aware of what's going on, I don't think this will last long, everything is opening back up in a few weeks"

I asked her a few questions. How is it you think it'll magically just disappear in a couple weeks and they will the open everything up? Was my first question along with some others. It's been over an hour and she hasn't responded back.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
petroglyph
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March 17th, 2020 at 7:34:08 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

Sorry if I upset you, I just don't place as much value on human life as others do. If I have said something suspension worthy I am sure I will be suspended.

I wasn't offended.

It's nice to see that many in society think they ought to spend another million trying to save my life if I contract "the virus". I hope I have the guts to let it run it's course and not take up a ventillator/ ICU?

I've been on borrowed time for quite a while already. My bad if the papers aren't filled out correctly.

Does everyone have their advance care directives filled out?

fwiw, 80% lung function isn't that bad, you can still do plenty of things, not Olympic athlete fitness quality but you can swim, dance, make love etc. I don't think they will put a person on oxygen until they are below 50%, iianm?
billryan
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March 17th, 2020 at 7:44:01 PM permalink
IF everything goes well, we are probably looking at cases peaking in 45 days.
Numbers are low now, but went up fivefold this week in the USofA. The number of American dead doubled in three days, give or take a few hours.
NYC is now estimating they will need 80,000 intensive care beds.
Cochise County, where I live, is home to many retirees and snowbirds. The hospitals were stretched thin before this. Even though the winter population almost doubles, not counting tourists, the hospitals use the year round population as their base number.
I pray I'm wrong, but this is looking bad.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
SOOPOO
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OnceDear
March 17th, 2020 at 7:46:20 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

Sorry if I upset you, I just don't place as much value on human life as others do. If I have said something suspension worthy I am sure I will be suspended.



I said suspension for me. One could argue my post was a personal insult aimed at you.
My post speaks for itself.
rxwine
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March 17th, 2020 at 7:56:53 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: rxwine

DRich said somewhere, something like existence is meaningless or pointless. But I believe his response is backward. The ultimate challenge is to look into bleakness, blackness of meaninglessness and still want to go on.

I texted my niece who's in her early 20 and Pregnant and lives in Las Vegas to see how she was doing and see if she has prepared and needed anything. She isn't working and her guy only makes $15 to $18 an hour.

I told her she should take the serious and think about storing food and other essential things and to let me know if she needed anything.

This is was her exact quote, " I've been watching the news and I'm well aware of what's going on, I don't think this will last long, everything is opening back up in a few weeks"

I asked her a few questions. How is it you think it'll magically just disappear in a couple weeks and they will the open everything up? Was my first question along with some others. It's been over an hour and she hasn't responded back.



Most of us are going to have some degree of stress reaction as this extends over days and weeks.
WEBMd
Quote:

Depression or anxiety
Anger, irritability, or restlessness
Feeling overwhelmed, unmotivated, or unfocused
Trouble sleeping or sleeping too much
Racing thoughts or constant worry
Problems with your memory or concentration
Making bad decisions

Sanitized for Your Protection
EvenBob
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rawtuff
March 17th, 2020 at 9:43:06 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

Sorry if I upset you, I just don't place as much value on human life as others do.



You place little value on your own life
and you project that onto everybody
else.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
onenickelmiracle
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OnceDear
March 17th, 2020 at 9:46:19 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

I said suspension for me. One could argue my post was a personal insult aimed at you.
My post speaks for itself.

I'd let both pass. I see nothing imo.
I am a robot.
michael99000
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March 17th, 2020 at 9:49:10 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

Sorry if I upset you, I just don't place as much value on human life as others do. .



That certainly explains your diet

Serious question. Do you eat the way you do because you don’t care how long you live?
billryan
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March 17th, 2020 at 10:20:52 PM permalink
Quote: michael99000

That certainly explains your diet

Serious question. Do you eat the way you do because you don’t care how long you live?



DRich in real life is as different from the character he plays here as Vince McMahon is different from Mr.McMahon on Raw.
I suspect he is more than a little jealous of all the adoration mdawg is getting and upset corona is getting more attention than him. While occasionally funny, this bit has shate the bed.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
michael99000
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March 17th, 2020 at 10:28:47 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

DRich in real life is as different from the character he plays here as Vince McMahon is different from Mr.McMahon on Raw.
I suspect he is more than a little jealous of all the adoration mdawg is getting and upset corona is getting more attention than him. While occasionally funny, this bit has shate the bed.



How many can claim that every gambling session is profitable , and every stock trade is a winner? Not many. We should just be appreciative that one of those select few is here at the WOV forum. They say the great ones make it look easy.
EvenBob
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March 17th, 2020 at 11:10:21 PM permalink
Quote: michael99000

How many can claim that every gambling session is profitable , and every stock trade is a winner? Not many.



Anybody and everybody can claim
that, what are you talking about.
Claims are a dime a dozen and
not even worth that..
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
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