Poll

1 vote (5.55%)
2 votes (11.11%)
6 votes (33.33%)
3 votes (16.66%)
6 votes (33.33%)
3 votes (16.66%)
No votes (0%)
1 vote (5.55%)
2 votes (11.11%)
5 votes (27.77%)

18 members have voted

Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
  • Threads: 1487
  • Posts: 26320
Thanks for this post from:
Mission146
January 22nd, 2024 at 4:36:19 PM permalink
It's not too early to start talking about the Super Bowl. As I write this, the Conference Championships are six days away. My method for handicapping is very simple -- the estimated points scored by each team is the average of the average points scored per game and the average points allowed by the other team over the regular season.

Here is the raw data from the regular season. Note that now 17 games are played per team.

Team Points Scored Points Allowed
Baltimore 28.41 16.47
Kansas City 21.82 17.29
San Francisco 28.88 17.53
Detroit 27.12 23.24


In the AFC championship, I show Baltimore a 3.7 point favorite and total points of 42. The actual line is Baltimore -3.5 and total of 44.

In the NFC championship, I show SF also a 3.7 point favorite and total points of 48.4. The actual line is SF -7 and total of 51.

This makes Detroit + 7 looks like a good bet! Both unders are moderately good.

Here are some hypothetical Super Bowl matchups:

Bal vs SF: EV, total of 45.5
Bal vs Det: Bal -4, total of 47.5
KC vs SF: SF -3.5, total of 43
KC vs Det: EV, total of 44.5

The question for the poll is who do you WANT to win the Super Bowl? Multiple votes allowed.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
unJon
unJon 
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
  • Threads: 14
  • Posts: 4529
Thanks for this post from:
Mission146
January 23rd, 2024 at 6:57:45 AM permalink
I like. But unlike the Super Bowl, shouldn’t you add a home field advantage factor to your calculations?
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
  • Threads: 1487
  • Posts: 26320
Thanks for this post from:
Mission146
January 23rd, 2024 at 5:08:22 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

I like. But unlike the Super Bowl, shouldn’t you add a home field advantage factor to your calculations?
link to original post



Good point! That is an embarrassing mistake.

One takeaway I had from Billy Walter's book Gambler is that the home field advantage is not always worth 2.5 to 3 points, but it varies depending on the two teams.

However, since I'm keeping this simple, I will make it worth 3. I do this by giving 1.5 points to the home team and taking 1.5 away from the visiting team.

This makes both Baltimore and SF 6.7-point favorites.

That makes the line on the SF/Det game pretty close. However, it makes Bal -3.5 look like a decent bet. However, it is almost against my religion to bet on a favorite. Is there a significant injury with the Ravens?
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
  • Threads: 121
  • Posts: 10808
Thanks for this post from:
Mission146
January 23rd, 2024 at 5:25:47 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Quote: unJon

I like. But unlike the Super Bowl, shouldn’t you add a home field advantage factor to your calculations?
link to original post



Good point! That is an embarrassing mistake.

One takeaway I had from Billy Walter's book Gambler is that the home field advantage is not always worth 2.5 to 3 points, but it varies depending on the two teams.

However, since I'm keeping this simple, I will make it worth 3. I do this by giving 1.5 points to the home team and taking 1.5 away from the visiting team.

This makes both Baltimore and SF 6.7-point favorites.

That makes the line on the SF/Det game pretty close. However, it makes Bal -3.5 look like a decent bet. However, it is almost against my religion to bet on a favorite. Is there a significant injury with the Ravens?
link to original post



Their tight end, Mark Andrews, is considered the second best TE in football. He has been out a while but is a ‘probable’ to play this weekend.
His sub, Isaiah Likely, has played great in his stead. I have a bunch of bets on Likely having a big game. I got around 16-1 on him scoring first TD.
KC is the team that suffered more injuries last weekend.
I think the line is low solely because of ‘the Mahomes factor’. Compare Mahomes postseason record to Jackson’s….

Those factors may not go into the Wiz databank, but they certainly go into most bettors’.
ams288
ams288
Joined: Sep 26, 2012
  • Threads: 22
  • Posts: 6443
Thanks for this post from:
Mission146
January 23rd, 2024 at 5:41:17 PM permalink
I don’t really know anything about football, but I want the Lions to win.

(lol I lived in MI for years I know they won’t)
Ding Dong the Witch is Dead
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
  • Threads: 1487
  • Posts: 26320
January 28th, 2024 at 6:53:53 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Here are some hypothetical Super Bowl matchups:

KC vs SF: SF -3.5, total of 43

link to original post



Usually Pinnacle puts up a Super Bowl line within seconds of the ending of the playoffs. I'm waiting to see it.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
Joined: Jun 22, 2011
  • Threads: 117
  • Posts: 6164
January 28th, 2024 at 7:21:35 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Quote: Wizard

Here are some hypothetical Super Bowl matchups:

KC vs SF: SF -3.5, total of 43

link to original post



Usually Pinnacle puts up a Super Bowl line within seconds of the ending of the playoffs. I'm waiting to see it.
link to original post


Washington Post is reporting early lines are in the range of 49ers -2 to -2.5
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
  • Threads: 1487
  • Posts: 26320
Thanks for this post from:
IndyJeffrey
January 28th, 2024 at 7:31:56 PM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

Washington Post is reporting early lines are in the range of 49ers -2 to -2.5
link to original post



Early line is SF a 1.5 to 2.5-point favorite with total of 47.5.

Pinnacle:

SF -1.5 (-102)
KC +1.5 (-108)

Over 47.5 (-102)
Under 47.5 (-110)

So, I'm liking SF and really liking the under.
Last edited by: Wizard on Jan 28, 2024
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
unJon
unJon 
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
  • Threads: 14
  • Posts: 4529
January 28th, 2024 at 7:50:13 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Quote: ThatDonGuy

Washington Post is reporting early lines are in the range of 49ers -2 to -2.5
link to original post



Early line is SF a 1.5 to 2.5-point favorite with total of 47.5.

Pinnacle:

SF -1.5 (-102)
KC +1.5 (-108)

Over 47.5 (-102)
Under 47.5 (-110)

So, I'm liking KC and really liking the under. The under and underdog, as usual.
link to original post



I think your math says SF -3.5 so you should in theory like the favorite.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
  • Threads: 1487
  • Posts: 26320
January 28th, 2024 at 9:07:02 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

I think your math says SF -3.5 so you should in theory like the favorite.
link to original post



You're right. As usual, I blow it on the easy math.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
  • Threads: 240
  • Posts: 13798
January 29th, 2024 at 8:35:48 AM permalink
Local book has it SF -1. I do not remember another SB being that close. Moneylines are six cents difference either way. Question for all is would you pay six cents vig to get that point? How many NFL games are decided by one point?
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
unJon
unJon 
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
  • Threads: 14
  • Posts: 4529
January 29th, 2024 at 9:42:38 AM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

Local book has it SF -1. I do not remember another SB being that close. Moneylines are six cents difference either way. Question for all is would you pay six cents vig to get that point? How many NFL games are decided by one point?
link to original post



About 4% of nfl games are decided by one point (one way or another). How many -1 games are decided by one point? Presumably somewhat a higher % if you believe lines are efficient and outcomes form a normal distribution with the mean equal to the line and the variance equal to what is implied by teaser and pleaser odds.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
  • Threads: 232
  • Posts: 6473
January 29th, 2024 at 10:59:39 AM permalink
.
even though it's by a small no. I'm very surprised that the Chiefs are dogs
Mahomes is so great and he's 14-3 lifetime in the playoffs
this is his 4th time in the SB and he's already won 2 out of 3

and the Chiefs have other very strong players - Kelce, Pacheco, and Rice

yes, I know the 9ers have very strong players too

still - it seems off to me

the 9ers have not come even close to covering in their 2 previous playoff games

they were 10.5 faves over the Pack and won by only 3__________7.5 faves over the Lions and won by only 3

.
Please don't feed the trolls
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
  • Threads: 121
  • Posts: 10808
January 29th, 2024 at 3:46:46 PM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

.
even though it's by a small no. I'm very surprised that the Chiefs are dogs
Mahomes is so great and he's 14-3 lifetime in the playoffs
this is his 4th time in the SB and he's already won 2 out of 3

and the Chiefs have other very strong players - Kelce, Pacheco, and Rice

yes, I know the 9ers have very strong players too

still - it seems off to me

the 9ers have not come even close to covering in their 2 previous playoff games

they were 10.5 faves over the Pack and won by only 3__________7.5 faves over the Lions and won by only 3

.
link to original post



I guess you didn’t watch the game? It took a 4th down thread the needle pass with less than 2 minutes to go for the Lions to cover!

Apparently Mahomes is 9-3 STRAIGHT UP when an underdog.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
  • Threads: 232
  • Posts: 6473
January 30th, 2024 at 6:42:13 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: lilredrooster

.
even though it's by a small no. I'm very surprised that the Chiefs are dogs
Mahomes is so great and he's 14-3 lifetime in the playoffs
this is his 4th time in the SB and he's already won 2 out of 3

and the Chiefs have other very strong players - Kelce, Pacheco, and Rice

yes, I know the 9ers have very strong players too

still - it seems off to me

the 9ers have not come even close to covering in their 2 previous playoff games

they were 10.5 faves over the Pack and won by only 3__________7.5 faves over the Lions and won by only 3

.
link to original post



I guess you didn’t watch the game? It took a 4th down thread the needle pass with less than 2 minutes to go for the Lions to cover!

Apparently Mahomes is 9-3 STRAIGHT UP when an underdog.
link to original post


sounds like you might like the Chiefs like I do
I accept Purdy as a potentially great QB but I don't believe he's the equal of Mahomes - the QB play is so crucial
many other factors and luck too of course -

.
Please don't feed the trolls
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
  • Threads: 121
  • Posts: 10808
January 30th, 2024 at 7:17:44 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: lilredrooster

.
even though it's by a small no. I'm very surprised that the Chiefs are dogs
Mahomes is so great and he's 14-3 lifetime in the playoffs
this is his 4th time in the SB and he's already won 2 out of 3

and the Chiefs have other very strong players - Kelce, Pacheco, and Rice

yes, I know the 9ers have very strong players too

still - it seems off to me

the 9ers have not come even close to covering in their 2 previous playoff games

they were 10.5 faves over the Pack and won by only 3__________7.5 faves over the Lions and won by only 3

.
link to original post



I guess you didn’t watch the game? It took a 4th down thread the needle pass with less than 2 minutes to go for the Lions to cover!

Apparently Mahomes is 9-3 STRAIGHT UP when an underdog.
link to original post


sounds like you might like the Chiefs like I do
I accept Purdy as a potentially great QB but I don't believe he's the equal of Mahomes - the QB play is so crucial
many other factors and luck too of course -

.
link to original post



I’m not sure who I think will win! Mahomes is the best player in football. If you traded Mahomes for Purdy the 49ers are 7 point favorites. In of course a less flashy way, McCaffrey is the second best player in football. Trade McCaffrey for Pacheco and Chiefs are 4 point favorites over 49ers. And usually running backs are just interchangeable pieces.
I’m not even sure who I want to win!
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
  • Threads: 1487
  • Posts: 26320
Thanks for this post from:
mipletbeachbumbabs
January 30th, 2024 at 11:13:06 AM permalink
Any trusted friends looking to bet KC +1.5 or over 47.5? I'm looking to bet the other way, even money.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
  • Threads: 232
  • Posts: 6473
January 30th, 2024 at 12:01:06 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Any trusted friends looking to bet KC +1.5 or over 47.5? I'm looking to bet the other way, even money.
link to original post


I definitely would have bet with you except I decided to stop all betting several months ago
I wanted to explain why since I just indicated I liked the Chiefs in this thread
I only enjoy analyzing a few games now
you are definitely 100% trustworthy

in case anybody missed this point:
betting with the Wizard might get you a significantly better deal than betting with a book -
there should be no vig - so if you win, you're win should be 10% more than a win betting with a book

and the Wizard should be getting a better deal too if he wins

.
Please don't feed the trolls
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
  • Threads: 1487
  • Posts: 26320
January 30th, 2024 at 2:35:22 PM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

in case anybody missed this point:
betting with the Wizard might get you a significantly better deal than betting with a book -
there should be no vig - so if you win, you're win should be 10% more than a win betting with a book.
link to original post



Thank you! In my sports betting circle we often say "Why go to strangers?" Why pay the -110 if you don't have to.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
Joined: Jun 22, 2011
  • Threads: 117
  • Posts: 6164
January 30th, 2024 at 4:26:38 PM permalink
Not exactly a "prop bet," and I didn't see a thread for those yet, but the Circa books are offering odds on any combination of last digit pairs for the end of each quarter (e.g. 49ers 7, Chiefs 0 in the first quarter, or 49ers 1, Chiefs 1 as the final score). Scroll down to the bottom of the page to see the opening lines (although they may be updated) for each result.
AitchTheLetter
AitchTheLetter
Joined: May 28, 2022
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 174
January 30th, 2024 at 5:16:48 PM permalink
I grew up and had my primary residence in the KC metro area for my whole life. I have been a ride or die fan since I was old enough to understand what the sport was. I remember the years of them sucking. I am so ready for the Chiefs villain era. I also think the Chiefs will win because their defense just held one of the most electric offenses in the NFL to 10 points and the 9ers are anything other than electric. It took a massive choke for the 9ers to win that game.
Aut inveniam viam aut faciam
billryan
billryan
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
  • Threads: 240
  • Posts: 16282
February 1st, 2024 at 6:18:45 AM permalink
The fix is in, and almost half the country is in on it. The NFL and their Masters have teamed up to fix the game, have Travis Kelce win the MVP, and then announce his engagement to Taylor Swift on worldwide television. This will somehow cause tens of millions of people to run out and vote for her Uncle Joe.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
  • Threads: 1487
  • Posts: 26320
February 1st, 2024 at 6:58:48 AM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

Not exactly a "prop bet," and I didn't see a thread for those yet, but the Circa books are offering odds on any combination of last digit pairs for the end of each quarter (e.g. 49ers 7, Chiefs 0 in the first quarter, or 49ers 1, Chiefs 1 as the final score). Scroll down to the bottom of the page to see the opening lines (although they may be updated) for each result.
link to original post



I analyzed these before: Super Bowl Square
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
  • Threads: 121
  • Posts: 10808
February 1st, 2024 at 7:14:42 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Quote: ThatDonGuy

Not exactly a "prop bet," and I didn't see a thread for those yet, but the Circa books are offering odds on any combination of last digit pairs for the end of each quarter (e.g. 49ers 7, Chiefs 0 in the first quarter, or 49ers 1, Chiefs 1 as the final score). Scroll down to the bottom of the page to see the opening lines (although they may be updated) for each result.
link to original post



I analyzed these before: Super Bowl Square
link to original post



How much of your data includes ‘old’ games where an extra point was a total gimme and not the 15 yard longer kick it is now? Lots of games have teams going for two if there is a defensive penalty on the try. And general score inflation would also make ‘unusual’ scores more prevalent. My point being there is likely more value in the 5’s, 8’s, 2’s and 9’s than the more common numbers.
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
  • Threads: 1487
  • Posts: 26320
February 1st, 2024 at 7:32:12 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

How much of your data includes ‘old’ games where an extra point was a total gimme and not the 15 yard longer kick it is now? Lots of games have teams going for two if there is a defensive penalty on the try. And general score inflation would also make ‘unusual’ scores more prevalent. My point being there is likely more value in the 5’s, 8’s, 2’s and 9’s than the more common numbers.
link to original post



I think all of them. For that analysis, I used games from 2000 to 2014.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
billryan
billryan
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
  • Threads: 240
  • Posts: 16282
February 1st, 2024 at 8:10:05 AM permalink
The NFL PAT is at just under 94%, while the two-point attempts succeed at a 48% rate. For every hundred touchdowns, a team gets 94 points after using the conventional method but 96 if they exclusively went for two points. It's not much but football is a game of inches.I think the question is do you want to expose your QB and offensive stars to those extra 100 plays. One or two injuries along the way would negate the extra couple of points. I like the three-point conversion the spring leagues are using. I'd go a step further and say a team making a successful three-point attempt gets the kickoff, not the other team.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
TigerWu
TigerWu
Joined: May 23, 2016
  • Threads: 25
  • Posts: 5474
February 1st, 2024 at 10:30:18 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

The fix is in, and almost half the country is in on it. The NFL and their Masters have teamed up to fix the game, have Travis Kelce win the MVP, and then announce his engagement to Taylor Swift on worldwide television. This will somehow cause tens of millions of people to run out and vote for her Uncle Joe.
link to original post



I know this is the conspiracy theory going around, but it sounds like the plot to a short story some 6th grade Swiftie would write for a class assignment.
ams288
ams288
Joined: Sep 26, 2012
  • Threads: 22
  • Posts: 6443
February 1st, 2024 at 10:42:00 AM permalink
I don’t really care who wins since the Lions lost.

But I will probably root for the Chiefs because so many people seem to hate them for the dumbest reasons.
Ding Dong the Witch is Dead
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
  • Threads: 240
  • Posts: 13798
February 1st, 2024 at 10:46:13 AM permalink
At my local book the line has moved a point to SF who are now -2. I did not notice any extra juice either way.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
  • Threads: 207
  • Posts: 10985
Thanks for this post from:
Johnzimbo
February 2nd, 2024 at 3:05:52 AM permalink
William Hill prop bets:

https://www.williamhill.us/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/SB-58-w.squares-WH.pdf
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ ————————————————————————————————————— Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
  • Threads: 1487
  • Posts: 26320
February 2nd, 2024 at 6:25:13 AM permalink
Quote: DJTeddyBear

William Hill prop bets:

https://www.williamhill.us/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/SB-58-w.squares-WH.pdf
link to original post



Yes! The first full prop sheet I've seen for this Super Bowl.

Do you want to split the difference of the bridge jumpers again?
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
  • Threads: 232
  • Posts: 6473
February 2nd, 2024 at 7:29:01 AM permalink
.
some more props on Travis Kelce per covers.com (linked) - they indicate that FanDuel is offering this

I didn't see these in the prop sheet listed above but maybe I missed it

one looks like a very good deal - many others more difficult to analyze and I didn't wanna take the time to do it - maybe someone else will

Kelce under 6.5 receptions +122___________his average this season is 6.44

I've also linked Kelce's stats which indicate he's been over 6.5 receptions just 7 times in the last 18 games

in the last 10 games he's been over 6.5 receptions just 3 times


https://www.covers.com/sport/football/nfl/players/29138/travis-kelce

https://www.google.com/search?q=travis+kelce+stats&oq=tra&aqs=chrome.0.69i59l2j0i131i433i512j69i57j69i60j69i65l3.1449j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

.
Please don't feed the trolls
gordonm888
Administrator
gordonm888
Joined: Feb 18, 2015
  • Threads: 60
  • Posts: 4957
February 2nd, 2024 at 11:43:19 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

.
some more props on Travis Kelce per covers.com (linked) - they indicate that FanDuel is offering this

I didn't see these in the prop sheet listed above but maybe I missed it

one looks like a very good deal - many others more difficult to analyze and I didn't wanna take the time to do it - maybe someone else will

Kelce under 6.5 receptions +122___________his average this season is 6.44

I've also linked Kelce's stats which indicate he's been over 6.5 receptions just 7 times in the last 18 games

in the last 10 games he's been over 6.5 receptions just 3 times


https://www.covers.com/sport/football/nfl/players/29138/travis-kelce

https://www.google.com/search?q=travis+kelce+stats&oq=tra&aqs=chrome.0.69i59l2j0i131i433i512j69i57j69i60j69i65l3.1449j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

.
link to original post



How do 49ers do at defending receptions from tight ends? Some teams struggle with tight end coverage.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
billryan
billryan
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
  • Threads: 240
  • Posts: 16282
February 2nd, 2024 at 11:51:59 AM permalink
If KC is up, they won't throw to him as much as if they are losing. If he gets a lot of targets, his team is likely to be losing. I don't see him winning MVP unless he catches two early TDs.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
  • Threads: 207
  • Posts: 10985
February 2nd, 2024 at 11:55:35 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Quote: DJTeddyBear

William Hill prop bets:

https://www.williamhill.us/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/SB-58-w.squares-WH.pdf
link to original post


Yes! The first full prop sheet I've seen for this Super Bowl.

Do you want to split the difference of the bridge jumpers again?
link to original post

Well, DUH! Why do you think I went to the effort of finding those sheets? 🤪

I’m working on my list, but…


I thought it was odd that these sheets do not include the bet number. I.E. The number you tell the Ticket Writer what you're betting on. 🤔

Scroll to the bottom of the last page and you'll see why.

Apparently you can browse and make your picks on your phone. When you're ready, you give a code to the Ticket Writer or kiosk to get all your bets, all in one shot. 👍👍

Great idea, but kinda weird that they buried this info on the last page. Particularly when you consider that they put it in the bottom margin, and that margin is blank on every other page. 😵‍💫

I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ ————————————————————————————————————— Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
  • Threads: 232
  • Posts: 6473
February 2nd, 2024 at 11:56:12 AM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

Quote: lilredrooster

.
some more props on Travis Kelce per covers.com (linked) - they indicate that FanDuel is offering this

I didn't see these in the prop sheet listed above but maybe I missed it

one looks like a very good deal - many others more difficult to analyze and I didn't wanna take the time to do it - maybe someone else will

Kelce under 6.5 receptions +122___________his average this season is 6.44

I've also linked Kelce's stats which indicate he's been over 6.5 receptions just 7 times in the last 18 games

in the last 10 games he's been over 6.5 receptions just 3 times


https://www.covers.com/sport/football/nfl/players/29138/travis-kelce

https://www.google.com/search?q=travis+kelce+stats&oq=tra&aqs=chrome.0.69i59l2j0i131i433i512j69i57j69i60j69i65l3.1449j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

.
link to original post



How do 49ers do at defending receptions from tight ends? Some teams struggle with tight end coverage.
link to original post


I tried to find that out but couldn't find good info
but Fox Sports - linked - has ranked the 9ers 8th in total defense - pretty high
and 14th in pass defense - a little higher than middle of the pack


https://www.foxsports.com/articles/nfl/2023-nfl-defense-rankings-team-pass-and-rush-stats
.
Please don't feed the trolls
unJon
unJon 
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
  • Threads: 14
  • Posts: 4529
February 2nd, 2024 at 12:20:39 PM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: gordonm888

Quote: lilredrooster

.
some more props on Travis Kelce per covers.com (linked) - they indicate that FanDuel is offering this

I didn't see these in the prop sheet listed above but maybe I missed it

one looks like a very good deal - many others more difficult to analyze and I didn't wanna take the time to do it - maybe someone else will

Kelce under 6.5 receptions +122___________his average this season is 6.44

I've also linked Kelce's stats which indicate he's been over 6.5 receptions just 7 times in the last 18 games

in the last 10 games he's been over 6.5 receptions just 3 times


https://www.covers.com/sport/football/nfl/players/29138/travis-kelce

https://www.google.com/search?q=travis+kelce+stats&oq=tra&aqs=chrome.0.69i59l2j0i131i433i512j69i57j69i60j69i65l3.1449j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

.
link to original post



How do 49ers do at defending receptions from tight ends? Some teams struggle with tight end coverage.
link to original post


I tried to find that out but couldn't find good info
but Fox Sports - linked - has ranked the 9ers 8th in total defense - pretty high
and 14th in pass defense - a little higher than middle of the pack


https://www.foxsports.com/articles/nfl/2023-nfl-defense-rankings-team-pass-and-rush-stats
.
link to original post



If you are inclined to bet “no” or “under” on any Kelce props my advice (FWIW) is to wait. The public is going to be heavy on the “yes” and “over” on all of them, IMO.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
  • Threads: 232
  • Posts: 6473
February 2nd, 2024 at 12:39:00 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: gordonm888

Quote: lilredrooster

.
some more props on Travis Kelce per covers.com (linked) - they indicate that FanDuel is offering this

I didn't see these in the prop sheet listed above but maybe I missed it

one looks like a very good deal - many others more difficult to analyze and I didn't wanna take the time to do it - maybe someone else will

Kelce under 6.5 receptions +122___________his average this season is 6.44

I've also linked Kelce's stats which indicate he's been over 6.5 receptions just 7 times in the last 18 games

in the last 10 games he's been over 6.5 receptions just 3 times


https://www.covers.com/sport/football/nfl/players/29138/travis-kelce

https://www.google.com/search?q=travis+kelce+stats&oq=tra&aqs=chrome.0.69i59l2j0i131i433i512j69i57j69i60j69i65l3.1449j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

.
link to original post



How do 49ers do at defending receptions from tight ends? Some teams struggle with tight end coverage.
link to original post


I tried to find that out but couldn't find good info
but Fox Sports - linked - has ranked the 9ers 8th in total defense - pretty high
and 14th in pass defense - a little higher than middle of the pack


https://www.foxsports.com/articles/nfl/2023-nfl-defense-rankings-team-pass-and-rush-stats
.
link to original post



If you are inclined to bet “no” or “under” on any Kelce props my advice (FWIW) is to wait. The public is going to be heavy on the “yes” and “over” on all of them, IMO.
link to original post


agree 100%
they love Kelce because of his thing with Taylor and that makes it likely the ploppies will bet on him to do well
but I didn't think about the advantage of waiting - you did - great point

.
Please don't feed the trolls
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
  • Threads: 121
  • Posts: 10808
February 2nd, 2024 at 12:43:10 PM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: unJon

Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: gordonm888

Quote: lilredrooster

.
some more props on Travis Kelce per covers.com (linked) - they indicate that FanDuel is offering this

I didn't see these in the prop sheet listed above but maybe I missed it

one looks like a very good deal - many others more difficult to analyze and I didn't wanna take the time to do it - maybe someone else will

Kelce under 6.5 receptions +122___________his average this season is 6.44

I've also linked Kelce's stats which indicate he's been over 6.5 receptions just 7 times in the last 18 games

in the last 10 games he's been over 6.5 receptions just 3 times


https://www.covers.com/sport/football/nfl/players/29138/travis-kelce

https://www.google.com/search?q=travis+kelce+stats&oq=tra&aqs=chrome.0.69i59l2j0i131i433i512j69i57j69i60j69i65l3.1449j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

.
link to original post



How do 49ers do at defending receptions from tight ends? Some teams struggle with tight end coverage.
link to original post


I tried to find that out but couldn't find good info
but Fox Sports - linked - has ranked the 9ers 8th in total defense - pretty high
and 14th in pass defense - a little higher than middle of the pack


https://www.foxsports.com/articles/nfl/2023-nfl-defense-rankings-team-pass-and-rush-stats
.
link to original post



If you are inclined to bet “no” or “under” on any Kelce props my advice (FWIW) is to wait. The public is going to be heavy on the “yes” and “over” on all of them, IMO.
link to original post


agree 100%
they love Kelce because of his thing with Taylor and that makes it likely the ploppies will bet on him to do well
but I didn't think about the advantage of waiting - you did - great point

.
link to original post



I understand what you are saying. But if you and UnJon are aware of this, what makes you think the bookies aren’t?!? And wouldn’t have ALREADY adjusted their lines? Like if the football analysis has Kelce getting on average 8 catches, then make the over/under 9.
unJon
unJon 
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
  • Threads: 14
  • Posts: 4529
February 2nd, 2024 at 12:55:20 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: unJon

Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: gordonm888

Quote: lilredrooster

.
some more props on Travis Kelce per covers.com (linked) - they indicate that FanDuel is offering this

I didn't see these in the prop sheet listed above but maybe I missed it

one looks like a very good deal - many others more difficult to analyze and I didn't wanna take the time to do it - maybe someone else will

Kelce under 6.5 receptions +122___________his average this season is 6.44

I've also linked Kelce's stats which indicate he's been over 6.5 receptions just 7 times in the last 18 games

in the last 10 games he's been over 6.5 receptions just 3 times


https://www.covers.com/sport/football/nfl/players/29138/travis-kelce

https://www.google.com/search?q=travis+kelce+stats&oq=tra&aqs=chrome.0.69i59l2j0i131i433i512j69i57j69i60j69i65l3.1449j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

.
link to original post



How do 49ers do at defending receptions from tight ends? Some teams struggle with tight end coverage.
link to original post


I tried to find that out but couldn't find good info
but Fox Sports - linked - has ranked the 9ers 8th in total defense - pretty high
and 14th in pass defense - a little higher than middle of the pack


https://www.foxsports.com/articles/nfl/2023-nfl-defense-rankings-team-pass-and-rush-stats
.
link to original post



If you are inclined to bet “no” or “under” on any Kelce props my advice (FWIW) is to wait. The public is going to be heavy on the “yes” and “over” on all of them, IMO.
link to original post


agree 100%
they love Kelce because of his thing with Taylor and that makes it likely the ploppies will bet on him to do well
but I didn't think about the advantage of waiting - you did - great point

.
link to original post



I understand what you are saying. But if you and UnJon are aware of this, what makes you think the bookies aren’t?!? And wouldn’t have ALREADY adjusted their lines? Like if the football analysis has Kelce getting on average 8 catches, then make the over/under 9.
link to original post



Watching the market of lines move up so far. Let’s see where they are next week. Sometimes I’m right. Sometimes I’m wrong.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
  • Threads: 232
  • Posts: 6473
February 2nd, 2024 at 1:02:34 PM permalink
.
another prop shown on Kelce from covers.com linking to Points Bet is also very good on the No

I missed it in my OP

he averages .44 TDs per game - it's even money that he'll score a TD which means it should be -120 that he won't

he's scored a TD in 7 of his last 18 games - and 3 TDs in his last 10

if you base calculation of an edge by his scoring on 7 TDs in 18 games that's an edge of almost 12%

if you base the calculation of an edge on him scoring 3 TDs in his last 10 games it's much higher - more than 28%

of course all of this is just speculation - anything can happen - but it looks like the No is a good bet

Edit - I just noticed - per covers.com PointsBet raised the Yes from even money to +105


https://www.covers.com/sport/football/nfl/players/29138/travis-kelce

https://www.google.com/search?q=travis+kelce+stats&oq=tra&aqs=chrome.0.69i59l2j0i131i433i512j69i57j69i60j69i65l3.1449j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

.
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Feb 2, 2024
Please don't feed the trolls
tuttigym
tuttigym
Joined: Feb 12, 2010
  • Threads: 10
  • Posts: 1808
Thanks for this post from:
SOOPOOodiousgambitHunterhill
February 3rd, 2024 at 9:31:11 AM permalink
From my neighborhood blog.



A good friend of mine has two tickets for the 2024 Super Bowl, 50 yard line box seats. He paid $52,500 each but he didn't realize last year when he bought them, it was going to be on the same day as his wedding. If you are interested, he is looking for someone to take his place...It's at St. Michaels Church, at 3pm. The bride's name is Roxanne, she's 5'4", about 115 lbs., good cook too. She'll be the one in the white dress.

tuttigym
TomG
TomG
Joined: Sep 26, 2010
  • Threads: 16
  • Posts: 2423
February 3rd, 2024 at 7:04:41 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO


I understand what you are saying. But if you and UnJon are aware of this, what makes you think the bookies aren’t?!? And wouldn’t have ALREADY adjusted their lines? Like if the football analysis has Kelce getting on average 8 catches, then make the over/under 9.



Because that isn't how those corporations operate and it isn't even in their best interest to do so.

The trader making $50,000 per year has no incentive to do any extra work. And even if it they were able to only hire the sharpest and most loyal workers in the world, it is still more efficient to just use as much of the work they've done and data they've collected from the previous 21 weeks, rather than try to recreate anything for the 1,000 or so props they put up. Then they could just let price discovery and market forces take over. If we look at it from that perspective, we have 10 to 12 days to get as much money down as possible. If we look at it from the perspective that everything is already accounted for in any number, there's a lot less room for profit.

----

No postgame Swelce kiss has to be good. It's a yes if KC wins and no if they lose, so it's like getting SF moneyline at +165, right?
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
  • Threads: 121
  • Posts: 10808
February 3rd, 2024 at 7:45:38 PM permalink
Quote: TomG

Quote: SOOPOO


I understand what you are saying. But if you and UnJon are aware of this, what makes you think the bookies aren’t?!? And wouldn’t have ALREADY adjusted their lines? Like if the football analysis has Kelce getting on average 8 catches, then make the over/under 9.



Because that isn't how those corporations operate and it isn't even in their best interest to do so.

The trader making $50,000 per year has no incentive to do any extra work. And even if it they were able to only hire the sharpest and most loyal workers in the world, it is still more efficient to just use as much of the work they've done and data they've collected from the previous 21 weeks, rather than try to recreate anything for the 1,000 or so props they put up. Then they could just let price discovery and market forces take over. If we look at it from that perspective, we have 10 to 12 days to get as much money down as possible. If we look at it from the perspective that everything is already accounted for in any number, there's a lot less room for profit.

----

No postgame Swelce kiss has to be good. It's a yes if KC wins and no if they lose, so it's like getting SF moneyline at +165, right?
link to original post



Nope. SF wins and there is a kiss to console Kelce. KC wins and there is a kiss to congratulate him. If Swift’s publicist thinks it is good for business….
AitchTheLetter
AitchTheLetter
Joined: May 28, 2022
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 174
February 5th, 2024 at 12:08:46 PM permalink
Is the wager that there will be a SHOWN kiss or that there will be a kiss at all? Because the former seems more likely. The latter is probably next to impossible to prove if the Chiefs lose because they will likely leave the field relatively quickly where as if they win then they will celebrate ON the field.
Aut inveniam viam aut faciam
MrV
MrV
Joined: Feb 13, 2010
  • Threads: 361
  • Posts: 8107
February 6th, 2024 at 12:23:42 AM permalink
I wonder if bookies are taking bets as to whether Taylor Swift will attend the SB?
"What, me worry?"
rxwine
rxwine
Joined: Feb 28, 2010
  • Threads: 207
  • Posts: 12095
February 6th, 2024 at 4:08:24 AM permalink
This thread has a generic title. I want to ask if the vibe of las vegas is any different for the first Super Bowl, than any other big event. I lived there 12 years total. Much of time I couldn't tell you if anything really different was going on even if a big convention was in town. Of course, maybe if I had been down on the Strip every day I might have noticed, but regardless I didn't really notice.
There's no secret. Just know what you're talking about before you open your mouth.
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
  • Threads: 1487
  • Posts: 26320
Thanks for this post from:
Johnzimbo
February 6th, 2024 at 7:30:34 AM permalink
Here are the props from the South Point/Rampart and Boyd Gaming.
Last edited by: Wizard on Feb 6, 2024
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
  • Threads: 1487
  • Posts: 26320
February 6th, 2024 at 8:43:13 AM permalink
Quote: rxwine

This thread has a generic title. I want to ask if the vibe of las vegas is any different for the first Super Bowl, than any other big event. I lived there 12 years total. Much of time I couldn't tell you if anything really different was going on even if a big convention was in town. Of course, maybe if I had been down on the Strip every day I might have noticed, but regardless I didn't really notice.
link to original post



I personally haven't felt anything different from any other Super Bowl, but I live way out on the west side. Tomorrow I might go to the Super Bowl Experience at the Mandalay Bay.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Johnzimbo
Johnzimbo
Joined: Sep 29, 2010
  • Threads: 4
  • Posts: 1134
Thanks for this post from:
Wizard
February 6th, 2024 at 11:12:50 AM permalink
Boyd's prop sheet looks like a 5th grader was tasked to create

  • Jump to: