2024 Super Bowl
Poll
 | 1 vote (5.55%) | ||
| | 2 votes (11.11%) | ||
| | 6 votes (33.33%) | ||
| | 3 votes (16.66%) | ||
| | 6 votes (33.33%) | ||
| | 3 votes (16.66%) | ||
| No votes (0%) | |||
| | 1 vote (5.55%) | ||
| | 2 votes (11.11%) | ||
| | 5 votes (27.77%) |
18 members have voted
February 6th, 2024 at 11:34:17 AM
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Here is a list of some of my favorite props year after year.
Before getting to that, the usual disclaimer. The fair lines are based on data from 2000 to 2014. The NFL was a lower-scoring sport back then. Also some rule changes have affected things, like moving back the line for the extra point. I would be especially wary of betting on a low number of field goals. Over the years, field goal kickers have become much better, increasing the average number per game from the average of my data.
That said, is my list.
For many more fair lines, see my Prop Bet Calculator.
Before getting to that, the usual disclaimer. The fair lines are based on data from 2000 to 2014. The NFL was a lower-scoring sport back then. Also some rule changes have affected things, like moving back the line for the extra point. I would be especially wary of betting on a low number of field goals. Over the years, field goal kickers have become much better, increasing the average number per game from the average of my data.
That said, is my list.
| Prop | Fair | Rampart | Prob win | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| First score TD | -171 | -150 | 63.10% | 5.17% |
| Last score TD | -197 | -190 | 66.33% | 1.24% |
| No safety | -1523 | -1100 | 93.84% | 2.37% |
| No overtime | -1432 | -1000 | 93.47% | 2.82% |
| No 2-pt conversion | -618 | -240 | 86.07% | 21.94% |
| No three consecutive score | -170 | -165 | 62.96% | 1.12% |
| No 3-pt margin of victory | -700 | -543 | 87.50% | 3.61% |
| Team to score first wins | -170 | -162 | 62.96% | 1.83% |
| Team to score last wins | -205 | -220 | 67.21% | -2.24% |
| No scoresless quarter | -353 | -500 | 77.92% | -6.49% |
| Punts under 8.5 | -105 | -140 | 51.22% | -12.20% |
| Game never tied after 0-0 | -118 | -110 | 54.13% | 3.34% |
| Field goals under 3.5 | -143 | -160 | 58.85% | -4.37% |
| KC first score TD | -159 | -155 | 61.39% | 1.00% |
| SF first score TD | -178 | -165 | 64.03% | 2.83% |
| KC last score TD | -163 | -165 | 61.98% | -0.46% |
| SF last score TD | -170 | -165 | 62.96% | 1.12% |
| SF scoreless qtr | -240 | -270 | 70.59% | -3.27% |
| KC scoreless qtr | -270 | -300 | 72.97% | -2.70% |
For many more fair lines, see my Prop Bet Calculator.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
February 6th, 2024 at 3:02:39 PM
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Re: 3 pt margin of victory. You just looked at all games over that time span, not ones with a point spread close to 3?
February 6th, 2024 at 3:36:54 PM
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Quote: rxwineThis thread has a generic title. I want to ask if the vibe of las vegas is any different for the first Super Bowl, than any other big event. I lived there 12 years total. Much of time I couldn't tell you if anything really different was going on even if a big convention was in town. Of course, maybe if I had been down on the Strip every day I might have noticed, but regardless I didn't really notice.
link to original post
I have been thinking does it make some sort of sense to put it in Vegas regularly, similar to how the Pro Bowl was always in Hawaii?
Think about it. The NFL has made peace with Vegas. 25 years ago Las Vegas was not even allowed to buy an ad for a "Visit Vegas" spot during the game. Today sports betting is seamless in the coverage. The Hotel rooms are not just in the city but tens of thousands within a few miles. Air connectivity is there. The stadium is top of class and having it there yearly would encourage it to remain so.
Downside of course is other cities and stadiums cannot be featured. Other downside is Vegas is remote from the dense populated east half of the USA.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
February 6th, 2024 at 7:11:33 PM
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Quote: JohnzimboRe: 3 pt margin of victory. You just looked at all games over that time span, not ones with a point spread close to 3?
link to original post
I take into consideration the point spread and total with my fair lines. That why the calculator asks the user for them.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
February 7th, 2024 at 7:45:16 PM
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Draft kings (yea I know...) has a prop Will There Be a Successful Onside Kick? No is -5000. I'd imagine this is +EV even at this line
February 8th, 2024 at 6:54:58 AM
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Quote: yankeesfan2615Draft kings (yea I know...) has a prop Will There Be a Successful Onside Kick? No is -5000. I'd imagine this is +EV even at this line
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Gotta agree. A more interesting prop would be ‘is there an onside kick?’
As far as the props Wiz has listed, the two point conversion prop has changed exponentially since Wiz collected his data. Most teams go for two after a penalty on initial try that had a defensive penalty moving ball to one yard line. Most teams go for two in end of game scenarios to try and get to 6 instead of 7 point deficit. Most teams go for two way earlier to tie game instead of pulling within one point. And sometimes teams just go for two what would appear randomly. And they go for two sometimes after the kicker missed a previous extra point.
Funny, but out of all the bets Mike mentioned, I like the ‘worst’ one! I love under 8.5 punts.
February 8th, 2024 at 9:45:41 AM
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.
covers.com has McCaffrey rushing over 89.5 rushing yards at -110 - linking to Bet365
he has been over that total in 7 of his last 9 games
for the entire season including playoffs he has been over that total 12 of 18 times
the Chiefs are not strong against the run - the 9ers averaged 140.5 rushing yards per game during the regular season - 2nd best in the NFL
the over looks like a good bet
https://www.covers.com/sport/football/nfl/players/29958/christian-mccaffrey
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covers.com has McCaffrey rushing over 89.5 rushing yards at -110 - linking to Bet365
he has been over that total in 7 of his last 9 games
for the entire season including playoffs he has been over that total 12 of 18 times
the Chiefs are not strong against the run - the 9ers averaged 140.5 rushing yards per game during the regular season - 2nd best in the NFL
the over looks like a good bet
https://www.covers.com/sport/football/nfl/players/29958/christian-mccaffrey
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Please don't feed the trolls
February 8th, 2024 at 3:08:08 PM
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Quote: lilredrooster.
covers.com has McCaffrey rushing over 89.5 rushing yards at -110 - linking to Bet365
he has been over that total in 7 of his last 9 games
for the entire season including playoffs he has been over that total 12 of 18 times
the Chiefs are not strong against the run - the 9ers averaged 140.5 rushing yards per game during the regular season - 2nd best in the NFL
the over looks like a good bet
https://www.covers.com/sport/football/nfl/players/29958/christian-mccaffrey
.
link to original post
Then go for it! I think 89.5 is a fair number. Both teams may pass a little more than usual (in the misguided) attempt to ‘keep up’ with the other high powered offense. But on the plus side for you, it is the Super Bowl. I think starters will get more carries than average and backups less.
If you made me bet I’d go over with you.
February 9th, 2024 at 6:14:33 AM
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.
public betting on the Super Bowl as of Monday per the link
71% of ats bets on Chiefs and 73% of money
82% of bets on Chiefs on money line and 76% of money
Brock Purdy over 0.5 interceptions - -120 - 99% of the bets are on the over
in the 2nd link the reporter asked 4 NFL coaches to pick the winner and they all picked the Chiefs
https://www.pickswise.com/news/who-is-the-public-betting-on-super-bowl-58-super-bowl-public-betting-latest-trends/
https://theathletic.com/5259553/2024/02/09/nfl-super-bowl-picks-49ers-chiefs-coaches/
.
public betting on the Super Bowl as of Monday per the link
71% of ats bets on Chiefs and 73% of money
82% of bets on Chiefs on money line and 76% of money
Brock Purdy over 0.5 interceptions - -120 - 99% of the bets are on the over
in the 2nd link the reporter asked 4 NFL coaches to pick the winner and they all picked the Chiefs
https://www.pickswise.com/news/who-is-the-public-betting-on-super-bowl-58-super-bowl-public-betting-latest-trends/
https://theathletic.com/5259553/2024/02/09/nfl-super-bowl-picks-49ers-chiefs-coaches/
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Last edited by: lilredrooster on Feb 9, 2024
Please don't feed the trolls
February 9th, 2024 at 12:54:00 PM
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Quote: lilredrooster.
public betting on the Super Bowl as of Monday per the link
71% of ats bets on Chiefs and 73% of money
82% of bets on Chiefs on money line and 76% of money
[snip]
link to original post
This is a perfect time to test the theory that Vegas odds makers control the NFL. No way the Odds makers WANT to lose money so the 49rs are a shoe in to win right?
Aut inveniam viam aut faciam
February 9th, 2024 at 4:34:14 PM
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I'm thinking of better every single under and no proposition bet on the game. Probably at a William Hill book and the day of the game, to give square bettors more time to bet into the other side. I'm not saying I'll win, but I think my losing margin will be under 1%.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
February 9th, 2024 at 7:15:25 PM
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This'll be the first superbowl I've ever bet on, going to a sportsbook in NC tomorrow in fact to do so. I posted my 'possible picks' that I've gleamed from various sources online the past week or so in the other NFL thread. Maybe it's a "first timer" thing, but it really feels like quite a few of these bets are far better than a 50/50 coin flip. I won't know till tomorrow how the book I'm going to allows for betting in terms of $ down and different parlays/legs. Goal is to spend about $500ish on a bunch of bets.
Still not exactly sure which MVP long shot I want to go for, but I'm probably gonna hedge on QB for one pick and WR/back for another.
Still not exactly sure which MVP long shot I want to go for, but I'm probably gonna hedge on QB for one pick and WR/back for another.
February 10th, 2024 at 5:53:14 AM
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.
Sports betting legend Billy Walters is taking the Chiefs -
quote:
"It's not going to be a big bet for me. It's going to be a small bet, somewhere between $500K and a million.
I figure I've got about a 6% advantage."
Walters bet $6 million on the Saints to upset the Colts in a past SB (he won) - he estimated he had a 20% edge in that game.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/2024-super-bowl-betting-why-billy-walters-is-backing-the-kansas-city-chiefs/ar-BB1i2he6
.
Sports betting legend Billy Walters is taking the Chiefs -
quote:
"It's not going to be a big bet for me. It's going to be a small bet, somewhere between $500K and a million.
I figure I've got about a 6% advantage."
Walters bet $6 million on the Saints to upset the Colts in a past SB (he won) - he estimated he had a 20% edge in that game.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/2024-super-bowl-betting-why-billy-walters-is-backing-the-kansas-city-chiefs/ar-BB1i2he6
.
Please don't feed the trolls
February 10th, 2024 at 11:29:32 AM
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.
Crazy Horse 3 a strip club less than a mile from the stadium expects to have between 400 and 500 strippers working throughout Super Bowl Sunday and the night that follows
from Friday thru Sunday they'll be open 24 hours
LV has never seen an increase in overall business like they are now seeing
the amount of business increase this week compared to SB week in other years is estimated at between $600 and $700 million
.
https://theathletic.com/5249513/2024/02/10/super-bowl-las-vegas-business/
.
Crazy Horse 3 a strip club less than a mile from the stadium expects to have between 400 and 500 strippers working throughout Super Bowl Sunday and the night that follows
from Friday thru Sunday they'll be open 24 hours
LV has never seen an increase in overall business like they are now seeing
the amount of business increase this week compared to SB week in other years is estimated at between $600 and $700 million
.
https://theathletic.com/5249513/2024/02/10/super-bowl-las-vegas-business/
.
Please don't feed the trolls
February 11th, 2024 at 9:36:17 AM
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Quote: WizardI'm thinking of better every single under and no proposition bet on the game. Probably at a William Hill book and the day of the game, to give square bettors more time to bet into the other side. I'm not saying I'll win, but I think my losing margin will be under 1%.
link to original post
I did as I planned! This morning I went to the Rampart, which follows South Point lines, and bet on every proposition bet that had "under" or "no" in the description. Each bet was $20. This came to 175 total bets and $3,750 money bet. The writer said this broke his record for number of bets in one transaction by far.
Bets are rounded, I assume down, to the nearest nickel, so I will lose a little in the breakage. It would have taken a long time to size my bets to round evenly.
I plan to write up a full list later. Meanwhile, I am hoping for a slow boring and uneventful game. If the game goes into overtime, I'll probably get killed.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
February 11th, 2024 at 9:41:50 AM
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http://tinyurl.com/29ejypxc
What time does pregame coverage start for the Super Bowl?
Super Bowl pregame coverage starts at 11:30 a.m. ET on CBS, and 2 p.m. ET on Paramount+.
How long is the Super Bowl?
The average run-time for the Super Bowl is about three-and-a-half hours — including the halftime show.
2024 Super Bowl odds
Wondering who will win the Super Bowl in 2024? Yahoo Sports has you covered.
Who is performing at the Super Bowl halftime show?
The 2024 Super Bowl halftime show will be performed by Usher. The pop star recently wrapped up his residence show in Las Vegas, NV — just a short drive from Allegiant Stadium. On the day of the Super Bowl, Usher will also release a new album called Coming Home.
Who is singing the national anthem at the 2024 Super Bowl?
Country music star Reba McEntire will sing the national anthem at Super Bowl 58, rapper Post Malone will provide his rendition of "America the Beautiful," and R&B artist Andra Day will perform "Lift Every Voice and Sing" at the 2024 championship game.
Will Taylor Swift be at the Super Bowl?
According to fan reports, Taylor has touched down at LAX after her 5,700-mile journey from Tokyo. Now, the pop star just needs to get to Las Vegas, NV before kickoff tomorrow to support her boyfriend in the Super Bowl. Do you have your Taylor Swift-themed Super Bowl party prepped?
How much are Super Bowl 58 tickets?
As of time of publication, tickets for Super Bowl LVIII start at $5,600 (before fees) on Ticketmaster.
What time does pregame coverage start for the Super Bowl?
Super Bowl pregame coverage starts at 11:30 a.m. ET on CBS, and 2 p.m. ET on Paramount+.
How long is the Super Bowl?
The average run-time for the Super Bowl is about three-and-a-half hours — including the halftime show.
2024 Super Bowl odds
Wondering who will win the Super Bowl in 2024? Yahoo Sports has you covered.
Who is performing at the Super Bowl halftime show?
The 2024 Super Bowl halftime show will be performed by Usher. The pop star recently wrapped up his residence show in Las Vegas, NV — just a short drive from Allegiant Stadium. On the day of the Super Bowl, Usher will also release a new album called Coming Home.
Who is singing the national anthem at the 2024 Super Bowl?
Country music star Reba McEntire will sing the national anthem at Super Bowl 58, rapper Post Malone will provide his rendition of "America the Beautiful," and R&B artist Andra Day will perform "Lift Every Voice and Sing" at the 2024 championship game.
Will Taylor Swift be at the Super Bowl?
According to fan reports, Taylor has touched down at LAX after her 5,700-mile journey from Tokyo. Now, the pop star just needs to get to Las Vegas, NV before kickoff tomorrow to support her boyfriend in the Super Bowl. Do you have your Taylor Swift-themed Super Bowl party prepped?
How much are Super Bowl 58 tickets?
As of time of publication, tickets for Super Bowl LVIII start at $5,600 (before fees) on Ticketmaster.
February 11th, 2024 at 10:02:18 AM
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I just got a look at the South Point prop sheet, and I noticed a glaring error that could be an AP if you're willing to put some effort into it.
One of the props is for the "MVP of NFL Championship 58."
One small problem: there were "NFL championship games" long before the Super Bowl, so "NFL Championship 58" was years ago. "Any player not listed" pays 20-1.
One of the props is for the "MVP of NFL Championship 58."
One small problem: there were "NFL championship games" long before the Super Bowl, so "NFL Championship 58" was years ago. "Any player not listed" pays 20-1.
February 11th, 2024 at 10:58:25 AM
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Quote: ThatDonGuyI just got a look at the South Point prop sheet, and I noticed a glaring error that could be an AP if you're willing to put some effort into it.
One of the props is for the "MVP of NFL Championship 58."
One small problem: there were "NFL championship games" long before the Super Bowl, so "NFL Championship 58" was years ago. "Any player not listed" pays 20-1.
link to original post
Every sports book in Vegas seems to call it the NFL Championship Game or the Big Game. If someone went to Gaming with this complaint after losing the bet, their chances of the loss being overturned would be well under 1%. Gaming would probably say that any reasonable person would know the South Point meant the Super Bowl. I would agree with Gaming.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
February 11th, 2024 at 2:57:23 PM
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Damn wish I had seen this yesterday! Haha. Hoping you scoop a good win. Any reason why you decided to go 3,700 hard on all these no bets?Quote: WizardQuote: WizardI'm thinking of better every single under and no proposition bet on the game. Probably at a William Hill book and the day of the game, to give square bettors more time to bet into the other side. I'm not saying I'll win, but I think my losing margin will be under 1%.
link to original post
I did as I planned! This morning I went to the Rampart, which follows South Point lines, and bet on every proposition bet that had "under" or "no" in the description. Each bet was $20. This came to 175 total bets and $3,750 money bet. The writer said this broke his record for number of bets in one transaction by far.
Bets are rounded, I assume down, to the nearest nickel, so I will lose a little in the breakage. It would have taken a long time to size my bets to round evenly.
I plan to write up a full list later. Meanwhile, I am hoping for a slow boring and uneventful game. If the game goes into overtime, I'll probably get killed.
link to original post
February 11th, 2024 at 6:32:48 PM
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One minute left in the third. Predict wiz collects 8450
February 11th, 2024 at 7:36:13 PM
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A CBS announcer made a blackjack reference, saying "most of the time in Las Vegas, 19 wins" — was he correct???
February 11th, 2024 at 7:42:30 PM
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Quote: smoothgrhA CBS announcer made a blackjack reference, saying "most of the time in Las Vegas, 19 wins" — was he correct???
link to original post
I heard that and said “huh??!?!”
Ding Dong the Witch is Dead
February 11th, 2024 at 8:03:40 PM
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If your first card is a 9 what are you hoping for next, a 10/face or a 6?
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
February 11th, 2024 at 8:09:00 PM
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Quote: MDawgIf your first card is a 9 what are you hoping for next, a 10/face or a 6?
link to original post
An ace.
Ding Dong the Witch is Dead
February 11th, 2024 at 8:09:30 PM
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Quote: MDawgIf your first card is a 9 what are you hoping for next, a 10/face or a 6?
link to original post
Is the dealer next or the guy next to me?
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
February 11th, 2024 at 8:32:31 PM
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GAH!!!
February 11th, 2024 at 8:34:10 PM
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Wizard did say " if the game goes to overtime, I'll probably be killed." And it did go to overtime. Hopefully, it didn't hurt his outcome very much.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
February 11th, 2024 at 8:36:23 PM
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Next, obviously meaning your next card. Ace would be nice too, but I'm fine with a 10/face.
Give me 19 all day long every hand I'll win a ton, same as if you give me a 7 all day long at Baccarat. The Asians like to say "7 never win" but they start chanting that when the other side has 7.
19 is slightly above the average winning hand.
Give me 19 all day long every hand I'll win a ton, same as if you give me a 7 all day long at Baccarat. The Asians like to say "7 never win" but they start chanting that when the other side has 7.
19 is slightly above the average winning hand.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
February 11th, 2024 at 8:41:18 PM
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There's one prop I didn't see on the South Point list, and I'm not that surprised it wasn't there, especially with those kickers: would any kickoff result in anything other than a touchback? One kick even hit the goal posts.
No safety (-1100): win
No overtime (-1000): loss
Shortest TD in the game under 1.5 yards (-160): loss
Longest TD in the game under 40.5 yards (-110): win
Final margin of victory will not be 3 points (-700): loss
No accepted roughing the passer penalty (-160): win
No special teams TD (-280): win
Last play of the game not a QB keep (+155): win
Team that scores first loses (+150): win
Both teams will not have the lead in the first half (-150): win
Team that scores last loses (+190): loss
Under 1.5 fumbles lost (-300): loss
No quarters will be scoreless (-500): loss
No missed extra point attempts (-400): loss
Under 2.5 players with pass completions (-200): loss
First TD is under 7.5 yards (-110): loss
Last TD is under 6.5 yards (-110): win
Score is still 0-0 after 5 1/2 minutes played (-150): win
Game not tied other than 0-0 (-110): loss
Longest field goal is under 47.5 yards (-110): loss
Shortest field goal is under 27.5 yards (-110): win (the Chiefs' first FG in the second half was 24)
Either team will not make any field goals of at least 33 yards (even): loss
Under 3.5 total field goals (-160): loss
First field goal is under 36.5 yards (-110): loss
49ers will not score a TD in the first quarter (-125): win
Chiefs will not score a TD in the first quarter (-125): win
Chiefs will not score a TD in the second quarter (+130): win
Chiefs will not score a TD in the third quarter (-130): loss
49ers will not score a TD in the fourth quarter (+140): loss
Chiefs will not score a TD in the fourth quarter (+130): win
49ers will not score in every quarter (-210): win
Chiefs will not score in every quarter (-270): win
49ers will not score a rushing TD (+250): win
Chiefs will not score a rushing TD (+135): win
49ers will not score a rushing TD in the first half (+130): win
Chiefs will not score a rushing TD in the first half (-285): win
No safety (-1100): win
No overtime (-1000): loss
Shortest TD in the game under 1.5 yards (-160): loss
Longest TD in the game under 40.5 yards (-110): win
Final margin of victory will not be 3 points (-700): loss
No accepted roughing the passer penalty (-160): win
No special teams TD (-280): win
Last play of the game not a QB keep (+155): win
Team that scores first loses (+150): win
Both teams will not have the lead in the first half (-150): win
Team that scores last loses (+190): loss
Under 1.5 fumbles lost (-300): loss
No quarters will be scoreless (-500): loss
No missed extra point attempts (-400): loss
Under 2.5 players with pass completions (-200): loss
First TD is under 7.5 yards (-110): loss
Last TD is under 6.5 yards (-110): win
Score is still 0-0 after 5 1/2 minutes played (-150): win
Game not tied other than 0-0 (-110): loss
Longest field goal is under 47.5 yards (-110): loss
Shortest field goal is under 27.5 yards (-110): win (the Chiefs' first FG in the second half was 24)
Either team will not make any field goals of at least 33 yards (even): loss
Under 3.5 total field goals (-160): loss
First field goal is under 36.5 yards (-110): loss
49ers will not score a TD in the first quarter (-125): win
Chiefs will not score a TD in the first quarter (-125): win
Chiefs will not score a TD in the second quarter (+130): win
Chiefs will not score a TD in the third quarter (-130): loss
49ers will not score a TD in the fourth quarter (+140): loss
Chiefs will not score a TD in the fourth quarter (+130): win
49ers will not score in every quarter (-210): win
Chiefs will not score in every quarter (-270): win
49ers will not score a rushing TD (+250): win
Chiefs will not score a rushing TD (+135): win
49ers will not score a rushing TD in the first half (+130): win
Chiefs will not score a rushing TD in the first half (-285): win
February 12th, 2024 at 3:16:47 AM
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Doubtful that would get you more than a “Nice try. Next?”Quote: ThatDonGuyI just got a look at the South Point prop sheet, and I noticed a glaring error that could be an AP if you're willing to put some effort into it.
One of the props is for the "MVP of NFL Championship 58."
One small problem: there were "NFL championship games" long before the Super Bowl, so "NFL Championship 58" was years ago. "Any player not listed" pays 20-1.
link to original post
Tickets include the date of the event, so…
I invented a few casino games. Info:
http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ —————————————————————————————————————
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
February 12th, 2024 at 5:57:43 AM
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.
in terms of entertainment value the game was in the running for the greatest game I've ever seen
turnovers at critical times, a blocked extra point, OT - Mahomes great OT drive that included some very surprising runs
really excellent - imho
I'm so very happy that Billy Walters won his $ half million to $ one million dollar bet____________:)
.
in terms of entertainment value the game was in the running for the greatest game I've ever seen
turnovers at critical times, a blocked extra point, OT - Mahomes great OT drive that included some very surprising runs
really excellent - imho
I'm so very happy that Billy Walters won his $ half million to $ one million dollar bet____________:)
.
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Feb 12, 2024
Please don't feed the trolls
February 12th, 2024 at 6:13:26 AM
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Quote: lilredrooster.
in terms of entertainment value the game was in the running for the greatest game I've ever seen
turnovers at critical times, a blocked extra point, OT - Mahomes great OT drive that included some very surprising runs
really excellent - imho
.
link to original post
2nd half was good.
1st half was abysmal.
Ding Dong the Witch is Dead
February 12th, 2024 at 6:59:49 AM
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Quote: WizardMeanwhile, I am hoping for a slow boring and uneventful game. If the game goes into overtime, I'll probably get killed.
link to original post
I haven't done the math yet, but I know with that overtime I got killed.
I lost $837.50 to our own DJTeddyBear on his usual sucker bets. His wins were on overtime, a scoreless quarter and a missed extra point.
I had my own no overtime bet at the Wynn. As I suspected yesterday, OT will cause lots of those prop bets to lose.
That was one of the best Super Bowls ever, to watch, but one of the worst in terms of my betting. At least I didn't bet that much, compared to what I used to throw at the game about ten years go.
Let me go back to licking my wounds.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
February 12th, 2024 at 7:23:51 AM
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Shouldn't all your other unders make up for those losses? It feels like it was a big 'under' game where no one really truly shined,even Mahomes didn't put up the numbers he's been putting up this season.Quote: WizardQuote: WizardMeanwhile, I am hoping for a slow boring and uneventful game. If the game goes into overtime, I'll probably get killed.
link to original post
I haven't done the math yet, but I know with that overtime I got killed.
I lost $837.50 to our own DJTeddyBear on his usual sucker bets. His wins were on overtime, a scoreless quarter and a missed extra point.
I had my own no overtime bet at the Wynn. As I suspected yesterday, OT will cause lots of those prop bets to lose.
That was one of the best Super Bowls ever, to watch, but one of the worst in terms of my betting. At least I didn't bet that much, compared to what I used to throw at the game about ten years go.
Let me go back to licking my wounds.
link to original post
February 12th, 2024 at 7:26:54 AM
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Quote: ChallengedMillyShouldn't all your other unders make up for those losses? It feels like it was a big 'under' game where no one really truly shined,even Mahomes didn't put up the numbers he's been putting up this season.
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We shall see. So many were on things like total rushing/passing yards. That extra time will just add to those totals.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
February 12th, 2024 at 8:08:02 AM
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Thanks again for the action.Quote: WizardI lost $837.50 to our own DJTeddyBear on his usual sucker bets. His wins were on overtime, a scoreless quarter and a missed extra point.
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For the record, we had bets on 6 props where I bet $50 on the yeses, plus $10 on a Scorigami.
The props that lost were Safety, Two point conversion and Special teams / defense TD.
Considering how well I did, both this year and historically, I’m wondering who the sucker is on these bets. 🤔
Just be thankful those six props were $50. I was totally on the fence about making them $100 each this year. 🤦♂️
I invented a few casino games. Info:
http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ —————————————————————————————————————
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
February 12th, 2024 at 8:59:46 AM
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Quote: ChallengedMillyShouldn't all your other unders make up for those losses? It feels like it was a big 'under' game where no one really truly shined,even Mahomes didn't put up the numbers he's been putting up this season.Quote: WizardQuote: WizardMeanwhile, I am hoping for a slow boring and uneventful game. If the game goes into overtime, I'll probably get killed.
link to original post
I haven't done the math yet, but I know with that overtime I got killed.
I lost $837.50 to our own DJTeddyBear on his usual sucker bets. His wins were on overtime, a scoreless quarter and a missed extra point.
I had my own no overtime bet at the Wynn. As I suspected yesterday, OT will cause lots of those prop bets to lose.
That was one of the best Super Bowls ever, to watch, but one of the worst in terms of my betting. At least I didn't bet that much, compared to what I used to throw at the game about ten years go.
Let me go back to licking my wounds.
link to original post
link to original post
??. He exceeded his yards passing number. I think his two TD passes were exactly the expected number. And his rushing yards FAR exceeded his expected number. If you bet the under on Mahomes you lost on all of your bets.
February 12th, 2024 at 11:08:49 AM
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Good summary of the "Top 10" SB commercials.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VSzKxRYxvwE
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VSzKxRYxvwE
"What, me worry?"
February 12th, 2024 at 11:30:04 AM
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Quote: MrVGood summary of the "Top 10" SB commercials.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VSzKxRYxvwE
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This year I did not see a single Super Bowl commercial or the halftime show. i watched the whole game with the sound muted while I worked on another project.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
February 12th, 2024 at 12:29:46 PM
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Here are the first 46 props I've put in a spreadsheet. If anybody has nothing better to do, I would appreciate if someone could grade the ones I didn't. Thank you.
| Number | Description | Odds | W/L | Comments |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3153 | Under 3.5 field goals | -140 | L | Total of 7 |
| 3160 | Under 118.5 total FG yards | -110 | L | |
| 3162 | Distance of last FG made under 37.5 | -110 | W | 27 yards |
| 3164 | FG is first quarter -- No | 100 | W | |
| 3166 | FG is first quarter -- No | 240 | L | Total of 2 |
| 3198 | SF TD in first quarter -- NO | -120 | W | |
| 3200 | SF TD in second quarter -- NO | 145 | L | Total of 1 |
| 3202 | SF TD in third quarter -- NO | 145 | L | |
| 3204 | SF TD in fourth quarter -- NO | L | Total of 1 | |
| 3164 | FG by either team in first quarter -- NO | W | ||
| 3166 | FG by either team in second quarter -- NO | L | ||
| 3168 | FG by either team in third quarter -- NO | -110 | L | Total of 1 |
| 3170 | FG by either team in fourth quarter -- NO | 140 | L | Total of 3 |
| 3158 | Distance of first FG made under 36.5 | 100 | L | 55 yards |
| 3216 | KC scores in every quarter -- NO | -280 | W | No score in first quarter |
| 3152 | Both teams make 33+ yard FG -- NO | 120 | Both made 50+ yard FG | |
| 3150 | Shortest FG under 27.5 yards | -110 | W | Shortest was 24 |
| 3214 | SF scores in every quarter -- NO | -230 | W | No score in first quarter |
| 3206 | KC TD in first quarter -- NO | -140 | W | |
| 3208 | KC TD in second quarter -- NO | 130 | W | |
| 3210 | KC TD in third quarter -- NO | -120 | L | Total of 1 |
| 3212 | KC TD in fourth quarter -- NO | 130 | W | |
| 3148 | Longest FG under 47.5 | -105 | L | Longest was 57 |
| 3240 | Rushing yards by KC un 106.5 | -110 | ||
| 3236 | Net yards in game by KC un 361.5 | -110 | ||
| 3232 | Total TD's by KC un 2.5 | 100 | W | Total of 2 |
| 3234 | Net yards in game by SF un 366.5 | -110 | ||
| 3238 | Rushing yards by SF un 129.5 | -110 | ||
| 3246 | Num of 49'ers to have a rushing attempt under 4 | 110 | ||
| 3242 | Total sacks by SF defense un 2.5 | -220 | ||
| 3218 | SF score a rushing TD -- NO | 245 | W | Both SF TD's by passing |
| 3244 | Total sacks by KC defense un 2.5 | -130 | ||
| 3228 | Total first downs by KC un 21 | -120 | ||
| 3226 | Total first downs by SF un 21.5 | -115 | ||
| 3224 | KC score rushing TD in first half -- NO | -220 | W | |
| 3254 | Total 49'ers to have a reception under 6 | 100 | ||
| 3262 | Will Purdy throw an interception -- NO | 120 | ||
| 3256 | Total 49'ers to have a reception under 7.5 | 100 | ||
| 3252 | Will KC convert a fourth down (excludes penalties) -- NO | 125 | ||
| 3222 | Will 49'ers score a rushing TD in first half -- NO | 115 | W | One TD was by passing |
| 3220 | Will KC score a rushing TD in game -- NO | 110 | ||
| 3230 | Total TD's by SF un 2.5 | 120 | W | Total of 2 |
| 3540 | Will M. Edwards have an interception in game? -- NO | -800 | ||
| 3542 | Will L. Sneed have an intercetion in game? -- NO | -750 | ||
| 3538 | Will C. Ward (SF) have an intercetion in game? -- NO | -800 | ||
| 3532 | Total tackles (solo + assisted) by J. Brown (SF) un 5.5 | 115 |
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
February 12th, 2024 at 3:50:53 PM
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I'm at 142 out of 175 in recording my prop bets.
I was curious how they did the rounding, which is to $0.05. They nicely do it to the nearest $0.05. I expected them to round down.
As an example, one bet had -105 odds. A $20 winning bet should pay $20*(205/105) = $39.047619. They pay $39.05.
I was curious how they did the rounding, which is to $0.05. They nicely do it to the nearest $0.05. I expected them to round down.
As an example, one bet had -105 odds. A $20 winning bet should pay $20*(205/105) = $39.047619. They pay $39.05.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
February 12th, 2024 at 4:17:04 PM
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Here is a full list of my $20 props. Most have not been graded yet. I'll probably just take the whole pile to the counter and the ones I come home with lost.
| Number | Description | Odds | W/L | Comments |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3030 | Total points under 35.5 | 475 | L | |
| 3032 | Total points under 40.5 | 240 | L | |
| 3034 | Total points under 56.5 | -320 | W | |
| 3036 | Total points under 63.5 | -550 | W | |
| 3038 | Total points by 49'ers in game un 24.5 | -120 | ||
| 3040 | Total points by Chiefs un 24 | -120 | ||
| 3042 | Total points in first half by 49'ers un 11.5 | 105 | ||
| 3044 | Total points by Chiefs in first half un 10.5 | -105 | ||
| 3048 | Safety -- NO | -1200 | W | |
| 3050 | Overtime -- No | -1200 | L | |
| 3052 | Successful two point converion -- NO | -320 | W | |
| 3066 | Three unanswered scores -- NO | 145 | ||
| 3068 | Points scored in last two minutes of first half -- NO | 280 | ||
| 3072 | Shortest TD of game under 1.5 | -145 | ||
| 3074 | Longest TD of game under 39.5 | -110 | ||
| 3084 | Game decided by 3 points? -- NO | -475 | L | |
| 3086 | Will team to score first win -- NO | 150 | ||
| 3090 | Will roughing the passer be called in game? -- NO | -240 | ||
| 3092 | Defensive of special teams TD -- NO | -300 | ||
| 3100 | Will last play of game be QB rush? -- NO | 155 | ||
| 3102 | Will both teams have lead in the first half -- NO | -155 | ||
| 3106 | Team to score last wins -- NO | 200 | L | |
| 3112 | Total interceptions under 1.5 | -125 | ||
| 3114 | Total fumbles lost in game un 1.5 | -240 | ||
| 3116 | Scoreless quarter -- No | -360 | L | |
| 3124 | Missed extra point in game -- NO | -400 | L | |
| 3128 | Total players to have pass completion un 2.5 | -270 | ||
| 3130 | Total punts un 7.5 | -155 | ||
| 3132 | Largest lead under 14.5 points | -150 | ||
| 3134 | Total net yards by both teams un 715.5 | -110 | ||
| 3136 | Total combined TD's in game un 5.5 | -110 | ||
| 3138 | Distance of first TD scored un 7.5 | -110 | ||
| 3140 | Distance of last TD scored un 7.5 | -110 | ||
| 3144 | Score in first 5:30 of game -- No | -140 | ||
| 3146 | Game tied after 0-0 -- NO | -105 | L | |
| 3148 | Longest FG under 47.5 | -105 | L | Longest was 57 |
| 3150 | Shortest FG under 27.5 yards | -110 | W | Shortest was 24 |
| 3152 | Both teams make 33+ yard FG -- NO | 120 | L | Both made 50+ yard FG |
| 3153 | Under 3.5 field goals | -140 | L | Total of 7 |
| 3158 | Distance of first FG made under 36.5 | 100 | L | 55 yards |
| 3160 | Under 118.5 total FG yards | -110 | L | |
| 3162 | Distance of last FG made under 37.5 | -110 | W | 27 yards |
| 3164 | FG is first quarter -- No | 100 | W | |
| 3166 | FG by either team in second quarter -- NO | 0 | L | |
| 3168 | FG by either team in third quarter -- NO | -110 | L | Total of 1 |
| 3170 | FG by either team in fourth quarter -- NO | 140 | L | Total of 3 |
| 3198 | SF TD in first quarter -- NO | -120 | W | |
| 3200 | SF TD in second quarter -- NO | 145 | L | Total of 1 |
| 3202 | SF TD in third quarter -- NO | 145 | L | |
| 3204 | SF TD in fourth quarter -- NO | 0 | L | Total of 1 |
| 3206 | KC TD in first quarter -- NO | -140 | W | |
| 3208 | KC TD in second quarter -- NO | 130 | W | |
| 3210 | KC TD in third quarter -- NO | -120 | L | Total of 1 |
| 3212 | KC TD in fourth quarter -- NO | 130 | W | |
| 3214 | SF scores in every quarter -- NO | -230 | W | No score in first quarter |
| 3216 | KC scores in every quarter -- NO | -280 | W | No score in first quarter |
| 3218 | SF score a rushing TD -- NO | 245 | W | Both SF TD's by passing |
| 3220 | Will KC score a rushing TD in game -- NO | 110 | ||
| 3222 | Will 49'ers score a rushing TD in first half -- NO | 115 | W | One TD was by passing |
| 3224 | KC score rushing TD in first half -- NO | -220 | W | |
| 3226 | Total first downs by SF un 21.5 | -115 | ||
| 3228 | Total first downs by KC un 21 | -120 | ||
| 3230 | Total TD's by SF un 2.5 | 120 | W | Total of 2 |
| 3232 | Total TD's by KC un 2.5 | 100 | W | Total of 2 |
| 3234 | Net yards in game by SF un 366.5 | -110 | ||
| 3236 | Net yards in game by KC un 361.5 | -110 | ||
| 3238 | Rushing yards by SF un 129.5 | -110 | ||
| 3240 | Rushing yards by KC un 106.5 | -110 | ||
| 3242 | Total sacks by SF defense un 2.5 | -220 | ||
| 3244 | Total sacks by KC defense un 2.5 | -130 | ||
| 3246 | Num of 49'ers to have a rushing attempt under 4 | 110 | ||
| 3248 | Number of different Chiefs to have a rushing attempt un 4 | -115 | ||
| 3250 | Will 49'ers convert a 4th down (excludes penalties) -- NO | -105 | ||
| 3252 | Will KC convert a fourth down (excludes penalties) -- NO | 125 | ||
| 3254 | Total 49'ers to have a reception under 6 | 100 | ||
| 3256 | Total 49'ers to have a reception under 7.5 | 100 | ||
| 3262 | Will Purdy throw an interception -- NO | 120 | ||
| 3264 | Will Mahomes throw an interception -- NO | -115 | ||
| 3266 | Total completions by Purdy un 20.5 | 100 | ||
| 3268 | Total completions by Mahomes un 25.5 | -110 | ||
| 3270 | Total passing yards by Purdy un 244.5 | -110 | ||
| 3272 | Gross passing yards by Mahomes un 263.5 | -110 | ||
| 3274 | Total pass attempts by Purdy un 29.5 | -105 | ||
| 3276 | Total pass attempts by Mahomes un 36.5 | 100 | ||
| 3278 | Longest completion by Purdy un 36.5 | -110 | ||
| 3280 | Longest completion by Mahomes un 36.5 | -105 | ||
| 3282 | Total TD passes by Purdy un 1.5 | 100 | ||
| 3284 | Total TD passes by Mahomes un 1.5 | 130 | ||
| 3290 | Will Purdy (SF) throw a 1st qtr TD pass -- NO | -270 | ||
| 3292 | Will Purdy (SF) throw a 2nd qtr TD pass -- NO | -150 | ||
| 3294 | Will Purdy (SF) throw a 3rd qtr TD pass -- NO | -240 | ||
| 3296 | Will Purdy (SF) throw a 3rd qtr TD pass -- NO | -165 | ||
| 3298 | Will Mahomes (KC) throw a 1st qtr TD pass -- NO | -240 | ||
| 3300 | Will Mahomes (KC) throw a 2nd qtr TD pass -- NO | -130 | ||
| 3302 | Will Mahomes (KC) throw a 3rd qtr TD pass -- NO | -190 | ||
| 3304 | Will Mahomes (KC) throw a 4th qtr TD pass -- NO | -135 | ||
| 3306 | Distance of first TD pass by Purdy un 9.5 | 130 | ||
| 3308 | Distance of first TD pass by P. Mahomes un 9.5 | -125 | ||
| 3310 | Total rushing yards by B. Purdy (SF) un 11.5 | -110 | ||
| 3312 | Total rushing yards by P. Mahommes (KC) un 25.5 | -110 | ||
| 3314 | First rushing attempt by C. McCaffrey (SF) un 3.5 | 110 | ||
| 3316 | Longest rush by C. McCaffrey (SF) un 18.5 | -110 | ||
| 3318 | Total rushing attempts by C. McCaffrey (SF) un 19.5 | -115 | ||
| 3320 | Total rushing yards by C McCaffrey (SF) un 94.5 | -110 | ||
| 3322 | Total receiving yards by C. McCaffrey (SF) un 35.5 | -110 | ||
| 3324 | Total receptions by C McCaffrey (SF) un 4.5 | 110 | ||
| 3326 | Will C. McCaffrey (SF) score a TD in game -- NO | 200 | ||
| 3328 | First rushing attempt by E. Mitchell (SF) un 2.5 | -105 | ||
| 3330 | Longest rush by E. Mitchell (SF) un 3.5 | -110 | ||
| 3332 | Total rushing attempts by E. Mitchell (SF) un 1.5 | -115 | ||
| 3334 | Total rushing yards by E. Mitchell (SF) un 4.5 | -120 | ||
| 3338 | Will E. Mitchell (SF) score a TD in game -- NO | -900 | ||
| 3340 | First rushing attempt by I. Pachero (KC) un 3.5 | -110 | ||
| 3342 | Longest rush by I. Pacheco (KC) un 15.5 | -110 | ||
| 3344 | Total rushing attempts by I. Pacheco (KC) un 15.5 | -110 | ||
| 3346 | Total rushing yards by I. Pacheco (KC) un 69.5 | -110 | ||
| 3348 | Total receptions by I Pacheco (KC) un 2.5 | 120 | ||
| 3350 | Total receiving yards by I. Pacheco (KC) un 16.5 | -110 | ||
| 3352 | Will I. Pacheco (KC) score a TD in game -- NO | -105 | ||
| 3354 | First rushing attempt by C. Edwards-Helaire un 13.5 | -135 | ||
| 3356 | Total receptions by C. Edwards-Helaire (KC) un 1.5 | -240 | ||
| 3358 | Total receiving yards by C. Edwards-Helarie un 4.5 | -110 | ||
| 3360 | Total rushing yards by C. Edwards-Helaire (KC) un 5.5 | -110 | ||
| 3362 | Will C. Edwards-Helaire (KC) score a TD in game -- NO | -800 | ||
| 3402 | First reception by G. Kittle (SF) un 10.5 | -120 | ||
| 3404 | Total receptions by G. Kittle (SF) un 3.5 | 135 | ||
| 3406 | Total receiving yards by G. Kittle (SF) un 51.5 | -110 | ||
| 3408 | Longest reception by G. Kittle (SF) un 21.5 | -110 | ||
| 3410 | Will G. Kittle (SF) score a TD in game -- NO | -190 | ||
| 3412 | First reception by D. Samuel (SF) un 9.5 | -110 | ||
| 3414 | Total receptions by D. Samuel (SF) un 4.5 | 125 | ||
| 3416 | Total receiving yards by D. Samuel (SF) un 61.5 | -110 | ||
| 3418 | Longest reception by D. Samuel (SF) un 21.5 | -110 | ||
| 3420 | Will D. Samuel (SF) score a TD in game -- NO | -150 | ||
| 3422 | First reception by B. Aiyuk (SF) un 12.5 | -105 | ||
| 3424 | Total receptions by B. Aiyuk (SF) un 4.5 | -150 | ||
| 3426 | Total receiving yards by B. Aiyuk (SF) un 61.5 | -110 | ||
| 3428 | Longest reception by B. Aiyuk (SF) un 23.5 | -110 | ||
| 3430 | Will B. Aiyuk (SF) score a TD in game -- NO | -185 | ||
| 3444 | Total receptions by J. Jennings (SF) un 1.5 | -145 | ||
| 3446 | Total receiving yards by J. Jennings (SF) un 14.5 | -110 | ||
| 3448 | Longest reception by J. Jennings (SF) un 12.5 | -110 | ||
| 3450 | Will J. Jennings (SF) score a TD in game -- NO | -750 | ||
| 3452 | First reception by T. Kelce (KC) un 8.5 | -110 | ||
| 3454 | Total receptions by T. Kelce (KC) un 7.5 | -160 | ||
| 3456 | Total receiving yards by T. Kelce (KC) un 71.5 | -110 | ||
| 3458 | Longest reception by T. Kelce (KC) un 21.5 | -110 | ||
| 3460 | Will T. Kelce score a TD in game -- NO | 105 | ||
| 3462 | First reception by R. Rice (KC) un 8.5 | -110 | ||
| 3464 | Total receptions by R. Rice (KC) un 6.5 | -115 | ||
| 3466 | Total receiving yards by R. Rice (KC) un 68.5 | -110 | ||
| 3468 | Longest reception by R. Rice (KC) un 20.5 | -110 | ||
| 3470 | Will R. Rice (KC) score a TD -- NO | -165 | ||
| 3472 | Total receiving yards by J. Watson (KC) un 16.5 | -110 | ||
| 3474 | Will J. Watson (KC) score a TD -- NO | -700 | ||
| 3476 | Total receiving yards by N. Gray (KC) un 13.5 | -110 | ||
| 3478 | Will N. Gray (KC) score a TD -- NO | -1000 | ||
| 3502 | FG's by J. Moody (SF) un 1.5 | -110 | L | Total of 3 |
| 3504 | Total kicking points by J. Moody (SF) un 7.5 | -135 | ||
| 3506 | Total FG's by Butker (KC) un 1.5 | 105 | L | Total of 4 |
| 3508 | Total kicking points by H Butker (KC) un 7.5 | -120 | ||
| 3510 | Total punts by M. Wishnowsky (SF) un 3.5 | -120 | L | Total of 5 |
| 3512 | Total punts by T. Townsend (KC) un 3.5 | 100 | L | Total of 5 |
| 3514 | Longest punt by Wishnowsky (SF) under 57.5 | -115 | ||
| 3516 | Longest punt by T. Townsend (KC) under 56.5 | 100 | ||
| 3522 | Total solo & assisted tackels by D. Greenlaw (SF) un 7.5 | 100 | ||
| 3524 | Total solo & assisted tackels by N. Bolton (KC) un 8.5 | 105 | ||
| 3528 | Total solo & assisted tackels by F. Warner (SF) un 8.5 | -140 | ||
| 3530 | Total solo & assisted tackets by J. Reid (KC) un 5.5 | 125 | ||
| 3532 | Total tackles (solo + assisted) by J. Brown (SF) un 5.5 | 115 | ||
| 3534 | Total solo & assisted tackets by t. McDuffie(KC) un 4.5 | -115 | ||
| 3536 | Will T. McDuffie (KC) have an interception -- NO | -1000 | ||
| 3538 | Will C. Ward (SF) have an intercetion in game? -- NO | -800 | ||
| 3540 | Will M. Edwards have an interception in game? -- NO | -800 | ||
| 3542 | Will L. Sneed have an intercetion in game? -- NO | -750 |
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
February 12th, 2024 at 4:53:39 PM
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Quote: smoothgrhA CBS announcer made a blackjack reference, saying "most of the time in Las Vegas, 19 wins" — was he correct???
link to original post
If you were guaranteed a 19 every hand, you’d win money.
February 12th, 2024 at 4:56:15 PM
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Shanahan should be fired for his decision to take the ball first in OT.
Considering the magnitude of the game, could be worst coaching decision of all time.
Considering the magnitude of the game, could be worst coaching decision of all time.
February 12th, 2024 at 5:23:08 PM
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Quote: WizardI'm at 142 out of 175 in recording my prop bets.
I was curious how they did the rounding, which is to $0.05. They nicely do it to the nearest $0.05. I expected them to round down.
As an example, one bet had -105 odds. A $20 winning bet should pay $20*(205/105) = $39.047619. They pay $39.05.
link to original post
Kudos to Rampart.
The Good Will generated is worth so much more than a quarter cent in breakage.
May the cards fall in your favor.
February 12th, 2024 at 5:25:20 PM
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Quote: FinsRuleShanahan should be fired for his decision to take the ball first in OT.
Considering the magnitude of the game, could be worst coaching decision of all time.
link to original post
It’s so funny that’s the gut reaction, but it’s not even clear it’s a mistake. It’s a very close decision what the right move is.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
February 12th, 2024 at 5:37:36 PM
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There’s no good reason to take the ball first…
February 12th, 2024 at 5:42:53 PM
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Quote: FinsRuleThere’s no good reason to take the ball first…
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Of course there is. Lots of commentary today about it.
Third possession on offense is a big deal.
There are other factors that cut the other way.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
February 12th, 2024 at 5:52:22 PM
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I’m not worried about the 3rd possession in overtime. I want to stop Mahomes (giving him only 3 downs per possession), or I want to know exactly what I need. And I don’t want them to know what they need.
It’s just the easiest decision.
It’s just the easiest decision.
February 12th, 2024 at 5:54:24 PM
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Quote: FinsRuleI’m not worried about the 3rd possession in overtime. I want to stop Mahomes (giving him only 3 downs per possession), or I want to know exactly what I need. And I don’t want them to know what they need.
It’s just the easiest decision.
link to original post
It’s nice you aren’t worried about it and that means there’s “no good reason” to receive. Checks out. I’ll ignore the analytics in that case.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
