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ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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December 20th, 2022 at 2:45:06 PM permalink
In a terrible situation***, SJS down 17 and the total is 43 (at the time, I started writing this post).

***: Both are "losing ATM", but at best only one of my two bets can win in this game. : (
DRich
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December 20th, 2022 at 3:05:17 PM permalink
San Jose just scored, maybe the comeback is on.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
ksdjdj
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December 20th, 2022 at 4:10:45 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

Quote: DRich

Quote: SOOPOO

Do you have any picks on the 3 college games today? I am already in on EMU under 54.5. The line is now 53. I have 4 profit boosts I need to use!
link to original post



I really like San Jose -4.
link to original post


(snip)
. Also, a $100 / "for fun bet" on Liberty +3.5 @ $1.90***

***: I originally liked them as ~x, but a site that I use to track the "smart money" (amongst other things) suggests that they are betting on Toledo in that game (so up to you)?
(snip)
link to original post


I used my "phone a friend" life-line^^^, and he says I should look at Toledo -2*** @ -140, so I had them for $5.6k to win $4k.

^^^: Reminder, even though he is not infallible, I believe he is significantly better than me at sports betting ( he generally doesn't make anywhere near as many bets as me in any given week, though).

***: Since this is not my working / opinion , it will be posted in the "adjustments" section of the results.
unJon
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December 20th, 2022 at 7:18:40 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj


^^^: Reminder, even though he is not infallible, I believe he is significantly better than me at sports betting ( he generally doesn't make anywhere near as many bets as me in any given week, though).

link to original post



Quote truncated and bold added.

That’s actually a sign of a better sports handicapper. Fewer bets.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
ksdjdj
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December 21st, 2022 at 3:22:34 AM permalink
Quote: unJon

Quote: ksdjdj


^^^: Reminder, even though he is not infallible, I believe he is significantly better than me at sports betting ( he generally doesn't make anywhere near as many bets as me in any given week, though).

link to original post



Quote truncated and bold added.

That’s actually a sign of a better sports handicapper. Fewer bets.
link to original post


He said I could talk about this:

. I let him use my account by putting the money on for him, and charge him 0.5%^^^ of the total value of the ticket, win or lose (in Australia this legal, I don't know about USA).
^^^: I probably would charge ~1%, if we weren't friends before we started doing this.
. If I ask and he ends up tipping me something he thinks is value, then he doesn't pay me anything for that games' bet or series of bets.
. I only ask him on relatively rare occasions, so far this season I am 2-0-1 using his recommendation (so two wins and a draw).

Side note: he was actually smart*** and lucky*** enough to have about $3k on the Toledo Rockets -1.5 @ $1.68 (~ -147) earlier on game-day, using my account.

***: Smart, because the the odds seemed to keep shortening a decent amount from that price, and lucky, because the Rockets won by 2.

----
Graded bets for tomorrow:

. 3 units on South Alabama Jags -2.5 @ ~ -150
. Also, 0.5 units on them -4.5 @ +100

Note 1: -4.5 @ +100, is about as good as -2.5 @ -150, (-4 @ -110, is also acceptable, and all are about xxx).
Note 2: This is a rare case that I also had them as xxx before things like opt-outs ( there are fairly significant ones for the Hilltoppers ).

-----
Other:
Too bad the Toledo game didn't go to a 21-21 tie in regulation, as the over would have had at least some chance of hitting : (
ksdjdj
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December 21st, 2022 at 3:57:04 PM permalink

Playoff ----PointsPointsExpectedActualPredicted No.Actual No.----
Berth (A/B/F)TeamForAgainstWin %Win %of Winsof WinsTeam
BPHI41126870.74%92.86%9.9013PHI
BBUF38525070.92%78.57%9.9311BUF
AKC41432262.82%78.57%8.7911KC
AMIN35134950.70%78.57%7.1011MIN
ASF33821072.74%71.43%10.1810SF
CIN36928862.65%71.43%8.7710CIN
BDAL39426968.76%71.43%9.6310DAL
BAL30426357.66%64.29%8.079BAL
NYG28731246.21%60.71%6.478.5NYG
LAC31234046.09%57.14%6.458LAC
MIA34534450.56%57.14%7.088MIA
WSH26527648.36%53.57%6.777.5WSH
TEN25529343.45%50.00%6.087TEN
NE30026955.89%50.00%7.827NE
SEA35535550.41%50.00%7.067SEA
DET36936451.10%50.00%7.157DET
NYJ28126353.74%50.00%7.527NYJ
TB24728842.73%42.86%5.986TB
GB28731445.89%42.86%6.426GB
JAX33432851.32%42.86%7.196JAX
LV33833750.56%42.86%7.086LV
CLE31332648.36%42.86%6.776CLE
PIT25130940.08%42.86%5.616PIT
CAR27631443.94%35.71%6.155CAR
NO28631545.56%35.71%6.385NO
ATL30633346.16%35.71%6.465ATL
IND24533734.86%32.14%4.884.5IND
FARI29237238.44%28.57%5.384ARI
FDEN21825342.96%28.57%6.014DEN
FLAR23032034.34%28.57%4.814LAR
FCH29035839.94%21.43%5.593CH
FHOU23534432.08%10.71%4.491.5HOU


Note 1 : A = " Division Winner ", B = "Made it to a Playoff Berth" , and F = "Failed to make the Playoffs"

Note 2: The figures in the "Win % column" have been adjusted so that the sum of the whole column is 1600%.



Games----PointsPointsExpectedActualPredicted No.Actual No.----
PlayedTeamForAgainstWin %Win %of Winsof WinsTeam
13PHI38624871.38%92.31%9.2812PHI
13BUF35322172.45%76.92%9.4210BUF
13KC38429862.94%76.92%8.1810KC
13MIN31231350.26%76.92%6.5310MIN
13DAL36022971.79%76.92%9.3310DAL
13SF31719772.75%69.23%9.469SF
13BAL30125059.68%69.23%7.769BAL
13CIN33526562.03%69.23%8.069CIN
13MIA31631251.07%61.54%6.648MIA
13WSH25325649.83%57.69%6.487.5WSH
13NYG26730044.57%57.69%5.797.5NYG
13TEN24127643.63%53.85%5.677TEN
13LAC29532645.40%53.85%5.907LAC
13NYJ26424354.59%53.85%7.107NYJ
13SEA34233451.62%53.85%6.717SEA
13NE27623957.63%53.85%7.497NE
13TB22425444.12%46.15%5.746TB
13DET34934750.71%46.15%6.596DET
13GB26330243.49%38.46%5.655GB
13JAX29429450.42%38.46%6.555JAX
13LV30831349.61%38.46%6.455LV
13CAR26029044.94%38.46%5.845CAR
13ATL28831246.40%38.46%6.035ATL
13CLE30032346.70%38.46%6.075CLE
13PIT22729337.83%38.46%4.925PIT
13IND20929833.25%34.62%4.324.5IND
13ARI27734839.11%30.77%5.084ARI
13NO26529744.70%30.77%5.814NO
13LAR21829635.46%30.77%4.614LAR
13DEN19423840.26%23.08%5.233DEN
13CHI27033340.00%23.08%5.203CHI
13HOU21131431.37%11.54%4.081.5HOU


Important: I haven't adjusted these results to any "strength of schedule" yet, so it is just the "raw data".

Note 1: If any figure in the "Actual No. of Wins" ends in 0.5, then that just means that they had an "odd number of tied games" (all of those have teams have only tied once, so far this season).

Note 2: I am just using the info on the standings page on ESPN (feel free to check for errors, if you like).

----
How to use the above table to work out how to get a "ball-park estimated spread" for a game,
1) Find two teams that are playing each other this week
2) Go to the column "Expected win %" and find the figure for each team.
3) Multiply the above figures by 16.
4) Subtract the bigger figure from the smaller figure.
5a) Multiply that figure by 2 (that will be the 'dogs' "estimated spread")
5b) To work out the "estimated spread" for the favorite, just put a "- " in front of the figure.
6) Optional: Adjust for any home field advantage (I usually set this between 0 and 1 , but you can use any figure you think is a good estimate).

Important 1: This method is based on the "old" 16 game regular season, so that is why step 3 is to "Multiply ... by 16".

Important 2 (but obvious): The team with the bigger "Expected win %" will always be the favorite (before making any adjustments, at least).

Important 3: This will just get you a "ball park" estimate, as it doesn't take into account things like "strength of schedule", "key injuries", "eliminated teams, tanking for draft picks^^^ ",and any other factors you think will need to make an adjustment for.

^^^: Any teams that have been eliminated from the playoffs may be subject to this. Though I personally don't believe in it strongly enough to account for it in my own estimates (I find this a very hard area to account for, so if you do use this, then it is just another adjustment you have to make to the "ball-park estimate").

Hypothetical Example using the above method ("Strongest Team" vs "Weakest Team"):

1) Pretend SF is playing HOU this week, whether they are or aren't (I haven't checked)
2) SF = 72.75%, and HOU = 31.37%, "Expected win %"
3) SF = 11.64, and HOU = 5.02
4) 11.64 - 5.02 = 6.62.
5a) 6.62 x 2 = 13.24 = +13.24
5b) -13.24
6) I will use 0 for this game, since it is just a "hypothetical game".

Therefore, the "ball-park estimate" for SF should have them as a 13 to 13.5 point favorite when playing against HOU, (using the above figures).
ksdjdj
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December 22nd, 2022 at 4:31:21 PM permalink
x: 2 units on the Jags' +2.5 @ $2.00 ("Prime - time " / special odds).
xxx: 2.5 units on the under 34.5 @ $2.50 (had this bet a day and a half ago, so was tossing up whether to post it like this, or as an "adjustment" , as I didn't post it "close" to when I actually had it).

Jags' game - "live betting plan":

Jets' ^^^ look like a solid potential live bet to me if you can get +7.5*** on them, if they happen to be down 10-11*** pts at half time.
^^^: Would have to see "how they are playing", but I tentatively have it as a high xx bet, if this potential situation occurs (plan to have about 2.6 to 2.75 units on them).
***: For any other score differences greater than 11 (in the Jags' favor) just take about 3.5 pts off whatever the "half-time" dif. is (eg if the Jags' are 14 pts in front at half-time, then +10.5 for the the Jets' would be great value, IMO).

----
Extra:
. For the most recent college game results' , I have been wrong "BIG". : (
. Air force is still looking great to me @ the current +3.5
. In the Jags' game, the average EV is about 5%### , if I had an "even payout on each option", but I had $1.5k on the under, and $4.8k on the over 28.5 (I win more on the over, because I wanted to partially off-set my 2.5 units on the under 34.5 graded bet).
###: I received, over 28.5 @ -250 / $1.40 (with one 'book) and under 28.5 @ +320 / $4.20 (with another 'book).

----
Spelling not checked, because I want to watch the college game starting soon (now?).
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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December 22nd, 2022 at 7:00:28 PM permalink
Downgraded to x***

Bets made at half-time:
1 unit on the jets +6.5 @ +125
1 unit on the jets +7.5 @ about -111

***Will explain why later as it is hard to write by phone

-----
Explanation / Update (~2145, Pac Time):
While eating lunch, I was watching the Air Force game on one TV, and the Jags' game on another TV (of course I had the sound off on the NFL game, too).

So, even though I couldn't hear the NFL broad-cast, I reduced the bet to x, because I saw that there was at least one injury during the 1st half for the Jets (I couldn't see who the first injury was, because of a bad camera angle at the time that I noticed it, too).

But, I didn't know that they planned on taking Z Wilson out (either due to injury, "because he was playing bad", or even both?) at half-time, or just before/after(?) and replace him with Streveler^^^ (because someone was talking to me at the time).

^^^: I probably would not have had the "live bet", if I knew that Streveler was going to play the entire 2nd half, because I have him @ an estimated value of 43.5% of beating any given spread, when using Wilson*** as the "50/50 bench-mark".

***: But going by how bad Wilson seemed to be in the 1st half, combined with how great the Jags' QB and Team were playing (overall) I probably still would have lost on my "live bet", in a universe where Wilson ended up playing the entire 2nd half whole game.

------
Update 2 (~2230, Pac Time):

Strike-through in the previous update made, as I now know that Wilson was benched a bit before HT - see link below:
https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/jets/2022/12/22/jets-bench-qb-zach-wilson-chris-streveler-jaguars/10947841002/
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Dec 22, 2022
ksdjdj
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December 22nd, 2022 at 9:21:26 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

(snip)
Extra:
(snip)
. In the Jags' game, the average EV is about 5%### , if I had an "even payout on each option", but I had $1.5k on the under, and $4.8k on the over 28.5 (I win more on the over, because I wanted to partially off-set my 2.5 units on the under 34.5 graded bet).
###: I received, over 28.5 @ -250 / $1.40 (with one 'book) and under 28.5 @ +320 / $4.20 (with another 'book).
(snip)
link to original post


I know that no one has called me out on this, but I was just thinking to myself, "would I believe these fairly big edges are possible in an "arb-like" scenario" ? (personally, I would probably be at least a bit skeptical)

So, that is the main reason why I decided to post links to the screenshots I took before the Jet's game that show the "alt totals and odds^^^ " (see links below):

^^^: In the first link, the odds changed to $1.38 for the over 28.5, but that was after I had my $4.8k bet @ $1.40 (even at $1.38, there was still over a 3.8% implied advantage, on the "arb opportunity").

Note 1: All odds are Decimal Odds, as they both are Australian betting sites.

Note 2: The first link shows' the "betting shop's " odds (the one with the "good prices on the alt overs"), and the second link shows' an online 'book that I currently bet with (it is the one with the "good prices on the unders").

Note 3 (Reminder): With the 2nd link / 2nd 'book, I am "tweaking the amounts/bets I am actually having to the ones that I am posting to this forum (slightly) ".

Book_that_had_the good_price_on_the_over(s)

Book_that_had_the good_price_on_the_unders(s)

------
Lastly, I plan to remove the above links from my one-drive folder, in 28-30 hours.
SOOPOO
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December 23rd, 2022 at 5:34:34 AM permalink
That plus 420/ minus 380 was sweet.

I wonder if someone has a computer checking these things in real time, and making ‘auto bets’ in real time?

Seems like it would be too difficult, but maybe that’s just because I have no computer programming skills?
ksdjdj
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December 24th, 2022 at 2:34:10 AM permalink
Not planning on having many bets tomorrow, but I like the "alt spread^^^ " for the Bengals' -9.5 @ +255 for 1.5 units / x xx.

Edit/Update (See above, strike-through, and change&&& in bold, made a bit before11am, Pac Time)

&&&: When I originally posted this, I multiplied 1.5 by the American odds, instead of the Decimal odds to work out / estimate what the grade should be, so it should have been a high xx grade.

^^^: Would have preferred to bet the Bengals' -3, but the 'books that I am using all seem to have better odds on the Pats' at that spread (compared to the "market average").


Quote: SOOPOO

That plus 420/ minus 380 was sweet.

I wonder if someone has a computer checking these things in real time, and making ‘auto bets’ in real time?

Seems like it would be too difficult, but maybe that’s just because I have no computer programming skills?
link to original post


I am sure it is relatively easy for someone with the computer skills (but I could be wrong though?)

Also, I have taken the "screenshots" off of one-drive, now.

----
Other:
. FYI: The $1.38 translates to about -263 American ***

***: When the odds are less than $2 Decimal Odds (so in other words "odds on") then this is a formula for converting from Decimal to American >>> (1 / (1- "Decimal Odds" )) x 100 <<< see "real life proof" below:

Proof $1.38 = ~ -263 American:
(1 / (1 - 1.38)) x 100 = (1 / (- 0.38)) x 100 = (- 2.63)... x 100 = -263... = ~ -263 American odds


. Even if I can find some more "arb-like" opportunities, the "betting shop" isn't open tomorrow (Australia Time) because of Christmas (Where I live, Christmas technically starts' in less than 4 hours, but realistically it will be 7 hours or so, before I wake up for it).
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Dec 24, 2022
ksdjdj
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December 24th, 2022 at 1:23:53 PM permalink
Just had a bet: xxx/ 3 units on the Eagles +4 @ 1.93

Merry Christmas everyone, for tomorrow.
DRich
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December 24th, 2022 at 2:42:38 PM permalink
Hawaii Bowl tonight at 8pm. I have not seen MTSU play this year but looking at just stats I wonder why they are getting 7 points. The only think I can think of is that SDSU regularly plays in Hawaii so maybe they are more comfortable and obviously have a shorter flight. I would give a slight lean to the Blue Raiders.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
ksdjdj
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December 24th, 2022 at 3:07:43 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

Hawaii Bowl tonight at 8pm. I have not seen MTSU play this year but looking at just stats I wonder why they are getting 7 points. The only think I can think of is that SDSU regularly plays in Hawaii so maybe they are more comfortable and obviously have a shorter flight. I would give a slight lean to the Blue Raiders.
link to original post


I like MTSU +7 as well, as I think they should be somewhere around +5.5 to +6.5^^^
^^^: If you only go by the "for and against totals*** ", then SDSU should be between a "Pick em" and -1, for this matchup, though.
*** (Reminder): For and against, is a good place to start, but it doesn't take into account of things like "Strength of schedule, players' out, "distance and E to W or W to E direction### of travel to the stadium", and other important (but more subjective) adjustments".
###: That was a general statement, obviously with the game being played in Hawaii, the direction of travel is pretty easy to work out for this one.

I also like the under 46.5 to 47 a little bit (but only if I was forced to tip every game).

-----
"20/20 hind-sight":
Too bad I thought the Bills' should be ~ -10 for the game earlier today, because if I thought they should have been -10.5 (or better) I would have had an ATS/ graded bet on them.
ksdjdj
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December 24th, 2022 at 3:40:54 PM permalink
Written just after the score went to 27-27 in the Cowboys' game:

If i didn't know the exact score, but just knew the current total, Net Yards, and Average Yards (Yards Per Play) for each team, then I would have the following as my team total estimate(s):

29 to 30 pts to the Eagles, and 24 to 25 pts to the Cowboys' ***

***: Obviously this doesn't take into account the turnover differential, and any pts scored "directly^^^ because of turnovers".
^^^; By directly I mean either a "pick-6" , or on the drive that followed the turnover.

---
Update/ Edit in bold (~1700, Pac Time)
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Dec 24, 2022
ksdjdj
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December 24th, 2022 at 4:52:22 PM permalink
Tried to get xxx / 4 units on the Steelers' ML @ $1.75 (~ -133) , but it wasn't accepted

So I managed to have the 4 units @ $1.78 ML (~ -128) with another 'book (they were $1.71, when I originally looked at them)

I will still count the original one for this thread, and probably put the difference in the "adjustments section", if my bet wins.
----
Edits in bold (~1710, Pac Time)
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Dec 24, 2022
ksdjdj
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December 25th, 2022 at 1:20:31 AM permalink
Cardinals are looking great*** +8 @ $1.90

***: xxx @ $1.90, but I am going to wait, as I think I will be able to get ~$2.00, since they should have the "special odds" for that game.
ksdjdj
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December 25th, 2022 at 1:50:54 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

Cardinals are looking great*** +8 @ $1.90

***: xxx @ $1.90, but I am going to wait, as I think I will be able to get ~$2.00, since they should have the "special odds" for that game.
link to original post


Welp, I was wrong^^^ about the price movement, but I still had 3.2 units on them +7.5 @ $1.95 "special/boosted odds".

^^^: I was looking "very hard" at the +8.5 @ $1.88 early this morning(East Australia Time) but I decided to wait, so I could get the "no vig market" (not too much difference against me, at least).

Edit(s) in bold made at ~1510, Pac Time.

-----
Other:
Even though I don't particularly like them###, I had $1k on the Rams' -5.5 @ $4.50, since I thought the price was a "good value one, at that spread".

###: I actually have a very small lean towards the Broncos' and even smaller lean towards the under, for this game.

Note (Reminder): Bet will go in the adjustment section, because I didn't have strong enough opinion (for either team) to think there was any value at the "normal ATS odds/line" .

-----
Update (1355, Pac Time):
I don't mind if anyone believes me or not, but I started writing this when the score was 0-0 (the Rams' were in FG range, at the time).

Note: Score is now 10-0 to the Rams' about 60% through the 1st quarter (glad I didn't bet on the under 22.5 @ $8).

----
Update 2 (During Half Time):

Very glad I didn't bet on the total now (score is already just over the closing total of 36 to 36.5)

Also, In this kind of situation I would normally be tempted to take the Broncos' +21.5 to +22.5 live odds @ HT, but I think Mayfield will want to keep "playing hard" for most of the 2nd half, to try and "show-off his skills" for next seasons' potential buyers (?)
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Dec 25, 2022
DRich
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December 25th, 2022 at 3:20:05 PM permalink
I have a strong lean to the over in the Bowling Green game tomorrow. I believe it starts at 2:30pm EST. My parents both went to Bowling Green so I have a natural affinity to root for the Falcons. I don't know how excited the BG players will be getting for a trip to Detroit (about a two hour bus ride for them).
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
SOOPOO
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December 25th, 2022 at 3:30:22 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

I have a strong lean to the over in the Bowling Green game tomorrow. I believe it starts at 2:30pm EST. My parents both went to Bowling Green so I have a natural affinity to root for the Falcons. I don't know how excited the BG players will be getting for a trip to Detroit (about a two hour bus ride for them).
link to original post

I wonder how much the kids want to be in a ‘better’ bowl versus a ‘better’ place? I’ve watched a few of these useless, unimportant, ‘bowls’. The ones that feature two 6-6 teams from below average conferences. Since the weather has sucked for most of them, the stands are close to empty. The TV audience can’t possibly reach 7 figures. I have no idea how much money everyone loses on these fiascos!
ksdjdj
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December 25th, 2022 at 7:12:03 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: DRich

I have a strong lean to the over in the Bowling Green game tomorrow. I believe it starts at 2:30pm EST. My parents both went to Bowling Green so I have a natural affinity to root for the Falcons. I don't know how excited the BG players will be getting for a trip to Detroit (about a two hour bus ride for them).
link to original post

I wonder how much the kids want to be in a ‘better’ bowl versus a ‘better’ place? I’ve watched a few of these useless, unimportant, ‘bowls’. The ones that feature two 6-6 teams from below average conferences. Since the weather has sucked for most of them, the stands are close to empty. The TV audience can’t possibly reach 7 figures. I have no idea how much money everyone loses on these fiascos!
link to original post


I would have this matchup as +6.0 for Bowling Green, if only going by each teams' for and against figures (as I have stated/implied before, using those f / a figures will only get you a very rough figure for estimating the "fair spread").

Important: If I didn't make a mistake with the for and against figures above, then the strength of schedule, players' out (etc) must be "fairly huge" for this game, because a person that I trust has BG @ -4.0, for this matchup

-------
Total:
Also, I think the total should be around 46.5 (I hope I am wrong, as I am not betting^^^ on the total for this game, ATM).

^^^: Supposedly the "smart money" and the "big $" bets are on the over, so those are the main reasons why I am not betting on the under.
ksdjdj
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December 26th, 2022 at 1:27:57 AM permalink
Below are some non-graded bets that I think are "good value", based on the public spread / "market average" of Colts +4:

$400 on the Colts' -4.5 @ $4.50
$600 on the Colts' -5.5 @ $4.95
$800 on the Colts' -6.5 @ $5.50

Note 1: I wanted the entire amount $1,400 on the -6.5, but they cut me to $800.

Note 2: Strike through and edits in bold were made at about 0140, Pac Time.
----
"For Fun" bet:

$150 to win $105 on BG @ -1.5

-----
My Planned Graded Bets (PB) that are likely NOT going to be made:

PB: C. Carolina +8.5
Reason: "market average" is now ~ +7.0 for C. Carolina (reminder: I didn't have the bet, because I was "staggering my bets" ) .

PB: NC State +2
Reason: "market average" is now ~"pick'em odds" for NC State (reminder: I didn't have the bet, because I was "staggering my bets" ) .

PB: 'Bama / K State: Over 54
Reason: "market average" is now ~ 55.5 for the Total (reminder: I didn't have the bet, because I was "staggering my bets" ) .
DRich
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December 26th, 2022 at 4:48:22 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: DRich

I have a strong lean to the over in the Bowling Green game tomorrow. I believe it starts at 2:30pm EST. My parents both went to Bowling Green so I have a natural affinity to root for the Falcons. I don't know how excited the BG players will be getting for a trip to Detroit (about a two hour bus ride for them).
link to original post

I wonder how much the kids want to be in a ‘better’ bowl versus a ‘better’ place? I’ve watched a few of these useless, unimportant, ‘bowls’. The ones that feature two 6-6 teams from below average conferences. Since the weather has sucked for most of them, the stands are close to empty. The TV audience can’t possibly reach 7 figures. I have no idea how much money everyone loses on these fiascos!
link to original post



I don't think the bowls or the teams lose money on these games. These games are all about the TV revenue. I have no idea how much TV is spending for these games or how much revenue they are collecting from commercials.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
SOOPOO
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December 26th, 2022 at 6:10:15 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: DRich

I have a strong lean to the over in the Bowling Green game tomorrow. I believe it starts at 2:30pm EST. My parents both went to Bowling Green so I have a natural affinity to root for the Falcons. I don't know how excited the BG players will be getting for a trip to Detroit (about a two hour bus ride for them).
link to original post

I wonder how much the kids want to be in a ‘better’ bowl versus a ‘better’ place? I’ve watched a few of these useless, unimportant, ‘bowls’. The ones that feature two 6-6 teams from below average conferences. Since the weather has sucked for most of them, the stands are close to empty. The TV audience can’t possibly reach 7 figures. I have no idea how much money everyone loses on these fiascos!
link to original post



I don't think the bowls or the teams lose money on these games. These games are all about the TV revenue. I have no idea how much TV is spending for these games or how much revenue they are collecting from commercials.
link to original post



I don’t know either, of course. Someone is losing $$$! The TV revenue for a barely watched game can’t be that much. They probably SELL very few tickets. It can’t be cheap to move/feed/house the hundreds of players/staff/coaches etc to the venue.
billryan
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December 26th, 2022 at 7:47:17 AM permalink
ESPN actually owns a number of these bowls, and every bowl has a number of sponsors.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
SOOPOO
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December 26th, 2022 at 8:32:18 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

ESPN actually owns a number of these bowls, and every bowl has a number of sponsors.
link to original post



Nothing says tradition like the Roofclaim.com Bowl.
ksdjdj
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December 26th, 2022 at 2:39:53 PM permalink
Started watching the game from the 2nd half: potentially a great come-back brewing for BG ! (were down 17, now down by 5).
DRich
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December 26th, 2022 at 2:48:21 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

Started watching the game from the 2nd half: potentially a great come-back brewing for BG ! (were down 17, now down by 5).
link to original post



The first half BG looked completely incompetent.

I didn't realize Jerry Kill was the coach of NM State. I was a fan of his at NIU and Minnesota.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
ksdjdj
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December 27th, 2022 at 2:28:00 PM permalink
xx: 2.5 units on Ok St +4.5 @ $1.95
xxx: 3 units on Ok St +4.5 @ $1.95

Note: I had them as xxx, but supposedly the "smart money" is coming for Wisconsin "a little bit" (so that is why I down-graded it to xx).

----
Other:
. Bet can still lose, but I had $4k on Memphis Tigers -6.5 @ $1.68 (Written about 4 minutes into the 2nd half, when the score was 24-3 to the Tigers).

Note: This will go in the "adjustment section" of the results page, if I decide to post it again later.

. If I thought E Carolina were value, then I would have taken the -5.5 @ $1.74 I can see with one of my 'books, because (using Pinnacle as a guide) the "fair odds" should be between $1.71 and $1.72, ATM.

---
Edits / Update (about 1550, Pac Time):
. See Bold and strike-through, above.

. Reason I went back to xxx, above: I based the xx on odds of $1.90,/ ~ -111, so odds of $1.95 pretty much automatically make the grade go back to xxx.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Dec 27, 2022
ksdjdj
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December 28th, 2022 at 1:30:48 PM permalink
x: 2.2 units on Arkansas -1.5 @ $1.82

Note: I thought this was a solid xxx one, but I "down-graded" it because of things like the "Smart Money betting the other team"....
ksdjdj
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December 28th, 2022 at 4:16:35 PM permalink
xxx: 3 units on Oregon Ducks -12.5 @ $1.90
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Dec 28, 2022
ksdjdj
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December 28th, 2022 at 6:06:17 PM permalink
double posted
ksdjdj
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December 28th, 2022 at 6:06:25 PM permalink
xxx: Wanted 2 units on Texas Tech $2.75 ML, but had to settle for:
1 unit +4.5 @ $1.90 and 1 unit @ $2.75 ML
SOOPOO
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December 28th, 2022 at 7:28:10 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

x: 2.2 units on Arkansas -1.5 @ $1.82

Note: I thought this was a solid xxx one, but I "down-graded" it because of things like the "Smart Money betting the other team"....
link to original post



Was a cake walk until it was a nail biter! I got VERY lucky! MGM Lion’s boost was Arkansas ML/ o 68.5. Looked like final was going to be 38-30. Onside kick. TD. Two point conversion. Arkansas wins in I think it was 5th overtime try.

I mentioned this earlier. They are going through long lists of players who have opted out of playing in these meaningless bowl games. I forget which game today, but announcer said twenty players weren’t playing who were playing in the regular season games. It may have been central Florida, who had a big loss via ‘transfer portal’.
ksdjdj
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December 28th, 2022 at 11:01:59 PM permalink
Draft Result Summary:

College FootballBet / OptionUnit Won / Lost
---------3 units on Oregon Ducks -12.5 @ $1.90 -3.000
---------2 units on Texas Tech $2.75 ML ^^^3.500
---------3 units on Ok St +4.5 @ $1.95-3.000
---------2.2 units on Arkansas -1.5 @ $1.821.804
---------*** Odds below are $1.90 (unless otherwise stated)-----
---------Cinci / Louisville: Over 39 (2 units)-2
---------UTSA / Troy: Troy +1.5 = xxx (2.8 units) 2.520
---------Florida / Oregon St: Florida +10 = xxx (3 units)-3.000
---------2.2 units on BYU @ $2.50 ML 3.300
---------2.8 units on E Michigan / SJS : Under 54.5 @ $1.86 -2.800
---------^^^/Adj.: Really had 1 unit @ $1.90 and 1 @ $2.75-0.85
---------Total For Period-3.526


NFL / "Live NFL Betting"Bet / Option
NFL2 units on the Jags' +2.5 @ $2.00 2.000
--------2.5 units on the under 34.5 @ $2.50 (Jags' Game)3.750
--------Bengals' -9.5 @ +255 for 1.5 units / x xx -1.500
--------3 units on the Eagles +4 @ 1.93 -3.000
--------4 units on the Steelers' ML @ $1.75 3.000
NFL(Cardinals) 3.2 units on them +7.5 @ $1.95 3.040
"Live NFL Betting"1 unit on the jets +6.5 @ +125-1.000
"Live NFL Betting"1 unit on the jets +7.5 @ about -111 -1.000
--------Total For Period5.290


^^^: When I had the bet, it was too close to game time, and I didn't have enough funds in the account I was using (so that is why I only managed to get the bet on like this).

Current NFL Results:

NCAAF:
Turnover (Total bet, so far): 253.755
Profit: 10.678
"Profit on Turnover": 4.20...%

NFL:
Turnover (Total bet, so far): 142.56
Profit: 25.27
"Profit on Turnover": 17.72...%

"Live NFL...":
Turnover (Total bet, so far): 8
Profit: -3.5
"Profit on Turnover": -43.75%

Combined:
Turnover (Total bet, so far): 404.315
Profit: 32.448
"Profit on Turnover": 8.02...%

-----
Other:
. I know I said that "I will update the NCAAF and Combined Results, when all College Bowl bets have been resolved.", but I thought if I wait too long, I leave myself with a fairly big chance of missing some bets(?)
. This is a draft result, and I went by most of the wins/loses by memory
. Not going to post "hidden adjustments" (at least for a while) since they were mainly for my benefit (at the time).
ksdjdj
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December 28th, 2022 at 11:21:19 PM permalink
Special Case: Purdue @ LSU

Reason it is "special": A 'book posted faulty lines, so I am on LSU -10.5 @ $1.87, and Purdue +14.5 @ $1.90.

----
Original / Planned / Official Graded Bet (so this is the figure that will be used for the results summary):
xxx: 3 units on Purdue +14.5 @ $1.90

Note: This is what I would have had, if not for the "faulty lines"

----
Actual Bets (converted to units):
4 units on Purdue +14.5 @ $1.90
2 units on LSU -10.5 @ $1.87

List of Potential Results:
LSU win by 15 pts (or more): -2.26
LSU lose, or win by 10 pts (or less): +1.6
LSU win by 11-14 pts: +5.34
ksdjdj
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December 28th, 2022 at 11:41:22 PM permalink

GamesPlayoff ----PointsPointsExpectedActualPredicted No.Actual No.----
PlayedBerth (A/B/W/F)TeamForAgainstWin %Win %of Winsof WinsTeam
15BPHI44530868.27%86.67%10.2413PHI
15ABUF42026372.53%80.00%10.8812BUF
15AKC43833264.13%80.00%9.6212KC
15AMIN37837351.16%80.00%7.6712MIN
15ASF37523073.37%73.33%11.0111SF
15BCIN39130662.62%73.33%9.3911CIN
15BDAL43430367.88%73.33%10.1811DAL
15BBAL32127258.77%66.67%8.8210BAL
15WLAC33234348.84%60.00%7.339LAC
15NYG31133946.14%56.67%6.928.5NYG
15MIA36537049.80%53.33%7.478MIA
15WSH28531345.77%50.00%6.877.5WSH
15TB26630643.46%46.67%6.527TB
15JAX35333153.73%46.67%8.067JAX
15NE31829154.95%46.67%8.247NE
15SEA36537948.58%46.67%7.297SEA
15DET39240149.34%46.67%7.407DET
15NYJ28428250.84%46.67%7.637NYJ
15GB31333447.21%46.67%7.087GB
15TEN26931243.05%46.67%6.467TEN
15PIT26431941.04%46.67%6.167PIT
15CAR31333746.76%40.00%7.016CAR
15LV34835050.19%40.00%7.536LV
15NO30332546.95%40.00%7.046NO
15FCLE32334347.45%33.33%7.126CLE
15FLAR28133441.85%33.33%6.285LAR
15FATL31535045.18%33.33%6.785ATL
15FIND24835732.87%30.00%4.934.5IND
15FDEN23230437.16%26.67%5.574DEN
15FARI30839138.66%26.67%5.804ARI
15FCHI30339337.64%20.00%5.653CHI
15FHOU25435833.81%16.67%5.072.5HOU

Note 1 : A = " Division Winner ", B = "Made it to a Playoff Berth" , W = "Wild Card Spot", and F = "Failed to make the Playoffs"

Note 2(a): The figures in the "Expected Win % column" have been adjusted so that the sum of the whole column is 1600%.
Note 2(b): Because of this, the "Predicted No. of Wins" will be slightly higher than it should be ( at least for this week).




Games----PointsPointsExpectedActualPredicted No.Actual No.----
PlayedTeamForAgainstWin %Win %of Winsof WinsTeam
13PHI38624871.38%92.31%9.2812PHI
13BUF35322172.45%76.92%9.4210BUF
13KC38429862.94%76.92%8.1810KC
13MIN31231350.26%76.92%6.5310MIN
13DAL36022971.79%76.92%9.3310DAL
13SF31719772.75%69.23%9.469SF
13BAL30125059.68%69.23%7.769BAL
13CIN33526562.03%69.23%8.069CIN
13MIA31631251.07%61.54%6.648MIA
13WSH25325649.83%57.69%6.487.5WSH
13NYG26730044.57%57.69%5.797.5NYG
13TEN24127643.63%53.85%5.677TEN
13LAC29532645.40%53.85%5.907LAC
13NYJ26424354.59%53.85%7.107NYJ
13SEA34233451.62%53.85%6.717SEA
13NE27623957.63%53.85%7.497NE
13TB22425444.12%46.15%5.746TB
13DET34934750.71%46.15%6.596DET
13GB26330243.49%38.46%5.655GB
13JAX29429450.42%38.46%6.555JAX
13LV30831349.61%38.46%6.455LV
13CAR26029044.94%38.46%5.845CAR
13ATL28831246.40%38.46%6.035ATL
13CLE30032346.70%38.46%6.075CLE
13PIT22729337.83%38.46%4.925PIT
13IND20929833.25%34.62%4.324.5IND
13ARI27734839.11%30.77%5.084ARI
13NO26529744.70%30.77%5.814NO
13LAR21829635.46%30.77%4.614LAR
13DEN19423840.26%23.08%5.233DEN
13CHI27033340.00%23.08%5.203CHI
13HOU21131431.37%11.54%4.081.5HOU


Important: I haven't adjusted these results to any "strength of schedule" yet, so it is just the "raw data".

Note 1: If any figure in the "Actual No. of Wins" ends in 0.5, then that just means that they had an "odd number of tied games" (all of those have teams have only tied once, so far this season).

Note 2: I am just using the info on the standings page on ESPN (feel free to check for errors, if you like).

----
How to use the above table to work out how to get a "ball-park estimated spread" for a game,
1) Find two teams that are playing each other this week
2) Go to the column "Expected win %" and find the figure for each team.
3) Multiply the above figures by 16.
4) Subtract the bigger figure from the smaller figure.
5a) Multiply that figure by 2 (that will be the 'dogs' "estimated spread")
5b) To work out the "estimated spread" for the favorite, just put a "- " in front of the figure.
6) Optional: Adjust for any home field advantage (I usually set this between 0 and 1 , but you can use any figure you think is a good estimate).

Important 1: This method is based on the "old" 16 game regular season, so that is why step 3 is to "Multiply ... by 16".

Important 2 (but obvious): The team with the bigger "Expected win %" will always be the favorite (before making any adjustments, at least).

Important 3: This will just get you a "ball park" estimate, as it doesn't take into account things like "strength of schedule", "key injuries", "eliminated teams, tanking for draft picks^^^ ",and any other factors you think will need to make an adjustment for.

^^^: Any teams that have been eliminated from the playoffs may be subject to this. Though I personally don't believe in it strongly enough to account for it in my own estimates (I find this a very hard area to account for, so if you do use this, then it is just another adjustment you have to make to the "ball-park estimate").

Hypothetical Example using the above method ("Strongest Team" vs "Weakest Team"):

1) Pretend SF is playing HOU this week, whether they are or aren't (I haven't checked)
2) SF = 72.75%, and HOU = 31.37%, "Expected win %"
3) SF = 11.64, and HOU = 5.02
4) 11.64 - 5.02 = 6.62.
5a) 6.62 x 2 = 13.24 = +13.24
5b) -13.24
6) I will use 0 for this game, since it is just a "hypothetical game".

Therefore, the "ball-park estimate" for SF should have them as a 13 to 13.5 point favorite when playing against HOU, (using the above figures).
ksdjdj
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December 29th, 2022 at 12:13:50 PM permalink
xxx: 3 units on Oklahoma +10.5 @ $1.90

"For Fun " / "Interest" Bet: $100 Washington $2.25 ML

Reminder: I won't be counting the Washington bet, as part of the "official results".
ksdjdj
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December 29th, 2022 at 4:24:19 PM permalink
Oklahoma are very lucky to be leading at half time (score 17-11) as I have the expected score*** of 10-18 to Fl State (based on the current total of 28).

***: Based on total yards and average or net yards.

----
Comment(s):
. Not watching the game, but I am following on ESPN Gamecast.
. I don't think there have been any lost fumbles or interceptions, but Fl State have turned the ball over on downs (twice? , so far).
. If I was at the "betting shop", I would have been tempted to take Fl State @ the $1.8 ML (just going by the current score, and the 1st half "total yards and average yards" figures).
ksdjdj
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December 29th, 2022 at 11:05:09 PM permalink
xxx: wanted 3 units on Pittsburgh Panthers +8 @ $1.89, but instead I got the following:
1.5 units +8 @ $1.89
1.3 units +7.5 @ $1.95
0.1 units ML @ $3.50

-----
Extra:
. It looks' like I can't get on for as much as I want to now with one 'book, so I have to spread the bets around (even if it means taking a "slightly worse price / value", sometimes).
. I was setting up a relatives computer today, so I couldn't get to the "betting shop", even if I wanted to bet live in the Fl State game.

. For fun bets:
. $250 on NC State +1.5 @ $1.80
. $300 on Michigan Wolverines^^^ -5.5 @ $1.64

^^^: I was a little bit surprised that I couldn't find any value to have a "graded bet" on TCU.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Dec 29, 2022
SOOPOO
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December 30th, 2022 at 6:02:10 AM permalink
My ‘for fun’ bets range from $1 to $10. Usually $5. I’ve bet $1 to win a penny recently on a few soccer games with a team leading by 2 goals in the second half or 3 goals in the first half. I think that’s a nickel so far for me! Yesterday there was a French soccer game that was 2-0 in second half that was only -680 to win. $7 won me a buck and change!

Good hit for you on the Cowboys winning by 14! I avoided the pointspread and just included ML bets that n my parlays. If I’m getting a bonus for each extra leg.
ksdjdj
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December 30th, 2022 at 12:03:01 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

My ‘for fun’ bets range from $1 to $10. Usually $5. I’ve bet $1 to win a penny recently on a few soccer games with a team leading by 2 goals in the second half or 3 goals in the first half. I think that’s a nickel so far for me! Yesterday there was a French soccer game that was 2-0 in second half that was only -680 to win. $7 won me a buck and change!

Good hit for you on the Cowboys winning by 14! I avoided the pointspread and just included ML bets that n my parlays. If I’m getting a bonus for each extra leg.
link to original post


More important that I am having a winning season, but too bad I didn't post the bet here*** (so that I can add it to my graded results).

***: When I first had the bet, I mainly thought it was a "bad line, that should move in my favor", and I also had the 'Boys ~ 55% chance of beating it (so not quite x grade).

----
"For Fun Bet" / Reminder:

Whenever I post a "$ amount for my bet(s)" it is usually not the bet that I actually had (the "$ part" only). But, the "real bet" range is usually somewhere between 50% to 150% of the figure that I post.
ksdjdj
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December 31st, 2022 at 2:45:44 AM permalink
The online 'books pretty much "don't want to touch my College Football business anymore", but I managed to get the following:

Wanted 2.5 units on Kentucky +3.5 @ $1.70 (so ~ x)
Got 1.8 units on Kentucky +3.5 @ $1.70, and
0.8 units on Kentucky +3.5 @ $1.50 (First Half)

Wanted 1.5 units on Ohio State @ $3.00 ML (so ~xx)
Got ~0.63 units on at the above ML,
~0.57 units on Ohio State +3.5 @ $1.88 (First Half), and
0.85 units on Ohio State +6.5 @ $1.83

3 units on Michigan @ $1.31 ML (~x)
Note: This was the only one that I got exactly what I wanted, in this series of bets.

-----
Extra:

I will let you know if they still let me on for what I want on the NFL in less than 24 hours (if I can find something to bet on).
DRich
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December 31st, 2022 at 6:26:25 AM permalink
I hope everyone is ready for the exciting Kentucky vs Iowa game. You know it will be exciting with a total of 31. I am currently wearing my Iowa Hawkeye shirt and am somewhat embarrassed by it. What a horrible offense.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
ksdjdj
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December 31st, 2022 at 11:31:59 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

I hope everyone is ready for the exciting Kentucky vs Iowa game. You know it will be exciting with a total of 31. I am currently wearing my Iowa Hawkeye shirt and am somewhat embarrassed by it. What a horrible offense.
link to original post


Only just woke up. 3 total TDs (2 pick 6's for Iowa) to nothing, ATM.
I know the game isn't over yet, but I should have bet on the under 31, lol.

-----
College Bet Updates:
, After looking at some indicators ("smart money" etc) I have upgraded Ohio State to xxx, so I had another 0.6 units @ $2.95 ML.

, This will be an adjustment, as it was a "limit test" : I had another ~$6k on Michigan @ $1.30 ML.
Note 1a): I plan to dump most to all of this bet, If I get a favorable scenario in live betting markets I probably won't be able to, as the "betting shop" doesn't open until 10 am (Australia time).
Note 1b): This game starts about 7 am, where I live.
DRich
DRich
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December 31st, 2022 at 11:50:25 AM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj


Only just woke up. 3 total TDs (2 pick 6's for Iowa) to nothing, ATM.



I am impressed that they got an offensive touchdown. Kentucky is leading in every category besides the score.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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December 31st, 2022 at 1:28:52 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: ksdjdj


Only just woke up. 3 total TDs (2 pick 6's for Iowa) to nothing, ATM.



I am impressed that they got an offensive touchdown. Kentucky is leading in every category besides the score.
link to original post



I think transfer portal opt outs NIL deals NFL prep must have hit Kentucky hard. I think their quarterback was in philosophy class until someone had to grab him and ask him if he’d like to play football. It is amazing they put that garbage on TV. Think about what a real game that would have been if it was a week 1 game in September!

Michigan drove the ball down the field. 4th and goal from the two. Expect smash mouth run. But Harbaugh has no play called. Wastes a timeout. Then calls some flip reverse hoping the wide receiver will throw for the TD. Ummmm…. No! He wasn’t even smart enough to throw it away, rather takes a sack at 10 yard line. Dumb call. Dumb execution.

I have lots of $$$ on Michigan ML with lots of money on TCU +7.5. Pick 6 for TCU.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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December 31st, 2022 at 2:16:13 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: DRich

Quote: ksdjdj


Only just woke up. 3 total TDs (2 pick 6's for Iowa) to nothing, ATM.



I am impressed that they got an offensive touchdown. Kentucky is leading in every category besides the score.
link to original post



I think transfer portal opt outs NIL deals NFL prep must have hit Kentucky hard. I think their quarterback was in philosophy class until someone had to grab him and ask him if he’d like to play football. It is amazing they put that garbage on TV. Think about what a real game that would have been if it was a week 1 game in September!

Michigan drove the ball down the field. 4th and goal from the two. Expect smash mouth run. But Harbaugh has no play called. Wastes a timeout. Then calls some flip reverse hoping the wide receiver will throw for the TD. Ummmm…. No! He wasn’t even smart enough to throw it away, rather takes a sack at 10 yard line. Dumb call. Dumb execution.

I have lots of $$$ on Michigan ML with lots of money on TCU +7.5. Pick 6 for TCU.
link to original post


Michigan are "winning" nearly everywhere in the stats so far, except the most "important areas" (turnovers and scoring).

Note: Started writing this 9:20 to go in the 1st half.
DRich
DRich
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December 31st, 2022 at 2:22:14 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO


I think transfer portal opt outs NIL deals NFL prep must have hit Kentucky hard. I think their quarterback was in philosophy class until someone had to grab him and ask him if he’d like to play football. It is amazing they put that garbage on TV. Think about what a real game that would have been if it was a week 1 game in September!



I know, and the Iowa QB had not played at all since High School.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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December 31st, 2022 at 3:27:27 PM permalink
If Michigan stop them on this play, they can maybe try for 1 more FG, before they are in "TDs or bust" territory.

----
Update:
Interception: come on the "road to the come-back".

-----
Update 2:
I am not a fan of "trick-plays" early in a game, but so glad the "flea-flicker" worked for them over half-way through the 3rd Q.

----
Update 3 (score 41-38 to TCU):
Who knows, may become a 48-48 game and then decided in OT(?)
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Dec 31, 2022
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