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ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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January 15th, 2023 at 3:34:24 PM permalink
xxx: $2k on the Ravens' ML @ ~$4.51^^^, after the commission*** .

^^^: I think the fair odds should be between $3.80 & $4.00

***: Took $4.70 on betfair, so may hedge it back, if I can get ~$2.10 on the Bengals' (if the Raven's are up ~14, early).
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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January 15th, 2023 at 7:39:33 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

xxx: $2k on the Ravens' ML @ ~$4.51^^^ ... (snip)
link to original post


. Had another $500 on the Raven's before the game @ $4.80
. Just before that Ravens' t/o, I had $2,500 on the Bengals' @ ~$2.10, so I can either win $247### (Bengals') or $6,460### (Ravens').

###: After the betfair commission.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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January 16th, 2023 at 1:54:57 AM permalink
xxx: $8k ^^^ on the Cowboys' ML @ ~$1.71 ***

^^^: Plan to reduce my liability to ~$6k if I get a favorable situation (eg Cowboys' up by 6 early in the first half, is just one scenario).

***: After the betfair comission.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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January 16th, 2023 at 6:35:31 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

xxx: $8k ^^^ on the Cowboys' ML @ ~$1.71 ***

^^^: Plan to reduce my liability to ~$6k ... (snip)
link to original post


Had 250 on the Bucs’ at $9, just after score was18-0

——-
Comment(s)
. One team missing 3 extra points in a row, when did that last happen (if ever)?
. You would think if the Cowboys’ score anymore TDs, then they go for 2 pt conversions (at least on the next one)?
. I was a little bit surprised that they didn’t go for 2 pts on at least one of the last two TDs

——
Update after 4th TD:
. Make that 4 missed extra pts in a row.

Sent from phone
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jan 16, 2023
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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January 16th, 2023 at 9:40:11 PM permalink
Draft Result:
NFL (graded) / live or non-graded (other)Bet / Option$ Won / Lost
Graded~$1,852 on the "49ers -9.5 x Under 44.5" @ +270 -$1,852
--------$5.5k on the 49ers -9.5 @ $1.95$5,225
--------Jags: $4k +2.5 @ $1.90$3,600
--------$5500 on the Giants' +3.5 @ $1.74 $4,070
--------$2k on the Ravens' ML @ ~$4.51###-$2,000
Graded$8k $6k on the Cowboys' ML @ ~$1.71 ^^^$4,275
Other$8k $2k on the Cowboys' ML @ ~$1.71 ^^^$1,438
--------250 on the Bucs’ at $9 (live) / to reduce my liability to ~$6k ^^^-$250
--------$2,500 on the Bengals' @ ~$2.10 (live)$2,747
--------$500 on the Raven's before the game @ $4.80 -$500
--------$900 on the " Bengals -5.5 and Under 44.5 " @ $3.30 $2,070
--------~$600 on the " Bills -10.5 and Under 44.5 " @ $4.15 -$600
--------Jags: $800 -5.5 @ $3.50-$800
OtherJags: $7.5k @ $2.2 ML $2.14, after betfair commission***$8,550
--------Total For Period$25,973

###: Only had them 54-55% chance ATS of +8 (which is why I went with a ML bet for this one).
^^^: All related, but the $6k amount is the "graded" part.
***: Made a "mistake in my favor" here, should have only bet an extra $3.5k (so very lucky that it won).

Current Results:

NCAAF:
Turnover (Total bet, so far): 272,205
Profit: 3,598
"Profit on Turnover": 1.32...%

NFL:
Turnover (Total bet, so far): 189,990
Profit: 26,777
"Profit on Turnover": 14.09...%

"Live and Other Bets...":
Turnover (Total bet, so far): 48,030
Profit: 14,674
"Profit on Turnover": 30.55...%

Combined (Graded only):
Turnover (Total bet, so far): 462,195
Profit: 30,375
"Profit on Turnover": 6.57...%

Combined (All):
Turnover (Total bet, so far): 510,225
Profit: 45,049
"Profit on Turnover": 8.82...%

Note: Rounded the figure down to the next whole dollar (the figure in the table was rounded up, though).
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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January 16th, 2023 at 9:57:45 PM permalink
$6.8k on the Bills' +1.5 @ $1.45
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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January 21st, 2023 at 12:43:10 PM permalink
Non-Graded bet^^^ (made earlier in the week): $10k Chiefs +1.5 @ $1.25

^^^ (Reasons for bet);
. Thought the line had a good chance to move in my favor.
. Probably would not have had the bet, if I did any work on a "raw figure" first.

xxx bet (made in the last hour): $5k Jags' +10 @ $1.93.


Comment(s):
. My raw "50/50" figure was around Jags' +3.0 to +4.0 (this is the figure I would use if I was going in "blind" / didn't know what the line was in the public market)
. The raw figure also didn't take into account that teams getting a "rest week" are always at an advantage, IMO (so the Chiefs' have that going for them).
. Adjusting for the public market (and attempting to adjust for the "Chiefs rest week") I think the Jags' should be +7.

----
Update, just after Mahomes injury (he is still playing, at the time of this update ):
. If they have to take Mahomes out for 3/4 of the game, then I have the Chiefs' about 35% chance to win against a "fair spread*** "

***: Against whatever you thought the "fair" pre-game spread was (less any current score differential###).

###: Differential was 0 (7-7) at the time of this update.

----
Update 2 (just after Mahomes went to the locker-room to get "checked out" ):
. Have my "live fair spread" for the Chiefs' @ -6.0 (with the score at 10-7 to the Chiefs).
. Probably not going to do anymore of these, whether Mahomes' comes back to play in this game, or not.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jan 21, 2023
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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Thanks for this post from:
ksdjdj
January 21st, 2023 at 4:57:21 PM permalink
Chiefs were lucky Mahomes got injured…. Henne drove them 98 yards for a TD, a feat Mahomes has NEVER been able to accomplish in the post season.

On a serious note, Mahomes on one leg is still a formidable foe. Just seemed like Chiefs OC was one step ahead of Jaguars DC entire game.
And Trevor Lawrence looked like a below average QB. Not abysmal, but not championship material either.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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January 21st, 2023 at 5:00:17 PM permalink
"Betfair Bet" : $15k on the Eagles' to win $4,275 (after the 5% commission).

. Plan to put a total of $1,500 back on the Giants' @ $10+ (one example, if the Giants' are down ~10 pts early, then I think I can get this price? or better?).

xxx bet: $5k Eagles' -7.5 @ $1.94

-----
Comment(s):
. Going by just the for and against, I had the Eagles' -5.5.
. Taking other factors' into consideration, I think they should be closer to -11.5^^^

^^^: Things like "smart money" is on the Eagles, "a persons' opinion that I trust to be better than my own" is on the Eagles, and an "extra week rest" for them, as well .
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jan 21, 2023
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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January 21st, 2023 at 5:46:17 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

(snip)
. Plan to put a total of $1,500 back on the Giants' @ $10+ (one example, if the Giants' are down ~10 pts early, then I think I can get this price? or better?).
(snip)
link to original post


Price point not looking good (compared to what I thought it should be, at 14-0 early) so won't bother having it.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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January 22nd, 2023 at 12:08:46 PM permalink
xxx (bet was made on betfair): $4k on the Bengals to win ~$9.4k***
$6.8k on the Bills' +1.5 @ $1.45 (repeat of an earlier bet, so that I can find the bet easier).
Betfair^^^: $11k to win ~ $25.6k***

***: After the betfair commission
^^^: Wanted to chop this bet out, but I stuffed up my plan to bet the Bills live###, and can't do it now (so just have to hope the Bengals' win).
###: Just after the Bengals' 2nd TD, I would have had between ~7k on the Bills' @ $2.66 to $2.68 (what it was on betffair, at the time of this update).
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jan 22, 2023
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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January 22nd, 2023 at 3:12:41 PM permalink
xxx bet: $4.5k to win $7.6k on the Cowboys' ***

***: The 49ers' are still the best team overall this year, IMO (but I had them about -2.5 for this matchup).

-----
Comment(s):
. Lucky the Bengals' won earlier.
. In this game, I thought that either the Cowboys' had a "good chance" of winning by 11+ or
the 49ers had a "good chance" of winning by 16+, so that is the main reason why I didn't back the Cowboys' @ +3.5.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jan 22, 2023
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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January 22nd, 2023 at 4:30:11 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

(snip)
. In this game, I thought that either the Cowboys' had a "good chance" of winning by 11+ or
the 49ers had a "good chance" of winning by 16+, so that is the main reason why I didn't back the Cowboys' @ +3.5.
link to original post


: ) , sorry, I meant Cowboys' ... by 9+ (I forgot that their kicker*** is "unlucky" at the moment).

***: 5 misses in a row (right?) but at least that one was blocked and not a "clean miss".
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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January 22nd, 2023 at 8:29:44 PM permalink
NFL (graded) / live or non-graded (other)Bet / Option$ Won / Lost
Gradedxxx bet ... $5k Jags' +10 @ $1.93 $4,650
--------xxx bet: $5k Eagles' -7.5 @ $1.94 $4,700
--------xxx (bet was made on betfair): $4k on the Bengals to win ~$9.4k $9,224***
Gradedxxx bet: $4.5k to win $7.6k on the Cowboys' -$4,500
OtherBetfair: $11k to win ~ $25.6k (on the Bengals')$25,366***
--------$6.8k on the Bills' +1.5 @ $1.45 -$6,800
--------"Betfair Bet" : $15k on the Eagles' to win $4,275 $4,275
Other$10k Chiefs +1.5 @ $1.25 $2,500
--------Total For Period$39,415

***: Only put the "round figures" up in previous posts (here are the correct figures, to the nearest dollar).

Current Results:

NCAAF:
Turnover (Total bet, so far): 272,205
Profit: 3,598
"Profit on Turnover": 1.32...%

NFL:
Turnover (Total bet, so far): 208,490
Profit: 40,851
"Profit on Turnover": 19.59...%

"Live and Other Bets...":
Turnover (Total bet, so far): 90,830
Profit: 40,015
"Profit on Turnover": 44.05...%

Combined (Graded only):
Turnover (Total bet, so far): 480,695
Profit: 44,449
"Profit on Turnover": 9.24...%

Combined (All):
Turnover (Total bet, so far): 571,525
Profit: 84,464
"Profit on Turnover": 14.77...%
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jan 22, 2023
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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January 22nd, 2023 at 9:02:14 PM permalink
Early bets for next week:

Solid xxx: To win $5k on the Bengals +1.5 @ $1.87
up to xxx^^^: $5.5k Eagles -2.5 @ $1.91

^^^: N Bosa questionable, with hamstring injury(?)

-----
Comment(s) / Extra:
. Winning over $90k this period, because not incl in an earlier post was another +$8,390 on bets not mentioned (both on the Eagles: $6k -5.5 and $5k -8).
. Lucky for me, because I thought they were not on, but when I looked at my account they were right there in the result history (?)
. Because my balance is about $180k now, below are the new estimated bet sizes for the grades (based on when the price is ~$1.90):
x: ~$4k, xx: ~$5k, and xxx: ~$6k
. I already started betting those "kinds of amounts" for the earlier Bengals' and Cowboys' games (after converting them to ML prices).
. Probably won't have any more on the Bengals', even though I like them (because I also have an $11.9k bet going that KC will not win the Super Bowl).
. Probably won't have any more on the Eagles', as it looks' like there is a "good chance" the line will change against me, also "to win $5k was the max I could get" with the "early market".
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jan 22, 2023
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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January 29th, 2023 at 1:58:17 PM permalink
Eagles' Game, live comments:
. Eagles' have an extra TD, because of a "missed incomplete pass" on the first drive.
. IMO when compared to Purdy, Johnson at QB turns whatever you thought was the "50/50" line into a "40/60" one (if he played from the start of the game, to the finish).
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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January 29th, 2023 at 5:22:04 PM permalink
Chiefs' Game, live comment(s):
. With the yards lost from sacks, sack differential, and Bengals' turnover (t/o), the Bengals' are lucky to be only down a TD***.
***: Disregarding the t/o , and just going by the Average Yards (YPP) and Total Yards, IMO the score should be about 6-13 (in other words, the current score).
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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January 29th, 2023 at 7:29:07 PM permalink
Super Bowl:
xxx: $500*** Eagles ML @ $2

***: I had an earlier bet on the Chiefs' "not winning the S B^^^ ", so that is why I only had $500 on the Eagles' (even though I would normally have ~$6k, when I think a team is "xxx", ATM).

^^^: $11,900 to win $3,325, early in the Playoffs'.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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January 29th, 2023 at 8:01:59 PM permalink
Draft Result:

...xxx: To win $5k on the Bengals +1.5 @ $1.87: Lost ~$5,748
...xxx: $5.5k Eagles -2.5 @ $1.91........................: Won $5,005
..........................................................Total for week: Lost $743


Current Results:

NCAAF:
Turnover (Total bet, so far): 272,205
Profit: 3,598
"Profit on Turnover": 1.32...%

NFL:
Turnover (Total bet, so far): 219,738
Profit: 40,108
"Profit on Turnover": 18.25...%

"Live and Other Bets...":
Turnover (Total bet, so far): 90,830
Profit: 40,015
"Profit on Turnover": 44.05...%

Combined (Graded only):
Turnover (Total bet, so far): 491,943
Profit: 43,706
"Profit on Turnover": 8.88...%

Combined (All):
Turnover (Total bet, so far): 582,773
Profit: 83,716
"Profit on Turnover": 14.36...%
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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February 11th, 2023 at 2:25:02 AM permalink
"Spec Bet": "Eagles win every quarter*** " $160 @ 50/1

***: My estimated chance for this is around 2.2%-2.4%
Note: With this kind of bet, I would be happy to "hedge" into the Chiefs' in the unlikely event that the Eagles' win each of the first 3 quarters (in other words I think the hedge would likely be +EV, too)
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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February 12th, 2023 at 6:11:41 PM permalink
Late HT comments:
. I thought the Chiefs should have been +7 @ HT
. This figure was based on a 100% healthy Mahomes.

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