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DRich
DRich
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ksdjdj
November 9th, 2022 at 4:19:28 AM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

The only good thing that happened today, was that I got $700 in bonus bets (so roughly the equivalent value to $500 in cash).
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From personal experience, never bet the Zips.
Order from chaos
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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Thanks for this post from:
ksdjdj
November 9th, 2022 at 4:39:42 AM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

The only good thing that happened today, was that I got $700 in bonus bets (so roughly the equivalent value to $500 in cash).
link to original post



I literally was 0-15 last night! Most were two leg parlays. Quite remarkable. Back to the drawing board.
DRich
DRich
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
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November 9th, 2022 at 11:29:42 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: ksdjdj

The only good thing that happened today, was that I got $700 in bonus bets (so roughly the equivalent value to $500 in cash).
link to original post



I literally was 0-15 last night! Most were two leg parlays. Quite remarkable. Back to the drawing board.
link to original post



You really need to start selling those picks.
Order from chaos
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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November 9th, 2022 at 1:24:56 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: ksdjdj

The only good thing that happened today, was that I got $700 in bonus bets (so roughly the equivalent value to $500 in cash).
link to original post



I literally was 0-15 last night! Most were two leg parlays. Quite remarkable. Back to the drawing board.
link to original post



You really need to start selling those picks.
link to original post



Nahhhh….. I really don’t think my picks are better or worse than throwing a dart blindly at a board with team names. I had been on a pretty good money winning streak. But yesterday was just silly. My wins tend to be much bigger than my
Losses. It’s the nature of picking parlays. And other long shots.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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November 9th, 2022 at 1:29:50 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: ksdjdj

The only good thing that happened today, was that I got $700 in bonus bets (so roughly the equivalent value to $500 in cash).
link to original post



From personal experience, never bet the Zips.
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To add insult to injury, I think the Zips beat the "full - game" spread by 0.5 of a point (34-28).
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Nov 9, 2022
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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November 9th, 2022 at 3:21:39 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

IMO, these are about 53%-54% chance at their current line, for the following NFL teams, this week:

Packers (+5.5)
Rams (-3)
Texans (+6.5)
Bucs' (-2.5) ***
(snip)
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Hold off betting on the Rams', as Stafford is in "Concussion Protocol".

Note: Lucky for me I held off, because I was about to back the Rams @ -1.5 (2.5 or so hours ago, was when I first learnt this).

My ML odds for the Rams are as follows:

Stafford In: ~$1.62 (-160)
Stafford Out: ~$2.20 (+120)

----
Update (about 1540, Pac Time):
Other game not previously mentioned (for this week):

For the Bills', I have the following ML:

Allen In: ~$1.54 (-186)
Allen Out: ~$2.15 (+115)
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Nov 9, 2022
DRich
DRich
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
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Thanks for this post from:
ksdjdj
November 9th, 2022 at 4:18:21 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

Quote: DRich

Quote: ksdjdj

The only good thing that happened today, was that I got $700 in bonus bets (so roughly the equivalent value to $500 in cash).
link to original post



From personal experience, never bet the Zips.
link to original post


To add insult to injury, I think the Zips beat the "full - game" spread by 0.5 of a point (34-28).
link to original post



Of course the Zips will win when you do not bet on them.
Order from chaos
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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November 9th, 2022 at 5:29:27 PM permalink
Here are my "x x x" Grades (this week):
NCAAF:.
@ USC: Under 66
@ UNLV: Under 60.5 (still an " x x x". if you can get under 60)
@ Illinois: Over 44.5
@ Middle Tennessee: Under 67.5 (still an " x x x", if you can get under 66.5).

NFL:
Packers @ +5.0
Panthers' @ +3.0 (odds -115 or better)
Titans game: Under 37.5 (added about 1750, Pac Time).


Note 1: Not as many bets this week, as I have been "quartered^^^ " (at least temporarily).

^^^: I can only get on at the "betting shop", as all 3 of my online accounts have been closed (I don't wish to say what it is about publicly, at this time).

Note 2: Because it takes about 20+ hours of "work / research / etc" per week, I probably won't be posting as many "potential bets " publicly either (at least until my accounts have been re-opened).

Quote: ksdjdj

Quote: ksdjdj

(snip)
link to original post


(snip)
For the Bills', I have the following ML:

Allen In: ~$1.54 (-186)
Allen Out: ~$2.15 (+115)
link to original post



Important: This figure for "Allen In" is based on a "completely healthy Allen", so if he is playing this week, then IMO the fair odds will be somewhere between -186 and +115.

"Betting Plan": I only plan to bet if Allen is out (since I am more confident in my "out estimate"). So if the ML gets to +140*** for the Bills, or +110*** for the Vikings, then I will bet on whichever team meets those conditions (if any).

***: These odds are the minimum for "x x x" grade, IMO.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Nov 9, 2022
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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November 10th, 2022 at 3:44:40 PM permalink
Panthers' game:
I usually really like the under, when I see a weather forecast similar to the one for the NFL game today.
But, IMO it is only about an "x " grade one @ 41.5 (I would need it to get to 43 before I would consider having a bet on the under).

----
Update (~1712, Pac Time);
Managed to get one of my online accounts "unfrozen", so I had:

2.6 units on the Panthers' @ +2.5 (odds +106)
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Nov 10, 2022
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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November 11th, 2022 at 11:22:44 AM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

Here are my "x x x" Grades (this week):
NCAAF:.
@ USC: Under 66
@ UNLV: Under 60.5 (still an " x x x". if you can get under 60)

NFL:
Packers @ +5.0
(snip)
link to original post


Both Under for 2.7 units:
@ USC: Under 66.5 ($1.90)
@ UNLV: Under 61.5 ($1.92)

----
Update (~1135, Pac Time):
2.0 units on the Packers @ $2.75 ML

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