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ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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October 26th, 2022 at 2:37:57 PM permalink
I decided to move this from the " sports-betting-chatter- thread " (I had been thinking about it for a while).

Important: This thread will only show my "wins/loses" from "graded / rated bets" in the tables below (these types of bets being, " ML " , ATS", and / or "Totals " (O/U) ).

Note: All figures are in units

Past Results (as stated above, from the "Graded / Rated" bets only, in this thread):

NCAAF:
Turnover (Total bet, so far): 120.5
Profit: 46.18
"Profit on Turnover" (%): 38.32...%

NFL:
Turnover (Total bet, so far): 26.25
Profit: -1.06
"Profit on Turnover" (%): -4.03...%

Combined:
Turnover (Total bet, so far): 146.75
Profit: 45.12
"Profit on Turnover" (%): 30.74...%

Edit (about 1700, Pac Time):
Current "bank-roll" (in units): ~ 90 (before the bets I had below)

----
Note 1(a): Grade "x", "x x" and "x x x", are equal to an estimated EV of 8%-10%, 10%-12%, and 12%+ (respectively).
Note 1(b): I am now betting a bit differently, so assume that x = 1.5 units, x x = 2.2 units, and x x x = 3 units (if a unit amount is not stated in the "Grade/Rating" part of the bet)
Note 2: Some of these may be repeats of bets mentioned earlier (in another thread).
Note 3: Games/lines etc, were just copied and pasted from the 'book I bet with (to make it easier/quicker for me).
Note 4: When written the "vs way", the home team is usually listed first.

NCAAF:
GameBet / OptionGrade / Rating
Arizona State Sun Devils @ Colorado Buffaloes Arizona State @ $1.90 (-13) x x x / 1.8 units
Arizona State Sun Devils @ Colorado Buffaloes Arizona State @ $1.88 (-12.5) 0.1 units
Arizona State Sun Devils @ Colorado Buffaloes Arizona State @ $1.91 (-13) 1.1 units
Southern Miss Golden Eagles vs Louisiana-Lafayette Southern Miss Golden Eagles @ $1.85 (+1.5)x x
Utah Utes @ Washington State CougarsWashington State Cougars @ $1.91 (+7.5)x
Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ Syracuse OrangeNotre Dame Fighting Irish @ $1.89 (+3.0)x
Temple Owls @ NavyTemple Owls @ $1.97 (+13.5 )x x
Baylor Bears @ Texas Tech Red RaidersTexas Tech Red Raiders @ $1.89 (-2.5 )x x / 1 unit
Baylor Bears @ Texas Tech Red RaidersTexas Tech Red Raiders @ $1.88 (-2.5 ) 1.2 units
Texas A&M Aggies vs Mississippi Rebels Texas A&M Aggies @ $1.94 (+2.5) x x x / 0.1 units
Texas A&M Aggies vs Mississippi Rebels Texas A&M Aggies @ $2.05 (+1.5) 2.8 units
Missouri Tigers @ South Carolina Gamecocks Missouri Tigers @ $2.61 (ML)x ^^^ / 1.25 units
Illinois Fighting Illini @ Nebraska Cornhuskers Nebraska Cornhuskers @ $1.89 (+7.5) x x x


^^^: When I originally had the bet I estimated it to be an "x grade". But, as I did more work / research etc , I would now have "upgraded it" to an " x x grade" at that price (since the odds shifted against me, before I could have anymore on, it will officially still be an "x grade" bet).

----------
NFL:
GameBet / OptionGrade / Rating
New York Giants @ Seattle Seahawks Seattle Seahawks @ $1.85 (-2.5) x / 1.56 units
Green Bay Packers @ Buffalo Bills Green Bay Packers @ $1.91 (+10.5) x
Miami Dolphins @ Detroit LionsDetroit Lions @ $1.82 (+3.5) x x x / 1.6 units
Miami Dolphins @ Detroit LionsDetroit Lions @ $1.45 (+7.5) 2 units
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Baltimore Ravens Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ $2.05 (ML)x x / 2.1 units
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Philadelphia EaglesPittsburgh Steelers @ $1.91 (+10.5 )x
Minnesota Vikings vs Arizona Cardinals Arizona Cardinals $2.64 (ML)x x meant x x x### / 1.5 units
Denver Broncos @ Jacksonville Jaguars Denver Broncos @ $1.91 (+2.5) x


Update (~2050, Pac Time):
###: It "wasn't a lie" when I thought this was a "x x x bet",
Quote: ksdjdj


(snip)
I had other picks, but below are the "best ones that I could find this week" (all of them are "x x x" grade bets).
(snip)

Cardinals @ (+3.5) ^^^

^^^: Not on yet, because I think there is a good chance for the line to shift out (in other words I think the Cards' may get to +4.0 or more?).
(snip)
link to original post

text
.
But, I made an error in the above table and called it an "x x bet", because I went by my "actual bet(s)", rather than "what I wanted to get on in total" (since I was also hoping that the line would get to +4.0),
The odds have changed against me ATM, so I likely won't be getting the full amount that I wanted.

--------
Comments:
I think the scores for the Bucs' and the Broncos' recently have been "unflattering" ( the "Game Result(s)", "For and against" type ones). But, going by other "metrics" I think they have also been a bit "unfortunate" ("Yards in each game, compared to the opponent" and "1st downs made...", are just some examples of these).

Edit (1710, Pac Time):
I also think the 49ers and Chargers have been a bit "unfortunate", as well (so there could be value backing the 49ers this week, but I haven't looked closely at that game yet).

——-
Edit / update (by phone )
Reminder: if you wish to “copy my bets”, then I am currently having;
~ 1/60 of my “total funds available for betting” on “x bets”
~ 1/40 ... on “ x x bets”
~ 1/30 ... on “x x x bets “

Note: These are my “standard amounts “ when betting ATS / on “50/50” markets.

Important: I would recommend that you never bet more than 5% of your “total funds...” on any one bet .
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Oct 26, 2022
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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October 27th, 2022 at 12:59:12 PM permalink
I was looking at some totals and found a couple that I thought were "value":

Baltimore Ravens @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Under 46.5 Points @ $1.92 ( "x grade").

Wyoming Cowboys @ Hawaii Rainbow Warriors: Under 50.5 @ $1.91 (" x x x grade" / 1 unit)
Wyoming Cowboys @ Hawaii Rainbow Warriors: Under 50.5 @ $1.90 (" x x x grade" / 2 units)
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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ksdjdj
October 27th, 2022 at 1:57:24 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

I was looking at some totals and found a couple that I thought were "value":

Baltimore Ravens @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Under 46.5 Points @ $1.92 ( "x grade").

Wyoming Cowboys @ Hawaii Rainbow Warriors: Under 50.5 @ $1.91 (" x x x grade" / 1 unit)
Wyoming Cowboys @ Hawaii Rainbow Warriors: Under 50.5 @ $1.90 (" x x x grade" / 2 units)
link to original post



I got under 51 at -110. Go DEFENSE!
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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October 30th, 2022 at 12:35:48 AM permalink
Draft of my College Football Results (this week):

Note 1: The information under in the "Closing Line" column was just the "average closing Spread / ML / or total", IMO.
Note 2: Est. = Estimated or Estimate

GameBet / OptionClosing LineGrade / RatingUnit Won / Lost
Arizona State Sun Devils @ Colorado Buffaloes Arizona State @ $1.90 (-13) -13x x x
Arizona State Sun Devils @ Colorado Buffaloes Arizona State @ $1.88 (-12.5)
Arizona State Sun Devils @ Colorado Buffaloes Arizona State @ $1.91 (-13) -3
Southern Miss Golden Eagles vs Louisiana-Lafayette Southern Miss Golden Eagles @ $1.85 (+1.5 )+2.5x x1.87
Utah Utes @ Washington State CougarsWashington State Cougars @ $1.91 (+7.5)+7.25 (Est.)x1.37
Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ Syracuse OrangeNotre Dame Fighting Irish @ $1.89 (+3.0)-1x1.34
Temple Owls @ NavyTemple Owls @ $1.97 (+13.5 )+14.5x x2.13
Baylor Bears @ Texas Tech Red RaidersTexas Tech Red Raiders @ $1.89 (-2.5 )-1.5x x0
Baylor Bears @ Texas Tech Red RaidersTexas Tech Red Raiders @ $1.88 (-2.5 )-2.2
Texas A&M Aggies vs Mississippi Rebels Texas A&M Aggies @ $1.94 (+2.5) +3x x x0
Texas A&M Aggies vs Mississippi Rebels Texas A&M Aggies @ $2.05 (+1.5) -2.9
Missouri Tigers @ South Carolina Gamecocks Missouri Tigers @ $2.61 (ML)$2.36 to $2.50x x 2.01
Illinois Fighting Illini @ Nebraska Cornhuskers Nebraska Cornhuskers @ $1.89 (+7.5) +7.5x x x-3
Wyoming Cowboys @ Hawaii Rainbow Warriors: Under 50.5 @ $1.91 x x x0.91
Wyoming Cowboys @ Hawaii Rainbow Warriors: Under 50.5 @ $1.90 51 (Est.)1.8
Total for week:0.326


-----
Comments:
I had a small win this week on my college football bets.
Also, I decided to add a "Closing Line" column because I think that is a better metric to go by IMO (for long-term profitability),

Value compared to the "Closing Line":
I got "positive (+) value" on:
1. Notre Dame +3 vs -1
2. Washington State Cougars +7.5 vs +7.25 (Est.)
3. Missouri Tigers $2.61 (ML) vs $2.50

I got "negative (-) value" on:
1. Southern Miss Golden Eagles +1.5 vs +2.5
2. Temple Owls +13.5 vs +14.5
3. Texas Tech Red Raiders -2.5 vs -1.5
4. Texas A&M Aggies +2.5, +3.0 ^^^
5. Wyoming @ Hawaii, Under 50.5 vs 51 (Est.)

^^^: If you managed to get +3.0, then the bet would have resulted in a push.

I got neither "+/- value" on:
1. Arizona State -13
2. Nebraska Cornhuskers +7.5

----
I will double check that the results are correct later (remember, this is a draft)
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Oct 30, 2022
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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October 30th, 2022 at 3:43:40 PM permalink
Had some more bets on the NFL:

1): Packers upgraded to an " x x x " grade, so I had another 1.5 units @ $1.90 (+10.5)

2: Had two bets on the Browns (also "x x x" grade):
a) Cleveland 2.2 units @ $1.85 (+3.5)
b) Cleveland 1.1 units @ $1.48 (+7.5)
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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November 1st, 2022 at 4:01:57 AM permalink
Like the Seahawks' as a "x x x" one this week.

I had 0.8 units @ $1.61 (+3.5) and
2.4 units @ $1.91 (+1.5).

----
Comments:
I wanted 3.5 to 3.6 units on at the alternative line of +3.5, but they cut me to the amount stated above.

Also, I will put up the previous weeks' NFL results and current overall results, tomorrow (Australia Time),
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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Thanks for this post from:
ksdjdj
November 1st, 2022 at 4:52:16 AM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

Had some more bets on the NFL:

1): Packers upgraded to an " x x x " grade, so I had another 1.5 units @ $1.90 (+10.5)

2: Had two bets on the Browns (also "x x x" grade):
a) Cleveland 2.2 units @ $1.85 (+3.5)
b) Cleveland 1.1 units @ $1.48 (+7.5)
link to original post



I took your advice on both of these winners. It was actually painful pushing the button on GB + 10.5! Cleveland + 3.5 was easy. Without Chase Cincy is below average. I had Cleveland ML as my fourth team in a parlay which hit! I lost the vast majority of bets…. but hitting a few long shots made it a profitable weekend.

Last night FanDuel gave +150 on Chubb over 59.5 yards rushing, Antetokuonpo over 29.5 points. I love FanDuels offers….I’m limited to $50 bet on these….
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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November 1st, 2022 at 1:29:26 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

Draft of my College Football Results (this week):
(snip)


(snip)
Total for week:0.326

(snip)
link to original post


NFL Results (previous week):
GameBet / OptionClosing LineGrade / Units^^^ Unit Won / Lost
New York Giants @ Seattle Seahawks Seattle Seahawks @ $1.85 (-2.5) -3x / 1.56 1.326
Green Bay Packers @ Buffalo Bills Green Bay Packers @ $1.90 (+10.5) 1.51.350
Green Bay Packers @ Buffalo Bills Green Bay Packers @ $1.91 (+10.5) +10.5x x x / 1.51.365
Miami Dolphins @ Detroit LionsDetroit Lions @ $1.82 (+3.5) +3.5x x x / 1.6 -1.600
Miami Dolphins @ Detroit LionsDetroit Lions @ $1.45 (+7.5) 20.900
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Baltimore Ravens Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ $2.05 (ML)-2***x x-2.100
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Baltimore Ravens Under 46.546.5x-1.500
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Philadelphia EaglesPittsburgh Steelers @ $1.91 (+10.5 )+11.5x-1.500
Minnesota Vikings vs Arizona Cardinals Arizona Cardinals $2.64 (ML)+4 ***x x x / 1.5 -1.500
Denver Broncos @ Jacksonville Jaguars Denver Broncos @ $1.91 (+2.5) +1x1.365
Cleveland v CincinnatiCleveland @ $1.85 (+3.5)+3x x x / 2.2 1.870
Cleveland v CincinnatiCleveland @ $1.48 (+7.5)1.10.528
Total for week:0.504

***: I know these were ML bets, but I haven't found a closing line written like that (yet),

^^^: Instead of writing units next to each number, assume that any number in the column is in units from now on.

Note: All figures below are also in units (unless stated otherwise).

Current Results:

NCAAF:
Turnover (Total bet, so far): 143.25
Profit: 46.506
"Profit on Turnover": 32.46...%

NFL:
Turnover (Total bet, so far): 45.81
Profit: -0.556
"Profit on Turnover": -1.21...%

Combined:
Turnover (Total bet, so far): 189.06
Profit: 45.95
"Profit on Turnover": 24.30...%
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Nov 1, 2022
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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November 1st, 2022 at 2:19:58 PM permalink
NCAAF (Week 10):
GameBet / OptionClosing LineGrade / Units
Kent State Golden Flashes vs Ball State Cardinals Under 62.5 @ $1.88 NA (at this time)x x x / 3
Buffalo Bulls @ Ohio Bobcats Ohio Bobcats @ $1.90 (+2.5) NA (at this time)x x x / 3


Note 1: Including the 2 above, there are up to 13 potential "x x x grade" bets, ATM.
Note 2: I don't want to do any "intermediate/advanced betting strategies, at this time, but I will explain what the strategies are below (in case, I end up recommending them later).

-----
"Normal betting strategy":
I normally like to bet ~1/30 of my current "bank-roll" on "x x x grade" bets.
But since there are 13 of them that I have lined up at the moment, I am probably going to stagger them, so that is why I have just bet on the first 2### ( see table above).

###: 3 including the Seahawks' bet, earlier.


"Intermediate strategy" "Advanced strategy 1":
Bet on the "best rated one" first, at the full "~1/30 of my current bank-roll", assume that "the bet has lost", and then bet on the "next best rated one" at the "new (hypothetical) bank-roll" (see scenario below).

Scenario: If I was betting like this, I would bet 3 units (out of the ~90 units, in my "bank-roll") on "bet 1", and then I would bet 2.9 units on "bet 2" (since I assumed that the first bet of 3 units lost).

Note: Changed the above to "Advanced strategy 1", because it is about as hard to work out, as the strategy below (at least for me).

"Advanced strategy 2":
1. Pick an amount that you are "happy to lose" (if all the bets lose)
2. Work out the "total that you would have bet" in the "Normal betting strategy" (if you had bet that way).
3. Divide the amount in step 1 by the figure in step 2.
4. Multiply that amount by 3 (since 3 units is the normal bet amount for "x x x grade" bets).
5. Then round up or down to the number you prefer (within 0.1 units).

Scenario:
1. Say 30% is the maximum you want to lose (if all the bets lose).
2. 13 / 30 = 43.333...%
3. 30% / 43.333...% = 0.692....
4. 0.692... x 3 = 2.07...
5. So, therefore you should have somewhere between 2 or 2.1 units on each of the 13 bets, if using this strategy (whichever amount you prefer).

Important: 40% is probably the absolute maximum I would use in "step 1.", if I was using this strategy.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Nov 1, 2022
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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November 2nd, 2022 at 2:47:25 AM permalink
GameBet / OptionClosing LineGrade / Units
Kent State Golden Flashes vs Ball State Cardinals Under 62.5 @ $1.88 Will x x x / 3
Buffalo Bulls @ Ohio Bobcats Ohio Bobcats @ $1.90 (+2.5) be x x x / 3
Duke Blue Devils @ Boston College EaglesBoston College Eagles @ $3.85 (ML)posted x x x / 1.5
Oregon State Beavers @ Washington HuskiesOver 54.5 @ $1.85after x x x / 3.1
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets @ Virginia Tech HokiesVirginia Tech Hokies @ $1.89 (-3.0)all x x x / 3
UTSA Roadrunners @ UAB Blazers Over 51.5 @ $1.85 games x x x / 3.1
UTSA Roadrunners @ UAB Blazers UAB Blazers @ $1.88 (+1.0) have x x x / 3.1
Troy Trojans @ Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns @ $2.02 (+4.5)been x x x / 2.7
Troy Trojans @ Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns @ $2.8 (ML)completedx x x / 0.1
Tennessee Volunteers @ Georgia BulldogsOver 65.5 @ $1.90x x x / 3
Iowa State Cyclones vs West Virginia Mountaineers West Virginia Mountaineers @ $1.76 (+8.5) x x x / 3.25

---
Other info:
A bit drunk, but the above table was completed before I went out (just got back from my Birthday dinner).

The first 2 bets in the table are repeats from my previous post.

---
Update:
Utah State Aggies vs New Mexico Lobos: ("Grade x x x", as well)
Note 1a): I had this bet a "special way" (important, does not mean that I think it is better or worse than the others' in the above table).
Note 1b): The reason I had it this way, is so that I could get the "average price equivalent" of about $6.80 (ML) on the Lobos or "draw" (the next best ML price available to me was $6.4 for the Lobos, at the time of the bet).
Note 2: All are "first half x second half" doubles (except the first one)

Lobos @ $1.90 (+16.5) / 0.5 (units)

New Mexico Lobos x New Mexico Lobos @ $21 / 0.250
New Mexico Lobos x Draw @ $67 / 0.058
Utah State Aggies x Draw @ $46 / 0.083
Draw x Draw @ $101 / 0.039
Utah State Aggies x New Mexico Lobos @ $26 / 0.150
Draw x New Mexico Lobos @ $71 / 0.075
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Nov 2, 2022

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