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ksdjdj
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October 26th, 2022 at 2:37:57 PM permalink
I decided to move this from the " sports-betting-chatter- thread " (I had been thinking about it for a while).

Important: This thread will only show my "wins/loses" from "graded / rated bets" in the tables below (these types of bets being, " ML " , ATS", and / or "Totals " (O/U) ).

Note: All figures are in units

Past Results (as stated above, from the "Graded / Rated" bets only, in this thread):

NCAAF:
Turnover (Total bet, so far): 120.5
Profit: 46.18
"Profit on Turnover" (%): 38.32...%

NFL:
Turnover (Total bet, so far): 26.25
Profit: -1.06
"Profit on Turnover" (%): -4.03...%

Combined:
Turnover (Total bet, so far): 146.75
Profit: 45.12
"Profit on Turnover" (%): 30.74...%

Edit (about 1700, Pac Time):
Current "bank-roll" (in units): ~ 90 (before the bets I had below)

----
Note 1(a): Grade "x", "x x" and "x x x", are equal to an estimated EV of 8%-10%, 10%-12%, and 12%+ (respectively).
Note 1(b): I am now betting a bit differently, so assume that x = 1.5 units, x x = 2.2 units, and x x x = 3 units (if a unit amount is not stated in the "Grade/Rating" part of the bet)
Note 2: Some of these may be repeats of bets mentioned earlier (in another thread).
Note 3: Games/lines etc, were just copied and pasted from the 'book I bet with (to make it easier/quicker for me).
Note 4: When written the "vs way", the home team is usually listed first.

NCAAF:
GameBet / OptionGrade / Rating
Arizona State Sun Devils @ Colorado Buffaloes Arizona State @ $1.90 (-13) x x x / 1.8 units
Arizona State Sun Devils @ Colorado Buffaloes Arizona State @ $1.88 (-12.5) 0.1 units
Arizona State Sun Devils @ Colorado Buffaloes Arizona State @ $1.91 (-13) 1.1 units
Southern Miss Golden Eagles vs Louisiana-Lafayette Southern Miss Golden Eagles @ $1.85 (+1.5)x x
Utah Utes @ Washington State CougarsWashington State Cougars @ $1.91 (+7.5)x
Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ Syracuse OrangeNotre Dame Fighting Irish @ $1.89 (+3.0)x
Temple Owls @ NavyTemple Owls @ $1.97 (+13.5 )x x
Baylor Bears @ Texas Tech Red RaidersTexas Tech Red Raiders @ $1.89 (-2.5 )x x / 1 unit
Baylor Bears @ Texas Tech Red RaidersTexas Tech Red Raiders @ $1.88 (-2.5 ) 1.2 units
Texas A&M Aggies vs Mississippi Rebels Texas A&M Aggies @ $1.94 (+2.5) x x x / 0.1 units
Texas A&M Aggies vs Mississippi Rebels Texas A&M Aggies @ $2.05 (+1.5) 2.8 units
Missouri Tigers @ South Carolina Gamecocks Missouri Tigers @ $2.61 (ML)x ^^^ / 1.25 units
Illinois Fighting Illini @ Nebraska Cornhuskers Nebraska Cornhuskers @ $1.89 (+7.5) x x x


^^^: When I originally had the bet I estimated it to be an "x grade". But, as I did more work / research etc , I would now have "upgraded it" to an " x x grade" at that price (since the odds shifted against me, before I could have anymore on, it will officially still be an "x grade" bet).

----------
NFL:
GameBet / OptionGrade / Rating
New York Giants @ Seattle Seahawks Seattle Seahawks @ $1.85 (-2.5) x / 1.56 units
Green Bay Packers @ Buffalo Bills Green Bay Packers @ $1.91 (+10.5) x
Miami Dolphins @ Detroit LionsDetroit Lions @ $1.82 (+3.5) x x x / 1.6 units
Miami Dolphins @ Detroit LionsDetroit Lions @ $1.45 (+7.5) 2 units
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Baltimore Ravens Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ $2.05 (ML)x x / 2.1 units
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Philadelphia EaglesPittsburgh Steelers @ $1.91 (+10.5 )x
Minnesota Vikings vs Arizona Cardinals Arizona Cardinals $2.64 (ML)x x meant x x x### / 1.5 units
Denver Broncos @ Jacksonville Jaguars Denver Broncos @ $1.91 (+2.5) x


Update (~2050, Pac Time):
###: It "wasn't a lie" when I thought this was a "x x x bet",
Quote: ksdjdj


(snip)
I had other picks, but below are the "best ones that I could find this week" (all of them are "x x x" grade bets).
(snip)

Cardinals @ (+3.5) ^^^

^^^: Not on yet, because I think there is a good chance for the line to shift out (in other words I think the Cards' may get to +4.0 or more?).
(snip)
link to original post

text
.
But, I made an error in the above table and called it an "x x bet", because I went by my "actual bet(s)", rather than "what I wanted to get on in total" (since I was also hoping that the line would get to +4.0),
The odds have changed against me ATM, so I likely won't be getting the full amount that I wanted.

--------
Comments:
I think the scores for the Bucs' and the Broncos' recently have been "unflattering" ( the "Game Result(s)", "For and against" type ones). But, going by other "metrics" I think they have also been a bit "unfortunate" ("Yards in each game, compared to the opponent" and "1st downs made...", are just some examples of these).

Edit (1710, Pac Time):
I also think the 49ers and Chargers have been a bit "unfortunate", as well (so there could be value backing the 49ers this week, but I haven't looked closely at that game yet).

——-
Edit / update (by phone )
Reminder: if you wish to “copy my bets”, then I am currently having;
~ 1/60 of my “total funds available for betting” on “x bets”
~ 1/40 ... on “ x x bets”
~ 1/30 ... on “x x x bets “

Note: These are my “standard amounts “ when betting ATS / on “50/50” markets.

Important: I would recommend that you never bet more than 5% of your “total funds...” on any one bet .
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Oct 26, 2022
ksdjdj
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October 27th, 2022 at 12:59:12 PM permalink
I was looking at some totals and found a couple that I thought were "value":

Baltimore Ravens @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Under 46.5 Points @ $1.92 ( "x grade").

Wyoming Cowboys @ Hawaii Rainbow Warriors: Under 50.5 @ $1.91 (" x x x grade" / 1 unit)
Wyoming Cowboys @ Hawaii Rainbow Warriors: Under 50.5 @ $1.90 (" x x x grade" / 2 units)
SOOPOO
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October 27th, 2022 at 1:57:24 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

I was looking at some totals and found a couple that I thought were "value":

Baltimore Ravens @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Under 46.5 Points @ $1.92 ( "x grade").

Wyoming Cowboys @ Hawaii Rainbow Warriors: Under 50.5 @ $1.91 (" x x x grade" / 1 unit)
Wyoming Cowboys @ Hawaii Rainbow Warriors: Under 50.5 @ $1.90 (" x x x grade" / 2 units)
link to original post



I got under 51 at -110. Go DEFENSE!
ksdjdj
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October 30th, 2022 at 12:35:48 AM permalink
Draft of my College Football Results (this week):

Note 1: The information under in the "Closing Line" column was just the "average closing Spread / ML / or total", IMO.
Note 2: Est. = Estimated or Estimate

GameBet / OptionClosing LineGrade / RatingUnit Won / Lost
Arizona State Sun Devils @ Colorado Buffaloes Arizona State @ $1.90 (-13) -13x x x
Arizona State Sun Devils @ Colorado Buffaloes Arizona State @ $1.88 (-12.5)
Arizona State Sun Devils @ Colorado Buffaloes Arizona State @ $1.91 (-13) -3
Southern Miss Golden Eagles vs Louisiana-Lafayette Southern Miss Golden Eagles @ $1.85 (+1.5 )+2.5x x1.87
Utah Utes @ Washington State CougarsWashington State Cougars @ $1.91 (+7.5)+7.25 (Est.)x1.37
Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ Syracuse OrangeNotre Dame Fighting Irish @ $1.89 (+3.0)-1x1.34
Temple Owls @ NavyTemple Owls @ $1.97 (+13.5 )+14.5x x2.13
Baylor Bears @ Texas Tech Red RaidersTexas Tech Red Raiders @ $1.89 (-2.5 )-1.5x x0
Baylor Bears @ Texas Tech Red RaidersTexas Tech Red Raiders @ $1.88 (-2.5 )-2.2
Texas A&M Aggies vs Mississippi Rebels Texas A&M Aggies @ $1.94 (+2.5) +3x x x0
Texas A&M Aggies vs Mississippi Rebels Texas A&M Aggies @ $2.05 (+1.5) -2.9
Missouri Tigers @ South Carolina Gamecocks Missouri Tigers @ $2.61 (ML)$2.36 to $2.50x x 2.01
Illinois Fighting Illini @ Nebraska Cornhuskers Nebraska Cornhuskers @ $1.89 (+7.5) +7.5x x x-3
Wyoming Cowboys @ Hawaii Rainbow Warriors: Under 50.5 @ $1.91 x x x0.91
Wyoming Cowboys @ Hawaii Rainbow Warriors: Under 50.5 @ $1.90 51 (Est.)1.8
Total for week:0.326


-----
Comments:
I had a small win this week on my college football bets.
Also, I decided to add a "Closing Line" column because I think that is a better metric to go by IMO (for long-term profitability),

Value compared to the "Closing Line":
I got "positive (+) value" on:
1. Notre Dame +3 vs -1
2. Washington State Cougars +7.5 vs +7.25 (Est.)
3. Missouri Tigers $2.61 (ML) vs $2.50

I got "negative (-) value" on:
1. Southern Miss Golden Eagles +1.5 vs +2.5
2. Temple Owls +13.5 vs +14.5
3. Texas Tech Red Raiders -2.5 vs -1.5
4. Texas A&M Aggies +2.5, +3.0 ^^^
5. Wyoming @ Hawaii, Under 50.5 vs 51 (Est.)

^^^: If you managed to get +3.0, then the bet would have resulted in a push.

I got neither "+/- value" on:
1. Arizona State -13
2. Nebraska Cornhuskers +7.5

----
I will double check that the results are correct later (remember, this is a draft)
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Oct 30, 2022
ksdjdj
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October 30th, 2022 at 3:43:40 PM permalink
Had some more bets on the NFL:

1): Packers upgraded to an " x x x " grade, so I had another 1.5 units @ $1.90 (+10.5)

2: Had two bets on the Browns (also "x x x" grade):
a) Cleveland 2.2 units @ $1.85 (+3.5)
b) Cleveland 1.1 units @ $1.48 (+7.5)
ksdjdj
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November 1st, 2022 at 4:01:57 AM permalink
Like the Seahawks' as a "x x x" one this week.

I had 0.8 units @ $1.61 (+3.5) and
2.4 units @ $1.91 (+1.5).

----
Comments:
I wanted 3.5 to 3.6 units on at the alternative line of +3.5, but they cut me to the amount stated above.

Also, I will put up the previous weeks' NFL results and current overall results, tomorrow (Australia Time),
SOOPOO
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November 1st, 2022 at 4:52:16 AM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

Had some more bets on the NFL:

1): Packers upgraded to an " x x x " grade, so I had another 1.5 units @ $1.90 (+10.5)

2: Had two bets on the Browns (also "x x x" grade):
a) Cleveland 2.2 units @ $1.85 (+3.5)
b) Cleveland 1.1 units @ $1.48 (+7.5)
link to original post



I took your advice on both of these winners. It was actually painful pushing the button on GB + 10.5! Cleveland + 3.5 was easy. Without Chase Cincy is below average. I had Cleveland ML as my fourth team in a parlay which hit! I lost the vast majority of bets…. but hitting a few long shots made it a profitable weekend.

Last night FanDuel gave +150 on Chubb over 59.5 yards rushing, Antetokuonpo over 29.5 points. I love FanDuels offers….I’m limited to $50 bet on these….
ksdjdj
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November 1st, 2022 at 1:29:26 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

Draft of my College Football Results (this week):
(snip)


(snip)
Total for week:0.326

(snip)
link to original post


NFL Results (previous week):
GameBet / OptionClosing LineGrade / Units^^^ Unit Won / Lost
New York Giants @ Seattle Seahawks Seattle Seahawks @ $1.85 (-2.5) -3x / 1.56 1.326
Green Bay Packers @ Buffalo Bills Green Bay Packers @ $1.90 (+10.5) 1.51.350
Green Bay Packers @ Buffalo Bills Green Bay Packers @ $1.91 (+10.5) +10.5x x x / 1.51.365
Miami Dolphins @ Detroit LionsDetroit Lions @ $1.82 (+3.5) +3.5x x x / 1.6 -1.600
Miami Dolphins @ Detroit LionsDetroit Lions @ $1.45 (+7.5) 20.900
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Baltimore Ravens Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ $2.05 (ML)-2***x x-2.100
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Baltimore Ravens Under 46.546.5x-1.500
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Philadelphia EaglesPittsburgh Steelers @ $1.91 (+10.5 )+11.5x-1.500
Minnesota Vikings vs Arizona Cardinals Arizona Cardinals $2.64 (ML)+4 ***x x x / 1.5 -1.500
Denver Broncos @ Jacksonville Jaguars Denver Broncos @ $1.91 (+2.5) +1x1.365
Cleveland v CincinnatiCleveland @ $1.85 (+3.5)+3x x x / 2.2 1.870
Cleveland v CincinnatiCleveland @ $1.48 (+7.5)1.10.528
Total for week:0.504

***: I know these were ML bets, but I haven't found a closing line written like that (yet),

^^^: Instead of writing units next to each number, assume that any number in the column is in units from now on.

Note: All figures below are also in units (unless stated otherwise).

Current Results:

NCAAF:
Turnover (Total bet, so far): 143.25
Profit: 46.506
"Profit on Turnover": 32.46...%

NFL:
Turnover (Total bet, so far): 45.81
Profit: -0.556
"Profit on Turnover": -1.21...%

Combined:
Turnover (Total bet, so far): 189.06
Profit: 45.95
"Profit on Turnover": 24.30...%
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Nov 1, 2022
ksdjdj
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November 1st, 2022 at 2:19:58 PM permalink
NCAAF (Week 10):
GameBet / OptionClosing LineGrade / Units
Kent State Golden Flashes vs Ball State Cardinals Under 62.5 @ $1.88 NA (at this time)x x x / 3
Buffalo Bulls @ Ohio Bobcats Ohio Bobcats @ $1.90 (+2.5) NA (at this time)x x x / 3


Note 1: Including the 2 above, there are up to 13 potential "x x x grade" bets, ATM.
Note 2: I don't want to do any "intermediate/advanced betting strategies, at this time, but I will explain what the strategies are below (in case, I end up recommending them later).

-----
"Normal betting strategy":
I normally like to bet ~1/30 of my current "bank-roll" on "x x x grade" bets.
But since there are 13 of them that I have lined up at the moment, I am probably going to stagger them, so that is why I have just bet on the first 2### ( see table above).

###: 3 including the Seahawks' bet, earlier.


"Intermediate strategy" "Advanced strategy 1":
Bet on the "best rated one" first, at the full "~1/30 of my current bank-roll", assume that "the bet has lost", and then bet on the "next best rated one" at the "new (hypothetical) bank-roll" (see scenario below).

Scenario: If I was betting like this, I would bet 3 units (out of the ~90 units, in my "bank-roll") on "bet 1", and then I would bet 2.9 units on "bet 2" (since I assumed that the first bet of 3 units lost).

Note: Changed the above to "Advanced strategy 1", because it is about as hard to work out, as the strategy below (at least for me).

"Advanced strategy 2":
1. Pick an amount that you are "happy to lose" (if all the bets lose)
2. Work out the "total that you would have bet" in the "Normal betting strategy" (if you had bet that way).
3. Divide the amount in step 1 by the figure in step 2.
4. Multiply that amount by 3 (since 3 units is the normal bet amount for "x x x grade" bets).
5. Then round up or down to the number you prefer (within 0.1 units).

Scenario:
1. Say 30% is the maximum you want to lose (if all the bets lose).
2. 13 / 30 = 43.333...%
3. 30% / 43.333...% = 0.692....
4. 0.692... x 3 = 2.07...
5. So, therefore you should have somewhere between 2 or 2.1 units on each of the 13 bets, if using this strategy (whichever amount you prefer).

Important: 40% is probably the absolute maximum I would use in "step 1.", if I was using this strategy.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Nov 1, 2022
ksdjdj
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November 2nd, 2022 at 2:47:25 AM permalink
GameBet / OptionClosing LineGrade / Units
Kent State Golden Flashes vs Ball State Cardinals Under 62.5 @ $1.88 Will x x x / 3
Buffalo Bulls @ Ohio Bobcats Ohio Bobcats @ $1.90 (+2.5) be x x x / 3
Duke Blue Devils @ Boston College EaglesBoston College Eagles @ $3.85 (ML)posted x x x / 1.5
Oregon State Beavers @ Washington HuskiesOver 54.5 @ $1.85after x x x / 3.1
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets @ Virginia Tech HokiesVirginia Tech Hokies @ $1.89 (-3.0)all x x x / 3
UTSA Roadrunners @ UAB Blazers Over 51.5 @ $1.85 games x x x / 3.1
UTSA Roadrunners @ UAB Blazers UAB Blazers @ $1.88 (+1.0) have x x x / 3.1
Troy Trojans @ Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns @ $2.02 (+4.5)been x x x / 2.7
Troy Trojans @ Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns @ $2.8 (ML)completedx x x / 0.1
Tennessee Volunteers @ Georgia BulldogsOver 65.5 @ $1.90x x x / 3
Iowa State Cyclones vs West Virginia Mountaineers West Virginia Mountaineers @ $1.76 (+8.5) x x x / 3.25

---
Other info:
A bit drunk, but the above table was completed before I went out (just got back from my Birthday dinner).

The first 2 bets in the table are repeats from my previous post.

---
Update:
Utah State Aggies vs New Mexico Lobos: ("Grade x x x", as well)
Note 1a): I had this bet a "special way" (important, does not mean that I think it is better or worse than the others' in the above table).
Note 1b): The reason I had it this way, is so that I could get the "average price equivalent" of about $6.80 (ML) on the Lobos or "draw" (the next best ML price available to me was $6.4 for the Lobos, at the time of the bet).
Note 2: All are "first half x second half" doubles (except the first one)

Lobos @ $1.90 (+16.5) / 0.5 (units)

New Mexico Lobos x New Mexico Lobos @ $21 / 0.250
New Mexico Lobos x Draw @ $67 / 0.058
Utah State Aggies x Draw @ $46 / 0.083
Draw x Draw @ $101 / 0.039
Utah State Aggies x New Mexico Lobos @ $26 / 0.150
Draw x New Mexico Lobos @ $71 / 0.075
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Nov 2, 2022
SOOPOO
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November 2nd, 2022 at 4:47:02 AM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

GameBet / OptionClosing LineGrade / Units
Kent State Golden Flashes vs Ball State Cardinals Under 62.5 @ $1.88 Will x x x / 3
Buffalo Bulls @ Ohio Bobcats Ohio Bobcats @ $1.90 (+2.5) be x x x / 3
Duke Blue Devils @ Boston College EaglesBoston College Eagles @ $3.85 (ML)posted x x x / 1.5
Oregon State Beavers @ Washington HuskiesOver 54.5 @ $1.85after x x x / 3.1
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets @ Virginia Tech HokiesVirginia Tech Hokies @ $1.89 (-3.0)all x x x / 3
UTSA Roadrunners @ UAB Blazers Over 51.5 @ $1.85 games x x x / 3.1
UTSA Roadrunners @ UAB Blazers UAB Blazers @ $1.88 (+1.0) have x x x / 3.1
Troy Trojans @ Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns @ $2.02 (+4.5)been x x x / 2.7
Troy Trojans @ Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns @ $2.8 (ML)completedx x x / 0.1
Tennessee Volunteers @ Georgia BulldogsOver 65.5 @ $1.90x x x / 3
Iowa State Cyclones vs West Virginia Mountaineers West Virginia Mountaineers @ $1.76 (+8.5) x x x / 3.25

---
Other info:
A bit drunk, but the above table was completed before I went out (just got back from my Birthday dinner).

The first 2 bets in the table are repeats from my previous post.

---
Update:
Utah State Aggies vs New Mexico Lobos: ("Grade x x x", as well)
Note 1a): I had this bet a "special way" (important, does not mean that I think it is better or worse than the others' in the above table).
Note 1b): The reason I had it this way, is so that I could get the "average price equivalent" of about $6.80 (ML) on the Lobos or "draw" (the next best ML price available to me was $6.4 for the Lobos, at the time of the bet).
Note 2: All are "first half x second half" doubles (except the first one)

Lobos @ $1.90 (+16.5) / 0.5 (units)

New Mexico Lobos x New Mexico Lobos @ $21 / 0.250
New Mexico Lobos x Draw @ $67 / 0.058
Utah State Aggies x Draw @ $46 / 0.083
Draw x Draw @ $101 / 0.039
Utah State Aggies x New Mexico Lobos @ $26 / 0.150
Draw x New Mexico Lobos @ $71 / 0.075
link to original post



Happy birthday.
DRich
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November 2nd, 2022 at 4:53:46 AM permalink
Good start for the week with your Kent st Under and Ohio picks.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
unJon
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November 2nd, 2022 at 5:38:11 AM permalink
Happy birthday!
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
ksdjdj
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November 2nd, 2022 at 12:12:48 PM permalink
Thank you everyone, for the birthday comments.

Quote: DRich

I am excited to see Tuesday night college football is back on ESPN. We now have football on TV seven days a week. Go Golden Flashes and Bobcats.
link to original post


Also, thank you for posting this (see quote above from the "sports chatter thread") because I didn't even know about the Tuesday games' this week.

Note: I would probably still have bet on them, but maybe the "total for the game that I bet on the under" would have been closer to 61.5 (the closing line, according to VI ).
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Nov 2, 2022
ksdjdj
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November 2nd, 2022 at 12:57:08 PM permalink
I like*** the under for both of todays' college games (if I picked a grade, both would be around "x x", IMO).

"Northern Illinois Game" (Total currently 56.5 to 57).
"Bowling Green Game" (Total currently 47.5 to 48).

***: Not enough to bet^^^ though (because there are plenty of "x x x" ones this week).

^^^: The other reason, I am not betting on anything lower ATM, is because I read some interesting articles that said something along the lines of: "...don't bet on everything, even if you think they are good value, just pick the ones you think are the best value... ".

Also, if "forced to pick" a team ATS today, I am leaning towards Western Michigan @ +5, but I wouldn't even have that as an "x " one (somewhere between 54 and 55%, is the estimated chance that I got for them).

Important: I haven't bet on these, so they won't be counted as part of the "official results".
ksdjdj
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November 2nd, 2022 at 3:01:37 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

I like*** the under for both of todays' college games (if I picked a grade, both would be around "x x", IMO).

"Northern Illinois Game" (Total currently 56.5 to 57).
"Bowling Green Game" (Total currently 47.5 to 48).
(snip)
link to original post


These games' will be upgraded to an "x x x", if you can get at least (before kick-off):

"Northern Illinois Game" (Under 57.5)
"Bowling Green Game" (Under 48.5)

Note: Odds must be -111 or better (-110 is the standard line with most US 'books).
unJon
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November 2nd, 2022 at 3:53:17 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

Quote: ksdjdj

I like*** the under for both of todays' college games (if I picked a grade, both would be around "x x", IMO).

"Northern Illinois Game" (Total currently 56.5 to 57).
"Bowling Green Game" (Total currently 47.5 to 48).
(snip)
link to original post


These games' will be upgraded to an "x x x", if you can get at least (before kick-off):

"Northern Illinois Game" (Under 57.5)
"Bowling Green Game" (Under 48.5)

Note: Odds must be -111 or better (-110 is the standard line with most US 'books).
link to original post



Northern Illinois total is 53.5 from right now.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
ksdjdj
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November 2nd, 2022 at 4:14:00 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

Quote: ksdjdj

Quote: ksdjdj

I like*** the under for both of todays' college games (if I picked a grade, both would be around "x x", IMO).

"Northern Illinois Game" (Total currently 56.5 to 57).
"Bowling Green Game" (Total currently 47.5 to 48).
(snip)
link to original post


These games' will be upgraded to an "x x x", if you can get at least (before kick-off):

"Northern Illinois Game" (Under 57.5)
"Bowling Green Game" (Under 48.5)

Note: Odds must be -111 or better (-110 is the standard line with most US 'books).
link to original post



Northern Illinois total is 53.5 from right now.
link to original post


ATM, I don't know why the total dipped by 3 to 3.5 points in the last hour or so (maybe a QB, or a key offensive player is out?).

Also, I didn't end up having bets on today's games, anyway.
SOOPOO
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November 2nd, 2022 at 4:16:47 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

Quote: ksdjdj

Quote: ksdjdj

I like*** the under for both of todays' college games (if I picked a grade, both would be around "x x", IMO).

"Northern Illinois Game" (Total currently 56.5 to 57).
"Bowling Green Game" (Total currently 47.5 to 48).
(snip)
link to original post


These games' will be upgraded to an "x x x", if you can get at least (before kick-off):

"Northern Illinois Game" (Under 57.5)
"Bowling Green Game" (Under 48.5)

Note: Odds must be -111 or better (-110 is the standard line with most US 'books).
link to original post



Northern Illinois total is 53.5 from right now.
link to original post



I got under 57.5. Wonder what happened to have a 4 point swing?
ksdjdj
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November 2nd, 2022 at 5:44:24 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: unJon

Quote: ksdjdj

Quote: ksdjdj

I like*** the under for both of todays' college games (if I picked a grade, both would be around "x x", IMO).

"Northern Illinois Game" (Total currently 56.5 to 57).
"Bowling Green Game" (Total currently 47.5 to 48).
(snip)
link to original post


These games' will be upgraded to an "x x x", if you can get at least (before kick-off):

"Northern Illinois Game" (Under 57.5)
"Bowling Green Game" (Under 48.5)

Note: Odds must be -111 or better (-110 is the standard line with most US 'books).
link to original post



Northern Illinois total is 53.5 from right now.
link to original post



I got under 57.5. Wonder what happened to have a 4 point swing?
link to original post


I know you didn't say how much you bet on the N Illinois game*** , but if you bet more than 5% of your "total betting funds", then I would recommend that you partially hedge^^^ to reduce the maximum liability to somewhere between 3.3 and 5%.

***: The live total is between 41.5 and 42.5 with the two Aussie 'books that I am looking at (but I don't bet live very often, so I don't know if those are good value, or not?).

^^^: If you have been following my "bet-size" recommendations fairly strictly, then you shouldn't need to hedge.

----
Other:
Sorry to use your bet as a potential example of when it is "sometimes a good play to hedge" (especially if you did bet less than 5% of your "total betting funds").

----
Update:
Important: The live totals mentioned above, were correct at half-time.
So now that the second half has started, please disregard them (especially in regards to any potential "hedging opportunities").
SOOPOO
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November 2nd, 2022 at 7:22:05 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: unJon

Quote: ksdjdj

Quote: ksdjdj

I like*** the under for both of todays' college games (if I picked a grade, both would be around "x x", IMO).

"Northern Illinois Game" (Total currently 56.5 to 57).
"Bowling Green Game" (Total currently 47.5 to 48).
(snip)
link to original post


These games' will be upgraded to an "x x x", if you can get at least (before kick-off):

"Northern Illinois Game" (Under 57.5)
"Bowling Green Game" (Under 48.5)

Note: Odds must be -111 or better (-110 is the standard line with most US 'books).
link to original post



Northern Illinois total is 53.5 from right now.
link to original post



I got under 57.5. Wonder what happened to have a 4 point swing?
link to original post


I know you didn't say how much you bet on the N Illinois game*** , but if you bet more than 5% of your "total betting funds", then I would recommend that you partially hedge^^^ to reduce the maximum liability to somewhere between 3.3 and 5%.

***: The live total is between 41.5 and 42.5 with the two Aussie 'books that I am looking at (but I don't bet live very often, so I don't know if those are good value, or not?).

^^^: If you have been following my "bet-size" recommendations fairly strictly, then you shouldn't need to hedge.

----
Other:
Sorry to use your bet as a potential example of when it is "sometimes a good play to hedge" (especially if you did bet less than 5% of your "total betting funds").

----
Update:
Important: The live totals mentioned above, were correct at half-time.
So now that the second half has started, please disregard them (especially in regards to any potential "hedging opportunities").
link to original post



LOL!!!! Don’t worry about me overbetting any of these games! I bet $22 to win $20 on that bet! Please don’t take offense, but I’m doing this more to have fun than anything else!

Frankly, I’m fascinated that you identify SO MANY ‘bad lines. I’d have guessed there would only be a few per week.

My big bet tonight (multiple leg parlay) needs the MLB game to go over 7.5. I’ve hedged a bit on under 8.5 after Astros went up 5.
DRich
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November 3rd, 2022 at 1:28:00 PM permalink
Props for picking NIU under 57.5. The total was 57. On the last touchdown CMU went for 2 but had a penalty and kicked it instead. Saved your under.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
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November 3rd, 2022 at 3:05:14 PM permalink
I think the Texans @ +14^^^ are good value*** (if I were to put up a number, I think they should be somewhere between +10.5 to +11).

^^^: I am not on yet, because the only 'book with that price at the moment doesn't open until after 10am "Australia Time" (about 2 hours).

***: Reminder, only posting the "x x x" ones this week.

My "betting plan": If I don't get on the Texans at +14 (or better) before the game, I will probably bet live on them at 3/4 time if they are behind by at least 17 points (because I think the Eagles may send in the "b-team" offense).

----
Also, I had another College Football bet (will add to the table later)

Oregon vs. Colorado Under 62.5 @ $1.92 - 3 units
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Nov 3, 2022
ksdjdj
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November 3rd, 2022 at 3:16:16 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

Props for picking NIU under 57.5. The total was 57. On the last touchdown CMU went for 2 but had a penalty and kicked it instead. Saved your under.
link to original post


I didn't bet because the best I could get was 57.
But I also missed out on a couple of other picks, because I didn't think they were "good enough" to be "x x x", and I am only betting on those this week (as I think I managed to find a lot more of those than I normally do).

I was following it on "ESPN gamecast", and I think that the total got to 57 with about 7 minutes left in the 4th quarter.

----
Extra:

Not that you asked, but I still haven't looked to see if any "key players' " were out, as there was a sudden drop of 3-4 points on the total, closer### to kick-off (thanks to the post from unJon, I saw that the total went to about 53.5 with at least some 'books).

###: About an hour before the game, you could still get 56.5 or 57 (with the ones that I bet with).
SOOPOO
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November 3rd, 2022 at 3:42:32 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

I think the Texans @ +14^^^ are good value*** (if I were to put up a number, I think they should be somewhere between +10.5 to +11).

^^^: I am not on yet, because the only 'book with that price at the moment doesn't open until after 10am "Australia Time" (about 2 hours).

***: Reminder, only posting the "x x x" ones this week.

My "betting plan": If I don't get on the Texans at +14 (or better) before the game, I will probably bet live on them at 3/4 time if they are behind by at least 17 points (because I think the Eagles may send in the "b-team" offense).

----
Also, I had another College Football bet (will add to the table later)

Oregon vs. Colorado Under 62.5 @ $1.92 - 3 units
link to original post




Got under 63. At -110. Go defense!!!
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November 3rd, 2022 at 5:12:12 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

I think the Texans @ +14^^^ are good value*** (if I were to put up a number, I think they should be somewhere between +10.5 to +11).

^^^: I am not on yet, because the only 'book with that price at the moment doesn't open until after 10am "Australia Time" (about 2 hours).

***: Reminder, only posting the "x x x" ones this week.

My "betting plan": If I don't get on the Texans at +14 (or better) before the game, I will probably bet live on them at 3/4 time if they are behind by at least 17 points (because I think the Eagles may send in the "b-team" offense).
(snip)
link to original post


I didn't get on because my stomach is playing up badly for some reason (the Texans got to +14.0 @ $1.95, so I really would have liked to visit the "betting shop" and back them at that price).

Hopefully I am better by 3/4 time, if the Eagles are up by 17+ (so I can bet live).
ksdjdj
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November 3rd, 2022 at 7:27:03 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

Quote: ksdjdj

(snip)
My "betting plan": If I don't get on the Texans at +14 (or better) before the game, I will probably bet live on them at 3/4 time if they are behind by at least 17 points (because I think the Eagles may send in the "b-team" offense).
(snip)
link to original post


(snip)
Hopefully I am better by 3/4 time, if the Eagles are up by 17+ (so I can bet live).
link to original post


Even though I am feeling well enough to drive now, my "plan b" for the Texans is not going to happen (as the score is 21 - 17 at the end of the 3rd quarter).
ksdjdj
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November 3rd, 2022 at 11:50:15 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

Quote: ksdjdj

(snip)
link to original post


I didn't get on because my stomach is playing up badly for some reason (the Texans got to +14.0 @ $1.95, so I really would have liked to visit the "betting shop" and back them at that price).
(snip)
link to original post


Since I didn't get on, I was kinda hoping that the Texans would lose by more than 14 points, so I could make a "lame joke" (something like "I must've had a gut-feeling that the Texans weren't going to beat the spread").
ksdjdj
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November 4th, 2022 at 12:05:07 AM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

(snip)
Note 2: All are "first half x second half" doubles (except the first one)

Lobos @ $1.90 (+16.5) / 0.5 (units)

New Mexico Lobos x New Mexico Lobos @ $21 / 0.250
New Mexico Lobos x Draw @ $67 / 0.058
Utah State Aggies x Draw @ $46 / 0.083
Draw x Draw @ $101 / 0.039
Utah State Aggies x New Mexico Lobos @ $26 / 0.150
Draw x New Mexico Lobos @ $71 / 0.075
link to original post


I was going back through some of my posts, and I should have used "first half x full time result (not including over-time)", for the above list of bets (instead of "first half x second half" doubles).
SOOPOO
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November 4th, 2022 at 4:55:04 AM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

Quote: ksdjdj

(snip)
Note 2: All are "first half x second half" doubles (except the first one)

Lobos @ $1.90 (+16.5) / 0.5 (units)

New Mexico Lobos x New Mexico Lobos @ $21 / 0.250
New Mexico Lobos x Draw @ $67 / 0.058
Utah State Aggies x Draw @ $46 / 0.083
Draw x Draw @ $101 / 0.039
Utah State Aggies x New Mexico Lobos @ $26 / 0.150
Draw x New Mexico Lobos @ $71 / 0.075
link to original post


I was going back through some of my posts, and I should have used "first half x full time result (not including over-time)", for the above list of bets (instead of "first half x second half" doubles).
link to original post



I had Texans +6.5 1st half/ +13.5 full time/ over 45.5! That’s a skin of your teeth parlay! Plus Texans plus 14 as per your three star suggestion! You are the man!
DRich
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November 4th, 2022 at 6:34:20 AM permalink
The weather is starting to change around the country so it is time to start factoring that into your total plays. Lots of college games will start being affected.
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November 4th, 2022 at 1:12:53 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

The weather is starting to change around the country so it is time to start factoring that into your total plays. Lots of college games will start being affected.
link to original post


Where I live^^^ in Australia, the maximum temp has been about ~75 F for the last few days, but it feels "cold for this time of year". Especially because we just came out of a " warmer than normal end to October" (a lot of days with a maximum around 87 - 90 F).

^^^: The "average maximum temperature" for November is about 80 F.
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November 4th, 2022 at 5:47:38 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj


Where I live^^^ in Australia, the maximum temp has been about ~75 F for the last few days, but it feels "cold for this time of year". Especially because we just came out of a " warmer than normal end to October" (a lot of days with a maximum around 87 - 90 F).

^^^: The "average maximum temperature" for November is about 80 F.



It is supposed to get cold here later this week. November, December, and January begin to feel like winter.

At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
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November 5th, 2022 at 3:54:58 AM permalink
Some new bets:

Oklahoma State Cowboys @ Kansas Jayhawks - Oklahoma State Cowboys @ $2.00 (ML) - 3 units.
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks vs Texas State Bobcats - Under 46.5^^^ @ $2.7^^^ - 2.2 units

^^^: IMO, if you can get under 52 or better @ -110, it is "about the same value" (so it is " x x x", like the rest of them that I am posting this week).

----
Comments:

Not a good day for me today (Australia Time) but I think Boston College beat the spread if you were smart enough to bet them that way.
Since I had my bet. they went from about +9.5 or so, to +12.5 or $3.85 to $4.60, as I had my bet on the ML (because I was working today, I didn't get to see if there were any more changes closer to game time).
DRich
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November 5th, 2022 at 3:54:15 PM permalink
Congrats you two on the Oregon game.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
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November 5th, 2022 at 4:19:05 PM permalink
I kind of like Hawaii tonight +27 and a small lean to the under 62. I think Hawaii will put in a valiant effort to run the ball and shorten the game.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
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November 5th, 2022 at 4:27:01 PM permalink
Had 3 units @ $1.89 on each of the following:
Notre Dame +4.0 (I think they should be about +1.5)
Rutgers +26.0 (... should be about +21)

-----
Comments:

Bad week for me on the college football, so far.
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November 5th, 2022 at 4:30:41 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

I kind of like Hawaii tonight +27 and a small lean to the under 62. I think Hawaii will put in a valiant effort to run the ball and shorten the game.
link to original post


I agree, that Hawaii +27 and the under 62 is looking good.

I may even have a bet on the under, if it is still 61.5 or better ( closer to the game).
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November 5th, 2022 at 7:18:07 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

Quote: DRich

I kind of like Hawaii tonight +27 and a small lean to the under 62. I think Hawaii will put in a valiant effort to run the ball and shorten the game.
link to original post


I agree, that Hawaii +27 and the under 62 is looking good.

I may even have a bet on the under, if it is still 61.5 or better ( closer to the game).
link to original post


I had 3.2 units @ $1.88 on the Under 62.5 (Hawaii game).

----
"Unrelated" Comments:

I am not on this game, but I did a double take looking at the live scores for the Houston / SMU game (I thought I must have clicked on College basketball for a second).

----
Update (~200, Pac Time):

Two new NFL bets, both for 3 units

Commanders (+3.0) @ $1.95 and Panthers (+7.5) @ $1.90
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Nov 6, 2022
DRich
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November 6th, 2022 at 3:41:38 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

I kind of like Hawaii tonight +27 and a small lean to the under 62. I think Hawaii will put in a valiant effort to run the ball and shorten the game.
link to original post



Fade this guy, he is terrible.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
ksdjdj
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November 6th, 2022 at 1:21:42 PM permalink
Rams $2.40 ML - 2.5 units
ksdjdj
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November 6th, 2022 at 3:27:29 PM permalink
I had 1.1 units on the Titans ML^^^ @ $6.50 and
0.25 units on "Titans +13.5 x over 44.5 " @ $3.60.

^^^; The better value bet "on paper" was probably the +13.5 @ $1.95, but I seem to get more "bonus bets" when I place ML bets that win (with this particular 'book).

Reminder: trying to bet on only " x x x " ones this week.

----
Update:

Looks like I should have waited, I can get either $6.80 ML, or +14 @ $1.90 now (Tannehill out)
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Nov 6, 2022
ksdjdj
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November 6th, 2022 at 9:32:04 PM permalink
I took the Saints' ML @ $2.05 - 3 units.

Note: As stated / implied in the above post, I am taking ML a lot more this week because I think that gives me the best chance of getting the most in bonus bet offers.
ksdjdj
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November 7th, 2022 at 10:15:05 PM permalink
Results Summary:

NCAAF:
GameBet / OptionUnit Won / Lost
Kent State Golden Flashes vs Ball State Cardinals Under 62.5 @ $1.88 2.640
Buffalo Bulls @ Ohio Bobcats Ohio Bobcats @ $1.90 (+2.5) 2.700
Duke Blue Devils @ Boston College EaglesBoston College Eagles @ $3.85 (ML)-1.500
Oregon State Beavers @ Washington HuskiesOver 54.5 @ $1.85-3.100
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets @ Virginia Tech HokiesVirginia Tech Hokies @ $1.89 (-3.0)-3.000
UTSA Roadrunners @ UAB Blazers Over 51.5 @ $1.85 2.635
UTSA Roadrunners @ UAB Blazers UAB Blazers @ $1.88 (+1.0) -3.100
Troy Trojans @ Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns @ $2.02 (+4.5)-2.700
Troy Trojans @ Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns @ $2.8 (ML)-0.100
Tennessee Volunteers @ Georgia BulldogsOver 65.5 @ $1.90-3.000
Iowa State Cyclones vs West Virginia Mountaineers West Virginia Mountaineers @ $1.76 (+8.5) -3.250
Oregon vs. ColoradoUnder 62.5 @ $1.92 2.760
Oklahoma State Cowboys @ Kansas JayhawksOklahoma State Cowboys @ $2.00 (ML)-3.000
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks - Texas State BobcatsUnder 46.5 @ $2.70-2.200
New Mexico Lobos ("1st half x game" doubles)-0.655
New Mexico Lobos +16.5-0.500
Clemson – Notre DameNotre Dame +4.02.670
Michigan – RutgersRutgers +26.0-3.000
Hawaii Under 62.5 – 3.2 units-3.200
Total For Week-18.900

NFL:
Bet / OptionClosing LineUnit Won / Lost
Seahawks 0.8 units @ $1.61 (+3.5) NA (alternative line)0.488
Seahawks 2.4 units @ $1.91 (+1.5).+2.52.184
Panthers (+7.5) @ $1.90 +7-3.000
Commanders (+3.0) @ $1.95 +30.000
Rams $2.40 ML - 2.5 units +3-2.500
1.1 units on the Titans ML @ $6.50 +14-1.100
0.25 units on "Titans +13.5 x over 44.5 " @ $3.60. Total 45.5-0.250
Saints' ML @ $2.05 - 3 units. +1.5-3.000
Total For Week-7.178


Current Results:

NCAAF:
Turnover (Total bet, so far): 190.655
Profit: 27.606
"Profit on Turnover": 14.47...%

NFL:
Turnover (Total bet, so far): 61.86
Profit: -7.734
"Profit on Turnover": -12.50...%

Combined:
Turnover (Total bet, so far): 252.515
Profit: 19.872
"Profit on Turnover": 7.86...%
ksdjdj
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November 8th, 2022 at 12:46:47 PM permalink
Eastern Michigan Eagles @ Akron Zips (both 2.7 units):

Under 57.0 @ $1.90
Akron Zips +3.5 @ $1.92 (1st half)

-----
Ohio Bobcats @ Miami RedHawks (2.4 units):

Miami RedHawks ML @ $2.20 ***

***: Had the ML because I am "bonus bet hunting" as well, if I didn't think there was a "good chance" of getting a bonus, I would have preferred the +2.5 @ $1.95 .

-----
Important: Because I had such a big drop in "betting capital" this week, 2.7 units is probably the biggest bet I will have on "50/50" lines, so in other words these are still " x x x grade ", IMO.
DRich
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November 8th, 2022 at 1:39:31 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

Eastern Michigan Eagles @ Akron Zips (both 2.7 units):

Under 57.0 @ $1.90
Akron Zips +3.5 @ $1.92 (1st half)

-----
Ohio Bobcats @ Miami RedHawks (2.4 units):

Miami RedHawks ML @ $2.20 ***

***: Had the ML because I am "bonus bet hunting" as well, if I didn't think there was a "good chance" of getting a bonus, I would have preferred the +2.5 @ $1.95 .

-----
Important: Because I had such a big drop in "betting capital" this week, 2.7 units is probably the biggest bet I will have on "50/50" lines, so in other words these are still " x x x grade ", IMO.
link to original post



Wow, I don't know that I have ever had a winning bet on the Zips. Best of luck.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
SOOPOO
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November 8th, 2022 at 2:00:54 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

Eastern Michigan Eagles @ Akron Zips (both 2.7 units):

Under 57.0 @ $1.90
Akron Zips +3.5 @ $1.92 (1st half)

-----
Ohio Bobcats @ Miami RedHawks (2.4 units):

Miami RedHawks ML @ $2.20 ***

***: Had the ML because I am "bonus bet hunting" as well, if I didn't think there was a "good chance" of getting a bonus, I would have preferred the +2.5 @ $1.95 .

-----
Important: Because I had such a big drop in "betting capital" this week, 2.7 units is probably the biggest bet I will have on "50/50" lines, so in other words these are still " x x x grade ", IMO.
link to original post



I got under 57.5 at -110
I also got +4 1st half at -110.

Both slightly better than your odds.
ksdjdj
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November 8th, 2022 at 2:02:08 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: ksdjdj

Eastern Michigan Eagles @ Akron Zips (both 2.7 units):

Under 57.0 @ $1.90
Akron Zips +3.5 @ $1.92 (1st half)

-----
Ohio Bobcats @ Miami RedHawks (2.4 units):

Miami RedHawks ML @ $2.20 ***

***: Had the ML because I am "bonus bet hunting" as well, if I didn't think there was a "good chance" of getting a bonus, I would have preferred the +2.5 @ $1.95 .

-----
Important: Because I had such a big drop in "betting capital" this week, 2.7 units is probably the biggest bet I will have on "50/50" lines, so in other words these are still " x x x grade ", IMO.
link to original post



Wow, I don't know that I have ever had a winning bet on the Zips. Best of luck.
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I think they should be about +2.0 for the 1st half, and +3.0 for the 2nd half.

Note: I normally don't bet on the "halves", but I could only get +6.5 for the "whole game" with the 'books that I bet with (I was looking for +7.5).
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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November 8th, 2022 at 3:30:32 PM permalink
IMO, these are about 53%-54% chance at their current line, for the following NFL teams, this week:

Packers (+5.5)
Rams (-3)
Texans (+6.5)
Bucs' (-2.5) ***

***: This was the hardest one to pick, because I really liked the Seahawks' (before I did any extra work on this game).

Also, if you can get the following lines (or better) for the above games, then they will almost automatically^^^ become a "x x x grade", IMO.

^^^: Only true if the rosters' (especially key players') haven't changed between now and game time.

Packers (+7.0)
Rams (-2)
Texans (+7.5)
Bucs' (" Pick em ")
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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Joined: Oct 20, 2013
November 8th, 2022 at 8:17:24 PM permalink
The only good thing that happened today, was that I got $700 in bonus bets (so roughly the equivalent value to $500 in cash).
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