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SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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ksdjdj
November 2nd, 2022 at 7:22:05 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: unJon

Quote: ksdjdj

Quote: ksdjdj

I like*** the under for both of todays' college games (if I picked a grade, both would be around "x x", IMO).

"Northern Illinois Game" (Total currently 56.5 to 57).
"Bowling Green Game" (Total currently 47.5 to 48).
(snip)
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These games' will be upgraded to an "x x x", if you can get at least (before kick-off):

"Northern Illinois Game" (Under 57.5)
"Bowling Green Game" (Under 48.5)

Note: Odds must be -111 or better (-110 is the standard line with most US 'books).
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Northern Illinois total is 53.5 from right now.
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I got under 57.5. Wonder what happened to have a 4 point swing?
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I know you didn't say how much you bet on the N Illinois game*** , but if you bet more than 5% of your "total betting funds", then I would recommend that you partially hedge^^^ to reduce the maximum liability to somewhere between 3.3 and 5%.

***: The live total is between 41.5 and 42.5 with the two Aussie 'books that I am looking at (but I don't bet live very often, so I don't know if those are good value, or not?).

^^^: If you have been following my "bet-size" recommendations fairly strictly, then you shouldn't need to hedge.

----
Other:
Sorry to use your bet as a potential example of when it is "sometimes a good play to hedge" (especially if you did bet less than 5% of your "total betting funds").

----
Update:
Important: The live totals mentioned above, were correct at half-time.
So now that the second half has started, please disregard them (especially in regards to any potential "hedging opportunities").
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LOL!!!! Donít worry about me overbetting any of these games! I bet $22 to win $20 on that bet! Please donít take offense, but Iím doing this more to have fun than anything else!

Frankly, Iím fascinated that you identify SO MANY Ďbad lines. Iíd have guessed there would only be a few per week.

My big bet tonight (multiple leg parlay) needs the MLB game to go over 7.5. Iíve hedged a bit on under 8.5 after Astros went up 5.
DRich
DRich
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Thanks for this post from:
ksdjdj
November 3rd, 2022 at 1:28:00 PM permalink
Props for picking NIU under 57.5. The total was 57. On the last touchdown CMU went for 2 but had a penalty and kicked it instead. Saved your under.
Order from chaos
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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November 3rd, 2022 at 3:05:14 PM permalink
I think the Texans @ +14^^^ are good value*** (if I were to put up a number, I think they should be somewhere between +10.5 to +11).

^^^: I am not on yet, because the only 'book with that price at the moment doesn't open until after 10am "Australia Time" (about 2 hours).

***: Reminder, only posting the "x x x" ones this week.

My "betting plan": If I don't get on the Texans at +14 (or better) before the game, I will probably bet live on them at 3/4 time if they are behind by at least 17 points (because I think the Eagles may send in the "b-team" offense).

----
Also, I had another College Football bet (will add to the table later)

Oregon vs. Colorado Under 62.5 @ $1.92 - 3 units
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Nov 3, 2022
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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November 3rd, 2022 at 3:16:16 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

Props for picking NIU under 57.5. The total was 57. On the last touchdown CMU went for 2 but had a penalty and kicked it instead. Saved your under.
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I didn't bet because the best I could get was 57.
But I also missed out on a couple of other picks, because I didn't think they were "good enough" to be "x x x", and I am only betting on those this week (as I think I managed to find a lot more of those than I normally do).

I was following it on "ESPN gamecast", and I think that the total got to 57 with about 7 minutes left in the 4th quarter.

----
Extra:

Not that you asked, but I still haven't looked to see if any "key players' " were out, as there was a sudden drop of 3-4 points on the total, closer### to kick-off (thanks to the post from unJon, I saw that the total went to about 53.5 with at least some 'books).

###: About an hour before the game, you could still get 56.5 or 57 (with the ones that I bet with).
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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Thanks for this post from:
ksdjdj
November 3rd, 2022 at 3:42:32 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

I think the Texans @ +14^^^ are good value*** (if I were to put up a number, I think they should be somewhere between +10.5 to +11).

^^^: I am not on yet, because the only 'book with that price at the moment doesn't open until after 10am "Australia Time" (about 2 hours).

***: Reminder, only posting the "x x x" ones this week.

My "betting plan": If I don't get on the Texans at +14 (or better) before the game, I will probably bet live on them at 3/4 time if they are behind by at least 17 points (because I think the Eagles may send in the "b-team" offense).

----
Also, I had another College Football bet (will add to the table later)

Oregon vs. Colorado Under 62.5 @ $1.92 - 3 units
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Got under 63. At -110. Go defense!!!
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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November 3rd, 2022 at 5:12:12 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

I think the Texans @ +14^^^ are good value*** (if I were to put up a number, I think they should be somewhere between +10.5 to +11).

^^^: I am not on yet, because the only 'book with that price at the moment doesn't open until after 10am "Australia Time" (about 2 hours).

***: Reminder, only posting the "x x x" ones this week.

My "betting plan": If I don't get on the Texans at +14 (or better) before the game, I will probably bet live on them at 3/4 time if they are behind by at least 17 points (because I think the Eagles may send in the "b-team" offense).
(snip)
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I didn't get on because my stomach is playing up badly for some reason (the Texans got to +14.0 @ $1.95, so I really would have liked to visit the "betting shop" and back them at that price).

Hopefully I am better by 3/4 time, if the Eagles are up by 17+ (so I can bet live).
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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November 3rd, 2022 at 7:27:03 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

Quote: ksdjdj

(snip)
My "betting plan": If I don't get on the Texans at +14 (or better) before the game, I will probably bet live on them at 3/4 time if they are behind by at least 17 points (because I think the Eagles may send in the "b-team" offense).
(snip)
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(snip)
Hopefully I am better by 3/4 time, if the Eagles are up by 17+ (so I can bet live).
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Even though I am feeling well enough to drive now, my "plan b" for the Texans is not going to happen (as the score is 21 - 17 at the end of the 3rd quarter).
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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November 3rd, 2022 at 11:50:15 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

Quote: ksdjdj

(snip)
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I didn't get on because my stomach is playing up badly for some reason (the Texans got to +14.0 @ $1.95, so I really would have liked to visit the "betting shop" and back them at that price).
(snip)
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Since I didn't get on, I was kinda hoping that the Texans would lose by more than 14 points, so I could make a "lame joke" (something like "I must've had a gut-feeling that the Texans weren't going to beat the spread").
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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November 4th, 2022 at 12:05:07 AM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

(snip)
Note 2: All are "first half x second half" doubles (except the first one)

Lobos @ $1.90 (+16.5) / 0.5 (units)

New Mexico Lobos x New Mexico Lobos @ $21 / 0.250
New Mexico Lobos x Draw @ $67 / 0.058
Utah State Aggies x Draw @ $46 / 0.083
Draw x Draw @ $101 / 0.039
Utah State Aggies x New Mexico Lobos @ $26 / 0.150
Draw x New Mexico Lobos @ $71 / 0.075
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I was going back through some of my posts, and I should have used "first half x full time result (not including over-time)", for the above list of bets (instead of "first half x second half" doubles).
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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Thanks for this post from:
ksdjdj
November 4th, 2022 at 4:55:04 AM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

Quote: ksdjdj

(snip)
Note 2: All are "first half x second half" doubles (except the first one)

Lobos @ $1.90 (+16.5) / 0.5 (units)

New Mexico Lobos x New Mexico Lobos @ $21 / 0.250
New Mexico Lobos x Draw @ $67 / 0.058
Utah State Aggies x Draw @ $46 / 0.083
Draw x Draw @ $101 / 0.039
Utah State Aggies x New Mexico Lobos @ $26 / 0.150
Draw x New Mexico Lobos @ $71 / 0.075
link to original post


I was going back through some of my posts, and I should have used "first half x full time result (not including over-time)", for the above list of bets (instead of "first half x second half" doubles).
link to original post



I had Texans +6.5 1st half/ +13.5 full time/ over 45.5! Thatís a skin of your teeth parlay! Plus Texans plus 14 as per your three star suggestion! You are the man!

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