NCAAF & NFL Grades / Results, etc

Quote: ksdjdj

Navy -2.5 @ -115 is about “x x”
I had on 2.7 units on them @ -135 ml


——
Sent by phone
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Quote: billryan

I took a flyer on Big Blue. $25 on the ML and $100 on the GMen, getting seven. With my track record, the Giants are doomed.
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Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: ksdjdj

(snip)
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(snip)
What are your picks for NFL today!? Quick, games start in 3 hours!
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Quote: ksdjdj

(snip)
(1.8 units Chargers' game Under 54.5 @ $1.93)
(snip)
... and have swapped the way they do the totals (used to be under on the left, and over on the right).
Anyway, long story short I am on the over 38.5...
(snip)
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Quote: ksdjdj

I like the Giants +4.5 @ $1.90 (~ -111) as an >>> x grade*** <<< not putting this in quotes from now on (if I can remember).

***: It is a Prime Time / Marquee Game, so I will probably wait until closer to the game (because then it will be a no vig market, for me).

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Extra info:

Mainly a table that shows the "Expected No. of Wins and Actual No. of Wins" (after 13 games played)

Games	----	Points	Points	Expected	Actual	Predicted No.	Actual No.	----
Played	Team	For	Against	Win %	Win %	of Wins	of Wins	Team
13	PHI	386	248	71.38%	92.31%	9.28	12	PHI
13	BUF	353	221	72.45%	76.92%	9.42	10	BUF
13	KC	384	298	62.94%	76.92%	8.18	10	KC
13	MIN	312	313	50.26%	76.92%	6.53	10	MIN
13	DAL	360	229	71.79%	76.92%	9.33	10	DAL
13	SF	317	197	72.75%	69.23%	9.46	9	SF
13	BAL	301	250	59.68%	69.23%	7.76	9	BAL
13	CIN	335	265	62.03%	69.23%	8.06	9	CIN
13	MIA	316	312	51.07%	61.54%	6.64	8	MIA
13	WSH	253	256	49.83%	57.69%	6.48	7.5	WSH
13	NYG	267	300	44.57%	57.69%	5.79	7.5	NYG
13	TEN	241	276	43.63%	53.85%	5.67	7	TEN
13	LAC	295	326	45.40%	53.85%	5.90	7	LAC
13	NYJ	264	243	54.59%	53.85%	7.10	7	NYJ
13	SEA	342	334	51.62%	53.85%	6.71	7	SEA
13	NE	276	239	57.63%	53.85%	7.49	7	NE
13	TB	224	254	44.12%	46.15%	5.74	6	TB
13	DET	349	347	50.71%	46.15%	6.59	6	DET
13	GB	263	302	43.49%	38.46%	5.65	5	GB
13	JAX	294	294	50.42%	38.46%	6.55	5	JAX
13	LV	308	313	49.61%	38.46%	6.45	5	LV
13	CAR	260	290	44.94%	38.46%	5.84	5	CAR
13	ATL	288	312	46.40%	38.46%	6.03	5	ATL
13	CLE	300	323	46.70%	38.46%	6.07	5	CLE
13	PIT	227	293	37.83%	38.46%	4.92	5	PIT
13	IND	209	298	33.25%	34.62%	4.32	4.5	IND
13	ARI	277	348	39.11%	30.77%	5.08	4	ARI
13	NO	265	297	44.70%	30.77%	5.81	4	NO
13	LAR	218	296	35.46%	30.77%	4.61	4	LAR
13	DEN	194	238	40.26%	23.08%	5.23	3	DEN
13	CHI	270	333	40.00%	23.08%	5.20	3	CHI
13	HOU	211	314	31.37%	11.54%	4.08	1.5	HOU

Important: I haven't adjusted these results to any "strength of schedule" yet, so it is just the "raw data".

Note 1: If any figure in the "Actual No. of Wins" ends in 0.5, then that just means that they had an "odd number of tied games" (all of those have teams have only tied once, so far this season).

Note 2: I am just using the info on the standings page on ESPN (feel free to check for errors, if you like).

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How to use the above table to work out how to get a "ball-park estimated spread" for a game,
1) Find two teams that are playing each other this week
2) Go to the column "Expected win %" and find the figure for each team.
3) Multiply the above figures by 16.
4) Subtract the bigger figure from the smaller figure.
5a) Multiply that figure by 2 (that will be the 'dogs' "estimated spread")
5b) To work out the "estimated spread" for the favorite, just put a "- " in front of the figure.
6) Optional: Adjust for any home field advantage (I usually set this between 0 and 1 , but you can use any figure you think is a good estimated).

Important 1: This method is based on the "old"16 game regular season, so that is why step 3 is to "Multiply ... by 16".

Important 2 (but obvious): The team with the bigger "Expected win %" will always be the favorite (before making any adjustments, at least).

Important 2: This will just get you a "ball park" estimate, as it doesn't take into account things like "strength of schedule", "key injuries", "eliminate teams, tanking for draft picks^^^ ",and any other factors you think will need to make an adjustment for.

^^^: Any teams that have been eliminated from the playoffs may be subject to this. Though I personally don't believe in it strongly enough to account for it in my own estimates (I find this a very hard area to account for, so if you do use this, then it is just another adjustment you have to make to the "ball-park estimate").

Hypothetical Example using the above method ("Strongest team" vs "weakest team"):

1) Pretend SF is playing HOU this week, whether they are or aren't (I haven't checked)
2) SF = 72.75%, and HOU = 31.37%, "Expected win %"
3) SF = 11.64, and HOU = 5.02
4) 11.64 - 5.02 = 6.62.
5a) 6.62 x 2 = 13.24 = +13.24
5b) -13.24
6) I will use 0 for this game, since it is just a "hypothetical game".

Therefore, the "ball-park estimate" for SF should have them as a 13 to 13.5 point favorite when playing against HOU, (using the above figures).

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Other:
Have to go to work now, post has not been checked for errors.
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Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: ksdjdj

I like the Giants +4.5 @ $1.90 (~ -111) as an >>> x grade*** <<< not putting this in quotes from now on (if I can remember).

***: It is a Prime Time / Marquee Game, so I will probably wait until closer to the game (because then it will be a no vig market, for me).
(snip)
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So for ‘prime time’ games you get to bet ‘vig free’? Is there a $ limit? I often get ‘+110 instead of -110’ offers but limit is sometimes$10, sometimes $25.
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Quote: ksdjdj

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: ksdjdj

I like the Giants +4.5 @ $1.90 (~ -111) as an >>> x grade*** <<< not putting this in quotes from now on (if I can remember).

***: It is a Prime Time / Marquee Game, so I will probably wait until closer to the game (because then it will be a no vig market, for me).
(snip)
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So for ‘prime time’ games you get to bet ‘vig free’? Is there a $ limit? (snip)
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Seemingly a "high ceiling" for the last lot of bets', as I think I managed to get $15k+ down on one side at the "no vig odds".

Note: I would guess that I won't get that for much longer, because they are already limiting me to win about $5k on the "alt odds markets". (snip)
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Quote: DRich

Two weeks ago USC was assumed to be in the college football playoffs as one of the four best teams. Today they are a 2 point favorite over Tulane, How far can you fall? I know, Tulane is decent, they beat Kansas State but did lose to that powerhouse of Southern Mississippi.
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Quote: DRich

Two weeks ago USC was assumed to be in the college football playoffs as one of the four best teams. Today they are a 2 point favorite over Tulane, How far can you fall? I know, Tulane is decent, they beat Kansas State but did lose to that powerhouse of Southern Mississippi.
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Quote: ksdjdj

College Bowl Grades (subject to change, especially since some of them are are close to two weeks away):

Note 1: All odds are $1.90 / ~ -111 , unless otherwise stated

Note 2 (Reminder): x = 2 units, xx = 2.5 (NA, at this time), xxx = 3 units, unless otherwise stated.

--------
Game Totals:
Cinci / Louisville: Over 39 = x

-----
Spreads (ATS):
UTSA / Troy: Troy +1.5 = xxx (2.8 units)
Florida / Oregon St: Florida +10 = xxx

---
Not on these games' yet, as I am waiting to see how I go in the earlier games first (so that I don't tie-up too much of my funds).

Note: These are my planned bets (since I am not on, ATM)

E. Michigan / SJS : Under 54 = xx (2.7 units)
'Bama / K State: Over 54 = x
Mississippi St / Illinois: Over 46= xx (2.7 units)

Baylor / Air Force: Air Force +5.5 = xx (2.7 units)
C. Carolina / E. Carolina: C. Carolina +8.5 = x
Maryland / NC State: NC State +2 = xxx

----
Important:
Not on this game yet, as I think the line may change in my favor (?)
SMU / BYU: BYU +4 = xxx (2.8 units)
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Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: DRich

Two weeks ago USC was assumed to be in the college football playoffs as one of the four best teams. Today they are a 2 point favorite over Tulane, How far can you fall? I know, Tulane is decent, they beat Kansas State but did lose to that powerhouse of Southern Mississippi.
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I haven’t looked, but how many USC starters are not going to play due to not wanting to risk injury before NFL draft or now ‘the transfer portal’. Caleb Williams is injured but at least now he says he will be playing. I think ‘insiders’ will be able to clean up with the info on who won’t be playing before that info goes public.
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Quote: ksdjdj

(snip)
Spreads (ATS):
UTSA / Troy: Troy +1.5 = xxx (2.8 units)
(snip)
Not on this game yet, as I think the line may change in my favor (?)
SMU / BYU: BYU +4 = xxx (2.8 units)
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Quote: billryan

Quote: DRich

Two weeks ago USC was assumed to be in the college football playoffs as one of the four best teams. Today they are a 2 point favorite over Tulane, How far can you fall? I know, Tulane is decent, they beat Kansas State but did lose to that powerhouse of Southern Mississippi.
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Perhaps the Trojan's motivations aren't so strong. As you said, two weeks ago they were preparing to play for a National Title. Now they are playing Tulane.
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Quote: DRich

Quote: billryan

Quote: DRich

Two weeks ago USC was assumed to be in the college football playoffs as one of the four best teams. Today they are a 2 point favorite over Tulane, How far can you fall? I know, Tulane is decent, they beat Kansas State but did lose to that powerhouse of Southern Mississippi.
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Perhaps the Trojan's motivations aren't so strong. As you said, two weeks ago they were preparing to play for a National Title. Now they are playing Tulane.
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Normally these are the exact situations that I am looking for in bowl games. I want a team that is disappointed to be playing in a game against a smaller team trying to prove something.

I agree 100%. USC has no motivation.
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Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: DRich

Quote: billryan

Quote: DRich

Two weeks ago USC was assumed to be in the college football playoffs as one of the four best teams. Today they are a 2 point favorite over Tulane, How far can you fall? I know, Tulane is decent, they beat Kansas State but did lose to that powerhouse of Southern Mississippi.
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Perhaps the Trojan's motivations aren't so strong. As you said, two weeks ago they were preparing to play for a National Title. Now they are playing Tulane.
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Normally these are the exact situations that I am looking for in bowl games. I want a team that is disappointed to be playing in a game against a smaller team trying to prove something.

I agree 100%. USC has no motivation.
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Please name one player on USC that will not be motivated to play as hard as he can? You don’t think their left cornerback isn’t going to run his ass off stay with Tulane’s best receiver? That USC’s RB doesn’t want to add his name to the list of USC RBs that had 100 yard games in a Bowl?

I think the ‘not motivated’ trope is pure bullshit. Kind of like the ‘trap game’ bullshit. If Philly loses this week it’s because it was a ‘trap game’. If Philly wins this week it wasn’t a trap game.

I DO agree that certain players may not play in a lower bowl game but would have played in a playoff game. The presence or lack thereof of important players can of course make a difference.
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Quote: DRich

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: DRich

Quote: billryan

Quote: DRich

Two weeks ago USC was assumed to be in the college football playoffs as one of the four best teams. Today they are a 2 point favorite over Tulane, How far can you fall? I know, Tulane is decent, they beat Kansas State but did lose to that powerhouse of Southern Mississippi.
link to original post

Perhaps the Trojan's motivations aren't so strong. As you said, two weeks ago they were preparing to play for a National Title. Now they are playing Tulane.
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Normally these are the exact situations that I am looking for in bowl games. I want a team that is disappointed to be playing in a game against a smaller team trying to prove something.

I agree 100%. USC has no motivation.
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Please name one player on USC that will not be motivated to play as hard as he can? You don’t think their left cornerback isn’t going to run his ass off stay with Tulane’s best receiver? That USC’s RB doesn’t want to add his name to the list of USC RBs that had 100 yard games in a Bowl?



I think the ‘not motivated’ trope is pure bullshit. Kind of like the ‘trap game’ bullshit. If Philly loses this week it’s because it was a ‘trap game’. If Philly wins this week it wasn’t a trap game.

I DO agree that certain players may not play in a lower bowl game but would have played in a playoff game. The presence or lack thereof of important players can of course make a difference.
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I guess I should say less motivated. Will the players put in as much effort in the month of practices before the game against Tulane as they would if they were playing Georgia for a chance at a national championship? My guess is no.
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Quote: billryan

Quote: DRich

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: DRich

Quote: billryan

Quote: DRich

Two weeks ago USC was assumed to be in the college football playoffs as one of the four best teams. Today they are a 2 point favorite over Tulane, How far can you fall? I know, Tulane is decent, they beat Kansas State but did lose to that powerhouse of Southern Mississippi.
link to original post

Perhaps the Trojan's motivations aren't so strong. As you said, two weeks ago they were preparing to play for a National Title. Now they are playing Tulane.
link to original post

Normally these are the exact situations that I am looking for in bowl games. I want a team that is disappointed to be playing in a game against a smaller team trying to prove something.

I agree 100%. USC has no motivation.
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Please name one player on USC that will not be motivated to play as hard as he can? You don’t think their left cornerback isn’t going to run his ass off stay with Tulane’s best receiver? That USC’s RB doesn’t want to add his name to the list of USC RBs that had 100 yard games in a Bowl?



I think the ‘not motivated’ trope is pure bullshit. Kind of like the ‘trap game’ bullshit. If Philly loses this week it’s because it was a ‘trap game’. If Philly wins this week it wasn’t a trap game.

I DO agree that certain players may not play in a lower bowl game but would have played in a playoff game. The presence or lack thereof of important players can of course make a difference.
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I guess I should say less motivated. Will the players put in as much effort in the month of practices before the game against Tulane as they would if they were playing Georgia for a chance at a national championship? My guess is no.
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Much less motivation, and you can bet practices weren't nearly as intense. The coaching staff won't be developing new plays for a minor bowl, and the players will spend more time sightseeing before the game. It's a meaningless exhibition for USC, but a national showcase for their opponents.
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Quote: ksdjdj

College Bowl Grades (subject to change, especially since some of them are are close to two weeks away):

Note 1: All odds are $1.90 / ~ -111 , unless otherwise stated

Note 2 (Reminder): x = 2 units, xx = 2.5 (NA, at this time), xxx = 3 units, unless otherwise stated.

--------
Game Totals:
Cinci / Louisville: Over 39 = x

-----
Spreads (ATS):
UTSA / Troy: Troy +1.5 = xxx (2.8 units)
Florida / Oregon St: Florida +10 = xxx

---
Not on these games' yet, as I am waiting to see how I go in the earlier games first (so that I don't tie-up too much of my funds).

Note: These are my planned bets (since I am not on, ATM)

E. Michigan / SJS : Under 54 = xx (2.7 units)
'Bama / K State: Over 54 = x
Mississippi St / Illinois: Over 46= xx (2.7 units)

Baylor / Air Force: Air Force +5.5 = xx (2.7 units)
C. Carolina / E. Carolina: C. Carolina +8.5 = x
Maryland / NC State: NC State +2 = xxx

----
Important:
Not on this game yet, as I think the line may change in my favor (?)
SMU / BYU: BYU +4 = xxx (2.8 units)
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Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: ksdjdj

College Bowl Grades (subject to change, especially since some of them are are close to two weeks away):

Note 1: All odds are $1.90 / ~ -111 , unless otherwise stated

Note 2 (Reminder): x = 2 units, xx = 2.5 (NA, at this time), xxx = 3 units, unless otherwise stated.

--------
Game Totals:
Cinci / Louisville: Over 39 = x

-----
Spreads (ATS):
UTSA / Troy: Troy +1.5 = xxx (2.8 units)
Florida / Oregon St: Florida +10 = xxx

---
Not on these games' yet, as I am waiting to see how I go in the earlier games first (so that I don't tie-up too much of my funds).

Note: These are my planned bets (since I am not on, ATM)

E. Michigan / SJS : Under 54 = xx (2.7 units)
'Bama / K State: Over 54 = x
Mississippi St / Illinois: Over 46= xx (2.7 units)

Baylor / Air Force: Air Force +5.5 = xx (2.7 units)
C. Carolina / E. Carolina: C. Carolina +8.5 = x
Maryland / NC State: NC State +2 = xxx

----
Important:
Not on this game yet, as I think the line may change in my favor (?)
SMU / BYU: BYU +4 = xxx (2.8 units)
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Florida only gets 8 now.

I went with you on EMU under 54.5
And BYU +4.5
Both 1/2 point better than you got.
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Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: ksdjdj

Quote: ksdjdj

(snip)
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(snip)
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(snip)
... Next is Bills. This one is just ML.
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Quote: ksdjdj

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: ksdjdj

Quote: ksdjdj

(snip)
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(snip)
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(snip)
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(snip)
Update (Made before 1630, Pac Time):
(snip)..."statistically lower scoring due to snowy/windy/cold weather"... (snip)
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Quote: ksdjdj

These are grade xxx:
Bengals (-9.5): 1 unit @ +215
Bengals (-10.5): 1 unit @ +250
(snip)
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Quote: ksdjdj

xxx / 3 units Giants +4.5 @ +100
(snip)
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Quote: ksdjdj

College Bowl Grades (subject to change, especially since some of them are are close to two weeks away):

Note 1: All odds are $1.90 / ~ -111 , unless otherwise stated

Note 2 (Reminder): x = 2 units, xx = 2.5 (NA, at this time), xxx = 3 units, unless otherwise stated.

--------
Game Totals:
Cinci / Louisville: Over 39 = x

-----
Spreads (ATS):
UTSA / Troy: Troy +1.5 = xxx (2.8 units)
Florida / Oregon St: Florida +10 = xxx

---
Not on these games' yet, as I am waiting to see how I go in the earlier games first (so that I don't tie-up too much of my funds).

Note: These are my planned bets (since I am not on, ATM)

E. Michigan / SJS : Under 54 = xx (2.7 units)
'Bama / K State: Over 54 = x
Mississippi St / Illinois: Over 46= xx (2.7 units)

Baylor / Air Force: Air Force +5.5 = xx (2.7 units)
C. Carolina / E. Carolina: C. Carolina +8.5 = x
Maryland / NC State: NC State +2 = xxx

----
Important:
Not on this game yet, as I think the line may change in my favor (?)
SMU / BYU: BYU +4 = xxx (2.8 units)
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Quote: ksdjdj

(snip)
###: I would prefer to wait and see if the Rams' are down 17+ points at half time (or even a bit into the 2nd half) and then back them at +20.5 or higher (I think this will be roughly xx if I can get the Rams' +20.5, if the above or similar occurs).
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Quote: SOOPOO

Do you have any picks on the 3 college games today? I am already in on EMU under 54.5. The line is now 53. I have 4 profit boosts I need to use!
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Quote: DRich

Quote: SOOPOO

Do you have any picks on the 3 college games today? I am already in on EMU under 54.5. The line is now 53. I have 4 profit boosts I need to use!
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I really like San Jose -4.
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Quote: DRich

Quote: SOOPOO

Do you have any picks on the 3 college games today? I am already in on EMU under 54.5. The line is now 53. I have 4 profit boosts I need to use!
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I really like San Jose -4.
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Quote: ksdjdj

Quote: DRich

Quote: SOOPOO

Do you have any picks on the 3 college games today? I am already in on EMU under 54.5. The line is now 53. I have 4 profit boosts I need to use!
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I really like San Jose -4.
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. 2 units Toledo over 51.5 @ $1.90 (x)
. 2.1 units San Jose -3.5 @ $1.85 (x) - spread changed to -4.5 as I was having the bet, so I am not on : (
. 2.5 units San Jose ML @ $1.53 / ~ -190 (x) - would have preferred the -3.5 @ $1.85, though.

Note: The above are in bold, so that I know that I already had my bets on these games.

. Also, a $100 / "for fun bet" on Liberty +3.5 @ $1.90***

***: I originally liked them as ~x, but a site that I use to track the "smart money" (amongst other things) suggests that the they are betting on Toledo in that game (so up to you)?

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Other:
I can only find 2 college games today ?
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Quote: SOOPOO

I took your advice. Go San Jose St!
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Quote: DRich

Quote: SOOPOO

I took your advice. Go San Jose St!
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After the Eagles stopped them on the one yard line in the 2nd quarter it seems the momentum has switched and the Eagles are playing better.
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