Sports betting chatter
Quote: AxelWolfIt's over... prob, gg first match. I bet $500 let's hope she finishes it in the 3rd
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Was this referring to the Horth UFC fight where the Canadian was gifted the split decision?
I like the Cardinals (5-4) +1.5 at home over the Jets (3-6)
Aaron Rodgers is not what he used to be
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I needed to get some free play bets in and already bet the other side of that randomly. Don't ask me exactly how much 22.00 m₿ is I think it's around $1,800Quote: lilredrooster.
I like the Cardinals (5-4) +1.5 at home over the Jets (3-6)
Aaron Rodgers is not what he used to be
.
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🥺🥺🥺🥺🥺🥺🥺🥺🥺🥺🥺🥺🥺🥺🥺🥺
THU 11/7
11:31 PM Spread
Details
Football - 281 New York Jets -1½ -110 for Game
(fp)22.00 m₿
20.00 m₿
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I have this as well
Ticket#
Accepted Date
Type
Details
Risk
Win
11/7
11:33 PMS spread
Details
Football - 285 Miami Dolphins +1 -110 for Game
(fp) 17.00 m₿
15.45455 m₿
posting early because I think the line might move to a worse deal
I like the Pack -5.5 over the Bears
the Bears are in a state of dysfunction - they just fired their offensive coordinator and their rookie qb is struggling
last weekend they were crushed by the lowly Patriots and the weekend before that they were crushed by even more by the not so lowly Cardinals
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Quote: lilredrooster.
posting early because I think the line might move to a worse deal
I like the Pack -5.5 over the Bears
the Bears are in a state of dysfunction - they just fired their offensive coordinator and their rookie qb is struggling
last weekend they were crushed by the lowly Patriots and the weekend before that they were crushed by even more by the not so lowly Cardinals
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Think this might be a market overreaction line personally. But let’s see.
Currently though I still see some where you get bonus money* to bet with 'win or lose' the initiating bet, which may be half the amount bet or sometimes the full amount. Getting bonus money 'win or lose' makes it +EV even if it is only half, and very much +EV if it is the full amount [assuming the initiating bet isn't a sucker bet]
The sites I think count on most of the players betting these wrong, too often choosing the favorite, paying less than even money, in order to at least get some of their money back on a loss. The Wizard has made it clear that the more you go in the opposite direction the more +EV you get, and that applies to both the initiating and the bonus bet. I have written before that for me there has to be a limit in order to emotionally survive the losing streaks, so I tend to pick between +200 and +300 for the bets
I like soccer tie bets for bonus bets, and recently have done even better with college basketball money line bets. I suspect the oddsmakers don't have a good grasp on how to really set the odds in most games, especially early season, and upsets occur at a much higher rate. This makes betting underdogs in the up to +300 range work even better ... at least I can say I have done better with them than anything else for two years now
disclaimer: I do not view making these same bets as a +EV thing under other circumstances, such as a normal bet
* the type where you get the winnings but the winnings only, the amount bet is not returned with it
Just curious are you talking about offshore books or state/country-regulated?Quote: odiousgambitthe current pattern that I see is the online sports betting sites will wait till a big season like the NFL starts to buttress up their offers for new players; and their offers for current players as well. As the season goes on, the offers dwindle. YMMV
Currently though I still see some where you get bonus money* to bet with 'win or lose' the initiating bet, which may be half the amount bet or sometimes the full amount. Getting bonus money 'win or lose' makes it +EV even if it is only half, and very much +EV if it is the full amount [assuming the initiating bet isn't a sucker bet]
The sites I think count on most of the players betting these wrong, too often choosing the favorite, paying less than even money, in order to at least get some of their money back on a loss. The Wizard has made it clear that the more you go in the opposite direction the more +EV you get, and that applies to both the initiating and the bonus bet. I have written before that for me there has to be a limit in order to emotionally survive the losing streaks, so I tend to pick between +200 and +300 for the bets
I like soccer tie bets for bonus bets, and recently have done even better with college basketball money line bets. I suspect the oddsmakers don't have a good grasp on how to really set the odds in most games, especially early season, and upsets occur at a much higher rate. This makes betting underdogs in the up to +300 range work even better ... at least I can say I have done better with them than anything else for two years now
disclaimer: I do not view making these same bets as a +EV thing under other circumstances, such as a normal bet
* the type where you get the winnings but the winnings only, the amount bet is not returned with it
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If you're talking about offshore do you mind sharing some of the places you use? I've recently started using more of the less-known offshore places.
I had an agent(he is super pushy and I don't quite trust his suggestions) offer me a no-deposit $250 worth of free play with fairly low wagering at a Sportsbook and casino I had never even heard of before.
I was able to use the free play in both the casino and sports betting. I turned that $250 free play into a few thousand betting Sports and playing some slots. I wasn't sure if I was going to get paid or not, but it didn't matter since it was free free play in the first place. To my surprise, I was able to cash out successfully.
They then offered me some generous deposit bonuses. I used approximately $1,000 of the $2,000 I had previously made and promptly ran my account up to about $8,000 on Sports and slots. I put in some total ploppy action and gave a little bit back as I was cashing out between $800 and 1,000 at a time. They have paid me almost everything thus far. I still have a little bit left in the casino and some pending bets. They have now limited me to winning $100 maximum on Sports bets.
Perhaps I'll post up some decent hit slot porn screenshots.
Virginia sportsbetting sites. Bet365, Betrivers, Draftkings. Currently Bet365 getting most of my action.Quote: AxelWolfJust curious are you talking about offshore books or state/country-regulated?
we're ready!Quote:Perhaps I'll post up some decent hit slot porn screenshots.
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I think I might place a few sheckles on the Zips -10.
I think I am also favoring the Broncos -6.5 tonight.
Both teams fired their coaches after the game.
YesQuote: unJonQuote: AxelWolfIt's over... prob, gg first match. I bet $500 let's hope she finishes it in the 3rd
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Was this referring to the Horth UFC fight where the Canadian was gifted the split decision?
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I posed a few from yesterday over in Nathans corner, with an explanation of why I was playing.Quote: odiousgambitVirginia sportsbetting sites. Bet365, Betrivers, Draftkings. Currently Bet365 getting most of my action.Quote: AxelWolfJust curious are you talking about offshore books or state/country-regulated?
we're ready!Quote:Perhaps I'll post up some decent hit slot porn screenshots.
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finally worked out some math myself, there could be mistakes
in particular I wrote "What about +EV if you get win or lose second chance bet?...Is it as simple as adding the EVs of the two phases together?" I would like to know I'm right about that , thanks
of course any other input appreciated too. I caught one error already
blog is titled 'Second Chance Parlay Betting'
You will win 1/4 of the time. Lose 3/4 of the time. So for 4 bets you win $26.40, lose $30, so overall loss of $3.60, or $0.90 per bet.
The 3/4 of the time you lost you get a ‘free bet’ of $10. You make the same two leg parlay at +264. You win that 1/4 of the time, but only get the $26.40 back, not the $10 from the free bet. So $26.40 divided by 4 is $6.60. So the free bet is worth $6.60, but you only get it when you lost the original bet, so add $4.95 to your initial EV.
Remember, you lost $0.90 per $10 bet without the offer. The offer gives you $4.95 per $10 bet. Total EV is +$4.05.
The above is just a simple example. You can bump the EV by taking longer odds bets. Plus a few other tweaks.
If you want zero variance, with 4 separate accounts you can lock in that $4.05.
my problem with 3 leg parlays isn't that I don't get paid enough on a win, it's that I can't seem to win them at all! [exaggeration but I'm running bad on them all the time]
as far as "do you just add the EVs together?" , I can say this:
If you were given a second chance, win or lose, on betting in Craps on a 7 will roll next and getting the standard 4:1 normally awful payoff, you would absolutely just add the EVs of the two bets together. [and you'd kill the house]. For some reason I'm confident of that but less confident in what I posted
what if you got a *win or lose* second chance in craps with a 7 next roll bet but only had half your initial bet as a freebet on that winnings-only basis?
1/6*4-5/6*1 = -1/6 = -0.1667 EV for first phase [in units]
1/6*2-5/6*zero= 0.333 EV for second phase
you definitely add those EVs together and I'll just let everybody do that
We enjoy your picks so don't be shy if you have any.Quote: lilredrooster
That goes for everyone. My picks may just be flipping coins or attempting to look for "good lines"
So If someone's picks seem logical to me, I'll take a shot. I don't care if I win lose or draw since I have to get rollover action in regardless.
I could only find one road dog getting -4.5 or less this weekend 😪
Right now I have the over on Vikings vs Bears.
I think checking someone else's math is a pretty good form of torture, so I'm not sure anyone checked it, however Soopoo's input helped a lot towards my confidence it is right.
I was feeling like my efforts were possible just quixotic fallacy ... I really wanted to check that math
WOWOLFBs ?... I just can't say no to those
And I know if I'll only be true
To this glorious quest
That my heart will lie peaceful and calm
When I'm laid to my rest
When the site says bye to my quest
Indiana vs. Notre Dame (-.7.5)
SMU vs. Penn State(-9.5)
Clemson vs. Texas (-10)
Tennessee vs. Ohio State (-7)
I am betting all of the underdogs
Quote: billryanI'm glad SMU got in over Bama. It was the right decision, but I must question why the ACC champion gets an automatic bid.
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Technically, it doesn't. The five highest ranked conference champions automatically get in. If Army would have ended up ranked higher than Clemson, it would have been in and Clemson out.
There is already talk of changing the rules for next year so that the four highest ranked teams, and not necessarily four conference champions, get the four byes; however, it would require a unanimous vote of the Board of Managers (right now, it consists of the nine conference commissioners, plus the Pac-12 commissioner and Notre Dame's athletic director) to make a change like this.
Quote: ThatDonGuyQuote: billryanI'm glad SMU got in over Bama. It was the right decision, but I must question why the ACC champion gets an automatic bid.
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Technically, it doesn't. The five highest ranked conference champions automatically get in. If Army would have ended up ranked higher than Clemson, it would have been in and Clemson out.
There is already talk of changing the rules for next year so that the four highest ranked teams, and not necessarily four conference champions, get the four byes; however, it would require a unanimous vote of the Board of Managers (right now, it consists of the nine conference commissioners, plus the Pac-12 commissioner and Notre Dame's athletic director) to make a change like this.
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It needs some fine-tuning, but it is a work in progress. What I'm afraid of is a reversal to the days when schools scheduled walkover games to pad their records. Did Indiana beat a top-twenty team this year? Army's only loss was to a team hosting a first-round game, but they got no consideration.
I speculated that the under might be a good bet in the NCAAB when the away team is the fave
the away team is then expected to show good scoring but they're shooting at baskets (only in college, not in the NBA) that they are very often not very familiar with
the hoops and backboards will have a different look - I'm referring to the lighting and the background - and their shooting is not likely to be as sharp as it is on their home court
so, if when the total is posted if they just averaged the 2 team's points without considering home and away there might be an edge in betting the under
using covers.com I looked at the last 100 NCAAB games in which the away team was favored
when the away team is the fave the under won going 56-44 for an edge of about 6.9%
I'm well aware that this is too small a no. of games to say definitively that there is an edge to be had
but I think it quite possible that the under is a very good bet when the away team is favored in the NCAAB
if somebody wants to scan the data for 500 games to get a clearer picture that would be great
I've done my share - time to take a break
.
Good stuff. Thanks for the time and effort you already put into this.Quote: lilredrooster.
I speculated that the under might be a good bet in the NCAAB when the away team is the fave
the away team is then expected to show good scoring but they're shooting at baskets (only in college, not in the NBA) that they are very often not very familiar with
the hoops and backboards will have a different look - I'm referring to the lighting and the background - and their shooting is not likely to be as sharp as it is on their home court
so, if when the total is posted if they just averaged the 2 team's points without considering home and away there might be an edge in betting the under
using covers.com I looked at the last 100 NCAAB games in which the away team was favored
when the away team is the fave the under won going 56-44 for an edge of about 6.9%
I'm well aware that this is too small a no. of games to say definitively that there is an edge to be had
but I think it quite possible that the under is a very good bet when the away team is favored in the NCAAB
if somebody wants to scan the data for 500 games to get a clearer picture that would be great
I've done my share - time to take a break
.
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Quote: lilredrooster.
I speculated that the under might be a good bet in the NCAAB when the away team is the fave
the away team is then expected to show good scoring but they're shooting at baskets (only in college, not in the NBA) that they are very often not very familiar with
the hoops and backboards will have a different look - I'm referring to the lighting and the background - and their shooting is not likely to be as sharp as it is on their home court
so, if when the total is posted if they just averaged the 2 team's points without considering home and away there might be an edge in betting the under
using covers.com I looked at the last 100 NCAAB games in which the away team was favored
when the away team is the fave the under won going 56-44 for an edge of about 6.9%
I'm well aware that this is too small a no. of games to say definitively that there is an edge to be had
but I think it quite possible that the under is a very good bet when the away team is favored in the NCAAB
if somebody wants to scan the data for 500 games to get a clearer picture that would be great
I've done my share - time to take a break
.
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There are 24 NCAA men’s BBall games I can bet on tonight at Hard Rock. I am placing an under bet on ALL of the games that meet your criteria. (That’s 2 of the 24 games). This time of year the ‘power’ schools tend to invite lower echelon schools to their barn for an easy win.
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: lilredrooster.
I speculated that the under might be a good bet in the NCAAB when the away team is the fave
the away team is then expected to show good scoring but they're shooting at baskets (only in college, not in the NBA) that they are very often not very familiar with
the hoops and backboards will have a different look - I'm referring to the lighting and the background - and their shooting is not likely to be as sharp as it is on their home court
so, if when the total is posted if they just averaged the 2 team's points without considering home and away there might be an edge in betting the under
using covers.com I looked at the last 100 NCAAB games in which the away team was favored
when the away team is the fave the under won going 56-44 for an edge of about 6.9%
I'm well aware that this is too small a no. of games to say definitively that there is an edge to be had
but I think it quite possible that the under is a very good bet when the away team is favored in the NCAAB
if somebody wants to scan the data for 500 games to get a clearer picture that would be great
I've done my share - time to take a break
.
link to original post
There are 24 NCAA men’s BBall games I can bet on tonight at Hard Rock. I am placing an under bet on ALL of the games that meet your criteria. (That’s 2 of the 24 games). This time of year the ‘power’ schools tend to invite lower echelon schools to their barn for an easy win.
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Both games were over by A LOT! (One was OT). That’s $2 I’ll never get back….
I’ll try it again tomorrow before I give up!
Hard Rock has been giving me boatloads of profit boosts every day. 30% usually, but some 50% as well. Helping me pay for furniture in new house!
For those who like to fade me…. I am taking the Rams +2.5 on a bunch of parlays.
I had an offer on ping pong (table tennis for the high falootin). I’m wondering what the total action is on a single table tennis match?
Quote: SOOPOO
I had an offer on ping pong (table tennis for the high falootin). I’m wondering what the total action is on a single table tennis match?
The sum may be the total of your bets and mine.
Quote: DRichI am looking forward to the South Dakota football game today. They are layin 5.5 to UC Davis but on paper it look like a great matchup. I don't think I will be betting it, just watching it.
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There is only one game to watch today, at noon PST.
Quote: billryanQuote: DRichI am looking forward to the South Dakota football game today. They are layin 5.5 to UC Davis but on paper it look like a great matchup. I don't think I will be betting it, just watching it.
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There is only one game to watch today, at noon PST.
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No, there are lots of games. Although I admire the kids that go to service academy's their size limitations kind of hurt them. I would still like to see David Robinson in a submarine.
Quote: DRichI have a small bet on the Dukes of James Madison tonight against the Hilltoppers of Western Kentucky.
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Good bet. Lucky late cover!
My month+ in Florida I hit my guesstimate +EV of $10 a day to the Tee. Plus around $400.
Back in NY. Lots of profit boosts and free bets to use! Plus just deposited $500 on BetMGM which turns into $750 with just 1x playthrough. If I wanted to I could easily find $500 in +EV bets over the playthrough required period.
I think I’m going to sign up for a 6th NY book, ESPN BET.
My favorite season long bet was Josh Allen over 485 yards rushing. He has 484 with 3 games to go….
Quote: SOOPOO
Good bet. Lucky late cover!
More lucky than good.
Fortunately JM was able to dominate on the ground because WKY was much better passing.
Hard Rock had a promo for Chargers -6.5 for +240. Sounded good to me.
Quote: DRichDicker the kicker did something for the Chargers that hasn't been done in the NFL since 1976. He converted a free kick after a punt interreference call with no time on the clock. The last kicker to do it was Ray Wersching also a Charger.
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Didn't Doug Flutie do a dropkick?
Last night's final Jeopardy question- Which team played in the Superbowl before Neal Armstrong walked on the moon and has not been back since? Unbelievably, all the contestants blew it.
There were only three SBs before armstrongs trip.
Quote: billryan
Didn't Doug Flutie do a dropkick?
Last night's final Jeopardy question- Which team played in the Superbowl before Neal Armstrong walked on the moon and has not been back since? Unbelievably, all the contestants blew it.
There were only three SBs before armstrongs trip.
Yes, Flutie did a drop kick for that Pats in 2021 I believe. Prior to that I believe the last one was before WW2.
Indiana vs Notre Dame (-7) in South Bend. I am assuming it will be cold there. Both teams are relatively untested this year. ND has the bigger players and might dominate at the line. Indiana has the more interesting offense. I don't know what to expect. Hopefully, just a good game.
I did make a bet on Indiana +8 but I don't love it.
Quote: DRichCollege football playoff starts tonight with what I hope is a very good game.
Indiana vs Notre Dame (-7) in South Bend. I am assuming it will be cold there. Both teams are relatively untested this year. ND has the bigger players and might dominate at the line. Indiana has the more interesting offense. I don't know what to expect. Hopefully, just a good game.
I did make a bet on Indiana +8 but I don't love it.
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A home bowl game must be a dream come true for ND fans. I heard the airports around South Bend couldn't handle the amount of private planes wanting to take in the game.
It's more than thirty years since the two In-state rivals met on the gridiron,
I'm not sure Indiana deserved its spot in this series, and I think it's players will have something to prove.
Quote: billryan
A home bowl game must be a dream come true for ND fans. I heard the airports around South Bend couldn't handle the amount of private planes wanting to take in the game.
I don't believe it is a bowl game but still a huge event for the Catholics.
That was a dominate performance by Notre Dame and the score is not indicative of how badly Indiana was manhandled.
Who'd have thought a team that lost to Northern Illinois would compete for the National title?
Indiana hasn't beaten ND in South Bend since 1896, and no, that is not a typo.
Clemson (+14.5 +105) vs Texas
Montana State (-8) vs South Dakota
Tennessee (+7.5) vs Ohio State
SMU (+8.5) vs Penn State
Hopefully I can avoid an 0-4 day.
SMU was given the death sentence. It got better.
