Sports betting chatter

Quote: AxelWolf

It's over... prob, gg first match. I bet $500 let's hope she finishes it in the 3rd
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Was this referring to the Horth UFC fight where the Canadian was gifted the split decision?

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I like the Cardinals (5-4) +1.5 at home over the Jets (3-6)

Aaron Rodgers is not what he used to be

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Quote: lilredrooster

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I like the Cardinals (5-4) +1.5 at home over the Jets (3-6)

Aaron Rodgers is not what he used to be

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I needed to get some free play bets in and already bet the other side of that randomly. Don't ask me exactly how much 22.00 m₿ is I think it's around $1,800
🥺🥺🥺🥺🥺🥺🥺🥺🥺🥺🥺🥺🥺🥺🥺🥺

THU 11/7
11:31 PM Spread
Details
Football - 281 New York Jets -1½ -110 for Game
(fp)22.00 m₿
20.00 m₿

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I have this as well
Ticket#
Accepted Date
Type
Details
Risk
Win
11/7
11:33 PMS spread
Details
Football - 285 Miami Dolphins +1 -110 for Game
(fp) 17.00 m₿
15.45455 m₿

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posting early because I think the line might move to a worse deal
I like the Pack -5.5 over the Bears
the Bears are in a state of dysfunction - they just fired their offensive coordinator and their rookie qb is struggling
last weekend they were crushed by the lowly Patriots and the weekend before that they were crushed by even more by the not so lowly Cardinals

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Quote: lilredrooster

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posting early because I think the line might move to a worse deal
I like the Pack -5.5 over the Bears
the Bears are in a state of dysfunction - they just fired their offensive coordinator and their rookie qb is struggling
last weekend they were crushed by the lowly Patriots and the weekend before that they were crushed by even more by the not so lowly Cardinals

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Think this might be a market overreaction line personally. But let’s see.

For whatever reason if the bears and Packers are terrible,Packers normally win. Doubt if head coach isn't replaced next year. It was announced today Richardson will be starting QB for colts rest of the year. Guess they figure no chance of playoffs,so may as well play him. Hopefully he won't break a leg or something.

the current pattern that I see is the online sports betting sites will wait till a big season like the NFL starts to buttress up their offers for new players; and their offers for current players as well. As the season goes on, the offers dwindle. YMMV

Currently though I still see some where you get bonus money* to bet with 'win or lose' the initiating bet, which may be half the amount bet or sometimes the full amount. Getting bonus money 'win or lose' makes it +EV even if it is only half, and very much +EV if it is the full amount [assuming the initiating bet isn't a sucker bet]

The sites I think count on most of the players betting these wrong, too often choosing the favorite, paying less than even money, in order to at least get some of their money back on a loss. The Wizard has made it clear that the more you go in the opposite direction the more +EV you get, and that applies to both the initiating and the bonus bet. I have written before that for me there has to be a limit in order to emotionally survive the losing streaks, so I tend to pick between +200 and +300 for the bets

I like soccer tie bets for bonus bets, and recently have done even better with college basketball money line bets. I suspect the oddsmakers don't have a good grasp on how to really set the odds in most games, especially early season, and upsets occur at a much higher rate. This makes betting underdogs in the up to +300 range work even better ... at least I can say I have done better with them than anything else for two years now

disclaimer: I do not view making these same bets as a +EV thing under other circumstances, such as a normal bet

* the type where you get the winnings but the winnings only, the amount bet is not returned with it

the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder

Quote: odiousgambit

the current pattern that I see is the online sports betting sites will wait till a big season like the NFL starts to buttress up their offers for new players; and their offers for current players as well. As the season goes on, the offers dwindle. YMMV

Currently though I still see some where you get bonus money* to bet with 'win or lose' the initiating bet, which may be half the amount bet or sometimes the full amount. Getting bonus money 'win or lose' makes it +EV even if it is only half, and very much +EV if it is the full amount [assuming the initiating bet isn't a sucker bet]

The sites I think count on most of the players betting these wrong, too often choosing the favorite, paying less than even money, in order to at least get some of their money back on a loss. The Wizard has made it clear that the more you go in the opposite direction the more +EV you get, and that applies to both the initiating and the bonus bet. I have written before that for me there has to be a limit in order to emotionally survive the losing streaks, so I tend to pick between +200 and +300 for the bets

I like soccer tie bets for bonus bets, and recently have done even better with college basketball money line bets. I suspect the oddsmakers don't have a good grasp on how to really set the odds in most games, especially early season, and upsets occur at a much higher rate. This makes betting underdogs in the up to +300 range work even better ... at least I can say I have done better with them than anything else for two years now

disclaimer: I do not view making these same bets as a +EV thing under other circumstances, such as a normal bet

* the type where you get the winnings but the winnings only, the amount bet is not returned with it
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Just curious are you talking about offshore books or state/country-regulated?

If you're talking about offshore do you mind sharing some of the places you use? I've recently started using more of the less-known offshore places.

I had an agent(he is super pushy and I don't quite trust his suggestions) offer me a no-deposit $250 worth of free play with fairly low wagering at a Sportsbook and casino I had never even heard of before.

I was able to use the free play in both the casino and sports betting. I turned that $250 free play into a few thousand betting Sports and playing some slots. I wasn't sure if I was going to get paid or not, but it didn't matter since it was free free play in the first place. To my surprise, I was able to cash out successfully.

They then offered me some generous deposit bonuses. I used approximately $1,000 of the $2,000 I had previously made and promptly ran my account up to about $8,000 on Sports and slots. I put in some total ploppy action and gave a little bit back as I was cashing out between $800 and 1,000 at a time. They have paid me almost everything thus far. I still have a little bit left in the casino and some pending bets. They have now limited me to winning $100 maximum on Sports bets.

Perhaps I'll post up some decent hit slot porn screenshots.

Quote: AxelWolf

Just curious are you talking about offshore books or state/country-regulated?

Virginia sportsbetting sites. Bet365, Betrivers, Draftkings. Currently Bet365 getting most of my action.

Quote:

Perhaps I'll post up some decent hit slot porn screenshots.
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we're ready!

Big game tonight. Akron Zips laying 10 to the Golden Flashes of Kent State. Akron has been horrible for as long as I an remember, at least since Charlie Frye. The Flashes have not won a game this year which makes the two win Zips look powerful. Will the Flashes at home cover a 10 point spread?

I think I might place a few sheckles on the Zips -10.

I think I am also favoring the Broncos -6.5 tonight.

Temple beats Florida International 18-15 this week in overtime.

Both teams fired their coaches after the game.

Quote: unJon

Quote: AxelWolf

It's over... prob, gg first match. I bet $500 let's hope she finishes it in the 3rd
link to original post

Was this referring to the Horth UFC fight where the Canadian was gifted the split decision?
link to original post

Yes

Quote: odiousgambit

Quote: AxelWolf

Just curious are you talking about offshore books or state/country-regulated?

Virginia sportsbetting sites. Bet365, Betrivers, Draftkings. Currently Bet365 getting most of my action.

Quote:

Perhaps I'll post up some decent hit slot porn screenshots.
link to original post

we're ready!
link to original post

I posed a few from yesterday over in Nathans corner, with an explanation of why I was playing.

Looking for input on parlay betting in sports and made a blogpost
finally worked out some math myself, there could be mistakes

in particular I wrote "What about +EV if you get win or lose second chance bet?...Is it as simple as adding the EVs of the two phases together?" I would like to know I'm right about that , thanks

of course any other input appreciated too. I caught one error already

blog is titled 'Second Chance Parlay Betting'

How’s this for you. (All numbers approximate). You make a $10 twol leg parlay. Both legs the standard -110. So you ‘should’ get +300 if no juice but the -110 parlayed gets you to +264.

You will win 1/4 of the time. Lose 3/4 of the time. So for 4 bets you win $26.40, lose $30, so overall loss of $3.60, or $0.90 per bet.

The 3/4 of the time you lost you get a ‘free bet’ of $10. You make the same two leg parlay at +264. You win that 1/4 of the time, but only get the $26.40 back, not the $10 from the free bet. So $26.40 divided by 4 is $6.60. So the free bet is worth $6.60, but you only get it when you lost the original bet, so add $4.95 to your initial EV.

Remember, you lost $0.90 per $10 bet without the offer. The offer gives you $4.95 per $10 bet. Total EV is +$4.05.

The above is just a simple example. You can bump the EV by taking longer odds bets. Plus a few other tweaks.

If you want zero variance, with 4 separate accounts you can lock in that $4.05.

thanks, I'll study that

my problem with 3 leg parlays isn't that I don't get paid enough on a win, it's that I can't seem to win them at all! [exaggeration but I'm running bad on them all the time]

as far as "do you just add the EVs together?" , I can say this:

If you were given a second chance, win or lose, on betting in Craps on a 7 will roll next and getting the standard 4:1 normally awful payoff, you would absolutely just add the EVs of the two bets together. [and you'd kill the house]. For some reason I'm confident of that but less confident in what I posted

what if you got a *win or lose* second chance in craps with a 7 next roll bet but only had half your initial bet as a freebet on that winnings-only basis?

1/6*4-5/6*1 = -1/6 = -0.1667 EV for first phase [in units]
1/6*2-5/6*zero= 0.333 EV for second phase

you definitely add those EVs together and I'll just let everybody do that