Sports betting chatter
Quote: billryanI'm not sure why anyone would believe a word he says, but Im sure his stories are great
I'm not sure why anyone would believe a word you say
and your stories aren't even remotely close to being great
.
Quote: lilredroosterQuote: billryanI'm not sure why anyone would believe a word he says, but Im sure his stories are great
I'm not sure why anyone would believe a word you say
and your stories aren't even remotely close to being great
.
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Okay.
I won a little over $5 on a DK free pool. I love free money.
Detroit Tigers tonight is free money.
Quote: SOOPOOSOOPOO loves Braves over Mets today. Montas was an abject failure in his injury rehab assignments. Braves pitcher was dismal UNTIL last few games.
I won a little over $5 on a DK free pool. I love free money.
Detroit Tigers tonight is free money.
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So….. I won last night as my parlays started with two wins…. but NOT because I actually ‘knew’ anything! Montas was GREAT for the Mets, but their bullpen just kept walking and hitting everyone. And in the other game, I expected Skubal to be his usual shut down self. He gave up 4 early runs but Detroit scored double figures.
This week it's the Rocket Classic. Morikawa is the most favored player, Scheffler is not playing. This makes the field look even better I guess.
What the hell, today I am betting the same amount on each of these to win, skipping Morikawa. [he is +1300 just for the record, as I write this]
So Morikawa or the Field? Some of the Field ha ha
Bradly +1900
Cantlay +1700
Griffin +2200
Matsuyama +3000
Hall +3500
KIm +3200
Young +2700
Clark +3700
Greyserman +3700
Clanton +3700
Mitchell +5000
Fitzpatrick +3700
Thompson +3700
Bhatia +4500
Lee +5000
Gotter +5500
The least paying, Cantlay at +1700, easily covers the rest bet. The rest of the field is paying better than +5000 but I am reluctant to add any
Quote: odiousgambitSo in case you missed it, I’m getting a kick out of betting the PGA because up till now the question “will the winner be Sheffler or the Field?” is in the air . it reminded me of when Tiger Woods was at his peak, some people asked the same thing. It probably wasn’t really a thing to bet on back then either, but I am having fun betting on it anyway. Nope, not +EV
This week it's the Rocket Classic. Morikawa is the most favored player, Scheffler is not playing. This makes the field look even better I guess.
What the hell, today I am betting the same amount on each of these to win, skipping Morikawa. [he is +1300 just for the record, as I write this]
So Morikawa or the Field? Some of the Field ha ha
Bradly +1900
Cantlay +1700
Griffin +2200
Matsuyama +3000
Hall +3500
KIm +3200
Young +2700
Clark +3700
Greyserman +3700
Clanton +3700
Mitchell +5000
Fitzpatrick +3700
Thompson +3700
Bhatia +4500
Lee +5000
Gotter +5500
The least paying, Cantlay at +1700, easily covers the rest bet. The rest of the field is paying better than +5000 but I am reluctant to add any
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Good luck! Do I understand correctly….? You are betting, say $10, on each of the 16 golfers listed to win? So if Cantlay wins, you have risked $160, for a total win of $20? But if any of golfers 17-154, or the favorite, win you lose your entire $160?
It almost feels like you are betting 33 numbers on a roulette spin in which you are very likely to win but of course will get smoked in the long run.
For whatever it’s worth, I got boosted odds on Garrick Higgo top 10. I think it was around 10-1. He did win something already this year, and I won a lot on him in the past at long odds.
Edit. It was 16-1 boosted.
SOOPOO likes the Brewers (although it’s hard to get rich betting against Paul Skenes). And the Rockies getting 2.5 runs against the Dodgers.
I'll look at Higgo. I think I can also make a boosted bet and haven't done that yet
notice it isn't a consistent increase in payoff altho I took them one at a time in sequence. I think they started out as increasing payoff and that's how the lines moved for each, so keep an eye on Cantlay and Young too
https://nypost.com/2025/06/25/sports/collin-morikawa-splits-with-another-caddie-after-five-tournaments/
Those who golf might appreciate this.
Aldrich Potgeiter had 8 ‘3’’s on his first 10 holes. That is flat out ridiculous. 2 par 3’s, 6 par 4’s, 2 par 5’s.
His two 4’s included a missed 11 foot eagle putt and a missed 12 foot birdie putt. He cooled off and ‘only’ shot 10 under par. Tied for the lead.
golf seems to be a sport where you have strong performers at the top and a huge field barking at their heels at all times... some rising some falling
I'll beat Soopoo in reporting that I don't have any of the current leaders, and Morikawa is not out of it either. Sir, you need to quit with putting the jynx on me ha ha. But I might get the last laugh
It's gotten worse, this has been a tournament for dark horses to shine for sureQuote: odiousgambitRocket classic has a leader board with a million players at -11 and the leader at -14, not exactly out of reach.
I'll beat Soopoo in reporting that I don't have any of the current leaders, and Morikawa is not out of it either. Sir, you need to quit with putting the jynx on me ha ha. But I might get the last laugh
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That Potgeiter would still be killing it at this point? Usually the ability of the good players to 'bring it' day after day will separate them .... So I'd have been quite ready to bet 'no'. But there is still plenty of golf to play
Quote: odiousgambitIt's gotten worse, this has been a tournament for dark horses to shine for sureQuote: odiousgambitRocket classic has a leader board with a million players at -11 and the leader at -14, not exactly out of reach.
I'll beat Soopoo in reporting that I don't have any of the current leaders, and Morikawa is not out of it either. Sir, you need to quit with putting the jynx on me ha ha. But I might get the last laugh
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That Potgeiter would still be killing it at this point? Usually the ability of the good players to 'bring it' day after day will separate them .... So I'd have been quite ready to bet 'no'. But there is still plenty of golf to play
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Greyserman has putt to win at at 37-1 for you!
SOOPOO got a bet in on Porgeiter after second round at 25-1. He just hit a putt I can not describe as a choke. But he won’t be a ‘nobody’ for much longer. He’s 20, and freakishly long. Typing live,…. Potgeiter has 4 feet or so for par to get into playoff.
I can't win on the first bet to save my life since it started. Second chance not going that good either. But I have faith this will mean some money in the long run
froze it before he teed off and getting back to it now. gotta root for G-man but almost could root for PortgeitherQuote: SOOPOOQuote: odiousgambitIt's gotten worse, this has been a tournament for dark horses to shine for sureQuote: odiousgambitRocket classic has a leader board with a million players at -11 and the leader at -14, not exactly out of reach.
I'll beat Soopoo in reporting that I don't have any of the current leaders, and Morikawa is not out of it either. Sir, you need to quit with putting the jynx on me ha ha. But I might get the last laugh
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That Potgeiter would still be killing it at this point? Usually the ability of the good players to 'bring it' day after day will separate them .... So I'd have been quite ready to bet 'no'. But there is still plenty of golf to play
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Greyserman has putt to win at at 37-1 for you!
SOOPOO got a bet in on Porgeiter after second round at 25-1. He just hit a putt I can not describe as a choke. But he won’t be a ‘nobody’ for much longer. He’s 20, and freakishly long. Typing live,…. Potgeiter has 4 feet or so for par to get into playoff.
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Quote: odiousgambitfroze it before he teed off and getting back to it now. gotta root for G-man but almost could root for PortgeitherQuote: SOOPOOQuote: odiousgambitIt's gotten worse, this has been a tournament for dark horses to shine for sureQuote: odiousgambitRocket classic has a leader board with a million players at -11 and the leader at -14, not exactly out of reach.
I'll beat Soopoo in reporting that I don't have any of the current leaders, and Morikawa is not out of it either. Sir, you need to quit with putting the jynx on me ha ha. But I might get the last laugh
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That Potgeiter would still be killing it at this point? Usually the ability of the good players to 'bring it' day after day will separate them .... So I'd have been quite ready to bet 'no'. But there is still plenty of golf to play
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Greyserman has putt to win at at 37-1 for you!
SOOPOO got a bet in on Porgeiter after second round at 25-1. He just hit a putt I can not describe as a choke. But he won’t be a ‘nobody’ for much longer. He’s 20, and freakishly long. Typing live,…. Potgeiter has 4 feet or so for par to get into playoff.
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They both missed some makeable, but not gimme, putts. Too bad I only bet $1!
If get a boost offer this week I’m going for either Thorbjornson or Potgeiter to repeat.
Quote: odiousgambitI'm thinking that Potgeiter , at least, maybe some others, got slipped in under the oddsmakers radar and some people made some nice money on this ... sure would have been nice to have been in on it
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What do you mean by this? You think there’s information about Potgeiter’s chances of winning this that the odds makers didn’t know but some inside people did?
Quote: unJonQuote: odiousgambitI'm thinking that Potgeiter , at least, maybe some others, got slipped in under the oddsmakers radar and some people made some nice money on this ... sure would have been nice to have been in on it
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What do you mean by this? You think there’s information about Potgeiter’s chances of winning this that the odds makers didn’t know but some inside people did?
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We’ll, maybe, sort of….. I watched a good part of the tournament. There were many shots where the longest hitter had a HUGE advantage over a player who can’t hit it as far. Not just the distance between the lengths. Some holes required a 300 yard CARRY to clear a bunker/tree/hazzard. Potgeiter would launch his 310, then with roll get to 350. The shorter hitting pro would thus have to avoid the bunker, often requiring him to lay up short of it. So the final result would be an 80 yard difference. I’d say some ‘inside people’ would be more aware of the course set up than the ‘oddsmakers’. The oddsmakers take name recognition into account more than course set up for sure.
Now….. I was unaware of this angle before I made my bet. I picked him because he was around the lead and had nearly already won two tournaments at his not even legal to drink a beer age. I think he will ascend to top 10 in the world.
He was +5500 or even more before setting off. Unjon, maybe the feeling was he had been just a flash in the panQuote: SOOPOOI think he will ascend to top 10 in the world.
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I just wonder
I have to admit whenever I've doubted the oddsmakers, they've proven me wrong every time, but I will be putting some money on top 20 and probably other spots
I wonder if the bookies have adequately included, as an example, the chances of a specific pitch being a ball during ‘unintentional intentional walks’ of players like Judge and Ohtani?
Quote: SOOPOOIt had to happen…. You can now bet on the results of single pitches. A pitcher threw two pitches yards out of the strike zone…. it happens…. but….. there was ‘unusual betting action’ on those results…. Luis Ortiz has been suspended pending an investigation……. He’s a fringe major leaguer making less than $800k so certainly could be tempted to throw two ‘balls’ in specific instances for some extra $$$.
I wonder if the bookies have adequately included, as an example, the chances of a specific pitch being a ball during ‘unintentional intentional walks’ of players like Judge and Ohtani?
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You'd think if he was on the take he'd make it less obvious. If he was on the take, AND throw a couple way outside, then he's an idiot.
I have the below 24, approximately in order of who pays best if to win . I quit selecting them if they pay 100:1 or more [for obvious reason], except for Kim, who I couldn’t resist at 100:1. But I think it’s more than obvious now that dark horses can and will emerge. Not to mention Scheffler winning.
You have to get to Aberg, coming up from the bottom, before one of the below winning will pay enough to cover the losses on the others. So the idea is to hedge against loss with the other ones. What Mcilroy is paying stinks enough I almost didn’t include him, so Scheffler or Mcilroy winning both will be bad news. The rest either have me coming out nice or losing almost nothing [and I’m betting very little anyway]. I will beat Soopoo to the point that this is not +EV but just for fun!!
Kim, Spaun, Detry, Greyserman, English, Conners, Hojgaard, Clark, McNealy, Rai, Straka, Hall, Fox, Scott, Fitzpatrick, Burns, Thomas, Hovland, Aberg, MacIntyre, Schauffele, Morikawa, Fleetwood, McIlroy
Only thing is, for my wife and I watching the golf together, it seems to add a lot of interest and is worth the insignificant-in-scale -EV nature of it. It also supports my argument to my wife to quit worrying about my gambling since I emphasize how little I commit heh heh
I can tell at a glance which bets have a chance now since they will let me cash out on them .... Mcilroy , Fitzpatrick, Straka, and Clark . Cashing out? not interested, nothing at stake anyway
Scheffler is only 3 strokes behind at the moment. If you still fancy him, he pays 33 to 1
Quote: odiousgambit"Scheffler or the Field?" ... that question has not been holding up, I might drop it.
Only thing is, for my wife and I watching the golf together, it seems to add a lot of interest and is worth the insignificant-in-scale -EV nature of it. It also supports my argument to my wife to quit worrying about my gambling since I emphasize how little I commit heh heh
Holy cow, I am so jealous. I have never heard of a couple watching golf together.
I've kept up with golf solely due to others I've known who had an interest
she also likes hockey, don't know why, but other people have pointed out that I'm lucky to not have to fight over the remote when sports are on, generally, almost all sports I have an interest in, she at least has a passing interest. Neither of us follow basketball now
Was able to get Chisholm to heat Caminero 1st round at +120. Was able to get Caminero (boosted) to beat Chisholm TOTAL at +108.
Both are not expected to see a second round.
So $50 on Caminero wins $54
$46 on Chisholm wins $55
So win $12 if Caminero wins. $5 if Chisholm wins.
I can lose it all…. if Caminero beats Chisholm first round, both qualify for 2nd round, and Chisholm ends up beating Caminero overall.
I can win it all if the opposite occurs.
Also, the ‘fair line’ of total HRs is around 240. I got under 238.5 at + 140.
Also got Raleigh to win it all at +470.
Quote: SOOPOOFound this tasty morsel.
Was able to get Chisholm to heat Caminero 1st round at +120. Was able to get Caminero (boosted) to beat Chisholm TOTAL at +108.
Both are not expected to see a second round.
So $50 on Caminero wins $54
$46 on Chisholm wins $55
So win $12 if Caminero wins. $5 if Chisholm wins.
I can lose it all…. if Caminero beats Chisholm first round, both qualify for 2nd round, and Chisholm ends up beating Caminero overall.
I can win it all if the opposite occurs.
Also, the ‘fair line’ of total HRs is around 240. I got under 238.5 at + 140.
Also got Raleigh to win it all at +470.
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They all hit. $$$. Plus also get a $56 free bet on one of my Cal Raleigh bets.
Today the free money comes on the all star game. MGM lets me bet NRFI at -150. Getting +185 or so on the other 3 sites for YFRI with their boost offers.
Free money on the British open. The ‘yes hole in one’ and ‘no hole in one’ odds on different sites are very close. Add in the boosts and it is easy $$.
Free money paid for golf today.
