Sports betting chatter
Quote: SOOPOO. Looked GOOD with a minute to go.Quote: DRichMy alma matter Iowa Hawkeyes play the Missouri Tigers today in the Music City bowl. The line is Missouri -2.5.
I don't like either side so I made a silly bet that the game will go to overtime at 10-1.
link to original post
link to original post
Yes it did. On Iowa's last offensive play they had a 4th and one foot at about midfield. That might have been the worst 4th down play that I have ever seen.
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: lilredrooster.
this ESPN link shows some of the wildest bets from this year so far - mostly crazy parlays
but one bettor bet $ 3.1 million on the Eagles on the moneyline -700 to beat the Panthers at Circa Sports - it went down to the wire but he won it winning $442, 857
https://www.espn.com/espn/betting/story/_/id/43222711/betting-year-review-breaking-biggest-wildest-wagers-2024
.
link to original post
I’m getting ‘year in review’ type communications from the sportsbooks. It just reminds me how little I bet when I compare it to even a $1000 a game better. And some of my ‘action’ is really closer to ‘no action’. Like laying 200-1 on a soccer team ahead by 3 goals in the second half. $10 gets me a nickel. I did lose $2 recently trying to win A PENNY when the Hawks came from 17 down with 5 minutes to go.
For those of you (smart enough) who want to fade me, I have the BlackHawks to upset the Blues in the outdoor game. And under 5.5.
Texas ML starts a lot of my parlays where I need one ‘sure’ winner.
And I got Patriots plus 3, as well as some Patriots Money Line for Sunday. As far as the +3, I think there is added value, as I’d predict EITHER team would go for 2 to win(or lose) the game instead of going for possible OT.
Also just found boosts to use on PSU/BOISE over 53.5. As well as PSU/BOISE under 54.5. So either way win a few $, but if exactly 54 win $$$.
link to original post
Right now, I wouldn't bet on the Patriots successfully mixing the right flavor/color Gatorade for the sidelines, they're that bad.
Quote: GenoDRPh
Right now, I wouldn't bet on the Patriots successfully mixing the right flavor/color Gatorade for the sidelines, they're that bad.
link to original post
My question would be do the Patriots want to lose the first pick in the draft?
Quote: DRichQuote: GenoDRPh
Right now, I wouldn't bet on the Patriots successfully mixing the right flavor/color Gatorade for the sidelines, they're that bad.
link to original post
My question would be do the Patriots want to lose the first pick in the draft?
link to original post
The PLAYERS all want to win. The coaches not so sure. Management I’m sure want to lose. We shall see how the game plays out. Hard for me to see Mayo tanking on purpose. Easy for me to see McDermott tanking.
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: DRichQuote: GenoDRPh
Right now, I wouldn't bet on the Patriots successfully mixing the right flavor/color Gatorade for the sidelines, they're that bad.
link to original post
My question would be do the Patriots want to lose the first pick in the draft?
link to original post
The PLAYERS all want to win. The coaches not so sure. Management I’m sure want to lose. We shall see how the game plays out. Hard for me to see Mayo tanking on purpose. Easy for me to see McDermott tanking.
link to original post
If they lose, they keep the first pick. If they win they'll most likely be knocked out of the top 5. There is also a healthy respect for competition and fair play and trying to win and all that. Which do they value more, the first pick which they will trade away for a motherlode of picks, or a pick in spot 6-10 they can use to shore up the roster? They already have a franchise QB and a shut-down CB. As for the rest of the roster...
Quote: GenoDRPhQuote: SOOPOOQuote: DRichQuote: GenoDRPh
Right now, I wouldn't bet on the Patriots successfully mixing the right flavor/color Gatorade for the sidelines, they're that bad.
link to original post
My question would be do the Patriots want to lose the first pick in the draft?
link to original post
The PLAYERS all want to win. The coaches not so sure. Management I’m sure want to lose. We shall see how the game plays out. Hard for me to see Mayo tanking on purpose. Easy for me to see McDermott tanking.
link to original post
If they lose, they keep the first pick. If they win they'll most likely be knocked out of the top 5. There is also a healthy respect for competition and fair play and trying to win and all that. Which do they value more, the first pick which they will trade away for a motherlode of picks, or a pick in spot 6-10 they can use to shore up the roster? They already have a franchise QB and a shut-down CB. As for the rest of the roster...
link to original post
If the ONLY goal is to win the Super Bowl, then the Patriots should take a knee on all offensive plays. And instruct the defense to make no tackles.
Frankly, the same can be said about their opponent, the Bills. They should do everything in their power to not get an injury. Nothing else about this game is relevant to them.
I’m not sure what the exact rules for using ‘practice squad’ players is, but if allowed I think the Bills will use all of them.
If the Patriots did not already have a putative ‘franchise QB’ I think the pressure on them to lose would be greater. Still markedly in their best interests to get the #1 pick to trade.
Quote: billryanFor those who may be betting, Georgia will likely be missing a dozen starters or key reserves when it takes the field tonight against Notre Dame, including several projected top draft picks.
link to original post
I wish you would have told me this an hour ago….
Same was said about Michigan yesterday, by the way.
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: billryanFor those who may be betting, Georgia will likely be missing a dozen starters or key reserves when it takes the field tonight against Notre Dame, including several projected top draft picks.
link to original post
I wish you would have told me this an hour ago….
Same was said about Michigan yesterday, by the way.
link to original post
I've never seen Bama play as many White linemen, so I assume most of the starters either sat out or transferred.
It looks like the Ohio State vs Texas game is Ohio State favored by 6. I doubt that I will bet that as the game is in Dallas.
Overall he's on the money
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S8ouLblnUCw
Donovan Mitchell played a great game despite barely scoring. They ‘blitzed’ him, and he always made the correct pass. He was VERY unlucky to end up with only 4 assists.
My (likely -EV) bets tonight are Mitchell
Over 4.5 assists at -130
Over 5.5 assists at +150
Over 7.5 assists at + 500
They are playing a dismally poor defensive team in the Raptors, so I am at risk for Mitchell not to even play in the 4th quarter.
I had a bonus bet to use so took Cavs at 13-1 to win the championship.
Quote: SOOPOOI watched Cavs/Thunder. Cavs (now!) are a slightly better team than the Thunder. I’d bet on the Thunder all day once they get Holmgren back.
Donovan Mitchell played a great game despite barely scoring. They ‘blitzed’ him, and he always made the correct pass. He was VERY unlucky to end up with only 4 assists.
My (likely -EV) bets tonight are Mitchell
Over 4.5 assists at -130
Over 5.5 assists at +150
Over 7.5 assists at + 500
They are playing a dismally poor defensive team in the Raptors, so I am at risk for Mitchell not to even play in the 4th quarter.
I had a bonus bet to use so took Cavs at 13-1 to win the championship.
link to original post
What I find most surprising about the Cavs is that they are 33-4 with a brand new coach hired this season. I don't recall any start by any team that good with a brand new coach.
I think this is a pretty good line considering the recency bias and the fact the game is in Dallas. I want to bet Ohio State but my gut is telling me not to. I doubt that I will make a bet on this game.
several websites are offering AI picks on sports bets - and I believe the picks are free at most of the sites - they priced them right
I don't believe AI picks can beat the lines in the long run for many different reasons - I don't wanna list all of them here
it would just be so easy to go to some sites and get some winning picks - but in reality beating the lines is never easy
would like to hear other opinions about this
.
Quote: lilredrooster.
several websites are offering AI picks on sports bets - and I believe the picks are free at most of the sites - they priced them right
I don't believe AI picks can beat the lines in the long run for many different reasons - I don't wanna list all of them here
it would just be so easy to go to some sites and get some winning picks - but in reality beating the lines is never easy
would like to hear other opinions about this
.
link to original post[/
It's a relatively short track record, but AI has shown it can outperform most stock pickers, so why not most sports bettors?The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
Quote: billryanQuote: lilredrooster.
several websites are offering AI picks on sports bets - and I believe the picks are free at most of the sites - they priced them right
I don't believe AI picks can beat the lines in the long run for many different reasons - I don't wanna list all of them here
it would just be so easy to go to some sites and get some winning picks - but in reality beating the lines is never easy
would like to hear other opinions about this
.
link to original post[/
It's a relatively short track record, but AI has shown it can outperform most stock pickers, so why not most sports bettors?
link to original post
well for example
an AI site picks a fave at -3 when the betting opens up
a great many bet that pick and within a couple of hours the line is at -4.5 - and the pick is no longer good
if it ever was a good pick - and websites could post lies (shocking isn't it) about their record with AI
.the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
Quote: lilredroosterQuote: billryanQuote: lilredrooster.
several websites are offering AI picks on sports bets - and I believe the picks are free at most of the sites - they priced them right
I don't believe AI picks can beat the lines in the long run for many different reasons - I don't wanna list all of them here
it would just be so easy to go to some sites and get some winning picks - but in reality beating the lines is never easy
would like to hear other opinions about this
.
link to original post[/
It's a relatively short track record, but AI has shown it can outperform most stock pickers, so why not most sports bettors?
link to original post
well for example
an AI site picks a fave at -3 when the betting opens up
a great many bet that pick and within a couple of hours the line is at -4.5 - and the pick is no longer good
if it ever was a good pick - and websites could post lies (shocking isn't it) about their record with AI
.
link to original post
Ummmm…. If the AI identifies a ‘-3’ spread as worth betting on, it will bet on it. It doesn’t matter if YOU can’t get that bet down later.
But yesterday hit 6 leg NHL parlay. All slight favorites. Was 20-1, before boost, and became 30-1 with. Last leg was Avalanche who needed goal in last minute to tie, and frantic penalty kill in OT! Anyway, hitting on of these makes up for the 10 losses in a row preceding. Hit a 3 legger as well.
Point being, as all the APs here know, you just have to trust your EV calculations, and be funded properly to capitalize safely.
Jokic hit his usual triple double. I don’t think he played the last 15 minutes of the game.
it just seems too easy to me - open up your AI website make your picks and watch the money roll in
hard for me to believe beating sports could be that easy
there needs to be some reliable long term data from someone outside the sports betting industry to really understand its possibilities and its limitations
.
Quote: lilredrooster.
it just seems too easy to me - open up your AI website make your picks and watch the money roll in
hard for me to believe beating sports could be that easy
there needs to be some reliable long term data from someone outside the sports betting industry to really understand its possibilities and its limitations
.
link to original post
I generally agree here. If the AI is that good at it, you don’t think the line setters would use it as well?
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: lilredrooster.
it just seems too easy to me - open up your AI website make your picks and watch the money roll in
hard for me to believe beating sports could be that easy
there needs to be some reliable long term data from someone outside the sports betting industry to really understand its possibilities and its limitations
.
link to original post
I generally agree here. If the AI is that good at it, you don’t think the line setters would use it as well?
link to original post
EXACTLY_______!!!!
they will use it if they believe the analysis is sharp
and the bettors will still have to pay the vig
.
those sites you mention, rooster, those are sites suggesting what to bet on, and you can pay for more, correct?
So needed to deposit $2k into Caesars to make immediate bet. Used their ‘preferred expedited transfer’ or whatever it was called. They did explain if you use this you cannot withdraw it without a 1x playthrough. Since I was betting it all it wasn’t an issue, but I’m surprised they can get away with that requirement when NOT given a bonus of any sort.
I’m going to miss this when I’m in Florida. Hard Rock is actually ok for offers/boosts, but it’s only one Sportsbook. .
they say I'm 'welcome' when I sign in, but ...
Quote: odiousgambityes, the house will be the one using the AI first, and any AI offered to the casual user? buyer beware!
those sites you mention, rooster, those are sites suggesting what to bet on, and you can pay for more, correct?
link to original post
yeah, I think so - I haven't gone into it in depth
I basically don't trust anybody offering picks - I agree with you 100% -
.
Quote: lilredroosterQuote: odiousgambityes, the house will be the one using the AI first, and any AI offered to the casual user? buyer beware!
those sites you mention, rooster, those are sites suggesting what to bet on, and you can pay for more, correct?
link to original post
yeah, I think so - I haven't gone into it in depth
I basically don't trust anybody offering picks - I agree with you 100% -
.
link to original post
I don't trust people selling picks. It has to be a lock or I'm passing.
