Sports betting chatter
I had a VERY bad beat yesterday. Only parlay leg that lost…. I had Ekeler to have over 24.5?receiving yards. He dropped a few, one tipped before it got to him, had one cancelled by a penalty, and finished with 23 yards…..
One good win was a bunch of overs in 76ers game. Points, assists, rebounds…. Every one hit before the end of the 3rd quarter!
Not a road dog, but I took the 16.5 points for $500 as well.
Quote: AxelWolfThis week I bet all road dogs for $500 each.
Not a road dog, but I took the 16.5 points for $500 as well.
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Drinking too much? Road dogs in what sport? 16.5 points in what game? (Of course I’m guessing it’s NFL and the Giants?).
Some sort of bonus or do you think the individual bets are each + EV?
Yes 150% deposit Bonuse. Road Dogs 4 pts or less has been written about. It is Better than flipping coins. While putting in some cover play on slots, I got lucky and ran my account up an extra 4k. I still have over 40k worth of wagering left, so anything can happen.Quote: SOOPOOQuote: AxelWolfThis week I bet all road dogs for $500 each.
Not a road dog, but I took the 16.5 points for $500 as well.
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Drinking too much? Road dogs in what sport? 16.5 points in what game? (Of course I’m guessing it’s NFL and the Giants?).
Some sort of bonus or do you think the individual bets are each + EV?
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Quote: DRichI really like USC tonight getting +16 from Oregon. The USC defense is poor but I think they can still score on Oregon so 16 points sounds way too generous to me. For me this would be a medium size bet.
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I agree (which is NOT a good prognostic sign!). I got 17 on Caesars parlayed with under 78 at +300.
The SEC championship is set for Georgia to play Alabama. If Alabama beats Georgia that will throw a wrench into the playoffs. In two weeks #1 Ohio State will play #3 Michigan. If Michigan loses that game they will probably drop out of the playoffs because of the controversy they are currently going through. If Ohio State loses that game they will still be in consideration. #4 Washington will most likely play #6 Oregon in the PAC 12 championship. If Washington wins they will be in the playoff. If Oregon wins there goes another wrench in the system because their only loss was to Washington. Oregon is playing great and will probably make the playoff.
What an exciting year for college football.
Same concept…. I have DeVito over 158.5 with expectation most of those come in ‘garbage time’.
Nice hit on USC under last night. Doubled up on it with live profit boost. Cha ching.
Quote: DRichI was a little surprised that none of the top 8 teams lost yesterday. That is unusual at this point in the season. We did have #9 and #10 lost to #2 and #3.
The SEC championship is set for Georgia to play Alabama. If Alabama beats Georgia that will throw a wrench into the playoffs. In two weeks #1 Ohio State will play #3 Michigan. If Michigan loses that game they will probably drop out of the playoffs because of the controversy they are currently going through. If Ohio State loses that game they will still be in consideration. #4 Washington will most likely play #6 Oregon in the PAC 12 championship. If Washington wins they will be in the playoff. If Oregon wins there goes another wrench in the system because their only loss was to Washington. Oregon is playing great and will probably make the playoff.
What an exciting year for college football.
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If Bama or Washington win, I think they are in. Georgia is obviously in with a win. The winner of OSU- Mich is in, loser is out. Unless Oregon wins.
Quote: billryan
If Bama or Washington win, I think they are in. Georgia is obviously in with a win. The winner of OSU- Mich is in, loser is out. Unless Oregon wins.
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I think I agree with you. My gut says Georgia is in even with a loss to Alabama. Michigan is probably out with a loss. OSU with a loss is questionable depending on how other games are determined.
If I had to make a prediction today I would say Michigan, Georgia, Oregon, Ohio state.
Edit: I completely forgot about Florida State. I don't think they are as good as the others but they are still undefeated and probably will be going into the ACC championship against Louisville.
Quote: billryanI'll go with Bama, Georgia, OSU and Washington.
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It’s hard for me to fathom an undefeated FSU team not ahead of the loser of Georgia/Alabama. Even though I’d agree with you that either Georgia or Alabama is way better than FSU.
I guess if made to guess….. Georgia. FSU. Washington. Michigan.
My Dowdle bet was easiest winner of the year. Had 24 yards on first two early carries. Ended up with over 70.
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: billryanI'll go with Bama, Georgia, OSU and Washington.
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It’s hard for me to fathom an undefeated FSU team not ahead of the loser of Georgia/Alabama. Even though I’d agree with you that either Georgia or Alabama is way better than FSU.
I guess if made to guess….. Georgia. FSU. Washington. Michigan.
My Dowdle bet was easiest winner of the year. Had 24 yards on first two early carries. Ended up with over 70.
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Although I agree with you, i think the argument against FSU would be that they don't have any wins over high ranked teams. If I remember correctly their best win so far might be against Duke.
$50 netted me $100 profit. Certainly was +EV.
My main point is that one site ((FD) saw an offer from another site (BR) and sweetened it (a lot) as a competitive move.
San Jose State is favored by 14.5 over San Diego State.
You can get the field to win at +200. Or Verstappen at -250.
Last night had one parlay including over on Andrews yards and over on Burrow yards. If I had over on broken bones….
I'll throw in a pick here - game starts in 50 minutes
Michigan -17.5 over Maryland
Michigan has crushed everybody by way more than that except Penn State who they beat by 9
Maryland got crushed by 36 by Penn State___________glta
Michigan will be without Coach Harbaugh who is suspended -
obviously I'm thinking MD still is not even close to being in their league
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Quote: lilredrooster.
I'll throw in a pick here - game starts in 50 minutes
Michigan -17.5 over Maryland
Michigan has crushed everybody by way more than that except Penn State who they beat by 9
Maryland got crushed by 36 by Penn State___________glta
Michigan will be without Coach Harbaugh who is suspended -
obviously I'm thinking MD still is not even close to being in their league
.
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Are the Wolverines that good, or did they get away with cheating until now? Will they be stealing signs today?
I root for Michigan one day a year; when they play Ohio St.
In a perfect world, M loses to Maryland and then beats The U next game.
Quote: billryanQuote: lilredrooster.
I'll throw in a pick here - game starts in 50 minutes
Michigan -17.5 over Maryland
Michigan has crushed everybody by way more than that except Penn State who they beat by 9
Maryland got crushed by 36 by Penn State___________glta
Michigan will be without Coach Harbaugh who is suspended -
obviously I'm thinking MD still is not even close to being in their league
.
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Are the Wolverines that good, or did they get away with cheating until now? Will they be stealing signs today?
I root for Michigan one day a year; when they play Ohio St.
In a perfect world, M loses to Maryland and then beats The U next game.
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as part of the investigation Michigan has provided evidence of their own signals being stolen by other Big Ten teams
they claim that sign stealing is a common practice
that sounds about right to me
more than one rotten apple in the barrel
https://sports.yahoo.com/michigan-objects-to-premature-big-ten-discipline-on-sign-stealing-scandal-says-itd-exceed-commissioners-authority-010834892.html#:~:text=Yahoo%20Sports%20obtained%20a%20copy,by%20other%20Big%20Ten%20teams.
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Quote: billryan
Are the Wolverines that good, or did they get away with cheating until now? Will they be stealing signs today?
I root for Michigan one day a year; when they play Ohio St.
In a perfect world, M loses to Maryland and then beats The U next game.
Bill, have you been indulging in the peyote? One should never root for Michigan over Ohio St. I do believe Michigan has the better team this year but that doesn't always matter. The Buckeyes had the better team the last two years and lost.
I'm rooting for two Alabama-Georgia games and need Michigan to lose today and win next week.
Maryland is sticking around. 23-16 with a PAT to come.
Quote: billryanI disliked Woody Hayes so much that it will be at least fifty more years before I can root for OSU.
Just curious, why did you dislike him? I believe you are a few years older than I am and the only thing I remember negatively about him was the Clemson game.
I do like the fact he was a captain of a couple ships in the navy during WWII.
Quote: DRichQuote: billryanI disliked Woody Hayes so much that it will be at least fifty more years before I can root for OSU.
Just curious, why did you dislike him? I believe you are a few years older than I am and the only thing I remember negatively about him was the Clemson game.
I do like the fact he was a captain of a couple ships in the navy during WWII.
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He was a bully and had multiple confrontations with reporters and the like. There was a stretch of OSU/Michigan games where he was out of line. He charged the field one game and chased a reporter another. He also had some incredibly stupid comments on the war in Vietnam. When commenting on the My Lai massacre, he would only concede that children under five should have been spared and that he was okay with the rest of the villagers being killed because many of them might be Viet Cong.
My friend's brother wanted to play for Hayes and when he wasn't recruited, he considered going there as a walk-on. His parents explained that without a scholarship, he'd be going to Nassau Community so he ended up in Nebraska.
That's right, the 9-2 Iowa Hawkeyes fired their offensive Coordinator. I don't think I have ever seen a 9-2 team fire their coordinator midseason. Don't get me wrong, their offense is terrible and he deserves it but it still takes some balls to fire him when you are 9-2.
I’m going to Bills game tomorrow. So made all my bet offers on the Bills. Not smart, but I can’t be there and not be unequivocally rooting for them.
My bet on F1 as a big long shot is George Russell to win. I can hope Verstappen/Leclerc crash each other out…..
So it's Woody Hayes that Mission has been channeling! [inside joke for DT followers]Quote: billryan... He also had some incredibly stupid comments on the war in Vietnam. When commenting on the My Lai massacre, he would only concede that children under five should have been spared and that he was okay with the rest of the villagers being killed because many of them might be Viet Cong.
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My (most likely) -EV bet for today is BlackHawks -1.5 at +340. Sabres without Tage Thompson to me are a bottom team. Sabres if down one goal pull goalie very early. Seems like good value at +340 even though Black Hawks suck too.
I lost $1 yesterday on the big Libya/Eswatini soccer game. I don’t think I had ever heard of Eswatini. Apparently it used to be Swaziland. My wife guessed Eswatini was a new type of pasta. I texted my son, the trivia/crossword king. He was able to immediately name the capital of Eswatini.
I have a couple of parlays including Steelers +4. Got lucky (I hope) to get those before announcement of Watson done.
you were unhappy with my roulette thread
you wrote - "there really can't be anything interesting about roulette"
are you imagining that every single detail that you post of your sports betting bonuses, bets and results are truly fascinating_____________?
.
Quote: lilredrooster.
you were unhappy with my roulette thread
you wrote - "there really can't be anything interesting about roulette"
are you imagining that every single detail that you post of your sports betting bonuses, bets and results are truly fascinating_____________?
.
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Absolutely not! I’d guess the opposite. That the majority here don’t have ANY interest in my takes. But I think there are a few that do. So I’ll keep posting. It doesn’t cost me anything.
I like the FanDuel boost today. Embiid over 29.5 points, Halliburton over 9.5 assists at +170.
Had 1 good parlay last night. Basically the running backs (Swift Pacheco) over, the wide receivers under, the QBs under. All correlated. All hit.
Quote: SOOPOO
I like the FanDuel boost today. Embiid over 29.5 points, Halliburton over 9.5 assists at +170.
It hit. Embiid 32. Halliburton 16.
One of the risks of these ‘overs’ is the team doing TOO well. Had Anthony Davis hitting 30 last night. He had 26 mid 3rd quarter. But I don’t think he played at all in 4th due to Lakers blow out win.
Had variance on my side last night. ECU was 4th team needed for CBB parlay. Won on 50 footer at the buzzer.
of course I may soon be ashamed to say I did the below math wrong LOL, feel free to check it out. But I have decided that they amplify the HE even if the house does not alter the odds. I examined the -110 vs -110 you see all the time on bets the oddsmaker feels is approx. 50-50 chance. You need only look at the over/under and see a lot of this, so I checked it out.
Say you bet $110 and pick the over or the under, then prob of winning times amnt won is 100*½ and that will be minus amnt to lose times prob of that, 110*1/2
100*1/2-110*1/2=-5 expected value
so where h = house edge, e=expected v., and b= bet,
h=e/b=-5/110=-0.0454545454545455
4.5% HE for the single bet then
Or you pick the o/u for two different games -110 odds and parlay them. Assume again real chances are 50-50. DK indicates the parlay odds are +264 which is correct and not manipulated according to an online parlay calc.
DK payout shown is $400.90 for $110 bet, so it’s 290.90 profit on a win
math,
1/4*290.90-3/4*110 = -9.775
so 8.9% HE for the parlay bet!
If you bet $55 on each separately, the EV is -$2.48 for each
There’s only one thing to conclude here. Do not parlay unless there is a reason to do so!
* same game parlays are even worse , but not talking about those here
Quote: odiousgambitI'm ashamed to say that I have been concluding incorrectly that parlays* are not automatically worse than separate bets
There’s only one thing to conclude here. Do not parlay unless there is a reason to do so!
* same game parlays are even worse , but not talking about those here
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very good post
parlays and other types of longshot bets have always been a way for gambling management to lure bettors into making bets where the house has a much greater take
horse racing is the epitome of ridiculousness
the takeout on win, place, show averages about 17%
but then goes up to close to 30% on some of the exotic bets (exactas, trifectas, superfectas, pick 6) at many tracks
.
Quote: odiousgambitI'm ashamed to say that I have been concluding incorrectly that parlays* are not automatically worse than separate bets
of course I may soon be ashamed to say I did the below math wrong LOL, feel free to check it out. But I have decided that they amplify the HE even if the house does not alter the odds. I examined the -110 vs -110 you see all the time on bets the oddsmaker feels is approx. 50-50 chance. You need only look at the over/under and see a lot of this, so I checked it out.
Say you bet $110 and pick the over or the under, then prob of winning times amnt won is 100*½ and that will be minus amnt to lose times prob of that, 110*1/2
100*1/2-110*1/2=-5 expected value
so where h = house edge, e=expected v., and b= bet,
h=e/b=-5/110=-0.0454545454545455
4.5% HE for the single bet then
Or you pick the o/u for two different games -110 odds and parlay them. Assume again real chances are 50-50. DK indicates the parlay odds are +264 which is correct and not manipulated according to an online parlay calc.
DK payout shown is $400.90 for $110 bet, so it’s 290.90 profit on a win
math,
1/4*290.90-3/4*110 = -9.775
so 8.9% HE for the parlay bet!
If you bet $55 on each separately, the EV is -$2.48 for each
There’s only one thing to conclude here. Do not parlay unless there is a reason to do so!
* same game parlays are even worse , but not talking about those here
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This is not the right way to think about it. You are calculating the parlay house edge based on the $110. But a parlay is really making one straight bet at $110 and then a second straight bet at $210.
I thought it showed that you are better off making separate bets, no matterQuote: unJon
This is not the right way to think about it. You are calculating the parlay house edge based on the $110. But a parlay is really making one straight bet at $110 and then a second straight bet at $210.
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the offers that a player gets may require you parlay, that's the only time I wouldn't argue. Or maybe I'm wrong , don't see it yet
Yes. There is a reason that Steve Christ is the “King of the Pick Six”. Parlays have less effective take out. Steve would rather pay a higher takeout once compared to a lower takeout six times. I was big into the ponies decades ago. I like to do the math focusing on the amount the odds have to be wrong to make a bet breakeven.Quote: unJonThis is not the right way to think about it. You are calculating the parlay house edge based on the $110. But a parlay is really making one straight bet at $110 and then a second straight bet at $210.
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Suppose there are six consecutive match races between horses that are reasonably matched in ability. The WPS takeout is 15%. Betting is even on both sides for every horse in every race. For every $4 wagered, the track takes out $0.60. The winner of each race pays $3.40. The crowd sees each race as 50/50. In order to be EV-neutral betting $2 on each of the races, you need to find horses that have an arithmetic average a $2.00/$3.40 = 58.82% chance of winning.
Now, look at a pick-6 where each of the 64 combinations has equal money bet on it. The P6 takeout is 25%, so a $1 P6 pays $48, not $64. If you can find six horses who have a geometric average 52.46% chance of winning, then your chance of winning the P6 is 52.46%^6 = 2.0833%. Your expected ROI is 2.0833% * $48 = $1. You need to gain a smaller handicapping edge to break even on the P6.
It is enormously more likely that the crowd has made a 2.46% error in the probability of each horse winning versus a 8.82% error. Steve was able to find many more ++EV P6 opportunities than ++EV Win wagers. Flip this around and imagine that Steve was getting paid 47:1 on a P6 ticket where each horse had a 58.82% chance of winning. Fair odds would be around 23:1, so his ROI would be 200%! I don't think Steve claimed an ROI this high. I suppose he could seldom find six races where the crowd was off by huge amounts in the implied probabilities.
The math isn't as straightforward if you making your own sports parlay. Compare someone placing a 6-leg parlay to a handicapper who is parlaying his own winnings. The former pays a higher vigorish up front. The latter is only paying the vig on the bets they place. If they lose the first bet, then they just pay one vig. The effective vig depends on the probabilities of each leg in the intended parlay.
I don't actually know what Steve Christ's record in the Pick 6 is
he may be one of those phenomenal people with talents that few if any others can match
but I do know that the likelihood of finding good bets (bets where the payouts exceeds the true probabilities of the horses winning) in 6 consecutive races is very, very low
just about every serious horseplayer will indicate that to win they have to play very few races picking their spots very carefully
if Christ had one or 2 gigantic hits that put him ahead the sample size may not be large enough to indicate that he truly has an edge on this bet
I googled and could not find his results
I am skeptical, as I am with many horseplayers who have written books
Andrew Beyer, who is regarded by many as racing's greatest scribe reported in the Washington Post that he could no longer beat the game quite a while ago
and he did beat the game for many years and iirc documented his results
I do regard Andrew Beyer as the greatest authority (that I know about) on horse racing
admittedly I don't know much about Christ - I do believe he is an authority on racing - but still I'm skeptical
I gave up trying to beat racing quite a while ago - I only play recreationally now - but I consider myself to be fairly knowledgeable on the subject
I participate in a horse racing forum and as we all know gamblers love to exaggerate - but on this forum almost nobody - I think just one person out of hundreds - claims that they are a long run winner
and these guys are definitely extremely knowledgeable
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I have an autographed copy of "Beyer on Speed: New Strategies for Racetrack Betting" that he signed for me at Saratoga in 1993. He is an expert on speed figures and a good writer, but he never made the kind of money Steve Christ made. That is why Andy sold books.Quote: lilredrooster.
I don't actually know what Steve Christ's record in the Pick 6 is
he may be one of those phenomenal people with talents that few if any others can match
but I do know that the likelihood of finding good bets (bets where the payouts exceeds the true probabilities of the horses winning) in 6 consecutive races is very, very low
just about every serious horseplayer will indicate that to win they have to play very few races picking their spots very carefully
if Christ had one or 2 gigantic hits that put him ahead the sample size may not be large enough to indicate that he truly has an edge on this bet
I googled and could not find his results
I am skeptical, as I am with many horseplayers who have written books
Andrew Beyer, who is regarded by many as racing's greatest scribe reported in the Washington Post that he could no longer beat the game quite a while ago
and he did beat the game for many years and iirc documented his results
I do regard Andrew Beyer as the greatest authority (that I know about) on horse racing
.
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I stand by my math. It is so much easier to find six races where your line is better than the public line by a few percent per race rather than finding a single race where your line is 8-10% better than the public line (depending on the takeout). This is particularly true for horse racing since you are handicapping races in advance when only a tiny fraction of the betting crowd has studied the upcoming races in detail.
You can reverse engineer a pick-3 and see how good the implied line is for the third leg. The line in the win pool is very good by any useful figure of merit. By that same figure of merit, the handicapping of the third leg is much worse and much easier to beat. I used to make easy money on pick-3 bets focusing on handicapping the third leg and assuming the public line for the first leg was very good.
This look-ahead advantage in handicapping parlays is quite different from the original question of whether the parlays have a higher or lower effective vigorish. I welcome anyone who wants to present their own math on the subject.
Mental - if you don't mind my asking
have you yourself played the Pick 6 and been successful________________?______________thanks
as to your posting "the line in the win pool is very good by any useful figure of merit"
actually, it has been shown that the lines in the win pool are much better for the faves than for the shots - by a very large amount
betting every fave in the win pool will still cause a bettor to lose - but he will lose less than what the takeout would indicate if the pool reflected true odds
and the shots will lose much more than the takeout would indicate if the pool reflected true odds
the longer the shot - the poorer the long term results given any large sample size
the link is from Wiki on the favorite/longshot bias
there is much better writing out there on this subject - this is just a quick reference
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Favourite-longshot_bias#:~:text=In%20the%20long%20run%2C%20losing,was%20first%20discovered%20by%20Griffith.
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Yes, I am aware of the long shot bias. It has been there in parimutuel pools as long as I have been alive. The final odds are as good as the public can make them, and the public betting is dominated by large sharp bettors. I used to create lines that had less longshot bias, but longshots are always bad bet. They did not figure into what I was doing at the track. But I was always fighting the proverbial 'wisdom of the crowd' in creating a good line for the favorites and contenders. I was a winning bettor in the place and show pools, but I never beat the win pool straight up.Quote: lilredrooster.
Mental - if you don't mind my asking
have you yourself played the Pick 6 and been successful________________?______________thanks
as to your posting "the line in the win pool is very good by any useful figure of merit"
actually, it has been shown that the lines in the win pool are much better for the faves than for the shots - by a very large amount
betting every fave in the win pool will still cause a bettor to lose - but he will lose less than what the takeout would indicate if the pool reflected true odds
and the shots will lose much more than the takeout would indicate if the pool reflected true odds
the longer the shot - the poorer the long term results given any large sample size
the link is from Wiki on the favorite/longshot bias
there is much better writing out there on this subject - this is just a quick reference
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Favourite-longshot_bias#:~:text=In%20the%20long%20run%2C%20losing,was%20first%20discovered%20by%20Griffith.
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If you think the final parimutuel lines are bad, then which lines are better? A perfect line would assign 100% probability to the eventual winner. No line is ever perfect. Only the lines of a few very astute handicappers are good enough to make them winners.
I used to calculate measures of entropy to compare the win-pool line with the implied line for the second race in the daily double. If the DD pool has an implied probability of 10% for one combo, and the win pool has the horse in the first race at a 50%, then it is implicitly assigning a 20% probability to the horse in the second race. I used a measure of entropy to compare lines when I was doing this seriously. Damned if I remember what the formula was except that it involved logarithms of probabilities and the finishing position of every horse in the race. The win pool line had much less entropy (on average) than the implied win probabilities for the second leg of the DD or the third leg of a pick3. It was also much better than the morning line. From the point of information theory, the win pool was providing a better signal-to-noise ratio (less entropy).
Quote: lilredrooster.
Mental - if you don't mind my asking
have you yourself played the Pick 6 and been successful________________?______________thanks.
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I never even bothered with the pick-4, and the pick-6 was definitely a bridge too far. Steve Christ was deploying 6 figures into pick-6 wagers and covering a lot of combinations.
I was exploiting the crowds tendency to not handicap future legs of the DD and P3 very seriously. It is easier to beat handicappers who are not trying very hard. Almost all of my bets were on combinations where I thought a modest ML favorite in the last leg was likely to dominate the field. Sometimes my anchor horse would go off at even money when they were 3-1 on the ML.
Mental - okay - fair enough - you were clearly better at it than me - I wasn't willing to go into nearly as much depth -
if you were a long term winner at this game - and I believe you're stating that you were - that's quite an accomplishment
not many can claim that - very, very few actually
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Really? Every one of those cranky old punters at the tracked claimed to be winners. Or they would be if they were not always being cheated by the stewards and jockeys.Quote: lilredrooster.
Mental - okay - fair enough - you were clearly better at it than me - I wasn't willing to go into nearly as much depth -
if you were a long term winner at this game - and I believe you're stating that you were - that's quite an accomplishment
not many can claim that - very, very few actually
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I was not handicapping -- just running speed figures through an algorithm and trying to figure out which pools to bet into in a way that I would not be betting against the sharp action. I never dreamed of beating the the win pools straight up. The parimutuel lines were too good and the takeout was too high for my level of effort.
When I played cash poker game professionally, I always tried to play at tables with mostly bad players. Same thing at the track.
25%. Pays +330
33%. Pays +352
50%. Pays +396
100%. Pays + 528
Then if you can find a correlated parlay that they do not ‘punish’ you as much as they should you can do better. The best example was Over assists James harden. Over points Joel Embiid. Or under on both.
One website requires me to bet a 5 leg parlay to get a big profit boost to use later. Imagine this…. Soccer….
Tie
Under 2.5 goals
Team A under 1.5 goals
Total corners under X
Team A corners under Y.
I am NOT saying I get additional payout for Team A under 1.5 goals, but it does count as a leg.
Interesting bet tonight. BetMGM offering ‘90 or more total goals in NHL tonight’ at +120. If you add all the O/U for the games comes to 88. Butttttt….. the O/U on any individual game counts the shootout winner as a goal for that games O/U. I don’t know if it will count towards ‘league wide total goals’. I’m betting a few $ on it. Hoping 89 real goals with a game going to shootout so I’ll know!
Good post.Quote: SOOPOOParlay betting is my bread and butter now. Most of the odds boosts require parlay betting. Two ‘regular’ -110 non correlated bets tends to pay +264. If the casino didn’t want to make money it would pay +300. Common profit boosts….
25%. Pays +330
33%. Pays +352
50%. Pays +396
100%. Pays + 528
Then if you can find a correlated parlay that they do not ‘punish’ you as much as they should you can do better. The best example was Over assists James harden. Over points Joel Embiid. Or under on both.
One website requires me to bet a 5 leg parlay to get a big profit boost to use later. Imagine this…. Soccer….
Tie
Under 2.5 goals
Team A under 1.5 goals
Total corners under X
Team A corners under Y.
I am NOT saying I get additional payout for Team A under 1.5 goals, but it does count as a leg.
Interesting bet tonight. BetMGM offering ‘90 or more total goals in NHL tonight’ at +120. If you add all the O/U for the games comes to 88. Butttttt….. the O/U on any individual game counts the shootout winner as a goal for that games O/U. I don’t know if it will count towards ‘league wide total goals’. I’m betting a few $ on it. Hoping 89 real goals with a game going to shootout so I’ll know!
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I am seeing +265 for two -110 bets on different games and +597 for three -110 bets parlayed (fair odds would be +700?). If the books are using the same odds for correlated and uncorrelated bets, then I can see why you would be able to gain and edge using your knowledge of the strongest correlations.
I don't have enough bandwidth to focus on sports, but I should be able to make better use of boosts and bonus bets that I get from casino play by using a few simple angles like yours.
Yes, the offers I get have you do an initial parlay. BetMGM couldn't care less if I drop dead, though, nothing from them now *at all*.Quote: SOOPOOParlay betting is my bread and butter now. Most of the odds boosts require parlay betting.
Fanatics will have a site in VA soon. Any opinions on them?
Quote: odiousgambitI thought it showed that you are better off making separate bets, no matterQuote: unJon
This is not the right way to think about it. You are calculating the parlay house edge based on the $110. But a parlay is really making one straight bet at $110 and then a second straight bet at $210.
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the offers that a player gets may require you parlay, that's the only time I wouldn't argue. Or maybe I'm wrong , don't see it yet
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House Edge % can be a finicky number. It’s much clearer to just compare $ EV loss to see if things are equivalent, or which way is better.
check out that OP. $55 bet has an EV of about -$2.50, two such would be -$5 ... if you parlayed $110, the EV is almost -$10Quote: unJonQuote: odiousgambitI thought it showed that you are better off making separate bets, no matterQuote: unJon
This is not the right way to think about it. You are calculating the parlay house edge based on the $110. But a parlay is really making one straight bet at $110 and then a second straight bet at $210.
link to original post
the offers that a player gets may require you parlay, that's the only time I wouldn't argue. Or maybe I'm wrong , don't see it yet
link to original post
House Edge % can be a finicky number. It’s much clearer to just compare $ EV loss to see if things are equivalent, or which way is better.
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I'm concluding that if you parlayed two fair bets, you'd be the same in EV, but if there is a house edge, it gets amplified in a parlay
