Sports betting chatter

Quote: odiousgambit

DK is offering a daily 'no sweat' for most players I think

you have to set up a 3-leg same game parlay to get the no-sweat, i'm learning why these places like those SGPs. And though I like to wind up with a bet no more than +200, with the 3-legs I often wind up higher. It's still gotta be +EV, and it's daily too, can't hate that.

Expect losing streaks, but when they hit on the front end, sweet!
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Quote: unJon

Two I like for college today.



Minnesota +3.5. I think Iowa is overrated at this point.

Quote: SOOPOO

I missed a week due to Vegas/Palm Springs trip. I am the rare guy who gambles less in Vegas than at home!

Friend who is NOT an AP does take advantage of DK profit boosts on silly parlays. Not silly this week. He hit Bills ML/Allen over 40 yards rushing/Kincaid TD/Evans TD/Cook over 40 yds rushing. $25 paid around $3k.

I hit a bunch on that game as well, as I had Bucs+ points as well. One bad beat was I had Davis as top yardage receiver. (+1900). He was leading until 3rd stringer Shakir got late reception to overtake Davis.

Not sure what happened. I was getting small profit boosts on DK. 25%,33%, rarely 50%. Max bets usually $10. Occasionally $25. I get back from vacation and have a 100% boost on a $100 bet!? Did everyone get this?
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Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: SOOPOO

I missed a week due to Vegas/Palm Springs trip. I am the rare guy who gambles less in Vegas than at home!

Friend who is NOT an AP does take advantage of DK profit boosts on silly parlays. Not silly this week. He hit Bills ML/Allen over 40 yards rushing/Kincaid TD/Evans TD/Cook over 40 yds rushing. $25 paid around $3k.

I hit a bunch on that game as well, as I had Bucs+ points as well. One bad beat was I had Davis as top yardage receiver. (+1900). He was leading until 3rd stringer Shakir got late reception to overtake Davis.

Not sure what happened. I was getting small profit boosts on DK. 25%,33%, rarely 50%. Max bets usually $10. Occasionally $25. I get back from vacation and have a 100% boost on a $100 bet!? Did everyone get this?
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to you - the awarding of the bonuses or promos is very appealing and interesting

not to me - the only thing interesting to me is whether or not a bettor can be profitable betting ats or on the money line with no bonuses or promos

it's a great challenge - probably 99% of us aren't betting serious money so being profitable from bonuses does nothing for me

and probably very few of us have the skill to be profitable long term with no bonuses or promos - that's why it's such a great challenge

I'm not knocking your way - each to his own - just sayin'

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Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: SOOPOO

I missed a week due to Vegas/Palm Springs trip. I am the rare guy who gambles less in Vegas than at home!

Friend who is NOT an AP does take advantage of DK profit boosts on silly parlays. Not silly this week. He hit Bills ML/Allen over 40 yards rushing/Kincaid TD/Evans TD/Cook over 40 yds rushing. $25 paid around $3k.

I hit a bunch on that game as well, as I had Bucs+ points as well. One bad beat was I had Davis as top yardage receiver. (+1900). He was leading until 3rd stringer Shakir got late reception to overtake Davis.

Not sure what happened. I was getting small profit boosts on DK. 25%,33%, rarely 50%. Max bets usually $10. Occasionally $25. I get back from vacation and have a 100% boost on a $100 bet!? Did everyone get this?
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to you - the awarding of the bonuses or promos is very appealing and interesting

not to me - the only thing interesting to me is whether or not a bettor can be profitable betting ats or on the money line with no bonuses or promos

it's a great challenge - probably 99% of us aren't betting serious money so being profitable from bonuses does nothing for me

and probably very few of us have the skill to be profitable long term with no bonuses or promos - that's why it's such a great challenge

I'm not knocking your way - each to his own - just sayin'

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I KNOW without deposit matches/bonuses/ free bets/profit boosts/etc.. that I would be losing money.

As far as ‘serious money’, that’s a different number for you versus me versus MDawg. If I can make low 5 figures a year pretty easily I’m not gonna stop until they stop me. I don’t do it efficiently, but I’m probably averaging $30 - $50 a day in value. Recently it’s been much higher.

There are others here that are better at this than me, and I’d venture to guess are clearing 6 figures a year.
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Quote: lilredrooster

hunh________???

you make it sound like just about everybody is making money at DraftKings because of bonuses and many are making serious bucks

that's a little hard to swallow

what does DraftKings get out of all of this______?_________are they in it for entertainment_________?

I not gonna question your figures re yourself - but I don't believe you're presenting an accurate picture of all of this -

just about everybody beating DraftKings___________?______________no e***** way

Quote: DRich

Quote: lilredrooster

hunh________???

you make it sound like just about everybody is making money at DraftKings because of bonuses and many are making serious bucks

that's a little hard to swallow

what does DraftKings get out of all of this______?_________are they in it for entertainment_________?

I not gonna question your figures re yourself - but I don't believe you're presenting an accurate picture of all of this -

just about everybody beating DraftKings___________?______________no e***** way

I don't get the impression at all that Soopoo thinks everyone is a winner. Like all gambling most people lose. The casinos know that if they give someone $20 of freeplay that most people will lose it and lose much more. Some people just go in and only play the freeplay and beat the system.
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Quote: SOOPOO

There are others here that are better at this than me, and I’d venture to guess are clearing 6 figures a year.

Quote: lilredrooster

everything he posts is winning winning winning

he never posts about anybody losing

Quote: DRich

Quote: lilredrooster

everything he posts is winning winning winning

he never posts about anybody losing

Why would he post about others if they are not working with him? From everything he writes it all seems very believable and I would think anybody with his discipline could do it. If I lived in a state where I could use Draftkings I would probably be doing exactly what he is and I would expect similar results.

There are many systems that are easy to beat at the small level if you are disciplined. I used to drive for three hours to cash out freeplay and I didn't play a single dollar more than my freeplay. I would drive 90 minutes, park the car, be in the casino for about 20 minutes, get in the car and drive 90 minutes home. I probably did that at least 50 times and not a single time did I go home without a profit. One time it was only $5 but my average take was closer to $300 per trip.
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Quote: SOOPOO

of course most people lose at online sports betting! Just like most people lose at blackjack. Just not the APs who have it figured out.

Quote: SOOPOO

There are others 𝙃𝙀𝙍𝙀 that are better at this than me, and I’d venture to guess are clearing 6 figures a year.

Quote: lilredrooster

\

Quote: SOOPOO

There are others 𝙃𝙀𝙍𝙀 that are better at this than me, and I’d venture to guess are clearing 6 figures a year.

"𝙃𝙀𝙍𝙀" you say - right 𝙃𝙀𝙍𝙀 at WOV_____6 figures - hunh - maybe 3 or 4 hundred thousand a year____________?_____________go ahead and double down on that remark

and you fail to address all of the thousands and thousands of complaints against DraftKings who you are pumping up as the greatest thing since sliced bread

Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: SOOPOO

of course most people lose at online sports betting! Just like most people lose at blackjack. Just not the APs who have it figured out.

are you joking
comparing what you are doing to counting cards at blackjack
you make it look so easy - and maybe it is at the low level

but I dunno - it just seem TOO easy - like there's some part of the story that is missing -

becoming an AP at blackjack is difficult to say the least - what you're doing is not even remotely closely in difficulty compared to what a blackjack AP does

and you failed to address this ridiculous remark:

Quote: SOOPOO

There are others 𝙃𝙀𝙍𝙀 that are better at this than me, and I’d venture to guess are clearing 6 figures a year.

"𝙃𝙀𝙍𝙀" you say - right 𝙃𝙀𝙍𝙀 at WOV_____6 figures - hunh - maybe 3 or 4 hundred thousand a year____________?_____________go ahead and double down on that remark

and you fail to address all of the thousands and thousands of complaints against DraftKings who you are pumping up as the greatest thing since sliced bread

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Quote: DRich

Hopefully this year they will allow sports betting again in Florida. I would be very happy having a low five figure side job. This working and travelling for a living stinks.
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Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: billryan

I've no doubt a dedicated bettor could squeeze out $10-15,000 a year but it would have to be a labor of love. I can't see anyone pulling $100,000 plus unless they are leading a team and putting in a lot of hours.
When sports betting came to Arizona, the offers were everywhere but most were complicated and dried up after a few months.
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Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: SOOPOO

of course most people lose at online sports betting! Just like most people lose at blackjack. Just not the APs who have it figured out.

are you joking
comparing what you are doing to counting cards at blackjack
you make it look so easy - and maybe it is at the low level

but I dunno - it just seem TOO easy - like there's some part of the story that is missing -

becoming an AP at blackjack is difficult to say the least - what you're doing is not even remotely closely in difficulty compared to what a blackjack AP does

and you failed to address this ridiculous remark:

Quote: SOOPOO

There are others 𝙃𝙀𝙍𝙀 that are better at this than me, and I’d venture to guess are clearing 6 figures a year.

"𝙃𝙀𝙍𝙀" you say - right 𝙃𝙀𝙍𝙀 at WOV_____6 figures - hunh - maybe 3 or 4 hundred thousand a year____________?_____________go ahead and double down on that remark

and you fail to address all of the thousands and thousands of complaints against DraftKings who you are pumping up as the greatest thing since sliced bread

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I believe Mental has mentioned large wins using bonus type play.

I’ll give you my experience with DraftKings. My initial sign on bonus was great. One of those $5k risk free bets. Of course it was only ‘risk free’ because I knew how to make it risk free! If memory serves me correct I turned it into around $3k using hedges on other sites. I shortly was offered VIP status. The profit boosts were great, some at $250 a bet. Then there were the ‘missions’ which gave me free bets, profit boosts, etc…. To use a silly phrase here on WoV, ‘I paid my bills’ using my DK winnings. Then, after a constant and consistent winning pattern, I was no longer a VIP. The host I had no longer answered my texts. And I have not had a ‘mission’ in around a year.
So instead of making 6 figures a year it will be low 5 figures with what offers I still get. To me, this is NOT a complainable event with DK. They REASONABLY realized that it was not wise to keep offering ME all these bonuses.

As far as DK overall, I’ve never had a problem withdrawing money. And the few customer service issues/glitches have been ALL resolved to my satisfaction.

As of right now my 5 books in order of value to me are
BetRivers
DraftKings
Caesars
BetMGM
FanDual
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Quote: SOOPOO

I haven’t withdrawn in a while, so today put in 4 withdrawals. DK and FD were basically instantaneous. Waiting on 3-5 business days for Caesars and BetRivers. Didn’t want to lower my MGM balance so no try.

Mental’s point of ‘only $100 a week so not worth it’ concept is valid. If I was still working and time was more valuable to me I wouldn’t be doing some of this. These $5 risk free bets which I am getting lots of are probably only worth $2 a pop. I can easily understand why most people just don’t want to be bothered.

My DK ‘prize chest’ this week was worth between $7 and $8. Anytime someone wants to just GIVE me $7 for pushing a button I think I’ll push the button.

That $7 was ONE Diet Pepsi for wifey at Paris pool.
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Quote: odiousgambit

I'm a piker, so I don't know how you get treated when you bet big. I didn't get a 100% boost for $100 bet, for example

I can say that for a piker, DK in VA is a place where it seems you can keep it +EV but nothing exciting for right now. Early on it was pretty sweet, tons of 'no sweat' bets, but that is scaled back ... on the other hand, not gone either.

As for Soopoo statements, the only one that flabbergasted me is the one where he said he is winning some pretty nice cash and they aren't reporting that to the IRS. They're not? Why would they hold back? It's the agreement they have with the state and it's in the T&C with a low threshold.

That reporting business is the reason I'm just a piker even though it's +EV very strongly at times. Man, I really thought they would be good for their word on that snitching to the IRS ... just don't trust it won't happen
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Quote: SOOPOO

I don’t recall me ever saying they don’t report anything to the IRS.

Quote:

I am pretty sure if you hit a big parlay (better than 300-1) you will have a form generated. What I understand it to be is that ‘regular’ wins or losses are not reported to the IRS. I certainly could be wrong. Just like land based casino gambling, it is the gambler’s responsibility to report his gambling winnings to the IRS.
I’m happy to pay taxes on easy winnings. Heck, people pay taxes on hard earn money!

Show me a T and C that says an online book will be reporting winnings to the IRS, not just W2-G type events? I ‘think’ you won’t find such.
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Quote:

10.5 Your acceptance of these Agreements serves as acknowledgement that the Form 1099-Misc may be issued by Us by January 31 following the year of the receipt of a prize consisting of cash or merchandise for which a 12 month accumulated value of six hundred US dollars ($600) or more won by using the Services are subject to the IRS regulations.

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: odiousgambit

I've got some questions for you, Soopoo, and I'm honestly just curious

you posted I believe, 5 figures total to the positive with your online sports betting, congratulations!

how many W2g's did you get?

I assume though your experience overall, after taxes, was still +EV. How close a call is it?

do you attribute your success to playing off one online site against another?
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No W2 G’s. None of my bets are that large (after the initial ‘risk free’ bets). And none are at that extreme odds.

As far as taxes, all they do is reduce how much I make. I’ll give a hypothetical. If I made $30k and have to pay 20% in taxes on that it just means I cleared $24k. If I made $15k I would have cleared $12k.

Answering the previous post…. I think I am being throttled back. I’m certainly getting either fewer or smaller +EV opportunities.

As far as ‘playing one side against the other’, I do do that sometimes. But understand, real APs like Axel and Wiz, would frown upon that! I’ll give a simple example. I had an opportunity to pick ‘team to score first in the super bowl’ boosted to +150. So my $10 bet will pay out a total of $25. The +EV was $5.
But I could bet on another site at the prevailing rate (which for even bets is -110) on the other team. So I could bet $13 to win $12 (rounded) for a payout of $25. So if you notice I win $2 NO MATTER WHAT. But Wiz and Axel will chastise me for turning $5 in EV into $2. I do believe that it is important that I make the negative EV hedge bets for longevity. The site I make the -EV bet just sees it as a typical loser bet.
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Quote: odiousgambit

Quote:

10.5 Your acceptance of these Agreements serves as acknowledgement that the Form 1099-Misc may be issued by Us by January 31 following the year of the receipt of a prize consisting of cash or merchandise for which a 12 month accumulated value of six hundred US dollars ($600) or more won by using the Services are subject to the IRS regulations.

Emphasis mine, other T&C have it.
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Quote: odiousgambit

Quote: SOOPOO

I don’t recall me ever saying they don’t report anything to the IRS.

I might search upthread , or not

Quote:

I am pretty sure if you hit a big parlay (better than 300-1) you will have a form generated. What I understand it to be is that ‘regular’ wins or losses are not reported to the IRS. I certainly could be wrong. Just like land based casino gambling, it is the gambler’s responsibility to report his gambling winnings to the IRS.
I’m happy to pay taxes on easy winnings. Heck, people pay taxes on hard earn money!

Show me a T and C that says an online book will be reporting winnings to the IRS, not just W2-G type events? I ‘think’ you won’t find such.
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well here is what is in the T&C for BetMGM in Virginia

Quote:

10.5 Your acceptance of these Agreements serves as acknowledgement that the Form 1099-Misc may be issued by Us by January 31 following the year of the receipt of a prize consisting of cash or merchandise for which a 12 month accumulated value of six hundred US dollars ($600) or more won by using the Services are subject to the IRS regulations.

Emphasis mine, other T&C have it

"12 month accumulated value" seems to me to mean netting a mere $50 per month overall on average, and is the opposite of "just reporting any big wins". I don't believe MGM wants to have to deal with that, and had to agree to it to make VA happy. Is this an "only Virginia" thing?
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Quote: Mental

Quote: odiousgambit

Quote:

10.5 Your acceptance of these Agreements serves as acknowledgement that the Form 1099-Misc may be issued by Us by January 31 following the year of the receipt of a prize consisting of cash or merchandise for which a 12 month accumulated value of six hundred US dollars ($600) or more won by using the Services are subject to the IRS regulations.

Emphasis mine, other T&C have it.
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The phrase "receipt of a prize consisting of cash or merchandise" refers to sweepstakes/tournament/contest prizes for which you paid no money. Winnings from bets do not qualify. This has always been a reporting requirement for contest prizes. Whenever a 1099 has been issued in my name, the B&M casino has always sent me a copy after year end. I have yet to receive one from an online casino. They do not seem to feel that free slot play won in leaderboard contests merits a 1099. I have won/earned up to $12,000 in FSP from a single online leaderboard with no 1099. I have received over $20K of cumulative FSP from a B&M casino in one year and never got a 1099. However, $1000 in slot tournament wins will require a signature and generate a 1099. I even had a 1099 from cumulative tournament wins over $600.
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Quote: avianrandy

Talked with a local sports guy who works ethe radio station. He had won $250 on Texas to win the world series.He said his profit was $115 meaning the juice he paid was $135. Have not placed a sports wager in forever,but does seem kind of high?
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Quote: SOOPOO

The books have an idiotic way to say things. If I bet $100, at even money, when the bet is paid off it will say ‘won $200 on FanDuel!’ You and I know I really only won $100. So it is possible the guy bet $135 as a slight favorite, in actuality won $115, but the site says ‘won $250’.

Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: SOOPOO

The books have an idiotic way to say things. If I bet $100, at even money, when the bet is paid off it will say ‘won $200 on FanDuel!’ You and I know I really only won $100. So it is possible the guy bet $135 as a slight favorite, in actuality won $115, but the site says ‘won $250’.

I don't believe it's idiotic
I believe it's a deliberate misrepresentation for the purpose of fooling inexperienced bettors
it's 100% clear to me that this is blatant false advertising
even though it might seem obvious to us what is happening it may not be obvious to some newbies
the books are sharks doing everything possible to crush players
there are going to be lots, tens of thousands, who become compulsive, addicted gamblers because of the widespread legalization of online betting
for the very few who are sharp it's a good thing
but not for the vast majority
the gutless movers and shakers were unwilling to take a stand against it because it would cause their popularity to decline
this is reality
on this site, I believe the vast majority are somewhat intelligent and gamble responsibly and use the site wisely to help them
but that does not reflect the wider reality of so many bettors who really don't have a clue what's going on

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