Sports betting chatter
Quote: lilredrooster.
I'll post a pick - haven't done much lately but I have a + history here -
my fave kind of MLB pick - an extreme fave - both the Dodgers team and the listed pitcher are much the better
my belief - even though it's a smallish payout I believe it's an overlay because gamblers being gamblers greatly prefer large payouts to small ones
you can get a much larger payout on the run line - 1.5 - but I don't do that - I believe the vig is considerably higher on the run line
here we go - have fun watching it tank making me look like an idiot_____________(-:\
Dodgers -250 over Rockies
here is a great example of the books strategy of short paying the bettor trying to get a bigger payout - this time on the run line
a straight bet on Toronto is priced at -165 at Wynn and the underdog will pay +150
on the run line line - 1.5 at Wynn - the Orioles will pay -165 - but the underdog will only pay +140
actually, I believe they used some calculation to short pay both the fave and the underdog by an equal amount compared to a straight bet
.
link to original post
You can’t be deemed an idiot for making that Dodgers bet no matter the outcome. You are just guessing that the outcome you desire, a dodgers win, given the pre game circumstances you are aware of, will occur more frequently than 5 out of 7 games. 5/7 is a push. 4/7 or less you lose. 6/7 or more you win.
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: lilredrooster.
I'll post a pick - haven't done much lately but I have a + history here -
my fave kind of MLB pick - an extreme fave - both the Dodgers team and the listed pitcher are much the better
my belief - even though it's a smallish payout I believe it's an overlay because gamblers being gamblers greatly prefer large payouts to small ones
you can get a much larger payout on the run line - 1.5 - but I don't do that - I believe the vig is considerably higher on the run line
here we go - have fun watching it tank making me look like an idiot_____________(-:\
Dodgers -250 over Rockies
here is a great example of the books strategy of short paying the bettor trying to get a bigger payout - this time on the run line
a straight bet on Toronto is priced at -165 at Wynn and the underdog will pay +150
on the run line line - 1.5 at Wynn - the Orioles will pay -165 - but the underdog will only pay +140
actually, I believe they used some calculation to short pay both the fave and the underdog by an equal amount compared to a straight bet
.
link to original post
You can’t be deemed an idiot for making that Dodgers bet no matter the outcome. You are just guessing that the outcome you desire, a dodgers win, given the pre game circumstances you are aware of, will occur more frequently than 5 out of 7 games. 5/7 is a push. 4/7 or less you lose. 6/7 or more you win.
link to original post
guessing would be basically correct for what I am doing - but I would at least give myself credit for an educated guess
but I have no doubt that a much more sophisticated calculation can be made using the home and away past records of the teams and the pitchers stats
and I know - I can't take credit for picks I have not posted here - but I've privately tracked more than 100 of these types of picks and they have done well
.
Quote: lilredrooster
guessing would be basically correct for what I am doing - but I would at least give myself credit for an educated guess
but I have no doubt that a much more sophisticated calculation can be made using the home and away past records of the teams and the pitchers stats
and I know - I can't take credit for picks I have not posted here - but I've privately tracked more than 100 of these types of picks and they have done well
.
I will be rooting for the mighty Colorado Rockies.
The Rockies have not lost a home game in over six months.
Starting Pitcher German Marquez has not lost a start in over six months.
Shortstop Alex Trejo is batting over 666 this year.
They are a team of destiny. GO ROCKIES!!!!
21 year old Anthony Volpe overcame incredible odds to win the starting shortstop role for the Yankees and looks like he belongs, so far.
He's the first Yankee rookie to steal a base in his first three games, and is quickly becoming a fan favorite. He used to play little League in upper Manhattan before his family moved to New Jersey.
Quote: billryanIt's early, but stolen bases are up over 100% for the season. I find a stolen base attempt one of the most excitting plays in baseball
I agree, stolen bases are one of the best parts of the game. I would rather see a highlight of a stolen base on Sportscenter as opposed to a home run.
I don't really remember Lou Brock as he was a little before my time but Ricky Henderson is still one of my favorite players.
Quote: DRichQuote: billryanIt's early, but stolen bases are up over 100% for the season. I find a stolen base attempt one of the most excitting plays in baseball
I agree, stolen bases are one of the best parts of the game. I would rather see a highlight of a stolen base on Sportscenter as opposed to a home run.
I don't really remember Lou Brock as he was a little before my time but Ricky Henderson is still one of my favorite players.
link to original post
Baseball had been moving on from defensive catchers, with teams sticking guys with bats behind the plate. This should be an eye-opener.
While Henderson could be great when he wanted, the guy who got me excited, early in his career, was Tim Raines. He was a real game changer.
Quote: billryanQuote: DRichQuote: billryanIt's early, but stolen bases are up over 100% for the season. I find a stolen base attempt one of the most excitting plays in baseball
I agree, stolen bases are one of the best parts of the game. I would rather see a highlight of a stolen base on Sportscenter as opposed to a home run.
I don't really remember Lou Brock as he was a little before my time but Ricky Henderson is still one of my favorite players.
link to original post
Baseball had been moving on from defensive catchers, with teams sticking guys with bats behind the plate. This should be an eye-opener.
While Henderson could be great when he wanted, the guy who got me excited, early in his career, was Tim Raines. He was a real game changer.
link to original post
I got to golf with Tim Raines a fewyears back. I was with a friend and Tim asked if he could join us. Didn’t know who he was. He had a severe limp. His swing was so smooth, on the first hole my buddy asked him if he ever played sports. He said something like ‘a little bit’. He had introduced himself as ‘Tim’. It clicked, and I said ‘are you freaking Tim Raines?’ He said yes. He was working as a scout and was in town for Buffalo Bisons minor league baseball. He needed a hip replacement, but didn’t mind me joking that I could beat the second greatest base stealer in history in a race! A REALLY nice guy, I wish him well. I’m pretty sure at the time we golfed I told my friend we were golfing with a hall of famer , but he corrected us and said he wasn’t in. He got in a year or two later!
Thanks for the memory.
But when I read stuff like this...it sends chills up my spine.
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HSRiddles
"Well boys - this was a tough one to watch, I probably avoid unders for POTDs as well not because this one missed, but because rooting for teams to miss is not very fun as a viewer."
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When handicapping, you should take emotion out of it.
a little bit more on my estimation that my pick of Dodgers over the Rockies at -250 may be an advantageous bet
the Dodgers pitcher, Julio Arias is 18-7 in his last 25 decisions - 72% wins
at -250 that looks like slightly better than a break even bet against average opponents - you must assume that in those 25 decisions he was pitching overall against average opponents when you averaged them all out
but today he is pitching against the Rockies who were 27-54 when away last year - way, way below average
it surely looks like the bet has an edge
the unknown is that the Rockies may have improved or gotten worse, and the Dodgers may have improved or gotten worse
the same is true of both pitchers
but that is a zero sum thing - it may help you or it may hurt you - it does not make the bet any better or any worse
but I have changed my mind and will sacrifice paying slightly more vig on the run line
and pick the Dodgers -1.5 - 120_________the profit if there is a win is more than double
.
Quote: AxelWolfAgain, I will say I have no clue if HSRiddles has a winning method overall or not. I have bet some and missed many. Talk about running bad, I seem to mostly bet the ones that he loses, I'm personally a net loser. God bless you guys who have been betting every game. I hope you guys are betting a fair amount. (?)
But when I read stuff like this...it sends chills up my spine.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HSRiddles
"Well boys - this was a tough one to watch, I probably avoid unders for POTDs as well not because this one missed, but because rooting for teams to miss is not very fun as a viewer."
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
When handicapping, you should take emotion out of it.
link to original post
He’s just talking about his POTD. He does a full card each day for every game. The POTD is meant to be a high probability pick that is fun to post on social media and tail with a group. I think he is going to stop the POTD because of the hate he’s been getting for the streak of losses.
I’ve joined his discord where he posts a lot about the reasoning behind picks. I don’t think he makes picks emotionally.
In any case, I am just looking for half decent picks to use with promotions. I think his record speaks for itself. It’s better than I could do with my own research anyway.
Quote:**4/04/2023 - Model Card Picks (Sentiment Model & My Research) @everyone **
Model Card is subject to change up until the game starts due to injuries, so lock in at your own risk, always do your own DD on injuries to be safe. Lines with an asterisk and bolded have been updated (new line or new units).
NOTE: We are testing dropping unit sizes moving forward to be better in line with confidence. 0.5 - 2U will be the range, with rare 3 which w ill be limited to 65-70% confidence, which may never happen.
**NHL🏒 **
Vegas Golden Knights ML | 1.5U | -145
Avalanche 60min ML | 1U | -147
Canadians vs. Redwings | O6.5 | 1U | -110
Calgary -1.5 | 0.5U | -155
Vancouver vs. Seattle O6.5 | 0.5U | -135
Knights vs. Predators O6 | O.25U | -110
**NBA🏀 **
Magic +5 | 1.5U | -110
Nuggets -9 | 1U | -110
Celtics +2 | 1U | -110
Raptors -14.5 | 1U | -110
Suns -19 | 1U | -110
Grizzlies -17.5 | 0.5U | -110
Bucks -13.5 | 0.5U | -110
Pelicans vs. Kings U236 | O.5U | -110
Spurs vs. Suns O235.5 | O.5U | -110
**MLB⚾ **
Padres -0.5 F5 | 1U | -147
Cardinals ML | 1U | -140
Rays vs. Nationals O9 | 1U | -120
Dodgers -1.5 | O.5U | -125
Cubs -1.5 | O.5U | +125
Mariners -0.5 F5 | O.5U | -140
Jays vs. Royals F5 O5.5 | O.5U | -110
**NRFI Parlay 0.5U ⚾ ** (+413)
Arizona vs. San Diego NRFI |
Minnesota vs. Miami NRFI
Cleveland vs. Oakland NRFI
There's a FD line for "One of Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas or Max Homa to Win" the Masters. They're offering +750
Individually, the odds I see for those people are: +1032, +2527 and +3400.
How do you compare their individuals odds to the +750 offered for ANY of the three to win?
Quote: lilredrooster.
a little bit more on my estimation that my pick of Dodgers over the Rockies at -250 may be an advantageous bet
the Dodgers pitcher, Julio Arias is 18-7 in his last 25 decisions - 72% wins
at -250 that looks like slightly better than a break even bet against average opponents - you must assume that in those 25 decisions he was pitching overall against average opponents when you averaged them all out
but today he is pitching against the Rockies who were 27-54 when away last year - way, way below average
it surely looks like the bet has an edge
the unknown is that the Rockies may have improved or gotten worse, and the Dodgers may have improved or gotten worse
the same is true of both pitchers
but that is a zero sum thing - it may help you or it may hurt you - it does not make the bet any better or any worse
but I have changed my mind and will sacrifice paying slightly more vig on the run line
and pick the Dodgers -1.5 - 120_________the profit if there is a win is more than double
.
link to original post
Don’t mean to burst your bubble, but if he is 18-7 in his last 25 decisions, that might include 45 games. Meaning he had 20 no decisions. If his team is 10-10 in those 20 games he’s 28-17. That’s only 62%. You’d be a BIG loser if you bet his last 45 games at -250. I of course don’t actually know if it’s 20. But you get the point.
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: lilredrooster.
a little bit more on my estimation that my pick of Dodgers over the Rockies at -250 may be an advantageous bet
the Dodgers pitcher, Julio Arias is 18-7 in his last 25 decisions - 72% wins
at -250 that looks like slightly better than a break even bet against average opponents - you must assume that in those 25 decisions he was pitching overall against average opponents when you averaged them all out
but today he is pitching against the Rockies who were 27-54 when away last year - way, way below average
it surely looks like the bet has an edge
the unknown is that the Rockies may have improved or gotten worse, and the Dodgers may have improved or gotten worse
the same is true of both pitchers
but that is a zero sum thing - it may help you or it may hurt you - it does not make the bet any better or any worse
but I have changed my mind and will sacrifice paying slightly more vig on the run line
and pick the Dodgers -1.5 - 120_________the profit if there is a win is more than double
.
link to original post
Don’t mean to burst your bubble, but if he is 18-7 in his last 25 decisions, that might include 45 games. Meaning he had 20 no decisions. If his team is 10-10 in those 20 games he’s 28-17. That’s only 62%. You’d be a BIG loser if you bet his last 45 games at -250. I of course don’t actually know if it’s 20. But you get the point.
link to original post
Julio Arias actually pitched in 31 games last year - very detailed stats are available at baseballreference.com
too much work to capture every single stat
Arias had the best ERA in the National League last year - 2.16 - tremendous - and way, way better than the opposing pitcher
that was a clincher for me which I didn't mention in my OP - my bad
.
One reason for not keeping up here: my BetMGM account, the only one I use, has gone niggardly on me. I used to get constant offers for what they incorrectly called 'no risk' bets [they were second-chance bets with risk]. Still, these were mightily +EV and I miss them: they are gone now. Is it just me?
As a result I withdrew my money ... just a small amount left in, in case I wanted to make an impulsive bet. Ever once in a while an offer for a parley boost comes by. Most of the time I consider the boost to change the bet to something close to a fair bet, probably -EV yet. And the wait until you hit one doesn't fit well with keeping only a little money there. It was drying up.
Well! Lately instead of the no risk offers something else has been showing up ... a "bonus bet". This seems to be something comparable to betting comps you get at a casino, in other words, comp offers based on theoretical loss. It's a freebet coming from the blue! I've built back the bankroll with this.
Has anyone had similar experience? I have to wonder if the misnamed 'free bet' stuff had the regulators getting on their butts? [I had thought they were not wanting my action anymore]
Vegas Golden Knights ML | 1.5U | -145 ❌
Avalanche 60min ML | 1U | -147❌
Canadians vs. Redwings | O6.5 | 1U | -110❌
Calgary -1.5 | 0.5U | -155❌
Vancouver vs. Seattle O6.5 | 0.5U | -135✅
Knights vs. Predators O6 | O.25U | -110❌
**NBA🏀 **
Magic +5 | 1.5U | -110✅
Nuggets -9 | 1U | -110❌
Celtics +2 | 1U | -110⚠️
Raptors -14.5 | 1U | -110✅
Suns -19 | 1U | -110✅
Grizzlies -17.5 | 0.5U | -110❌
Bucks -13.5 | 0.5U | -110❌
Pelicans vs. Kings U236 | O.5U | -110✅
Spurs vs. Suns O235.5 | O.5U | -110❌
**MLB⚾ **
Padres -0.5 F5 | 1U | -147❌
Cardinals ML | 1U | -140❌
Rays vs. Nationals O9 | 1U | -120✅
Dodgers -1.5 | O.5U | -125✅
Cubs -1.5 | O.5U | +125✅
Mariners -0.5 F5 | O.5U | -140✅
Jays vs. Royals F5 O5.5 | O.5U | -110❌
**NRFI Parlay 0.5U ⚾ ** (+413)✅
Arizona vs. San Diego NRFI | ✅
Minnesota vs. Miami NRFI✅
Cleveland vs. Oakland NRFI✅
riddles didn't post a potd yesterday and not yet today - not that I could find
I saw one of his posts where he seemed upset at the posted criticism after a loss - like some moronic follower is expecting him to win 90 %
I have tracked his potd since 3/17 and he is 10-6-1__________62.5% winners not counting the push_______that's a 19.3% r.o.i.
all of these picks paid right around the traditional 10/11 - some a little more - maybe a couple a little less at some books
all of the lines he quoted were available the morning that I tracked him except one - the Lakers game I think 3/22 - he quoted + 2 and I could only find + 1.5
+ 2 on that game was probably available somewhere earlier
I was hoping to track 50 of his potd to get a somewhat clear pic - but I don't know if he will continue to post them
I am less confident when he posts a lot of picks for the day - I would guess he still may be a winner - but much less of an edge
but - anyway - my estimation of him is positive - I believe he does have considerable handicapping skills and that he can be valuable to those who follow him
.
Quote: lilredrooster.
riddles didn't post a potd yesterday and not yet today - not that I could find
I saw one of his posts where he seemed upset at the posted criticism after a loss - like some moronic follower is expecting him to win 90 %
I have tracked his potd since 3/17 and he is 10-6-1__________62.5% winners not counting the push
all of these picks paid right around the traditional 10/11 - some a little more - maybe a couple a little less at some books
all of the lines he quoted were available the morning that I tracked him except one - the Lakers game I think 3/22 - he quoted + 2 and I could only find + 1.5
+ 2 on that game was probably available earlier
I was hoping to track 50 of his potd to get a somewhat clear pic - but I don't know if he will continue to post them
I am less confident when he posts a lot of picks for the day - I would guess he still may be a winner - but much less of an edge
but - anyway - my estimation of him is positive - I believe he does have considerable handicapping skills and that he can be valuable to those who follow him
.
link to original post
You might want to check out his discord server. There are about 3000 members, lots of info and chat. Here is what he said about POTD yesterday
Looks like we are on the same page. If one was guaranteed to beat the vig in sports they would clean up on the bonuses/promos.Quote: gamerfreak
In any case, I am just looking for half decent picks to use with promotions. It’s better than I could do with my own research anyway.
]
**Date:** April 5, 2023 | 8:00PM EST
**Game: ** Grizzlies vs. Pelicans -5 (Up to -6.5)
**POTD Record: **35-14-2
**PICK REASON:**
1. Grizzlies are playing back to back games now having locked in (essentially) the #2 seed after last night's win. I expect them to begin resting a few starters, including Ja and JJJ, as they aim to get ready for playoffs
2. The Grizzlies barely won in their game last night against the Blazers being tied late in the 4th quarter. In a game I'm sure they thought would be a blow out, they actually ended up having to play their 3 best starters (being JJJ, Ja and Bane) for over 30 minutes each. I imagine they will rest atleast one of them today, or play them fewer minutes - there is no reason to risk an injury this late in the season in what is an essentially meaningless game.
3. Pelicans are coming off a rough game against the Kings, of which the Kings pushed extra hard in order to lock down the division. The pelicans are now 1.5 games back of the Warriors and 0.5 games back of the Timberwolves, and I expect them to give a performance at home to try to avoid the play-in at all costs
4. Pelicans have covered the spread in 7 of its last 8 games, only missing it in their last game against a driven and talented Kings team.
5. Grizzlies are 1-4 ATS in their last 5, and 2-3 in their last 5 road games, many of which included the return of Ja. Although Grizzlies have done okay with Ja, they are likely to not play bane/JJJ either today, or atleast play them fewer minutes.
6. Memphis is having to travel from their home court to an away court on a back to back, whilst the pelicans have the advantage of staying home. Grizzlies starters will likely be even more tired/poorly rested, and more likely to play fewer minutes/get sat
7. Although Memphis are 2-1 this season against Pelicans, they are 1-6ATS in their last games on the road against the pelicans.
Overall - I expect two teams coming into this game with very different mindsets, and the pelicans to take a dominate win at home to lock in their playoff berth
Model Card is subject to change up until the game starts due to injuries, so lock in at your own risk, always do your own DD on injuries to be safe. Lines with an asterisk and bolded have been updated (new line or new units).
NOTE: We are testing dropping unit sizes moving forward to be better in line with confidence. 0.5 - 2U will be the range, with rare 3 which w ill be limited to 65-70% confidence, which may never happen.
**NHL🏒 **
Rangers vs. Tampa U6 | 1U | -115
**NBA🏀 **
Pelicans -5 | 2U | -110 [POTD]
Knicks -4.5 | 1.5U | -110
Raptors +3 | 1U | -110
Brooklyn vs. Detroit O219 | 1U | -110
Clippers vs. Lakers O231.5 | 0.5U | -110
**MLB⚾ **
Angels -1.5 | 1U | +100
White Sox ML | 1U | -135
Reds F5 ML | O.5U | -110
Rangers -1.5 | O.5U | +110
Jays O4.5 Runs | O.5U | -120
Astros -1.5 | O.5U | -115
Braves vs. Cardinals O9 | O.5U | -110
**NRFI Parlay 0.5U ⚾ (+110)**
Angels vs. Mariners NRFI
Guardians vs Athletics NRFI
In case people are looking for props, these won't be included in the model card results - but including in the event people are looking for these:
**NRFIS:**
Angels vs. Mariners NRFI
Guardians vs Athletics NRFI
**NBA PROPS:**
Pascal Siakam O12.5 RA (RAPTORS)
Keegan Murray O2.5 3PM (KINGS)
Demar DeRozan O 0.5 Steals (BULLS)
**NHL PROPS:**
Leon Draisaitl O1.5 Points (OILERS)
Mikhail Sergachev O 0.5 Points (LIGHTNING)
Frank Vatrano O 2.5 SOG (DUCKS)
**MLB PROPS:**
Matt Chapman O1.5 Hits and Runs and RBIs (JAYS)
Eugenio Suarez O0.5 Total Bases (MARINERS)
Steven Kwan O 0.5 1st Bases (GUARDIANS)
gamerfreak:
I couldn't find this stuff searching on my own
can you please post the link for his POTD
I used to be able to find it but not anymore
thanks
.
Quote: lilredrooster.
gamerfreak:
I couldn't find this stuff searching on my own
can you please post the link for his POTD
I used to be able to find it but not anymore
thanks
.
link to original post
You need discord. If you have that installed and click the discord link on one of the previous POTD I’ve pasted here, it should take you right to it.
Quote: TinManIs there a formula for evaluating a bet when it's stated as "A or B or C" etc? That is, there are parlay calculators when you have the odds for A, B, and C individually and you want to know the fair price for a parlay for all of them, but I don't know how to evaluate the opposite.
There's a FD line for "One of Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas or Max Homa to Win" the Masters. They're offering +750
Individually, the odds I see for those people are: +1032, +2527 and +3400.
How do you compare their individuals odds to the +750 offered for ANY of the three to win?
link to original post
You can calculate what you would bet on each one individually to get the same result if any of them win.
For example, let R be the bet on Rahm, T the bet on Thomas, and H the bet on Homa.
If Rahm wins, that's 10.32 R - T - H; if Thomas wins, that's 25.27 T - R - H; if Homa wins, that's 34 H - R - T
You can add R + T + H to each of those; they would be equal when 11.32 R = 26.27 T = 35 H
One set of numbers that works is R = 26.27 x 35, T = 11.32 x 35, and H = 11.32 x 26.27; if, say, Rahm wins, you win 10.32 x 26.27 x 35 - 11.32 x 35 - 11.32 x 26.27 = 8795.1476. Since you bet 26.27 x 35 + 11.32 x 35 + 11.32 x 26.27 = 1613.0264, the odds are 8795.1476 / 1613.0264 = about +545
Discord, what's a discord? I'm still using AIM chat and DSL. 😂Quote: gamerfreakQuote: lilredrooster.
gamerfreak:
I couldn't find this stuff searching on my own
can you please post the link for his POTD
I used to be able to find it but not anymore
thanks
.
link to original post
You need discord. If you have that installed and click the discord link on one of the previous POTD I’ve pasted here, it should take you right to it.
link to original post
**NHL🏒 **
Rangers vs. Tampa U6 | 1U | -115 ❌
**NBA🏀 **
Pelicans -5 | 2U | -110 [POTD]✅
Knicks -4.5 | 1.5U | -110✅
Raptors +3 | 1U | -110❌
Brooklyn vs. Detroit O219 | 1U | -110✅
Clippers vs. Lakers O231.5 | 0.5U | -110✅
**MLB⚾ **
Angels -1.5 | 1U | +100❌
White Sox ML | 1U | -135✅
Reds F5 ML | O.5U | -110 💧 game postponed
Rangers -1.5 | O.5U | +110✅
Jays O4.5 Runs | O.5U | -120❌
Astros -1.5 | O.5U | -115✅
Braves vs. Cardinals O9 | O.5U | -110❌
**NRFI Parlay 0.5U ⚾ (+110)**
Angels vs. Mariners NRFI❌
Guardians vs Athletics NRFI✅
I tried the reddit discord - had all kinds of issues with it - I'm giving it up - obviously, I'm not super great with tech
I'm going to post some of my own picks at the link if anybody wants to take a look
I've done well in the past - no guarantees of course
today's pick - Braves - 160 over Padres
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?p=2868674#post2868674
.
I used to be a monthly subscriber to see network. A nice perk was being able to watch the pay per views in essence for free for being a monthly subscriber. I wonder if subscriber will be able to do the same thing now it is owned by UFC? P.s. I no longer subscribe to WWE network.wss just curiousQuote: AZDuffmanThe WWE has been sold, merging with UFC. Vince McMahon joins the club of best businessmen ever turning a $1 million outfit in 1983 to about $9 billion today. It appears they will be sister corporations under a parent, Endeavor. WWE at least partially found itself it the situation of many family companies, not being able to pass from generation 2 to the third.
I do hope that the new owners treat the film library with the respect it deserves. Whatever else you can say about Vince, the guy understood the 1980s was a golden age for the "sport" and kept the history around.
link to original post
Quote: avianrandyI used to be a monthly subscriber to see network. A nice perk was being able to watch the pay per views in essence for free for being a monthly subscriber. I wonder if subscriber will be able to do the same thing now it is owned by UFC? P.s. I no longer subscribe to WWE network.wss just curiousQuote: AZDuffmanThe WWE has been sold, merging with UFC. Vince McMahon joins the club of best businessmen ever turning a $1 million outfit in 1983 to about $9 billion today. It appears they will be sister corporations under a parent, Endeavor. WWE at least partially found itself it the situation of many family companies, not being able to pass from generation 2 to the third.
I do hope that the new owners treat the film library with the respect it deserves. Whatever else you can say about Vince, the guy understood the 1980s was a golden age for the "sport" and kept the history around.
link to original post
link to original post
All the WWE PPVs are on Peacock, as is their back library.
Quote: odiousgambitmy BetMGM account... I used to get constant offers for what they incorrectly called 'no risk' bets [they were second-chance bets with risk]. Still, these were mightily +EV and I miss them: they are gone now.
update: these may be coming back. I just got the identical offer, for any NBA bet, but now they are calling it "bet insurance" and in description they indicate it's a second chance, but it is for the full amount you bet
no return of original bet on the second chance
'up to $25' ... that may be a dealbreaker for some, but for me, a piker, that's no problem
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between my 5 different books that I use I think I had over 1000 such bets last year. To maximize EV underdogs are the play. A few times I looked for my free bets and couldn’t find them…. forgetting I had won the initial bet….Quote: odiousgambitQuote: odiousgambitmy BetMGM account... I used to get constant offers for what they incorrectly called 'no risk' bets [they were second-chance bets with risk]. Still, these were mightily +EV and I miss them: they are gone now.
update: these may be coming back. I just got the identical offer, for any NBA bet, but now they are calling it "bet insurance" and in description they indicate it's a second chance, but it is for the full amount you bet
no return of original bet on the second chance
'up to $25' ... that may be a dealbreaker for some, but for me, a piker, that's no problem
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yesterday I watched the latest episode of "Raw" - or maybe it was "Next" - the WWE show
I watched Brock Lesnar - a scary looking monster - destroy Cody Rhodes
it was so violent - it looked so real
actually it was too much for me - I started to feel nauseous
obviously humans love violence - that is why this stuff is so popular
I struggle with it - why am I watching this stuff__? - why do I enjoy violence__?
it's definitely ingrained in us - prolly so we can protect and defend ourselves if necessary
an evolutionary thing
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Quote: SOOPOOA few times I looked for my free bets and couldn’t find them…. forgetting I had won the initial bet….
Don't you hate when that happens. LOL
I like the under 6.5 and am rooting for the Bobcats at +158.
Quote: DRichBobcats vs Gophers for the championship.
I like the under 6.5 and am rooting for the Bobcats at +158.
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That was a pretty good game with the Bobcats winning 3-2 with a goal 12 seconds into overtime.
Interestingly, your Golden Knights, despite having best record in the West, are only 6th or 7th to win it. You can get +1300 on DraftKings. I may make a bet (I’m sure -EV) on the Oilers at +1100 on BetRivers. Maybe McDavid plays 30 minutes a game…
Edit. Just went to BR. Now only +900 on Oilers. This is a change from just an hour or two ago!
Quote: SOOPOOHad to make a single bet to win either Stanley Cup or NBA title on Caesars. Made a list of odds on Caesar’s and other 4 books I use. Striking the differences! Caesars has Bruins at +280. That seemed quite a bad bet. I was right! MGM has them +375. I ended up taking the Maple Leafs at +1000.
Interestingly, your Golden Knights, despite having best record in the West, are only 6th or 7th to win it. You can get +1300 on DraftKings. I may make a bet (I’m sure -EV) on the Oilers at +1100 on BetRivers. Maybe McDavid plays 30 minutes a game…
Edit. Just went to BR. Now only +900 on Oilers. This is a change from just an hour or two ago!
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The Golden Knights Goaltender position has been in such flux that although they could surprise people I expect them to fizzle out.
I got LUCKY yesterday. Biggest bet was Lakers ML, James over 24.5, Davis over 9.5 RB. Lakers were dead most of the game, I think down as much as 24? I also had one Lakers bet giving 4.5 points. They were going to win by 3 until Anthony Davis with 0.1 seconds remaining fouled a 3 point shooter who was heaving a shot off balance from behind the backboard. Ranks high on stupidest plays of all time! Butttttt…. It allowed Lakers to win by 6 in OT!
Caesars has now started offering a free $10 bet for making $500 in bets for a week. Golly. If they still have the other profit boost offers for the week I’ll probably get there, but certainly not worth chasing….
Go Yanks/Sabres/76ers parlay on MGM…
Quote: gamerfreakWTF was that first inning of the Yankees game
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I had ‘yes run first inning’. Over 8.5. Now all I need to hit my parlay is for the Yankees to come back from 11 run 3rd inning deficit….
Good beats…. BAD BEATS. I had Man U winning as third leg of a parlay. They were up 2-0 with 10 minutes to go. Dominated all game. They put TWO goals in their own net in the waning minutes…. It’s only money….
Quote: SOOPOODK has the ‘early win’ promo today. So I am throwing away $10 on the Hawks money line over the Celtics. My -EV bets today focus on Harden over assists and Embiid over points.
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I’m tossing away the same $10 on the same bet today! Too bad for me they didn’t offer it yesterday as Nets would have cashed versus 76ers.
Today’s +EV offer on BetMGM is Rangers ML /Knicks +4.5 at +450. Rangers are tiny underdogs, and fair line on Knicks is +5.5.
Yesterday was a RIDICULOUS 3/3 on ‘first goal’ in NHL.
Aho, Pasternak, and Draisaitl. Each were +EV for one reason or another, but it’s nice to actually collect on all 3.
Also….. Suns with Chris Paul play tonight against Clippers with Scott Foster reffing game. Apparently in games reffed by Scott Foster Chris Paul’s teams are WINLESS in the last FIFTEEN such games! Suns are BIG favorites tonight. Let’s see what happens….
I didn’t see game until 2nd quarter when Celts were running away with it. Did not know Hawks were up 19-9 eatly!
FD today has LBJ and Jokic to both score 20 and Assist 6. It’s +250. I think fair odds is +170 - +200.
I had two -EV fun bets that I sometimes make for an afternoon game to keep my interest. Had Dodgers -1.5. They lost 13-0. Had Arsenal shutting out Southampton. Southampton scored in first minute.
It’s insane how many favorites have won by a single run.
I’m sticking with ML only for favorites unless the odds are way too far negative.
Quote: gamerfreak-1.5 Runlines have been an absolute trap the last few weeks.
It’s insane how many favorites have won by a single run.
I’m sticking with ML only for favorites unless the odds are way too far negative.
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Or an absolute opportunity! I love taking +1.5 on road teams. If game is in 9th inning or extras the home team just scores enough to win the game by one run with the sole exception of a walk off home run.
Same concept. If I’m laying 1.5 I want the road team also, as the road team will keep scoring in the 9th or extras no matter how many they are up.
Lucky win last night….. Edwards over 29.5/Twolves ML parlay hits due to Edwards making 30 in OT. Twolves were up 12 with 2 minutes to play but collapsed. But still won in OT.
Sports Betting Superstar -
story re Rufus Peabody (his name sounds like a cartoon character) who developed software for sports betting -
want to make clear - his company sells picks - I'm not recommending them - I would never do that - but several different articles reveal that this guy is a major league bettor himself and the story I linked is about his betting - not about his picks for sale
the link tells how he bet the last Super Bowl - his thing is props - he had 130 different bets on just that one game - he and his team had more than $2 million worth of action on the game
from the article:
"Most of what Rufus and his team want to bet are unders, meaning players will get fewer yards, or points or tackles than the totals set by the bookmakers.
The public, however hates unders. We don't want to bet that something won't happen. We want to bet that something will happen. We like to bet overs.
Which means that by game day, and really the closer to the game the better, the bookmakers will move the lines ever so slightly up, to try to attract some action on the unders.
For people who want to bet overs, Rufus says bet early. If you want to bet unders wait as long as you can.
'I basically want nothing to happen,' Rufus says."
https://www.theringer.com/2022/9/28/23375387/gamblers-super-bowl-episode-3-rufus-peabody
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