Sports betting chatter

Here's more information regarding this guy.

This sentence brings me pause."I build out this model originally awhile back but recently tweaked it with sentiment analysis to squeeze a few extra confidence points on my picks."

Anytime anyone says they tweaked something that leads me to believe it needed tweaking because it eventually failed. This is what system players and touts do in an attempt to get a clean slate after things go bad.
Eventually, with enough clean slates, there's a good chance at a lucky winning streak.

I wonder why it needed tweaking and what's been changed that makes it better.
Again, personally, it's not a big deal to me because I need rollover action anyways, so either I make random bets, spend time attempting to find value or take a chance on a possible +EV model.

I was confident the XFL unders were too low at 37.5, as predicted, the bookmakers have since moved most games higher by as much as 5 points.
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What is The Forecast Card?
I'm just a guy that likes to build models and bet on sports. I build out this model originally awhile back but recently tweaked it with sentiment analysis to squeeze a few extra confidence points on my picks. My picks are all free and available on a public google sheets here: https://www.bit.ly/ForecastCard

What kind of sports betting tips do you offer?
Right now I make my picks for college NCAAB, NBA and NHL. I'll likely start picks on the MLB and NFL in the future.

How do you choose the tips you offer?
My model looks at statistics and sentiment analysis to give me a confidence % of which team will win/beat the spread. I typically take that number and do my own analysis on each pick to make sure there aren't any outliers my model did not pick up. You can tell by the star rating what my model considered a high % vs low % pick.

How much does it cost? Is there a VIP?
Free. and no, I don't offer any VIP service. It's not completely out of the question, but I currently have no plans to sell my picks. If you've like to (but by no means expected or required to), you may tip from through PayPal or buymeacoffee.com - check out 💶send-a-tip


All tips are greatly appreciated - but if you aren't in a financial position to do so, please keep your hard earned money.

Do you offer a guarantee on your tips?
There are no guarantees in sports betting, but I can promise you I select the picks that I'm most confident will win. (edited)
[10:36 PM]
ㅤㅤㅤㅤ
What is Sentiment Analysis?
Sentiment analysis is a technique used to extract and analyze emotions, opinions, and attitudes from various sources of text data, such as social media posts, news articles, and customer reviews. It uses natural language processing and machine learning algorithms to identify and quantify the sentiment of the text as positive, negative, or neutral.

In sports betting, sentiment analysis can help improve odds by providing insights into the opinions and emotions of bettors and fans towards a particular team, player, or event. By analyzing large volumes of text data from social media, online forums, and news sources, sentiment analysis can identify patterns in sentiment and help predict the outcome of a sporting event.

For example, if sentiment analysis shows that a particular team is receiving overwhelmingly positive sentiment from fans and bettors, it may indicate that the team has a higher probability of winning, and therefore could be a good betting opportunity. Similarly, if sentiment analysis shows negative sentiment towards a team or player, it may suggest that the team is facing internal issues or injury concerns, which could impact their performance on the field and potentially provide an opportunity for profitable bets against that team.

Overall, sentiment analysis can provide valuable insights into the emotional and psychological factors that influence sports betting, and help bettors make more informed decisions based on data-driven analysis of sentiment trends. However, it is important to note that sentiment analysis is not a foolproof method and should be used in conjunction with other analytical and research tools to increase the chances of successful betting. (edited)

TheForecastCard — 02/17/2023 10:38 PM
What is a Sports Model?
In sports betting, a sports model refers to a predictive model that uses statistical and machine learning techniques to analyze data and make predictions about the outcomes of sporting events. Sports models take into account a variety of factors, such as team and player performance, weather conditions, injury reports, and historical data, to generate probabilities of different outcomes.

Sports models are typically built using large datasets of historical sporting events, and use various statistical and machine learning techniques to identify patterns and trends in the data. Once the model is built, it can be used to generate predictions for future events, allowing bettors to make informed decisions about their wagers. (edited)

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the guy posted that he was 25-7-1 before I started tracking and gamerfreak verified that he was betting his picks and that his record is legit
not counting the push that's 78% winners
that's phenomenal - I've never seen something like that before - I think it got people including me really interested
it's unrealistic that anybody can keep that up for any great length of time
60% or greater is tremendous - very few can equal that
if he gets us close to 60% anybody betting his picks should be grateful

Axel seems to dislike tweaking - I don't have any problem with that - just wanna see if the guy continues to win

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Quote: lilredrooster

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the guy posted that he was 25-7-1 before I started tracking and gamerfreak verified that he was betting his picks and that his record is legit
not counting the push that's 78% winners
that's phenomenal - I've never seen something like that before - I think it got people including me really interested
it's unrealistic that anybody can keep that up for any great length of time
60% or greater is tremendous - very few can equal that
if he gets us close to 60% anybody betting his picks should be grateful

Axel seems to dislike tweaking - I don't have any problem with that - just wanna see if the guy continues to win

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link to original post

I dislike not knowing what was tweaked or why it had to be tweaked. Anyone can say I tweaked it, it's now better.


What was his record going ALL THE WAY BACK when he first started using whatever model he developed? What if he had 78% losers at one time and now he just happens to have a 78% winning streak? Wouldnt that be just important to you? If he has 500+ picks running way above average then there's something to it.


I'm not saying that his model is good or bad, I have no clue, only the long term will decide that. I just want all the facts I can get. Are there any indications of how much money the guy bets on the games himself?

I wonder, what if there was a way to get a 70%+ win rate? I have to imagine they would take down any games he suggested. I have to imagine the picks wouldn't be free anymore. I have to imagine someone would offer him a crap ton of money for his picks and remain silent. Why he would not just start betting huge amounts himself, I dont know.

Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: lilredrooster

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the guy posted that he was 25-7-1 before I started tracking and gamerfreak verified that he was betting his picks and that his record is legit
not counting the push that's 78% winners
that's phenomenal - I've never seen something like that before - I think it got people including me really interested
it's unrealistic that anybody can keep that up for any great length of time
60% or greater is tremendous - very few can equal that
if he gets us close to 60% anybody betting his picks should be grateful

Axel seems to dislike tweaking - I don't have any problem with that - just wanna see if the guy continues to win

.
link to original post

I dislike not knowing what was tweaked or why it had to be tweaked. Anyone can say I tweaked it, it's now better.


What was his record going ALL THE WAY BACK when he first started using whatever model he developed? What if he had 78% losers at one time and now he just happens to have a 78% winning streak? Wouldnt that be just important to you? If he has 500+ picks running way above average then there's something to it.


I'm not saying that his model is good or bad, I have no clue, only the long term will decide that. I just want all the facts I can get. Are there any indications of how much money the guy bets on the games himself?

I wonder, what if there was a way to get a 70%+ win rate? I have to imagine they would take down any games he suggested. I have to imagine the picks wouldn't be free anymore. I have to imagine someone would offer him a crap ton of money for his picks and remain silent. Why he would not just start betting huge amounts himself, I dont know.
link to original post

Ed Thorpe had to tweak his methods several times before getting it right, and I don't believe he ever bet huge money on the game.
That doesn't invalidate his work.
If I could find someone with a documented 65% win record over an extended time period., I wouldn't care about his past failures.
I'm curious what his MLB record will be in July.

Quote: AxelWolf

I dislike not knowing what was tweaked or why it had to be tweaked. Anyone can say I tweaked it, it's now better.

What was his record going ALL THE WAY BACK when he first started using whatever model he developed? What if he had 78% losers at one time and now he just happens to have a 78% winning streak? Wouldnt that be just important to you? If he has 500+ picks running way above average then there's something to it.

I'm not saying that his model is good or bad, I have no clue, only the long term will decide that. I just want all the facts I can get. Are there any indications of how much money the guy bets on the games himself?
I wonder, what if there was a way to get a 70%+ win rate? I have to imagine they would take down any games he suggested. I have to imagine the picks wouldn't be free anymore. I have to imagine someone would offer him a crap ton of money for his picks and remain silent. Why he would not just start betting huge amounts himself, I dont know.

you're making a very big deal over his use of the word "tweaked"
I'm not clear on what he meant and I don't think you are either
and I don't think it's a very big deal as you obviously do
you're assuming he was doing badly and then made some change that he calls tweaked and that invalidates his recent record
I'm not at all sure that's true
he could just mean that he chose to give less value to the computer prediction and more to his own speculation

it sounds like you want some kind of guarantee

that's just not going to happen

it's not going to be like when you exactly know the machine odds and then you have a promo so you know for sure you have an edge



I don't believe anybody has ever gotten 70% over the long run - not that I'm aware of

if you're not pleased with close to 60% which is a 14.5% r.o.i. - then I don't think you're going to enjoy betting sports


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Quote: billryan

Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: lilredrooster

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the guy posted that he was 25-7-1 before I started tracking and gamerfreak verified that he was betting his picks and that his record is legit
not counting the push that's 78% winners
that's phenomenal - I've never seen something like that before - I think it got people including me really interested
it's unrealistic that anybody can keep that up for any great length of time
60% or greater is tremendous - very few can equal that
if he gets us close to 60% anybody betting his picks should be grateful

Axel seems to dislike tweaking - I don't have any problem with that - just wanna see if the guy continues to win

.
link to original post

I dislike not knowing what was tweaked or why it had to be tweaked. Anyone can say I tweaked it, it's now better.


What was his record going ALL THE WAY BACK when he first started using whatever model he developed? What if he had 78% losers at one time and now he just happens to have a 78% winning streak? Wouldnt that be just important to you? If he has 500+ picks running way above average then there's something to it.


I'm not saying that his model is good or bad, I have no clue, only the long term will decide that. I just want all the facts I can get. Are there any indications of how much money the guy bets on the games himself?

I wonder, what if there was a way to get a 70%+ win rate? I have to imagine they would take down any games he suggested. I have to imagine the picks wouldn't be free anymore. I have to imagine someone would offer him a crap ton of money for his picks and remain silent. Why he would not just start betting huge amounts himself, I dont know.
link to original post

Ed Thorpe had to tweak his methods several times before getting it right, and I don't believe he ever bet huge money on the game.
That doesn't invalidate his work.
If I could find someone with a documented 65% win record over an extended time period., I wouldn't care about his past failures.
I'm curious what his MLB record will be in July.
link to original post

The situation is Apples and oranges. A bad comparison.

You're talking about something based on pure math vs something that isn't. BJ CC tweaking can be articulated and proven that it's warranted and accurate. Your talking about a small edge with tons of variance vs a huge edge. You're talking about a dangerous life-threatening situation a guy wasn't cut out for. Something you had to be in the casino while keeping a low profile VS something you can do from just about anywhere in the world at home while clicking some buttons on a computer.

Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: AxelWolf

I dislike not knowing what was tweaked or why it had to be tweaked. Anyone can say I tweaked it, it's now better.

What was his record going ALL THE WAY BACK when he first started using whatever model he developed? What if he had 78% losers at one time and now he just happens to have a 78% winning streak? Wouldnt that be just important to you? If he has 500+ picks running way above average then there's something to it.

I'm not saying that his model is good or bad, I have no clue, only the long term will decide that. I just want all the facts I can get. Are there any indications of how much money the guy bets on the games himself?
I wonder, what if there was a way to get a 70%+ win rate? I have to imagine they would take down any games he suggested. I have to imagine the picks wouldn't be free anymore. I have to imagine someone would offer him a crap ton of money for his picks and remain silent. Why he would not just start betting huge amounts himself, I dont know.

you're making a very big deal over his use of the word "tweaked"
I'm not clear on what he meant and I don't think you are either
and I don't think it's a very big deal as you obviously do
you're assuming he was doing badly and then made some change that he calls tweaked and that invalidates his recent record
I'm not at all sure that's true
he could just mean that he chose to give less value to the computer prediction and more to his own speculation

it sounds like you want some kind of guarantee

that's just not going to happen

it's not going to be like when you exactly know the machine odds and then you have a promo so you know for sure you have an edge



I don't believe anybody has ever gotten 70% over the long run - not that I'm aware of

if you're not pleased with close to 60% which is a 14.5% r.o.i. - then I don't think you're going to enjoy betting sports


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link to original post

I wouldn't ever assume it's even possible to get 70% over the long term. I doubt even 60% is obtainable.

I would be jumping for joy with a proven 60%. Even a proven daily 5%-10% edge would be absolutely fantastic. I wouldn't do anything else.

Tweaked by adding more of his own speculation is something I don't want to hear, that's never good in situations like this. Tweaking the algorithm to weed something out or find something would be more to my liking.

Quote: AxelWolf

I would be jumping for joy with a proven 60%. Even a proven daily 5%-10% edge would be absolutely fantastic

oh, okay

and how would somebody prove that

if he did 60% ats for 150 picks would that prove it______?

and would that mean that for sure he would get 60% ats for the next 150 picks__________?

no way it would mean that for sure

even if he got 60% over a thousand picks that still wouldn't prove it

he could have something extremely stressful happen in his life which would effect his judgment and he could no longer be able to perform at a high level

.

Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: AxelWolf

I would be jumping for joy with a proven 60%. Even a proven daily 5%-10% edge would be absolutely fantastic

oh, okay

and how would somebody prove that
if he did 60% ats for 150 picks would that PROVE it______?

and would that mean that for sure he would get 60% ats for the next 150 picks__________?

no way it would mean that for sure

even if he got 60% over a thousand picks that still wouldn't prove it

he could have something extremely stressful in his life which would effect his judgment and he could no longer be able to perform at a high level

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link to original post

If he is above 60% from now until July 1st, his picks will have my financial support

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and one other thing Axel

you seem to be assuming that a computer can outperform any human basing his picks on speculation

I'm not at all sure that's true

if that was true wouldn't there now be documentation of touts using computers guaranteeing a profit_____?

where are they______?___________I've never heard of such a thing

.

Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: AxelWolf

I would be jumping for joy with a proven 60%. Even a proven daily 5%-10% edge would be absolutely fantastic

oh, okay

and how would somebody prove that

if he did 60% ats for 150 picks would that prove it______?

and would that mean that for sure he would get 60% ats for the next 150 picks__________?

no way it would mean that for sure

even if he got 60% over a thousand picks that still wouldn't prove it

he could have something extremely stressful happen in his life which would effect his judgment and he could no longer be able to perform at a high level

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link to original post

If he were Getting 60% correct on a1000 picks that would be enough for me to believe with 99.999999746% confidence his model is working.

If he were Getting 60% correct on a150 picks id to be 99.2 % confident his model is working.

I'm skeptical of any tout using any nonmathematical or proven formula, computer generated or not. I'm much more likely to believe it's possible for a computer-generated algorithm to come up with winning picks.
"he could have something extremely stressful happen in his life which would effect his judgment and he could no longer be able to perform at a high level"

Exactly, assuming someone had the ability to handicap at a winning % It wouldn't even have to be something extremely stressful, it could be something as simple as he started betting on his own picks.

Can anyone show me proof of anyone who's beaten sports long-term with pure handicapping? No line shopping, off-market lines, arbing, middling, bonuses, line manipulation, or mathematical +EV situations. Just someone picking agist the spread.

Quote: billryan

Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: AxelWolf

I would be jumping for joy with a proven 60%. Even a proven daily 5%-10% edge would be absolutely fantastic

oh, okay

and how would somebody prove that
if he did 60% ats for 150 picks would that PROVE it______?

and would that mean that for sure he would get 60% ats for the next 150 picks__________?

no way it would mean that for sure

even if he got 60% over a thousand picks that still wouldn't prove it

he could have something extremely stressful in his life which would effect his judgment and he could no longer be able to perform at a high level

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link to original post

If he is above 60% from now until July 1st, his picks will have my financial support
link to original post

How so? Can you elaborate? Does this mean you'll bet his picks or "buy him a coffee"

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sports is beatable
if you figured out machines you could figure out sports - it might take some time
you don't need to rely on anybody's picks
you could beat sports with your own picks

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Quote: lilredrooster

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sports is beatable
if you figured out machines you could figure out sports - it might take some time
you don't need to rely on anybody's picks
you could beat sports with your own picks

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link to original post

I'm well aware you can beat sports, where did you get the impression I wasn't aware of that? I'm well ahead liftime on sports betting, I have been doing it since the 90's. I make +EV bets all the time. Those bets normally have a clear mathematical or logical reason why they are +EV. I know people who make their living betting sports.

Obviously, my recent dive into betting XFL overs was speculation on part. I do believe I was correct considering what the bookmakers are now setting the lines at.

I'm talking about pure Handicapping sport's. Still waiting for someone to prove one can/has beat major sports long term with ONLY Handicapping. Again, I'm not talking about known +EV situations see my post above.

Quote: lilredrooster

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sports is beatable
if you figured out machines you could figure out sports - it might take some time
you don't need to rely on anybody's picks
you could beat sports with your own picks

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link to original post

I have known big gamblers and ran bets to the track back in the days. Every guy who bet big enough to consider rich and was ahead lifetime had one thing in common. He was a bookie at the time or had been arrested if not convicted for bookmaking. This gave them access to a nickel line. Common practice, get a phone call from another bookie trying to balance his book, offered 105 instead of 110. If you like the team take it. If not just say not thanks,
of course inside information sure helps a lot. Henry G was biggest book in Florida, Heard of Al Snyder jockey on Citation , Died in mysterious boating accident in 1948, He would bet $20 on some horses for Calumet Farm, but sometimes $200 on FIRST TIME STARTER. Money in the bank,
while I am on this rant, the guy who won millions in Hong Kong with his handicapping program. Lost over 300K till he got access to mutuel pools, I mean real access to even exotics, Could see any inequities and bet to the last second. Won a big exotic play over a million I think. Never claimed it because might raise red flags on his access. once word got out anyway packed up bags and returned to USA,

Quote: AxelWolf

I'm talking about pure Handicapping sport's. Still waiting for someone to PROVE one can/has beat major sports long term with ONLY Handicapping.

Mike tracked about 2100 NFL games and found the away underdog won 53.75% with an r.o.i. of 2.57% - see link

I tweaked that and tracked the last 4 years of away underdogs in the regular season who got 4 points or less - see link

276 games - a very few pushes not considered - you can verify the results at covers.com if you want

159-117__________57.6% winners__________10% r.o.i.



does that prove anything to you_____?



the books either deliberately set an inaccurate line knowing that the public prefers the home favorite or the public over bet the home fave causing the line to be pushed into inaccuarcy, in this one instance, so that a bet against the home fave overcomes the vig and becomes profitable



some might say that is not handicaping
I say it is
the handicapping consideration is that they were away underdogs who got 4 points or less or the points didn't matter to get less of an r.o.i. as Mike showed
the fact that it was the only consideration does not mean that it is not handicapping


https://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/nfl/

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/36563-beat-the-nfl-spread/


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3-2 since 3/17

reddit guy potd:

Lakers +2 over Suns - but I don't see a + 2 on vegasinsider - the best I see is +1.5

so I will call it Lakers +1.5 over Suns - if it lands on 2 - unlikely but possible - I will call it no action

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Quote: lilredrooster

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3-2 since 3/17

reddit guy potd:

Lakers +2 over Suns - but I don't see a + 2 on vegasinsider - the best I see is +1.5

so I will call it Lakers +1.5 over Suns - if it lands on 2 - unlikely but possible - I will call it no action

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link to original post

I’ll post my pick as well. I’ll take Suns at +7. Oh, you don’t see that line?

Point being if I don’t have access to the same pointspread at the same odds following his win/loss results are meaningless to me. Unless there are just as many examples where I get an extra 1/2 point as opposed to this example where I am giving the 1/2 point.

It is probably true that at the time he did his calculations he could get +2, so I don’t think he is being nefarious.

Anyone have a guess as to how much he makes in donations? No way for anyone to know other than a guess, right?

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: lilredrooster

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3-2 since 3/17

reddit guy potd:

Lakers +2 over Suns - but I don't see a + 2 on vegasinsider - the best I see is +1.5

so I will call it Lakers +1.5 over Suns - if it lands on 2 - unlikely but possible - I will call it no action

.

I’ll post my pick as well. I’ll take Suns at +7. Oh, you don’t see that line?

Point being if I don’t have access to the same pointspread at the same odds following his win/loss results are meaningless to me. Unless there are just as many examples where I get an extra 1/2 point as opposed to this example where I am giving the 1/2 point.

It is probably true that at the time he did his calculations he could get +2, so I don’t think he is being nefarious.

Anybody have a guess how much he makes in donations?

every other time since I've been tracking he has said "up to" and the line has been available - or like yesterday he didn't say "up to" but what he quoted was widely available
maybe this time he forgot - I don't think it's a big deal
also, I think he is probably picking the line as soon as it is available maybe even the night before
if it is a wise pick the line is likely to move against us by the time I look at it
if this happens several times I will agree with you that his picks are being invalidated and I will stop tracking
or better yet - I will track it and call it my pick - fair enough since it's a different line
and I will post 2 sets of results - my pick if necessary - and his pick when the line he quotes is available
you and Axel taking shots at the guy - seems strange - you got the picks for free - you're not required to donate - you think his picks suck - simple answer - don't bet them
your sarcasm about taking the Suns +7 borders on the ridiculous

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Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: AxelWolf

I'm talking about pure Handicapping sport's. Still waiting for someone to PROVE one can/has beat major sports long term with ONLY Handicapping.

Mike tracked about 2100 NFL games and found the away underdog won 53.75% with an r.o.i. of 2.57% - see link

I tweaked that and tracked the last 4 years of away underdogs in the regular season who got 4 points or less - see link

276 games - a very few pushes not considered - you can verify the results at covers.com if you want

159-117__________57.6% winners__________10% r.o.i.



does that prove anything to you_____?



the books either deliberately set an inaccurate line knowing that the public prefers the home favorite or the public over bet the home fave causing the line to be pushed into inaccuarcy, in this one instance, so that a bet against the home fave overcomes the vig and becomes profitable



some might say that is not handicaping
I say it is
the handicapping consideration is that they were away underdogs who got 4 points or less or the points didn't matter to get less of an r.o.i. as Mike showed
the fact that it was the only consideration does not mean that it is not handicapping


https://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/nfl/

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/36563-beat-the-nfl-spread/


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link to original post

That stuff isn't handicapping my book, I thought i made that clear in my previous posts. Is this guy using those methods in his picks?

Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: lilredrooster

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3-2 since 3/17

reddit guy potd:

Lakers +2 over Suns - but I don't see a + 2 on vegasinsider - the best I see is +1.5

so I will call it Lakers +1.5 over Suns - if it lands on 2 - unlikely but possible - I will call it no action

.

I’ll post my pick as well. I’ll take Suns at +7. Oh, you don’t see that line?

Point being if I don’t have access to the same pointspread at the same odds following his win/loss results are meaningless to me. Unless there are just as many examples where I get an extra 1/2 point as opposed to this example where I am giving the 1/2 point.

It is probably true that at the time he did his calculations he could get +2, so I don’t think he is being nefarious.

Anybody have a guess how much he makes in donations?

every other time since I've been tracking he has said "up to" and the line has been available - or like yesterday he didn't say "up to" but what he quoted was widely available
maybe this time he forgot - I don't think it's a big deal
also, I think he is probably picking the line as soon as it is available maybe even the night before
if it is a wise pick the line is likely to move against us by the time I look at it
if this happens several times I will agree with you that his picks are being invalidated and I will stop tracking
or better yet - I will track it and call it my pick - fair enough since it's a different line
and I will post 2 sets of results - my pick if necessary - and his pick when the line he quotes is available
you and Axel taking shots at the guy - seems strange - you got the picks for free - you're not required to donate - you think his picks suck - simple answer - don't bet them
your sarcasm about taking the Suns +7 borders on the ridiculous

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link to original post

Can you quote where I took shots at the guy? Be specific please and explain how I was talking shots at the guy. I’m rooting for the guy. I was even using his picks. I liked the fact that he's using some algorithm scraping data. That doesn't mean I shouldn't ask questions and have some concerns.

Quote: AxelWolf

That stuff isn't handicapping my book, I thought i made that clear in my previous posts. Is this guy using those methods in his picks?

why isn't it handicapping? - it uses 3 handicapping factors - who is home and who is away - and who is the fave and who is the dog - and how many points
never mind
I'm done. No longer willing to discuss "your book"
you go your way and I'll go mine.
frankly, I find your idea that it needs to be proven that handicappers can win long term and have an edge long term ridiculous

.

Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: AxelWolf

That stuff isn't handicapping my book, I thought i made that clear in my previous posts. Is this guy using those methods in his picks?

why isn't it handicapping? - it uses 3 handicapping factors - who is home and who is away - and who is the fave and who is the dog - and how many points
never mind
I'm done. No longer willing to discuss "your book"
you go your way and I'll go mine.
frankly, I find your idea that it needs to be proven that handicappers can win long term and have an edge long term ridiculous

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link to original post

I’ll chime in. I think you need around a 53% success rate on even bets (-110 at most books) to come out even.
If he can do 55% I’ll be betting with him every day. I had to make some NBA bets today so I took the Lakers + 1.5 today. I absolutely believe it is possible for someone to be able to achieve over 53% consistently. But I’d bet it is quite rare. You mistake my cautious attitude to one of scorn.

One thing about my skepticism……. The teams after all the trades at the trading deadline in the NBA are (sometimes) not even remotely similar to themselves from before the trades. I’d say there is close to NO season long data that is useful for evaluating the Nets, as an example. I’m sure they would say they ‘account’ for such things. Good luck with that.

Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: AxelWolf

That stuff isn't handicapping my book, I thought i made that clear in my previous posts. Is this guy using those methods in his picks?

why isn't it handicapping? - it uses 2 handicapping factors - who is home and who is away - and who is the fave and who is the dog
never mind
I'm done. No longer willing to discuss "your book"
you go your way and I'll go mine.
frankly, I find your idea that it needs to be proven that handicappers can win long term and have an edge long term ridiculous

.
link to original post

Hey, please don't take your ball and go home. (-;

We are having a legit discussion that I believe is beneficial.

If one were just basing their picks on the following...that's what handicapping is. I see nothing there that follows any proven +EV sports betting methods such as you or I pointed out. He may have an advantage, I don't know.






I dont think we can/should chalk it up to semantics.
I believe, there needs to be a clear separation between proven mathematical/logical /statistical +EV sports betting and non-proven supposed winning sports betting (Handicapping picks). For the same reason, there needs to be a clear separation between Betting Systems and legit AP methods.

There are thousands of knowledgeable sports guys out there making picks and giving their reasons for those picks using non-proven methods (handicapping). Many of those guys are basically just guessing, a few of those guys are going to run super well. Should we believe that they have an advantage just because they run well and their reasons sound good? How can the average person tell when something is just luck vs legit skill? Look at the list in the spoiler can you explain to me why any or all of those things equate to +EV?

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: AxelWolf

That stuff isn't handicapping my book, I thought i made that clear in my previous posts. Is this guy using those methods in his picks?

why isn't it handicapping? - it uses 3 handicapping factors - who is home and who is away - and who is the fave and who is the dog - and how many points
never mind
I'm done. No longer willing to discuss "your book"
you go your way and I'll go mine.
frankly, I find your idea that it needs to be proven that handicappers can win long term and have an edge long term ridiculous

.
link to original post

I’ll chime in. I think you need around a 53% success rate on even bets (-110 at most books) to come out even.
If he can do 55% I’ll be betting with him every day. I had to make some NBA bets today so I took the Lakers + 1.5 today. I absolutely believe it is possible for someone to be able to achieve over 53% consistently. But I’d bet it is quite rare. You mistake my cautious attitude to one of scorn.

One thing about my skepticism……. The teams after all the trades at the trading deadline in the NBA are (sometimes) not even remotely similar to themselves from before the trades. I’d say there is close to NO season long data that is useful for evaluating the Nets, as an example. I’m sure they would say they ‘account’ for such things. Good luck with that.
link to original post

How long (over how many games?) would YOU need him to hold 55% + for before you started to bet religiously for any serious money?

Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: lilredrooster

.

3-2 since 3/17

reddit guy potd:

Lakers +2 over Suns - but I don't see a + 2 on vegasinsider - the best I see is +1.5

so I will call it Lakers +1.5 over Suns - if it lands on 2 - unlikely but possible - I will call it no action

.

I’ll post my pick as well. I’ll take Suns at +7. Oh, you don’t see that line?

Point being if I don’t have access to the same pointspread at the same odds following his win/loss results are meaningless to me. Unless there are just as many examples where I get an extra 1/2 point as opposed to this example where I am giving the 1/2 point.

It is probably true that at the time he did his calculations he could get +2, so I don’t think he is being nefarious.

Anybody have a guess how much he makes in donations?

every other time since I've been tracking he has said "up to" and the line has been available - or like yesterday he didn't say "up to" but what he quoted was widely available
maybe this time he forgot - I don't think it's a big deal
also, I think he is probably picking the line as soon as it is available maybe even the night before
if it is a wise pick the line is likely to move against us by the time I look at it
if this happens several times I will agree with you that his picks are being invalidated and I will stop tracking
or better yet - I will track it and call it my pick - fair enough since it's a different line
and I will post 2 sets of results - my pick if necessary - and his pick when the line he quotes is available
you and Axel taking shots at the guy - seems strange - you got the picks for free - you're not required to donate - you think his picks suck - simple answer - don't bet them
your sarcasm about taking the Suns +7 borders on the ridiculous

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link to original post

He has today’s Nuggets listed at -3.5 and I am seeing -8.5

Spreads can change quite a bit throughout the day.

I got Lakers at +1 @ -110 this morning, and now they are at -1 @ -105

Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: AxelWolf

That stuff isn't handicapping my book, I thought i made that clear in my previous posts. Is this guy using those methods in his picks?

why isn't it handicapping? - it uses 3 handicapping factors - who is home and who is away - and who is the fave and who is the dog - and how many points
never mind
I'm done. No longer willing to discuss "your book"
you go your way and I'll go mine.
frankly, I find your idea that it needs to be proven that handicappers can win long term and have an edge long term ridiculous

.
link to original post

I’ll chime in. I think you need around a 53% success rate on even bets (-110 at most books) to come out even.
If he can do 55% I’ll be betting with him every day. I had to make some NBA bets today so I took the Lakers + 1.5 today. I absolutely believe it is possible for someone to be able to achieve over 53% consistently. But I’d bet it is quite rare. You mistake my cautious attitude to one of scorn.

One thing about my skepticism……. The teams after all the trades at the trading deadline in the NBA are (sometimes) not even remotely similar to themselves from before the trades. I’d say there is close to NO season long data that is useful for evaluating the Nets, as an example. I’m sure they would say they ‘account’ for such things. Good luck with that.
link to original post

How long (over how many games?) would YOU need him to hold 55% + for before you started to bet religiously for any serious money?
link to original post

if he’s hitting ‘just’ 55% I’d probably need to see 500 or so to be convinced. And I really wouldn’t be convinced! But I’d keep betting with him for an undetermined period of time. Heck, I’m going to be betting with him after seeing him go 3 for 5!

You can be the world's best handicapper, but it won't help when your team defends the wrong basket.
After a timeout, The Mavs somehow went to the far end of the court and set up their defense. Only the ball was thrown in on the near end and the Warriors had an unopposed basket.
I once saw a confused player emerge from a scrum and do a layup on his own basket, but how do FIVE players and a coaching staff set up on the wrong end of a court?

Quote: gamerfreak

Spreads can change quite a bit throughout the day.

I got Lakers at +1 @ -110 this morning, and now they are at -1 @ -105
link to original post

I couldn't find it at +2 so I avoided betting it.

.

NHL star Evander Kane is bankrupt from gambling with debt over $26 million -

despite having career earnings of about $76 million

I wonder who loaned him all of that money - did he lie about what he was going to use it for______?


I was able to read the story at the link quickly before the paywall came up


the reddit guy's potds are wise - other wiseguys are going to see and hammer the same thing and the line is going to move against his pick fairly often


https://theathletic.com/4335841/2023/03/22/evander-kane-gambling-chapter-11/


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this link (at the bottom of the page) lists Rob Vinciletti as one of the top 5 money earners in NFL handicapping - the money earned is pretty small so I guess it's based on his public picks in some kind of contest each pick for a set amount

anyway, it gives his % as 53.9%

Mike showed that with about 2,100 games he tracked 53.75% doing nothing other than betting the away underdog

hilarious - to me anyway


https://capperreviews.com/steve-fezzik-the-greatest-nfl-handicapper-of-all-time/


https://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/nfl/


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Quote: lilredrooster

.

NHL star Evander Kane is bankrupt from gambling with debt over $26 million -

despite having career earnings of about $76 million

I wonder who loaned him all of that money - did he lie about what he was going to use it for______?


I was able to read the story at the link quickly before the paywall came up


the reddit guy's potds are wise - other wiseguys are going to see and hammer the same thing and the line is going to move against his pick fairly often


https://theathletic.com/4335841/2023/03/22/evander-kane-gambling-chapter-11/


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link to original post

He has quite the history of playing table games and losing in Las Vegas. If I am not mistaken he had markers out at many casinos and failed to pay them.

Some years ago one of my friends lived next door to some kid who was some kind of NFL sports-picking guru. I think he was a rapper too.

My friend was all excited to tell me about this kid and how good he was. My friend sure I would want to know and start betting big on the kid's picks. My friend thought for sure I would want to meet this kid genius. I had to laugh at the entire idea, but out of curiosity, and concern for my friend getting involved with this type of nonsense, I did some research.

Apparently, the kid was soo good they had him on the local Vegas news making weekly picks or somthing like that. They did a bunch of interviews and whatnot with the kid and his parents. I can't remember everything I discovered and very few details, but it was even worst than I thought.

My friend was all disappointed when I told him that it was all complete bullshit. Of course, my friend said, "The records don't lie, this kid is a winning NFL handicapper"

I can't remember how it all ended up for my friend, or how long this con lasted.

But if someone can get sucked in on some obvious BS like that, I can only imagine how people could get sucked into a situation where someome is on a hot streak who actually seems legit and has a good pitch.

Spreadsheet was fixed to total past results. This is for the last 40 days of picks.




Confidence level doesn’t seem to mean much.

POTD is right around 70%

This is taking on the distinctive character of a religious faith, determined to "see" confirmation.

Quote: gamerfreak

Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: lilredrooster

.

3-2 since 3/17

reddit guy potd:

Lakers +2 over Suns - but I don't see a + 2 on vegasinsider - the best I see is +1.5

so I will call it Lakers +1.5 over Suns - if it lands on 2 - unlikely but possible - I will call it no action

.

I’ll post my pick as well. I’ll take Suns at +7. Oh, you don’t see that line?

Point being if I don’t have access to the same pointspread at the same odds following his win/loss results are meaningless to me. Unless there are just as many examples where I get an extra 1/2 point as opposed to this example where I am giving the 1/2 point.

It is probably true that at the time he did his calculations he could get +2, so I don’t think he is being nefarious.

Anybody have a guess how much he makes in donations?

every other time since I've been tracking he has said "up to" and the line has been available - or like yesterday he didn't say "up to" but what he quoted was widely available
maybe this time he forgot - I don't think it's a big deal
also, I think he is probably picking the line as soon as it is available maybe even the night before
if it is a wise pick the line is likely to move against us by the time I look at it
if this happens several times I will agree with you that his picks are being invalidated and I will stop tracking
or better yet - I will track it and call it my pick - fair enough since it's a different line
and I will post 2 sets of results - my pick if necessary - and his pick when the line he quotes is available
you and Axel taking shots at the guy - seems strange - you got the picks for free - you're not required to donate - you think his picks suck - simple answer - don't bet them
your sarcasm about taking the Suns +7 borders on the ridiculous

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link to original post

He has today’s Nuggets listed at -3.5 and I am seeing -8.5
link to original post

Ahem... sports betting line movement histories are readily available from multiple sources. Have been for years. But this one can't be called a case of either past-posting or stale line scamdicapping (the two most usual suspects in this sort of stuff) since It was never anywhere near -3.5 at all:

Quote: https://www.vegasinsider.com/nba/odds/las-vegas/

Wed Mar 22,4:20 PM ET  WAS8.5  -105 DEN-8.5  -115
Wed Mar 22,4:17 PM ET  WAS8.5  -105 DEN-8.5  -115
Wed Mar 22,4:16 PM ET  WAS8.5  -105 DEN-8.5  -115
Wed Mar 22,4:16 PM ET  WAS8.5  -110 DEN-8.5  -110
Wed Mar 22,2:20 PM ET WAS7.5  -105 DEN-7.5  -115
Wed Mar 22,2:18 PM ET WAS7.5  -110 DEN-7.5  -110
Wed Mar 22,2:17 PM ET WAS7.5  -110 DEN-7.5  -110
Wed Mar 22,12:45 PM ET  WAS6.5  -105 DEN-6.5  -115
Wed Mar 22,12:41 PM ET  WAS7.5  -115DEN-7.5  -105
Wed Mar 22,12:37 PM ET  WAS7.5  -110 DEN-7.5  -110
Wed Mar 22,11:55 AM ET  WAS6.5  -105 DEN-6.5  -115
Wed Mar 22,10:36 AM ET WAS6.5  -105 DEN-6.5  -115
Wed Mar 22,8:49 AM ET WAS6.5  -105 DEN-6.5  -115
Wed Mar 22,8:47 AM ET WAS6.5  -105 DEN-6.5  -115
Wed Mar 22,8:16 AM ET WAS6.5  -105 DEN-6.5  -115
Wed Mar 22,8:15 AM ET WAS6.5  -105 DEN-6.5  -115
Wed Mar 22,8:06 AM ET WAS6.5  -110 DEN-6.5  -110
Wed Mar 22,6:05 AM ET WAS6.5  -110 DEN-6.5  -110
Tue Mar 21,11:48 PM ET  WAS6.5  -110 DEN-6.5  -110

Perhaps it just means a donation to his optometrist would be in order, or there's a thumb that needs a diet program. Cuz if someone was about baking fudge to reel in some chumps, this wouldn't be even trying.

Going back to the days of guys like Lem Banker. Their record was outstanding when they posted up the numbers they supposedly got.

When it came down to it those numbers were never avaliable to anyone else. If you were lucky you might make 4 units per season.

Obviously a guanteeed 3 or 4 units per season on NFL would be awesome assuming you were getting down a substantial amount.

What does a guy do when he has 6 straight losses at 20k per bet (ouch!).

What’s the pick today? I am already up $1 thanks to Gabon beating Sudan in soccer…..

Quote: AxelWolf

Going back to the days of guys like Lem Banker. Their record was outstanding when they posted up the numbers they supposedly got.

When it came down to it those numbers were never avaliable to anyone else. If you were lucky you might make 4 units per season.

Obviously a guanteeed 3 or 4 units per season on NFL would be awesome assuming you were getting down a substantial amount.

What does a guy do when he has 6 straight losses at 20k per bet (ouch!).
link to original post

Something I don’t understand -

There are 63 March madness games, and historically an average of 12 upsets each tournament.

Why not just bet the same amount every game ML on the favorite?

I’m assuming lines set in such a way to make that not profitable?

I suppose if you need a hit rate of 56% for -110 bets, that goes well over 70% when the lines get -300 and lower

Quote: AxelWolf

Going back to the days of guys like Lem Banker. Their record was outstanding when they posted up the numbers they supposedly got.

When it came down to it those numbers were never avaliable to anyone else. If you were lucky you might make 4 units per season.

Obviously a guanteeed 3 or 4 units per season on NFL would be awesome assuming you were getting down a substantial amount.

What does a guy do when he has 6 straight losses at 20k per bet (ouch!).
link to original post

Jeez. If he is a pro, he bets his usual 20K. If not, he calls his friend Marty.

Quote: DRich

Quote: lilredrooster

.

NHL star Evander Kane is bankrupt from gambling with debt over $26 million -

despite having career earnings of about $76 million

I wonder who loaned him all of that money - did he lie about what he was going to use it for______?


I was able to read the story at the link quickly before the paywall came up


the reddit guy's potds are wise - other wiseguys are going to see and hammer the same thing and the line is going to move against his pick fairly often


https://theathletic.com/4335841/2023/03/22/evander-kane-gambling-chapter-11/


.
link to original post

He has quite the history of playing table games and losing in Las Vegas. If I am not mistaken he had markers out at many casinos and failed to pay them.
link to original post

hey, that's an awesome system
when you win go out and buy some flashy jewelry and party with the babes like the champ that you are
limos and jets to exotic locales all over the world - staying in only the most luxurious hotels
and when you lose just keep taking out more and more markers
then when the heat to pay those markers gets to be too much -
just declare bankruptcy and never pay it

this guy had a gigantic edge_____________$26 million he will never have to pay___________________________(-:\


.

Seems like all the sites are giving boosts to bets including Tennessee money line. I’m in, but nervous….

Quote: SOOPOO

What’s the pick today? I am already up $1 thanks to Gabon beating Sudan in soccer…..
link to original post

Sorry it’s too late now, but it was UCONN -4

I can post tomorrow’s pick in the AM

Quote: gamerfreak

Quote: SOOPOO

What’s the pick today? I am already up $1 thanks to Gabon beating Sudan in soccer…..
link to original post

Sorry it’s too late now, but it was UCONN -4

I can post tomorrow’s pick in the AM
link to original post

I do have UConn ML in some parlays. But would have taken them -4 for small $$. Oh well. My superior(NOT!) handicapping ability liked Arkansas +4.5. Which was the spread I saw.

Quote: gamerfreak

Quote: AxelWolf

Going back to the days of guys like Lem Banker. Their record was outstanding when they posted up the numbers they supposedly got.

When it came down to it those numbers were never avaliable to anyone else. If you were lucky you might make 4 units per season.

Obviously a guanteeed 3 or 4 units per season on NFL would be awesome assuming you were getting down a substantial amount.

What does a guy do when he has 6 straight losses at 20k per bet (ouch!).
link to original post

Something I don’t understand -

There are 63 March madness games, and historically an average of 12 upsets each tournament.

Why not just bet the same amount every game ML on the favorite?

I’m assuming lines set in such a way to make that not profitable?

I suppose if you need a hit rate of 56% for -110 bets, that goes well over 70% when the lines get -300 and lower
link to original post

Quote: Fanduel.com USA Sportsbook

Florida Atlantic +188 Tennessee -235
San Diego State +270 Alabama -345
Miami +285 Houston -365
Princeton +390 Creighton -530

So, a "fair odds" line of -530 implies you must have a 'break-even' win probability of 84.127% on a glorious victory for the mighty fighting Billy Bluejays of Creighton U, when risking more than five Benjamins to make one.


And some of the earlier round matchups have a favorite priced at over -1000 against a 'happy to be here' opponent, i.e. Florida Atlantic at -1600 vs. Fairleigh Dickinson, requiring over a 95% win rate to break even after you put down $1,600 to win $100 (they won by eight). Good luck.

Quote: billryan

Quote: AxelWolf

Going back to the days of guys like Lem Banker. Their record was outstanding when they posted up the numbers they supposedly got.

When it came down to it those numbers were never avaliable to anyone else. If you were lucky you might make 4 units per season.

Obviously a guanteeed 3 or 4 units per season on NFL would be awesome assuming you were getting down a substantial amount.

What does a guy do when he has 6 straight losses at 20k per bet (ouch!).
link to original post

Jeez. If he is a pro, he bets his usual 20K. If not, he calls his friend Marty.
link to original post

I have no idea what he himself was betting. I just know I was thinking about betting 5k a game until I realized you could never get the lines he was. I wasn't willing to risk running badly at that time. My money could be used for somthing better. I know there were people betting religiously for many thousands. apparently, he never had a losing year. but dont take that as gospel.

Quote: gamerfreak

it was UCONN -4
I can post tomorrow’s pick in the AM

he's 5-2 since I've been tracking on 3/17

all of the wins have been easy - none were close to losing -
3 out of 4 were double digits over the spread - the kraken win was 50% over the betting total

Creighton - 5 over Baylor - Creighton won by 9
Uconn - 4.5 over St Mary's - Uconn won by 15
Kraken vs. Stars - total 6 - the total came to 9
Lakers + 2 over Suns -I couldn't see +2 when I saw it -I could only see +1.5 - this is the only time this happened - Lakers won by 11
Uconn -4 - he said up to 5.5 - over Arkansas - Uconn won by 23


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POTD from HSRiddles on Reddit:

Quote:

Truly the least sweaty pick so far from our 40 game stretch - Uconn dominated pretty much from the get go and maintained a 20 point lead throughout the game. Little scare with the 10-0 full court pressure, but they came back strong with 4 threes back to back to bring it back up to 30. Next up in the round of 16, give me Creighton to crush the last Cinderella in the tournament by double digits.

POTD Record: 30-9-1Last 20:✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌✅✅✅

Yesterday's POTD: Uconn Huskies -4 (up to -5.5) vs. Arkansas Razorbacks | 3U ✅

Today's POTD: Creighton Bluejays -9.5 (up to -11) vs. Princeton Tigers | 3U

Time: March 24, 2023 | 9:00PM EST

**MODEL EXPLANATION:**Model takes into consideration typical stat lines and historic data but pieces in sentiment analysis which scrapes discussion about the game across many forums and platforms to garner additional insight into potential emotional considerations.

Pick spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15jc1_skXXFrodzHckhKDscwYqvPTgjFYbLJJ_UEZkt0/edit?usp=sharing

POTD Stats: +64.14U in 39 days | ≈65.86% ROI | Average odds -110

PICK REASON:

1. ⁠Creighton are a very deep team, with Ryan Nembhard leading the way with 30 points and the rest of their starters averaging +12 points with 5 great bench players have put up great numbers for the jays.
2. ⁠Creighton is shooting 47% from the floor this year, and 36% from 3 (8+ per game).
3. ⁠Creighton is coming off a 9 point win over Baylor, one of the better teams in the tournament this year.
4. ⁠Similar to my last POTD, this spread feels low and riding the wave of the Princeton upsets that have come over the last few games.
5. ⁠Kalkbrenner is a 7 ft 1 260 pounds beast, and look to see him absolutely dominate the floor and boards throughout the game.
6. ⁠Creighton has always been known as a defensive powerhouse, but have also been in the top 40 in all offensive categories under Kenpom.
7. ⁠Princeton is a much shorter team in the paint, with Kalkprenner having a solid 4 inches and 8 inches in overall reach above the center for Princeton. I expected Kalk to dominate the board on each side of the floor and give Creighton many second chance opportunities.
8. ⁠From a numbers POV, Creighton is ranked #12 overall on Kenpom, compared to Princeton who is ranked #91. Split out, this is based on a #22 adjusted ranked offensive and #14 ranked defense). From a pure numbers POV, Creighton is a significantly better team.
9. ⁠Princeton is a young team who aren't used to making it this far. The pressure will be immense, and it's an unknown how they will truly be able to handle the intense pressure from a tenured Creighton crew
10. ⁠The Tigers, just like Arkansas, are really bad outside of the paint, they rank #201 in 3PT%, and 199 in FT%, which are not great stats when trying to maximize your points. Creighton is a long and big team, and pushing the pain will not be easy against one of the best defensive teams in the country.
11. ⁠Overall, this is another mismatch with an inflated line due to Princeton's recent performance. Statistically, they are playing miles about where they should be, and I expect Creighton to wipe the floor with them on both sides of the court. Take Creighton -9.5.

Reminder: As much as this streak has been great, I am not a time traveler. When I've gotten on hotstreaks before, I saw a few people betting way above the unit size and betting their entire bankrolls. March madness has historically been hard to predict, so please bet responsibly <3

As always - thank you to everyone that's tipped. As my posts have been gaining traction, I've been spending a bit more time than usual trying to research my best pick, and I'm beyond happy to know I've made a bunch of you some good money, and hopefully can keep it rolling for as long as I can stomach it. I've had a few people message me that they want to tip but are still in a net loss position this year. I just wanted to re-iterate that as much as I appreciate tips, they are never expected - please only tip if you are in a financial position to do so.

Buy me a coffee | Paypal

Much love,

Riddles,

Discord: https://discord.gg/dpnyvnkhex

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my pick:


Xavier vs. Texas under 149

Xavier has gone under that total 8 times in the last 12

Texas has gone under that total 8 times in the last 12

as we get closer to the final 4 pressure increases and that can effect shooting %

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