2020 Kentucky Derby And Triple Crown

Shared Belief Stakes @ Del Mar - KD points earning race (50–20–10–5)
August 1, 2020 - Race 2 - Post Time: 5:30ET
https://www.kentuckyderby.com/prep-races/shared-belief

Past performances (click on Uncle Chuck's Ultimate pps):
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/Baffert/BAFFERT+BOB/9999/summary.htm

This is actually a really good field of 3 year olds for this event. Not easy to figure out who to pick. I am pulling for Honor AP. Of course he has to beat a trio of Bob Baffert trainees. The Baffert runners all need Derby points to make the gate in September. Honor AP already has enough to run. GLTA

With the Belmont in the books, as the months go by, I am now getting less and less interested in the Derby. It now seems like just another horse race, and the Triple Crown just doesn't exist this year. It will be interesting to see TV ratings. I am expecting down a lot, even though obviously the Belmont winner will be shooting for the COVID-19 Triple Crown.

interesting story (to me anyway) about Diane Crump who was the first woman to ride in the Kentucky Derby - she finished 15th out of 17 in 1970


Julie Krone. Benton Harbor, Michigan, U.S. Julieann Louise Krone (born July 24, 1963, Benton Harbor, Michigan), is a retired American jockey. In 1993, she became the first (and so far only) female jockey to win a Triple Crown race when she captured the Belmont Stakes aboard Colonial Affair.


this is Diane after winning the 1st race on the undercard of the 1970 KY Derby





https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/29/sports/horse-racing/diane-crump.html

Shared Belief Stakes @ Del Mar
Thousand Words won it. Small field after a couple of scratches. Had to be a disappointing race for the connections of Honor AP. Unless it was just a hard workout and they wanted to save a little for next month.
3 Derby preps left.

Travers Stakes @ Saratoga - KD points earning race (100–40–20–10)
August 8, 2020 - Race 11 - Post Time: 6:15ET
https://www.kentuckyderby.com/prep-races/travers-stakes
Past performances (click on Uncle Chuck's Ultimate pps):
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/Baffert/BAFFERT+BOB/9999/summary.htm
Great race. Tiz the Law is my choice and the current Derby favorite. Someone will really need to step up to beat him on Saturday.
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Ellis Park Derby @ Ellis Park - KD points earning race (50–20–10–5)
August 9, 2020 - Race 10 - Post Time: 6:10ET
https://www.kentuckyderby.com/prep-races/ellis-park-derby
Past performances (click on Shared Sense's Ultimate pps):
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/BradHCox/COX+BRAD+H/9999/summary.html
Large field trying for one more shot at Derby qualifying points. I am pulling for #12 Shared Sense as he is in my Derby barn. Terrible post all the way on the outside for Shared Sense, but good horses overcome these things. #4 Art Collector is getting good at the right time and will be tough in this spot.
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Last Kentucky Derby Future pool is also running this weekend:
https://www.kentuckyderby.com/wager/future-wager/derby-pool-7

One last prep race next week and one month until the 2020 Kentucky Derby.

For the Travers PP's you have to click on the third listing for Uncle Chuck

Travers Stakes @ Saratoga
https://www.kentuckyderby.com/prep-races/travers-stakes
Tiz The Law won easily breezily. Derby favorite!

23.65 and 48.36 for the first two quarters? They were walking around.

Ellis Park Derby
https://www.kentuckyderby.com/prep-races/ellis-park-derby
#4 Art Collector won it like a big favorite should. Serious looking Derby horse and may be the 2nd choice atm.
Poor showing for my horse #12 Shared Sense.

Pegasus @ Monmouth Park - KD points earning race (20–8–4–2)
August 15, 2020 - Race 10 - Post Time: 5:12ET
https://www.kentuckyderby.com/prep-races/pegasus
Past performances (click on Skyscanner's Ultimate pps):
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/Darley/BERNARDINI/2003/summary.html

I like #5 Pneumatic in this spot. Asmussen does not have Santana onboard, but picks up Jersey Joe Bravo for the mount. I also think #6 Arkaan has a shot. Arkaan will likely make the lead and could be tough to catch around 2 turns.

Last chance for derby points. GLTA

Can I assume if by some chance the KD winner sets an all time speed record it will not 'count' because the horses are 4 months older than normal? Am I correct in assuming that horses get faster from age 3 to age 4?

Quote: SOOPOO

Can I assume if by some chance the KD winner sets an all time speed record it will not 'count' because the horses are 4 months older than normal? Am I correct in assuming that horses get faster from age 3 to age 4?

yes, usually, but not always, the strongest and fastest horses in the country are older horses
believe it or not an academic study was done on this and is referenced by N.I.H., N.L.M. and NCBI.


from the study:

" A typical horse will improve by 10 (horse) lengths in sprints (less than 1 mile) and 15 lengths in routes (one mile or greater) from age 2 to 4 1/2.

We find that a typical horse’s peak racing age is 4.45 years."


so, if a record was set there would likely be an asterisk


but there's not much chance of that happening
the record for all 3 TC races has been set by Secretariat - although there was some controversy about the Preakness record

Tiz the Law is not in Secretariat's league - not by a longshot - and that's not meant to take anything away from him - no horse in history was in his league

TC winner American Pharoah ran the Derby in 203.02 and Secretariat did it in 159.40
that's almost 3.5 seconds faster
the rough rule of thumb is 5 lengths for every second
so using that as a guide Secretariat would have beaten American Pharoah by about 17 lengths

after Secretariat died a necropsy was done on him and it was found that his heart was more than twice the size of an average horse's heart
one, but not the only reason for his phenomenal performance was that he could process the intake and distribution of oxygen much better than other horses so he would become less tired







https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4013968/

Pegasus @ Monmouth Park
https://www.kentuckyderby.com/prep-races/pegasus
#5 Pneumatic won it as the favorite.

Next race - The Kentucky Derby! - in the Fall...

Kentucky Derby @ Churchill Downs - Grade 1 @ 10 Furlongs
Saturday Sept 5, 2020 - Race 14 - Post Time: 7:01 pm ET
https://www.kentuckyderby.com/horses
Past performances (click on Tiz The Law's Ultimate pps):
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/BarclayTagg/TAGG+BARCLAY/9999/summary.html

I am just going to pull for TTL and hope he gets a chance at the modified TC. GLTA

Wow - TTL is breaking from post 17 in the Derby
no horse has ever won breaking from post 17 in the previous 145 runnings of the Derby

there is a new starting gate to be used, which should help him, because there won't be a gap as there was under the old starting method, so he should not be as far outside to begin with

but still, that's very far outside, and he's likely to lose a lot of ground going around the turn unless Franco changes his style and bolts him to the front very quickly

I think it is very likely that Franco will be instructed to do exactly that
but if he has trouble on the break - bumping or a late break - the race could be a difficult one for him

it's also interesting that Manny Franco is a good jock, but he's not one of the best jocks out there
Equibase currently ranks him 8th for the year
Oritz is winning at 25%, and Rosario, Gaffalione and Saez are winning at about 19%
Franco is winning at 15%............................15% is good, but not great
some of that is due to the superstar jocks getting the best mounts a lot of the time, but still

Franco has been on TTL for the last 6 races - every race after TTL's maiden race - so it does make sense not to take him down for a superstar

Kentucky Derby.......................parimutuel handle...............................WinPlaceShow Pool




2020.......................................$31,110,660


2019........................................$65,376,107


2018........................................$62,336,448




2020 action less by more than half compared to prior years

Tiz the Law paid as much to place as he would have paid if he had won........................ $3.40
and he paid almost as much to show as he would have paid if he had won..........................$3.20

his win odds were .70/1

it's a great example of these huge race day events sometimes creating inefficient markets in the secondary pools