2020 Kentucky Derby And Triple Crown

Quote: ThatDonGuy

Quote: lilredrooster

"Fans can tune in to a special broadcast on NBC on May 2, from 3 to 6 p.m. EDT, which will feature the 2015 Kentucky Derby that began the legendary American Pharoah’s historic Triple Crown run (full NBC Sports show details to be announced next week). In addition, the NBC broadcast will highlight Churchill Downs’ first ever virtual horse race—The Kentucky Derby: Triple Crown Showdown, a computer-simulated version of a race under the historic Twin Spires of Churchill Downs. The virtual race, created by Inspired Entertainment, will feature the 13 past Triple Crown winners and use data algorithms including historical handicapping information about each horse, which helps to determine the probability of their potential finishing positions.

At first, I thought it said the past 13 Kentucky Derby winners (2007-2019), and wondered why they would stop there, before remembering that 2006 was Barbero.

But if it's the 13 Triple Crown winners, unless they box him in early or force him wide twice, I don't see how Secretariat doesn't run away with this.

Agree. I'm surprised they don't make it a trifecta or something like that so that it is less a lottery and more a contest. Secretariat should go off at 1-5. Although I've never seen a dead horse run....

I'm not so sure Secretariat would have an easy time with Citation who was before my time and before the time of most posting here

some facts about Citation:

Citation started the 1948 racing season with two victories over older horse Armed, who had been named Thoroughbred racing's 1947 Horse of the Year, in an allowance race and the Seminole Handicap. It is rare for a three-year-old to defeat older horses so early in the year, let alone a top handicap star such as Armed.

By the end of his three-year-old season, Citation had a record of 20 starts, 19 wins and $709,470, for a new single season record.

Toward the end of his three-year-old season, he developed an osselet.The osselet injury kept Citation from racing in 1949, but he came back to race in 1950, winning his 16th race in a row at Santa Anita Park (a streak that stood alone among major North American stakes horses until Cigar equaled the feat in 1994–96

almost flying - horse racing's first millionaire

Secretariat has the track record. 1:59.40 - Secretariat (1973).
It would be weird if he somehow "lost" against the other great Triple Crown winners. Of course we do not know the inputs of the "virtual event" (by Inspired Entertainment). I will only be disappointed if a Baffert TC winner "wins" (AP or Justify). Should be fun to watch and will make for an entertaining first Saturday in May.

The Arkansas Derby will also be run on the same day (in two split races of 22 entrants).

Kinda reminds me of the baseball strike in 1981 (I think), there was no all-star game so they created one for a radio broadcast, with all-stars and hall of famers. My college roomies and I drank beer on our front lawn and spent 3 hours listening to the "game"..which ended on a home run by Hank Aaron.

Secretariat wins I say

Quote: Keeneone

Secretariat has the track record. 1:59.40 - Secretariat (1973).

yes, on 2nd thought I would have to agree that Secretariat would beat Citation and probably pretty easily
I looked up Citation's time in the Derby and it was 2:05.40

that's a full 6 seconds difference and something that cannot be accounted for by a track variant
the rough standard is that 1 second is equal to 5 lengths


then I learned that Citation ran on a sloppy track in the Derby so I looked for more info


Preakness:

Secretariat...............................1:53

Citation.....................................202.40




not much chance for Citation unless Secretariat has a bad off day like he once did with an abscessed tooth


https://www.horseracingnation.com/race/1948_Preakness#

Just like any sporting event, the outcome is the outcome, but based on odds. It's one reason why I'm not huge on sports, because it doesn't prove anything besides what happened, happened and let's watch another coin flip. It's like throwing 1 round of roulette, playing 1 spin on a slot, one hand of BJ, there is never really a champion. If there were clones of these horses in real life and they raced each other, that would be cool. Reminds me of a thought the other day, if we were to clone George Washington, or Abraham Lincoln, what their life would be like, many would be total losers.

I am announcing a free roll for "The Kentucky Derby: Triple Crown Showdown". Virtual race post time TBD, but will be broadcast on NBC this Saturday May 2, from 3 to 6 p.m. EDT. Hopefully this will be fun.

1st Place Prize = $25.00 Walmart e-gift card.
2nd Place Prize = $10.00 Uber/Ubereats e-gift card.

13 Triple Crown winners = 13 official entries. I am also participating in the free roll, so I will have one horse in the race. Eight members have already posted in the 2020 Kentucky Derby thread:
Keeneone, Suited89, ThatDonGuy, SOOPOO, onenickelmiracle, lilredrooster, bobbartop, Johnzimbo
These members will have automatic entry into the free roll (if they wish to participate). Please post confirmation in the thread if you do/do not wish to participate. Remaining entries will be filled on a first post first served basis. So make a post in this thread if you want to get a remaining entry. Once 13 entries are confirmed, I will use a random number generator to assign the 13 horses (1-->13 post positions). Dead heats will result in splitting/sharing of the prizes. :)
Permission for this freeroll has been granted by WOV management.
https://www.kentuckyderby.com/horses/news/triple-crown-winners-to-race-in-virtual-kentucky-derby-for-charity-on-the-first-saturday-in-may-on-nbc
13 Triple Crown winners: Sir Barton (1919), Gallant Fox (1930), Omaha (1935), War Admiral (1937), Whirlaway (1941), Count Fleet (1943), Assault (1946), Citation (1948), Secretariat (1973), Seattle Slew (1977), Affirmed (1978), American Pharoah (2015), and Justify (2018)

That's awesome, Keeneone! I'd like an entry if they are still available.

This reminds me of my parents' Derby parties. My Dad has me go to the local card room (which also has simulcast wagering) and get a $2 win ticket on each runner. Then, everyone at the party draws a ticket out of a hat as a door prize, and everyone has a horse to root for.

I'm in. I choose Secretariat.

that's very generous of you K
I'll opt out and give someone else a chance to win
good luck guys



interestingly, (to me) Secretariat lost 5 races in his career:



Woodward Stakes...................................................... finished 2nd...........................beaten by a 16/1 shot - Prove Out
Whitney Stakes..........................finished 2nd..............................................................................beaten by Onion
Wood Memorial Stakes............................................................finished 3rd......................................beaten by both Angle Light and Sham
Champagne Stakes.......................finished 2nd............................he was DQed - he bore in and bumped Stop the Music who got the win

and his very first race - a maiden race - he finished 4th


so he's not unbeatable