onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
Joined: Jan 26, 2012
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April 28th, 2020 at 4:18:16 PM permalink
Quote: onenickelmiracle

I'm in. I choose Secretariat.


I'm not sure how they're doing it, but this is is a bad pick. I was trying to look up fastest triple crown winners in derby, and it's actually not easy. Just keep finding the same stuff over and over again. There was something about how Secretariat ran a bad race up to the derby because of a sore in his mouth. I'd imagine based on races before the derby, it kind of hurts him. Spent 10-15 minutes googling, then it became not worth the time.
In the land of the blind, the man with one eye is the care taker. Hold my beer.
Keeneone
Keeneone
Joined: Aug 16, 2014
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April 28th, 2020 at 5:59:57 PM permalink
I would guess the creators of the algorithm will be using many inputs. Obviously, using only the raw time of the Triple Crown winner's Kentucky Derby would be simplistic. Hopefully they will explain a little more about how they do it. The more I think about it, I kinda agree that Secretariat is not a lock in this scenario. I agree he is the "handicapper's" favorite (as others have already mentioned) and will likely be the fan favorite as well for this event.
billryan
billryan
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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Keeneone
April 28th, 2020 at 6:41:29 PM permalink
Will the Belmont still be run 5 weeks after the Derby? I'm not sure Belmont is even open at that time of the year.
Keeneone
Keeneone
Joined: Aug 16, 2014
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April 28th, 2020 at 7:21:22 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

Will the Belmont still be run 5 weeks after the Derby? I'm not sure Belmont is even open at that time of the year.


I don't think a decision has been made about the Belmont Stakes or the Preakness yet. It is certainly possible the order of the Triple Crown races will be different this year.
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Arkansas Derby will be run @ Oaklawn Park in 2 divisions this Saturday. 2 horses have already scratched (one from each race).

Race #11 (Post Time: 6:29/( 5:29)/ 4:29/ 3:29)
Ark Derby #1 past performances (click on Charlatan's Ultimate PPs):
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/Baffert/BAFFERT_BOB/9999/summary.htm
Scratch #6 - Shooters Shoot

Race #13 (Post Time: 7:43/( 6:43)/ 5:43/ 4:43)
Ark Derby #2 past performances (click on Nadal's Ultimate PPs):
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/Baffert/BAFFERT_BOB/9999/summary.htm
Scratch #8 - Fast Enough

Bob Baffert trains the favorite in both races (Charlatan and Nadal). The second divison looks tougher on paper. My Derby future hopeful (#7 Silver Prospector) is in the second group. I think he was a little tired in his last race (his 3rd start in 7 weeks). This will be the 10th start of his career, the most of any runner in both races. A little break between events may be just what he needed (7 weeks since his last race). I will be pulling for him on Saturday.
billryan
billryan
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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onenickelmiracleKeeneone
April 28th, 2020 at 8:28:44 PM permalink
I'd love to see a 20 horse Belmont Stakes as the first leg.
Keeneone
Keeneone
Joined: Aug 16, 2014
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April 29th, 2020 at 9:51:21 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

I'd love to see a 20 horse Belmont Stakes as the first leg.


I am cool with whatever happens this year. I would just like them to keep the race @ 1.5 miles. There are articles suggesting it could/should be shortened if it goes before the Preakness/K Derby.
MidwestAP
MidwestAP
Joined: Feb 19, 2012
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Keeneoneonenickelmiracle
April 29th, 2020 at 10:55:45 AM permalink
If there's still a spot open, would love to participate. Looking forward to watching this pseudo sporting event this weekend.
Keeneone
Keeneone
Joined: Aug 16, 2014
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April 29th, 2020 at 11:06:31 AM permalink
The Kentucky Derby: Triple Crown Showdown - WOV free roll.

Entrants: 5 confirmed (of 13 total)
Keeneone = confirmed
Suited 89 = ?
ThatDonGuy = ?
SOOPOO = ?
onenickelmiracle = confirmed
lilredrooster = not participating to allow others to play
bobbartop = ?
Johnzimbo = ?
Joeman = confirmed
billryan = confirmed
MidwestAP = confirmed

I will do a random drawing to assign the horses once we have 13 entries (or Friday at the latest).
Keeneone
Keeneone
Joined: Aug 16, 2014
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April 29th, 2020 at 11:07:03 AM permalink

#1 Affirmed (1978, Steve Cauthen, Laz Barrera, 5-1);
#2 Assault (1946, Warren Mehrtens, Max Hirsch, 20-1);
#3 Secretariat (1973, Ron Turcotte, Lucien Lauren, 7-2);
#4 Sir Barton (1919, Johnny Loftus, Guy Bedwell, 20-1);
#5 Seattle Slew (1977, Jean Cruguet, Billy Turner Jr., 5-1);
#6 American Phraoah (2015, Victor Espinoza, Bob Baffert, 6-1);
#7 Gallant Fox (1930, Earl Sande, “Sunny” Jim Fitzsimmons, 20-1);
#8 Citation (1948, Eddie Arcaro, Ben Jones, 4-1);
#9 War Admiral (1937, Charlie Kurtsinger, George Conway, 8-1);
#10 Whirlaway (1941, Eddie Arcaro, Ben Jones, 4-1);
#11 Count Fleet (1943, Johnny Longden, Don Cameron, 6-1);
#12 Justify (2018, Mike Smith, Bob Baffert, 15-1);
#13 Omaha (1935, Willie “Smokey” Saunders, “Sunny” Jim Fitzsimmons, 20-1)
https://www.kentuckyderby.com/horses/news/secretariat-made-7-2-favorite-in-kentucky-derby-triple-crown-showdown?sc_src=email_1352716&sc_lid=81795629&sc_uid=PVvzparBsp&sc_llid=150911
https://www.paulickreport.com/news/triple-crown/hard-to-deny-his-pps-secretariat-made-7-2-favorite-in-virtual-derby/
Virtual race post time: 5:45 p.m (ET). It will be broadcast on NBC this Saturday May 2.
Johnzimbo
Johnzimbo
Joined: Sep 29, 2010
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Keeneone
April 29th, 2020 at 11:58:25 AM permalink
I am in but will not win. That's my prediction

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