2020 Kentucky Derby And Triple Crown

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May 1st, 2020 at 1:09:25 PM permalink

Will the weather be a factor? They should put each Derby's conditions on a ping pong ball and randomly pick one.

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SOOPOO

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May 1st, 2020 at 3:57:28 PM permalink

Quote: billryan
Will the weather be a factor? They should put each Derby's conditions on a ping pong ball and randomly pick one.

I love this idea. Have the post positions been determined yet? Has any jockey ridden two of these Triple Crown Winners?

What are the odds on a steward's inquiry? Pre race scratch due to injury?

Trivia question..... Who was a security guard assigned to Spectacular Bid in the 1979 Belmont Stakes?

Answer---- ME! I was a summer Pinkerton fill in, and would be assigned to random places depending on who called in sick. Guarded a parking lot, Spectacular Bid, Blondie, the Clydesdales, hot dog stand. I was versatile.
I was in a full Pinkerton uniform with a holster.... but NO GUN!
I always joked that if criminals pointed a gun at me and told me to drop my gun, would they believe me that I didn't have one?

billryan

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May 1st, 2020 at 4:30:19 PM permalink

Quote: SOOPOO
I love this idea. Have the post positions been determined yet? Has any jockey ridden two of these Triple Crown Winners?

What are the odds on a steward's inquiry? Pre race scratch due to injury?

Trivia question..... Who was a security guard assigned to Spectacular Bid in the 1979 Belmont Stakes?

Answer---- ME! I was a summer Pinkerton fill in, and would be assigned to random places depending on who called in sick. Guarded a parking lot, Spectacular Bid, Blondie, the Clydesdales, hot dog stand. I was versatile.
I was in a full Pinkerton uniform with a holster.... but NO GUN!
I always joked that if criminals pointed a gun at me and told me to drop my gun, would they believe me that I didn't have one?

What a great summer to work there. If I'm thinking of the right summer, they had Rockpile, Jimmy Buffet, Blondie, and an insane amount of folks for the Dave Mason show. I had worked security for Bartarama, which did the flea markets at Aqueduct and Belmont and got pretty friendly with many of the Pinkerton brass as we worked fairly closely.

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Keeneone

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May 1st, 2020 at 4:49:10 PM permalink

Random draw has occurred and the results are below. We got 7 of 13 possible confirmed entries. So Keenone gets one horse and everyone else get 2 horses. I will also add a new rule of one prize per person. So we will have 3 unique winners of the prizes.

1st Place Prize = $25.00 Walmart e-gift card.
2nd Place Prize = $10.00 Uber/Ubereats e-gift card.
Last Place Prize = $10.00 (freeroll from billryan)

#1 Affirmed (1978, Steve Cauthen, Laz Barrera, 5-1); billryan
#2 Assault (1946, Warren Mehrtens, Max Hirsch, 20-1); Johnzimbo
#3 Secretariat (1973, Ron Turcotte, Lucien Lauren, 7-2); Johnzimbo
#4 Sir Barton (1919, Johnny Loftus, Guy Bedwell, 20-1); Joeman
#5 Seattle Slew (1977, Jean Cruguet, Billy Turner Jr., 5-1); onenickelmiracle
#6 American Phraoah (2015, Victor Espinoza, Bob Baffert, 6-1); Keeneone
#7 Gallant Fox (1930, Earl Sande, �Sunny� Jim Fitzsimmons, 20-1); onenickelmiracle
#8 Citation (1948, Eddie Arcaro, Ben Jones, 4-1); billryan
#9 War Admiral (1937, Charlie Kurtsinger, George Conway, 8-1); SOOPOO
#10 Whirlaway (1941, Eddie Arcaro, Ben Jones, 4-1); MidwestAP
#11 Count Fleet (1943, Johnny Longden, Don Cameron, 6-1); MidwestAP
#12 Justify (2018, Mike Smith, Bob Baffert, 15-1); SOOPOO
#13 Omaha (1935, Willie �Smokey� Saunders, �Sunny� Jim Fitzsimmons, 20-1) Joeman

Good Luck To All!
Race post time: 5:45 p.m (ET). It will be broadcast on NBC this Saturday May 2.
https://www.kentuckyderby.com/horses/triple-crown-sweepstakes

Johnzimbo

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May 1st, 2020 at 7:32:56 PM permalink

Looks like we all have a shot...except Joeman :) Just kidding, he needs an Upset

onenickelmiracle

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May 1st, 2020 at 8:31:28 PM permalink

Seattle Slew was almost my pick. My feeling American Pharoah wins rigged race.

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unJon

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May 2nd, 2020 at 7:35:54 AM permalink

Good luck all! Waited to post in this thread until the free roll filled up. Just checked an online book and see the following odds for which they are accepting wagers:

81001 Affirmed, 1978 +650
81002 Assault, 1946 +2500
81003 Secretariat, 1973 +135
81004 Sir Barton, 1919 +3100
81005 Seattle Slew, 1977 +450
81006 American Pharoah, 2015 +900
81007 Gallant Fox, 1930 +2600
81008 Citation, 1948 +475
81009 War Admiral, 1937 +1100
81010 Whirlaway, 1941 +1100
81011 Count Fleet, 1943 +1300
81012 Justify, 2018 +2000
81013 Omaha, 1935 +2500

The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.

Joeman

Joeman

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May 2nd, 2020 at 10:11:30 AM permalink

Quote: Johnzimbo
Looks like we all have a shot...except Joeman

At least I am prime position to take the last place award! Thanks, billryan for funding that one!

"Dealer has 'rock'... Pay 'paper!'"

Johnzimbo

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May 2nd, 2020 at 12:21:09 PM permalink

Watching the show makes me remember how much I suck as a handicapper. Bet Dortmund thinking he was the better of the two Bafferts :)

Keeneone

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May 2nd, 2020 at 1:46:08 PM permalink

We are about 1 hour away from post time of the Virtual Race.
----------

The split (2 races) Arkansas Derby will be @ ~3:30pm ET (race #11) and ~4:45pm ET (race #13)

Keeneone

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May 2nd, 2020 at 3:56:43 PM permalink

The official order of finish:
1st - #3 Secretariat (1973, Ron Turcotte, Lucien Lauren, 7-2);
Johnzimbo
2nd - #8 Citation (1948, Eddie Arcaro, Ben Jones, 4-1);
billryan
3rd - #5 Seattle Slew (1977, Jean Cruguet, Billy Turner Jr., 5-1); onenickelmiracle
4 - #1 Affirmed (1978, Steve Cauthen, Laz Barrera, 5-1); billryan
5 - #6 American Phraoah (2015, Victor Espinoza, Bob Baffert, 6-1); Keeneone
6 - #10 Whirlaway (1941, Eddie Arcaro, Ben Jones, 4-1); MidwestAP
7 - #11 Count Fleet (1943, Johnny Longden, Don Cameron, 6-1); MidwestAP
8 - #12 Justify (2018, Mike Smith, Bob Baffert, 15-1); SOOPOO
9 - #2 Assault (1946, Warren Mehrtens, Max Hirsch, 20-1); Johnzimbo
10 - #9 War Admiral (1937, Charlie Kurtsinger, George Conway, 8-1); SOOPOO
11 - #13 Omaha (1935, Willie �Smokey� Saunders, �Sunny� Jim Fitzsimmons, 20-1) Joeman
12 - #7 Gallant Fox (1930, Earl Sande, �Sunny� Jim Fitzsimmons, 20-1); onenickelmiracle
13 - #4 Sir Barton (1919, Johnny Loftus, Guy Bedwell, 20-1);
Joeman
https://publish.twitter.com/?query=https%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2FDerbyMedia%2Fstatus%2F1256711457087119360&widget=Tweet
----------

1st Place Prize = $25.00 Walmart e-gift card = #3 Secretariat (1973, Ron Turcotte, Lucien Lauren, 7-2);
Johnzimbo
2nd Place Prize = $10.00 Uber/Ubereats e-gift card = #8 Citation (1948, Eddie Arcaro, Ben Jones, 4-1);
billryan
Last Place Prize = $10.00 (freeroll from billryan) = #4 Sir Barton (1919, Johnny Loftus, Guy Bedwell, 20-1);
Joeman

*Prizes will be sent via WOV private messages.*

Thank you to all participants.

Johnzimbo

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May 2nd, 2020 at 4:47:14 PM permalink

Thanks all, made it more fun to watch

SOOPOO

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May 2nd, 2020 at 4:52:31 PM permalink

Chalk wins.

onenickelmiracle

onenickelmiracle

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May 2nd, 2020 at 4:59:57 PM permalink

The race was weird to watch, didn't think I'd get that lucky seeing Seattle Slew start out with the lead. I wonder in how many trials Secretariat doesn't go wire to wire.

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Keeneone

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May 3rd, 2020 at 10:03:34 AM permalink

Fittingly, the favorite (Secretariat) won the event (as many here predicted). It was difficult to find particular horses while watching the race. I watched the replay a few times to find the silks and hat color of the runner I wanted to follow. It certainly was not as good as the real Derby, but the event was for charity and it was a fun distraction. Here is the video of the Virtual race:

lilredrooster

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May 3rd, 2020 at 10:34:03 AM permalink

Quote: onenickelmiracle
The race was weird to watch, didn't think I'd get that lucky seeing Seattle Slew start out with the lead. I wonder in how many trials Secretariat doesn't go wire to wire.

in the Derby and Preakness he came from way back - early in the Derby he was 11th
in the Preakness he made a stunning, sweeping move to go from last to first unleashing a spectacular burst of speed
I've never before and never after seen a horse make a move like that
you can see the move begin at 0:35 in the vid

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ThatDonGuy

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May 3rd, 2020 at 10:34:41 AM permalink

If they posted an official final time, I haven't found it, but it appears to be a high 2:00, if not 2:01. They pretty much walked the first six furlongs.

billryan

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May 3rd, 2020 at 10:48:06 AM permalink

Quote: lilredrooster
in the Derby and Preakness he came from way back - early in the Derby he was 11th
in the Preakness he made a stunning, sweeping move to go from last to first unleashing a spectacular burst of speed
I've never before and never after seen a horse make a move like that
you can see the move begin at 0:35 in the vid

The mighty Forego did that just about every race. He was born with an extra gear or two. He'd spot horses ten pounds and sleepwalk through the first half of a race before deciding to get to work.
In the 76 Marlboro Cup, he went from being in second to eleventh and was well back at the top of the stretch before winning.
He finished fourth behind Big Sexy in their Derby but ended up with more wins and more money than Big Red since he was a gelding and not put out to stud.

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lilredrooster

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May 20th, 2020 at 3:46:13 AM permalink

the Belmont Stakes will be run on June 20 with no spectators in the stands and at a shorter distance - 9 furlongs instead of 12 furlongs - 1.125 miles instead of 1.5 miles

the Derby will be run on Sept. 5 and the Preakness on Oct. 3

it seems really weird - without the traditional way I think I'm kind of losing interest

the Belmont Stakes has always been the true test of a Champion because it's considerably farther than the horses have ever run in their careers

now it's not

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/19/sports/horse-racing/belmont-stakes-triple-crown.html?action=click&module=Well&pgtype=Homepage&section=Sports

https://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/horse-racing/bs-sp-preakness-belmont-move-20200519-7szlaqi47vby5lsljjsmxgn7yy-story.html

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billryan

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May 20th, 2020 at 9:34:54 AM permalink

I understand what they are doing, but I'd prefer they just cancel the Triple Crown for the year. Any horse that manages to win it would be tainted anyway.

The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened

beachbumbabs

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May 20th, 2020 at 11:23:53 AM permalink

Quote: billryan
I understand what they are doing, but I'd prefer they just cancel the Triple Crown for the year. Any horse that manages to win it would be tainted anyway.

I think the sport almost requires it get run. I don't know that much about horse racing, but it's 2yo horses that run those, right? They have many millions invested in those horses who won't still be 2yo next year, there's very little contact needed among jockeys, horses don't get COVID, it's great TV, so why not run them?

If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.

Joeman

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May 20th, 2020 at 11:49:43 AM permalink

Quote: beachbumbabs
I think the sport almost requires it get run. I don't know that much about horse racing, but it's 2yo horses that run those, right? They have many millions invested in those horses who won't still be 2yo next year, there's very little contact needed among jockeys, horses don't get COVID, it's great TV, so why not run them?

Babs, they are still planning on running all 3 races. The order has just changed since the KY Derby will now be run in September (and the Preakness in October).

I read Bill's post as: they shouldn't award the "Triple Crown" this year, even if one horse were to win all 3 races. Not just because of the race order change, but with the Belmont shortening it's length to 9 furlongs instead of the usual 12, it is no longer the test it usually is. Like LRR said above:

Quote: lilredrooster
The Belmont Stakes has always been the true test of a Champion because it's considerably farther than the horses have ever run in their careers

now it's not

With the distance of all three 'jewels' being within 1 furlong of each other, winning all 3 is easier for a single horse to accomplish.

I think I agree with Bill. At the very least, an asterisk needs to be involved!

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SOOPOO

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May 20th, 2020 at 12:11:20 PM permalink

When you think those involved couldn't do anything stupider.... they do! The leadership of the 3 races needed to work together to keep the sequence of the 3 races intact. The 'test' of the Triple Crown involved winning two similar races, the Derby and the Preakness, with just two weeks between them, then having a 3 week break before the toughest test in Horse Racing, the Belmont. For casual fans ( like me) the Belmont became must see TV if a horse won both the Derby and the Preakness. I now feel if there is no Belmont/Derby winner, the Preakness will be not even worth putting on TV.

If there was nothing they could do about the dates for logistical reasons, at least leave the Belmont at 1.5 miles. It would actually be EASIER for the horses as they will be a little bit older and they could have been training specifically for that race distance without having run two tough races back to back before the Belmont.

lilredrooster

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May 20th, 2020 at 1:55:24 PM permalink

Quote: beachbumbabs
I think the sport almost requires it get run. I don't know that much about horse racing, but it's 2yo horses that run those, right? They have many millions invested in those horses who won't still be 2yo next year, there's very little contact needed among jockeys, horses don't get COVID, it's great TV, so why not run them?

they're 3 year olds

the Breeders Cup Juvenile, usually run in October determines the 2 year old Champion

the winner is usually the early favorite when the Derby futures betting opens up in November

Last edited by: lilredrooster on May 20, 2020

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billryan

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May 20th, 2020 at 3:35:12 PM permalink

To win the Triple Crown, a horse must win three races, at different distances, in five weeks. The last leg, the Belmont, is called The Test of Champions because it is a mile and a half.
I'd say any deviation from that voids the whole thing, and I think most people will agree.

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SOOPOO

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May 20th, 2020 at 3:58:34 PM permalink

Quote: billryan
To win the Triple Crown, a horse must win three races, at different distances, in five weeks. The last leg, the Belmont, is called The Test of Champions because it is a mile and a half.
I'd say any deviation from that voids the whole thing, and I think most people will agree.

I tried to say this but took like 20 sentences...

unJon

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May 20th, 2020 at 6:14:41 PM permalink

Quote: billryan
To win the Triple Crown, a horse must win three races, at different distances, in five weeks. The last leg, the Belmont, is called The Test of Champions because it is a mile and a half.
I'd say any deviation from that voids the whole thing, and I think most people will agree.

I tend to agree with this. Was also curious so looked up the length historically. Found this on Wikipedia:

Quote:
The race has also been run at the following distances: a mile and five furlongs in 1867�1873; a mile and a quarter in 1890�1892, 1895, and 1904�1905; a mile and a furlong in 1893�1894; and a mile and three furlongs from 1896�1903 and 1906�1925.

One of those years when it ran a furlong shorter had a triple crown winner with Sir Barton in 1919. Will be even shorter this year.

Last two years I�ve taken my two young boys to watch the races at Belmont. Both really fun days. It was great to see Justify win the triple crown. Though overall it was also nice last year when it was not as crowded because there was not a Triple Crown contender. Will miss not going this year.

The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.

billryan

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May 20th, 2020 at 11:20:20 PM permalink

Quote: unJon
I tend to agree with this. Was also curious so looked up the length historically. Found this on Wikipedia:

Quote:
The race has also been run at the following distances: a mile and five furlongs in 1867�1873; a mile and a quarter in 1890�1892, 1895, and 1904�1905; a mile and a furlong in 1893�1894; and a mile and three furlongs from 1896�1903 and 1906�1925.
One of those years when it ran a furlong shorter had a triple crown winner with Sir Barton in 1919. Will be even shorter this year.

Last two years I�ve taken my two young boys to watch the races at Belmont. Both really fun days. It was great to see Justify win the triple crown. Though overall it was also nice last year when it was not as crowded because there was not a Triple Crown contender. Will miss not going this year.

If I recall correctly, Sir Barton was awarded the Triple Crown years later. It didn't become a thing until much later but then they retroactively awarded a couple of horses who had won the three races. These days there is a big bonus for winning the three races but even that is fairly new.
By the way, at one point, many years ago, both the Preakness and Belmont Stakes were held in NY, with the Preakness being a handicap race.

Edit- there was a bonus for winning the Triple Crown but it ended a few years back when the broadcast rights were split up. In years that the TC is on the line, Belmonts ratings go through the roof, where the other two races are pretty steady.

The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened

lilredrooster

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May 21st, 2020 at 6:08:04 AM permalink

this is a very interesting (to me anyway) Derby story
in 1968 the horse Dancer's Image won the Derby
drug testing done after the race found the illegal drug "bute" (phenylbutazone) in his system
Dancer's Image was disqualified and placed last 𝘣𝘶𝘵 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘥𝘪𝘥𝘯'𝘵 𝘩𝘢𝘱𝘱𝘦𝘯 𝘶𝘯𝘵𝘪𝘭 𝘛𝘶𝘦𝘴𝘥𝘢𝘺
the horse named Forward Pass was declared the winner
of course, all of the bettors who bet on Forward Pass to win were S.O.L.

the owner, Peter Fuller, was a vociferous supporter of the Civil Rights movement and believed he had been sabotaged somehow

lawsuits followed and Fuller lost

ironically, less than a year after this, the Kentucky Racing Commission made bute legal

https://www.history.com/news/kentucky-derby-disqualification-dancers-image-196

the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him

billryan

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May 21st, 2020 at 6:24:31 AM permalink

Quote: lilredrooster
this is a very interesting (to me anyway) Derby story
in 1968 the horse Dancer's Image won the Derby
drug testing done after the race found the illegal drug "bute" (phenylbutazone) in his system
Dancer's Image was disqualified and placed last 𝘣𝘶𝘵 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘥𝘪𝘥𝘯'𝘵 𝘩𝘢𝘱𝘱𝘦𝘯 𝘶𝘯𝘵𝘪𝘭 𝘛𝘶𝘦𝘴𝘥𝘢𝘺
the horse named Forward Pass was declared the winner
of course, all of the bettors who bet on Forward Pass to win were S.O.L.

the owner, Peter Fuller, was a vociferous supporter of the Civil Rights movement and believed he had been sabotaged somehow

lawsuits followed and Fuller lost

ironically, less than a year after this, the Kentucky Racing Commission made bute legal

https://www.history.com/news/kentucky-derby-disqualification-dancers-image-196 [/

Forward Pass went on to win the Peakness, which meant he was only one win away from the Triple Crown, which many people thought would be heavily tainted. He was favored in the Belmont, but lost to a horse named Stagedoor Johnny.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened

lilredrooster

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May 21st, 2020 at 7:33:31 AM permalink

Triple Crown winner Justify was found to have the illegal drug scopolamine in his system after the Santa Anita Derby
many say that should have disqualified him from participating in the Derby
silver haired Baffert, his trainer, is racing's golden boy
he has a cohort on the California Racing Board that made the decision not to disqualify him

Baffert has been investigated before when he had 7 horses die on him in 16 months because he was giving them thyroid medication although they didn't have thyroid problems

he has an extremely high win % and in the money % which makes me suspicious of him - this year so far 31% winners and 62% in the money
that's way, way higher than average - 20% winners is considered great
generally when trainers show numbers like that they draw suspicion - not so much Baffert - he does get a lot of great horses to train but still, it's suspicious

Baffert's claim as to why Justify should not have been disqualified is not believable to me
I believe the good ole boy California horse racing culture gave him a big, big break he shouldn't have gotten

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/11/sports/horse-racing/justify-drug-test-triple-crown-kentucky-derby.html

the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him

billryan

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May 21st, 2020 at 8:17:54 AM permalink

Quote: lilredrooster
Triple Crown winner Justify was found to have the illegal drug scopolamine in his system after the Santa Anita Derby
many say that should have disqualified him from participating in the Derby
silver haired Baffert, his trainer, is racing's golden boy
he has a cohort on the California Racing Board that made the decision not to disqualify him

Baffert has been investigated before when he had 7 horses die on him in 16 months because he was giving them thyroid medication although they didn't have thyroid problems

he has an extremely high win % and in the money % which makes me suspicious of him - this year so far 31% winners and 62% in the money
that's way, way higher than average - 20% winners is considered great
generally when trainers show numbers like that they draw suspicion - not so much Baffert - he does get a lot of great horses to train but still, it's suspicious

Baffert's claim as to why Justify should not have been disqualified is not believable to me
I believe the good ole boy California horse racing culture gave him a big, big break he shouldn't have gotten

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/11/sports/horse-racing/justify-drug-test-triple-crown-kentucky-derby.html

I'd have found the article more compelling if the author hadn't brought in the foreign investors with ties to George Soros.
The article mentions that it is possible that it came from food contamination and that that excuse has worked in the past. It would be nice to know how often it has happened and the penalties imposed on those horses.
Otherwise the story seems to be that a racing board whose job it is to promote the sport gave favorable treatment to its star player and his horse. Shocking, no? Is racing better off with a Triple Crown winner or without one?

The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened

lilredrooster

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May 21st, 2020 at 9:26:57 AM permalink

Quote: billryan
Is racing better off with a Triple Crown winner or without one?

there was no TC winner from 1978 to 2015 - that's 37 years
most experts say the reason is that breeding strategies changed - horses started to be bred for speed, not stamina

then Baffert has 2 TC winners in 3 years - American Pharoah and Justify

I like to see a TC winner too but I wan't it to be legit, not phony

can I prove Baffert is doing illegal stuff? - no -

but it's very hard for me to believe one trainer is so much greater than all the others

I believe he's a great trainer, but I don't believe he can have a much greater amount of skill with horses than other trainers

this is not a field with a lot of secrecy - all kinds of talk and gossip on the backstretch - there are no secret techniques

the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him

billryan

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May 21st, 2020 at 10:38:13 AM permalink

I don't think it's a matter of BB cheating. It's just he cheats better than the rest of them.
When Woody Stephens won five straight Belmont Stakes, everyone said he must be doing something. I always wondered why he would cheat one day a year.

The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened

ThatDonGuy

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May 21st, 2020 at 11:09:59 AM permalink

Quote: billryan
If I recall correctly, Sir Barton was awarded the Triple Crown years later. It didn't become a thing until much later but then they retroactively awarded a couple of horses who had won the three races. These days there is a big bonus for winning the three races but even that is fairly new.

There's a trophy, but I don't think the cash bonus exists any more.

I remember the old Triple Crown Challenge, where there was a bonus ($5 million at first, then lowered to the difference between the three winners' purses and $5 million, then I think it went back up to the full amount again) for winning the triple crown, but Visa pulled it before it was ever won. There was also a points system where a horse could win $1 million, but that part stopped earlier; I think it had something to do with a horse that broke down at the Belmont and had to be killed, and the horse would have won the million even if it had finished last, but since it didn't "start and finish all three races," another horse - I think the only horse that finished all three that year - won it.

billryan

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May 21st, 2020 at 11:21:21 AM permalink

As I remember it, the Bonus came about because a racetrack in NJ offered a bonus to any horse that won both the Kentucky Derby and a race on it's track that was held the day before the Belmont.

Triple Crowns seem to come in bunches. Five in about twelve years, followed by a long drought, then three in five years, a prolonged dry spell and then two in three years.

The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened

SOOPOO

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May 22nd, 2020 at 5:06:52 AM permalink

Can any of you horse guys give a reason why the Belmont won't be a mile and a half? Since it will be the first race the trainers will have it easier to prepare their horse for the longer distance. So safer than usual. I just don't understand.....

lilredrooster

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May 22nd, 2020 at 7:41:17 AM permalink

Quote: SOOPOO
Can any of you horse guys give a reason why the Belmont won't be a mile and a half? Since it will be the first race the trainers will have it easier to prepare their horse for the longer distance. So safer than usual. I just don't understand.....

the decision was made by Dave O'rourke the CEO of NYRA (the New York Racing Association)
this is the explanation he gives in the link which is not a very good one:

�Because of the way the race is now positioned, it�s the right distance,� O�Rourke said about shortening the race to 1 1/8 miles. �We respect the tradition of it, but it�s not the third leg in a five-week series anymore for 3-year-olds early in the year. It�s a 3-year-old race in June before any of the others, so the distance to us makes sense. It�ll be a big field. This will be the year everything goes out the window. If there is ever a time to do something different it�s this year.�

I think the real reason is these are young horses and they've never run further than one and one eighth miles
I believe they felt it was too much to ask of them to run 1.5 miles without having first built up to 1.25 miles in the Derby and then close to the same distance in the Preakness

the Belmont Stakes has traditionally been - 𝘰𝘬𝘢𝘺, 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘴𝘩𝘰𝘸𝘦𝘥 𝘶𝘴 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘤𝘢𝘯 𝘳𝘶𝘯 𝘢 𝘮𝘪𝘭𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘢 𝘲𝘶𝘢𝘳𝘵𝘦𝘳 𝘯𝘰𝘸 𝘸𝘦'𝘳𝘦 𝘨𝘰𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘰 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘪𝘧 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘤𝘢𝘯 𝘳𝘶𝘯 𝘢 𝘮𝘪𝘭𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘢 𝘩𝘢𝘭𝘧

because the Belmont had to be first it couldn't work out that way and asking them to run that far so soon is too much to ask of them
that, I believe, was the thinking - if that wasn't the reason then I don't know what other reason it could be

its important to realize this - a horse does not radically change his style for a long race compared to a short race as a man does
if you did a calculation of MPH on a man he runs nowhere near as fast at a mile as he does at 100 meters

a thoroughbred does "rate" or slow down for the longer races - but only a little bit - not really by much - he's running almost as fast as he can the whole race

it's a very stressful race for a 3 year old and even older horses are rarely asked to run this distance in the U.S. - the classic distance is one mile and one quarter

they do run much further in Europe on the grass and it's a much different style of racing then U.S. dirt races

https://www.drf.com/news/belmont-stakes-shortened-will-be-run-june-20-40-stakes-meet-begins-june-3

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billryan

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May 22nd, 2020 at 9:56:49 AM permalink

Isn't the Derby longer than any race the horses had previously run? If so, jumping them to a mile and a half would be dangerous.

The Belmont is run at a mile and a half and normally has a very small field. Run at a shorter distance and with a large field changes everything and is asterisk worthy.

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billryan

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May 22nd, 2020 at 9:59:27 AM permalink

Isn't the Derby longer than any race the horses had previously run? If so, jumping them to a mile and a half would be dangerous.

The Belmont is run at a mile and a half and normally has a very small field. Run at a shorter distance and with a large field changes everything and is asterisk worthy.

The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened

lilredrooster

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May 22nd, 2020 at 10:22:49 AM permalink

Quote: billryan
Isn't the Derby longer than any race the horses had previously run?

yes. until the Derby no 3 year old has run any distance longer than one mile and one eighth - the Derby is one mile and one quarter - one fulong longer

that's the idea of it - progressively more difficult races - although the Preakness is slightly shorter than the Derby the turns are very tight at Pimlico, and requires more skill from a jock, and more ability from a horse to handle them well

.

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billryan

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May 22nd, 2020 at 11:43:43 AM permalink

Are any of the horses going to get in a race before the Belmont?

The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened

lilredrooster

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May 22nd, 2020 at 12:05:07 PM permalink

Quote: billryan
Are any of the horses going to get in a race before the Belmont?

yes. there are a couple of races they may get into

the Santa Anita Derby on June 6 is a big one
usually trainers would not want their horses to run in a race when a Triple Crown race is only 2 weeks away
but things are so screwed up this year - I think they probably will - the Santa Anita Derby, while not the Kentucky Derby, is a very big and important race

the casual fans focus only on the TC races and the Breeders Cup
but to the racing community there are a great many races throughout the year that are very important to them

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billryan

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May 22nd, 2020 at 12:42:40 PM permalink

I enjoy racing history but don't really follow current racing except for the TC.
How will they select which horses are allowed to run? Will the Derby requirements be used in the Belmont?

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lilredrooster

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May 22nd, 2020 at 1:42:51 PM permalink

Quote: billryan
I enjoy racing history but don't really follow current racing except for the TC.
How will they select which horses are allowed to run? Will the Derby requirements be used in the Belmont?

for the Derby it's a complicated point system based on performance in key races - see link

I don't know if they'll use the same system for the Belmont this year - again, everything is so screwed up this year - so many key races were cancelled
I couldn't find out from googling
I would guess that NY racing officials will invite many horses to enter - several racing experts such as the Daily Racing Form rank the 3 year olds - it wouldn't be hard for them to choose the top 6 or 7 - although there definitely could be some disputes when it comes to some of the weaker ones who would like to get in

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Road_to_the_Kentucky_Derby

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lilredrooster

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May 27th, 2020 at 3:08:08 AM permalink

Baffert has just been caught again
his undefeated horse Charlatan and one other from his stable tested positive for Lidocaine

"Lidocaine can be used legitimately for suturing wounds or as a diagnostic tool to determine whether horses are sound enough to compete. It is regulated because of its potential to mask lameness in an unsound horse."

Charlatan is or was considered a top contender for the Belmont Stakes

Baffert, racing's golden boy, has IMO long been afforded special treatment by racing officials
I wonder if he will again skate

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/26/sports/horse-racing/charlatan-bob-baffert-doping.html

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Keeneone

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June 10th, 2020 at 2:09:23 PM permalink

The Belmont Stakes is just 10 days away. This strange Triple Crown year just keeps getting weirder. So many changes to discuss, but I will just stay focused on the first leg of the 2020 Triple Crown season.

The Belmont Stakes is now a "qualifying" points race for the Kentucky Derby (Belmont Park 150�60�30�15 June 20, 2020). Running first, second, and maybe even third place will earn enough points to make the Top 20 to get into the Kentucky Derby. So it is a very important event for 3 year olds and could have a large field. The field still isn't set yet, but Tiz the Law will be the heavy favorite. I think he is the best 3 year old at the moment anyway. He is a New York bred horse and his team would love to capture the Belmont and then run in the Travers Stakes @ Saratoga (if the Travers race date is changed/moved to an earlier date). After that he could then run in the Kentucky Derby. He is already @ Belmont and had a workout over the track on Monday (6/8). I am pulling for him and hope he is ready to go in Elmont, NY after an almost 3 month layoff. This year could actually set up to be a very unique and special Triple Crown season.

Johnzimbo

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June 10th, 2020 at 4:49:56 PM permalink

And the Travers is going to remain 1 1/4 mile...so it might be a 10 furlong prep for the 10 furlong derby

Keeneone