2020 Kentucky Derby And Triple Crown

Quote: bobbartop

Quote: Keeneone

The 146th Kentucky Derby will be rescheduled from May 2, 2020 to September 5, 2020

So essentially, they will be 4-year olds.

While they will be older (by ~4 months), their age will still be listed as 3 year olds. Current 3 year olds will all turn 4 years old on January 1, 2021.
It is a good point to think about. The extra time some of these horses get to rest, train, grow, and mature will definitely have an effect on the delayed Derby.

Kentucky Derby futures Pool #4 is now open:
https://www.kentuckyderby.com/wager/future-wager/derby-pool-4
Current odds:
https://www.tvg.com/racetracks/KDF/ky-derby-futures?race=4
Past performances of the horses (click on Maxfield's Ultimate pps):
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/Darley/GODOLPHIN/9999/summary.html

I would surprised if #24 "All other 3 year olds" is not solidly the favorite when the pool closes.
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Forgot to mention this earlier. Ete Indien had some injuries during the Florida Derby (got cuts on left hind leg, lost a shoe, and grabbed a heel).
https://www.horseracingnation.com/news/Ete_Indien_injured_in_Florida_Derby_Biancone_battles_troll_123
Plenty of time for him to heal for the fall Derby.

Keene... you would probably know.... 3 year olds that race in the Derby are not still fully mature, correct? They still get a little faster as they get older? If so, will this Derby be the fastest ever?

Quote: SOOPOO

Keene... you would probably know.... 3 year olds that race in the Derby are not still fully mature, correct? They still get a little faster as they get older? If so, will this Derby be the fastest ever?

Interesting question. The horses that do run in this years Derby will definitely be older. But it does not mean they all will be more mature, more experienced, or faster runners.
I think the conditions of the track and makeup of the runners in the race have a bigger effect on the final time of the race. Fast vs wet track and number of sprinter/speedy "types" of runners that make the race. The current Derby pool does list quite a few speedy runners (Baffert's trainees are good examples) that could easily set up a lively pace scenario for the race resulting in a "fast" Derby time. But it is very difficult to predict which runners will be in the race at this time.

for 2 year olds and 3 year olds it is a great unknown as to who will improve and sometimes improve dramatically in the very next race
nobody knows the answer to this and it will just about always fatten the payouts on those who have up to this point 𝐧𝐨𝐭 shown great promise

Derby Future Pool #4 closed yesterday. “All Other 3-Year-Olds” closed as the 3-1 favorite. Handle was down quite a lot.

2019 KD Futures Pool #4:
Pool Total: $344,418.25
Exacta Pool Total: $155,988.50
Total: $500,406.75
https://www.twinspires.com/kentuckyderby/future-wager-pool

2020 KD Futures Pool #4:
Pool Total: $144,349
Exacta Pool Total: $69,315
Total: $213,664
https://www.kentuckyderby.com/horses/news/all-others-3-1-favorite-charlatan-and-tiz-the-law-co-5-1-second-choices-in-kentucky-derby-future-wager
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This pool probably should not have been opened due to the limited access to wagering (many/most tracks and casinos closed) and the lack of clarity about future prep races/qualification for the Derby.
I still believe CDI should refund/cancel all the Kentucky Derby Futures pools and start over when all the details are known. Of course there still is a chance the race does not run this year and all this discussion will be moot.

Oaklawn (in Hot Springs AR) will be running the Oaklawn Stakes today @ ~6:48est (Race #11). It is a replacement for the Arkansas Derby that will now be run on the first Saturday in May. While there are no Derby qualifying points, the race contains many potential Derby prospects. If I was forced to make a pick for this race, I would go #12 - Farmington Road and then #1 - Basin.

https://www.tvg.com/racetracks/OP/oaklawn-park?race=11
Past Performances:
https://tinyurl.com/sd3otja

Big upset in the Oaklawn Stakes. Mr. Big News won @ 45/1. Wow!
http://www.equibase.com/premium/chartEmb.cfm?track=OP&raceDate=04/11/2020&cy=USA&rn=11

(Shoutout to DD if you are reading) Mr. Big News' AWD's were off the chart on the Ultimate pps (Sire Stats: AWD 8.1 Dam's Sire: AWD 10.4). I kind of wrote him off as a Turfer that would not care for an off track.

on May 2 NBC will be hosting a 𝘷𝘪𝘳𝘵𝘶𝘢𝘭 Kentucky Derby

its not actually a betting event - I think people can make free picks and if they win they're entered into a drawing to win an invitation and special VIP treatment at the real Derby in September- that's the way I read it - but I'm not 100% sure

it appears to be something that a person could actually handicap - although that would certainly be very difficult to do
the virtual race will feature the 13 past Triple Crown winners running against each other using data algorithms with historical handicapping info about each horse

from the article:

"Fans can tune in to a special broadcast on NBC on May 2, from 3 to 6 p.m. EDT, which will feature the 2015 Kentucky Derby that began the legendary American Pharoah’s historic Triple Crown run (full NBC Sports show details to be announced next week). In addition, the NBC broadcast will highlight Churchill Downs’ first ever virtual horse race—The Kentucky Derby: Triple Crown Showdown, a computer-simulated version of a race under the historic Twin Spires of Churchill Downs. The virtual race, created by Inspired Entertainment, will feature the 13 past Triple Crown winners and use data algorithms including historical handicapping information about each horse, which helps to determine the probability of their potential finishing positions.
Beginning on April 30, fans will be able to visit www.KentuckyDerby.com to choose their favorite horse to win the virtual race and also join Churchill Downs in making a charitable donation to COVID-19 emergency relief efforts. All participants who select the winning horse will be entered to win the ultimate Kentucky Derby 146 VIP Experience. Churchill Downs has pledged to match up to $1 million of donations with funds to be directed to the Team Kentucky Fund and Direct Relief. A small percentage will be earmarked for the R.E.I.N. Fund (Relief for Equine Industry Needs), a program managed by Churchill Downs Foundation designed to benefit workers of the backside whose livelihood has been impacted"



looks like a fun thing to watch - especially considering that's all we have



https://www.kentuckyderby.com/horses/news/triple-crown-winners-to-race-in-virtual-kentucky-derby-for-charity-on-the-first-saturday-in-may-on-nbc

Quote: lilredrooster

"Fans can tune in to a special broadcast on NBC on May 2, from 3 to 6 p.m. EDT, which will feature the 2015 Kentucky Derby that began the legendary American Pharoah’s historic Triple Crown run (full NBC Sports show details to be announced next week). In addition, the NBC broadcast will highlight Churchill Downs’ first ever virtual horse race—The Kentucky Derby: Triple Crown Showdown, a computer-simulated version of a race under the historic Twin Spires of Churchill Downs. The virtual race, created by Inspired Entertainment, will feature the 13 past Triple Crown winners and use data algorithms including historical handicapping information about each horse, which helps to determine the probability of their potential finishing positions.

At first, I thought it said the past 13 Kentucky Derby winners (2007-2019), and wondered why they would stop there, before remembering that 2006 was Barbero.

But if it's the 13 Triple Crown winners, unless they box him in early or force him wide twice, I don't see how Secretariat doesn't run away with this.