No Jackpot Winner Powerball Prop Bet

Odds changes and other:

Mega Millions/MM No Jackpot Winner went -1450 >>> -1375
Powerball/PB No Jackpot Winner went -1250 >>> -1200

If you haven't bet yet and want to bet now, then the current "bet amounts" (at about 1/3 Kelly) would be:

MM : 19.7% of "bank roll" and
PB : 16.7% of "bank roll".


Also, for the current MM and PB draws at least, it won't let me do a "parlay" or "if bet", this means that I could be betting more*** than 1/3 Kelly

***: For the next two draws, going by the chance figure in my previous post for the MM, I will be "over-betting" my PB bet ~2.8% of the time, and if/when that occurs it will have meant that I effectively bet 1/2.43 Kelly ^^^

^^^: Personally, I am comfortable to bet anything up to "2/3 Kelly" (for the "low to medium" jackpots) so this is acceptable to me.

For the Mega Millions draw on the 04/07/20, I put down 5,162 to win 356, .

Opening Bal: 27,107
Finishing Bal: 27,463
P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: 1,463
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 97.39...%
Odds Taken: -1450
Actual EV: +4.11...%
Tickets Sold***: 7,988,699

*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm

I have money again!

623444460-1 4/8/20 9:38am $650.00 $50.00 Pending 4/10/20 10:30pm Lotto Other Sports 2 No Jackpot Winner 04/10/2020 -1300* vs Mega Millions Jackpot Winner 04/10/2020 (adv. = 6.57%)
623444290-1 4/8/20 9:35am $600.00 $50.00 Pending 4/8/20 10:30pm Lotto Other Sports 52 No Jackpot Winner 04/08/2020 -1200* vs Powerball Jackpot Winner 04/08/2020 (adv. = 4.66%)

K, I'm sure you've commented on this, but how have ticket sales been compared to my calculator's expectations during the lock-down?

Quote: Wizard

I have money again!

623444460-1 4/8/20 9:38am $650.00 $50.00 Pending 4/10/20 10:30pm Lotto Other Sports 2 No Jackpot Winner 04/10/2020 -1300* vs Mega Millions Jackpot Winner 04/10/2020 (adv. = 6.57%)
623444290-1 4/8/20 9:35am $600.00 $50.00 Pending 4/8/20 10:30pm Lotto Other Sports 52 No Jackpot Winner 04/08/2020 -1200* vs Powerball Jackpot Winner 04/08/2020 (adv. = 4.66%)

K, I'm sure you've commented on this, but how have ticket sales been compared to my calculator's expectations during the lock-down?

When the lock-down was only happening in a few states it dropped about 1/5, but for the last two draws it has dropped about 1/3, when compared to your calc.

Note: As far as I know, about 95% of the US is under shelter-in-place.
Note 2: I am guessing the next 10+ draws will sell less than 9.5 million tickets per draw for MM, and less than 13.5 million tickets per draw for PB, this assumes that the US is still in lock-down for those draws.
Note 3: I don't know what the tickets sales will be when the jackpot resets to $20 million.

Also, how did you get "adv. = 6.57%" for your Mega Millions bet above?
Unless you know something I don't (very possible) I think it is most likely a "typo" (eg did you mean to write 3.57% ?)

In case you didn't notice, 5d have a COB-19 bonus, that is very easy to beat with a 5 x rollover, and as far as I know it can be used for anything on the site.
If you saw*** it, I am guessing you asked to have it applied, since it is basically "free money" that is worth up to $190 .

*** if you didn't see it here is the link >>>> https://www.5dimes.eu/CoronaBonus.html ( you need to get it applied manually, and you must make the request within 24 hours of the relevant deposit).

---
New Lotto betting props:

Lastly, I saw some new prop bets, but even the "best one" has a house edge, see below:

Golden Mega Ball last digit is odd -110 , has a house edge of 2/275 (see proof below)

Proof:

There are 25 Mega Balls, for 13 balls the last digit is odd, and for 12 balls the last digit is even.

chance for "last digit is odd" = 13/25 = 52%
chance for "last digit is even" = 12/25 = 48%

"last digit is odd " EV = (52% /1.1) - 48% = -0.7272...% = -2/275

therefore, the house edge is 2/275

Note: I noticed these new props about 13 hours ago, and the odds on offer are still the same.

Quote: ksdjdj

Also, how did you get "adv. = 6.57%" for your Mega Millions bet above?
Unless you know something I don't (very possible) I think it is most likely a "typo" (eg did you mean to write 3.57% ?)

Good catch. Actually, I'm showing 4.66%, based on ticket sales of 12.63 million.

Thank you for the information about less than normal sales. I'll up my bets based on that.

I'll reply on that bonus separately.

About the bonus, I was still within the 24 hours to ask for it. However support said:

Quote: support

Thank you for holding, at this time you don't qualify for any bonuses since you have to re deposit payouts the total would be $3,113.32

I'm not exactly sure what he meant, but I guess it doesn't apply to net winners or people who have recent withdrawals.

Quote: Wizard

About the bonus, I was still within the 24 hours to ask for it. However support said:

" Quote: support
Thank you for holding, at this time you don't qualify for any bonuses since you have to re deposit payouts the total would be $3,113.32 "


I'm not exactly sure what he meant, but I guess it doesn't apply to net winners or people who have recent withdrawals.

Sorry that they didn't apply it.

IMO, here are the most relevant parts for this bonus and bonuses in general.

COB-19 Specific:
"Without prior approval, only accounts with available balance + pending balance below $250, will qualify for an existing customer bonus. "


General Rules.
https://www.5dimes.eu/rules.html (it is about 80% down the page)

"Bonus programs, casino and bingo rewards, horseracing rewards, the Betting Contest and any other seasonal or temporary promotions, are intended for recreational bettors only. Professional players, winning players or players considered, in our sole discretion, to be abusing the bonus system by any means, may have all bonuses revoked...."


I guess I am "lucky" that I had a bad run going into my last deposit, since I managed to get the bonus.

This illustrates why I don't like bonuses in general, although I must admit online gambling has put rice on my table for 20 years now. I still think my Casino 99 concept would be huge if I could ever get that going.

Bad news, the Powerball was hit.
Still a good bet and all of that, but it probably doesn't feel good when you lose your first game back (I know I don't feel too good after that one).

FYI: for "small ticket sales" draws, if the result isn't up within 2 and 1/4 hours, then it is likely that it was hit (doesn't happen 100% of the time, but it is still a good indicator).

---
For the Powerball draw on the 04/08/20, I put down 4,375 and lost .

Opening Bal: 27,463
Finishing Bal: 23,088
P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: (2,912)
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 96.33...%
Odds Taken: -1250
Actual EV: +4.04...%
Tickets Sold***: 10,906,522

*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm

Quote: Wizard

This illustrates why I don't like bonuses in general, although I must admit online gambling has put rice on my table for 20 years now. I still think my Casino 99 concept would be huge if I could ever get that going.

What happened there? Matter of investors only?

Quote: ksdjdj

Bad news, the Powerball was hit.Still a good bet and all of that, but it probably doesn't feel good when you lose your first game back (I know I don't feel too good after that one).

Oy! I'd like to think I'm pretty cool about the ups and downs of gambling, but my first time back, with a 94.1% chance of winning, and I lose. That just does not feel good. For all the time I've put into this, I am down.

Game: Mega Millions
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 04/10/2020"
Odds: -1300
Estimated Chance ***: 97.13...%
Estimated EV: 4.60...%
Bet Amount: 20% (about 1/3 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: now

***: I estimate 8.8 million tickets will be sold and I think the most likely range will be between 8 and 8.8 million tickets.

Quote: Wizard

Oy! I'd like to think I'm pretty cool about the ups and downs of gambling, but my first time back, with a 94.1% chance of winning, and I lose. That just does not feel good. For all the time I've put into this, I am down.

Lucky the MM jackpot was not hit.
I didn't want to write this until after the results of the MM draw, but the chance of the jackpot being hit on all of the last 4 bets that you made would have been about 1/(26.2^4) or about 1/470,000 .

----
Result summary:

For the Mega Millions draw on the 04/10/2020, I put down 4,615 to win 355.

Opening Bal: 23,088
Finishing Bal: 23,443
P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: (2,557)
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 97.09...%
Odds Taken: -1300
Actual EV: +4.56...%
Tickets Sold***: 8,930,417

*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm

----
Other:

PB is -4000 for no jackpot winner

note: according to the link below, the jackpot has a 3.2% chance of being hit (so about 0.78% house edge at those odds)

https://www.txlottery.org/export/sites/lottery/Documents/jackpotestimates/pb20200411.pdf

note 2: It is unknown how accurate the sales estimates will be, as this is the first time the advertised PB Jackpot has been $20 million, at least since I have been betting on the PB results .

MM is -2000 for no jackpot winner, at these odds this is still a good estimated +EV bet (probably a bit more than 2% EV) , but I will wait and see if the odds change closer to the draw, before I have my bet.

note: This "odds correction" for the lotto props has happened before the "lock-down", so I don't know if it because of that, or just their normal "odds correction" that they seem to do on occasion.

----
Update (about 655 pm)

FYI: The "important notice" on the PB site has been updated, on April 2, 2020 (see link below)

https://www.powerball.com/notice


Here is a link to the MM notice/news, but I don't think it has changed since I last posted about it in this thread

https://www.megamillions.com/News/2020/Mega-Millions-to-Adjust-Starting-Jackpot-Amount,-E.aspx

Game: Mega Millions
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 04/14/2020"
Odds: -1375
Estimated Chance ***: 97.26...%
Estimated EV: 4.33...%
Bet Amount: 19.9% (about 1/3 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: now

***: I estimate 8.4 million tickets will be sold and I think the most likely range will be between 7.6 and 8.4 million tickets.

----
Odds:

MM opened at -2000 and went to -1375 for the no jackpot winner

PB opened at -3500 and hasn't moved for the no jackpot winner (currently "neutral### estimated EV").

###: By this it means I expect the EV to be somewhere between -0.5% to +0.5%, at these odds.

There is a prop bet under " Mega Millions Jackpot Propositions - 04/14/2020 - Tuesday, April 14, 2020 10:30 PM " which says:

"23 Golden Mega Ball last digit is 0 +1350"

After confirming there are 2 balls out of 25 that end with a "last digit of 0", i made the following bet (see summary below):
----
Bet Summary:

Game: Mega Millions
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "23 Golden Mega Ball last digit is 0"
Odds: +1350
"Actual Chance": 2/25 ( 8% )
EV : +16%
Bet Amount: 0.6% (about 1/2 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: now

Note: I think doing "about 1/2 Kelly" for this is acceptable instead of my usual "1/3 Kelly", because the "expected/estimated chance" and the "actual chance" should be the same (assuming there is no bias with the "mega balls")

Note 2: I don't know whether to count the result of this type of bet as part of my "normal lotto bets result summary" or not (mainly because I think this opportunity will be fairly infrequent) (see update)

----
Update (730 pm)

I had a think about it, and decided to change my results summary page to look like the example below:

Eg
"Insert Lottery Name and date" Result summary:

Opening Bal:
Finishing Bal:
Combined profit/ (loss) to date:


Main Bets profit/ (loss) to date:

Did my bet win (yes or no?):
Bet Amount ($):
Win or loss ($):
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold):
Odds Taken:
Actual EV:
Tickets Sold***:

*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm

Other Bets profit/ (loss) to date:

Did my bet win (yes or no?):
Bet Amount ($):
Win or loss ($):
Chance of bet(s) Winning:
Odds Taken:
Actual EV:

Mega Millions 04/14/2020 - Result summary:

Opening Bal: 23,443
Finishing Bal: 23,642
Combined profit/ (loss) to date: (2,358)

Main Bets profit/ (loss) to date: (2,218)

Did my bet win (yes or no?): yes
Bet Amount ($): 4,661.25
Won ($): 339
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 96.95...%
Odds Taken: -1375
Actual EV: 4.00...%
Tickets Sold***: 9,367,155

*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm

Other Bets profit/ (loss) to date: (140)

Did my bet win (yes or no?): no
Bet Amount ($): 140 ^^^
lost($): 140
Chance of bet Winning: 8%
Odds Taken: +1350
Actual EV: 16%

^^^: I used $30 from my main bet with this bet, to make an "If Bet", as I have explained "if bets" before I won't be writing much about it here ( except to say they are similar to an Accumulator or All-up bet).

Game: Mega Millions
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 04/17/2020"
Odds: -1300
Estimated Chance ***: 96.71...%
Estimated EV: 4.15...%
Bet Amount: 18% (about 1/3 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: now

***: I estimate 10.1 million tickets will be sold and I think the most likely range will be between 8.9 and 10.1 million tickets.

Mega Millions 04/17/20 - Result summary:

Opening Bal: 23,642
Finishing Bal: 23,970
Combined profit/ (loss) to date: (2,030)
Other Bets profit/ (loss) to date: (140)

Main Bets profit/ (loss) to date: (1,890)

Did my bet win (yes or no?): yes
Bet Amount ($): 4,264
Won ($): 328
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 96.54...%
Odds Taken: -1300
Actual EV: 3.96...%
Tickets Sold***: 10,644,850

*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm

Game: Mega Millions
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 04/21/2020"
Odds: -1300
Estimated Chance ***: 96.42...%
Estimated EV: 3.84...%
Bet Amount: 16.7% (about 1/3 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: now

***: I estimate 11 million tickets will be sold and I think the most likely range will be between 9.5 and 11.5 million tickets.

Mega Millions 04/21/20 - Result summary:

Opening Bal: 23,970
Finishing Bal: 24,277
Combined profit/ (loss) to date: (1,723)
Other Bets profit/ (loss) to date: (140)

Main Bets profit/ (loss) to date: (1,583)

Did my bet win (yes or no?): yes
Bet Amount ($): 3,991
Won ($): 307
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 96.51...%
Odds Taken: -1300
Actual EV: 3.93...%
Tickets Sold***: 10,742,363

*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm

Odds:

Mega Millions: Went from -3500 to -2300

Powerball: Opened -5000 and hasn't moved

Note: I am not too worried because every so often the bookie does an "odds shift" like this (I have written about this before in other posts).

----
Other:

In case the odds get favorable for us in the next 20 minutes or so, here are my estimates for the Mega Millions

I estimate 12*** million tickets will be sold and I think the most likely range will be between 10.5 and 12.5 million tickets.

***: in other words a 96.11...% estimated chance of "no winner"

No bets for MM, and likely no bets for PB tomorrow.

I will only update this thread if I am having a bet now or when replying to someone else's post.

Game: Mega Millions
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 05/05/2020"
Odds: -1600
Estimated Chance ***: 95.39...%
Estimated EV: 1.36...%
Bet Amount: 7.2% (about 1/3 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: now

***: I estimate 14.25 million tickets will be sold and I think the most likely range will be between 13 and 14.75 million tickets.

Mega Millions 05/05/20 - Result summary:

Opening Bal: 24,277
Finishing Bal: 24,387
Combined profit/ (loss) to date: (1,613)
Other Bets profit/ (loss) to date: (140)
Main Bets profit/ (loss) to date: (1,473)

Did my bet win (yes or no?): yes
Bet Amount ($): 1,760
Won ($): 110
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 95.47...%
Odds Taken: -1600
Actual EV: 1.43...%
Tickets Sold***: 14,020,010

*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm

Game: Mega Millions
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 05/08/2020"
Odds: -1600
Estimated Chance ***: 94.84...%
Estimated EV: 0.77...%
Bet Amount: 4.1% (about 1/3 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: now

***: I estimate 16 million tickets will be sold and I think the most likely range will be between 14.5 and 16.5 million tickets.

Mega Millions 05/08/20 - Result summary:

Opening Bal: 24,387
Finishing Bal: 24,450
Combined profit/ (loss) to date: (1,550)
Other Bets profit/ (loss) to date: (140)
Main Bets profit/ (loss) to date: (1,410)

Did my bet win (yes or no?): yes
Bet Amount ($): 1,008
Won ($): 63
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 95.24...%
Odds Taken: -1600
Actual EV: 1.20...%
Tickets Sold***: 14,726,998

*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm

Betting Summaries:

Main Bet:

Game: Mega Millions
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 05/12/2020"
Odds: -1300
Estimated Chance ***: 94.78...%
Estimated EV: 2.07...%
Bet Amount: 9.0% (about 1/3 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: now

***: I estimate 16.2 million tickets will be sold and I think the most likely range will be between 14 and 17 million tickets.


Other Bet:

Game: Mega Millions
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "3 Golden Mega Ball last digit is odd"
Odds: -105
Chance: 13/25
EV: 1.52...%
Bet Amount: 0.80% (about 1/2 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: now

----
Other Info:

Odds for MM "no winner" went: -1450 to -1300
Odds for MM "last ball is odd/even" went: -110/-110 to -105/-105

Max bet for "other bet" is "to win $500" per bet.
The max bet for "main bet" is still "win $1000 or $1000 down" per bet.

Mega Millions 05/12/2020 - Result summary:

Opening Bal: 24,450
Finishing Bal: 24,806
Combined profit/ (loss) to date: (1,194)

Main Bets profit/ (loss) to date: (1,240)

Did my bet win (yes or no?): yes
Bet Amount ($): 2,210
Won ($): 170
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 95.03...%
Odds Taken: -1300
Actual EV: 2.34...%
Tickets Sold***: 15,413,567

*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm

Other Bets profit/ (loss) to date: 46

Did my bet win (yes or no?): yes, as the " Golden Mega Ball " was 5
Bet Amount ($): 195.3 ^^^
Won($): 186
Chance of bet Winning: 52%
Odds Taken: -105
Actual EV: 1.52...%

^^^: I used $17.43 from my main bet with this bet, to make an "If Bet", as I have explained "if bets" before I won't be writing much about it here ( except to say they are similar to an Accumulator or All-up bet).

Betting Summaries:

Main Bet:

Game: Powerball
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 05/13/20"
Odds: -2150
Estimated Chance ***: 96.80...%
Estimated EV: 1.30...%
Bet Amount: 9.3% (about 1/3 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: now

*** (Early Estimate): I estimate 9.5 million tickets will be sold and I think the most likely range will be between 8.5 and 10 million tickets.

Note: I may post a "late estimate" tomorrow.

Other Bet:

Game: Powerball
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "65 Powerball number last digit is 6"
Odds: +790
Chance: 3/26
EV: 2.69...%
Bet Amount: 0.17% (about 1/2 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: now

Main Bet: My ticket estimate hasn't changed and neither have the odds for the "no jackpot winner" (still -2150).

Other Bet: Odds went from +790 to +665 for "65 Powerball number last digit is 6" (so there is no value now).

Note: I just did a test, and it seems the "max bet" for the "other bets" is $200 per bet.

Result summary (after the Powerball draw on the 05/13/20) :

Opening Bal: 24,806
Finishing Bal: 24,874
Combined profit/ (loss) to date: (1,126)

Main Bets profit/ (loss) to date: (1,132)

Did my bet win (yes or no?): yes
Bet Amount ($): 2,322
Won ($): 108
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 96.80...%
Odds Taken: -2150
Actual EV: 1.30...%
Tickets Sold***: 9,502,702

*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm

Other Bets profit/ (loss) to date: 6

Did my bet win (yes or no?): no
Bet / Amount Lost ($): 40
Chance that the "Powerball number last digit is 6": 3/26 (or 11.53...%)
Odds Taken: +790
Actual EV: 2.69...%

Game: Mega Millions
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 05/15/2020"
Odds: -1250
Estimated Chance ***: 94.53...%
Estimated EV: 2.09...%
Bet Amount: 8.7% (about 1/3 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: now

***: I estimate 17 million tickets will be sold and I think the most likely range will be between 15 and 18 million tickets.

Quote: ksdjdj

Chance that the "Powerball number last digit is 6": 3/26 (or 11.53...%)
Odds Taken: +790
Actual EV: 2.69...%

Have you noticed this as a one-time mistake from the book, or does the line sometimes change between numbers? (The +790 would make sense for 7 through 0, but not for 1 through 6.)

Stupid powerball hitting! 94%+ for you and Wiz (a few draws ago)... feels like the old 5% 2 outer on the river in poker. Somehow, it happens all the time =/.

Thanks for keeping the thread updated. Love seeing it tick back the positive direction!

Quote: kuma

Have you noticed this as a one-time mistake from the book, or does the line sometimes change between numbers? (The +790 would make sense for 7 through 0, but not for 1 through 6.)

I have noticed a mistake for 4 props so far (this includes the "real world" example, that starts about half-way down this post).
I think they are usually*** just a bit careless when they do the "jackpot propositions", I think they sometimes "forget" that PB has 26 "Red Powerballs" and MM has 25 "Golden Mega Balls"

***: see first half of the link here >>>> https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/31799-no-jackpot-winner-powerball-prop-bet/37/#post764836 <<<< for the only time I have noticed so far that they have made a "major error" for these types of bets (i don't know why they did this).

Important Note: Even though they haven't so far, If they ever "reversed the line", I would probably either have a very small bet or no bet, because in their rules it states something like "...if we put up a reversed line then we can void the bet whenever we want to..." (paraphrased).

A hypothetical example of a "reversed line" would be if they put up: +790 for the "Powerball number last digit is NOT 6"


"Real world" example: For the Mega "Millions Jackpot Propositions - 05/19/2020" they have this minor "line error" (see below)

3 Golden Mega Ball last digit is odd -105
4 Golden Mega Ball last digit is even -105

There are 13 odd and 12 even numbers, since there are 25 "Mega balls" in total from 1-25 (inclusive).

So, there is a 13/25 chance of an odd number and the EV is +1.52...% (at the above odds of -105).

Note: For the previous Mega Millions draw, they put up -110 for odd and +100 for even, but for the draw on the 05/12/2020 they put up -105/-105.

Note 2: I just had $210 on the "3 Golden Mega Ball last digit is odd", also that is the max I can have per bet on these props (I will write a "proper bet summary within the next hour or two).

Note 3: if you had a big enough "bank roll" you could keep betting "to win $200" every 5-15 minutes, if they didn't change the odds (usually they alter the odds fairly quick, but sometimes they leave the odds up so you can have another bet once the "betting freeze" on your account has been lifted, after 5-15 minutes)

Result summary (after the Mega Millions draw on the 05/15/20) :

Opening Bal: 24,874
Finishing Bal: 25,048
Combined profit/ (loss) to date: (952)
Other Bets profit/ (loss) to date: 6
Main Bets profit/ (loss) to date: (958)

Did my bet win (yes or no?): yes
Bet Amount ($): 2,175
Won ($): 174
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 94.82...%
Odds Taken: -1250
Actual EV: 2.40...%
Tickets Sold***: 16,089,006

*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm

Bet summaries:

Main Bet:

Game: Powerball
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: " No Jackpot Winner 05/16/2020"
Odds: -1900
Estimated Chance ***: 96.30...%
Estimated EV: 1.37...%
Bet Amount: 8.7% (about 1/3 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: now

***: I estimate 11 million tickets will be sold and I think the most likely range will be between 10.3 and 11.3 million tickets.


Other Bet (under "Mega Millions Jackpot Propositions - 05/19/2020..." ):

Game: Mega Millions
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "3 Golden Mega Ball last digit is odd"
Odds: -105
Chance: 13/25
EV: 1.52...%
"Bet Amount that I normally have": 0.80% (about 1/2 Kelly^^^)
Actual Bet Amount: $210^^^
When will I have a bet: now

^^^: I had $210 for this bet, so the bet is closer to "1/1.9 kelly" if the above Powerball bet wins and "about 1/1.74 kelly" if the above Powerball bet loses (as long as you bet less or equal to "full kelly", then you have NOT "over bet your bank roll").

Reminder: I won't mention this every time, but the reason I am betting "about 1/2 kelly" instead of "about 1/3 Kelly" for "other bets" , is because the estimated chance is the same as the actual chance (assuming the balls are "weighted fairly").

Result summary (after the Powerball draw on the 05/16/20) :

Opening Bal: 25,048
Finishing Bal: 25,163
Combined profit/ (loss) to date: (837)
Other Bets profit/ (loss) to date: 6
Main Bets profit/ (loss) to date: (843)

Did my bet win (yes or no?): yes
Bet Amount ($): 2,185
Won ($): 115
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 96.35...%
Odds Taken: -1900
Actual EV: 1.42...%
Tickets Sold***: 10,841,380

*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm

Here are my current "Max Bet" amounts for my "lotto bets" with 5d (I haven't had the need to max bet in a while, but I think it is worth posting them)

Main Market ("Jackpot Winner Market"): to win $2000 for favorites or $2000 down for " 'dog priced" bets (both checked)

Other Bets:
"...Ball last digit is odd/even": to win $200 for favorites (checked) or $200 down for " 'dog priced" bets (assumed but not checked).

"... Ball last digit is x/not x": $200 for favorites or $200 down for " 'dog priced" bets (both checked)

Other info:
They seem to alternate the max bet between $1000 and $2000 quite frequently for the Main market (at least over the last year or so).

With the other bets, I think the max bet was $500 originally and is currently at $200.

Note: these maximum amounts are on a per bet basis (as mentioned before you can usually "max bet" once per account every 5-15 minutes, or "straight away" if the odds have changed).

Note 2: Your accounts' betting limit may be different to mine, so if you can afford it and plan to bet big , then I recommend you check*** to see what your max bet is.

***: The steps to check what your max bet is, are below.

Quick/ "proper" way:

1. go to the 5dimes website and log in
2. click on lotto under other sports (in the "Straight & RIF" section)
3. type in a big bet, eg $5,000 or $10,000 on the " 'dog priced offer".
4. If the $5000 /$10,000 bet is "too big" an amount should come back that says something like - "Risking $2,000.00 To Win $16,000.00" ^^^

^^^: The above amount will be written in black if the bet is the same as you asked for and the above amount will be written in red if the bet has been reduced to the "max bet".

5 (IMPORTANT): make sure you press cancel, unless you can afford to and want to have this bet (since you are just doing this to test what the bet limits are).


Slower / "less accurate" but safer way:

a. same as above
b. go to a market that has big odds that is NOT in the lotto part of website (in the "If Bets' section)
c. type in $1.0 or $0.5 on the said selection.
d. select a different market
e. put "all the potential winnings" from step c. on the offer in step d.
f. repeat d and e, until your "potential winnings" is either $5,000 or $10,000 (amount can be higher, but is not necessary).
g. then go to the lotto market (you should still be in the "If Bets" section)
h. follow step 3 and 4 from the " Quick/ "proper" way: ", and you should get the same result as that way (most of the time###).

###: Sometimes it lets me have "to win $5,000" or "$5,000 down" as my "max bet", when I do it this way, but when I do it the "proper way" I can only get "$1000 or $2000 down"..., this is why I called this the "less accurate" way (I don't know why this happens though?).

i. remember to click cancel once you have determined your "max bet"

----
Post not checked thoroughly and I can find it hard to communicate well, so don't be afraid to ask me questions and I will try and answer them.

Main Bet:

Game: Mega Millions
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 05/19/2020"
Odds: -1500
Estimated Chance ***: 94.59...%
Estimated EV: 0.90...%
Bet Amount: 4.5% (about 1/3 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: now

***: I estimate 16.8 million tickets will be sold and I think the most likely range will be between 15 and 18 million tickets.

Other Bet:

I have already had my bet on the "3 Golden Mega Ball last digit is odd" @ -105 (see link below)
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/31799-no-jackpot-winner-powerball-prop-bet/39/#post769037

At the current odds of -110, it now has an EV of -2/275.


----
Odds:

For the "no jackpot winner", the Mega Millions opened at -1250 and went to -1500.

For the "3 Golden Mega Ball last digit is odd", it went -105 >>> -110 (it stayed at -105 until at least 13 hours ago, which was the last time I checked it).

PB opened at -4000 for the "no jackpot winner" (so they have done another "odds shift")

Result summary (after the Mega Millions draw on the 05/19/20) :

Opening Bal: 25,163
Finishing Bal: 25,438
Combined profit/ (loss) to date: (562)

Main Bets profit/ (loss) to date: (768)

Did my bet win (yes or no?): yes
Bet Amount ($): 1,125
Won ($): 75
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 94.66...%
Odds Taken: -1500
Actual EV: 0.97...%
Tickets Sold***: 16,580,179

*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm

Other Bets profit/ (loss) to date: 206

Did my bet win (yes or no?): yes
Bet ($): 210
Won ($): 200
Chance that the " Golden Mega Ball last digit is odd": 13/25 (or 52%)
Odds Taken: -105
Actual EV: 1.52...%

I have been told that there is at least one other online sportsbook that does the "jackpot winner yes/no" market.

The odds at that book are currently -1100 for the "no jackpot winner" for the Mega Millions draw on the 05/22/2020.

If I was betting, I would estimate 18 million tickets with a likely estimated range of 16 to 19 million tickets.

Current Odds (at time of this post): -1100
Estimated Chance: 94.22...%
Estimated EV: 2.79%

If I could get the bet on then I would bet ( I can't bet due to "geo-lock", at the moment):

about 10.2% of my "bank roll" (about 1/3 Kelly)

Note: Since I could not personally get my bet on, this will NOT be counted in my "Results summary page"

Note 2: At least for the person who told me about this, the betting limits are not as good at this site when compared to 5dimes.


PM me if you would like the name of the sportsbook and want to bet on it with them.


Update: I decided to post about the other sportsbook in this thread (see my next post below for more details).

Quote: ksdjdj

I have been told that there is at least one other online sportsbook that does the "jackpot winner yes/no" market.
PM me if you would like the name of the sportsbook and want to bet on it with them.

I love this thread. Since you have already named one sportsbook that accepts these bets, I see no reason you should not mention a second. I'm asking you to do more work, but why not mention both with their respective odds in this thread?

Quote: SOOPOO

I love this thread. Since you have already named one sportsbook that accepts these bets, I see no reason you should not mention a second. I'm asking you to do more work, but why not mention both with their respective odds in this thread?

Ok, here it is >>> https://www.betonline.ag/

Betting limits for lotto bets may vary***, as i can't find the limits for it on this page
>>> https://www.betonline.ag/sportsbook/wagering/limits <<< because of this, I can't tell you what the "usual" betting limits for the "lotto bets" are, as I only have one reference so far (see: "Also note" below for his betting limits).

***: "NOTE: To increase wagering limits for individual accounts, please contact Player Services at 1-800-977-4717. Limits for sports and individual players are subject to change at BetOnline management's discretion.

Important New Feature: Once a specific limit has been reached, it can re-bet every time the odds move and/or every 61 seconds.... "

Also note: The person that told me about BetOnline having these markets is limited to win $25-$50 for these types of lotto wagers (your betting limits may vary)

----
I will probably mention the odds available from betonline in my "Other" or "Odds" section of my posts from now on (maybe with some "estimated EV" figures and "what I would bet (if i personally could bet there)" figures, as well)

----
Update (about 840 pm)

here is the link for their current lotto odds >>> https://www.betonline.ag/sportsbook/futures-and-props/lottery


----
Update 2 (about 855 pm)

Here are the restricted jurisdictions (for those that don't know or remember, I live in Australia):

" BetOnline currently restricts play from the following jurisdictions:

Afghanistan
Australia
Central African Republic
Congo
Cote Divoire
Cuba
Democratic Republic of Congo
Eritrea
France
French Guiana
French Polynesia
French Souther Territories
Guinea
Guinea-Bissau
Iran
Iraq
Lebanon
Liberia
Libyan Arab Jamahiriya
Mali
Malta
Myanmar (Burma)
North Korea (Republic of)
Panama
Sierra Leone
Slovenia
Somalia
Sudan
Syrian Arab Republic
Yemen
Zimbabwe "

see rule 26 here >>> https://www.betonline.ag/rules <<< for the most up-to-date restricted countries list.

Quote: ksdjdj

Ok, here it is >>> https://www.betonline.ag/

Betting limits for lotto bets may vary***,

Important New Feature: Once a specific limit has been reached, it can re-bet every time the odds move and/or every 61 seconds.... "

Also note: The person that told me about BetOnline having these markets is limited to win $25-$50 for these types of lotto wagers (your betting limits may vary)

Super interesting! So betonline protects itself from a huge bet at a line that might be stale. And will adjust the line if appropriate. But sounds like you can keep repeatedly betting once a minute if the line is still +EV for you. I wonder if a couple of your $500 to win $25 bets will change the line to $500 to win $22?

Quote: ksdjdj

(snip)
I will probably mention the odds available from betonline in my "Other" or "Odds" section of my posts from now on (maybe with some "estimated EV" figures and "what I would bet (if i personally could bet there)" figures, as well)
(snip)

I have decided to spend the time to create a spreadsheet, so that anyone can work out the "EV's and "recommended bets" etc for the lotto bets.
The reason I have done this, is because I don't want to clog up my bet summary pages with "multiple recommended bet figures" and things like that (especially when I can't have the bet myself, due to "country restrictions").

Here is the link to my "public - one drive":

https://onedrive.live.com/?id=913E9944ACDF5E46%21116&cid=913E9944ACDF5E46

Other Important Info (below):

. Only works for the "no jackpot winner" side of the bet (don't use if you want to bet on the "yes..." side).
. The relevant files are: "lotto_bet_calc.ods" and "lotto_bet_calc.xlsx"
. The updated relevant files are: "ver2_lotto_bet_calc.ods" and "ver2_lotto_bet_calc.xlsx" (these spreadsheets are slightly easier to use than the first lot of files, because I have made it so that you can easily change the "Kelly reduction factor").
. Only type figures in cells: B5, A11, B11 and F11 (all other cells must be left alone)
. I recommend you save at least two copies of each of the files that you decide to download. One copy should be the "master copy" (leave that one as the backup) and the "other copy" should be one that you do all the "working out in" (that way if you accidentally change the formulas, you can easily make another copy from the "master (backup) copy".

. Even though all files were virus free when I uploaded them to one-drive, I recommend you do a virus scan after you download any files from the internet.

-----
Have to go out (so I will complete this post later)

Instructions to follow in next post.

Instructions on how to use "ver2_lotto_bet_calc..." files in my previous post.

. Download the file which has your preferred extension out of the two provided ( .ods or .xlsx )
. (Optional) Download a 2nd copy and change the name to something like "master_copy_lotto_bet_calc..." to keep as a backup file.
. Open the file that is NOT the "master_copy..." one.
. After opening the file, there should be "two sheets" in the bottom left corner that say "Mega Millions" and "Powerball", click on the relevant sheet (eg, if you want to bet on Mega Millions, then click on the "Mega Millions" sheet).
. In cell "B5", type in the estimated number of tickets you think will be sold in the draw you want to bet on (you can use the numbers I use in this thread, or you can work out your own estimates).
. In cell "A11", type in your "current bank", this should be an amount you can afford and are happy to set aside for gambling/betting on this product/market.
Important: DON'T borrow*** money for this, no matter how good the bet seems to be.

***: The main reason I strongly suggest this is because, most of these "offshore" online sportsbooks "play by their own rules" when it comes to disputes. In other words there is "almost no chance" of winning a dispute, if they decide you have broken any of the "rules on their site", even if you strongly believe you haven't broken any, they can still do things like "void your winning bet(s)" and "confiscate some or all of your funds".

. In cell "B11", type in the decimal odds on offer for the "no jackpot winner" in this cell.
Important: This spreadsheet only works with decimal odds (I may do a American odds one later, if there is enough demand for it).

. (Optional): In cell "F11", If you want to change the "Kelly Reduction Factor" from 3 to another number then you may do so.
. Important: Always make sure the number in this cell is at least equal to 1. I would personally recommend you set it to a number anywhere between 1.5 and 6 ( the "higher this number is the safer" ).

---
"No jackpot winner" betting recommendation(s), for if/when you decide to stop following my thread and bet on your own (using only a spreadsheet like the one I provided)

1. Even if you have an estimated +EV, don't bet on something until the EV is at least "1/10 x potential winnings as a %" (see examples below).

Example 1: if the odds are $1.10 (decimal odds), then generally I would want the estimated EV to be at least 1% before I had a bet

Example 2: If the odds are $2 (decimal odds), then generally I would want the estimated EV to be at least 10% before I had a bet.

2. Once you work out a "base-line, number of tickets" estimate, you should add "a little bit of a buffer to it" by increasing that estimate by 2% to 25%, depending on the size of the "base ticket estimate" (see examples below)

Example 1: If my estimated "base-line, number of tickets" for the next jackpot was 17.5 million, then I would probably use 18 or 19 million as the figure to use in the spread sheet.

Example 2: If my estimated "base-line, number of tickets" for the next jackpot was 200 million, then I would probably use 240 or 250 million as the figure to use in the spread sheet.

Remember: This "buffer" should only be used when betting on the "no jackpot winner" side of the market.

---
Note: Some of these instructions may seem redundant or obvious (the intent is so that anyone can work out how to use the spreadsheets correctly).

Hope you find these last couple of posts helpful.

Any questions, comments or corrections are welcome.

Current tiicket estimates, chance estimates, odds and estimated EV (at the book that currently has the best odds):

Mega Millons:
18 million tickets
94.22...% chance of "no jackpot winner"
-1450 @ 5dimes, and -1100 @ betonline
about 2.79% EV, at betonline's odds

Powerball:
11.3 million tickets (i normally do two estimates for the PB, so this is my "early one").
96.20...% chance of "no jackpot winner"
-3000 @ 5dimes, and -2500 @ betonline
about 0.05% EV, at betonline's odds

Suggestions:

If you have an account with betonline then back the Mega Millions "no jackpot winner" @ -1100.

I will personally "wait and see if the odds improve" and possibly bet tomorrow with 5dimes. But If you can only get on at 5dimes (like me), then use my spreadsheet to work out the EV and "recommended bet amount", if you want to bet now.

Don't bet on the Powerball at any of the current odds available, because the estimated EV is only "slightly positive" at the moment with betonline.

---
As far as I can see, all the "other" lotto props seem to have negative EV at this time, so that is why I haven't posted any other props.

Instead of this...

Quote: ksdjdj

(snip)
. (Optional): In cell "F11", If you want to change the "Kelly Reduction Factor" from 3 to another number then you may do so.
. Important: Always make sure the number in this cell is at least equal to 1. I would personally recommend you set it to a number anywhere between 1.5 and 6 ( the "higher this number is the safer" ).
(snip)

... someone suggested I change what it says in cell F10 to " % Kelly Bet ", so I have done that and changed F11 accordingly (see file "vers3_lotto_bet_cal...")

Important: For ver3..., below are the only different "instruction points" that I can see that need to be followed (all the other points should be the same as ver2...)

. (Optional): In cell "F11", If you want to change the " % Kelly Bet " from 33.33...% to another number then you may do so.
. Important: Always make sure the number in this cell is lower than 100%. I would personally recommend you set it to a number anywhere between 67% and 16% ( the "lower this number is the safer" ).

---
. Both "ver2..." and "ver3..." should be mathematically sound (so you can use whichever one you like).
. After talking with someone, I now plan to put up at least one "American odds" version, soon.

Again, all comments etc are welcome, but after I do the "American odds" version(s) , I don't plan on working on these spreadsheets any further (unless someone spots a "major mistake" )

Odds update(s):

Mega Millions "no jackpot winner"
betonline: opened @ -1100 and went to -1200
5dimes: opened @ -1450 and hasn't changed

Powerball:
No changes for either sports book.

---
American odds spreadsheets:

I have finished my "American..." spreadsheets "...ver2..." and "...ver3..." (they should be easy to find in the link below)


https://onedrive.live.com/?id=913E9944ACDF5E46%21116&cid=913E9944ACDF5E46

(Again): Even though all files were virus free when I uploaded them to one-drive, I recommend you do a virus scan after you download any files from the internet.

----
"American..." spreadsheet instructions:

If you follow my instructions from the links below....

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/31799-no-jackpot-winner-powerball-prop-bet/40/#post769684

and

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/31799-no-jackpot-winner-powerball-prop-bet/40/#post769690


... then the only change to these instructions for the American odds is instead of ....

Quote: ksdjdj

(snip)
. In cell "B11", type in the decimal odds on offer for the "no jackpot winner" in this cell.
Important: This spreadsheet only works with decimal odds (I may do a American odds one later, if there is enough demand for it).
(snip)

... you would do this:
. In cell "B11", type in the American odds on offer for the "no jackpot winner" in this cell.