No Jackpot Winner Powerball Prop Bet

Quote: Boz

The person betting against the house always gets lesser odds. See any money line bet.

My offer is you bet $250 on the “Yes” a Mega Millions jackpot is hit on 12-17-19. If you win I pay you $1750.

7/1 isn’t exactly an AP play but it’s better than you can get elsewhere.

Multiple long term members will verify my money is good and I assume yours is as well.

Offer is also available to any long term verifiable member.

Let me know. 1 offer available.

Sorry, I won't take 7/1 (the offer in my previous post is the best I can do)

Note: If it was "life-changing amounts" I would consider your offer, but I only bet about 15% of my bankroll, instead of the 10.5% that I wanted to.

Thank you for the offer, anyway.

Quote: Wizard

(snip)
Any thoughts on how the odds tend to sway?

I think I misread the question, when I replied the first time, so here are "my thoughts":

"small odds": = odds smaller than $1.40 (-250)
"big odds" = odds greater than $2.40 (+140)
"low estimated EV" = a figure up to 10%
"high estimated EV" = a figure of about 30% (or more)

The current, "average odds sway", would look like this:
1. For draws with a "low estimated EV" and/or "small odds" for the "no prop", I think a "common odds sway" is as follows:
(a) When the odds have just been put up, the odds will be good for the "no prop".
(b) Somewhere "in the middle of betting", the odds on the "no prop" usually get worse.
(c) Then "close to the draw (the day/night of the draw), the odds on the "no prop", often get a bit better (probably because the "rec punters" are getting their bets on, closer to the draw?).

2. For draws with a "high estimated EV" and/or "big odds" for the "no prop", I think a "common odds sway" is as follows:
(a) When the odds have just been put up, the odds will be REALLY good for the "no prop".
(b) Then the "no prop" odds will get "slaughtered/smashed" ***, until all the "smart punters" stop betting (or the draw has commenced)

***: see link below, for an example of a typical "type 2. (big odds)" draw (scroll down to the parts that say "other info", "Update (about 810 pm EST)", and "update 3 (about 1035 pm EST)"):

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/31799-no-jackpot-winner-powerball-prop-bet/#post708985

Note: I am often asleep when the "odds sway" happens for the "small odds" draws, so I don't know when they occur exactly (all I know is that it happens sometime in the 8 hours of going to sleep and waking up).

Thanks for your thoughts.

Regarding earlier posts, you were right that my calculator was wonky for Mega Millions jackpots slightly over 440M. I just fixed it, please have another look.

Quote: Wizard

Thanks for your thoughts.

Regarding earlier posts, you were right that my calculator was wonky for Mega Millions jackpots slightly over 440M. I just fixed it, please have another look.

aside from this particular post I put the number at 0 that we can find another post from you on this forum where you use the word wonky.

Quote: AxelWolf

aside from this particular post I put the number at 0 that we can find another post from you on this forum where you use the word wonky.

I think I use that word once in a while. I think I said "The Asian girl in Devo's 'Whip it' video has a wonky eye" before.

I am removing*** my offer in the link below early because the odds for the Mega Millions are now -700 @ 5d for the No Jackpot Winner 12/17/19

***: I will not be putting up a new offer at this time, so you can only get that with 5d (odds correct at time of post).

The Powerball No Jackpot Winner 12/18/19 odds have gone to -1000 now

link: https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/31799-no-jackpot-winner-powerball-prop-bet/15/#post750307

Important Update for Mega Millions:

I went to the site below, and have decided to update the betting summary for the Mega Millions, since there is a significant jump in estimated ticket sales:

https://www.txlottery.org/export/sites/lottery/Games/Mega_Millions/Estimated_Jackpot.html

Also, click on the link below for the "steps " of how I work out the "estimated ticket ranges" for the MM (once you have clicked on the link, scroll down to "Extra info"):
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/31799-no-jackpot-winner-powerball-prop-bet/13/#post750102

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"New" Betting Summary:

Game: Mega Millions
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 12/17/19"
Odds: -700
Estimated Chance 89.66...% (based on an estimate of 33 million tickets*** sold)
Estimated EV: +2.47...%
Bet Amount (if I was having a bet at this point in time) : ~ 6.9% of bank roll (about 2/5^^^ Kelly)
When did I have a bet: Already had my bet earlier.

***: My new estimated range would be: 29 to 37 million tickets

Note: The rough "random ticket break-even point" at -700 on the "no jackpot winner" prop is: 40.3 to 40.5 million tickets (so I still think the bet will be EV, but no guarantees).

^^^: If I was having my bet now, I would probably bet "2/5 Kelly" since I am more "confident in my ticket estimate", closer to the draw.

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Other:

If you want to see my "early estimate" for this MM, then see link below:

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/31799-no-jackpot-winner-powerball-prop-bet/14/#post750107

If you want to see a post where there is another significant jump, between my early and late estimate see link below (it is for Powerball though):

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/31799-no-jackpot-winner-powerball-prop-bet/#post708985

Quote: Wizard

The odds on the Dec 17 Mega Millions have dropped to -800. That's a 3.64% player edge -- worth doing. Think I'll throw down $400 to win $50.

Dang, the Mega Millions hit.

Quote: AxelWolf

aside from this particular post I put the number at 0 that we can find another post from you on this forum where you use the word wonky.

Quote: Wizard

I think I use that word once in a while. I think I said "The Asian girl in Devo's 'Whip it' video has a wonky eye" before.

Axel, nailing the odds again as always. Wiz proved him wrong before I could take the bet =D. While I may not remember every thread, less we forget I've read every single thread on this forum, well at least every single blackjack and gambling related thread.

For the Mega Millions draw on the 12/17/19, I put 2,925 down and the bet lost, .

Opening Bal: 27,930
Finishing Bal: 25,005
P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: (995)
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 91.40...%
Odds Taken: -650
Actual EV: 5.47...%
Tickets Sold***: 27,181,395
*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm

Reminder: the results are "simulated" now (see reason(s) in this post) >>> https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/31799-no-jackpot-winner-powerball-prop-bet/10/#post748872 >>>> then scroll down to "other info".

Reminder 2 (?): In case I haven't said it before in this thread, the "actual EV" figure above is based on "perfect ticket information, before the draw results were (are?) known" . By that I mean, if I knew the "actual tickets" before the draw, then that is what my "actual ev" would have been (for a draw where 100% of the tickets were "machine/random" picks).
Obviously, once the results are known, your "EV" turns to an "actual value" (your "actual result" can either be lose 'X' or win " 'X' times odds to 1", as you can't push with this bet).

Note: "Reminder 2" is mainly to help newer members and anyone who couldn't quite work out why I was putting up an "actual EV" figure after the result was already "known".

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Other:

The first MM draw after it has been hit, used to start off with odds^^^ of about - 4000 to - 3000 for the no prop.
I will keep having a look as "they seem" to be putting up better odds for the "no prop" (earlier in the "rolls" now).

^^^: If they put up better than -2400, I will probably have a bet.

I would have an estimated tickets range of 9.2 million to 10.7 million for the next MM draw,

My "early estimate range" was a lot "closer" than my "late estimate range" for the last MM.
I will email the lotto report website to see if the "jackpot contribution % is still the same", as I can't work out why my "late estimate" was out by so much###.

###: I don't like being out by "so much" on the small to medium draws, but I don't mind being "out" by 20 to 40% for the big draws, like the $1.537 B draw on the 10/23/18 (since the bookie usually puts up "high/very high player edge odds" for the "no prop on the big/really big draws")

Here is my "late estimate" for tonights' PB: 14.3 to 14.9 million tickets^*^
(Trying to get my confidence back now, by picking a "narrow range" for the PB today )

^*^: If you are wondering why the estimate is less than the "actual tickets" when compared to the PB draw on the 12/14/19, then it is just because "Wednesday draws" tend to sell less tickets compared to "Saturday draws". Again, no "saved/processed data" to back up this claim, so it is just a "subjective claim" at the moment (I am probably about "99.9% confident that it is true for the majority of low to medium size jackpots", though)

For the Powerball draw on the 12/18/19, I put 3,562.5 down to win 375.

Opening Bal: 25,005
Finishing Bal: 25,380
P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: (620)
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 95.26...%
Odds Taken: -950
Actual EV: 5.29...%
Tickets Sold***: 14,175,783
*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm

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Other:

If anyone wants to know how I lock in the odds that I am taking "safely", in other words "without over-betting my bankroll/budget", then read below:

At 5dimes there is a thing called "if bets" and "rolling if bets", they are similar to having a "parlay", but compared to a "parlay" you have more control over how much to bet "on the 2nd leg" of an "if bet" (see example and steps below):

Example:

Note: you are betting "full kelly" in this example just so that there are "less things to do in working out the figures" (I am still planning to do about 1/3 kelly for all my "real-life" bets)

Say you had $1000 budget and you saw the odds below for the next two "lotto draws" on the "no winner bet" (for both draws the odds are +100 just to make it "simple").

You estimate that you have a 60% chance of the "no winner" bet winning in each draw
You are "nearly certain" the "no winner odds" are going to get worse/ shorten, but you also want to get more money down if your first bet wins (see steps below on how to do it).

1. Bet 20% of your current bank roll of $1000, on the first lottery (lotto 1) @ +100
2. Have 20% of your (new) current bank roll of $800, on the second lottery (lotto 2) @ +100.
3. There should be a "heading" that has "RIF" as part of the name on the side of the screen, click on it.
4. Select "lotto 2", then click on "no winner", and then when you go to place the bet there should be an icon that says something like "IF" or "RIF" next to where you place the bet, click on that icon.
5. Then you should see a list of bets that you are allowed to use, and one of them should be your bet on "lotto 1", select that one.
6. For the "if bet" you have to "pretend that the bet in step 1" had won, and use that figure as part of your working out (in this case, your balance would have been $1200 if you only bet on lotto 1, and the bet won).
7. Take away the figure in step 6. from step 2., in this case you should get $400 (1200 minus 800).
8. Multiply the figure in step 7. by the "Kelly bet %", In this case you should select $80 as your "if bet", from lotto 1 into lotto 2 (since $80 is 20% of your "extra money" if the lotto 1 bet wins).
9. If done correctly your total bet on lotto 2 should be:
(a) $240, if the lotto 1 bet wins
(b) $160, if the lotto 1 bet loses

Also, In this example one of the four outcomes listed below would occur:
(i) "both bets lose": you lose $360 ($200 from the first bet and $160 from the 2nd bet)
(ii) "bet 1 wins and bet 2 loses": you lose $40 (you win $200 on the first bet, and lose $240 on the 2nd).
(iii) "bet 1 loses and bet 2 wins": you lose $40 (you lose $200 on the first bet, and win $160 on the 2nd).
(iv) "bet 1 and 2 win": you win $440 (win $200 on bet 1 and win $240 on bet 2).

Hope I explained the steps well enough on how to use an "if bet/ rolling if bet" effectively (for when you want to "lock in the early prices, because you think the odds will be worse in the future").

Note: if you think the odds will "stay the same" or "get better", then you can forget about the "if bet" and bet "the more normal way" (by just having "two single bets" closer to the draws).

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Other 2:

Here is the analysis for the next MM draw:

I just used 10 million tickets as the estimate for the tables below (If i was betting, I would probably use a range of 8.5 to 10.5 million tickets)

No Winner (odds @ -4000)

Outcome	Pays	Probability	Return
No winner	0.025	0.9674...	0.0241...
Winner	-1	0.0325...	-0.0325...
Total		1.0000	-0.0083...

Winner (odds +2000)

Outcome	Pays	Probability	Return
Winner	20	0.0325...	0.6501...
No winner	-1	0.9674..	-0.9674...
Total		1.0000	-0.3173...

So the estimated HOUSE EDGE^^^ is about 0.8% for the "no winner prop", and 31.7% for the "winner prop", in the next Mega Millions draw.

^^^: I wrote "house edge" in capitals because most of the time I have been using terms like "EV", in previous posts.

Note: I don't like doing tables, but I also think the "info looks nicer in a table" (so don't expect me to do it like this too often).

Also note: So that I could put up the table faster, I just "copied and pasted" the table, and a lot of the "wording" from the link below (pretty much just changed the relevant figures, where necessary):

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/31799-no-jackpot-winner-powerball-prop-bet/#post682169

Betting Summary:

Game: Powerball
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 12/21/19"
Odds: -1000
Estimated Chance: 94.36...% (based on an estimate of 16.94*** million tickets sold)
Estimated EV: +3.80...%
Bet Amount (%): ~ 12.7% of bank roll (about 1/3 Kelly)
(New###) Bet Amount ($): $3,220
When will I have a bet: now

***: I used the link>>>> https://wizardofodds.com/games/lottery/ticket-sales-calculator/ >>> then typed in 171 for "Jackpot size (in millions):" >>> lastly I clicked on "Powerball" to get the ticket estimate for this draw.

###: I have decided to add this line so that you know what figure I am using in $'s before the draw. Remember, the figures used in the "results summary page" are currently "simulated".

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Other (Not necessary for the bets we are having, but I still think it is interesting):

From when the "jackpot is reset", you would expect about 15 or 16 draws on average^^^, if a bookie put up a market for "how many rolls/draws will it take for the next Jackpot to hit in the Powerball?".

^^^: In other words about half the time it will be hit above that many draws, and half the time the jackpot will be hit below that many draws.

Important: This does NOT change the "chances in each draw", as all draws are independent of each other. In other words, knowing this doesn't change what we "plan to bet" for each draw (for the bets we are having, all we need to know are: the odds offered, the estimated tickets, the estimated EV, and the amount we plan to bet)

I just used the site below to work it out "very rough"
https://www.txlottery.org/export/sites/lottery/Documents/jackpotestimates/pb20191218.pdf

I may post a similar one for the Mega Million later, and I would expect it to be a larger number of "average rolls between jackpots hit", mainly because the chance for hitting the Jackpot in the MM is slightly lower, also tickets sales for the MM are usually less than the PB (at least for jackpots under about $200 million).

Update (about 1pm):
Once a new "jackpot roll" has started, the "rough average" number of draws for the MM jackpot to be hit is: 18.

Quick post today.

I found no winner for the Mega Millions to be a negative bet at 5Dimes.

On the PowerBall I bet $500 to win $50, with a perceived player advantage of 3.81%.

For the Powerball draw on the 12/21/19, I put 3,220 down to win 322.

Opening Bal: 25,380
Finishing Bal: 25,702
P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: (298)
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 94.51...%
Odds Taken: -1000
Actual EV: 3.96...%
Tickets Sold***: 16,491,521
*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm

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Other:

The next draw is the Christmas draw, so I will only be putting up estimated tickets on the day/night of the draw^^^, as that is when I think I will get the "best estimate".

^^^: I plan to either bet late or not at all for this draw.

Also, my plan to "bet later" is mainly for "subjective reasons###" , but I will still put up a ticket estimate on the day/night of the draw (whether I have a bet or not)

### : As I think I said in earlier posts, things like:
1. "Christmas/New Years' Bump": not enough data to prove, especially since i only think it would be significant for draws above $200 or $300 million (again subjective, as there is not enough data to prove conclusively).
2. "Saturday vs Wednesday": Wednesday draws usually have less tickets sold than Saturday draws
(technically subjective, even I think I could eventually prove or disprove this theory, since there is a lot more data available to test it, when compared to the "...Bump" in point "1.")

Below are the two best links to analyze the next Powerball draw (eg, to estimate tickets sold etc)

https://wizardofodds.com/games/lottery/ticket-sales-calculator/

Note: the advertised jackpot is currently 183 million for the draw on the 12/25/19.

https://www.txlottery.org/export/sites/lottery/Documents/jackpotestimates/pb20191221.pdf

And on the day of the next PB, this one below would probably be the "single best one" to use.

https://www.txlottery.org/export/sites/lottery/Documents/jackpotestimates/pb20191225.pdf

Note: For the "txlottery" pages. to get the estimated tickets remember to divide the figure(s) in the "Sales" column by 2 (since it costs $2 per ticket).

Note 2: The link that says "...pb20191225.pdf" at the end, won't work until the 12/25/19.

It is a matter of precision calculatin the odds of winning any lotto including powerball, mega mils. We need to know number of tickets sold - theose are estimates only. We can do some approx. good calculations by converting estimated jackpots to estimated number of tickets sold.

There is a resource with many cases regarding such calculations with plenty formulae. When the jackpot exceeds the odds the player has an advantage – no more house advantage! The cases are rare and the odds still extreme.

\if this editor doesn’t allow active links, google instead Odds to Win Powerball, Mega Millions Jackpot, Tickets Sold – you’ll find the link with the same name.
https://saliu.com/powerball-jackpot-odds.html
Odds to Win Powerball, Mega Millions Jackpot, Tickets Sold

Quote: weezrDASvegas

It is a matter of precision calculatin the odds of winning any lotto including powerball, mega mils. We need to know number of tickets sold - theose are estimates only. We can do some approx. good calculations by converting estimated jackpots to estimated number of tickets sold.

There is a resource with many cases regarding such calculations with plenty formulae. When the jackpot exceeds the odds the player has an advantage – no more house advantage! The cases are rare and the odds still extreme.

\if this editor doesn’t allow active links, google instead Odds to Win Powerball, Mega Millions Jackpot, Tickets Sold – you’ll find the link with the same name.
https://saliu.com/powerball-jackpot-odds.html
Odds to Win Powerball, Mega Millions Jackpot, Tickets Sold

Hi weezrDASvegas,
I think there is some interesting stuff in the link you provided.
But I don't agree with a lot of the claims on the site because I think the "wording is wrong/misleading" (at least in relation to this thread in general).
I am not saying this is done intentionally and don't really want to get into a long/heated argument about it, because I am quite often not very good at getting my point across (I am sure other people on this site would probably confirm that my "lotto math" posted in this thread is solid though).

Below is an example of one section of the site that i think got it "wrong" (it is about half-way down the page, in the link that you provided >>> https://saliu.com/powerball-jackpot-odds.html )

"... The Powerball game has higher odds beginning October 2015: 5 regular numbers from 1 to 69 and 1 Power Ball from 1 to 26. The odds to hit the jackpot (5 regulars AND the Power Ball) are 1 in 292201338 (the worst in the lottery business).
The January 13, 2016 drawing has an estimated jackpot of 1.5 billion dollars — staggering, the largest jackpot ever in the lottery business.
The winnings pool allocated to the grand prize (jackpot) is set to 68% of ticket sales. That means that some 1500000000 / .68 = 2.2 billion tickets sold.
The calculations that the Powerball jackpot will be won on January 16, 2016 —
p = 1 / 292,201,338
N = 2,200,000,000

Doing the calculations in SuperFormula, we get the most accurate result:

DC = 99.95%. ... "

I agree that IF (big if) the tickets sold in a single draw were 2.2 billion tickets, then yes "there would be about a 99.95% chance of at least 1 winner" (but that is where the agreement ends for the above example).
The reason for this disagreement is, according to the link here >>> http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison16.htm <<<
635,103,137*** tickets were sold in the draw on January 13, 2016.
***: For "100% randomly chosen tickets" that is about an 11.4% chance of not being hit, so in other words, that is an ~88.6% chance of at least 1 winner.

I hope I have made my point clearly enough, but if I haven't I am sure someone "better at writing" will eventually tell you why I am probably more "correct" (at least in the context of what has been written about previously in this thread).

Let's look at the drawings for 12/24 and 12/25

Date: Dec 24
Lottery: Mega Millions
Jackpot: 45M
Estimated sales: 9.74M
Probability of winner: 3.17%
Probability no winner: 96.83%
Fair line no winner: -3055
5 Dimes line: -3500
Player advantage: negative
Wiz bet: $0

Date: Dec 25
Lottery: PowerBall
Jackpot: 183M
Estimated sales: 17.49M
Probability of winner: 5.81%
Probability no winner: 94.19%
Fair line no winner: -1621
5 Dimes line: -1000
Player advantage: 3.61%
Wiz bet: $400 to win $40.

All due respect to ksd for the Christmas bump theory, but I'm in a gambling mood and am betting it anyway! May nobody win (hahahahha!!!). I am such a Christmas scrooge.

Quote: Wizard

Let's look at the drawings for 12/24 and 12/25

Date: Dec 24
Lottery: Mega Millions
Jackpot: 45M
Estimated sales: 9.74M
Probability of winner: 3.17%
Probability no winner: 96.83%
Fair line no winner: -3055
5 Dimes line: -3500
Player advantage: negative
Wiz bet: $0

Date: Dec 25
Lottery: PowerBall
Jackpot: 183M
Estimated sales: 17.49M
Probability of winner: 5.81%
Probability no winner: 94.19%
Fair line no winner: -1621
5 Dimes line: -1000
Player advantage: 3.61%
Wiz bet: $400 to win $40.

All due respect to ksd for the Christmas bump theory, but I'm in a gambling mood and am betting it anyway! May nobody win (hahahahha!!!). I am such a Christmas scrooge.

Good luck, there is probably a nearly 100% chance that I will bet on it too, just going to wait closer to the draw.
There is even a good chance that it may be a "Christmas dip" (at least this time) because according to the Powerball websites' own "early estimate" on the Dec 21, they are expecting to sell 11.48 million*** tickets ??? (if it is not a typo or other error?)

***: $22,964,768 (estimated PB sales in $) from the link here >>>> https://www.txlottery.org/export/sites/lottery/Documents/jackpotestimates/pb20191221.pdf

Merry Christmas, and "may nobody win" to you too. : )

Quote: ksdjdj

Merry Christmas, and "may nobody win" to you too. : )

You too!

I was listening to the radio on the drive home yesterday and it spoke of a world-record being broken in Spain for the largest lottery jackpot -- El Gordo.

‘El Gordo’ Lottery in Spain Spreads Riches Worth $2.6 Billion.

What I don't get is the article says the winning "number" was 26590. Wikipedia says the draw is 5 numbers from 1 to 54 and one from 0 to 9. The odds of winning the jackpot are 1 in 31,625,100.

You right – don’t put hard on yourself. aint easy to explain these things. Only the exact number of tickets could calculate the most precise odds of winning the jackpot. and that’s not enough cos you see that 95% odds do not have a winner sometimes.

So everything is a guestimate like the site you refer to. You need know the percentage of sales allocated to prizes, percentage of prize money allocated to jackpot – then estimate total tickets sold. Then there is one more problem if one ticket consists of two combos… know what I mean?

If you could play all possible combos then you’re guaranteed to win. but who could possibly fill millions of tickets by hand??? Maybe one day they shall allow playing online state lotteries wher you could download a file with all combos and deposit the right amount of monies. But hey one more problem – there more winning tickets not only yours!!! You paid 300 mil to cover all powerball combos but there are 4 winners 250 mil per ticket say.

The aussies who won Virginia loto in 1980s were lucky… they had the only winning ticket of some 100 mil and they paid some 14 mil tickets. They thought they covered all combos but they played quick pix or randomly chosen combos that covered some 63% of possibilities cos of repeats.

Anyway this is the best oportunity to play the big lotos when the jackpot is higher than the odds. You got a players advantage. But you need play millions such situations if we live that long.

So methinks I beat you in getting the point across… wink…wink!

Quote: Wizard

You too!

I was listening to the radio on the drive home yesterday and it spoke of a world-record being broken in Spain for the largest lottery jackpot -- El Gordo.

‘El Gordo’ Lottery in Spain Spreads Riches Worth $2.6 Billion.

What I don't get is the article says the winning "number" was 26590. Wikipedia says the draw is 5 numbers from 1 to 54 and one from 0 to 9. The odds of winning the jackpot are 1 in 31,625,100.

People need one common language. It was latin now its english. This is how the gordo site explains the game…

elGordo
Every December 22th. 2.380 million € in prizes. The most famous and billionare draw in the world.

elGordo Christmas is the most traditional draw in Spain. It is a tradition that everyone plays the lottery on December 22th.

December 21 will be public at 23:00, the exam and recount of the number bowls and prizes bowls that are going to be in elGordo Christmas.
This balls could be checked by the assistants if they want it, with a previous request and the president's authorization.
When the recount is finished, everybody leaves the saloon and it is secured with interior latches all its access except the platform door, which keys are kept by 3 different claveros, once closed and sealed.

The saloon is opened at at 8.00 the day 22, and everybody could get in, the only limitation is the capacity of the local.
At 8.30 is constituted the table that presides and authorizes the draw. After this, when the balls are showed to the public, the bowls are transported mechanically by the tolva, where they were deposited previously, to the bowl

A boy or a girl of St. Ildefonso´s school extracts a ball from the bowl of numbers and another children at the same time, took another of the bowl of prizes, both are sang by another two children, that inserts the balls in wires.

These wires are joined in a table untill they contain 2 hundred balls of each type, being properly closed in front of the president´s table with the agree of the president and the auditor.

What could be clearer? Methinks this is absolutely the best gambling in history including escaping inquisition when they started this game. The odds are in the millions but the prizes are in the billions. i wonder what currency they use if it’s the same as during inquisition…

https://www.elgordo.com/games/elgordo/indexen.asp

Quote: weezrDASvegas

Quote: Wizard

You too!

I was listening to the radio on the drive home yesterday and it spoke of a world-record being broken in Spain for the largest lottery jackpot -- El Gordo.

‘El Gordo’ Lottery in Spain Spreads Riches Worth $2.6 Billion.

What I don't get is the article says the winning "number" was 26590. Wikipedia says the draw is 5 numbers from 1 to 54 and one from 0 to 9. The odds of winning the jackpot are 1 in 31,625,100.

People need one common language. It was latin now its english. This is how the gordo site explains the game…

elGordo
Every December 22th. 2.380 million € in prizes. The most famous and billionare draw in the world.

elGordo Christmas is the most traditional draw in Spain. It is a tradition that everyone plays the lottery on December 22th.

December 21 will be public at 23:00, the exam and recount of the number bowls and prizes bowls that are going to be in elGordo Christmas.
This balls could be checked by the assistants if they want it, with a previous request and the president's authorization.
When the recount is finished, everybody leaves the saloon and it is secured with interior latches all its access except the platform door, which keys are kept by 3 different claveros, once closed and sealed.

The saloon is opened at at 8.00 the day 22, and everybody could get in, the only limitation is the capacity of the local.
At 8.30 is constituted the table that presides and authorizes the draw. After this, when the balls are showed to the public, the bowls are transported mechanically by the tolva, where they were deposited previously, to the bowl

A boy or a girl of St. Ildefonso´s school extracts a ball from the bowl of numbers and another children at the same time, took another of the bowl of prizes, both are sang by another two children, that inserts the balls in wires.

These wires are joined in a table untill they contain 2 hundred balls of each type, being properly closed in front of the president´s table with the agree of the president and the auditor.

What could be clearer? Methinks this is absolutely the best gambling in history including escaping inquisition when they started this game. The odds are in the millions but the prizes are in the billions. i wonder what currency they use if it’s the same as during inquisition…

https://www.elgordo.com/games/elgordo/indexen.asp

the saloon reminds me of jessie james, billy the kidd, wyat earp… go for da jackpot boys!!!

Quote: Wizard

You too!

I was listening to the radio on the drive home yesterday and it spoke of a world-record being broken in Spain for the largest lottery jackpot -- El Gordo.

‘El Gordo’ Lottery in Spain Spreads Riches Worth $2.6 Billion.

What I don't get is the article says the winning "number" was 26590. Wikipedia says the draw is 5 numbers from 1 to 54 and one from 0 to 9. The odds of winning the jackpot are 1 in 31,625,100.

I agree with your figure for that "El gordo" and I was about to write "I don't get it either" when I noticed this, in the Wikipedia article:

"...The largest prize given at the Spanish Christmas Lottery (and to a lesser extent at any other Spanish lottery), is also referred to as 'El Gordo'...."

So this is probably the correct wikipedia link >>> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_Christmas_Lottery <<< since there is an official 'El Gordo' lottery. but some other big lotteries can also be called 'El Gordo' (confusing right?)

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Update (about 350 pm):

The no winner is now -1100 for the next PB draw, hoping it 'bounces back' to -1000 (or better) but I will still probably take -1100, when I bet closer to the draw date..

I'm still trying to make sense of this Christmas El Gordo lottery. Here are some links, which help:

El Gordo de Navidad List of Prizes
Spanish Christmas Lottery (wiki)

It seems this has different rules than the ordinary Gordo drawings. Most prizes seem based on a random integer from 0 to 99,999. However, other numbers are drawn for 12 lesser prizes.

Quote: Wizard

I'm still trying to make sense of this Christmas El Gordo lottery. Here are some links, which help:

El Gordo de Navidad List of Prizes
Spanish Christmas Lottery (wiki)

It seems this has different rules than the ordinary Gordo drawings.

I have been trying to make sense of it too, I think it is a 'raffle*** like' draw and I originally thought this (but kept 'flip-flopping' in my head between 'lottery' and 'raffle' every time I looked further into it).

***: "....The difference with El Gordo is that it operates as a RAFFLE, distributing a specific number of prizes that all have a set value before the draw starts. Because of this, El Gordo offers a near 1 in 100,000 chance of winning the jackpot..."

It is interesting to note that some 'lower value' prizes are harder to 'hit' than the 'higher value' ones (see links below)

odds of winning
El Gordo de Navidad List of Prizes (Repost of the link you provided)

One example of a "lower prize being harder to hit" would be: "5th prize" vs "The number before and the number after El Gordo 1st prize"

1 ticket (per Billete) has:
(a) a 1/12,500 chance of winning "5th prize"
(b) a 1/50,000 chance of winning "The number before and the number after El Gordo 1st prize"

Yet the prizes are:
(a) €60,000 for winning "5th place"
(b) €20,000 for winning "The number before and the number after El Gordo 1st prize".

Quote:

Most prizes seem based on a random integer from 0 to 99,999. However, other numbers are drawn for 12 lesser prizes.

I think the "other numbers" are based on the the numbers drawn from the "major prizes" (see some examples below):

"The number before and the number after El Gordo 1st prize"
"Same first three digits as 2nd prize"
"Same first three digits as 4th prize"
"Same last two digits as 3rd prize"
"Same last digit as El Gordo"
"Five correct numbers"

Note: for the "Five correct numbers", I think it means matching all the numbers in "El Gordo 1st prize", but getting the order wrong (?)

Below is a link for the winning numbers in the "2019 draw" ("1st to 5th prize" numbers):

http://www.elgordo.net/en/results/el-gordo-de-navidad-2019

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Update (about 1130 pm):

I think "La Pedrea"### is the same as the "Five correct numbers"###

###: There are 1794 ways to get "La Pedrea" (Spanish Christmas Lottery (wiki)) and 1794 ways to get "5 correct numbers" (odds of winning ).

Is 1794 the number of permutations (combinations ?) for: matching all the digits#*# in "El Gordo 1st prize", but getting the order wrong ?

Edit #*#: changed this from "numbers" to "digits", at about 1210 am.

Quote: ksdjdj

Quote: Wizard

I'm still trying to make sense of this Christmas El Gordo lottery. Here are some links, which help:

El Gordo de Navidad List of Prizes
Spanish Christmas Lottery (wiki)

It seems this has different rules than the ordinary Gordo drawings.

(snip)
Update (about 1130 pm):

I think "La Pedrea"### is the same as the "Five correct numbers"###

###: There are 1794 ways to get "La Pedrea" (Spanish Christmas Lottery (wiki)) and 1794 ways to get "5 correct numbers" (odds of winning ).

Is 1794 the number of permutations (combinations ?) for: matching all the digits#*# in "El Gordo 1st prize", but getting the order wrong ?

Edit #*#: changed this from "numbers" to "digits", at about 1210 am.

I was having another look and even if there can be 1794*** combos if every digit is different for the "five correct numbers", now I think that "can't be right" because if the "El Gordo" ball drawn is: 00.000 , 11,111 , 22,222 and so on like that (all the way up to 99,999). then there would only be "one way to arrange the winning digits" (?)

***: I haven't checked if that is even correct yet, because it requires more "math knowledge" than I currently have (eg I would have to research the math involved to have a chance to work it out)

-------
The MM got to -3000 last time I looked and the PB is currently -1050 for the "no jackpot winner" odds.

Betting Summary:

Game: Powerball
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 12/25/19"
Odds: -1050
Estimated Chance: 95.64...% (based on an estimate of 13*** million tickets sold)
Estimated EV: +4.75...%
Bet Amount (%): ~ 14.3% of bank roll (about "28.6%" ^^^ Kelly)
Bet Amount ($): $3,675
When will I have a bet: now

***: Based on all the information I could find, I think the range should be between 11.2 and 13.2 million tickets

^^^: Not as "confident" with my ticket estimate (too much conflicting info) so that is why I am betting about 28.6% (or 2/7 ) Kelly, this time.

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Other:

If it wasn't the Christmas draw, and I didn't have access to this site below
https://wizardofodds.com/games/lottery/ticket-sales-calculator/ >>>> or this site
>>>> https://www.txlottery.org/export/sites/lottery/Documents/jackpotestimates/pb20191225.pdf
then I would have probably put up a range between 16 and 18 million tickets (as my estimate).

Again, looks like it will be a "dip" (instead of a "bump"###) if the estimate on the "txlottery.org" link is to be believed (?)

###: Remember the "bump" I predicted around this time, is subjective, as there is not enough data to prove or disprove, IMO. But I did clarify later that I only noticed it for "jackpots above $300 million" (possibly ?).

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Other '2':

The "no jackpot winner" for the Mega Millions went from -3500 to -3000, so it will be interesting to me if it becomes slightly +EV soon (I have never seen the "no winner" go + EV this early in the draw before).

If less than about 9.9 million tickets were sold in the draw on the 12/24/19, then it would have had a "slight +EV" on the "no jackpot winner" at -3000.

Note: At the time of this post, I do not know what the actual number of tickets sold was for the MM draw on the 12/24/19.

Also, if they are not on break, the ticket sales should show up soon on this link below:
http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm

Update(s) (odds and EV):

Powerball No Jackpot Winner 12/25/19:
Current Odds: -1000 (was -1050 last time I posted)
Estimated EV: ~ 5.2% (was ~4.75% when I had my bet).

Mega Millions No Jackpot Winner 12/27/19:
Current Odds: -3000 (They only "just put up the odds", so no changes that I can see)
Estimated EV: ??? (Odds too small so I will wait, maybe I will have a bet if they get to -2750 or better).

----
Update 2 (about 630 pm):

PB is still -1000 for "no jackpot winner"
MM is now -2750 for "no jackpot winner" (still not sure if I will have a bet, even though there is about +0.3% estimated EV).

For the Powerball draw on the 12/25/19, I put 3,675 down to win 350.

Opening Bal: 25,702
Finishing Bal: 26,052
P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: 52
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 94.25...%
Odds Taken: -1050
Actual EV: 3.22...%
Tickets Sold***: 17,300,095 (I had 13 million, and the Wiz's Calc had 17.49 million, as the estimate).
*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm

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Other:

I was "way out" for the last PB ("backed the wrong horse", by putting too much "faith"### in the "PB's own estimates").
###: Talk about a case of TMCI ("Too Much Conflicting Information").

Also, the WIz's Calculator was within 200,000 tickets, I think that is the 2nd or 3rd closest the calc has been to the "actual number", since it has been available to use.

Lastly, there are no markets up for the next PB, and the MM is still -2750 for the "no jackpot winner" (not enough "buffer". so at the moment I won't be having a bet in the MM).

----
Other 2:

My estimate for the next PB is 18.1 to 19.1 million tickets (trying to get my "confidence back", so that is why I am putting up a "very small range" for the next PB).

Quote: Wizard

Date: Dec 25
Lottery: PowerBall
Jackpot: 183M
Estimated sales: 17.49M
Probability of winner: 5.81%
Probability no winner: 94.19%
Fair line no winner: -1621
5 Dimes line: -1000
Player advantage: 3.61%
Wiz bet: $400 to win $40.

All due respect to ksd for the Christmas bump theory, but I'm in a gambling mood and am betting it anyway! May nobody win (hahahahha!!!). I am such a Christmas scrooge.

No Christmas day winner! I'm $40 richer.

Betting Summary:

Game: Powerball
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 12/28/2019"
Odds: -1000
Estimated Chance: 93.44...% (based on an estimate of 19.8*** million tickets sold)
Estimated EV: +2.79...%
Bet Amount (%): ~ 9.3% of bank roll (about 1/3 Kelly)
Bet Amount ($): $2,430
When will I have a bet: now

***: I think the range should be between 18.3 and 19.8 million tickets ("late estimate").

----
Other:

They put the PB odds up late for this draw (it happened sometime in the last 9 hours).
The "No Jackpot Winner" for the Mega Millions is -2500, I will "wait and see", so no bet at the moment for MM.

Let's look at the drawings for 12/28 and 12/31

Date: Dec 31
Lottery: Mega Millions
Jackpot: 55M
Estimated sales: 10.02M
Probability of winner: 3.26%
Probability no winner: 96.74%
Fair line no winner: -2967
5 Dimes line: -2500
Player advantage: 0.61%
Wiz bet: $125 to win $5

Date: Dec 28
Lottery: PowerBall
Jackpot: 200M
Estimated sales: 18.31M
Probability of winner: 6.08%
Probability no winner: 93.92%
Fair line no winner: -1545
5 Dimes line: -1000
Player advantage: 3.31%
Wiz bet: $300 to win $30.

For the Powerball draw on the 12/28/19, I put 2,430 down to win 243.

Opening Bal: 26,052
Finishing Bal: 26,295
P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: 295
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 93.64...%
Odds Taken: -1000
Actual EV: 3.01...%
Tickets Sold***: 19,170,286
*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm

Betting Summaries:

Game: Mega Millions
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 12/31/19"
Odds: -2150
Estimated Chance: 96.33...% (based on an estimate of 11.3^^^ million tickets sold)
Estimated EV: +0.81...%
Bet Amount (%): ~ 5.8% of bank roll (about 1/3 Kelly)
Bet Amount ($): $1,548
When will I have a bet: now

^^^: My range is 9.8 to 11.3 million tickets.
Also, normally I won't have a bet when the "Estimated EV" is this low, but because the odds are so small (-2150) I will make an exception (the actual sales need to be less than ~13.75 million "tickets" for it to still be a "good bet" at -2150).

----
Game: Powerball
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 01/01/20"
Odds: -900
Estimated Chance: 93.38...% (based on an estimate of 20*** million tickets sold)
Estimated EV: +3.76...%
Bet Amount (%): ~ 11.3% of bank roll (about 1/3 Kelly)
Bet Amount if "MM bet Loses" ($): $2,790 ###
Bet Amount if "MM bet Wins" ($): $2,979 ###
When will I have a bet: now

***: My "early" range is 18 to 20 million tickets.

###: Doing an "IF/RIF bet", so that is why I have two different amounts as my bet for the PB, for more info see link here >>> https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/31799-no-jackpot-winner-powerball-prop-bet/17/#post750733 >>>> then scroll down to "other: ".

"Odds sway" update:

For odds worse than -1600, I will tend to "wait and see" rather than get my bet on "as early as possible" (since the EV is usually quite small for these bets anyway).

Important: For worse than -1600, I haven't made enough observations to tell you which way the odds move in general , but I think the "wait and see" approach is a fair one to use, until I have observed more draws at these or similar odds.

Because of the reason(s) above, my updated "odds sway thoughts" are below:

"tiny odds": = odds worse than -1600
"small odds": = odds between about -1600 and -250
"big odds" = odds greater than +140
"low estimated EV" = a figure up to 10%
"high estimated EV" = a figure of about 30% (or more)

The current, "average odds sway", would look like this:
1. For draws with "tiny odds" for the "no prop", I haven't made enough observations yet to determine a "common odds sway". So I have decided to use a "wait and see what the odds do" approach rather than bet "as soon as the odds are put up", at this time:

2. For draws with a "low estimated EV" and/or "small odds" for the "no prop", I think a "common odds sway" is as follows:
(a) When the odds have just been put up, the odds will be good for the "no prop".
(b) Somewhere "in the middle of betting", the odds on the "no prop" usually get worse.
(c) Then "close to the draw (the day/night of the draw), the odds on the "no prop" often get a bit better (probably because the "rec punters" are getting their bets on, closer to the draw?).

3. For draws with a "high estimated EV" and/or "big odds" for the "no prop", I think a "common odds sway" is as follows:
(a) When the odds have just been put up, the odds will be REALLY good for the "no prop".
(b) Then the "no prop" odds will get "slaughtered/smashed" ***, until all the "smart punters" stop betting (or the draw has commenced)

***: see link below, for an example of a typical "type 2. (big odds)" draw (scroll down to the parts that say "other info", "Update (about 810 pm EST)", and "update 3 (about 1035 pm EST)"):
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/31799-no-jackpot-winner-powerball-prop-bet/#post708985

Note: My "thoughts" for point "2." and "3." haven't changed (except they used to be "1." and "2,", in the link below)
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/31799-no-jackpot-winner-powerball-prop-bet/16/#post750360

Is this not like betting huge favourites in sports? I mean you win most of the time but a couple of losses wipes out your wins and more. Or is this much different than betting big favs in sports?

Quote: vegas

Is this not like betting huge favourites in sports?

No, it seems that way at the moment, but there can be value### on draws with "dog odds" for the "no jackpot winner" too (see my early posts on page 1 or 2 for a good example of this).

###: often the estimated value is "far greater" than what I have currently been posting (well over 40% estimated EV, on some of the "big draws").

Quote: vegas

I mean you win most of the time but a couple of losses wipes out your wins and more. Or is this much different than betting big favs in sports?

This is different from betting on big favorites in sports, as we should have a long term edge*** doing this.

(update/edit at about 525 pm) ***: As long as the "actual tickets sales" convert to "less tickets" than what the "bookie's implied chances"are (inferred from the "bookie's odds") then there will be "+ value on the bet" (this is only true for betting on the "no jackpot winner").

On rare occasions we may have a bet and the "actual EV' may be negative.
"Actual Negative EV" hasn't happened to me on an individual bet yet, but it is possible, especially for "tiny odds" or "big jackpot draws".
"tiny odds": have a small estimated edge, less than 1% usually, so not much "buffer", if we are off with the ticket estimate.
"big jackpot draws": have none to minimal "historical data points" to use, so the ticket estimates can be off by greater amounts.

-----
Lastly, even though this thread is under "sports betting", it is not a true "sports bet" (I know you didn't ask about this, but thought I should clarify).

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Update (535 pm):

Below is a link that may help clarify what I meant above (see " *** " above)

https://onedrive.live.com/?id=913E9944ACDF5E46%21116&cid=913E9944ACDF5E46

Then once you open the spreadsheet (either one should work):
>>>> go to the sheet that says "Other_formulas"
>>>> then type in the current "no jackpot winner" odds (decimal odds) in cell "B2" for "Mega Millions", or cell "E2" for "Powerball"
>>>> the figure next to the cell "Break even point" is the "break-even" figure in "number of tickets" (the "actual tickets sold" have to consistently be less than this figure to have a "long-term edge", on the "no jackpot winner" prop).

Important: Only use the "no jackpot winner" odds on offer in cell "B2" or "E2", as there will be a big error in the "break even point" figure, if you use the "(yes) jackpot winner" odds.

Other: the spreadsheet(s) were originally "done quickly for personal use". If you download it, you may want to change the names for some of the cells to "improve" it.

Other 2: I think I have said this before, but none of the formulas in the spreadsheet are my own, so all credit should go to the people that provided them, in earlier posts in this thread.

Odds update(s):

Mega Millions - No Jackpot Winner 12/31/19 is currently -2000 (opened -2500 and then went to -2150)
Powerball - No Jackpot Winner 01/01/2020 is currently -900 (has been -900 all the way through betting, so far)

Note: The odds could have been better or worse than what I mentioned above, as I am not looking at them 24/7, and once I have my bet on, I probably only look about once per day.

Quote: ksdjdj

Odds update(s):

Mega Millions - No Jackpot Winner 12/31/19 is currently -2000 (opened -2500 and then went to -2150)
Powerball - No Jackpot Winner 01/01/2020 is currently -900 (has been -900 all the way through betting, so far)

Note: The odds could have been better or worse than what I mentioned above, as I am not looking at them 24/7, and once I have my bet on, I probably only look about once per day.

MM - No Jackpot Winner 12/31/19 is currently -1800, (see new betting summaries below)
PB - No Jackpot Winner 01/01/2020 is currently -800, (see new betting summaries below)

----

Betting Summaries:

Game: Mega Millions
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 12/31/19"
Odds: -1800
Estimated Chance: 96.33...% (based on an estimate of 11.3^^^ million tickets sold)
Estimated EV: +1.68...%
Bet Amount (%): ~ 10.1% of bank roll (about 1/3 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: Already had my bet @ -2150 (should have used "wait and see" a bit longer)

^^^: My range is 9.8 to 11.3 million tickets.

----
Game: Powerball
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 01/01/20"
Odds: -800
Estimated Chance: 93.64...% (based on an estimate of 19.2*** million tickets sold)
Estimated EV: +5.34...%
Bet Amount (%): ~ 14.3% of bank roll (about 1/3 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: Already had my bet @ -900 (I generally plan to bet early when "these sorts of odds are put up").

***: My "late" range is 17 to 19.2 million tickets.

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Other:

Remember my results are "simulated" to make the"P/(L)" figures "fair and simple", I am planning to have a small "real money" bet at the better odds, about an extra 2.2% of bank-roll for the MM, and about an extra 1.5% of "bank roll" for PB (so if you had your bet early like me, then you can probably do a similar thing, if you want)

Happy New Year, everyone

Powerball - No Jackpot Winner 01/01/2020 is currently -900 (has been -900 , -800, and now back to -900)
Mega Millions - No Jackpot Winner 01/03/2020 is currently -2000

Note: I would probably put up 9.5 to 11 million as a range for the next MM (since I am using a "wait and see" approach, I will post a proper betting summary closer to the draw date)

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For the Mega Millions draw on the 12/31/19, I put 1,548 down to win 72.

Opening Bal: 26,295
Finishing Bal: 26,367
P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: 367
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 96.16...%
Odds Taken: -2150
Actual EV: 0.63...%
Tickets Sold***: 11,839,862
*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm

For the Powerball draw on the 01/01/20, I put 2,979 down to win 331.

Opening Bal: 26,367
Finishing Bal: 26,698
P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: 698
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 93.28...%
Odds Taken: -900
Actual EV: 3.64...%
Tickets Sold***: 20,319,594
*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm

Let's look at the drawing for 1/3

Date: Jan 3
Lottery: Mega Millions
Jackpot: 60M
Estimated sales: 10.16M
Probability of winner: 3.3%
Probability no winner: 96.7%
Fair line no winner: -2930
5 Dimes line: -2000
Player advantage: 1.5%
Wiz bet: $200 to win $10

Betting Summary:

Game: Powerball (PB)
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 01/04/2020"
Odds: -900
Estimated Chance: 92.74...% (based on an estimate of 22*** million tickets sold)
Estimated EV: +3.05...%
Bet Amount (%): ~ 9.2% of bank roll (about 1/3 Kelly)
Bet Amount ($): $2,448
When will I have a bet: now^^^

***: My "early" range is 19 to 22 million tickets.

^^^: The odds changes for the PB could "repeat what they did last time" ( went -900 >>> -800 >>> -900, last time) but I think 3% estimated EV is good enough, so that is why I am having my whole bet now.

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Other:
Going to "wait and see" with the Mega Millions (MM) so I will put up a bet summary tomorrow, if I bet.

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Odds ("openers and movements"):
MM: -2000 and went to -2150 (currently -2150)
PB: -900

Note: I am usually asleep when the odds are first put up, so these could be different from your observations.

Date: Jan 4
Lottery: PowerBall
Jackpot: 237M
Estimated sales: 18.31M
Probability of winner: 6.69%
Probability no winner: 93.31%
Fair line no winner: -1395
5 Dimes line: -900
Player advantage: 3.68%
Wiz bet: $450 to win $50.

Odds changes for the "No Jackpot Winner":
Mega Millions: Opened -2000, went to -2150, and is currently -2150
Powerball: Opened -900, went to -1250, and is currently -1250

Note: I am usually asleep when the odds are first put up and when the odds changes occur, so these could be different from your observations.

Note 2: I just had a "small bet" on the MM @ -2150, so I will not be posting a "bet summary" for this one (it also won't be included in my "simulated results P/(L) figure").

For the Mega Millions draw on the 01/03/20, the jackpot was not hit.

Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 96.83...%
Odds Observed: -2000 and -2150
Actual EV: 1.67...% (if you took -2000) and 1.33...% (if you took -2150)
Tickets Sold***: 9,728,712
*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm

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Other:

For the Powerball on the 01/04/20, my "late" estimated range is 19.6 to 21.6 million tickets.

Betting Summary

Game: Mega Millions
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 01/07/2020"
Odds: -2000
Estimated Chance: 96.35...% (based on an estimate of 11.25^^^ million tickets sold)
Estimated EV: +1.16...%
Bet Amount (%): ~ 7.8% of bank roll (about 1/3 Kelly)
Bet Amount if "PB bet Loses" ($): $1,900 (By use of "If-bet" feature)
Bet Amount if "PB bet Wins" ($): $2,100 (By use of "If-bet" feature)
When will I have a bet: now

^^^: Estimated range between 9.25 and 11.25 million tickets.

----
Odds and their changes (if any) for the "No Jackpot Winner":

Powerball: Went -900 >>>> -1250 >>> -1100
Mega Millions: Opened -2000

For the Powerball draw on the 01/04/20, I put 2,448 down to win 272.

Opening Bal: 26,698
Finishing Bal: 26,970
P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: 698
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 92.94...%
Odds Taken: -900
Actual EV: 3.27...%
Tickets Sold***: 21,381,004
*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm

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Other:

My two "older" bets to do with PB and MM have not been graded^^^ yet, and was wondering if anyone else was in the same situation? (this is for the draws on the 01/01/20, and the 01/03/20)

^^^: This is a "novelty/specialty" type of bet that has to be graded manually, so this type of delay can happen and has happened to me before (so it is nothing to worry about)

If it has happened to you, and you are in a hurry to make a withdrawal, you can contact the sports book / casino using live help, to speed up the grading (if you want).

Also, if you don't want to contact live help, you can use the "IF/RIF bet" feature that i have explained about before, to get the next bet on.

Lastly, I have written a post before, that they sometimes "grade novelty bets slowly###", so this is just a reminder

###: common/standard bets are usually graded pretty fast, eg NFL lines and totals etc.

Betting Summary:

Game: Powerball (PB)
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 01/08/2020"
Odds: -1000
Estimated Chance: 92.27...% (based on an estimate of 23.5*** million tickets sold)
Estimated EV: +1.49...%
Bet Amount (%): ~ 5% of bank roll (about 1/3 Kelly)
Bet Amount if "MM bet Loses" ($): $1,250
Bet Amount if "MM bet Wins" ($): $1,350 (By use of "If-bet" feature)
When will I have a bet: now

***: My "early" range is 20.5 to 23.5 million tickets.

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Other:

The sports book graded my previous bet(s) at about 1:15am on the 1/5/20 (EST).

Let's look at the drawings for 1/7 and 1/8

Date: Jan 7
Lottery: Mega Millions
Jackpot: 69M
Estimated sales: 10.43M
Probability of winner: 3.39%
Probability no winner: 96.61%
Fair line no winner: -2850
5 Dimes line: -2000
Player advantage: 1.44%
Wiz bet: $300 to win $15

Date: Jan 8
Lottery: PowerBall
Jackpot: 258M
Estimated sales: 21.41M
Probability of winner: 7.07%
Probability no winner: 92.93%
Fair line no winner: -1314
5 Dimes line: -1000
Player advantage: 2.22%
Wiz bet: $500 to win $50.