No Jackpot Winner Powerball Prop Bet

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December 4th, 2019 at 7:16:11 PM permalink

Quote: Wizard
How do you know when to switch? I pretty much just eyeballed it, but it was a judgement call.

I was just fiddling around with the MM calculator at the time, and through "trial and error" I found the amount below is definitely wrong:

The calculator says that a 401m jackpot = 5.64m tickets (1.85% probability of winners)

For comparison the calculator says a 400m jackpot = 26.89m tickets (8.5% probability of winners).

For whole numbers, I think 440m jackpot for the Mega Millions part of the calculator is the most logical switching*** point,

***: plugging ~ 439.9 million into a spreadsheet gets close to the same amount of tickets using either one of your formulas (the estimated tickets should be about 30.15m for both MM formulas, if I did it right).

Again, there are no errors in the formulas, I just think the calculator is using the wrong switching point

----
Update (about 745 pm)

"Eyeballing" the graphs in the link below, I would have guessed around 400 million as the switching point as well

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/31799-no-jackpot-winner-powerball-prop-bet/9/#post748769

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Update 2 (about 815 pm)

Just started focusing on the Power Ball calculator, and I think the correct^^^ switching point is below

Switch from Low to Medium jackpot formula somewhere between 181m and 182m jackpot,

^^^: if this is not the most correct switching point, it is at least the most logical to me, because it is the point where the "estimated tickets" are almost the same.

-----
Update 3 (about 9 pm)

For PB, switch from Medium to High jackpot formula somewhere between 576m and 577m

Note: this is so close to your current switch point (575m) that I don't know if it is worth the extra work to change it.

Please correct me if I am wrong for any of the Power Ball switching points, but I think I am closer to being correct for the Mega Millions switching point.

Last edited by: ksdjdj on Dec 4, 2019

Wizard
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December 4th, 2019 at 9:12:28 PM permalink

Quote: Wizard
I see the odds dropped to -1135 on the PowerBall tonight.

No jackpot probability = 95.07%
Fair line = -1928
Player advantage = 3.36%

I think I'll throw a little more on it.

No jackpot, ka-ching!

"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)

ksdjdj

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December 4th, 2019 at 9:32:38 PM permalink

Note: Remember I am using simulated results from now on

For the Powerball draw on the 12/04/19, I put 3,000 down to win 250.

Opening Bal: 25,240
Finishing Bal: 25,490
P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: (510)
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): ??? 95.81...%
Odds Taken: -1200
Actual EV: ??? 3.79...%
Tickets Sold***: ??? 12,495,867
*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm

Will update "???" when I have the actual sales data.

----
Other info:

After a draw, you can estimate how many tickets were sold based on the "number of winners", for this PB draw see below:

Go to the link here >>> https://www.usamega.com/powerball-drawing.asp?d=12/4/2019
>>> then add up all the "winners" which is 480,774 (incl California) >>>> then multiply that number by 24.87^^^

^^^: the odds of winning any prize is 1/24.87, that is why i used that number.

from the above, we can estimate about 11.95 million tickets were sold in this draw.

Last edited by: ksdjdj on Dec 4, 2019

ksdjdj

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December 5th, 2019 at 12:12:11 PM permalink

Quote: ksdjdj
(Snip) Will I have a bet: Yes, but not yet, as I think there is a very high chance that the odds on offer will get bigger, closer to the draw.

Welp, I picked the wrong time to bet for the Mega Millions draw on the 12/06/19, the odds have gone from -700 to -850, see MM and PB bet summaries below:

----
Game: Mega Millions
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 12/06/19"
Odds: -850
Estimated Chance: 93.41...% (based on an estimate of 20.6 million tickets sold)
Estimated EV: +4.40...%
Bet Amount: 12.5% of bank roll (about 1/3 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: Now

----
Game: Powerball
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 12/07/19"
Odds: -1050
Estimated Chance: 94.99...% (based on an estimate of 15 million tickets sold)
Estimated EV: +4.04...%
Bet Amount: ~ 14.2% of bank roll (about 1/3 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: Now

----
Other info:

I am going to go back to basics for a little while by having my bet as soon as I notice that 5d has put up some good +EV odds.

Note: I have been wrong more often lately with the odds changes (I don't think 5d is following this thread carefully/at all, but maybe there are enough "new" punters betting on this to make the odds change against the OLD "normal betting trend"?).

Also, personally I prefer using the Wiz's calculator at the moment, but I will go back to putting up a "range" of tickets for "bigger"*** draws

***: I prefer to use a range of tickets for the bigger draws because sometimes you can be way off with a "single" estimate eg:
For Mega Millions,on the 01/01/19 ticket sales were 48,286,127 (jackpot $425m).
For comparison, between the 05/28/19 and the 06/07/19 Mega Million ticket sales were between 23,629,189 and 41,631,077 (jackpots between $418m and $530m)

Note: The "blow-up" of ticket sales for the "new years" draw was possibly due to "holiday season news hype" and the fact that less people are working at that time of year (in other words, they have more time to notice and think "maybe I could be the winner of the big jackpot" ?)

FYI: If I was doing things the old/long way , below are the ticket ranges I would get for the next MM and PB draws:

MM: Most likely between 17.5m and 20.5m tickets
PB: Most likely between 13.1m and 15.1m tickets

Note: With these estimates I am trying to be on or "slightly over" the actual tickets sales (since I am betting on the "no winner"^^^)

^^^: If the "yes, there is a jackpot winner" odds were the ones with the +EV, I would probably shift my estimate ranges to the ones below ( for this hypothetical scenario I would aim for my estimates to be on or "slightly under" the actual sales)

MM: 16.5m to 19.5m, and PB: 12.1m to 14.1m (if the "yes" side ever had potential +EV odds on offer)

Last edited by: ksdjdj on Dec 5, 2019

Romes

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December 5th, 2019 at 1:24:08 PM permalink

I for some reason very much enjoy watching this thread and you guys pick apart the lotto drawings =P. Do any other sites besides 5dimes have betting on the lotto?

Playing it correctly means you've already won.

ksdjdj

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December 5th, 2019 at 1:28:37 PM permalink

Quote: Romes
(snip) Do any other sites besides 5dimes have betting on the lotto?

Not that I know of, but if anyone finds another one that does it for MM and PB, it would be great if you could PM me or post it on this thread.

---
Update (about 330 pm)

Quote: ksdjdj
(snip)
Game: Mega Millions
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 12/06/19"
Odds: -850
Estimated Chance: 93.41...% (based on an estimate of 20.6 million tickets sold)
Estimated EV: +4.40...%
Bet Amount: 12.5% of bank roll (about 1/3 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: Now

----
Game: Powerball
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 12/07/19"
Odds: -1050
Estimated Chance: 94.99...% (based on an estimate of 15 million tickets sold)
Estimated EV: +4.04...%
Bet Amount: ~ 14.2% of bank roll (about 1/3 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: Now
(snip)

Also, with 5dimes you can "parlay" the above bets together and get about +8.63%, for the combined EV, if you wanted to.

But is it better for "average bank-roll growth" to combine the bet into a "parlay" or leave it as two "single bets", when using the same "Kelly betting strategy" for both types of bets? (see working out below)

1) Estimated "average bank roll growth" for two "single bets"
= "Bet amount for MM bet" x "Estimated MM EV" + "Bet amount for PB bet" x "Estimated PB EV"
= (12.49149...% x 4.40876...%) + (14.15167...% x 4.0433...%)
= 0.55072...% + 0.57219...%
= 1.12291...%

2) Estimated "average bank roll growth" when combining the two bets into a "parlay". (see " ^^^" for what the "bet summary" would look like for a "parlay" for the next two draws)
= "Bet amount for Parlay bet" x "Estimated Parlay EV"
= 12.83622...% x 8.63035...%
= 1.10781...%

^^^: "Parlay Bet Summary"
Game: Mega Millions + Powerball
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Bet Type: Two - game "parlay"
Props: "No Jackpot Winner" on both the "12/06/19" and the ""12/07/19""
Combined Odds: - 446.25
Combined Estimated Chance: 88.74...%
Combined Estimated EV: +8.63...%
Bet Amount: ~ 12.8% of bank roll (about 1/3 Kelly)

In summary:

1) has an estimated "average bank roll growth" of about 1.123% and
2) has an estimated "average bank roll growth" of about 1.108%

As you can see from 1) and 2) above, combining the bets into a "parlay" is NOT the best option when betting "1/3 Kelly", if your goal is to "have the bigger average bank roll growth".

Note: The "average ... growth" difference is so small, that if you prefer getting "bigger odds"/ and / or risking a "smaller % of your bank roll", then you are not "losing out much at all" by betting on a "parlay" (at least for the next MM and PB draws).

Also note: If you don't know what I mean by "average bank roll growth", then see example below:

Example: Say if you had a current bank roll of $10,000, and your estimated "average bank roll growth" was 1% for the next bet you had, then you would expect to increase your bank roll by $100

Note; this would be true/"close to true" for every situation you had $10,000 as your current bank roll and 1% as your estimated "average bank roll growth" in the "long-run", in reality the short to medium-term growth would NOT be like this, because each bet can only either be resolved as a win or a loss.

----
Only quickly checked the math because I have to go out (please tell me if any of the math is NOT correct, thanks).

Last edited by: ksdjdj on Dec 5, 2019

ksdjdj

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December 6th, 2019 at 11:31:05 AM permalink

Quote: Romes
(snip)Do any other sites besides 5dimes have betting on the lotto?

Part 2:
I still can't find any other site that have betting on the lotto^^^, but here is a link to another 5dimesgroup casino/book,
^^^: notice that the odds are the same and they are part of the same "group of casinos" (so that is why I still think you are "betting with 5d" in my opinion, even though the website has a different name)
https://www.sportbet.com/lines/Other-Sports/Lotto/

Note: I personally like the page layout/"colors used" with sportbet more than 5d (but I have been betting with 5d longer, so that is why I keep going back to them).

Below is the link I used to find the above site:
https://www.onlinecasinodollar.com/casino-owner/5dimes-group.html

Very Important: I know you didn't ask about this, but don't try to get around the bet limits by "stacking"*** your bets at both 5d and sportbet, as I tried to do this in 2013, when the "lotto bets" were only "$500 down" or "to win $500".
I received a very stern warning for doing/attempting to do the above. I think they said it was grounds for them to terminate my account(s), if they felt like doing so (lucky for me they didn't).
***: I don't know if they still use this term, but in this case it means putting down the "max bet" or "near max bet" at both books, to try and get around the betting limits.

----
Parlays (continued from previous post):

I did some more testing of parlay bets, and can fairly confidently say it is never^*^ as good a bet from a "average bank roll growth" point of view when compared to single bets (when using the same "Kelly betting" strategy for both types of bets)

^*^: However, it could be a good way to get around the betting limits (I can't confirm if it works or not, but see hypothetical scenario below)

Scenario:

Your current bank roll is $205,000 , also you estimate the "no lotto winner" for the next two draws as 60% chance each, and the odds they are offering for both draws is +100.

In the above scenario, you would get down your normal bet of $5,000 on each "single bet" @ odds of +100 each, and you would also attempt to get down another $5,000 by "parlaying" the two lotto bets together, @ odds of +300.

If you get all the bets down, your EV in $'s is: $4,200

For the two single bets it would be:
(("estimated win chance" x "odds")-100%) x "bet in $'s"
= ((60% x 2.00) -100%) x $10,000 (as there are 2 single bets of $5,000, with the same odds and "estimated" chances).
= 20% x $10,000 = $2,000

For the parlay bet it would be:
(("estimated win chances" x "odds")-100%) x "bet in $'s"
= ((60% x 60% x 4.00) -100%) x $5,000
= 44% x $5,000 = $2,200

So, in the above hypothetical you would expect to have a combined EV of $4,200

Note: In this scenario the sports book has $5,000 betting limit for each bet, and you are betting about "1/6 Kelly*^* " for each bet.

*^*: I went from "1/3 kelly" to "1/6 kelly" in this scenario, because the single bets are "related" to the parlay bets.

Note: Again, i haven't tried this myself, but anyone with enough bank could give it a go, to see if they allow### it.

###: if they don't allow it straight away, you can still have another bet after about 5 to 20 minutes has past (usually at slightly reduced odds, though).

-----
Above hasn't been checked carefully, but the math looks right to me.

Last edited by: ksdjdj on Dec 6, 2019

ksdjdj

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December 7th, 2019 at 12:42:26 PM permalink

For the Mega Millions draw on the 12/06/19, I put 3,187.50 down to win 375.

Opening Bal: 25,490
Finishing Bal: 25,865
P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: (135)
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 93.80...%
Odds Taken: -850
Actual EV: 4.83...%
Tickets Sold***: 19,363,783
*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm

---
Other info:

For the MM draw on the 12/06/19, the estimated tickets sales using the link here >>>> https://wizardofodds.com/games/lottery/ticket-sales-calculator/ >>> were only out by 13,783 tickets, in other words out by about 1/1405 (so very close)

----
Betting summaries:

Game: Powerball
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 12/07/19"
Odds: -1050
Estimated Chance: 94.99...% (based on an estimate of 15 million tickets sold)
Estimated EV: +4.04...%
Bet Amount: ~ 14.2% of bank roll (about 1/3 Kelly)
Note: already had my bet earlier at the above odds (odds still available at the time of this post).

----
Game: Mega Millions
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 12/10/19"
Odds: -700
Estimated Chance: 93.28...% (based on an estimate of 21.03^^^ million tickets sold)
Estimated EV: +6.61...%
Bet Amount: ~ 15.4% of bank roll (about 1/3 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: Now

^^^: I am currently using >>>https://wizardofodds.com/games/lottery/ticket-sales-calculator/ <<< to work out an estimate, as I think the Jackpot is still "small" enough to use one method to estimate ticket sales.
Note: I would probably put up 18.5 to 22 million tickets as the estimated range for the next MM draw, if I was doing it the old way.

----
Update (about 130 pm)
Here are the theoretical "number of tickets sold" break-even points for the next two draws (using the current "No Jackpot Winner" odds)

For Mega Millions, about 40.4 million tickets, and
for the Powerball, about 26.6 million tickets have to be sold^*^.
^*^: if you want to find out the actual "break-even point", then I think the link below explains the formula well:
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/31799-no-jackpot-winner-powerball-prop-bet/4/#post722541

Note: These "break-even point" figures, would be most accurate if all the tickets were bought as "random" picks.

Also, I won't be putting up these figures every time I post about a new draw, I will probably just put them up for the "big"*^* draws from now on.
*^*: $400 million + draws.

Last edited by: ksdjdj on Dec 7, 2019

ksdjdj

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December 7th, 2019 at 11:34:26 PM permalink

For the Powerball draw on the 12/07/19, I put 3,675 down to win 350.

Opening Bal: 25,865
Finishing Bal: 26,215
P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: 215
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 95.25...%
Odds Taken: -1050
Actual EV: 4.33...%
Tickets Sold***: 14,192,913
*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm

-----
Other info:

Odds for the next PB are not up at the time of this post, if they put up odds I will probably use something around 15.58^^^ million tickets as the estimate for the next PB draw
^^^: used link here >>> https://wizardofodds.com/games/lottery/ticket-sales-calculator/ <<<<
and 140 for "Jackpot size (in millions)"
Odds are still the same for the next MM draw (-700 for no jackpot winner).

ksdjdj

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December 8th, 2019 at 11:53:08 AM permalink

Betting summaries:

Game: Mega Millions
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 12/10/19"
Odds: -700
Estimated Chance: 93.28...% (based on an estimate of 21.03 million tickets sold)
Estimated EV: +6.61...%
Bet Amount: ~ 15.4% of bank roll (about 1/3 Kelly)
Note: already had my bet earlier at the above odds (odds still available at the time of this post).

----
Game: Powerball
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 12/11/19"
Odds: -1000
Estimated Chance: 94.83...% (based on an estimate of 15.5*** million tickets sold)
Estimated EV: +4.31...%
Bet Amount: ~ 14.4% of bank roll (about 1/3 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: Now

*** : used the link here >>> https://wizardofodds.com/games/lottery/ticket-sales-calculator/ <<<<
to help work out an estimate again, you should get 15.58 for "Tickets sold (in millions): ", since the next PB has a 140 m jackpot.

DRich

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December 8th, 2019 at 2:54:54 PM permalink

I wish they would put up odds that I win the Powerball on the next draw. I could probably get some +EV there.

At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.

ksdjdj

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December 11th, 2019 at 11:28:57 AM permalink

For the Mega Millions draw on the 12/10/19, I put 4,025 down to win 575.

Opening Bal: 26,215
Finishing Bal: 26,790
P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: 790
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 92.75...%
Odds Taken: -700
Actual EV: 6.00...%
Tickets Sold***: 22,767,020
*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm

-----
Other Info:

No odds are up for the next Mega Millions, so I will not be putting up a betting summary about it yet.
Use the link here >>> https://wizardofodds.com/games/lottery/ticket-sales-calculator/ <<<
if I don't put up a bet summary for the next MM^^^
^^^: I am away from my PC Thursday around 2pm to Saturday morning (US Time)
Note: my early ticket estimate would probably be 22 to 26 million for the next MM.

-----
Betting Summary (update):

Game: Powerball
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 12/11/19"
Odds: -1100
Estimated Chance: 94.83...% (based on an estimate of 15.5*** million tickets sold)
Estimated EV: +3.45...%
Bet Amount: ~ 12.7% of bank roll (about 1/3 Kelly)
Note: I have already had my bet a few days ago at -1000, but it is still good value at -1100.

Last edited by: ksdjdj on Dec 11, 2019

SOOPOO

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December 11th, 2019 at 1:55:31 PM permalink

Are you reporting US dollars?

If so, do you have tens of thousands of US dollars on account at this online book?

You have more trust than I would.....

ksdjdj

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December 11th, 2019 at 2:20:31 PM permalink

Quote: SOOPOO
Are you reporting US dollars? (snip)

Yes, 5d only let me bet in US $ at the moment.

Quote:
(snip) If so, do you have tens of thousands of US dollars on account at this online book? (snip)

Not really, I have around $10k in the 5d account and the rest is in an account that can be converted to bitcoin and then sent quickly.

-----
They have just put up MM odds, see bet summary below:

Game: Mega Millions
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 12/13/19"
Odds: -750
Estimated Chance: 91.91...% (based on an estimate of 25.5 million tickets sold)
Estimated EV: +4.17...%
Bet Amount: ~ 10.4% of bank roll (about 1/3 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: Now

ksdjdj

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December 12th, 2019 at 1:54:58 PM permalink

For the Powerball draw on the 12/11/19, I put 3,850 down to win 385.

Opening Bal: 26,790
Finishing Bal: 27,175
P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: 1,175
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 95.57...%
Odds Taken: -1000
Actual EV: 5.12...%
Tickets Sold***: 13,237,112
*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm

----
Betting Summaries:

Game: Mega Millions
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 12/13/19"
Odds: -750
Estimated Chance: 91.91...% (based on an estimate of 25.5 million tickets sold)
Estimated EV: +4.17...%
Bet Amount: ~ 10.4% of bank roll (about 1/3 Kelly)
Note(s): Already had my bet and the odds haven't changed.

----
Game: Powerball
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 12/14/19"
Odds: -1000
Estimated Chance: 94.67...% (based on an estimate of 16 million tickets sold)
Estimated EV: +4.13...%
Bet Amount: ~ 13.8% of bank roll (about 1/3 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: Now

----
Other Info:

Here are my ticket estimate ranges for:
MM: 22 to 26 million
PB: 13.5 to 16.5 million

The odds seem to be "getting worse", so if that trend continues, I may not be posting^^^ for a while.
^^^: If the EV is less than 1.5%, I will probably stop betting/posting.

I am away for the next two days, so I will not be posting any updates until I get back.

Wizard
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December 13th, 2019 at 11:08:41 AM permalink

I'm back from a week in New York. I tried to bet from there, but 5dimes didn't let me log in from an unknown computer and I didn't fuss with the process to override it.

At one point a friend of mine purchased one ticket for each lottery. I, of course, gave her the lecture of what a terrible bet it was. As always, with lottery players, no amount of logic or math will change their mind.

Anyway, let's look at the upcoming drawings:

Lottery: Mega Millions
Drawing: Dec 13
Jackpot: $340M
Probability somebody wins: 7.21%
Fair line no winner: -1287
5 Dimes line: -750
Player advantage: 7.07%
My bet: $750 to win $100

Lottery: PowerBall
Drawing: Dec 14
Jackpot: $150M
Probability somebody wins: 5.33%
Probability nobody wins: 94.67%
Fair line no winner: -1776
5 Dimes line: -1000
Player advantage: 4.14%
My bet: $500 to win $50

Last edited by: Wizard on Dec 13, 2019

"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)

ksdjdj

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December 14th, 2019 at 3:11:18 AM permalink

For the Mega Millions draw on the 12/13/19, I put 2,812.5 down to win 375.

Opening Bal: 27,175
Finishing Bal: 27,550
P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: 1,550
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 91.77...%
Odds Taken: -750
Actual EV: 4.01...%
Tickets Sold***: 25,971,279
*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm

----
Other:

If you haven't had a bet yet, see the Powerball section in the link here >>> https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/31799-no-jackpot-winner-powerball-prop-bet/12/#post749899 <<< , as the odds are still -1000, at the time of this post.

Also, there are currently no odds up yet for the next MM, but I would probably put up somewhere between 23 and 27 million tickets as a very quick estimate (I will have a proper look later, if/when they put the odds up).

Note: as we are getting 'bigger and bigger' jackpots, and getting 'closer and closer' to Christmas and New Years, the Wiz and I are possibly going to have 'more and more' noticeable differences in our estimates. But since we are not competing with each other, as long as we are getting "+ EV on the bet", it doesn't really matter who is closer to the "actual ticket sales".

Also Note: If the MM jackpot hasn't been won by New Years Eve, then there is a chance I won't bet on the draws around that time because of a 'tickets sale 'bump', see hypothetical below

Hypothetical:

If the MM draw on (or around) the 12/31/19 had the same jackpot as the one on the 12/17/19 , I would probably use 33 to 41 million tickets as the estimate.

Note: in general, I would probably bump the "rest of the year/normal estimate" by about 50%, when looking at the "Christmas and NY" draws (if the jackpot hasn't been won by then).

Last edited by: ksdjdj on Dec 14, 2019

Wizard
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December 14th, 2019 at 7:19:35 AM permalink

Quote: Wizard

Lottery: Mega Millions
Drawing: Dec 13
Jackpot: $340M
Probability somebody wins: 7.21%
Fair line no winner: -1287
5 Dimes line: -750
Player advantage: 7.07%
My bet: $750 to win $100

Quote: ksdjdj
For the Mega Millions draw on the 12/13/19, I put 2,812.5 down to win 375.

Opening Bal: 27,175
Finishing Bal: 27,550
P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: 1,550
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 91.77...%
Odds Taken: -750
Actual EV: 4.01...%
Tickets Sold***: 25,971,279
*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm

As a reminder (largely to myself), the Mega Millions jackpot probability is 1 in 1 in 302575350.

As quoted above, for the 340M jackpot, my calculator estimated 22.65 million in ticket sales. Your actual sales of almost 26 million is duly noted. Are you suggesting this is part of the "Christmas bump," to give it a term? You may be right, but it also may just be random variation. Can you provide more evidence that previous sales have been higher than expected around Christmas?

To get an estimate of 26M in ticket sales, I need to put in a jackpot of 388M into the calculator, an increase of 14.12%. With 26M in sales, the fair line on the no drops to -1115. At the offered -750 odds, it was still a good bet.

"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)

Rigondeaux

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December 14th, 2019 at 7:39:22 AM permalink

Quote: Wizard
I'm back from a week in New York. I tried to bet from there, but 5dimes didn't let me log in from an unknown computer and I didn't fuss with the process to override it.

At one point a friend of mine purchased one ticket for each lottery. I, of course, gave her the lecture of what a terrible bet it was. As always, with lottery players, no amount of logic or math will change their mind.

This has been discussed before, but as an economist*, I think this is one of the best bets out there.

Your ev per dollar spent is low. But your consumption value per dollar lost is much higher than it is with other forms of gambling, if you buy just one or a few tickets. You get to dream, talk about it and anticipate for a week or so for a few dollars.

Losing a few dollars in most other forms of gambling takes minutes and almost nobody goes to a casino and plays 4 spins or 9 hands and goes home.

*someone who studied econ in college and doesn't remember any of it.

Wizard
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December 14th, 2019 at 10:26:11 AM permalink

Quote: Rigondeaux
This has been discussed before, but as an economist*, I think this is one of the best bets out there.

Your ev per dollar spent is low. But your consumption value per dollar lost is much higher than it is with other forms of gambling, if you buy just one or a few tickets. You get to dream, talk about it and anticipate for a week or so for a few dollars.

Losing a few dollars in most other forms of gambling takes minutes and almost nobody goes to a casino and plays 4 spins or 9 hands and goes home.

*someone who studied econ in college and doesn't remember any of it.

I have a degree in math and economics and I stand by what I said. However, I will grant you my friend who bought the two tickets spoke at length about what she would buy with $350 million. I'll grant you that in her case, there would have been some utility in the dream. However, I am a cold walking calculator with no heart. From my vantage point, lottery tickets are like a donation to the government and I will not stop whistling that tune.

"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)

michael99000

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December 14th, 2019 at 10:35:03 AM permalink

Quote: Wizard
I have a degree in math and economics and I stand by what I said. However, I will grant you my friend who bought the two tickets spoke at length about what she would buy with $350 million. I'll grant you that in her case, there would have been some utility in the dream. However, I am a cold walking calculator with no heart. From my vantage point, lottery tickets are like a donation to the government and I will not stop whistling that tune.

Do you play the powerball when the jackpot exceeds $292 million? *

Edit: when your take home after taxes is greater than 292 million

Just thinking , if you always stick to the math, then you�d be compelled to bet when the numbers say so

unJon

unJon

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December 14th, 2019 at 11:23:06 AM permalink

Quote: michael99000
Do you play the powerball when the jackpot exceeds $292 million? *

Edit: when your take home after taxes is greater than 292 million

Just thinking , if you always stick to the math, then you�d be compelled to bet when the numbers say so

It�s an interesting question of at what point the lotto becomes +EV. It�s high because of the chance of splits. If the Wiz�s formula for large jackpot number of tickets holds, there would be a crossover point.

The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.

ksdjdj

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December 14th, 2019 at 2:36:13 PM permalink

Quote: unJon
It�s an interesting question of at what point the lotto becomes +EV. It�s high because of the chance of splits. If the Wiz�s formula for large jackpot number of tickets holds, there would be a crossover point.

To further explain what unJon meant by "splits", here are some examples of "x number of Winners".
MM = Mega Millions and PB = Powerball

Chance of 1 winning ticket:
MM = 1/302,575,350
PB = 1/292,201,338

Draw	Jackpot	Tickets***	0 Winners	1 Winner	2 Winners	3 Winners	4 Winners
MM	300 million	20200000	93.54195%	6.24488%	0.20845%	0.00464%	0.00008%
MM	1500 million	354900000	30.94586%	36.29736%	21.28715%	8.32278%	2.44051%
PB	300 million	29600000	90.36619%	9.15410%	0.46366%	0.01566%	0.00040%
PB	1500 million	584870000	13.51190%	27.04541%	27.06704%	18.05912%	9.03678%

***: "tickets" figures obtained from >>>> https://wizardofodds.com/games/lottery/ticket-sales-calculator/ >>>> then see "Tickets sold (in millions):"

Note 1: i have never worked the probabilities out this way before, so please check if the math is correct.
Note 2: I only went to "4 winners" in the table, so if you add up the "figures in each row" they will not = 100%, as there can be 5, 6, 7.... winners, and in theory all the way up to "however many tickets are sold in the draw" number of winners (If i wanted to do a "more complete table", I would probably go all the way up to a maximum of 10 winners).
Note 3: The figures I used in the above table assumed all tickets were bought randomly.

----
Extra info:

This is all "wishful thinking" because in reality there are: taxes, "taking a reduced lump-sum now" vs "taking the annuity and future value of money considerations (inflation, reduced buying power etc)" and possibly other things I didn't think of.

Here are some useful links of why buying a ticket is never a "good bet" from an EV point of view:
https://wizardofodds.com/games/lottery/mega-millions/
https://wizardofodds.com/games/lottery/powerball/
https://www.businessinsider.com/powerball-jackpot-450-million-expected-value-2019-3/?r=AU&IR=T

Last edited by: ksdjdj on Dec 14, 2019

michael99000

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December 14th, 2019 at 4:12:25 PM permalink

Quote: ksdjdj
To further explain what unJon meant by "splits", here are some examples of "x number of Winners".
MM = Mega Millions and PB = Powerball

Chance of 1 winning ticket:
MM = 1/302,575,350
PB = 1/292,201,338

Draw Jackpot Tickets***
0 Winners 1 Winner 2 Winners 3 Winners 4 Winners

MM 300 million 20200000 93.54195% 6.24488% 0.20845% 0.00464% 0.00008%

MM 1500 million 354900000 30.94586% 36.29736% 21.28715% 8.32278% 2.44051%

PB 300 million 29600000 90.36619% 9.15410% 0.46366% 0.01566% 0.00040%

PB 1500 million 584870000 13.51190% 27.04541% 27.06704% 18.05912% 9.03678%

***: "tickets" figures obtained from >>>> https://wizardofodds.com/games/lottery/ticket-sales-calculator/ >>>> then see "Tickets sold (in millions):"

Note 1: i have never worked the probabilities out this way before, so please check if the math is correct.
Note 2: I only went to "4 winners" in the table, so if you add up the "figures in each row" they will not = 100%, as there can be 5, 6, 7.... winners, and in theory all the way up to "however many tickets are sold in the draw" number of winners (If i wanted to do a "more complete table", I would probably go all the way up to a maximum of 10 winners).
Note 3: The figures I used in the above table assumed all tickets were bought randomly.

----
Extra info:

This is all "wishful thinking" because in reality there are: taxes, "taking a reduced lump-sum now" vs "taking the annuity and future value of money considerations (inflation, reduced buying power etc)" and possibly other things I didn't think of.

Here are some useful links of why buying a ticket is never a "good bet" from an EV point of view:
https://wizardofodds.com/games/lottery/mega-millions/
https://wizardofodds.com/games/lottery/powerball/
https://www.businessinsider.com/powerball-jackpot-450-million-expected-value-2019-3/?r=AU&IR=T

I�ve always wondered , since people like to play birthdays or their kids ages , is there more likely to be a winner when all the winning numbers are 31 or below.

unJon

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December 14th, 2019 at 4:19:01 PM permalink

Quote: michael99000
Quote: ksdjdj
To further explain what unJon meant by "splits", here are some examples of "x number of Winners".
MM = Mega Millions and PB = Powerball

Chance of 1 winning ticket:
MM = 1/302,575,350
PB = 1/292,201,338

Draw Jackpot Tickets***
0 Winners 1 Winner 2 Winners 3 Winners 4 Winners

MM 300 million 20200000 93.54195% 6.24488% 0.20845% 0.00464% 0.00008%

MM 1500 million 354900000 30.94586% 36.29736% 21.28715% 8.32278% 2.44051%

PB 300 million 29600000 90.36619% 9.15410% 0.46366% 0.01566% 0.00040%

PB 1500 million 584870000 13.51190% 27.04541% 27.06704% 18.05912% 9.03678%

***: "tickets" figures obtained from >>>> https://wizardofodds.com/games/lottery/ticket-sales-calculator/ >>>> then see "Tickets sold (in millions):"

Note 1: i have never worked the probabilities out this way before, so please check if the math is correct.
Note 2: I only went to "4 winners" in the table, so if you add up the "figures in each row" they will not = 100%, as there can be 5, 6, 7.... winners, and in theory all the way up to "however many tickets are sold in the draw" number of winners (If i wanted to do a "more complete table", I would probably go all the way up to a maximum of 10 winners).
Note 3: The figures I used in the above table assumed all tickets were bought randomly.

----
Extra info:

This is all "wishful thinking" because in reality there are: taxes, "taking a reduced lump-sum now" vs "taking the annuity and future value of money considerations (inflation, reduced buying power etc)" and possibly other things I didn't think of.

Here are some useful links of why buying a ticket is never a "good bet" from an EV point of view:
https://wizardofodds.com/games/lottery/mega-millions/
https://wizardofodds.com/games/lottery/powerball/
https://www.businessinsider.com/powerball-jackpot-450-million-expected-value-2019-3/?r=AU&IR=T

I�ve always wondered , since people like to play birthdays or their kids ages , is there more likely to be a winner when all the winning numbers are 31 or below.

For sure.

The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.

Rigondeaux

Threads: 30
Posts: 2549

Joined: Aug 18, 2014

December 14th, 2019 at 5:12:29 PM permalink

Quote: ksdjdj
To further explain what unJon meant by "splits", here are some examples of "x number of Winners".
MM = Mega Millions and PB = Powerball

Chance of 1 winning ticket:
MM = 1/302,575,350
PB = 1/292,201,338

Draw Jackpot Tickets***
0 Winners 1 Winner 2 Winners 3 Winners 4 Winners

MM 300 million 20200000 93.54195% 6.24488% 0.20845% 0.00464% 0.00008%

MM 1500 million 354900000 30.94586% 36.29736% 21.28715% 8.32278% 2.44051%

PB 300 million 29600000 90.36619% 9.15410% 0.46366% 0.01566% 0.00040%

PB 1500 million 584870000 13.51190% 27.04541% 27.06704% 18.05912% 9.03678%

***: "tickets" figures obtained from >>>> https://wizardofodds.com/games/lottery/ticket-sales-calculator/ >>>> then see "Tickets sold (in millions):"

Note 1: i have never worked the probabilities out this way before, so please check if the math is correct.
Note 2: I only went to "4 winners" in the table, so if you add up the "figures in each row" they will not = 100%, as there can be 5, 6, 7.... winners, and in theory all the way up to "however many tickets are sold in the draw" number of winners (If i wanted to do a "more complete table", I would probably go all the way up to a maximum of 10 winners).
Note 3: The figures I used in the above table assumed all tickets were bought randomly.

----
Extra info:

This is all "wishful thinking" because in reality there are: taxes, "taking a reduced lump-sum now" vs "taking the annuity and future value of money considerations (inflation, reduced buying power etc)" and possibly other things I didn't think of.

Here are some useful links of why buying a ticket is never a "good bet" from an EV point of view:
https://wizardofodds.com/games/lottery/mega-millions/
https://wizardofodds.com/games/lottery/powerball/
https://www.businessinsider.com/powerball-jackpot-450-million-expected-value-2019-3/?r=AU&IR=T

I'll get economical again. Money has diminishing marginal utility, meaning the more you have the less additional money brings you happiness.

For the material desires of most people, all of this is practically an infinite amount of money. Unless you feel the need to buy Van Gough paintings and stuff, you can't spend that much. It gets into stuff like, how many generations of your family will be rich after you die and perhaps how much impact you can have via political or charitable contributions.

Not that this contradicts your point about the ev of the bet. However the ev in utility isn't all that different. The prize is always basically, "I can do whatever I want for the rest of my life, at least as far as money is involved."

Rigondeaux

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Posts: 2549

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December 14th, 2019 at 5:20:08 PM permalink

Quote: Wizard
I have a degree in math and economics and I stand by what I said. However, I will grant you my friend who bought the two tickets spoke at length about what she would buy with $350 million. I'll grant you that in her case, there would have been some utility in the dream. However, I am a cold walking calculator with no heart. From my vantage point, lottery tickets are like a donation to the government and I will not stop whistling that tune.

I hadn't thought of the donation to the government angle. That might make it an even better bet. I'd argue that, if you are going to throw money away, it's better that it goes to the government where it might do some good (often not, but maybe) than to CET.

Certainly, it's -ev. But so are slots and blackjack. I'm just saying, if you must choose to play one of these games, the lotto is the best choice. You are buying the thrill of gambling and the lotto offers the best deal on that. Unless you are content to do a minute or two of casino gambling and leave.

ksdjdj

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December 14th, 2019 at 7:12:29 PM permalink

Quote: Wizard
As a reminder (largely to myself), the Mega Millions jackpot probability is 1 in 1 in 302575350.

As quoted above, for the 340M jackpot, my calculator estimated 22.65 million in ticket sales. Your actual sales of almost 26 million is duly noted. Are you suggesting this is part of the "Christmas bump," to give it a term? You may be right, but it also may just be random variation. Can you provide more evidence that previous sales have been higher than expected around Christmas?

To get an estimate of 26M in ticket sales, I need to put in a jackpot of 388M into the calculator, an increase of 14.12%. With 26M in sales, the fair line on the no drops to -1115. At the offered -750 odds, it was still a good bet.

1. "Can you provide more evidence that previous sales have been higher than expected around Christmas?"

I was having a closer look through the draws, and there was not enough data to confirm or deny my statement, so it could be like you said just "random variation". Also,I may have said in an earlier post, that the "bump"^^^ would have to be combined with a Jackpot above $300 million.
^^^: I may have used a different word to this in the post, but I am almost certain I wrote a post about "Holiday" or "New years" draws, in an earlier post.

2. "Are you suggesting this is part of the "Christmas bump," to give it a term?"

No, this would be separate as I previously thought that the 'bump' either happened on or very close to the Christmas and New years draws (within a day or 2 of the draws),

3. "To get an estimate of 26M in ticket sales, I need to put in a jackpot of 388M into the calculator, an increase of 14.12%. With 26M in sales, the fair line on the no drops to -1115. At the offered -750 odds, it was still a good bet."

I agree, it was a good bet.
Note: it was actually an estimated range of tickets 22-26m and I generally like to either use the biggest number or one close to it as my estimate when betting on the no winner (that was why I used 25.5 million tickets as my estimate for that draw).

See extra info below for how I sometimes like to work out the estimated tickets.

Important: Only use the method below, when the jackpot goes up by more than $5m between one draw and the next (since the jackpot rolls out by a minimum of $5m per roll each time it is not hit, for the Mega Millions).

----
Extra info:

Here are the steps I used to work out "my early estimate" for the Mega Millions on the 12/13/2019.

1. go to this site>>>https://www.txlottery.org/export/sites/lottery/Games/Mega_Millions/Estimated_Jackpot.html

2. Take away the "Estimated CVO for Advertised Jackpot" on the 12/13/2019 from "Estimated CVO for Advertised Jackpot" on the 12/10/2019, you should then get $18.5 M as the difference in this case ($230.8 M - $212.3 M).

3. Then you divide the figure from "2." by 0.753...***, to get 24.56... million tickets (as the 1st or "early" estimate).

***: This figure is the same as "0.376509 x 2", because the "Allocated From Sales To Fund Jackpot"*^* figure is 0.376509 and the cost is $2 per ticket

*^*: http://lottoreport.com/MMRules.htm >>> then scroll down about 3/4 of the way to a table that says "Texas Began Playing Mega Millions in Dec 2003" >>>> then just under that there should be a column that says "Allocated From Sales To Fund Jackpot" at the top >>>> finally at the bottom of that column you will find the figure (0.376509).

It is a quite bit harder for me to explain the correct steps for when I do a "late estimate" for the Mega Millions on the 12/13/2019, so I will explain it the way below (this is a very close approximation of the way I am actually doing it).

i. go to this site>>>https://www.txlottery.org/export/sites/lottery/Games/Mega_Millions/Estimated_Jackpot.html

ii. On the day of the drawing, take away the "Estimated Jackpot" on the 12/13/2019 from "Advertised Jackpot (30 Annual Payments)" on the 12/13/2019, you should then get $32 M as the difference in this case ($372 M - $340 M = $32 M).

iii. Multiply the figure in "2.", by about 0.9, and you should get ~ 28.8 million (as the 2nd or "late" estimate).

iv. Then you just add the "early estimate" and "late estimate" together, and divide by 2, to get a figure that will "very likely be close to the actual tickets" sold. In this case the average estimate would be about 26.7 million tickets (26.7 million tickets would have been my starting figure for the "betting summary" I posted for the MM draw on the 12/13/2019, if I didn't have access to the Wiz's calculator for that draw).

Note : The working out of the late estimate is only true for the draw on this date.

There are similar steps you can use to work out the "early estimate"for the Powerball as well (you just have to change the "figure you divide by" from 0.753 to "0.680 in step 3.)

Important: for the PB, the "Advertised Jackpot" increase is at least $10m per roll (if it is not hit on the previous drawing), so you can't use these steps, until you see a jump greater than $10m.

Note: i don't usually use this method anymore for the Powerball because 1) I now have the Wiz's calculator to use, and 2) the Powerball provides there own estimated ticket sales in $'s which can easily be converted into "estimated tickets" by dividing by 2 (see below for the draw on the 12/14/19)

https://www.txlottery.org/export/sites/lottery/Documents/jackpotestimates/pb20191214.pdf

----
Hope I answered your post well enough, as my communications/concentration skills can be quite dreadful (It took me about 3-4 hours to write this).

Note: spelling and grammar hasn't been checked thoroughly.

Wizard
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December 14th, 2019 at 7:38:14 PM permalink

Quote: michael99000
Just thinking , if you always stick to the math, then you�d be compelled to bet when the numbers say so

The numbers NEVER say so. When the jackpot gets big, it just induces more competition. The optimal return is a jackpot of about 500M. Higher than that and there is a great risk of jackpot splitting.

"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)

ksdjdj

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December 14th, 2019 at 7:52:58 PM permalink

Quote: Rigondeaux
This has been discussed before, but as an economist*, I think this is one of the best bets out there.

Your ev per dollar spent is low. But your consumption value per dollar lost is much higher than it is with other forms of gambling, if you buy just one or a few tickets. You get to dream, talk about it and anticipate for a week or so for a few dollars.

Losing a few dollars in most other forms of gambling takes minutes and almost nobody goes to a casino and plays 4 spins or 9 hands and goes home.

*someone who studied econ in college and doesn't remember any of it.

Quote: Rigondeaux

I'll get economical again. Money has diminishing marginal utility, meaning the more you have the less additional money brings you happiness.

For the material desires of most people, all of this is practically an infinite amount of money. Unless you feel the need to buy Van Gough paintings and stuff, you can't spend that much. It gets into stuff like, how many generations of your family will be rich after you die and perhaps how much impact you can have via political or charitable contributions.

Not that this contradicts your point about the ev of the bet. However the ev in utility isn't all that different. The prize is always basically, "I can do whatever I want for the rest of my life, at least as far as money is involved."

Yes, subjectively I would agree with you on the point(s) that you made above about "happiness", "dreaming and talking about it", and excitement (I used this instead of "anticipate...").

Objectively, the MM and PB. is still a - EV bet, (I think a $2 ticket is worth $1 on average*** to the player ?)

***: I don't need to know these figures for the bets i have, so that is why i am not 100% sure if that is correct (or at least close to correct) .

Also, you said "Losing a few dollars in most other forms of gambling takes minutes and almost nobody goes to a casino and plays 4 spins or 9 hands and goes home."

I definitely agree with the above statement of yours'

ksdjdj

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December 14th, 2019 at 9:53:09 PM permalink

For the Powerball draw on the 12/14/19, I put 3800 down to win 380.

Opening Bal: 27,550
Finishing Bal: 27,930
P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: 1,930
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 94.85...%
Odds Taken: -1000
Actual EV: 4.34...%
Tickets Sold***: 15,434,576
*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm

----
Betting Summary(s):

Game: Mega Millions
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 12/17/19"
Odds: -650
Estimated Chance: 90.86...% (based on an estimate of 29 million tickets sold)
Estimated EV: +4.83...%
Bet Amount: ~ 10.5% of bank roll (about 1/3 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: Now

----
Game: Powerball
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 12/18/19"
Odds: ?
Estimated Chance: 94.52...% (based on an estimate of 16.44 million tickets sold)
Estimated EV: ?...%
Bet Amount: ~ ?% of bank roll (about 1/3 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: ?

Note: I will try and update the "?" for the Powerball bet summary in this post, otherwise I will write it up properly in my next post.

----
Other:

For the next MM, the Wiz's calculator gets about 24.82 million as the "Tickets sold (in millions):" figure, and if I was posting a range it would be 23.2 to 29 million tickets.
For the next PB, the Wiz's calculator gets about 16.44 million as the "Tickets sold (in millions):" figure, and I think the jackpot is still "low" enough, to leave it as a single figure (instead of doing extra work, to find a "range of tickets").

----
Important:

Wiz, since there is a high chance that the next MM jackpot will be $401 to $439 million if the draw on the 12/17/19 is not hit, I strongly advise you to read the post below and then look at all the files in the one-drive link

WoV post/link: https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/31799-no-jackpot-winner-powerball-prop-bet/11/#post748993

one-drive link: https://onedrive.live.com/?id=913E9944ACDF5E46%21116&cid=913E9944ACDF5E46

I have never uploaded to one-drive before but i think i did it correctly.
All the one-drive files should be opened and read in conjunction with the WoV link above, but as a bare minimum you should look at the file called "mm_$401_million.PNG" (as that is the one with the most obvious "error" to me).

Note: For the file "MM+PB_2", only use the ".xls" version if the ".ods" one does NOT work properly (since I used "OpenOffice" to create the spreadsheet, I recommend you use the "OpenOffice" program to open the file).

Note 2: The spreadsheet mainly uses the formulas that you provided to me in an earlier post in this thread.

Note 3: Once you open the spreadsheet, the sheet called "Other_formulas" is not necessary to use to correct this "error", but I left it in there because it is fairly useful for working out the random ticket "(EV) break even point" for the "no jackpot winner".

Note 4: The one-drive link is in a "public folder", so anyone can use the link if they want to try the spreadsheets out.

----
Other (2):

Also, all credit goes to the Wizard and co (if any?) for working out the MM and PB formulas that I used in the "one-drive spreadsheet",
Lastly, if I haven't said something like this before: "thank you for providing the formulas, as they have helped make my 'job' a lot easier/ more efficient".

Last edited by: ksdjdj on Dec 15, 2019

ksdjdj

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December 15th, 2019 at 12:22:14 AM permalink

Possible "bad news" (at least for the "big bank-roll" punter):

I just checked what the "max bet" for the next MM draw was, and found out I can either get "$1000 down" or "to win $1000".

Note: I will check again tomorrow, because they may have a similar betting model to "Pinnacle Sports"(that is, they may increase the bet limits the closer it is to the game/draw date, hopefully?)

Note 2: I can't find my post at the moment, but I think just last week I tested it and found out the "max bet" was "$5000 down" or "to win $5000" (and you can usually re-bet every 5 to 30 minutes, or "straight away" if the odds have changed since your last bet).

beachbumbabs

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December 15th, 2019 at 6:54:47 AM permalink

Quote: Wizard
As a reminder (largely to myself), the Mega Millions jackpot probability is 1 in 1 in 302575350.

As quoted above, for the 340M jackpot, my calculator estimated 22.65 million in ticket sales. Your actual sales of almost 26 million is duly noted. Are you suggesting this is part of the "Christmas bump," to give it a term? You may be right, but it also may just be random variation. Can you provide more evidence that previous sales have been higher than expected around Christmas?

To get an estimate of 26M in ticket sales, I need to put in a jackpot of 388M into the calculator, an increase of 14.12%. With 26M in sales, the fair line on the no drops to -1115. At the offered -750 odds, it was still a good bet.

Anecdotally, you don't live in a lottery state, so you don't know how heavily they market the stocking stuffer ticket at Christmas. It's a very "traditional" and yearly gift, put into Christmas cards and adult stockings, from all sorts of people who don't otherwise play.

In fact, I have friends who did exactly this about a decade ago for their adult sons, except they used scratchers instead of print tickets. One of the kids hit $250,000 off his $5 card.

Also, players know that any unclaimed lotto money for the year gets dumped into the end of year pots in mid-December, (at least in Florida) and so, some people wait til then to buy tickets if they're not regulars, and others increase their buys.

So, yeah, it's worth factoring in. I'm sure the stats exist somewhere, that you could make an expectation vs. advertised jackpot amount curve, and if broken down month-to-month, you'd see an otherwise unexplained purchase bump of around 10-15% in December here.

All very rough, just based on 20+ years observation living in Florida.

If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.

Rigondeaux

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December 15th, 2019 at 7:39:22 AM permalink

Quote: beachbumbabs
20+ years observation living in Florida.

IndyJeffrey

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December 15th, 2019 at 9:21:19 AM permalink

Quote: beachbumbabs
All very rough, just based on 20+ years observation living in Florida.

I have similar Christmas-time observations here in Indiana with respect to lottery tickets as stocking stuffers. I know lots of families who do this.

TomG

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December 15th, 2019 at 10:07:10 AM permalink

Quote: Wizard
I have a degree in math and economics and I stand by what I said. However, I will grant you my friend who bought the two tickets spoke at length about what she would buy with $350 million. I'll grant you that in her case, there would have been some utility in the dream. However, I am a cold walking calculator with no heart. From my vantage point, lottery tickets are like a donation to the government and I will not stop whistling that tune.

The economist would say all the information about the value of the lottery is readily available and you admit access to information does nothing to change their behavior, so any decision to lecture someone about buying a ticket is coming from an emotional place.

The coldest and most calculated move is to negotiate how much she'll give you if it does hit. You get a shot at winning a significant amount of money with no risk at all.

I don't like the "dreaming" value that people say the lottery gives. I can dream about what I would buy with a billion dollars without ever buying a ticket. I can also get a shot at a million for the same cost, without losing any expected value.

IndyJeffrey

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December 15th, 2019 at 11:44:22 AM permalink

Quote: ksdjdj
Note 2: I only went to "4 winners" in the table, so if you add up the "figures in each row" they will not = 100%, as there can be 5, 6, 7.... winners, and in theory all the way up to "however many tickets are sold in the draw" number of winners (If i wanted to do a "more complete table", I would probably go all the way up to a maximum of 10 winners).

So...after a quick search of the internet (all cavets apply), I find the most winning tickets sold for a multi-state jackpot game to date was 5. For what that is worth.

IndyJeffrey

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December 15th, 2019 at 11:44:27 AM permalink

Quote: ksdjdj
Note 2: I only went to "4 winners" in the table, so if you add up the "figures in each row" they will not = 100%, as there can be 5, 6, 7.... winners, and in theory all the way up to "however many tickets are sold in the draw" number of winners (If i wanted to do a "more complete table", I would probably go all the way up to a maximum of 10 winners).

So...after a quick search of the internet (all cavets apply), I find the most winning tickets sold for a multi-state jackpot game to date was 5. For what that is worth.

IndyJeffrey

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December 15th, 2019 at 11:51:17 AM permalink

Quote: Wizard

Lottery: Mega Millions
Drawing: Dec 13
Jackpot: $340M
Probability somebody wins: 7.21%
Fair line no winner: -1287

This thread has inspired me to use a spreadsheet to calculate American lines on my own. That said, my math has a 7.21% chance at -1387. Am I mistaken here? Or have I caught a Wiz typo? Thanks,

ksdjdj

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December 15th, 2019 at 11:59:30 AM permalink

Quote: IndyJeffrey
Quote: Wizard

Lottery: Mega Millions
Drawing: Dec 13
Jackpot: $340M
Probability somebody wins: 7.21%
Fair line no winner: -1287

This thread has inspired me to use a spreadsheet to calculate American lines on my own. That said, my math has a 7.21% chance at -1387. Am I mistaken here? Or have I caught a Wiz typo? Thanks,

I think the Wiz is correct, for "7.21% somebody wins", I get -1,286.9625... for "Fair line no winner:", or -1287 to the nearest whole number

Update (about 1210 pm):
I can only get about -1,387, if i do it this way:
1. "Fair line no winner" = 1/0.0721 (1/7.21%) = 13.8696
2. Then multiply figure from "1." by "-100" = -1,386.96255... <<<< important, stopping here is wrong!!!
You need to then do the next step below (to complete the formula)
3. From the figure in "2.", you then need to "add 100" to it (if it is the favorite) so,
-1,386.96255... +100 = -1,286.96255...
Therefore the figure the Wiz gave is correct (-1287).

Note: there is at least one other way to do it, but doing it the above way and missing "step 3." was the only way I could think of that results in "-1387" as the answer

----
Betting Summaries:

Game: Mega Millions
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 12/17/19"
Odds: -900
Estimated Chance: 90.86...% (based on an estimate of 29 million tickets sold)
Estimated EV***: +0.9562...%
Bet Amount: !?!?
Would I have a bet now: probably not at -900 (up to you, since there is still "some estimated value").
Did I have a bet?: yes, earlier at -650

Edit ( about 145 pm):
***: Somewhere between 31.87 and 31.88 million tickets is the "Estimated EV break even point" for the "no winner" at odds of -900, if all tickets are random picks (just FYI).

----
Game: Powerball
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 12/18/19"
Odds: -950
Estimated Chance: 94.52...% (based on an estimate of 16.44 million tickets sold)
Estimated EV: +4.479...%
Bet Amount: ~ 14.2% of bank roll (about 1/3 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: now

Last edited by: ksdjdj on Dec 15, 2019

IndyJeffrey

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December 15th, 2019 at 1:53:35 PM permalink

Quote: ksdjdj
Quote: IndyJeffrey

This thread has inspired me to use a spreadsheet to calculate American lines on my own. That said, my math has a 7.21% chance at -1387. Am I mistaken here? Or have I caught a Wiz typo? Thanks,

I think the Wiz is correct, for "7.21% somebody wins", I get -1,286.9625... for "Fair line no winner:", or -1287 to the nearest whole number

2. Then multiply figure from "1." by "-100" = -1,386.96255... <<<< important, stopping here is wrong!!!
You need to then do the next step below (to complete the formula)

This is where I went wrong. Thank you.

Wizard
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December 15th, 2019 at 5:59:12 PM permalink

Let's look at the Tuesday and Wednesday:

Date: Dec 17
Lottery: Mega Millions
Jackpot: 372M
Estimated sales: 24.82M
Probability of winner: 7.88%
Probability no winner: 92.12%
Fair line no winner: -1169
5 Dimes line: -900
Player advantage: 2.36%
Wiz bet: $0 for now

Date: Dec 18
Lottery: PowerBall
Jackpot: 160M
Estimated sales: 16.44M
Probability of winner: 5.47%
Probability no winner: 94.53%
Fair line no winner: -1728
5 Dimes line: -950
Player advantage: 4.48%
Wiz bet: $712.50 to win $75.

Strange the 5 Dimes lines are so close together when the jackpots are far apart.

"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)

DRich

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December 15th, 2019 at 7:20:38 PM permalink

Everybody should increase their estimate of tickets sold for the Mega Million plus one. My wife is in Montana and just bought one.

If you don't hear from me again, you can assume I died (more likely) or we won the Mega Million.

At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.

ksdjdj

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December 15th, 2019 at 7:40:29 PM permalink

Quote: DRich
Everybody should increase their estimate of tickets sold for the Mega Million plus one. My wife is in Montana and just bought one.

If you don't hear from me again, you can assume I died (more likely) or we won the Mega Million.

Good luck

michael99000

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December 15th, 2019 at 7:47:22 PM permalink

Quote: DRich
Everybody should increase their estimate of tickets sold for the Mega Million plus one. My wife is in Montana and just bought one.

If you don't hear from me again, you can assume I died (more likely) or we won the Mega Million.

.

ksdjdj

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December 15th, 2019 at 8:24:04 PM permalink

I was just checking my bets and I must have been "half-asleep*** " because I had "to win $300" more than I wanted to on the "Mega Millions No jackpot".

***: It was between 12 and 1 at night my time (so I guess the lesson is, don't bet when you are sleepy, lol)

Anyway, I am looking to back the "yes, there will a Jackpot Winner, on the 12/17/19" (see offer below)

----
Offer:
Game: Mega Millions
Side I want to bet on: "yes, there will be a Jackpot Winner, on the 12/17/19"
Amount: I want to bet 250 USD in total (happy to bet a minimum of $25 per person/bet).
Price: "fair odds" ^^^
Commission: I will not charge any fees, and I am happy to 'gift' you 2.4% on top of my bet
(in other words I will pay you $256, if you accept the whole bet of $250 and it loses).
Note: You will pay me the full amount based on the "fair odds", if the jackpot is hit.

^^^ How will the "fair odds" be determined:
After the draw, the actual ticket sales### will be used to work out the 'fair odds', using the following formula:
###: The link here >>>>http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm <<<< will be used to find out the "actual ticket sales".

1-((302,575,349/302,575,350)^ "number of tickets sold"), is the formula to use to work out the "yes, jackpot is won/hit, fair odds", see example below:

example: If the MM draw on the 12/17/19 sold 28 million tickets, then the fair odds would be:
+1,031.4 (rounded to the nearest "0.1").
In the above example, if the "jackpot is hit/won" then you would pay me $2,578.50, and if there was "no jackpot winner" I would pay you $256.

Note: The "estimated odds range" figures below are NOT a guarantee of what the "fair odds" will be, they are just to "give you an idea of how much money you should set aside, if you accept the bet".

The "estimated odds range" is as follows: Between +1,350 and +950, for 'yes, the jackpot will be hit/won".

----
Other:
I prefer to use Paypal

This offer is "first in best dressed", and if no one takes me up on the offer by 130 pm (Pac time) on the 12/17/19 then I will have to remove the offer, as I will be away from my computer after that time.

If this offer is NOT allowed to be posted, please take it down / ask me to take it down, thanks.

Last edited by: ksdjdj on Dec 15, 2019

Wizard
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December 16th, 2019 at 1:27:29 PM permalink

Quote: ksdjdj
If this offer is NOT allowed to be posted, please take it down / ask me to take it down, thanks.

I'm fine with it.

The odds on the Dec 17 Mega Millions have dropped to -800. That's a 3.64% player edge -- worth doing. Think I'll throw down $400 to win $50.

PowerBall has dropped to -1100, so glad I snagged that at -950.

Any thoughts on how the odds tend to sway?

"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)

ksdjdj