Game: Mega Millions

Book: www.5dimes.eu

Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 12/10/19"

Odds: -700

Estimated Chance: 93.28...% (based on an estimate of 21.03 million tickets sold)

Estimated EV: +6.61...%

Bet Amount: ~ 15.4% of bank roll (about 1/3 Kelly)

Note: already had my bet earlier at the above odds (odds still available at the time of this post).

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Game: Powerball

Book: www.5dimes.eu

Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 12/11/19"

Odds: -1000

Estimated Chance: 94.83...% (based on an estimate of 15.5*** million tickets sold)

Estimated EV: +4.31...%

Bet Amount: ~ 14.4% of bank roll (about 1/3 Kelly)

When will I have a bet: Now

*** : used the link here >>> https://wizardofodds.com/games/lottery/ticket-sales-calculator/ <<<<

to help work out an estimate again, you should get 15.58 for "Tickets sold (in millions): ", since the next PB has a 140 m jackpot.

Opening Bal: 26,215

Finishing Bal: 26,790

P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: 790

Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 92.75...%

Odds Taken: -700

Actual EV: 6.00...%

Tickets Sold***: 22,767,020

*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm

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Other Info:

No odds are up for the next Mega Millions, so I will not be putting up a betting summary about it yet.

Use the link here >>> https://wizardofodds.com/games/lottery/ticket-sales-calculator/ <<<

if I don't put up a bet summary for the next MM^^^

^^^: I am away from my PC Thursday around 2pm to Saturday morning (US Time)

Note: my early ticket estimate would probably be 22 to 26 million for the next MM.

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Betting Summary (update):

Game: Powerball

Book: www.5dimes.eu

Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 12/11/19"

Odds: -1100

Estimated Chance: 94.83...% (based on an estimate of 15.5*** million tickets sold)

Estimated EV: +3.45...%

Bet Amount: ~ 12.7% of bank roll (about 1/3 Kelly)

Note: I have already had my bet a few days ago at -1000, but it is still good value at -1100.

If so, do you have tens of thousands of US dollars on account at this online book?

You have more trust than I would.....

Quote:SOOPOOAre you reporting US dollars? (snip)

Yes, 5d only let me bet in US $ at the moment.

Quote:(snip) If so, do you have tens of thousands of US dollars on account at this online book? (snip)

Not really, I have around $10k in the 5d account and the rest is in an account that can be converted to bitcoin and then sent quickly.

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They have just put up MM odds, see bet summary below:

Game: Mega Millions

Book: www.5dimes.eu

Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 12/13/19"

Odds: -750

Estimated Chance: 91.91...% (based on an estimate of 25.5 million tickets sold)

Estimated EV: +4.17...%

Bet Amount: ~ 10.4% of bank roll (about 1/3 Kelly)

When will I have a bet: Now

Opening Bal: 26,790

Finishing Bal: 27,175

P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: 1,175

Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 95.57...%

Odds Taken: -1000

Actual EV: 5.12...%

Tickets Sold***: 13,237,112

*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm

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Betting Summaries:

Game: Mega Millions

Book: www.5dimes.eu

Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 12/13/19"

Odds: -750

Estimated Chance: 91.91...% (based on an estimate of 25.5 million tickets sold)

Estimated EV: +4.17...%

Bet Amount: ~ 10.4% of bank roll (about 1/3 Kelly)

Note(s): Already had my bet and the odds haven't changed.

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Game: Powerball

Book: www.5dimes.eu

Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 12/14/19"

Odds: -1000

Estimated Chance: 94.67...% (based on an estimate of 16 million tickets sold)

Estimated EV: +4.13...%

Bet Amount: ~ 13.8% of bank roll (about 1/3 Kelly)

When will I have a bet: Now

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Other Info:

Here are my ticket estimate ranges for:

MM: 22 to 26 million

PB: 13.5 to 16.5 million

The odds seem to be "getting worse", so if that trend continues, I may not be posting^^^ for a while.

^^^: If the EV is less than 1.5%, I will probably stop betting/posting.

I am away for the next two days, so I will not be posting any updates until I get back.

At one point a friend of mine purchased one ticket for each lottery. I, of course, gave her the lecture of what a terrible bet it was. As always, with lottery players, no amount of logic or math will change their mind.

Anyway, let's look at the upcoming drawings:

Lottery: Mega Millions

Drawing: Dec 13

Jackpot: $340M

Probability somebody wins: 7.21%

Fair line no winner: -1287

5 Dimes line: -750

Player advantage: 7.07%

My bet: $750 to win $100

Lottery: PowerBall

Drawing: Dec 14

Jackpot: $150M

Probability somebody wins: 5.33%

Probability nobody wins: 94.67%

Fair line no winner: -1776

5 Dimes line: -1000

Player advantage: 4.14%

My bet: $500 to win $50

Opening Bal: 27,175

Finishing Bal: 27,550

P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: 1,550

Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 91.77...%

Odds Taken: -750

Actual EV: 4.01...%

Tickets Sold***: 25,971,279

*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm

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Other:

If you haven't had a bet yet, see the Powerball section in the link here >>> https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/31799-no-jackpot-winner-powerball-prop-bet/12/#post749899 <<< , as the odds are still -1000, at the time of this post.

Also, there are currently no odds up yet for the next MM, but I would probably put up somewhere between 23 and 27 million tickets as a very quick estimate (I will have a proper look later, if/when they put the odds up).

Note: as we are getting 'bigger and bigger' jackpots, and getting 'closer and closer' to Christmas and New Years, the Wiz and I are possibly going to have 'more and more' noticeable differences in our estimates. But since we are not competing with each other, as long as we are getting "+ EV on the bet", it doesn't really matter who is closer to the "actual ticket sales".

Also Note: If the MM jackpot hasn't been won by New Years Eve, then there is a chance I won't bet on the draws around that time because of a 'tickets sale 'bump', see hypothetical below

Hypothetical:

If the MM draw on (or around) the 12/31/19 had the same jackpot as the one on the 12/17/19 , I would probably use 33 to 41 million tickets as the estimate.

Note: in general, I would probably bump the "rest of the year/normal estimate" by about 50%, when looking at the "Christmas and NY" draws (if the jackpot hasn't been won by then).

Quote:Wizard

Lottery: Mega Millions

Drawing: Dec 13

Jackpot: $340M

Probability somebody wins: 7.21%

Fair line no winner: -1287

5 Dimes line: -750

Player advantage: 7.07%

My bet: $750 to win $100

Quote:ksdjdjFor the Mega Millions draw on the 12/13/19, I put 2,812.5 down to win 375.

Opening Bal: 27,175

Finishing Bal: 27,550

P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: 1,550

Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 91.77...%

Odds Taken: -750

Actual EV: 4.01...%

Tickets Sold***: 25,971,279

*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm

As a reminder (largely to myself), the Mega Millions jackpot probability is 1 in 1 in 302575350.

As quoted above, for the 340M jackpot, my calculator estimated 22.65 million in ticket sales. Your actual sales of almost 26 million is duly noted. Are you suggesting this is part of the "Christmas bump," to give it a term? You may be right, but it also may just be random variation. Can you provide more evidence that previous sales have been higher than expected around Christmas?

To get an estimate of 26M in ticket sales, I need to put in a jackpot of 388M into the calculator, an increase of 14.12%. With 26M in sales, the fair line on the no drops to -1115. At the offered -750 odds, it was still a good bet.

Quote:WizardI'm back from a week in New York. I tried to bet from there, but 5dimes didn't let me log in from an unknown computer and I didn't fuss with the process to override it.

At one point a friend of mine purchased one ticket for each lottery. I, of course, gave her the lecture of what a terrible bet it was. As always, with lottery players, no amount of logic or math will change their mind.

This has been discussed before, but as an economist*, I think this is one of the best bets out there.

Your ev per dollar spent is low. But your consumption value per dollar lost is much higher than it is with other forms of gambling, if you buy just one or a few tickets. You get to dream, talk about it and anticipate for a week or so for a few dollars.

Losing a few dollars in most other forms of gambling takes minutes and almost nobody goes to a casino and plays 4 spins or 9 hands and goes home.

*someone who studied econ in college and doesn't remember any of it.