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ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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December 8th, 2019 at 11:53:08 AM permalink
Betting summaries:

Game: Mega Millions
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 12/10/19"
Odds: -700
Estimated Chance: 93.28...% (based on an estimate of 21.03 million tickets sold)
Estimated EV: +6.61...%
Bet Amount: ~ 15.4% of bank roll (about 1/3 Kelly)
Note: already had my bet earlier at the above odds (odds still available at the time of this post).

----
Game: Powerball
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 12/11/19"
Odds: -1000
Estimated Chance: 94.83...% (based on an estimate of 15.5*** million tickets sold)
Estimated EV: +4.31...%
Bet Amount: ~ 14.4% of bank roll (about 1/3 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: Now

*** : used the link here >>> https://wizardofodds.com/games/lottery/ticket-sales-calculator/ <<<<
to help work out an estimate again, you should get 15.58 for "Tickets sold (in millions): ", since the next PB has a 140 m jackpot.
DRich
DRich
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
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ksdjdj
December 8th, 2019 at 2:54:54 PM permalink
I wish they would put up odds that I win the Powerball on the next draw. I could probably get some +EV there.
Order from chaos
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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December 11th, 2019 at 11:28:57 AM permalink
For the Mega Millions draw on the 12/10/19, I put 4,025 down to win 575.

Opening Bal: 26,215
Finishing Bal: 26,790
P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: 790
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 92.75...%
Odds Taken: -700
Actual EV: 6.00...%
Tickets Sold***: 22,767,020
*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm

-----
Other Info:

No odds are up for the next Mega Millions, so I will not be putting up a betting summary about it yet.
Use the link here >>> https://wizardofodds.com/games/lottery/ticket-sales-calculator/ <<<
if I don't put up a bet summary for the next MM^^^
^^^: I am away from my PC Thursday around 2pm to Saturday morning (US Time)
Note: my early ticket estimate would probably be 22 to 26 million for the next MM.

-----
Betting Summary (update):

Game: Powerball
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 12/11/19"
Odds: -1100
Estimated Chance: 94.83...% (based on an estimate of 15.5*** million tickets sold)
Estimated EV: +3.45...%
Bet Amount: ~ 12.7% of bank roll (about 1/3 Kelly)
Note: I have already had my bet a few days ago at -1000, but it is still good value at -1100.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Dec 11, 2019
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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December 11th, 2019 at 1:55:31 PM permalink
Are you reporting US dollars?

If so, do you have tens of thousands of US dollars on account at this online book?

You have more trust than I would.....
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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Rigondeaux
December 11th, 2019 at 2:20:31 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Are you reporting US dollars? (snip)


Yes, 5d only let me bet in US $ at the moment.

Quote:

(snip) If so, do you have tens of thousands of US dollars on account at this online book? (snip)


Not really, I have around $10k in the 5d account and the rest is in an account that can be converted to bitcoin and then sent quickly.

-----
They have just put up MM odds, see bet summary below:

Game: Mega Millions
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 12/13/19"
Odds: -750
Estimated Chance: 91.91...% (based on an estimate of 25.5 million tickets sold)
Estimated EV: +4.17...%
Bet Amount: ~ 10.4% of bank roll (about 1/3 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: Now
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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December 12th, 2019 at 1:54:58 PM permalink
For the Powerball draw on the 12/11/19, I put 3,850 down to win 385.

Opening Bal: 26,790
Finishing Bal: 27,175
P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: 1,175
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 95.57...%
Odds Taken: -1000
Actual EV: 5.12...%
Tickets Sold***: 13,237,112
*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm

----
Betting Summaries:

Game: Mega Millions
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 12/13/19"
Odds: -750
Estimated Chance: 91.91...% (based on an estimate of 25.5 million tickets sold)
Estimated EV: +4.17...%
Bet Amount: ~ 10.4% of bank roll (about 1/3 Kelly)
Note(s): Already had my bet and the odds haven't changed.

----
Game: Powerball
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 12/14/19"
Odds: -1000
Estimated Chance: 94.67...% (based on an estimate of 16 million tickets sold)
Estimated EV: +4.13...%
Bet Amount: ~ 13.8% of bank roll (about 1/3 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: Now

----
Other Info:

Here are my ticket estimate ranges for:
MM: 22 to 26 million
PB: 13.5 to 16.5 million

The odds seem to be "getting worse", so if that trend continues, I may not be posting^^^ for a while.
^^^: If the EV is less than 1.5%, I will probably stop betting/posting.

I am away for the next two days, so I will not be posting any updates until I get back.
Wizard
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Wizard
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December 13th, 2019 at 11:08:41 AM permalink
I'm back from a week in New York. I tried to bet from there, but 5dimes didn't let me log in from an unknown computer and I didn't fuss with the process to override it.

At one point a friend of mine purchased one ticket for each lottery. I, of course, gave her the lecture of what a terrible bet it was. As always, with lottery players, no amount of logic or math will change their mind.

Anyway, let's look at the upcoming drawings:

Lottery: Mega Millions
Drawing: Dec 13
Jackpot: $340M
Probability somebody wins: 7.21%
Fair line no winner: -1287
5 Dimes line: -750
Player advantage: 7.07%
My bet: $750 to win $100

Lottery: PowerBall
Drawing: Dec 14
Jackpot: $150M
Probability somebody wins: 5.33%
Probability nobody wins: 94.67%
Fair line no winner: -1776
5 Dimes line: -1000
Player advantage: 4.14%
My bet: $500 to win $50
Last edited by: Wizard on Dec 13, 2019
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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December 14th, 2019 at 3:11:18 AM permalink
For the Mega Millions draw on the 12/13/19, I put 2,812.5 down to win 375.

Opening Bal: 27,175
Finishing Bal: 27,550
P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: 1,550
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 91.77...%
Odds Taken: -750
Actual EV: 4.01...%
Tickets Sold***: 25,971,279
*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm

----
Other:

If you haven't had a bet yet, see the Powerball section in the link here >>> https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/31799-no-jackpot-winner-powerball-prop-bet/12/#post749899 <<< , as the odds are still -1000, at the time of this post.

Also, there are currently no odds up yet for the next MM, but I would probably put up somewhere between 23 and 27 million tickets as a very quick estimate (I will have a proper look later, if/when they put the odds up).

Note: as we are getting 'bigger and bigger' jackpots, and getting 'closer and closer' to Christmas and New Years, the Wiz and I are possibly going to have 'more and more' noticeable differences in our estimates. But since we are not competing with each other, as long as we are getting "+ EV on the bet", it doesn't really matter who is closer to the "actual ticket sales".

Also Note: If the MM jackpot hasn't been won by New Years Eve, then there is a chance I won't bet on the draws around that time because of a 'tickets sale 'bump', see hypothetical below

Hypothetical:

If the MM draw on (or around) the 12/31/19 had the same jackpot as the one on the 12/17/19 , I would probably use 33 to 41 million tickets as the estimate.

Note: in general, I would probably bump the "rest of the year/normal estimate" by about 50%, when looking at the "Christmas and NY" draws (if the jackpot hasn't been won by then).
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Dec 14, 2019
Wizard
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Wizard
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December 14th, 2019 at 7:19:35 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard


Lottery: Mega Millions
Drawing: Dec 13
Jackpot: $340M
Probability somebody wins: 7.21%
Fair line no winner: -1287
5 Dimes line: -750
Player advantage: 7.07%
My bet: $750 to win $100



Quote: ksdjdj

For the Mega Millions draw on the 12/13/19, I put 2,812.5 down to win 375.

Opening Bal: 27,175
Finishing Bal: 27,550
P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: 1,550
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 91.77...%
Odds Taken: -750
Actual EV: 4.01...%
Tickets Sold***: 25,971,279
*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm



As a reminder (largely to myself), the Mega Millions jackpot probability is 1 in 1 in 302575350.

As quoted above, for the 340M jackpot, my calculator estimated 22.65 million in ticket sales. Your actual sales of almost 26 million is duly noted. Are you suggesting this is part of the "Christmas bump," to give it a term? You may be right, but it also may just be random variation. Can you provide more evidence that previous sales have been higher than expected around Christmas?

To get an estimate of 26M in ticket sales, I need to put in a jackpot of 388M into the calculator, an increase of 14.12%. With 26M in sales, the fair line on the no drops to -1115. At the offered -750 odds, it was still a good bet.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Rigondeaux
Rigondeaux
Joined: Aug 18, 2014
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December 14th, 2019 at 7:39:22 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I'm back from a week in New York. I tried to bet from there, but 5dimes didn't let me log in from an unknown computer and I didn't fuss with the process to override it.

At one point a friend of mine purchased one ticket for each lottery. I, of course, gave her the lecture of what a terrible bet it was. As always, with lottery players, no amount of logic or math will change their mind.



This has been discussed before, but as an economist*, I think this is one of the best bets out there.

Your ev per dollar spent is low. But your consumption value per dollar lost is much higher than it is with other forms of gambling, if you buy just one or a few tickets. You get to dream, talk about it and anticipate for a week or so for a few dollars.

Losing a few dollars in most other forms of gambling takes minutes and almost nobody goes to a casino and plays 4 spins or 9 hands and goes home.

*someone who studied econ in college and doesn't remember any of it.

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