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Wizard
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Wizard
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December 4th, 2019 at 7:15:58 PM permalink
I see the odds dropped to -1135 on the PowerBall tonight.

No jackpot probability = 95.07%
Fair line = -1928
Player advantage = 3.36%

I think I'll throw a little more on it.

MegaMillions (for Friday Dec 6)

No jackpot probability = 93.8%
Fair line = -1513
Five Dime line = -700
Player advantage = 7.20%

Quote: Open bets


59953****-1 12/4/19 10:17pm $113.50 $10.00 Pending 12/4/19 10:30pm Lotto Other Sports 4 No Jackpot Winner 12/04/19 -1135* vs Powerball Jackpot Winner 12/04/19
59953****-1 12/4/19 10:16pm $700.00 $100.00 Pending 12/6/19 10:30pm Lotto Other Sports 6 No Jackpot Winner 12/06/19 -700* vs Mega Millions Jackpot Winner 12/06/19
59900****-1 12/1/19 8:13pm $300.00 $25.00 Pending 12/4/19 10:30pm Lotto Other Sports 4 No Jackpot Winner 12/04/19 -1200* vs Powerball Jackpot Winner 12/04/19

It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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December 4th, 2019 at 7:16:11 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

How do you know when to switch? I pretty much just eyeballed it, but it was a judgement call.


I was just fiddling around with the MM calculator at the time, and through "trial and error" I found the amount below is definitely wrong:

The calculator says that a 401m jackpot = 5.64m tickets (1.85% probability of winners)

For comparison the calculator says a 400m jackpot = 26.89m tickets (8.5% probability of winners).

For whole numbers, I think 440m jackpot for the Mega Millions part of the calculator is the most logical switching*** point,

***: plugging ~ 439.9 million into a spreadsheet gets close to the same amount of tickets using either one of your formulas (the estimated tickets should be about 30.15m for both MM formulas, if I did it right).

Again, there are no errors in the formulas, I just think the calculator is using the wrong switching point

----
Update (about 745 pm)

"Eyeballing" the graphs in the link below, I would have guessed around 400 million as the switching point as well

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/31799-no-jackpot-winner-powerball-prop-bet/9/#post748769

-----
Update 2 (about 815 pm)

Just started focusing on the Power Ball calculator, and I think the correct^^^ switching point is below

Switch from Low to Medium jackpot formula somewhere between 181m and 182m jackpot,

^^^: if this is not the most correct switching point, it is at least the most logical to me, because it is the point where the "estimated tickets" are almost the same.

-----
Update 3 (about 9 pm)

For PB, switch from Medium to High jackpot formula somewhere between 576m and 577m

Note: this is so close to your current switch point (575m) that I don't know if it is worth the extra work to change it.

Please correct me if I am wrong for any of the Power Ball switching points, but I think I am closer to being correct for the Mega Millions switching point.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Dec 4, 2019
Wizard
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Romes
December 4th, 2019 at 9:12:28 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I see the odds dropped to -1135 on the PowerBall tonight.

No jackpot probability = 95.07%
Fair line = -1928
Player advantage = 3.36%

I think I'll throw a little more on it.



No jackpot, ka-ching!
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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December 4th, 2019 at 9:32:38 PM permalink
Note: Remember I am using simulated results from now on

For the Powerball draw on the 12/04/19, I put 3,000 down to win 250.

Opening Bal: 25,240
Finishing Bal: 25,490
P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: (510)
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): ??? 95.81...%
Odds Taken: -1200
Actual EV: ??? 3.79...%
Tickets Sold***: ??? 12,495,867
*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm

Will update "???" when I have the actual sales data.

----
Other info:

After a draw, you can estimate how many tickets were sold based on the "number of winners", for this PB draw see below:

Go to the link here >>> https://www.usamega.com/powerball-drawing.asp?d=12/4/2019
>>> then add up all the "winners" which is 480,774 (incl California) >>>> then multiply that number by 24.87^^^

^^^: the odds of winning any prize is 1/24.87, that is why i used that number.

from the above, we can estimate about 11.95 million tickets were sold in this draw.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Dec 4, 2019
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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December 5th, 2019 at 12:12:11 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

(Snip) Will I have a bet: Yes, but not yet, as I think there is a very high chance that the odds on offer will get bigger, closer to the draw.


Welp, I picked the wrong time to bet for the Mega Millions draw on the 12/06/19, the odds have gone from -700 to -850, see MM and PB bet summaries below:

----
Game: Mega Millions
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 12/06/19"
Odds: -850
Estimated Chance: 93.41...% (based on an estimate of 20.6 million tickets sold)
Estimated EV: +4.40...%
Bet Amount: 12.5% of bank roll (about 1/3 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: Now

----
Game: Powerball
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 12/07/19"
Odds: -1050
Estimated Chance: 94.99...% (based on an estimate of 15 million tickets sold)
Estimated EV: +4.04...%
Bet Amount: ~ 14.2% of bank roll (about 1/3 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: Now

----
Other info:

I am going to go back to basics for a little while by having my bet as soon as I notice that 5d has put up some good +EV odds.

Note: I have been wrong more often lately with the odds changes (I don't think 5d is following this thread carefully/at all, but maybe there are enough "new" punters betting on this to make the odds change against the OLD "normal betting trend"?).

Also, personally I prefer using the Wiz's calculator at the moment, but I will go back to putting up a "range" of tickets for "bigger"*** draws

***: I prefer to use a range of tickets for the bigger draws because sometimes you can be way off with a "single" estimate eg:
For Mega Millions,on the 01/01/19 ticket sales were 48,286,127 (jackpot $425m).
For comparison, between the 05/28/19 and the 06/07/19 Mega Million ticket sales were between 23,629,189 and 41,631,077 (jackpots between $418m and $530m)

Note: The "blow-up" of ticket sales for the "new years" draw was possibly due to "holiday season news hype" and the fact that less people are working at that time of year (in other words, they have more time to notice and think "maybe I could be the winner of the big jackpot" ?)

FYI: If I was doing things the old/long way , below are the ticket ranges I would get for the next MM and PB draws:

MM: Most likely between 17.5m and 20.5m tickets
PB: Most likely between 13.1m and 15.1m tickets

Note: With these estimates I am trying to be on or "slightly over" the actual tickets sales (since I am betting on the "no winner"^^^)

^^^: If the "yes, there is a jackpot winner" odds were the ones with the +EV, I would probably shift my estimate ranges to the ones below ( for this hypothetical scenario I would aim for my estimates to be on or "slightly under" the actual sales)

MM: 16.5m to 19.5m, and PB: 12.1m to 14.1m (if the "yes" side ever had potential +EV odds on offer)
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Dec 5, 2019
Romes
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ksdjdjSOOPOO
December 5th, 2019 at 1:24:08 PM permalink
I for some reason very much enjoy watching this thread and you guys pick apart the lotto drawings =P. Do any other sites besides 5dimes have betting on the lotto?
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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December 5th, 2019 at 1:28:37 PM permalink
Quote: Romes

(snip) Do any other sites besides 5dimes have betting on the lotto?


Not that I know of, but if anyone finds another one that does it for MM and PB, it would be great if you could PM me or post it on this thread.

---
Update (about 330 pm)

Quote: ksdjdj

(snip)
Game: Mega Millions
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 12/06/19"
Odds: -850
Estimated Chance: 93.41...% (based on an estimate of 20.6 million tickets sold)
Estimated EV: +4.40...%
Bet Amount: 12.5% of bank roll (about 1/3 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: Now

----
Game: Powerball
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 12/07/19"
Odds: -1050
Estimated Chance: 94.99...% (based on an estimate of 15 million tickets sold)
Estimated EV: +4.04...%
Bet Amount: ~ 14.2% of bank roll (about 1/3 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: Now
(snip)


Also, with 5dimes you can "parlay" the above bets together and get about +8.63%, for the combined EV, if you wanted to.

But is it better for "average bank-roll growth" to combine the bet into a "parlay" or leave it as two "single bets", when using the same "Kelly betting strategy" for both types of bets? (see working out below)

1) Estimated "average bank roll growth" for two "single bets"
= "Bet amount for MM bet" x "Estimated MM EV" + "Bet amount for PB bet" x "Estimated PB EV"
= (12.49149...% x 4.40876...%) + (14.15167...% x 4.0433...%)
= 0.55072...% + 0.57219...%
= 1.12291...%

2) Estimated "average bank roll growth" when combining the two bets into a "parlay". (see " ^^^" for what the "bet summary" would look like for a "parlay" for the next two draws)
= "Bet amount for Parlay bet" x "Estimated Parlay EV"
= 12.83622...% x 8.63035...%
= 1.10781...%

^^^: "Parlay Bet Summary"
Game: Mega Millions + Powerball
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Bet Type: Two - game "parlay"
Props: "No Jackpot Winner" on both the "12/06/19" and the ""12/07/19""
Combined Odds: - 446.25
Combined Estimated Chance: 88.74...%
Combined Estimated EV: +8.63...%
Bet Amount: ~ 12.8% of bank roll (about 1/3 Kelly)


In summary:

1) has an estimated "average bank roll growth" of about 1.123% and
2) has an estimated "average bank roll growth" of about 1.108%

As you can see from 1) and 2) above, combining the bets into a "parlay" is NOT the best option when betting "1/3 Kelly", if your goal is to "have the bigger average bank roll growth".

Note: The "average ... growth" difference is so small, that if you prefer getting "bigger odds"/ and / or risking a "smaller % of your bank roll", then you are not "losing out much at all" by betting on a "parlay" (at least for the next MM and PB draws).

Also note: If you don't know what I mean by "average bank roll growth", then see example below:

Example: Say if you had a current bank roll of $10,000, and your estimated "average bank roll growth" was 1% for the next bet you had, then you would expect to increase your bank roll by $100

Note; this would be true/"close to true" for every situation you had $10,000 as your current bank roll and 1% as your estimated "average bank roll growth" in the "long-run", in reality the short to medium-term growth would NOT be like this, because each bet can only either be resolved as a win or a loss.

----
Only quickly checked the math because I have to go out (please tell me if any of the math is NOT correct, thanks).
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Dec 5, 2019
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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December 6th, 2019 at 11:31:05 AM permalink
Quote: Romes

(snip)Do any other sites besides 5dimes have betting on the lotto?


Part 2:
I still can't find any other site that have betting on the lotto^^^, but here is a link to another 5dimesgroup casino/book,
^^^: notice that the odds are the same and they are part of the same "group of casinos" (so that is why I still think you are "betting with 5d" in my opinion, even though the website has a different name)
https://www.sportbet.com/lines/Other-Sports/Lotto/

Note: I personally like the page layout/"colors used" with sportbet more than 5d (but I have been betting with 5d longer, so that is why I keep going back to them).

Below is the link I used to find the above site:
https://www.onlinecasinodollar.com/casino-owner/5dimes-group.html

Very Important: I know you didn't ask about this, but don't try to get around the bet limits by "stacking"*** your bets at both 5d and sportbet, as I tried to do this in 2013, when the "lotto bets" were only "$500 down" or "to win $500".
I received a very stern warning for doing/attempting to do the above. I think they said it was grounds for them to terminate my account(s), if they felt like doing so (lucky for me they didn't).
***: I don't know if they still use this term, but in this case it means putting down the "max bet" or "near max bet" at both books, to try and get around the betting limits.

----
Parlays (continued from previous post):

I did some more testing of parlay bets, and can fairly confidently say it is never^*^ as good a bet from a "average bank roll growth" point of view when compared to single bets (when using the same "Kelly betting" strategy for both types of bets)

^*^: However, it could be a good way to get around the betting limits (I can't confirm if it works or not, but see hypothetical scenario below)

Scenario:

Your current bank roll is $205,000 , also you estimate the "no lotto winner" for the next two draws as 60% chance each, and the odds they are offering for both draws is +100.

In the above scenario, you would get down your normal bet of $5,000 on each "single bet" @ odds of +100 each, and you would also attempt to get down another $5,000 by "parlaying" the two lotto bets together, @ odds of +300.

If you get all the bets down, your EV in $'s is: $4,200

For the two single bets it would be:
(("estimated win chance" x "odds")-100%) x "bet in $'s"
= ((60% x 2.00) -100%) x $10,000 (as there are 2 single bets of $5,000, with the same odds and "estimated" chances).
= 20% x $10,000 = $2,000

For the parlay bet it would be:
(("estimated win chances" x "odds")-100%) x "bet in $'s"
= ((60% x 60% x 4.00) -100%) x $5,000
= 44% x $5,000 = $2,200

So, in the above hypothetical you would expect to have a combined EV of $4,200

Note: In this scenario the sports book has $5,000 betting limit for each bet, and you are betting about "1/6 Kelly*^* " for each bet.

*^*: I went from "1/3 kelly" to "1/6 kelly" in this scenario, because the single bets are "related" to the parlay bets.

Note: Again, i haven't tried this myself, but anyone with enough bank could give it a go, to see if they allow### it.

###: if they don't allow it straight away, you can still have another bet after about 5 to 20 minutes has past (usually at slightly reduced odds, though).

-----
Above hasn't been checked carefully, but the math looks right to me.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Dec 6, 2019
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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December 7th, 2019 at 12:42:26 PM permalink
For the Mega Millions draw on the 12/06/19, I put 3,187.50 down to win 375.

Opening Bal: 25,490
Finishing Bal: 25,865
P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: (135)
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 93.80...%
Odds Taken: -850
Actual EV: 4.83...%
Tickets Sold***: 19,363,783
*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm

---
Other info:

For the MM draw on the 12/06/19, the estimated tickets sales using the link here >>>> https://wizardofodds.com/games/lottery/ticket-sales-calculator/ >>> were only out by 13,783 tickets, in other words out by about 1/1405 (so very close)

----
Betting summaries:

Game: Powerball
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 12/07/19"
Odds: -1050
Estimated Chance: 94.99...% (based on an estimate of 15 million tickets sold)
Estimated EV: +4.04...%
Bet Amount: ~ 14.2% of bank roll (about 1/3 Kelly)
Note: already had my bet earlier at the above odds (odds still available at the time of this post).

----
Game: Mega Millions
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 12/10/19"
Odds: -700
Estimated Chance: 93.28...% (based on an estimate of 21.03^^^ million tickets sold)
Estimated EV: +6.61...%
Bet Amount: ~ 15.4% of bank roll (about 1/3 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: Now

^^^: I am currently using >>>https://wizardofodds.com/games/lottery/ticket-sales-calculator/ <<< to work out an estimate, as I think the Jackpot is still "small" enough to use one method to estimate ticket sales.
Note: I would probably put up 18.5 to 22 million tickets as the estimated range for the next MM draw, if I was doing it the old way.

----
Update (about 130 pm)
Here are the theoretical "number of tickets sold" break-even points for the next two draws (using the current "No Jackpot Winner" odds)

For Mega Millions, about 40.4 million tickets, and
for the Powerball, about 26.6 million tickets have to be sold^*^.
^*^: if you want to find out the actual "break-even point", then I think the link below explains the formula well:
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/31799-no-jackpot-winner-powerball-prop-bet/4/#post722541

Note: These "break-even point" figures, would be most accurate if all the tickets were bought as "random" picks.

Also, I won't be putting up these figures every time I post about a new draw, I will probably just put them up for the "big"*^* draws from now on.
*^*: $400 million + draws.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Dec 7, 2019
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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December 7th, 2019 at 11:34:26 PM permalink
For the Powerball draw on the 12/07/19, I put 3,675 down to win 350.

Opening Bal: 25,865
Finishing Bal: 26,215
P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: 215
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 95.25...%
Odds Taken: -1050
Actual EV: 4.33...%
Tickets Sold***: 14,192,913
*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm

-----
Other info:

Odds for the next PB are not up at the time of this post, if they put up odds I will probably use something around 15.58^^^ million tickets as the estimate for the next PB draw
^^^: used link here >>> https://wizardofodds.com/games/lottery/ticket-sales-calculator/ <<<<
and 140 for "Jackpot size (in millions)"
Odds are still the same for the next MM draw (-700 for no jackpot winner).

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