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DRich
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September 14th, 2022 at 6:54:39 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO


Coach SOOPOO would have let Wilson try for the 1st down. But I don’t think it was AS BAD a decision as virtually all the analysts are making it out to be!
link to original post



Coach DRich would have kicked if he could assume the kicker would make it 40% of the time. I think your numbers of 50% probability and 80% probability come out to an overall 40% chance of being successful. I personally doubt they would have got to an 80% probability of making the kick.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
Mission146
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September 14th, 2022 at 7:34:22 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: SOOPOO


Coach SOOPOO would have let Wilson try for the 1st down. But I don’t think it was AS BAD a decision as virtually all the analysts are making it out to be!
link to original post



Coach DRich would have kicked if he could assume the kicker would make it 40% of the time. I think your numbers of 50% probability and 80% probability come out to an overall 40% chance of being successful. I personally doubt they would have got to an 80% probability of making the kick.
link to original post



That's what makes this so complicated. Converting the 4th and 5 does not exist in a vacuum because you're not going to run the clock all the way down to 0:20, and even if you did, you have more timeouts anyway. While McManus has made just over half from 50+ in his career, he has hit an actual (in-game) 83.8% from the range of 40-49. If you can put him in a position to kick one that is under 40 yards, then at 95%, he is virtually automatic.

With that, we really can't come to any ultimate probability conclusion without knowing at least a range probability of---first we convert the Fourth Down, what is the probability McManus has to kick a 50+ attempt, 40-49, sub-40...and then go from there.

Another thing is, when it comes to leg, you've either got the leg or you don't. We simply don't see 60+ tried very often, but you always hear announcers say, "Oh, he could have made that from 70!!!", and it's true. It could be that we have an issue of sample sizing such that, given a large enough sample, we might find that a kicker is not THAT much less likely to make from 60-65 as mid-high 50's, provided he's got the leg for it to begin with.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
GenoDRPh
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September 14th, 2022 at 8:39:21 AM permalink
This is the reason why I don't bet on sports. My heart-as strong as it is-wouldn't be able to take it.

Gene
lilredrooster
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September 14th, 2022 at 9:02:55 AM permalink
______________


I don't think any NFL Coach has ever taken this much heat over a decision he made

not that I can recall anyway - the internet era makes it worse for him


.
Please don't feed the trolls
Mission146
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September 14th, 2022 at 9:12:02 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

______________


I don't think any NFL Coach has ever taken this much heat over a decision he made

not that I can recall anyway - the internet era makes it worse for him


.
link to original post



First game, too. Well, at least we can assume that he'll never feel fire like this again, at least, as long as he never finds himself on the hot seat.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Vegasrider
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September 14th, 2022 at 10:26:27 AM permalink
Watching the Payton cast when this debacle was happening was hilarious. I think there are only 2 successful FG made from 64 out within the past 20 years?
lilredrooster
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September 14th, 2022 at 10:48:46 AM permalink
Quote: Vegasrider

Watching the Payton cast when this debacle was happening was hilarious. I think there are only 2 successful FG made from 64 out within the past 20 years?
link to original post




nope - one successful one from 66 yards out

after that - the next further in NFL history is 63

it would have been the 2nd furthest field goal in NFL history if he made it

the Coach put in a kicker to make history who was ranked 26th in field goal % in 2021


.
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Mission146
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unJon
September 15th, 2022 at 6:18:53 AM permalink
Steeler Talk:

https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/steeler-talk-week-1/

We've got some NFL fans around here and the Steelers are one of the more popular teams in the league anyway, so I figured I'd try this and keep it going if it ends up being well-received.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
unJon
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September 15th, 2022 at 7:43:30 AM permalink
Good article. Go Steelers.

Was such a mail biter of a game. I’m not sure I’ve ever screamed so much at my TV before. Steelers lose that game without Watt last week. So let’s see how the D plays this week, with the greatest schemer in football history (the Belicheck) on the other sideline. I expect Minkah to regress to the mean a bit, hopefully also on the penalty side of things.

I have high hopes like I do every year.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
mcallister3200
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September 15th, 2022 at 7:44:45 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

Quote: lilredrooster

______________


I don't think any NFL Coach has ever taken this much heat over a decision he made

not that I can recall anyway - the internet era makes it worse for him


.
link to original post



First game, too. Well, at least we can assume that he'll never feel fire like this again, at least, as long as he never finds himself on the hot seat.
link to original post



I think this is just recency bias. Brandon Staley got hammered just as bad not once but twice last year for late game decisions, the timeout that rather than putting both Raiders and Chargers in the playoffs week 17 with a tie ended up being the catalyst for Raiders going for the win being the latest.
Mission146
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September 15th, 2022 at 7:50:39 AM permalink
Quote: unJon

Good article. Go Steelers.

Was such a mail biter of a game. I’m not sure I’ve ever screamed so much at my TV before. Steelers lose that game without Watt last week. So let’s see how the D plays this week, with the greatest schemer in football history (the Belicheck) on the other sideline. I expect Minkah to regress to the mean a bit, hopefully also on the penalty side of things.

I have high hopes like I do every year.
link to original post



Thank you very much! Let's go Steelers!

I definitely agree with your observations. I'm usually the last person to be (as) positive (as possible) about something, but you'd think the Steelers got blown out by twenty with Mitch throwing three picks to hear the radio guys tell it this week.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
AZDuffman
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September 15th, 2022 at 10:55:54 AM permalink
Quote: unJon

Good article. Go Steelers.

Was such a mail biter of a game. I’m not sure I’ve ever screamed so much at my TV before. Steelers lose that game without Watt last week. So let’s see how the D plays this week, with the greatest schemer in football history (the Belicheck) on the other sideline. I expect Minkah to regress to the mean a bit, hopefully also on the penalty side of things.

I have high hopes like I do every year.
link to original post



I took the season under. Last week's game was a case of neither side wanted to win so the Steelers said, "We have to beat the traffic on I-70 so lets get out of here!"

Net 4 turnovers and only win by 3 in OT and only because of multiple Bengals miscues?
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Joeman
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September 15th, 2022 at 12:23:11 PM permalink
I was never a Steelers fan. In fact, back when there was an AFC Central Division, the Steelers were the Jaguars' chief rival. However, there is one thing that has always impressed me about the organization, and that is this: In my entire lifetime, there have only been 3 Steelers head coaches, and I ain't no spring chicken. That is just unheard of in today's "what have you done for me lately" NFL world. Hell, the Jaguars have had 3 different head coaches in the past 22 months!
"Dealer has 'rock'... Pay 'paper!'"
SOOPOO
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September 15th, 2022 at 12:29:58 PM permalink
TJ may be the best defensive player in the NFL. His absence is huge. I don’t think the books are giving him enough credit. This is a game between two bad teams. But I’ll root for the Steelers over the Pats any day!
unJon
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September 15th, 2022 at 1:18:10 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

TJ may be the best defensive player in the NFL. His absence is huge. I don’t think the books are giving him enough credit. This is a game between two bad teams. But I’ll root for the Steelers over the Pats any day!
link to original post



Puck the Fats
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
mcallister3200
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September 15th, 2022 at 1:26:14 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

TJ may be the best defensive player in the NFL. His absence is huge. I don’t think the books are giving him enough credit. This is a game between two bad teams. But I’ll root for the Steelers over the Pats any day!
link to original post



I can't let the Aaron Donald slander pass without comment.
DRich
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September 15th, 2022 at 4:55:55 PM permalink
I will be surprised if the Steelers are better than a 9-8 team.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
DRich
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September 16th, 2022 at 4:35:48 PM permalink
Two interesting football games tonight. I will be rooting for Louisville and would take the 17 points with a bad Wyoming team.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
SOOPOO
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September 16th, 2022 at 9:01:19 PM permalink
Quote: mcallister3200

Quote: SOOPOO

TJ may be the best defensive player in the NFL. His absence is huge. I don’t think the books are giving him enough credit. This is a game between two bad teams. But I’ll root for the Steelers over the Pats any day!
link to original post



I can't let the Aaron Donald slander pass without comment.
link to original post



He may have had one sack against the Bills, but he was pretty easily neutralized. He is certainly great, but I think (until his injury) TJ was better.
SOOPOO
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September 16th, 2022 at 9:03:00 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

Two interesting football games tonight. I will be rooting for Louisville and would take the 17 points with a bad Wyoming team.
link to original post



I wish you would have told me sooner as I guessed to take AF laying the points. It’s only money. I did have FSU of course for less $$…..
DRich
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September 17th, 2022 at 5:37:56 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: DRich

Two interesting football games tonight. I will be rooting for Louisville and would take the 17 points with a bad Wyoming team.
link to original post



I wish you would have told me sooner as I guessed to take AF laying the points. It’s only money. I did have FSU of course for less $$…..



I really did not expect Wyoming to win, just thought 17 was too many. As you probably know, AF doesn't throw well and Wyoming had a size advantage in the trenches. Obviously I was happy to saw Wyoming go up 10-0 but when AF took the lead at 14-10 I did not expect Wyoming to score again.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
DRich
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September 17th, 2022 at 6:37:13 AM permalink
A couple of good games today.

Mich St vs Washington
Auburn vs Penn St
BYU vs Oregon
Miami vs Texas AM


I like Notre Dame vs Cal over 41
How can Iowa lay 23.5 against anyone?
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lilredrooster
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September 19th, 2022 at 1:10:41 AM permalink
_____________


what a year this is for the MLB

the Yankees Aaron Judge is closing in on Roger Maris's home run record for the American League

he has 59 with 16 games remaining this season - Maris of course hit 61

Judge also has an excellent shot at the Triple Crown which has only happened 12 times in MLB history

.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/18/sports/baseball/aaron-judge-yankees-triple-crown.html


.
Please don't feed the trolls
AitchTheLetter
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September 19th, 2022 at 1:14:31 AM permalink
If the Ravens hadn't blown the 4th quarter I would have made $545 bucks off the Ravens/Dolphins game.

Had two separate parlays and a single on the game and one of the parlays would have paid out the bulk of that on a $25 free bet for a $300 payout. Still I am up $245 lifetime on sportsbetting. Ill take my winnings and be happy but still gonna be a little salty.
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lilredrooster
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September 19th, 2022 at 2:25:49 AM permalink
______________


Kyler Murray is so much fun to watch - it's players like him that make sports so great

here he is scrambling for a 2 pt. conversion - in the backfield for an incredible 20.8 seconds - Cards went on to win in OT

great, great play


NFL won't let me embed it here so I got you guys the link - fast forward to 7:25 to see the play

.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N5ko_NNMuPE

.
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Sep 19, 2022
Please don't feed the trolls
SOOPOO
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September 19th, 2022 at 4:23:47 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

______________


Kyler Murray is so much fun to watch - it's players like him that make sports so great

here he is scrambling for a 2 pt. conversion - in the backfield for an incredible 20.8 seconds - Cards went on to win in OT

great, great play


NFL won't let me embed it here so I got you guys the link - fast forward to 7:25 to see the play

.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N5ko_NNMuPE

.
link to original post



I saw it live. He apparently ran a total of 84 yards to pick up those 2 yards! I don’t think KM should be considered in the tier of elite QB’s, but the 4th quarter of that game was quite impressive for him.

The Colts suck

The NFL really has the Bills and 31 other teams that wish they were the Bills.

My deep understanding of the NFL would have had the Jets losing as my only ‘sure thing’. Fade me…
DRich
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September 19th, 2022 at 4:44:33 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO


My deep understanding of the NFL would have had the Jets losing as my only ‘sure thing’. Fade me…



The important thing you missed is that betting against the Browns is just as strong of a play as betting against the Jets.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
AZDuffman
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September 19th, 2022 at 2:56:44 PM permalink
Overnight Steelers went from +3.5 to +5 and O/U went down 1.5 to 38.5. Did something happen or am I now just paying closer attention to early lines?
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unJon
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September 19th, 2022 at 3:09:53 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: lilredrooster

______________


Kyler Murray is so much fun to watch - it's players like him that make sports so great

here he is scrambling for a 2 pt. conversion - in the backfield for an incredible 20.8 seconds - Cards went on to win in OT

great, great play


NFL won't let me embed it here so I got you guys the link - fast forward to 7:25 to see the play

.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N5ko_NNMuPE

.
link to original post



I saw it live. He apparently ran a total of 84 yards to pick up those 2 yards! I don’t think KM should be considered in the tier of elite QB’s, but the 4th quarter of that game was quite impressive for him.

The Colts suck

The NFL really has the Bills and 31 other teams that wish they were the Bills.

My deep understanding of the NFL would have had the Jets losing as my only ‘sure thing’. Fade me…
link to original post


(Bold added)

Wow. I cannot believe you would taunt the football gods so.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
SOOPOO
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September 19th, 2022 at 3:39:25 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: lilredrooster

______________


Kyler Murray is so much fun to watch - it's players like him that make sports so great

here he is scrambling for a 2 pt. conversion - in the backfield for an incredible 20.8 seconds - Cards went on to win in OT

great, great play


NFL won't let me embed it here so I got you guys the link - fast forward to 7:25 to see the play

.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N5ko_NNMuPE

.
link to original post



I saw it live. He apparently ran a total of 84 yards to pick up those 2 yards! I don’t think KM should be considered in the tier of elite QB’s, but the 4th quarter of that game was quite impressive for him.

The Colts suck

The NFL really has the Bills and 31 other teams that wish they were the Bills.

My deep understanding of the NFL would have had the Jets losing as my only ‘sure thing’. Fade me…
link to original post


(Bold added)

Wow. I cannot believe you would taunt the football gods so.
link to original post

. It’s true…. but…. the oddsmakers have the Bills now at +475. So is that an implied 1/6 or so chance to win it all? 5/6 I’m pretty disappointed!

Pretty sure the Bills didn’t punt last week. I wonder if a team has ever not punted for two straight weeks?
DRich
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September 19th, 2022 at 3:45:09 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO


Pretty sure the Bills didn’t punt last week. I wonder if a team has ever not punted for two straight weeks?



I will gladly offer you seven cups of coffee to your one cup of coffee that the Bills will have a punt tonight.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
Mission146
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September 20th, 2022 at 5:26:35 AM permalink
Talking Steelers; Week 2!

https://wizardofvegas.com/article/steeler-talk-week-2-and-vitriol/

I also am going to put Monday vitriol and MNF predictions at the end. I'll spoil MNF this time; I got the Bills right, but thought they were laying too much...and...(snicker) I called for a surprise Vikings upset.

Come for the Steelers talk, stay for the vitriol! Or, come for the vitriol and leave when you're done reading that.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
SOOPOO
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September 20th, 2022 at 6:10:40 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: SOOPOO


Pretty sure the Bills didn’t punt last week. I wonder if a team has ever not punted for two straight weeks?



I will gladly offer you seven cups of coffee to your one cup of coffee that the Bills will have a punt tonight.
link to original post

. Glad I didn’t take that bet. But they didn’t punt until almost halftime. We’re you aware Bills hadn’t punted in 4 of their previous 6 games? That had never been done in NFL history before.

The Bills do have a very difficult schedule. And already are being creamed by injuries. Possibly missing 3/4 of starting secondary next week (Hyde, Jackson,White). But Allen is now the best player in football. His most important play was his 10 yard run on 3rd and 9. He would not be denied!
DRich
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September 20th, 2022 at 3:39:25 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

We’re you aware Bills hadn’t punted in 4 of their previous 6 games?



I was not but still would have offered the bet.
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lilredrooster
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September 22nd, 2022 at 4:11:24 AM permalink
Quote: DRich



The important thing you missed is that betting against the Browns is just as strong of a play



the Browns are favored by 4 or 4.5 (right now - that may change) tonight at home against the Steelers

I would say that betting against them tonight is a very good play


.
Please don't feed the trolls
SOOPOO
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September 22nd, 2022 at 4:20:42 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: DRich



The important thing you missed is that betting against the Browns is just as strong of a play



the Browns are favored by 4 or 4.5 (right now - that may change) tonight at home against the Steelers

I would say that betting against them tonight is a very good play


.
link to original post



Pre season the Steelers we’re supposed to be one of the worst teams in the league. And now they lost their best player, TJ Watt. Not saying the Browns are anything special. These are two bad teams. I of course took Steelers money line with the ‘early win at 7’ promotion. I will also take the under. Remember, on pointspread bets I tend to hit nearly 50%!
lilredrooster
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September 22nd, 2022 at 4:42:48 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO




Pre season the Steelers we’re supposed to be one of the worst teams in the league. And now they lost their best player, TJ Watt. Not saying the Browns are anything special




this preseason ranking from SI has the Steelers with 97 points to the Browns 81

and the Steelers are ranked ahead of 11 other teams

of course that was before they lost Watt

and not that it means a lot anyway - just saying -


.
https://www.si.com/nfl/2022/09/06/nfl-preason-power-rankings-bills-packers-rams


.
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AitchTheLetter
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September 22nd, 2022 at 6:11:18 AM permalink
What do yall think about Aaron Judge's chances on hitting a homer tonight?
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Mission146
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September 22nd, 2022 at 7:04:04 AM permalink
Quote: AitchTheLetter

What do yall think about Aaron Judge's chances on hitting a homer tonight?
link to original post



I think it's a good bet if you're getting the boost on it again.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
SOOPOO
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September 22nd, 2022 at 7:36:12 AM permalink
Quote: AitchTheLetter

What do yall think about Aaron Judge's chances on hitting a homer tonight?
link to original post



Around 1/3? Isn’t that around how frequently this year he has hit a home run in games he has started?
SOOPOO
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September 22nd, 2022 at 7:37:27 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

Quote: AitchTheLetter

What do yall think about Aaron Judge's chances on hitting a homer tonight?
link to original post



I think it's a good bet if you're getting the boost on it again.
link to original post



I may know someone who took free money betting on him doing it with boosts and against him without them….
lilredrooster
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September 22nd, 2022 at 7:44:11 AM permalink
Quote: AitchTheLetter

What do yall think about Aaron Judge's chances on hitting a homer tonight?
link to original post




he's hit 60 homers in 143 games - on average he's hit one every 2.38 games

according to the link DraftKings odds for Wednesday were +160

if you bet $1.00 one hundred times that he would hit one you would win 42 times - in a hundred games he would hit about 42

they would have payed you 42*1.60 = $67 profit on your winning bets

you would have lost $1.00 58 times - you would have profited by $9.00 having made 100 bets of $1.00

it looks like it was a great bet with a 9% edge unless I'm missing something or I somehow calculated wrong which is very possible

Mission will straighten me out if I made an error

maybe DraftKings is factoring in pressure - they're speculating that the added pressure will reduce the chances that he'll hit one



https://www.oddsshopper.com/articles/mlb/aaron-judge-home-run-odds-hit-61st-62nd-pirates-wednesday-september-21



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AitchTheLetter
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September 22nd, 2022 at 8:42:09 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

Quote: AitchTheLetter

What do yall think about Aaron Judge's chances on hitting a homer tonight?
link to original post



I think it's a good bet if you're getting the boost on it again.
link to original post



On Draftkings they have it at +205 for him to hit a HR tonight. I haven't checked any of the other sites yet but I threw $5 on it for giggles.

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: AitchTheLetter

What do yall think about Aaron Judge's chances on hitting a homer tonight?
link to original post



Around 1/3? Isn’t that around how frequently this year he has hit a home run in games he has started?
link to original post



He has hit 60 HR in 144 games played. Averages out to one HR every 2.4 games. Though he has had a few multi-HR games so that is just the statistical average not the actual number of games with a HR.
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AZDuffman
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September 22nd, 2022 at 8:43:24 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: DRich



The important thing you missed is that betting against the Browns is just as strong of a play



the Browns are favored by 4 or 4.5 (right now - that may change) tonight at home against the Steelers

I would say that betting against them tonight is a very good play


.
link to original post



I predict Browns 27, Steelers 13.
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Mission146
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lilredrooster
September 22nd, 2022 at 9:04:34 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: AitchTheLetter

What do yall think about Aaron Judge's chances on hitting a homer tonight?
link to original post



Around 1/3? Isn’t that around how frequently this year he has hit a home run in games he has started?
link to original post



Aaron Judge has appeared (to this point in the season) in 143 games and has started in 139 of those games. I do not know if there is a stipulation that cancels the bet if Aaron Judge does not start, but we would assume that he would start anyway.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=judgeaa01&t=b&year=2022

It would appear that he has played no fewer than seven innings in a game, so I am going to go with the 143 number.

Aaron Judge has 60 Home Runs in the season, but has eleven games with multiple Home Runs; as a result, he has hit a Home Run in 49 unique games this season.

The probability of Aaron Judge, based on this season alone, hitting a Home Run is therefore:

(49/143) = 0.34265734265*

I would say that was a great estimate by SOOPOO.

With that, we can calculate a fair Moneyline for this event. The first thing that we want to do is index this to losing $100 or winning x.

(.34265734265 * x) - (.65734265735 * 100) = 0

x = 191.836735

We can confirm this here by placing a Moneyline of 191.836:

https://www.aceodds.com/bet-calculator/odds-converter.html

Which yields an Implied Probability of 34.3% and confirms our findings.

The current odds of this event happening are +195 with the straight bet on DraftKings, so that would imply that we are at a slight advantage straight up as:

(.34265734265 * 195) - (.65734265735 * 100) = 1.08391608175

Thereby yielding an expected profit of $1.08391608175 on this bet just based on Aaron Judge. However, the expected starting pitcher for the Red Sox is Michael Wacha, and as this website notes:

https://www.pinstripealley.com/2022/9/22/23365135/yankees-mlb-rivalry-series-preview-red-sox-aaron-judge-probable-pitchers-taillon

Quoting in part:

Quote:

Michael Wacha has been quite good for the Red Sox, because of course. His 2.61 ERA in 114 innings jumps off the page, and even though he’s been considerably worse by FIP or xERA, its not like he’s been the luckiest guy in the world. He’s seen a three-year decline in his strikeouts, but like Taillon, has traded that for better command in the zone, fewer walks and home runs.



With that, it sounds as though this pitcher gives up fewer home runs than the average pitcher does. However, with the Profit Boosts that I have seen recently being given out, if one of those is offered, then it's pretty much going to be an expected profit regardless of who the pitcher is...as far as I can tell. For example, yesterday's boost on this event was 60%, so if that remains the same, you would want this bet all day.

*Of course, this ignores the matchups against whoever the starting pitcher is against whoever they are playing, which I wouldn't know anything about and wouldn't really know how to analyze particularly well. I guess I would start with what percentage of Home Runs that guy gives up and go from there, but I can't even begin to know where from there would go. Secondly, this wouldn't account for matchups against potential relief pitchers and the probability of those relief pitchers coming in, etc. etc.
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Mission146
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lilredrooster
September 22nd, 2022 at 9:06:35 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: Mission146

Quote: AitchTheLetter

What do yall think about Aaron Judge's chances on hitting a homer tonight?
link to original post



I think it's a good bet if you're getting the boost on it again.
link to original post



I may know someone who took free money betting on him doing it with boosts and against him without them….
link to original post



It wasn't me, but I would tend to believe such a thing is highly likely. Offsetting, as I have mentioned, is something that I like for those with low bankroll such as to guarantee profits and/or make a loss impossible. Even people who do not have a low bankroll may find satisfaction in locking up guaranteed profits on something like this, but making the bet that does not have the boost, it must be mentioned, would detract from the overall value as we would assume it is not a good bet on its own.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
DRich
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September 22nd, 2022 at 11:17:30 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Remember, on pointspread bets I tend to hit nearly 50%!



You are such a braggard. Mine seem to be closer to 40%,
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SOOPOO
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September 22nd, 2022 at 1:04:30 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: Mission146

Quote: AitchTheLetter

What do yall think about Aaron Judge's chances on hitting a homer tonight?
link to original post



I think it's a good bet if you're getting the boost on it again.
link to original post



I may know someone who took free money betting on him doing it with boosts and against him without them….
link to original post



It wasn't me, but I would tend to believe such a thing is highly likely. Offsetting, as I have mentioned, is something that I like for those with low bankroll such as to guarantee profits and/or make a loss impossible. Even people who do not have a low bankroll may find satisfaction in locking up guaranteed profits on something like this, but making the bet that does not have the boost, it must be mentioned, would detract from the overall value as we would assume it is not a good bet on its own.
link to original post



Correct. The EV of all my offers might have been $20 but I liked $13 in free money. And I like giving casinos some -EV bets because (I think?) it is good cover play. Hopefully, I’ll never know!
ksdjdj
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September 22nd, 2022 at 1:24:31 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: DRich



The important thing you missed is that betting against the Browns is just as strong of a play



the Browns are favored by 4 or 4.5 (right now - that may change) tonight at home against the Steelers

I would say that betting against them tonight is a very good play


.
link to original post



Pre season the Steelers we’re supposed to be one of the worst teams in the league. And now they lost their best player, TJ Watt. Not saying the Browns are anything special. These are two bad teams. I of course took Steelers money line with the ‘early win at 7’ promotion. I will also take the under. Remember, on pointspread bets I tend to hit nearly 50%!
link to original post


I "like*** " the Steelers in Tonight's game.

***: Like may be too strong a word, but I did have 250 @ +320 on them to win by 4 (or more).
SOOPOO
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September 22nd, 2022 at 3:41:47 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: DRich



The important thing you missed is that betting against the Browns is just as strong of a play



the Browns are favored by 4 or 4.5 (right now - that may change) tonight at home against the Steelers

I would say that betting against them tonight is a very good play


.
link to original post



Pre season the Steelers we’re supposed to be one of the worst teams in the league. And now they lost their best player, TJ Watt. Not saying the Browns are anything special. These are two bad teams. I of course took Steelers money line with the ‘early win at 7’ promotion. I will also take the under. Remember, on pointspread bets I tend to hit nearly 50%!
link to original post


I "like*** " the Steelers in Tonight's game.

***: Like may be too strong a word, but I did have 250 @ +320 on them to win by 4 (or more).
link to original post



I love your takes!!!! Don’t forget to give me the college long shot pointspread/ over-under parlays. I’m going to try them this week!
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