2018 Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown
Quote: lilredroosterI'm surprised there's not more excitement about Audible. I'm also surprised he's 8/1 on the morning line.
He's done nothing but win.
Could someone please explain to me what the knock on this horse is.
There is a bias in horse racing against NY breds
I went back over it and found that 13 of the 20 entries including Audible and Justify are not listed so they would be winners for a field bet.
Nice pick dude.
I didn't get on this bet this year or in any previous year which qualifies me to be not the sharpest knife in the drawer.
But I will 100% for sure get all over this bet next year.
Lone Sailor has been showing dramatic improvement getting 2nd in the Louisiana Derby.
a couple of weeks ago in a workout he breezed 5 at churchill in 57.6 which is absolutely sizzling.
57.6 then going for mile and a quarter, that is suicide. Thanks for the info, this horse is out for me.Quote: lilredroosterI'm never a big fan of 50/1 shots but still
Lone Sailor has been showing dramatic improvement getting 2nd in the Louisiana Derby.
a couple of weeks ago in a workout he breezed 5 at churchill in 57.6 which is absolutely sizzling.
Quote: speedycrap57.6 then going for mile and a quarter, that is suicide. Thanks for the info, this horse is out for me.
the idea is my friend is that he can turn on the juice whenever he wants - maybe.
not that he's going to explode out of the gate like a fool.
in the Louisiana Derby his jock was able to rate him and the he went from 6th to 1st from 6 furlongs to the top of the stretch
but you want to throw out a 50/1 shot - I'm not going to argue with that. I'm going to throw some pocket change on him in some way
Quote: lilredroosterI remember Fin saying he bet the field in Pool #1 of the Derby futures and it looks like a great bet win or lose paying 6/5.
I went back over it and found that 13 of the 20 entries including Audible and Justify are not listed so they would be winners for a field bet.
Nice pick dude.
I didn't get on this bet this year or in any previous year which qualifies me to be not the sharpest knife in the drawer.
But I will 100% for sure get all over this bet next year.
It's a great bet until Good Magic or Bolt wins...
Quote: lilredroosterI'm never a big fan of 50/1 shots but still
Lone Sailor has been showing dramatic improvement getting 2nd in the Louisiana Derby.
a couple of weeks ago in a workout he breezed 5 at churchill in 57.6 which is absolutely sizzling.
The workout was two weeks ago (so he has most definitely recovered), and most observers liked his next work even better. He is one I have in the 2nd spot of my trifecta. I also put one whole dollar on him on Bovada at 100-1 a few weeks ago.
Quote: DrawingDeadUh-oh.
-snip-
Good luck to some of us.
Uh oh is right, We like the same horses = we are likely screwed.
Horses I would be shocked to see win:
Firenze Fire - Form tailing off in 2018 and a poor post.
Free Drop Billy - Same as above.
Promises Fullfilled - Speed/fade likely and distance challenged.
Bravazo - Same as above.
I would be remiss if I did not mention S. Asumussen's runner Combatant. Asmussen has a way of getting his long shot runners to pick up the pieces in this event. He did it again last year with Lookin At Lee (2nd place). Poor Combatant just can not get a good post draw. This will be his 4th straight event with a far outside post. He is a honest runner from off the pace (closer) and he is returning to Churchill Downs where he got his only win.
Race 10 - Pat Day Mile. Numerous Derby Prep runners are entered here. Looks salty. I like Sporting Chance and Mississippi.
Race 11 - Old Forester Turf. I really have no idea. Ended up on the favorite Deauville and the Chilean runner Kurilov.
Race 14 - MSW - Locomotion looks close to putting it all together.
Quote: FinsRuleNot Instilled Regard? I'd add Instilled Regard, Solomini and Enticed to that list. Probably Combatant and Noble Indy too, simply because of their post draw.
I almost listed Instilled Regard but at least he was a million dollar auction purchase. He was no match for the other California runners in the SA derby. But I would draw a line through that one. He likely needed it after a short break.
Quote: KeeneoneHorses I would be shocked to see win:
Firenze Fire - Form tailing off in 2018 and a poor post.
Free Drop Billy - Same as above.
Promises Fullfilled - Speed/fade likely and distance challenged.
Bravazo - Same as above.
+ Instilled Regard + Combatant + Blended Citizen (just realized that these are all the 50-1's, whatever)
I plan on making an underdog exacta bet. I handicapped the race specifically looking for underdogs that could surprise. I came up with those 4 plus the 3 I mention that "don't have a chance", so that's always comforting.
Enticed and Hofburg will both appreciate the faster pace and have room for improvement. Enticed ran a tough Wood and I like Hofburg's meteoric rise between races. Further, their posts are fine. I like Noble Indy, but 19 is tough.
I deliberately left out Solomini who can win if he finally gets it together.
Quote: lilredroosterright now thundershowers are forecast for Louisville at 4, 5, 6, and 7p.m.
Today is safe... but weather.com shows rain from 5am-7pm tomorrow!
Edit: ABC affiliate in Louisville is showing "isolated rain and thunder" tonight. Nobody knows, we'll see.
pretty astounding to get a show payout that large on a horse that strong and even when the favorite was also in the money. omg she might have paid $4.50 to show if Midnight got beat out of 3rd.
I chalk it to up to soft money once in a blue moon bettors like the old days before casinos and legal lotteries when thousands of people went to the local track every Saturday looking for cute jockeys, lucky numbers and pretty colors.
It made him look cheap and bitter in front of millions. So sad.
Edit: And that Vino Rosso (18) and Magnum Moon (16) will be will outside the top 5 (Good Magic should go off at about half of each, a significant margin).
Quote: lilredroosterJohnny Velazquez made a totally unjustified objection against Monomoy.
It made him look cheap and bitter in front of millions. So sad.
REALLY ? Per the chart the winner came out and brushed Johnny's mount several times !!!
Quote: edwardjsmithREALLY ? Per the chart the winner came out and brushed Johnny's mount several times !!!
Since it was on NBC you got to have a play by play analysis of the supposed foul (instead of them replaying it 5 times with no analysis). The announcers were 100% against it, almost offended it was objected to.
Quote: ahiromuSince it was on NBC you got to have a play by play analysis of the supposed foul (instead of them replaying it 5 times with no analysis). The announcers were 100% against it, almost offended it was objected to.
I guess the guy who wrote the chart was drunk.
7/2 Justify
5/1 My Boy Jack
5/1 Mendelssohn
6/1 Audible
8/1 Good Magic
9/1 Bolt D'oro
13/1 Magnum Moon
18/1 Vino Rosso
There's been surprising early money to the tune of $156k & change coming in on... My Boy Jack? So I dug into My Boy a little bit, and I still don't get Jack. The best theory I have on that: He's officially listed as owned by the "Don'tTellMyWife" stable, so maybe what Wife isn't to be Told is that hubby(s) just dumped about $150 thou on a morning line 30/1 shot. And good luck with that.
If I am going to play various races throughout the day aside from the Derby, should I start a "trip report"?
Scat Daddy sired 4 of the horses in this year's Derby - Justify, Mendelssohn, Flameaway and Combatant
Scat Daddy died in 2015 at age 11
R.I.P. Scat Dude
very strong favorite imho in the Turf Classic race 11 if it actually gets run on Turf
#10 Beach Patrol
Quote: lilredroosterJohnny Velazquez made a totally unjustified objection against Monomoy.
It made him look cheap and bitter in front of millions. So sad.
I respect your opinion, but I disagree with you completely. There was bumping, and the bumping was all Monomoy coming in on Gadot. The final margin was tight. It also caused Gadot to change leads. I'm not saying the stewards made the wrong call (although I think it was a lot closer than everyone else does), but I think the objection was completely warranted. It's funny how we can see the same replay and come to totally different conclusions.
Quote: ahiromuSince it was on NBC you got to have a play by play analysis of the supposed foul (instead of them replaying it 5 times with no analysis). The announcers were 100% against it, almost offended it was objected to.
The announcers are the same that also were not impressed at all when Justify won a Grade I and beat Bolt D'Oro by 3 lengths in his 3rd start.
I saw the stretch run the exact same way. Gadot was bumped and Johnny V described exactly what happened. I did not believe there was a foul and the Stewards made the right call. The announcers sounded like they had bet the farm on M Girl with their commentary about the objection. They should have explained the objection process better and been more patient with their opinions. M Girl was just better in the Oaks and she is quite the looker with that chestnut coat.Quote: FinsRuleI respect your opinion, but I disagree with you completely. There was bumping, and the bumping was all Monomoy coming in on Gadot. The final margin was tight. It also caused Gadot to change leads. I'm not saying the stewards made the wrong call (although I think it was a lot closer than everyone else does), but I think the objection was completely warranted. It's funny how we can see the same replay and come to totally different conclusions.
I certainly was not blown away by Justify's SA Derby win.Quote: FinsRuleThe announcers are the same that also were not impressed at all when Justify won a Grade I and beat Bolt D'Oro by 3 lengths in his 3rd start.
With about $100 invested I caught the Exacta ($5 = ~$240) and the late Pick 3 ($2 = ~$40), so it was an ok day. I did bet less due to the rain in the forecast for Fri/Sat. If Gadot could have outfinished M Girl it would have been a very good day. I did not put M Girl in the Oaks/Derby due to her favoritism, but I still have a $1 Special Pick 3 alive to the Old Forester/Derby.Quote: KeeneoneKentucky Oaks;
My top 3:
#2 - Coach Rocks
#5 - Wonder Gadot
#14 - Monomoy Girl
If the track ends up sloppy/wet, I would probably drop Coach Rocks and add one of these 2:
#3 - Classy Act
#10 - Midnight Bisou
Sat Apr 28:
Race #9 - Masked (3rd betting choice and finished 3rd).
Sat May 4:
Race #6 - Abel Tasman (Favorite and finished 4th)
Race #8 - Hoppertunity (4th choice and finished 4th)
Race #11 - Raaya (5th choice and finished 13th)
Race #12 - Cognitive (5th choice and finished 5th)
Sat May 5:
Race #1 - Once On Whiskey (Co-favorite and finished 3rd)
I'm sure everybody here who is a regular bettor has seen horses get bumped hard at the start or near the start particularly in large fields.
But unless it's really, really bad almost always nothing is said.
But in the stretch or approaching the stretch even a brushing can trigger an inquiry.
But the thing is, if they get bumped at the start or near the start that can hurt their chances a lot too.
The stronger ones can recover but some can't. But they don't get any consideration.
Or, as Baffert said, "He may be worth a show bet".
Quote: KeeneoneI saw the stretch run the exact same way. Gadot was bumped and Johnny V described exactly what happened. I did not believe there was a foul and the Stewards made the right call.
First thing out of my mouth was "That's not good" when I saw it - agree with you guys and the stewards. It was worth taking a look at, but they shouldn't have changed the results.
Quote: lilredroosterIt's a funny thing to me about the bumping and disqualification issues.
I'm sure everybody here who is a regular bettor has seen horses get bumped hard at the start or near the start particularly in large fields.
I know it isn't "thoroughbred" - but the kind of fouls quarterhorses get away with (specifically the ones running 440y and less) is mind blowing.
Quote: Wizardofoddz123NICE GOOD LUCK
Nice handle.,very creative did you think of that all by yourself.
Quote: ahiromuI know it isn't "thoroughbred" - but the kind of fouls quarterhorses get away with (specifically the ones running 440y and less) is mind blowing.
I get big, big kick out of quarter horses. They're like rockets. At those little tracks they'll fairly often let the strong horses off without crushing them down. Tiny pools though. You shoot yourself in the foot if you make a big bet.
Quote: lilredroosterI get big, big kick out of quarter horses. They're like rockets. At those little tracks they'll fairly often let the strong horses off without crushing them down. Tiny pools though. You shoot yourself in the foot if you make a big bet.
There was a very short lived quarter horse track on Long Island back when I was into horses. Opening night, you couldn't move, the next night there was maybe 200 people. It suspended operations after about a month, and sat empty for decades.
Quote: billryanThere was a very short lived quarter horse track on Long Island back when I was into horses. Opening night, you couldn't move, the next night there was maybe 200 people. It suspended operations after about a month, and sat empty for decades.
I think the little harness tracks are all but gone. Maybe a few left. Had lots of fun there. It was like a small town atmosphere.
Quote: lilredroosterI get big, big kick out of quarter horses. They're like rockets.
That's a good analogy. Specifically, first generation rockets like the V2. You were only "pretty sure" about where they were going.
Long Island, at that time had Roosevelt Raceway, the premier harness track in the country, as well as Belmont, the Palace of the sport of Kings. Roosevelt could handle well over 50,000 but rarely drew more than 2,000 in the 1980s after The Meadowlands opened. It was doomed as the whole complex sat on hundreds of acres of prime real estate. It's long gone, replaced by three shopping malls and hundreds of upscale condos.
Accessing via Chrome on Android. CS had no idea why it would be a problem.
I had a small balance from a couple years back, so I boxed the trifecta.
For the record, 5-7-11-14.
Good luck, all.
Pick another runner to win the race. :)Quote: RSI just wanna bet against Mendelson, how do I do that?
I have seen (in years past) sportsbooks offer matchups between certain horses, but I am not sure who has them this year.
If Audible or Mendellsohn win, I think that means someone's holding onto the only $1 pick 5 ticket.
He said, Quote:
"I know how to win the Kentucky Derby.
I just need a little help from the horse."
like when American Pharoah gave him just a little bit of help.
Quote: lilredroosterVictor Espinoza was just interviewed by Bob Costas.
He said, Quote:
"I know how to win the Kentucky Derby.
I just need a little help from the horse."
like when American Pharoah gave him just a little bit of help.
Mike Smith on Justify: "He's above average."
Thanks Mike.
