speedycrap
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June 6th, 2018 at 8:54:09 AM permalink
Thanks.
FinsRule
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June 6th, 2018 at 11:19:37 AM permalink
Quote: aceofspades

Justify
Hofburg
Barazo



1st Choice over 2nd choice over 3rd choice.
aceofspades
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June 6th, 2018 at 11:36:24 AM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

1st Choice over 2nd choice over 3rd choice.



Yep
Keeneone
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June 6th, 2018 at 11:43:39 AM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

Noble Indy is also owned by Winstar, the part owner of Justify. These part ownership groups are really muddling things.

Good point.

Quote: FinsRule

1st Choice over 2nd choice over 3rd choice.

It takes courage to predict the obvious. :)


So who will Justify resemble this Saturday? I think most would pick AP right now.

Smarty Jones:


Big Brown:


American Pharoah:
ahiromu
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June 6th, 2018 at 12:24:37 PM permalink
Special note that Bolt d'oro makes his age unrestricted debut on the same day in the Metropolitan Handicap (mile). I believe he's better suited for this distance, but I can't bet against Limousine Liberal. Going to be an interesting race as the favorite, Mind Your Biscuits, hasn't run this far since December when he got 2nd as the best of the rest.
Its - Possessive; It's - "It is" / "It has"; There - Location; Their - Possessive; They're - "They are"
aceofspades
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June 6th, 2018 at 12:53:25 PM permalink
Quote: Keeneone

*EXCERPT*Good point.

It takes courage to predict the obvious. :)



Sometimes the horse to beat is the horse to beat
Keeneone
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June 6th, 2018 at 1:10:38 PM permalink
Quote: aceofspades

Sometimes the horse to beat is the horse to beat


Let me fix that for you...
Sometimes the horse to beat is always the horse to beat
I think most like Justify's chances and he is the deserving favorite.

Quote: ahiromu

Special note that Bolt d'oro makes his age unrestricted debut on the same day in the Metropolitan Handicap (mile). I believe he's better suited for this distance, but I can't bet against Limousine Liberal. Going to be an interesting race as the favorite, Mind Your Biscuits, hasn't run this far since December when he got 2nd as the best of the rest.


Wow, Bolt is the M/L second choice in the Met Handicap. He seems aggressively spotted in this one, which could be a sign of confidence from ownership. Even with the weight break (as a 3yo) he seems in over his head, IMHO. Great betting race with lots of ways to go. Sprinters/milers/distance runners all converge @ one mile. FWIW, I like Good Samaritan and Awesome Slew.
lilredrooster
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June 6th, 2018 at 1:47:25 PM permalink
I think I'm going to bet against Justify - I think he's vulnerable but I don't know who might wake up and beat him

so I'll throw him out and throw out Hofburg who rallied to finish 7th in the Derby and has only won one race - a maiden special

then I'll use a strategy called dutching - I'll bet every other horse to win in differing amounts

If Justify is 3/5 and Hofburg as advertised is 4/1 if anyone else wins I should be able to get a payout of about 3/5 or a little bit more than that
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Jun 6, 2018
Please don't feed the trolls
aceofspades
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June 7th, 2018 at 4:40:30 AM permalink
Andy's analysis:




Maggie's and Paul's analyses:

lilredrooster
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June 8th, 2018 at 2:00:15 AM permalink
just checked the weather in NY for tomorrow and the forecast has changed. was calling for rain now only 5% chance. that's good. I'd rather see it on a dry track.
Please don't feed the trolls
aceofspades
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June 8th, 2018 at 11:22:48 AM permalink
DrawingDead
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June 8th, 2018 at 12:50:35 PM permalink
This is making me sad. Since Baffert can't know with any great confidence if he has the timing & dosage of his equine chemistry routine of blood doping & steroid-analogues tuned right for this, I surely don't. But whether he does or doesn't have his peculiar "training" methods exactly on target, I would need to beat his latest synthetic Frankenhorse with something, and I don't see clearly what that would be. Not without planning to see the race to fall apart in a suicidal pace to benefit my wishful thinking on a late grinder that appears to lack tactical speed. Which is not what I'm seeing as the most likely race shape. It may be counter-intuitive given the distance, but this race is not usually all that kind to tactically handicapped one-dimensional pure off-the-pace runners.

When Baffert's pharmacological marvel won three years ago it only cheapened this significant and most publicly prominent aspect of the sport. I think repeating his "accomplishment" tomorrow will only serve to further diminish it to the level of a piddling curiosity. This is not what greatness looks like. I imagine that will be annoying to some who won't want to hear it, but it is what it is, and that's what this is. And that makes me sad.

In other news, with Belmont continuing the recent trend toward packing a lot of their top class marquee events together into just a few 'Super-Duper-Stakes-Festival-Saturday-Extravaganza' dates, I think there are at least several competitive races with some real quality on the card, with a couple of them on the sod.
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aceofspades
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June 8th, 2018 at 12:55:21 PM permalink
Quote: DrawingDead

This is making me sad. Since Baffert can't know with any great confidence if he has the timing & dosage of his equine chemistry routine of blood doping & steroid-analogues tuned right for this, I surely don't. But whether he does or doesn't have his peculiar "training" methods exactly on target, I would need to beat his latest synthetic Frankenhorse with something, and I don't see clearly what that would be. Not without planning to see the race to fall apart in a suicidal pace to benefit my wishful thinking on a late grinder that appears to lack tactical speed. Which is not what I'm seeing as the most likely race shape. It may be counter-intuitive given the distance, but this race is not usually all that kind to tactically handicapped one-dimensional pure off-the-pace runners.

When Baffert's pharmacological marvel won three years ago it only cheapened this significant and most publicly prominent aspect of the sport. I think repeating his "accomplishment" tomorrow will only serve to further diminish it to the level of a piddling curiosity. This is not what greatness looks like. I imagine that will be annoying to some who won't want to hear it, but it is what it is, and that's what this is. And that makes me sad.

In other news, with Belmont continuing the recent trend toward packing a lot of their top class marquee events together into just a few 'Super-Duper-Stakes-Festival-Saturday-Extravaganza' dates, I think there are at least several competitive races with some real quality on the card, with a couple of them on the sod.



It's like the steroid era in baseball - assume everyone is doing it and that makes the stats relative to that era. Even with all the drugs and technology, xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Last edited by: aceofspades on Jun 8, 2018
DrawingDead
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June 8th, 2018 at 2:26:16 PM permalink
Quote: aceofspades

...still no times faster than any horse than the immortal Secretariat in any Triple Crown races

Thank-you for that note.
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
aceofspades
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June 8th, 2018 at 2:48:47 PM permalink
Quote: DrawingDead

Thank-you for that note.



Sarcasm? Genuine?
DrawingDead
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June 8th, 2018 at 3:14:24 PM permalink
Quote: aceofspades

Sarcasm? Genuine?

Nope, actual thanks, not sarcastic. I took the reminder of that tidbit as a little thought nugget to remain cheerful about for the next 24 hrs.

Unless & until the moment they stop the timer in something like 2:233, at which time I'll have to pay a guy named Vinny the Hatchet to hunt you down for committing the obscene cruelty of pointing that out.
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
aceofspades
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June 8th, 2018 at 3:30:52 PM permalink
Quote: DrawingDead

Nope, actual thanks, not sarcastic. I took the reminder of that tidbit as a little thought nugget to remain cheerful about for the next 24 hrs.

Unless & until the moment they stop the timer in something like 2:233, at which time I'll have to pay a guy named Vinny the Hatchet to hunt you down for committing the obscene cruelty of pointing that out.



Ohhh the jinx factor - I am deleting that comment now
billryan
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June 8th, 2018 at 3:32:09 PM permalink
I remember after American Pharaoh won, someone put up his and Big Reds races superimposed on each other. It wasn't pretty.
My nephew is at Belmont today and is buying me $100 worth of $2 and $5 tickets. After AP won, a ticket worth $2.10 at the track sold for 20X that on ebay. Hoping for a repeat.

Not a Baffert fan, but l loved the Justified tv series.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
Keeneone
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June 8th, 2018 at 3:44:30 PM permalink
I have a small $2 Double (Gold Cup/Belmont Stakes) live after Call To Mind (favorite) won the Gold Cup today. So I have Hofburg, Vino Rosso, and Free Drop Billy for tomorrow's event.

I just do not know what to make of Restoring Hope and Noble Indy being entered into the Belmont. It is hard to understand IMO. This field does seem deeper/tougher when compared to the Preakness. But we all know the real challenge is the 12 furlong distance.
aceofspades
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June 8th, 2018 at 3:48:40 PM permalink
Quote: Keeneone

I just do not know what to make of Restoring Hope and Noble Indy being entered into the Belmont. It is hard to understand IMO. This field does seem deeper/tougher when compared to the Preakness. But we all know the real challenge is the 12 furlong distance.



You and me both - owners gonna own
Keeneone
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June 8th, 2018 at 4:04:52 PM permalink
Quote: aceofspades

You and me both - owners gonna own

Yep.
If Justify is sound, fresh, and looking good why enter anyone into the event who could mess things up. But if they think he may be vulnerable (for whatever reason), why is Audible not in the race? It is just confusing.

I continue to land on Vino Rosso when I try to read the tea leaves...
I would also guess this is DD's preferred runner if I am translating his post correctly.
FinsRule
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June 8th, 2018 at 4:22:53 PM permalink
Audible is hurt.
FinsRule
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June 8th, 2018 at 4:24:45 PM permalink
Quote: Keeneone

Yep.
If Justify is sound, fresh, and looking good why enter anyone into the event who could mess things up. But if they think he may be vulnerable (for whatever reason), why is Audible not in the race? It is just confusing.

I continue to land on Vino Rosso when I try to read the tea leaves...
I would also guess this is DD's preferred runner if I am translating his post correctly.



Everyone is picking Hofburg. 4-1 is not going to work for me.

If for some reason he is 6-1 or better, I’d bet on him. I’m singling Justify in my Pick 4.
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
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June 8th, 2018 at 4:26:15 PM permalink
After watching yet another replay unsuccessfully hoping to conjure up something poised to be another Tonalist, what I got for my trouble is my nomination for "uncommonly stupid exceptionally silly race call of the decade" for the very last words gargled into the mike at the finish on the broadcast of this year's Preakness:
Quote:

...and not even the fog can stop him!"


This kind of thing has become much more readily available to anyone & everyone over the last few years, including some using exactly the same data & methodology, but I have them handy sitting right in front of me, so here are my Average Winning Distance pedigree numbers for the Belmont Stakes calculated from weighting the collective race records of the progeny of the sire x 2 together with those of the sire of the dam x 1:

Justify 7.2f
Free Drop Billy 7.5
Bravazo 7.1
Hofburg 7.4
Restoring Hope 7.9
Gronkowski 7.1
Tenfold 7.5
Vino Rosso 7.7
Noble Indy 6.8
Blended Citizen 7.1

I'll be doing nothing with it in this event, but y'all are encouraged to bet the very last dime o' yo granny's cookie jar money on this.
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
Keeneone
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June 8th, 2018 at 4:47:01 PM permalink
Quote: DrawingDead

After watching yet another replay unsuccessfully hoping to conjure up something poised to be another Tonalist, what I got for my trouble is my nomination for "uncommonly stupid exceptionally silly race call of the decade" for the very last words gargled into the mike at the finish on the broadcast of this year's Preakness:

Quote:

...and not even the fog can stop him!"


The fog was very thick!
Thanks for the #'s.

Quote: FinsRule

Audible is hurt.

Wink, wink. He is so hurt he my not race again until July 2018.

Quote: FinsRule

Everyone is picking Hofburg. 4-1 is not going to work for me.

If for some reason he is 6-1 or better, I’d bet on him. I’m singling Justify in my Pick 4.


Lots of buzz on Hofburg, I have even heard him mentioned as the wise guy choice. Vino Rosso would seem the more appropriate fit for the wise guy horse. Based on your opinion of him, why not add Hofburg to the Pick 4? I would guess to save a little $$, because you really like Justify on a fast track.
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
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June 8th, 2018 at 4:55:24 PM permalink
Quote: Keeneone

Yep.
If Justify is sound, fresh, and looking good why enter anyone into the event who could mess things up. But if they think he may be vulnerable (for whatever reason), why is Audible not in the race? It is just confusing.

I continue to land on Vino Rosso when I try to read the tea leaves...
I would also guess this is DD's preferred runner if I am translating his post correctly.

I tried to like Hofburg for this, encouraged by seeing & re-re-seeing his Derby run, showing a lot of horse for the last quarter or more, after losing all momentum being stopped cold twice mid-race with nowhere to go until too late to matter. But like Fins, I just can't buy him here at anything close to this ML price; not with my money with no hint of any speed to call on at all. I don't have any similar Derby excuse available for Vino - nothing that I know of. Tenfold could also be interesting to me, if you showed me authenticated video proving for sure that Baffert's "veterinarian" recently went out to cook more "oats" and caught his Fruit O' The Looms on fire breaking his Erlenmeyer Flask & igniting the Bounder with the stash of all the good stuff into a ball of flame somewhere around Barstow (I can dream). Rumored home movie of The Vet:

Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
Keeneone
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June 8th, 2018 at 5:19:42 PM permalink
Belmont Gold Cup/Belmont Stakes $2 will pays (Pool: $494,391)

Call to Mind ($5.60) with

1) Justify, $16.40
2) Free Drop Billy, $277
3) Bravazo, $95.50
4) Hofburg, $39.20
5) Restoring Hope, $395
6) Gronkowski, $213
7) Tenfold, $80
8) Vino Rosso, $52
9) Noble Indy, $215
10) Blended Citizen, $136
FinsRule
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June 8th, 2018 at 7:27:43 PM permalink
I’m putting a ton of horses in the first 3 legs and hoping for prices. So I can’t afford to add Hofburg or Vino Rosso.

I think I’m playing Vino in my contest.

This P4 strategy worked for me in 2015 with Pharoah. It paid $1150.
aceofspades
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June 8th, 2018 at 8:50:41 PM permalink
Quote: Keeneone

Yep.
If Justify is sound, fresh, and looking good why enter anyone into the event who could mess things up. But if they think he may be vulnerable (for whatever reason), why is Audible not in the race? It is just confusing.

I continue to land on Vino Rosso when I try to read the tea leaves...
I would also guess this is DD's preferred runner if I am translating his post correctly.



Well, a Triple Crown winner, to be worthy, should take on all comers -- I think it makes it even better that there are more horses in the race -- if he wins, nobody can say his connections withheld horses that night have beaten him

I don't think there is the Visa $5million bonus anymore for winning the TC, is there?
FinsRule
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June 8th, 2018 at 8:52:44 PM permalink
No visa bonus. The win is definitely worth more than that in increased stud fees though.
aceofspades
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June 8th, 2018 at 9:03:33 PM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

No visa bonus. The win is definitely worth more than that in increased stud fees though.



Oh, yes indeed.
Johnzimbo
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June 9th, 2018 at 9:48:14 AM permalink
I ended up on Blended Citizen, so feel free to toss him.
FinsRule
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June 9th, 2018 at 12:59:48 PM permalink
Quote: Johnzimbo

I ended up on Blended Citizen, so feel free to toss him.



His workouts have been bad. He’s been tossed.
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
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June 9th, 2018 at 2:09:18 PM permalink
My Belmont day is 90% done, after cashing my one and only major play of the day (actually my only wager of any size or shape) in the 8th, with a decent if not spectacular payout across the board on A Raving Beauty ($9.30, $5.20, $3.70) in the only stakes race today on that wonderful majestic Widener Turf Course. Now my job is to not piss it back screwing around on piddling stuff where I don't really have much of anything. Apart from being especially kind to my bankroll year after year, on a purely sporting level that eccentric bigger 2nd turf track with the more sweeping turns outside the other tighter one is my most favorite thing about Belmont Park.

If the price is at least around 9/2-ish or somewhere north of that, there's a possibility I may make a much smaller more speculative bet on Robert Bruce in the 10th. That's the other turf route stakes, this one for males at 10 furlongs, but on the Inner Turf Course. The difference between running on the Inner & Widener courses really matters. But I don't expect to make even that smaller bet, if he's going to post as something like third choice and takes enough money to become almost a co-second favorite behind the multiple Grade 1 & $2.5 million winning Beach Patrol, who has been off the board exactly once by a scant head in two years of exclusively top class turf distance competition. And regardless of that, I'll also be interested in watching both the tote board action & the run of the lightly raced Irish colt Alexios Knomnenos, but won't be putting a nickel of mine on him here. I also plan to enjoy the announcer & race-caller torture that I expect will be attached to that entry.

Then since I have nothing good cooking in that other thing or any other doings on that other not so green track, it will be time for me to chant "I will not bet this Belmont, I will not bet this Belmont, I will not..." as I resolve to spectate. So I can say sincere good luck to all in that one.



EDIT: There's an overlay specifically in the show pool, so that's where I went with a small wager on Robert Bruce. Loading now.

RE-EDIT: Phfffft. Now you can stick a fork in me. Right bet, wrong result. Unless they pay me something for easily winning the gallop-out after the wire.

Last edited by: DrawingDead on Jun 9, 2018
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FinsRule
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June 9th, 2018 at 3:39:52 PM permalink
Only 21% if show pool on Justify.

$100 to show Justify

Hofburg is a good bet at 6/1. I’m not doing it though.
odiousgambit
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June 9th, 2018 at 3:59:26 PM permalink
Justify has done it!
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
aceofspades
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June 9th, 2018 at 4:05:09 PM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

Justify has done it!





WOW! WOW! WOW!
Wire to wire!
CONGRATULATIONS TO A TREMENDOUS CHAMPION AND ATHLETE!!!
Keeneone
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Thanked by
aceofspades
June 9th, 2018 at 4:11:03 PM permalink
Tip of the hat to Justify. Well done.
----------

Thanks to all for a great 2018 Kentucky Derby thread.
lilredrooster
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June 10th, 2018 at 1:24:04 AM permalink
although we can't know the relative conditions of the track surfaces which could effect my calculation it would probably make only a small difference


Justify: final time: 2:28.18

Secretariat final time: 2:24.00


𝗦𝗲𝗰𝗿𝗲𝘁𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗮𝘁 𝘄𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗵𝗮𝘃𝗲 𝗯𝗲𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗻 𝗝𝘂𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗳𝘆 𝗯𝘆 𝗮𝗯𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝟮𝟭 𝗹𝗲𝗻𝗴𝘁𝗵𝘀
Please don't feed the trolls
billryan
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June 10th, 2018 at 9:35:42 AM permalink
Justify didn't outrun a bear, just every opponent he met.

If you are waiting for someone to challenge Big Reds Belmont time, the wait will be quite long.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
FinsRule
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June 10th, 2018 at 9:53:19 AM permalink
Agree 100% Billryan.

Also, we still have not seen close to the best of Justify. We probably never will. Same thing as Pharoah.

We saw the best of Arrogate, and it was amazing to see.
aceofspades
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June 10th, 2018 at 10:09:59 AM permalink
If I was the majority stakeholder of Justify, I would retire him right now - winning another race will likely not increase his stud fees and the risk of injury is not worth it

What say you...?
ThatDonGuy
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June 10th, 2018 at 11:49:08 AM permalink
Quote: aceofspades

If I was the majority stakeholder of Justify, I would retire him right now - winning another race will likely not increase his stud fees and the risk of injury is not worth it

What say you...?


Disagree. If he wins the Breeders Cup Classic, maybe, but it didn't hurt Alysheba any to race him as a four-year-old. And yes, I am aware Alysheba didn't win the Triple Crown.

And to think we might have been able to get him for $525,000... (that's the trouble with auctions; we have no idea how high the winner was going to go)
steverand
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June 10th, 2018 at 11:56:56 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

although we can't know the relative conditions of the track surfaces which could effect my calculation it would probably make only a small difference


Justify: final time: 2:28.18

Secretariat final time: 2:24.00


𝗦𝗲𝗰𝗿𝗲𝘁𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗮𝘁 𝘄𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗵𝗮𝘃𝗲 𝗯𝗲𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗻 𝗝𝘂𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗳𝘆 𝗯𝘆 𝗮𝗯𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝟮𝟭 𝗹𝗲𝗻𝗴𝘁𝗵𝘀

Triple Crown a little easier now. Not taking anything away from winners, but since point system went into effect to qualify, all 6 Derby winners have been favorites. All winners won qualifying races and also-rans qualified too. Plus for last 15 years 40% of highest auction yearling and 2 year olds have been bought and taken by overseas owners. Imagine if 40% of 1st round choices in NFL went overseas. Congratulations to Justify all the same,PS 20 horse field is just stupid !
FinsRule
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June 10th, 2018 at 12:10:19 PM permalink
Quote: aceofspades

If I was the majority stakeholder of Justify, I would retire him right now - winning another race will likely not increase his stud fees and the risk of injury is not worth it

What say you...?



He is insured, so there is no risk of injury.

If I were majority stakeholder, id retire him. But if I could afford to be majority stakeholder, maybe I wouldn’t.

Does that make sense?
aceofspades
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June 10th, 2018 at 12:40:22 PM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

He is insured, so there is no risk of injury.

If I were majority stakeholder, id retire him. But if I could afford to be majority stakeholder, maybe I wouldn’t.

Does that make sense?



Perfect sense
Insurance and all, he is undefeated and can retire as such as a Triple Crown winner - people will talk forever about "what he might have accomplished" if he retires - I like that idea
beachbumbabs
beachbumbabs
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June 10th, 2018 at 12:50:48 PM permalink
Quote: steverand

Triple Crown a little easier now. Not taking anything away from winners, but since point system went into effect to qualify, all 6 Derby winners have been favorites. All winners won qualifying races and also-rans qualified too. Plus for last 15 years 40% of highest auction yearling and 2 year olds have been bought and taken by overseas owners. Imagine if 40% of 1st round choices in NFL went overseas. Congratulations to Justify all the same,PS 20 horse field is just stupid !



You can tell an old horse guy, but you can't tell him much.

Bye, Buzz.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
billryan
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June 10th, 2018 at 9:02:59 PM permalink
I'm old fashioned. If a horse doesn't compete and win against older horses and if he doesn't win in handicap races, he just isn't on my All-Time list, Triple Crown or not. I can't think of an unworthy horse that has won the TC, but that alone does not seal the deal, in my book. One of the greatest horses of all time, Forego never won a Triple Crown race.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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June 11th, 2018 at 1:35:27 AM permalink
what ruins the enjoyment of Justify for me is Baffert.......................a trainer winning this year at 31% and in the money at 62% ................𝐎𝐔𝐓𝐑𝐀𝐆𝐄𝐎𝐔𝐒



2 triple crowns in 3 years

why is one trainer dominating the sport to this extent? IDK. Dead has offered some answers.

are his skills as a trainer that much greater than his rivals? I doubt it

I can't stand the guy. when I see him I want to puke. I'm suspicious.


I dislike him so much I refuse to bet on his horses even though I know I would fatten my wallet if I did
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Jun 11, 2018
Please don't feed the trolls
aceofspades
aceofspades
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June 12th, 2018 at 6:40:57 PM permalink
Interesting:

https://twitter.com/TheNYRA/status/1006173748205006853
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