2018 Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown
Quote: aceofspadesJustify
Hofburg
Barazo
1st Choice over 2nd choice over 3rd choice.
Quote: FinsRule1st Choice over 2nd choice over 3rd choice.
Yep
Good point.Quote: FinsRuleNoble Indy is also owned by Winstar, the part owner of Justify. These part ownership groups are really muddling things.
It takes courage to predict the obvious. :)Quote: FinsRule1st Choice over 2nd choice over 3rd choice.
So who will Justify resemble this Saturday? I think most would pick AP right now.
Smarty Jones:
Big Brown:
American Pharoah:
Quote: Keeneone*EXCERPT*Good point.
It takes courage to predict the obvious. :)
Sometimes the horse to beat is the horse to beat
Quote: aceofspadesSometimes the horse to beat is the horse to beat
Let me fix that for you...
Sometimes the horse to beat is always the horse to beat
I think most like Justify's chances and he is the deserving favorite.
Quote: ahiromuSpecial note that Bolt d'oro makes his age unrestricted debut on the same day in the Metropolitan Handicap (mile). I believe he's better suited for this distance, but I can't bet against Limousine Liberal. Going to be an interesting race as the favorite, Mind Your Biscuits, hasn't run this far since December when he got 2nd as the best of the rest.
Wow, Bolt is the M/L second choice in the Met Handicap. He seems aggressively spotted in this one, which could be a sign of confidence from ownership. Even with the weight break (as a 3yo) he seems in over his head, IMHO. Great betting race with lots of ways to go. Sprinters/milers/distance runners all converge @ one mile. FWIW, I like Good Samaritan and Awesome Slew.
so I'll throw him out and throw out Hofburg who rallied to finish 7th in the Derby and has only won one race - a maiden special
then I'll use a strategy called dutching - I'll bet every other horse to win in differing amounts
If Justify is 3/5 and Hofburg as advertised is 4/1 if anyone else wins I should be able to get a payout of about 3/5 or a little bit more than that
Maggie's and Paul's analyses:
When Baffert's pharmacological marvel won three years ago it only cheapened this significant and most publicly prominent aspect of the sport. I think repeating his "accomplishment" tomorrow will only serve to further diminish it to the level of a piddling curiosity. This is not what greatness looks like. I imagine that will be annoying to some who won't want to hear it, but it is what it is, and that's what this is. And that makes me sad.
In other news, with Belmont continuing the recent trend toward packing a lot of their top class marquee events together into just a few 'Super-Duper-Stakes-Festival-Saturday-Extravaganza' dates, I think there are at least several competitive races with some real quality on the card, with a couple of them on the sod.
Quote: DrawingDeadThis is making me sad. Since Baffert can't know with any great confidence if he has the timing & dosage of his equine chemistry routine of blood doping & steroid-analogues tuned right for this, I surely don't. But whether he does or doesn't have his peculiar "training" methods exactly on target, I would need to beat his latest synthetic Frankenhorse with something, and I don't see clearly what that would be. Not without planning to see the race to fall apart in a suicidal pace to benefit my wishful thinking on a late grinder that appears to lack tactical speed. Which is not what I'm seeing as the most likely race shape. It may be counter-intuitive given the distance, but this race is not usually all that kind to tactically handicapped one-dimensional pure off-the-pace runners.
When Baffert's pharmacological marvel won three years ago it only cheapened this significant and most publicly prominent aspect of the sport. I think repeating his "accomplishment" tomorrow will only serve to further diminish it to the level of a piddling curiosity. This is not what greatness looks like. I imagine that will be annoying to some who won't want to hear it, but it is what it is, and that's what this is. And that makes me sad.
In other news, with Belmont continuing the recent trend toward packing a lot of their top class marquee events together into just a few 'Super-Duper-Stakes-Festival-Saturday-Extravaganza' dates, I think there are at least several competitive races with some real quality on the card, with a couple of them on the sod.
It's like the steroid era in baseball - assume everyone is doing it and that makes the stats relative to that era. Even with all the drugs and technology, xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Thank-you for that note.Quote: aceofspades...still no times faster than any horse than the immortal Secretariat in any Triple Crown races
Quote: DrawingDeadThank-you for that note.
Sarcasm? Genuine?
Nope, actual thanks, not sarcastic. I took the reminder of that tidbit as a little thought nugget to remain cheerful about for the next 24 hrs.Quote: aceofspadesSarcasm? Genuine?
Unless & until the moment they stop the timer in something like 2:233, at which time I'll have to pay a guy named Vinny the Hatchet to hunt you down for committing the obscene cruelty of pointing that out.
Quote: DrawingDeadNope, actual thanks, not sarcastic. I took the reminder of that tidbit as a little thought nugget to remain cheerful about for the next 24 hrs.
Unless & until the moment they stop the timer in something like 2:233, at which time I'll have to pay a guy named Vinny the Hatchet to hunt you down for committing the obscene cruelty of pointing that out.
Ohhh the jinx factor - I am deleting that comment now
My nephew is at Belmont today and is buying me $100 worth of $2 and $5 tickets. After AP won, a ticket worth $2.10 at the track sold for 20X that on ebay. Hoping for a repeat.
Not a Baffert fan, but l loved the Justified tv series.
I just do not know what to make of Restoring Hope and Noble Indy being entered into the Belmont. It is hard to understand IMO. This field does seem deeper/tougher when compared to the Preakness. But we all know the real challenge is the 12 furlong distance.
Quote: KeeneoneI just do not know what to make of Restoring Hope and Noble Indy being entered into the Belmont. It is hard to understand IMO. This field does seem deeper/tougher when compared to the Preakness. But we all know the real challenge is the 12 furlong distance.
You and me both - owners gonna own
Yep.Quote: aceofspadesYou and me both - owners gonna own
If Justify is sound, fresh, and looking good why enter anyone into the event who could mess things up. But if they think he may be vulnerable (for whatever reason), why is Audible not in the race? It is just confusing.
I continue to land on Vino Rosso when I try to read the tea leaves...
I would also guess this is DD's preferred runner if I am translating his post correctly.
Quote: KeeneoneYep.
If Justify is sound, fresh, and looking good why enter anyone into the event who could mess things up. But if they think he may be vulnerable (for whatever reason), why is Audible not in the race? It is just confusing.
I continue to land on Vino Rosso when I try to read the tea leaves...
I would also guess this is DD's preferred runner if I am translating his post correctly.
Everyone is picking Hofburg. 4-1 is not going to work for me.
If for some reason he is 6-1 or better, I’d bet on him. I’m singling Justify in my Pick 4.
Quote:...and not even the fog can stop him!"
This kind of thing has become much more readily available to anyone & everyone over the last few years, including some using exactly the same data & methodology, but I have them handy sitting right in front of me, so here are my Average Winning Distance pedigree numbers for the Belmont Stakes calculated from weighting the collective race records of the progeny of the sire x 2 together with those of the sire of the dam x 1:
Justify 7.2f
Free Drop Billy 7.5
Bravazo 7.1
Hofburg 7.4
Restoring Hope 7.9
Gronkowski 7.1
Tenfold 7.5
Vino Rosso 7.7
Noble Indy 6.8
Blended Citizen 7.1
I'll be doing nothing with it in this event, but y'all are encouraged to bet the very last dime o' yo granny's cookie jar money on this.
Quote: DrawingDeadAfter watching yet another replay unsuccessfully hoping to conjure up something poised to be another Tonalist, what I got for my trouble is my nomination for "uncommonly stupid exceptionally silly race call of the decade" for the very last words gargled into the mike at the finish on the broadcast of this year's Preakness:
Quote:...and not even the fog can stop him!"
The fog was very thick!
Thanks for the #'s.
Wink, wink. He is so hurt he my not race again until July 2018.Quote: FinsRuleAudible is hurt.
Quote: FinsRuleEveryone is picking Hofburg. 4-1 is not going to work for me.
If for some reason he is 6-1 or better, I’d bet on him. I’m singling Justify in my Pick 4.
Lots of buzz on Hofburg, I have even heard him mentioned as the wise guy choice. Vino Rosso would seem the more appropriate fit for the wise guy horse. Based on your opinion of him, why not add Hofburg to the Pick 4? I would guess to save a little $$, because you really like Justify on a fast track.
I tried to like Hofburg for this, encouraged by seeing & re-re-seeing his Derby run, showing a lot of horse for the last quarter or more, after losing all momentum being stopped cold twice mid-race with nowhere to go until too late to matter. But like Fins, I just can't buy him here at anything close to this ML price; not with my money with no hint of any speed to call on at all. I don't have any similar Derby excuse available for Vino - nothing that I know of. Tenfold could also be interesting to me, if you showed me authenticated video proving for sure that Baffert's "veterinarian" recently went out to cook more "oats" and caught his Fruit O' The Looms on fire breaking his Erlenmeyer Flask & igniting the Bounder with the stash of all the good stuff into a ball of flame somewhere around Barstow (I can dream). Rumored home movie of The Vet:Quote: KeeneoneYep.
If Justify is sound, fresh, and looking good why enter anyone into the event who could mess things up. But if they think he may be vulnerable (for whatever reason), why is Audible not in the race? It is just confusing.
I continue to land on Vino Rosso when I try to read the tea leaves...
I would also guess this is DD's preferred runner if I am translating his post correctly.
Call to Mind ($5.60) with
1) Justify, $16.40
2) Free Drop Billy, $277
3) Bravazo, $95.50
4) Hofburg, $39.20
5) Restoring Hope, $395
6) Gronkowski, $213
7) Tenfold, $80
8) Vino Rosso, $52
9) Noble Indy, $215
10) Blended Citizen, $136
I think I’m playing Vino in my contest.
This P4 strategy worked for me in 2015 with Pharoah. It paid $1150.
Quote: KeeneoneYep.
If Justify is sound, fresh, and looking good why enter anyone into the event who could mess things up. But if they think he may be vulnerable (for whatever reason), why is Audible not in the race? It is just confusing.
I continue to land on Vino Rosso when I try to read the tea leaves...
I would also guess this is DD's preferred runner if I am translating his post correctly.
Well, a Triple Crown winner, to be worthy, should take on all comers -- I think it makes it even better that there are more horses in the race -- if he wins, nobody can say his connections withheld horses that night have beaten him
I don't think there is the Visa $5million bonus anymore for winning the TC, is there?
Quote: FinsRuleNo visa bonus. The win is definitely worth more than that in increased stud fees though.
Oh, yes indeed.
Quote: JohnzimboI ended up on Blended Citizen, so feel free to toss him.
His workouts have been bad. He’s been tossed.
If the price is at least around 9/2-ish or somewhere north of that, there's a possibility I may make a much smaller more speculative bet on Robert Bruce in the 10th. That's the other turf route stakes, this one for males at 10 furlongs, but on the Inner Turf Course. The difference between running on the Inner & Widener courses really matters. But I don't expect to make even that smaller bet, if he's going to post as something like third choice and takes enough money to become almost a co-second favorite behind the multiple Grade 1 & $2.5 million winning Beach Patrol, who has been off the board exactly once by a scant head in two years of exclusively top class turf distance competition. And regardless of that, I'll also be interested in watching both the tote board action & the run of the lightly raced Irish colt Alexios Knomnenos, but won't be putting a nickel of mine on him here. I also plan to enjoy the announcer & race-caller torture that I expect will be attached to that entry.
Then since I have nothing good cooking in that other thing or any other doings on that other not so green track, it will be time for me to chant "I will not bet this Belmont, I will not bet this Belmont, I will not..." as I resolve to spectate. So I can say sincere good luck to all in that one.
EDIT: There's an overlay specifically in the show pool, so that's where I went with a small wager on Robert Bruce. Loading now.
RE-EDIT: Phfffft. Now you can stick a fork in me. Right bet, wrong result. Unless they pay me something for easily winning the gallop-out after the wire.
$100 to show Justify
Hofburg is a good bet at 6/1. I’m not doing it though.
Quote: odiousgambitJustify has done it!
WOW! WOW! WOW!
Wire to wire!
CONGRATULATIONS TO A TREMENDOUS CHAMPION AND ATHLETE!!!
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Thanks to all for a great 2018 Kentucky Derby thread.
Justify: final time: 2:28.18
Secretariat final time: 2:24.00
𝗦𝗲𝗰𝗿𝗲𝘁𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗮𝘁 𝘄𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗵𝗮𝘃𝗲 𝗯𝗲𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗻 𝗝𝘂𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗳𝘆 𝗯𝘆 𝗮𝗯𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝟮𝟭 𝗹𝗲𝗻𝗴𝘁𝗵𝘀
If you are waiting for someone to challenge Big Reds Belmont time, the wait will be quite long.
Also, we still have not seen close to the best of Justify. We probably never will. Same thing as Pharoah.
We saw the best of Arrogate, and it was amazing to see.
What say you...?
Quote: aceofspadesIf I was the majority stakeholder of Justify, I would retire him right now - winning another race will likely not increase his stud fees and the risk of injury is not worth it
What say you...?
Disagree. If he wins the Breeders Cup Classic, maybe, but it didn't hurt Alysheba any to race him as a four-year-old. And yes, I am aware Alysheba didn't win the Triple Crown.
And to think we might have been able to get him for $525,000... (that's the trouble with auctions; we have no idea how high the winner was going to go)
Triple Crown a little easier now. Not taking anything away from winners, but since point system went into effect to qualify, all 6 Derby winners have been favorites. All winners won qualifying races and also-rans qualified too. Plus for last 15 years 40% of highest auction yearling and 2 year olds have been bought and taken by overseas owners. Imagine if 40% of 1st round choices in NFL went overseas. Congratulations to Justify all the same,PS 20 horse field is just stupid !Quote: lilredroosteralthough we can't know the relative conditions of the track surfaces which could effect my calculation it would probably make only a small difference
Justify: final time: 2:28.18
Secretariat final time: 2:24.00
𝗦𝗲𝗰𝗿𝗲𝘁𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗮𝘁 𝘄𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗵𝗮𝘃𝗲 𝗯𝗲𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗻 𝗝𝘂𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗳𝘆 𝗯𝘆 𝗮𝗯𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝟮𝟭 𝗹𝗲𝗻𝗴𝘁𝗵𝘀
Quote: aceofspadesIf I was the majority stakeholder of Justify, I would retire him right now - winning another race will likely not increase his stud fees and the risk of injury is not worth it
What say you...?
He is insured, so there is no risk of injury.
If I were majority stakeholder, id retire him. But if I could afford to be majority stakeholder, maybe I wouldn’t.
Does that make sense?
Quote: FinsRuleHe is insured, so there is no risk of injury.
If I were majority stakeholder, id retire him. But if I could afford to be majority stakeholder, maybe I wouldn’t.
Does that make sense?
Perfect sense
Insurance and all, he is undefeated and can retire as such as a Triple Crown winner - people will talk forever about "what he might have accomplished" if he retires - I like that idea
Quote: steverandTriple Crown a little easier now. Not taking anything away from winners, but since point system went into effect to qualify, all 6 Derby winners have been favorites. All winners won qualifying races and also-rans qualified too. Plus for last 15 years 40% of highest auction yearling and 2 year olds have been bought and taken by overseas owners. Imagine if 40% of 1st round choices in NFL went overseas. Congratulations to Justify all the same,PS 20 horse field is just stupid !
You can tell an old horse guy, but you can't tell him much.
Bye, Buzz.
2 triple crowns in 3 years
why is one trainer dominating the sport to this extent? IDK. Dead has offered some answers.
are his skills as a trainer that much greater than his rivals? I doubt it
I can't stand the guy. when I see him I want to puke. I'm suspicious.
I dislike him so much I refuse to bet on his horses even though I know I would fatten my wallet if I did
