2018 Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown

Sunland Derby Race #11
I have Choo Choo already in my barn. His last race was not great and this will be a tough test on the switch to dirt. I kind of like Hollywood Star, but his performance in the Sam Davis was not good enough. I might give him one more shot in this race.

Click on Prince Lucky's Ultimate PPs:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/ToddPletcher/PLETCHER+TODD+A/9999/summary.html

Louisiana Derby
Noble Indy won.
Ihttps://www.kentuckyderby.com/prep-races/louisiana-derby
Sunland Derby
Runaway Ghost won.
https://www.kentuckyderby.com/prep-races/sunland-derby
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My Derby barn is pretty empty this year. Combatant is my lone top 20 horse. I am going to need some amazing performances just to get a few in the gate. 3 races this week: 2 outside the USA and the Florida Derby.

the card for the Florida Derby on Saturday will probably include:

Strike Power
Audible
Promises Fulfilled
Catholic Boy
Millionaire Runner
Storm Runner
Hofburg
Tip Sheet

UAE Derby (Sat 3/31 9:30am EST)
I have a small future ticket on Mendelssohn. Is anyone else worth a look? What about Reride with J. Castellano in the irons?
http://www.emiratesracing.com/node/3?id=2891#tab-11257

Florida Derby - Gulfstream Park Race #14
Mississippi is the one I have in this race. Hopefully he steps up and turns in a big one to make the KDerby.
Click on Audible's Ultimate PPs:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/ToddPletcher/PLETCHER+TODD+A/9999/summary.html
3 of the last 5 Kentucky Derby winners have won this race.

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**Always Dreaming (last year's Derby Winner) returns for his 4 year old debut at Gulfstream Park on Saturday Race #8. He pretty much did nothing after his Derby win, but he seems to be training ok for his return at a mile.**

This is the deepest UAE Derby that I can remember. I think you'll get a decent price on anyone you like.

Rayya is headed to the Kentucky Oaks and Baffert after this. She is for real.

Ruggero has qualified for KY Derby, but I don't think he is going.

Reride was flattered by Sunland Derby.

Mendelssohn didn't look great last time out. I have some money on him for Derby, so I'll be rooting for him.

Gold Town is a horse everyone is talking about. He'll be favored?

Seahenge and Threeandfourpence are O'Brien horses that are improving. I think both are dangerous.

Yulong Warrior looked great last time out.

I don't know much about Taiki Ferveur except he's got a top jock on him.

I'll probably just look at the odds and take a long shot. Usually there's a couple in a race that I can throw out. Not this one.

Saturday is going to be a lot of fun, but also tricky. The Florida Derby is pretty wide open.

Strike Power and Promises Fulfilled should both shoot to the front early just like last race. You'd think that would set up a perfect pace for Audible and Catholic Boy. But you would have thought it would have setup perfect for Good Magic last time out, and he couldn't close at all.

I like Storm Runner again. He was completely stopped last time out. I think the Fountain of Youth is a complete toss for him.

Millionaire Runner and Tip Sheet look completely over-matched.

Hofburg and Mississippi are compromised by post position and lack of graded stakes experience.

Everyone says Audible has been training terribly. I put $25 on him in pool 3.

So I guess I'd like Promises Fulfilled, Catholic Boy, Storm Runner on top of the trifecta with those 3, Audible and Strike Power in the 2nd and 3rd spots.

both the Dubai World Cup and the Florida Derby will be televised on NBCSN which Comcast picks up in its basic offering

I like that a lot. better than watching on a computer





the UAE Derby has got to be a very tricky call. none of those horses have ever taken a trip like that in their lives. and I think the surface is a lot different.

I'm not going to bet it. But if I was I would just bet a handful of shots to win and hope for the best.

I don't know what the speed figures are but Audible's raw times at 8.5 furlongs at Gulfstream on a fast track is 2.25 seconds faster than Promises Fulfilled's and about 2.65 seconds faster than Strike Power's in a different stakes race also at Gulfstream and also on a fast track. That's a big difference.

Quote: FinsRule

-snip-
Mendelssohn didn't look great last time out. I have some money on him for Derby, so I'll be rooting for him.
-snip-

Nice breakdown of the runners in the UAE Derby. Go Mendelssohn!

Quote: lilredrooster

I don't know what the speed figures are but Audible's raw times at 8.5 furlongs at Gulfstream on a fast track is 2.25 seconds faster than Promises Fulfilled's and about 2.65 seconds faster than Strike Power's in a different stakes race also at Gulfstream and also on a fast track. That's a big difference.

Audible's raw time in the Holy Bull does stand out. Was it the best prep race of 2018 or was it something else? Was it more "Holy" or more "Bull"?

Another thing I noticed was the jockey changes in the Florida Derby. For example, Irad Ortiz moves after winning with Promises Fulfilled to ride Catholic Boy.

Deleted - Wrong Thread

here are the PPs for the Florida Derby:

click on Audible - Ultimate PPs - 6 other races from Saturday's Gulfstream card are here too

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/ToddPletcher/PLETCHER+TODD+A/9999/summary.htm

BRISnet PPs for the Dubai card including the UAE Derby are available without charge (along with other international races) from the link on the web page located: HERE.

Scroll down to the "Dubai Racing" row under the "Sat - Mar 31" column. Of course they will look like Greek compared to American past performance lines. If you don't already have a BRIS account I think you might have to take a minute or two to create one, but this download is free.

What's this about Audible not training well, anyone able to elaborate on that?

My pick of the day is in the Gulfstream Park Oaks (R12, Florida Derby is R14). Great trip at the same track and distance while breaking her maiden last trip. Always competitive and I think something may have clicked in that race (where she broke her maiden) - or it was finally getting an elite rider on top. I'd be surprised if she went off at 8-1 (her morning odds).

Quote: ahiromu

My pick of the day is in the Gulfstream Park Oaks (R12, Florida Derby is R14). Great trip at the same track and distance while breaking her maiden last trip. Always competitive and I think something may have clicked in that race (where she broke her maiden) - or it was finally getting an elite rider on top. I'd be surprised if she went off at 8-1 (her morning odds).

You didn't state the horse's name or # but I'm pretty sure you're talking about the #2 horse Coach.

I'm not trying to talk you off a horse you like.

but FWIW in her win last time she was allowed to get a clear lead with a slow pace (24.76 first quarter mile - very slow - 48.77 first half mile - slow)

being allowed to get an early lead like that with a slow pace meant she had plenty left at the end - no pressure

13 horses entered she's not likely to get an easy lead. she's likely to get pressured

she might be a great horse - I'm not saying she's not

and also at those odds 8/1 she does seem to be an overlay, a good bet when considering the odds

trip handicapping - not just the stats - how did she earn her win? - it was an easy win

Good Luck with your bet. I hope you win it.

Quote: lilredrooster

Good Luck with your bet. I hope you win it.

Yeah, that's who I meant. We'll see if I can get her at a good price.

I appreciate the criticism, have to deal with it every day in my job (I don't take it personally) and this is definitely something I can learn more about.

Won't the early turn for the 1 1/16 at GP make the 2 slot more advantageous than her previous 8? I agree she had a great start with a slower field, but if she can get into a decent position and finish like she did in her maiden, she has a shot, I might take it for the entertainment value at 4-5 to 1.

She had a lot of kick in her route turf experiments too, so I don't think extending her maiden win to 8 lengths was a coincidence.

Quote: ahiromu

Won't the early turn for the 1 1/16 at GP make the 2 slot more advantageous than her previous 8?

yeah, if she gets the lead or very close to the lead

if she doesn't get the lead - no

is she the real deal or is she a pretender who needs a setup?

we'll find out won't we

Wow! Mendelssohn won by about 19 lengths and set a track record in the UAE Derby.

Ryan Moore had that horse flying.

Quote: lilredrooster

Wow! Mendelssohn won by about 19 lengths and set a track record in the UAE Derby.

Ryan Moore had that horse flying.

That was something. Some places have him as the favorite now.

I've got a decent amount of money on him, so that works for me.

Quote: ahiromu

I She had a lot of kick in her route turf experiments too, so I don't think extending her maiden win to 8 lengths was a coincidence.

wow! nice call. I really hope I didn't get you off that horse. Should've kept my big mouth shut. Sorry.

Quote: lilredrooster

wow! nice call. I really hope I didn't get you off that horse. Should've kept my big mouth shut. Sorry.

Your criticism was justified* and it was a risk, but when everyone was recommending it and the trainer came on and publicly announced that something had clicked, I knew it wasn't going to be a "steal" anymore. I bet a smaller amount and went with a pick 3 instead. Hoping for the Luis Saez hat trick (very possible).

It was an amazing race, she got a bad start, got stuck in traffic, but was still able to dig deep and finish. Looking forward to watch her in the future.

* - wrongish word before edit

Quote: ahiromu

Your criticism was justified* and it was a risk, but when everyone was recommending it and the trainer came on and publicly announced that something had clicked, I knew it wasn't going to be a "steal" anymore. I bet a smaller amount and went with a pick 3 instead. Hoping for the Luis Saez hat trick (very possible).

It was an amazing race, she got a bad start, got stuck in traffic, but was still able to dig deep and finish. Looking forward to watch her in the future.

* - wrongish word before edit

Nice call on that tough little filly. I thought Coach Rocks lost all chance going into the far turn, but she just keep running.

Audible wins again in the Florida Derby. I thought Miss. was in the perfect spot turning for home, but Audible blew by as did Hofburg. Hofburg really ran a solid race after the pace meltdown up front.

delete

Jerry Bailey is by far the best racing commentator I've ever heard.

A lot can be learned from that guy.

Nice catch

Any hype over Justify running in the SA derby? Grandson of BC Classic winner Ghostzapper (2004) and his allowance mile at SA on 3/11 was down right impressive. Just a hundredth of a second shorter than the BC dirt mile at SA in 2016.

That was the easiest race he could have had though. I'd be afraid he gets overbet against the obvious favorite Bolt. Mike Smith said he could have gone another quarter of a mile, and I really like seeing that kick on the final stretch when considering if they can go further.

Probably one to throw $25 at and just enjoy.

I think whoever wins Saturday - Bolt or Justify - wins the KY Derby.

If I were to give you $100 to make a futures bet right now, who would it be on? Choices:

Mendelssohn 5-1
Bolt D'Oro 7-1
Audible 8-1
Justify 8-1
Good Magic 16-1
Magnum Moon 16-1
Pick any other horse 25-1

I think I'd put my $100 on Bolt. Magnum Moon would be tempting also. But I just keep thinking about Justify. His stride reminds me a lot of American Pharoah.

If the 4 in that list that are racing this weekend and next weekend perform well, this Derby will have more depth at the top than any I can remember.

I can't disagree with you. I'd go with Bolt, but with great hesitation. I feel like we haven't seen him perform his best.

That said, as long as a horse backed by chinese money doesn't win, I'll be happy (Audible & Justify).

Quote: ahiromu

Any hype over Justify running in the SA derby? -snip-

People are definitely excited to see him run next time out. He was going to run in the Arkansas Derby but with McKenzie out of the SA Derby Baffert decided to keep Justify in California.

Quote: FinsRule

I think whoever wins Saturday - Bolt or Justify - wins the KY Derby. If I were to give you $100 to make a futures bet right now, who would it be on? Choices:
Mendelssohn 5-1
Bolt D'Oro 7-1
Audible 8-1
Justify 8-1
Good Magic 16-1
Magnum Moon 16-1
Pick any other horse 25-1
I think I'd put my $100 on Bolt. Magnum Moon would be tempting also. But I just keep thinking about Justify. His stride reminds me a lot of American Pharoah. If the 4 in that list that are racing this weekend and next weekend perform well, this Derby will have more depth at the top than any I can remember.

Audible 8-1 - I would land here today, even though I will be rooting for others. He is outrunning his pedigree IMVHO. He is also done with racing (until the K Derby) and came out of the Florida Derby in good shape.

Quote: Keeneone

People are definitely excited to see him run next time out. He was going to run in the Arkansas Derby but with McKenzie out of the SA Derby Baffert decided to keep Justify in California.



Audible 8-1 - I would land here today, even though I will be rooting for others. He is outrunning his pedigree IMVHO. He is also done with racing (until the K Derby) and came out of the Florida Derby in good shape.

I'm getting a vibe on Audible. He's going to win. Fwiw.

Justify will place or show.

Not sure who the third horse in a triwheel would be.

https://twitter.com/NotTheToddster?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

Quote: T.A. Pletcher
@NotTheToddster


I'm the best trainer in the world, obviously.

T.A. Pletcher‏ @NotTheToddster Mar 31

Gonna need a bigger plane to get to Louisville. Already getting calls for measurements. #Derby144

...<SNIP>...

T.A. Pletcher‏ @NotTheToddster Mar 10

Come to Florida, Bob. I need some competition. #TheBaffBePissed

...<SNIP>...

T.A. Pletcher‏ @NotTheToddster Mar 5

Starting to get nervous that I’ll only have 3-4 starters in this year’s Derby. #downyear

My conspiracy theory is that notthetoddster is actually his account.

Justify is a very interesting horse. He's run only twice.

His allowance win in Santa Anita was over a muddy sealed track.

In his maiden win he showed tremendous speed doing the first quarter in under 22 seconds.

I'm not sure what to think of him. But he will be fun to watch. He might be very special, capable of a burst of speed which is the mark of a great runner.



from what I've seen Mendelssohn has to be the most impressive

but he's only run on turf and that sandy, soft stuff in Dubai

will he like the harder dirt at Churchill?

the answer my friend is blowin' in the wind. the answer is blowin, in the wind.

Are Andrew Beyer's books worth reading? In terms if handicapping, I've learned to use DRF PP's to pick the likely wire to wire winner and am building Brisnet PPs (mainly track bias) into my handicapping strategy (I was already doing this for some tracks). However, I have a tough time deciding if a 5-1 shot is worth the money, when place bets make sense, and anything about turf races. Especially downhill turf. Basically, I can only feel confident about dirt sprints right now and that limits my available races - an obvious problem.

If that specific author (Beyer) isn't worth it, please point me in the right direction. You can get a lot of worthless BS horse handicapping advice on the internet... I just want to avoid learning alternative truths.

Quote: ahiromu

Are Andrew Beyer's books worth reading?

IMHO Beyer is the best racing writer ever. Tom Ainslie's book from the 60s "Complete Guide to Thoroughbred Racing" is a classic and can stand the test of time although it was written before exotic betting, if that's your thing.

Beyer is somewhat arrogant and can overwhelm you with details and thinks his way is the only way but I can't deny the value of a lot of what he has written.

Also, on the con side he favors betting longshots which is not often my thing. I don't have the patience.

But yes, in terms of analyzing a race he is excellent, again IMHO.

Beyer wrote for many years for the Washington Post.

this link takes you to I think all of his back articles. of course the races are history but you can see how he looks at a race.

for some reason the search on the Post brought up some other unrelated junk


https://www.washingtonpost.com/newssearch/?query=andrew%20beyer&sort=Relevance&datefilter=All%20Since%202005&spellcheck&startat=0#top

Quote: lilredrooster

Also, on the con side he favors betting longshots which is not often my thing. I don't have the patience.

I wholeheartedly agree about longshots. I enjoy betting on 5-1 underdogs that have closer to a 25-30% chance at winning, but those aren't longshots.

The only exotic worth a damn is an exacta when you can't decide 1 and 2, but you're pretty sure they'll be 1 and 2 (imo). I'll often start with a favorite picked, then talk myself out of it and settle on a two horse exacta box.

Thanks for taking the time.

here are the PPs for the Santa Anita Derby and the Wood Memorial. Click on Restoring Hope and Justify at their ultimate PPs to get them.


note: in the Wood Memorial Brisnet gave the morning line 6/5 favorite Enticed a 104 speed figure for doing a mile in 138.24 on a track recorded as fast
that is not in any way a fast time for a mile in fact it's a slow time. it's almost 6 full seconds off the track record
they compare it to the average times for other races on the same day and I guess those races were very slow which boosted the speed figure for this horse
still, I can't accept it. it makes me suspicious of Brisnet figures. in Brisnet's world 100 or more means very fast.
Brisnet gave Justify the same 104 figure for doing a mile in 135.73 IN THE MUD at Santa Anita.
say whaaat? I get that it's 2 different tracks but still. this is crazy stuff. use their figures at your own risk.


http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/Baffert/BAFFERT_BOB/9999/summary.htm

We've also got the next futures pool opening up tomorrow. The official derby futures page has posted Bris PPs for the previous ones, they aren't up as of writing this https://www.kentuckyderby.com/wager/future-wager .


Lil, is there a reason for the other races running slower during Enticed's last race? It bugs me if they bump up the speed figures because something MUST have been different, and it sounds like there wasnt a valid reason.

I'm going off of memory. I think Justify got a 104 beyer in his 7f debut and a 101 Beyer in his amazing mile allowance race. I'll check Enticed when I get off work.

Keeneland Blue Grass Stakes past performances:
Click on Marconi's ultimate PPs
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/ToddPletcher/PLETCHER+TODD+A/9999/summary.html


Top Beyer figures for 2018:
https://www1.drf.com/drfLeaderBoard.do?category=beyer

Quote: ahiromu

Lil, is there a reason for the other races running slower during Enticed's last race? It bugs me if they bump up the speed figures because something MUST have been different, and it sounds like there wasnt a valid reason.

Beyer's speed figures are probably a lot better than Brisnet's. The speed figure is largely based on the times of all the races on the same day comparing those times to the par times or average times of these races at whatever level the race is. i.e. a $29,000 claimer's time is compared to the par for all $29,000 claimers at that track. If all of the times for the day are very slow they ASSUME the reason is because the surface itself which is called the track variant is very slow that day. Unless they apply human judgement they don't consider that it's possible that 8 of 9 races that day were very slow just for random reasons. That is why IMHO speed figures are not tremendously reliable. A 104 speed figure for doing a mile in 138.24 is bordering on the ridiculous. I don't bet that many races. So when I see something that looks ridiculous like that I watch the video replay and see if I can see something unusual about the surface, the dirt itself. It's not scientific but it's the best I can do. And BTW watching video replays are again IMHO a great way to make judgments about a horse's trip. The tougher the trip, i.e. getting bumped or forced wide and then still doing very well gets a horse extra credit. The Derby winner Nyquist in winning the Juvenile at the Breeders Cup was bumped hard at the start and then bumped again a few strides later and then was forced wide into the stretch. He still won in a field of 14. I give him a lot of credit for that.

Enticed might win this race which will make my comment look pretty foolish.
But if he does win it also might be because the competition in the race is weak.

Quote: lilredrooster

Enticed might win this race which will make my comment look pretty foolish.
But if he does win it also might be because the competition in the race is weak.

Enticed was given a 95 Beyer in his last race (Gotham) and Justify received a 101. That sounds closer to reality. I watched Gotham... I'd argue Enticed got an ideal race and he might again. I'm staying away from that one.

SA finally drew their morning lines. Justify is 4-5, Bolt is 6-5, Instilled Regard is 5-1, and the rest are double digit longshots. Another hard race...

I like Justify a lot. A horse with very little experience showing a lot of promise.

I just wish he wasn't Baffert's horse. Baffert gets handed so many great horses.

in 2018 his horses have won 34 of 104 races or 32.7%

they've been in the money 66 times or 63.4%

that's crazy

Quote: lilredrooster

...<SNIP>...

I just wish he wasn't Baffert's horse. Baffert gets handed so many great horses.

in 2018 his horses have won 34 of 104 races or 32.7%

they've been in the money 66 times or 63.4%

that's crazy

So do I. A bit of that statistical picture has to do with the chronic short fields in California racing. But just a part.

What Baffert mostly gets the hand of is very cooperative "veterinarians" on his payroll in a jurisdiction that really doesn't want to know what "supplement" is being added to his magic oats during his unusual *ahem* "training" patterns. Since he's by far the most prominent and lucrative of the few major stables that didn't flee that state years ago.

Even so, he messed up his concoctions enough that he still managed to get publicly caught (for anyone who cares to actually pay any attention - meaning not the promotional racing press & fanboy cheerleaders) when it became impossible for even the State of California to ignore the NINE horses that dropped dead in his barn within a short time of one another at Hollywood Park. Nine rotting horse carcasses do tend to raise a bit of a public stink. One that forced necropsies to be done that found high levels of a medication that is only legitimately used for very rare thyroid conditions. And then further discovered that every single horse in his care had similarly high levels of that rare medical treatment... that also is known to be a way to mask and partially counteract some of the potentially lethal effects of the use of some very dangerous performance enhancing synthetic steroids.

Ooopsie! And then oopsies, I did it again! And then oopsie, oopsie, oopsie, oopsie, oopsie, oopsie, and oopsies! But it was publicly declared that the cause of the mass death was officially unknown, though the Univ. of Calif. Davis examiner said it was certain that something was very weird. And the closest thing to an "explanation" that was offered was that maybe it was an accident from rat poison that maybe somebody used around the stable areas. That somehow only affected Baffert's stock, and absolutely nobody else's on the backstretch. Not even the notorious "Drug O'Neil" who has such a remarkable habit of having every banned substance ever known to man & beast constantly sneaking into his stables and down the throats of his horses, completely unknown to him and to his shock & horror (again & again) so blatantly that even California felt compelled to suspend him. While delaying it just long enough tor him to win the Derby that year.

If you seriously want to bet clean racing, you don't bet those California trainers. If you have a race in which you can't bet against entries from those California "trainers" and you still don't care to handicap their sleazy & sometimes erratic doping, then you pass the race. Not very satisfying, but that's mostly how it is. If you particularly want opportunities to bet AGAINST California dope, so far this is still a limited sample size, but the recent major Breeders' Cup expansion of their own independent 'out-of-competition' testing requirement for a much longer pre-race period & any and all venues leading up to the Cup events seems to have had a noticeable effect, with some supposed California superhorses suddenly becoming not so super after getting entered in BC races.

Is that the reason why SA racing is so UNPREDICTABLE? Especially those cheap races

The favorites are extremely vulnerable in all 3 races. (I say that without knowing who the favorite will be at SA).

Enticed at 6-5 is a terrible bet. I'm going to try to beat him with King Zachary, Restoring Hope and Vino Rosso.

Good Magic will probably be bet down to 8-5. That's a terrible bet too. I'm going to try to beat him with Marconi, Kanthaka and Flameaway.

If Bolt D'Oro or Justify don't win, something crazy happened. ADWs are doing a money back special on the race. Bolt D'Oro is the money back special lock of the year. I'll do $20 WPS on him. But I'll single Justify in the pick-4.

Xpressbet - $20 back if horse finishes 2nd or 3rd at SA. $10 back at AQ and KEE. They also refund the takeout on the pick-4 at Santa Anita, the pick-3 at Aqueduct, and the trifecta in the Bluegrass.

Twinspires - $10 bonus if your horse wins in all 3 races. $5 if your horse places. $2 if your horse shows.

I'll be playing all of those promotions along with a contest of some sort on the big 3 tracks.

Should be a really fun day.

it looks like the racebooks have gotten cheaper with promotions

NBCSN is televising all 3 of the preps tomorrow

Wood Memorial
I like Enticed in here. I also think Vino Rosso deserves one more chance. The TBay Derby did not really have much pace for him to run at. I am a little skeptical of Restoring Hope. Moving up from a restricted MSW win to a grade 2 all the way across the country is a tall order.
Blue Grass Stakes
This one looks ripe for a longer odds horse to get the win. Horses are coming in from all over the country (which is typical for Keeneland). 4 runners have wins over the track (FDBilly, Flameaway, Quip, Tiz Mischief). If the Holy Bull was a "key" race (Enticed and Audible both had wins out of the race) then the exacta "should" be FDBilly and Tiz Mischief. Difficult race to handicap.
Santa Anita Derby
Looks like a match race on paper. Both runners would need something crazy happen not to finish 1-2. Both will then make the Derby. If Instilled Regard runs 3rd, he will also have the points to run for the roses. Hard to make a case against the top 2. Bolt is experienced but Justify has "freakish" potential.

Stop talking about Vino Rosso. :(

He got boxed in pretty badly and it was obvious he wanted to make a move, but couldn't. I haven't looked at the track bias info yet, but I'd imagine the outside for 1 1/8 at Aqueduct is disadvantageous, especially if you don't have blazing speed out of the gate. We'll see, maybe at 3-1.