ZenKinG
ZenKinG
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September 6th, 2017 at 2:53:54 PM permalink
So I've been a big bulls fan my whole life and when vegas finally released the odds for the over/under on all of the NBA teams last week, I couldn't help but be baffled by the line the bulls got. Vegas put the bulls as having the worst record in the league with the line at 21.5 wins. Actually I'm not a bit surprised because the media has made the bulls seem like they've lost everyone and that has painted a very poor sentiment about the team and we all know the lines are based off public sentiment to balance the books as much as possible contrary to what most gamblers believe. With that being said that sentiment has caused the line to have massive value in my opinion. Here is my reasons why.

Even with losing Butler and Rondo, we got some nice pieces that should fit well. Kris Dunn did not get any meaningful minutes in Minnesota and his value is flying way under the radar. I was high on him a couple of years ago at draft time and was hoping we could get him somehow. He gives us the PG we've been searching for since we lost Rose to injury and then traded him away. In my opinion this kid is going to be an all-star within 3 years. He reminds me a lot of Rose in his younger years, albeit a bit smaller, but the same explosiveness nonetheless. We also got Lavine, a young star, that also has value flying under the radar due to tearing his ACL last year. The thing is he's only 22 and an ACL injury at that age usually usually has a good rate of success to be what he once was. My only worry is what happened to Rose with the same injury and they both relied a lot on athleticism, but the thing with Rose seemed more mental than anything especially with the comments he made for years after his recovery, he just simply lost his love for the game. I think Lavine will recover nicely because he still has something to prove unlike Rose who was already a former MVP. We also got a 7 foot young star from Finland in the draft who can do it all, space the floor, post up, slash to the hoop, etc. who is killing it right now in the FIBA championships. His stroke from 3 is pure and reminds me a lot of Porzingis and a young Nowitizki. He is only 20 years old and my bet is he wins rookie of the year.

These 3 nice pieces along with the players from last years squad including Mirotic, who I believe will have a breakout year due to several factors. The first thing is no more Butler hogging the touches and going isolation every play and leaving Mirotic stranded in the corner and also the lack of pressure surrounding the team since we're expected to be a lottery team. I believe he will breakout and play a lot more comfortably and reach the expectation everyone thought of him coming out of Europe.

We also still got one of the most under rated centers in the game, Lopez, who will do what he always does, which is bring it every night. The big question will be if Dwyane Wade gets bought out or not. If he doesn't and stays, I dont see how we dont go 'over' on the over/under. My advice is to wait a couple of weeks before the season to see if Wade gets bought out and if he doesn't it's a major lock. I haven't bet sports in such a long time, but this is enticing me. I do question the legitimacy of the referees in the NBA though. One already was locked up for fixing games back in the early 2000s and claims others are still doing it and from what I've seen, I wouldn't be surprised. NBA refs have to be one of the worst refs in all of sports.

The over/under is at 21.5 wins and as I said before, I think this is a major value play. Losing Butler wasn't as bad as the media portrayed it out to be and Rondo well Rondo was there one year and really had an up and down season all year and then once he got hurt in the playoffs we cried wolf only because we really didnt have a decent backup PG more than anything. Butler was a ball dominant player and actually in my opinion hurt the team offensively moreso than he helped due to isolations after isiolations every time he got the ball. The offense clammed up and there was no ball movement. This year with no Butler, there will be a lot more ball movement with many talented young guys that will be there to prove themselves. I'm really liking the over on this 21.5 wins. Unless management secretly tanks the season to get Michael Porter Jr. this is a major lock to go over.

Lock of the century.
Last edited by: ZenKinG on Sep 6, 2017
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MaxPen
MaxPen
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Bozmonet0412
September 6th, 2017 at 3:30:53 PM permalink
Got it.....Bulls under 21.5




mcallister3200
mcallister3200
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September 6th, 2017 at 5:08:56 PM permalink
I'm a Minnesota guy. You lost me at Kris Dunn. There's a reason he was a throwaway in that trade and why he didn't get meaningful minutes in Minnesota (he was demoted to 3rd string) despite them envisioning him as the starting point guard and badly wanting him to replace Rubio. He cannot shoot.....at all....at all! Good defender, not nearly as explosive as Rose was have no idea where that comparison comes from. They may have given up too quickly on Dunn but he was given every chance to have minutes until mid season and just did not appear capable of contributing at all on the offensive end. Lavine is a good piece, how quickly he regains his athleticism is a concern for the first half of next year and therefore this years win total. While he had one of the quickest first steps in the league and can shoot, Lavine has been just an awful defender unwilling to guard anyone (should have the ability to). That win total is very low, but they have every appearance of being the worst team in the league.

Markannen and Mirotic have similar skill sets, Markannen is a bit more of a pure shooter and Mirotic is more adequate inside and rebounding but it's extremely unlikely for them to both do what you are saying they will at the same time, ones success will likely hamper the others. Likely the rookie is a bench player unless/until Mirotic is traded. Wade is frankly irrelevant to winning in todays NBA at this point in his career unless he is a bench player. He looks completely out of place in an NBA that demands more all around play and spacing (he has never been an adequate shooter or defender and the legs are gone.)

I'm not saying they can't win 22 games, that's a low number, but this team has all the appearances of the worst in the league and there is no path to 30 wins here, not a chance. It's probably about right. Even if your optimistic outlook on the new pieces is right in the end, the Minnesota pieces are unlikely to be a significant source of wins this year. It's a homer pick, not a lock.
billryan
billryan
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September 6th, 2017 at 5:13:54 PM permalink
I wouldn't call it the lock of the century, but I think this bet has some value. I've been debating it since the lines came out. I'm shocked the Warriors over is the previously long standing NBA record for wins. I think the Knicks over has value, as well.
It's what you do and not what you say If you're not part of the future then get out of the way
AxelWolf
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September 6th, 2017 at 5:50:16 PM permalink
Quote: ZenKinG

How would you feel if I told you them basketballs were partly made in China?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
ZenKinG
ZenKinG
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September 6th, 2017 at 8:00:36 PM permalink
Quote: mcallister3200

I'm a Minnesota guy. You lost me at Kris Dunn. There's a reason he was a throwaway in that trade and why he didn't get meaningful minutes in Minnesota (he was demoted to 3rd string) despite them envisioning him as the starting point guard and badly wanting him to replace Rubio. He cannot shoot.....at all....at all! Good defender, not nearly as explosive as Rose was have no idea where that comparison comes from. They may have given up too quickly on Dunn but he was given every chance to have minutes until mid season and just did not appear capable of contributing at all on the offensive end. Lavine is a good piece, how quickly he regains his athleticism is a concern for the first half of next year and therefore this years win total. While he had one of the quickest first steps in the league and can shoot, Lavine has been just an awful defender unwilling to guard anyone (should have the ability to). That win total is very low, but they have every appearance of being the worst team in the league.

Markannen and Mirotic have similar skill sets, Markannen is a bit more of a pure shooter and Mirotic is more adequate inside and rebounding but it's extremely unlikely for them to both do what you are saying they will at the same time, ones success will likely hamper the others. Likely the rookie is a bench player unless/until Mirotic is traded. Wade is frankly irrelevant to winning in todays NBA at this point in his career unless he is a bench player. He looks completely out of place in an NBA that demands more all around play and spacing (he has never been an adequate shooter or defender and the legs are gone.)

I'm not saying they can't win 22 games, that's a low number, but this team has all the appearances of the worst in the league and there is no path to 30 wins here, not a chance. It's probably about right. Even if your optimistic outlook on the new pieces is right in the end, the Minnesota pieces are unlikely to be a significant source of wins this year. It's a homer pick, not a lock.



I hear what youre saying about dunn, but you have to remember thibs never plays rookies. He didnt even play butler his rookie season at all and a few minutes here and there in his sophmore season. Thibs wanted someone like rubio as the starter regardless. Thats one of the beefs i had with thibs, he was stubborn and it was his way or nothing and he always overplayed his starters and people criticized him for overplaying rose especially the game where he tore his ACL having him play the last 3 minutes with a double digit lead vs the sixers. I think dunn will surprise people, rose couldnt shoot either coming into the league. Shots can be improved on and dunn now with a fresh start is gonna put the work in i believe.

I actually liked the trade, we were never going to win with butler as our best player and it was too much isolation on offense. Coach is to blame also, the guy is horrendous, the front office is terrible as well, i wish they would all get fired. I have no idea what they been doing for the past 3 years basically giving our whole team away for a bag of skittles, and hiring an iowa state college coach with no NBA experience(Tim floyd all over again bulls 2000) when guys like mark jackson were available.

It is what it is. Regarding markkanen and mirotic, with hoiberg as coach i think he will try to play them both at the same time since he loves having shooting on the floor and honestly id try that lineup in todays NBA where every player on the floor should be able to shoot from 3 and it could probably work well. I mean we're not going to shut anyone down anyway. If i was the coach id just run and gun all season long and get my 30 wins and call it a day, they have the personell to do that.

I stand by my prediction. If hoiberg isnt instructed to tank by management, this team should be capable of high 20s low 30s in my opinion.
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ZenKinG
ZenKinG
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September 6th, 2017 at 8:07:15 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

I wouldn't call it the lock of the century, but I think this bet has some value. I've been debating it since the lines came out. I'm shocked the Warriors over is the previously long standing NBA record for wins. I think the Knicks over has value, as well.



Youre right about the warriors, i was gonna mention it in my post but then id have to chamge the thread title to 'Lock(s) of the century' and wheres the fun in that lol. I just dont see the warriors having the same focus or enthusiam to dominate the regular season to get 70+, they simply just dont care after winning it all last year. They stopped caring as soon as they won 73 games and didnt win in the finals and realized regular season is irrelevant. I see a lot of resting starters for golden state and id defintely take the under on Golden State 67.5 No way Golden state gets 68 wins.
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ZenKinG
ZenKinG
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September 6th, 2017 at 8:08:50 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

How would you feel if I told you them basketballs were partly made in China?



Lol. Im never gonna live this down, am i?
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TomG
TomG
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September 6th, 2017 at 9:12:31 PM permalink
Lets consider both Lock and Century to be exaggerations and call it more along the lines of Best Bet and Summer. To be better than Mayweather at -450 would be full Kelly says to bet 30% of your bankroll on this. What fraction of that are you going to bet, ZK?
ZenKinG
ZenKinG
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September 6th, 2017 at 9:22:30 PM permalink
Quote: TomG

Lets consider both Lock and Century to be exaggerations and call it more along the lines of Best Bet and Summer. To be better than Mayweather at -450 would be full Kelly says to bet 30% of your bankroll on this. What fraction of that are you going to bet, ZK?



Well I was just having some fun with the title. Nothing is ever a 'lock' in a one time gambling event, even though this is technically not a 'one time' event since it's a season long prop. Unless you have some type of loss rebate for that exact bet, nothing is ever a 'lock', but with that being said im pretty confident about this. The golden state warriors pick going 'under' is also another good one. Regarding me betting on the bulls 'over', I dont like really like betting sports, so I might not even do it, i just dont trust the legitimacy of professional sports, especially the NBA. I've just seen so many obvious mistakes that you wonder if the refs are not bought from time to time or they got some type of money wagered on it indirectly from friends.

This thread was more to show the value of the play to everyone else who does indeed bet. We don't know what's going on behind the scenes though. Maybe vegas has inside info about bulls management wanting to tank the season and that's why the win total is so low? But if there's nothing shady going on with the league or the bulls front office, then i don't see how the bulls dont get at least 22 wins with this roster in a depleted eastern conference.

Regarding what size of the bankroll I'm betting, I would never bet anywhere near a decent part of my bankroll on sports unless you have some type of inside info. For a team with no real expectations and with the 'tanking' we have seen go on in the NBA with other teams to get a high draft pick, who knows what the motivation is going on behind closed doors. There's just too many shady things going on behind the scenes in sports in my opinion and I'm not just talking about someone deliberately throwing the game or the refs fixing it, but things like 'tanking' a season to get a draft pick etc.
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