Lock of the century w/ Analysis

So I've been a big bulls fan my whole life and when vegas finally released the odds for the over/under on all of the NBA teams last week, I couldn't help but be baffled by the line the bulls got. Vegas put the bulls as having the worst record in the league with the line at 21.5 wins. Actually I'm not a bit surprised because the media has made the bulls seem like they've lost everyone and that has painted a very poor sentiment about the team and we all know the lines are based off public sentiment to balance the books as much as possible contrary to what most gamblers believe. With that being said that sentiment has caused the line to have massive value in my opinion. Here is my reasons why.

Even with losing Butler and Rondo, we got some nice pieces that should fit well. Kris Dunn did not get any meaningful minutes in Minnesota and his value is flying way under the radar. I was high on him a couple of years ago at draft time and was hoping we could get him somehow. He gives us the PG we've been searching for since we lost Rose to injury and then traded him away. In my opinion this kid is going to be an all-star within 3 years. He reminds me a lot of Rose in his younger years, albeit a bit smaller, but the same explosiveness nonetheless. We also got Lavine, a young star, that also has value flying under the radar due to tearing his ACL last year. The thing is he's only 22 and an ACL injury at that age usually usually has a good rate of success to be what he once was. My only worry is what happened to Rose with the same injury and they both relied a lot on athleticism, but the thing with Rose seemed more mental than anything especially with the comments he made for years after his recovery, he just simply lost his love for the game. I think Lavine will recover nicely because he still has something to prove unlike Rose who was already a former MVP. We also got a 7 foot young star from Finland in the draft who can do it all, space the floor, post up, slash to the hoop, etc. who is killing it right now in the FIBA championships. His stroke from 3 is pure and reminds me a lot of Porzingis and a young Nowitizki. He is only 20 years old and my bet is he wins rookie of the year.

These 3 nice pieces along with the players from last years squad including Mirotic, who I believe will have a breakout year due to several factors. The first thing is no more Butler hogging the touches and going isolation every play and leaving Mirotic stranded in the corner and also the lack of pressure surrounding the team since we're expected to be a lottery team. I believe he will breakout and play a lot more comfortably and reach the expectation everyone thought of him coming out of Europe.

We also still got one of the most under rated centers in the game, Lopez, who will do what he always does, which is bring it every night. The big question will be if Dwyane Wade gets bought out or not. If he doesn't and stays, I dont see how we dont go 'over' on the over/under. My advice is to wait a couple of weeks before the season to see if Wade gets bought out and if he doesn't it's a major lock. I haven't bet sports in such a long time, but this is enticing me. I do question the legitimacy of the referees in the NBA though. One already was locked up for fixing games back in the early 2000s and claims others are still doing it and from what I've seen, I wouldn't be surprised. NBA refs have to be one of the worst refs in all of sports.

The over/under is at 21.5 wins and as I said before, I think this is a major value play. Losing Butler wasn't as bad as the media portrayed it out to be and Rondo well Rondo was there one year and really had an up and down season all year and then once he got hurt in the playoffs we cried wolf only because we really didnt have a decent backup PG more than anything. Butler was a ball dominant player and actually in my opinion hurt the team offensively moreso than he helped due to isolations after isiolations every time he got the ball. The offense clammed up and there was no ball movement. This year with no Butler, there will be a lot more ball movement with many talented young guys that will be there to prove themselves. I'm really liking the over on this 21.5 wins. Unless management secretly tanks the season to get Michael Porter Jr. this is a major lock to go over.

Lock of the century.

Got it.....Bulls under 21.5

I'm a Minnesota guy. You lost me at Kris Dunn. There's a reason he was a throwaway in that trade and why he didn't get meaningful minutes in Minnesota (he was demoted to 3rd string) despite them envisioning him as the starting point guard and badly wanting him to replace Rubio. He cannot shoot.....at all....at all! Good defender, not nearly as explosive as Rose was have no idea where that comparison comes from. They may have given up too quickly on Dunn but he was given every chance to have minutes until mid season and just did not appear capable of contributing at all on the offensive end. Lavine is a good piece, how quickly he regains his athleticism is a concern for the first half of next year and therefore this years win total. While he had one of the quickest first steps in the league and can shoot, Lavine has been just an awful defender unwilling to guard anyone (should have the ability to). That win total is very low, but they have every appearance of being the worst team in the league.

Markannen and Mirotic have similar skill sets, Markannen is a bit more of a pure shooter and Mirotic is more adequate inside and rebounding but it's extremely unlikely for them to both do what you are saying they will at the same time, ones success will likely hamper the others. Likely the rookie is a bench player unless/until Mirotic is traded. Wade is frankly irrelevant to winning in todays NBA at this point in his career unless he is a bench player. He looks completely out of place in an NBA that demands more all around play and spacing (he has never been an adequate shooter or defender and the legs are gone.)

I'm not saying they can't win 22 games, that's a low number, but this team has all the appearances of the worst in the league and there is no path to 30 wins here, not a chance. It's probably about right. Even if your optimistic outlook on the new pieces is right in the end, the Minnesota pieces are unlikely to be a significant source of wins this year. It's a homer pick, not a lock.

I wouldn't call it the lock of the century, but I think this bet has some value. I've been debating it since the lines came out. I'm shocked the Warriors over is the previously long standing NBA record for wins. I think the Knicks over has value, as well.

Quote: ZenKinG

How would you feel if I told you them basketballs were partly made in China?

Quote: mcallister3200

I'm a Minnesota guy. You lost me at Kris Dunn. There's a reason he was a throwaway in that trade and why he didn't get meaningful minutes in Minnesota (he was demoted to 3rd string) despite them envisioning him as the starting point guard and badly wanting him to replace Rubio. He cannot shoot.....at all....at all! Good defender, not nearly as explosive as Rose was have no idea where that comparison comes from. They may have given up too quickly on Dunn but he was given every chance to have minutes until mid season and just did not appear capable of contributing at all on the offensive end. Lavine is a good piece, how quickly he regains his athleticism is a concern for the first half of next year and therefore this years win total. While he had one of the quickest first steps in the league and can shoot, Lavine has been just an awful defender unwilling to guard anyone (should have the ability to). That win total is very low, but they have every appearance of being the worst team in the league.

Markannen and Mirotic have similar skill sets, Markannen is a bit more of a pure shooter and Mirotic is more adequate inside and rebounding but it's extremely unlikely for them to both do what you are saying they will at the same time, ones success will likely hamper the others. Likely the rookie is a bench player unless/until Mirotic is traded. Wade is frankly irrelevant to winning in todays NBA at this point in his career unless he is a bench player. He looks completely out of place in an NBA that demands more all around play and spacing (he has never been an adequate shooter or defender and the legs are gone.)

I'm not saying they can't win 22 games, that's a low number, but this team has all the appearances of the worst in the league and there is no path to 30 wins here, not a chance. It's probably about right. Even if your optimistic outlook on the new pieces is right in the end, the Minnesota pieces are unlikely to be a significant source of wins this year. It's a homer pick, not a lock.

I hear what youre saying about dunn, but you have to remember thibs never plays rookies. He didnt even play butler his rookie season at all and a few minutes here and there in his sophmore season. Thibs wanted someone like rubio as the starter regardless. Thats one of the beefs i had with thibs, he was stubborn and it was his way or nothing and he always overplayed his starters and people criticized him for overplaying rose especially the game where he tore his ACL having him play the last 3 minutes with a double digit lead vs the sixers. I think dunn will surprise people, rose couldnt shoot either coming into the league. Shots can be improved on and dunn now with a fresh start is gonna put the work in i believe.

I actually liked the trade, we were never going to win with butler as our best player and it was too much isolation on offense. Coach is to blame also, the guy is horrendous, the front office is terrible as well, i wish they would all get fired. I have no idea what they been doing for the past 3 years basically giving our whole team away for a bag of skittles, and hiring an iowa state college coach with no NBA experience(Tim floyd all over again bulls 2000) when guys like mark jackson were available.

It is what it is. Regarding markkanen and mirotic, with hoiberg as coach i think he will try to play them both at the same time since he loves having shooting on the floor and honestly id try that lineup in todays NBA where every player on the floor should be able to shoot from 3 and it could probably work well. I mean we're not going to shut anyone down anyway. If i was the coach id just run and gun all season long and get my 30 wins and call it a day, they have the personell to do that.

I stand by my prediction. If hoiberg isnt instructed to tank by management, this team should be capable of high 20s low 30s in my opinion.

Quote: billryan

I wouldn't call it the lock of the century, but I think this bet has some value. I've been debating it since the lines came out. I'm shocked the Warriors over is the previously long standing NBA record for wins. I think the Knicks over has value, as well.

Youre right about the warriors, i was gonna mention it in my post but then id have to chamge the thread title to 'Lock(s) of the century' and wheres the fun in that lol. I just dont see the warriors having the same focus or enthusiam to dominate the regular season to get 70+, they simply just dont care after winning it all last year. They stopped caring as soon as they won 73 games and didnt win in the finals and realized regular season is irrelevant. I see a lot of resting starters for golden state and id defintely take the under on Golden State 67.5 No way Golden state gets 68 wins.

Quote: AxelWolf

How would you feel if I told you them basketballs were partly made in China?

Lol. Im never gonna live this down, am i?

Lets consider both Lock and Century to be exaggerations and call it more along the lines of Best Bet and Summer. To be better than Mayweather at -450 would be full Kelly says to bet 30% of your bankroll on this. What fraction of that are you going to bet, ZK?

Quote: TomG

Lets consider both Lock and Century to be exaggerations and call it more along the lines of Best Bet and Summer. To be better than Mayweather at -450 would be full Kelly says to bet 30% of your bankroll on this. What fraction of that are you going to bet, ZK?

Well I was just having some fun with the title. Nothing is ever a 'lock' in a one time gambling event, even though this is technically not a 'one time' event since it's a season long prop. Unless you have some type of loss rebate for that exact bet, nothing is ever a 'lock', but with that being said im pretty confident about this. The golden state warriors pick going 'under' is also another good one. Regarding me betting on the bulls 'over', I dont like really like betting sports, so I might not even do it, i just dont trust the legitimacy of professional sports, especially the NBA. I've just seen so many obvious mistakes that you wonder if the refs are not bought from time to time or they got some type of money wagered on it indirectly from friends.

This thread was more to show the value of the play to everyone else who does indeed bet. We don't know what's going on behind the scenes though. Maybe vegas has inside info about bulls management wanting to tank the season and that's why the win total is so low? But if there's nothing shady going on with the league or the bulls front office, then i don't see how the bulls dont get at least 22 wins with this roster in a depleted eastern conference.

Regarding what size of the bankroll I'm betting, I would never bet anywhere near a decent part of my bankroll on sports unless you have some type of inside info. For a team with no real expectations and with the 'tanking' we have seen go on in the NBA with other teams to get a high draft pick, who knows what the motivation is going on behind closed doors. There's just too many shady things going on behind the scenes in sports in my opinion and I'm not just talking about someone deliberately throwing the game or the refs fixing it, but things like 'tanking' a season to get a draft pick etc.

Quote: ZenKinG

For a team with no real expectations and with the 'tanking' we have seen go on in the NBA with other teams to get a high draft pick, who knows what the motivation is going on behind closed doors. There's just too many shady things going on behind the scenes in sports in my opinion and I'm not just talking about someone deliberately throwing the game or the refs fixing it, but things like 'tanking' a season to get a draft pick etc.

A team losing games now to try and be better in the future is as out in the open as any other strategic decision teams make. It's no more behind closed doors as whether a football team wants to favor the run or the pass more in their upcoming game. It's also the main reason why the number is so low and why the under is close to a 50% chance

Quote: TomG

A team losing games now to try and be better in the future is as out in the open as any other strategic decision teams make. It's no more behind closed doors as whether a football team wants to favor the run or the pass more in their upcoming game. It's also the main reason why the number is so low and why the under is close to a 50% chance

In the NBA it's different. The commissioner is trying to crack down on teams losing purposely to get a high draft pick. This is just going to cause more 'secrecy' behind closed doors so they dont get major fines or whatever the new penalty is. The commissioner is just going to have to change the whole draft format to fix this issue. It should be changed anyway, you shouldn't be awarding mediocrity. If a team doesn't want to suck anymore, they need to go and find raw talent whether it's domestic or overseas because there's always talent out there. They need to scout and recruit, make smart trades, etc.

Quote: ZenKinG

This is just going to cause more 'secrecy' behind closed doors so they dont get major fines or whatever the new penalty is.

How is an NBA team going to manage to keep its won-loss record a secret?

Low season win totals is entirely because previous NBA teams having low win totals at the end of the season. No matter what goes on behind closed doors, no team can hide how many games they've won. And because there are teams that win fewer than 20 games every year, the worst teams will have their odds around that number. There is no secrecy involved in setting that number.

Quote: ZenKinG

Lol. Im never gonna live this down, am i?

In time this too shall pass. Ya, probably not.... but it's a good sign you can laugh about it, sounds like progress to me. From what I can see, anything you contribute here(right or wrong) will be picked apart and criticized since you have painted a target the size of Alaska and as bright as Las Vegas on your back. Your failed predictions will be brought up, magnified and tossed in your face, your correct predictions will be called out as lucky guesses.

Assuming you keep the conspiracy crap to yourself and the the emotional rants in check( good luck with that) I think all will be well.

To speed up the process, you need a whipping boy like b79 or Vermenti to come along and take your place. Simply jump on the "cool kids" team and help bash away.

Quote: TomG

How is an NBA team going to manage to keep its won-loss record a secret?

Low season win totals is entirely because previous NBA teams having low win totals at the end of the season. No matter what goes on behind closed doors, no team can hide how many games they've won. And because there are teams that win fewer than 20 games every year, the worst teams will have their odds around that number. There is no secrecy involved in setting that number.

Youre not understanding what im saying. Im saying that the team will subtly bench players or rest players throughout the season and basically 'tank' the season to get a worse record than they otherwise would have to get a high draft pick. Im not talking about masquerading their record. That doesnt even make sense, i dont even know what youre on about lol.

I'm not a big basketball guy, so this is no where near any of my expertise... but just from reading your OP it sounds like you're emotionally invested in the team and that's clouding your judgement on the bet. Even if it is a bet with some value to it, it's probably NO WHERE NEAR the "lock of the century" of any bet I've ever placed on sports... Let alone we already had the lock of the century... Mayweather/McGreggor. That was the easiest sports money I'll ever make in my entire life.

Until the rematch, when Conor's fans Will be convinced he has the boxing thing down.

Ok. Put it this way, I might not like ZK but I like his pick. I will take 21.5 Bulls OVER. from US$50-100. I will put up the money with Soopoo since he is close by me. Betting window is open. until 19 of September.

Kind of funny the two that are being talked about in this thread are the only 2 I bet last season! I had Bulls over 39.5 and Warriors under 67.5 and won both on the 81st game of the season.

Interesting side note is I was in attendance when the Bulls beat the Warriors in Chicago!


RD

Quote: ZenKinG

Youre not understanding what im saying. Im saying that the team will subtly bench players or rest players throughout the season and basically 'tank' the season to get a worse record than they otherwise would have to get a high draft pick.

The possibility of that is well known to anyone who would consider making this bet. Both the over bettors and under bettors have the same information. Calling such a practice "secret" is nonsense.

Sometimes if it seems too good to be true, you're bipolar.

ZK has already said that the title is tongue in cheek. I might bet $20 with him or something just for fun.

I don't put much stock in handicapping of this sort, from most people. But it doesn't hurt to keep it filed away when line shopping. Maybe you can find this play with effectively no juice, or just slightly +ev.

The NBA should follow the model used by most fantasy sports leagues, where the bottom level teams are rewarded for winning. Like, the 4th worst team gets the most ping pong balls, the 3rd worst gets the second most, etc. The stretch run would be exciting for fans of those teams, especially when there is a can't miss star to be had with the first pick, like James or Greg Odin. It would be a lot like the relegation battle in soccer.

Greg Oden huh? Lol thanks for the chuckle.

NBA season starts tonight.

CHI's season starts on Thursday. Looks like the number has moved a bit ~22.5 over/under. CHI went 3-3 in preseason.

Very easy fade here. A rebuilding team, who has their draft pick (reason to not win) and the current worst roster in the NBA.

Under for 1 unit.

0-1 (81 more games left)

IMO (one game in), defense is going to be a problem. Offense showed some potential.

I had the over 26 with the Nets. Was hoping Jeremy Lin would be able to play at least 50 games. He didn't last 50 minutes, as is out for the season. Frkn dreadlocks.

The first game for the bulls was irrelevamt due to so many of our main players out. Dunn is out, Lavine is out, Mirotic is out due to the fight with portis, and portis is suspended 8 games. Its interesting how the buyout of wade didnt lower our wins but has in fact raised it up 1 win.

I still think we should be able to get over the current 22 wins if we get everyone back and healthy, but it might be closer than i originally thought due to all that has happened since my original post such as the injuries, suspensions, wade buyout etc. The fight with portis and mirotic could hurt chemistry and one of them might be traded. I just dont see how both of them will coexist after that brawl leaving mirotic in the hospital so management might get rid of one or both and who knows who we w ill get. I also thought lavine would be ready by the beginning of the season and it looks like he will only come back in december and the bulls seem to be letting him take his time probably because they want to tank and that alone makes me fearful to touch the over on the bulls. You just never know what a depleted talented roster has in mind, but luckily after this year, teams wont be able to tank due to the new system in place though, so that is good.

I think the under Golden state is a much better pick, idk what its currently at but if its still at 67 or 68 thats an easy under even before their opening loss.

Quote: ZenKinG

I still think we should be able to get over the current 22 wins if we get everyone back and healthy, but it might be closer than i originally thought.

I think the under Golden state is a much better pick, idk what its currently at but if its still at 67 or 68 thats an easy under even before their opening loss.

The "LOCK OF THE CENTURY" is no more?!?

Quote: SM777

The "LOCK OF THE CENTURY" is no more?!?

I wasnt anticipating teammates putting each other in the hospital and lavine not being ready by the first game of the season as well as dunn being hurt. Dunn should be back saturday though, but still the other 3 missing players are 3 of their better players. Also when I first wrote the post, I said the big question was regarding if Wade gets bought out or not and if he didn't I dont know how we wouldn't go over. He did get bought out and now it's all young guns. It's not the lock of the century anymore, but still a decent bet to go over I think.

As a depressed bulls fan at least I can smile knowing we got the next Dirk Nowitzki in Markannen, you heard it here first!

Do you have any more locks?

How about some picks?

PS...you forgot to let us know to go back on the bitcoin train.😆

Quote: MaxPen

Do you have any more locks?

How about some picks?

PS...you forgot to let us know to go back on the bitcoin train.😆

Let's be fair now. He did say buy bitcoin at 1800 or so and its at 6000 today but he was too scared to buy it and didn't push to find a way. I almost jumped on the train at 2k but I'm lazy. My real problem is I don't know how to get around paying taxes on stocks and legal investments so I miss out on a lot of free money.

I know nothing about bitcoins, and that is more than I wan to know. So my question is are these traceable and need to be reported to the IRS or is it simply reported on the honor system?

0-2 (80 more games left)

Forget the "analysis" of the Bulls preseason, things are simple to explain right now. They lost to an above average TOR on the road and an above average SAS at home. If one included either game as a possible win...

3-11 after 14 games , on pace for about 17 wins

Bulls will need to pick up the pace a little in order for the lock of the year to cash

Quote: michael99000

3-11 after 14 games , on pace for about 17 wins

Bulls will need to pick up the pace a little in order for the lock of the year to cash

It’s ok because like all of ZK’s genius thoughts to make money he never actually puts any money on it. His “locks” are worth about as much as the feces that monkeys throw.

Quote: PokerGrinder

It’s ok because like all of ZK’s genius thoughts to make money he never actually puts any money on it. His “locks” are worth about as much as the feces that monkeys throw.

Yeah, but watching monkeys throw feces is just a bit funnier.

Quote: michael99000

3-11 after 14 games , on pace for about 17 wins

Bulls will need to pick up the pace a little in order for the lock of the year to cash

That can be a bit misleading, as strength of schedule comes into it. ZK and any who made the bet are counting on the Bulls to feast on the other bottom feeders.

You guys also fail to realize that i didnt expect portis and mirotic two of our better players to get into a brawl a week before the season putting mirotic out indefinitely and in the hospital and portis suspended for the first 8 games. Also dunn missed the first 8 games or so as well. My OP also was assuming Wade stayed and didnt get bought out.

Even with all of this happening, like bill ryan alluded to, weve had a pretty tough schedule in the beginning and actually might be a time to double down if win total dropped and it still lets you bet.

The reason I didnt bet is because no one really knows the true intentions behind the scenes of wanting to tank the season or not. Lavine might not be allowed to retyrn this year when he is supposed to return in december. Also this coach might be instructed to play garbage players to get a loss and ive already seen questionable starting lineups and subs and the wrong players finishing games. If theres no comspiracy to tank, i think this is a good bet still to go over.

Always expect the unexpected. Players on losing teams tend to get injured and stay injured longer.
I made my bet on the Nets hoping Lin would play 50 or more games. He was lost for the season after less than fifty minutes.

literallyeverythingsaconspiracy.com

Quote: ZenKinG

The reason I didnt bet is because no one really knows the true intentions behind the scenes of wanting to tank the season or not. Lavine might not be allowed to retyrn this year when he is supposed to return in december. Also this coach might be instructed to play garbage players to get a loss and ive already seen questionable starting lineups and subs and the wrong players finishing games. If theres no comspiracy to tank, i think this is a good bet still to go over.

If that is the case why did you declare it a lock of the year?

Check my, “Fade of the Week,” in the Picks Game thread!

Maybe just beware anything that has, “Of the,” in it!

Quote: mcallister3200

literallyeverythingsaconspiracy.com

Should we all pitch in and buy this domain name for ZK for Christmas?

Quote: billryan

That can be a bit misleading, as strength of schedule comes into it. ZK and any who made the bet are counting on the Bulls to feast on the other bottom feeders.

8 of the 14 games the bulls have played so far have been against teams that currently are at .500 or worse.


And they’ve already lost to the Heat, pacers , and suns , three teams expected to be in next years draft lottery

And they have not yet played a single game vs Boston, Detroit , Houston or Golden State, the top two teams in each conference.

So I’ll have to disagree with your strength of schedule argument

Quote: PokerGrinder

Should we all pitch in and buy this domain name for ZK for Christmas?

OMG "they" took it down already 😲?You can't even talk about a conspiracy anymore.

Don’t look now but the Bulls have won 6 in a row after beating the Sixers last night.

pretty amazing - the suns won their game tuesday night by exploiting a little know rule re goaltending. Tyson Chandler "goaltended"; but it wasn't actually goaltending because it was an inbound pass from out of bounds that cannot be considered a shot. so the referees conferred and correctly ruled that it was not goaltending and the "goaltend" counted and the suns won the game. I've never heard of anything like this happening before.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/27/sports/basketball/phoenix-suns-chandler-rule.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fsports&action=click&contentCollection=sports&region=rank&module=package&version=highlights&contentPlacement=1&pgtype=sectionfront

Bulls at 12 wins. The over is the favorite. The Bulls are 11-10 against the East, 1-12 against the West.

Half way through the schedule Bulls at 14 wins and Zach Lavine plays Saturday for the first time all season. Bulls looking to trade Mirotic.