coilman
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onenickelmiracle
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May 16th, 2014 at 2:53:07 PM permalink
I'm just rolling dice assuming California Chrome will win. Bad bet, but research I did would just be as worthless and if I got lucky, it would cause me to become addicted.

Edit 5 hours later: The extreme irrationality and negative expectation of Cc has sunk in so might think twice. We'll see. Still thinking 3XX or 3XXX but because I can't ever see the difference of horses any more than red and black.
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ontariodealer
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May 16th, 2014 at 8:14:18 PM permalink
a website similar to this one that contains some professional players is paceadvantage.com
get second you pig
Buzzard
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May 16th, 2014 at 8:41:51 PM permalink
If forced to take a flyer, I would bey Bayern to win. Ran a mile in 1:35 at Santa Anita. You can bet the crew will harrow the track to make it super fast. Only way anybody figures to beat CC tomorrow, is if a horse gets loose on the front end, and track bias carries him to the wire.
Notice I said if forced to. Don't see any real value in the race.
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
onenickelmiracle
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May 16th, 2014 at 9:33:35 PM permalink
How do you know odds on exacta trifectas super etc? Just wondering for links I can't find them.
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sodawater
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May 16th, 2014 at 9:51:14 PM permalink
Quote: onenickelmiracle

How do you know odds on exacta trifectas super etc? Just wondering for links I can't find them.



if you're betting with the track or any simulcast facility, odds are parimutual and won't be finalized till the race is over. You can generally estimate exotics odds based on the handicapper's morning line, but you won't be able to see the final payouts until the race ends.
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
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May 16th, 2014 at 10:10:30 PM permalink
Quote: sodawater

if you're betting with the track or any simulcast facility, odds are parimutual and won't be finalized till the race is over. You can generally estimate exotics odds based on the handicapper's morning line, but you won't be able to see the final payouts until the race ends.

Are they just based on single track bets or all of them together?
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ontariodealer
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May 16th, 2014 at 10:50:30 PM permalink
after my final analysis i will use only 3 and 8 in the top two and will key with 7 and 10 in the bottom.....important to use both 3 and 8 first and second and reverse them as i think that social inclusion could go wire to wire and CC would be second.
get second you pig
sodawater
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May 17th, 2014 at 12:55:35 AM permalink
Quote: onenickelmiracle

Are they just based on single track bets or all of them together?



they're all linked together
onenickelmiracle
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May 17th, 2014 at 1:21:17 AM permalink
3&8 sounds good top 3. I'm going to box them with 5,9, no rational reason why.

398
398 with 5
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speedycrap
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May 17th, 2014 at 5:50:21 AM permalink
I DON'T think 8 will hit the board at all. No class and has to go for the lead. Will last at most at the top of the stretch.
speedycrap
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May 17th, 2014 at 5:53:23 AM permalink
I will do 3-X-10 or 3-10-X for tri.
speedycrap
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May 17th, 2014 at 7:01:04 AM permalink
Tri:3-10-7,2. Ex:3-10,2
Buzzard
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May 17th, 2014 at 8:12:29 AM permalink
I will probably take a 7/4 $10 Exacta. First chance to bet my new age. And my IQ all at once.
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
Sabretom2
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May 17th, 2014 at 9:07:06 AM permalink
Best bet might be 5 to show. Other than that, you've got a $5 exacta.
kenarman
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May 17th, 2014 at 9:49:56 AM permalink
Quote: Buzzard

I will probably take a 7/4 $10 Exacta. First chance to bet my new age. And my IQ all at once.



I love it Buzz
Be careful when you follow the masses, the M is sometimes silent.
treetopbuddy
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May 17th, 2014 at 9:52:02 AM permalink
What a hodge-podge of three year olds. Has to be the weakest field in memory.

Chrome's gate issues haven't just gone away. He misses break and runs off board.
Each day is better than the next
Sabretom2
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May 17th, 2014 at 2:45:36 PM permalink
30 min to post.

$100 across the board on the 3.

$50 show on the 5.
PBguy
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May 17th, 2014 at 3:24:39 PM permalink
Looked like that was about a perfect ride on CC.

On to the Triple Crown!
Tomspur
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May 17th, 2014 at 3:38:40 PM permalink
Quote: PBguy

Looked like that was about a perfect ride on CC.

On to the Triple Crown!



I don't agree trip wise. He sat beautifully but I think Espinoza moved sooner than what he would have liked imo. Still, a great win.

He will surely be hot favorite for Belmont and who would begrudge him a win there right?

I will try and beat him there but not because I don't believe in the fairy tale just because I don't think he will be value and there are a many great different things against his bid there.

There will be huge opportunities but I will be ecstatic if he wins!

$6.1 mil for 51%, yeah right :)
“There is something about the outside of a horse that is good for the inside of a man.” - Winston Churchill
ThatDonGuy
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May 17th, 2014 at 3:38:51 PM permalink
Quote: PBguy

On to the Triple Crown!


I wonder if anybody is going to buy hordes of $2 tickets on CC to win just to sell as souvenirs in case he does win. That will certainly drive up the prices on the rest of the field.

Personally, I didn't see anything in his Preakness run that makes me wants to change my thought after his Derby run - I don't think he has the mile and a half in him he needs to beat the distance specialists.

(And NBC's announcer just said that the DAP colors will be on the Pimlico weathervane "for the next year"; I for one would like to see a guarantee that Pimlico is still going to be there next May.)
HowMany
HowMany
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May 17th, 2014 at 3:42:25 PM permalink
CC doesn't have the feel of a Triple Crown winner.

Very good horse, but not great. He loses in 3 weeks.
Sabretom2
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May 17th, 2014 at 3:43:01 PM permalink
Very nice ride. It won't quiet the distracters. Guess we'll have to keep taking their money.
Tomspur
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May 17th, 2014 at 3:43:42 PM permalink
Quote: HowMany

CC doesn't have the feel of a Triple Crown winner.

Very good horse, but not great. He loses in 3 weeks.



I was wondering, what does a TC winner feel like? Soft and squishy? :)
“There is something about the outside of a horse that is good for the inside of a man.” - Winston Churchill
HowMany
HowMany
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May 17th, 2014 at 3:45:09 PM permalink
Quote: Tomspur

I was wondering, what does a TC winner feel like? Soft and squishy? :)



Big Brown "felt" like a TC winner. And that didn't work out.
speedycrap
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May 17th, 2014 at 3:51:29 PM permalink
Quote: speedycrap

Tri:3-10-7,2. Ex:3-10,2

I bet $75 WP on CC. $20 Ex 3-10. $2 Ex 3-2,7,10. $5 Tri 3-10-2. $1 Tri 3-10-2,7,8. $1 Tri 3-10,2-2,7,8,10. I got a few bucks on CC to place. Total bet $220. Total return $566.85. Great profit and VALUE in 2 minutes. If 2 got the show finish, I would have made an extra $2-300 on the tri. Now waiting for the Belmont.
8 horse was good but not Derby type. Maiden winner moving up against Gr 1 winner was just way, way over his head. If not for 8 horse, CC would be 1-5.
Beardgoat
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May 17th, 2014 at 4:04:28 PM permalink
I did a $10 exacta 3 with 1,5,8,10 and $3 trifecta 3 with 1,5, 8,10 with 1,5,8,10. I think I made about $120... Not a lot of money to be won with such a heavy favorite
HowMany
HowMany
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May 17th, 2014 at 4:13:43 PM permalink
I didn't bet the race, but a bunch of my friends did. I booked all their action.

I got killed. Lost about $2k.
speedycrap
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May 17th, 2014 at 4:39:21 PM permalink
Looking forward to Belmont. I think CC is a good place/show bet.
treetopbuddy
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May 17th, 2014 at 5:20:16 PM permalink
Quote: Tomspur

I don't agree trip wise. He sat beautifully but I think Espinoza moved sooner than what he would have liked imo. Still, a great win.

He will surely be hot favorite for Belmont and who would begrudge him a win there right?

I will try and beat him there but not because I don't believe in the fairy tale just because I don't think he will be value and there are a many great different things against his bid there.

There will be huge opportunities but I will be ecstatic if he wins!

$6.1 mil for 51%, yeah right :)



Espinoza had to move early as not to give his position away to the 8 that moved early. Never give position away that late in race. Jock gave Chrome a perfect ride.

6.1 million for 51% was very fair offer. I'm not going to waste energy trying to explain why......it doesn't matter.
Each day is better than the next
speedycrap
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May 17th, 2014 at 5:23:01 PM permalink
Quote: treetopbuddy

Espinoza had to move early as not to give his position away to the 8 that moved early. Never give position away that late in race. Jock gave Chrome a perfect ride.

6.1 million for 51% was very fair offer. I'm not going to waste energy trying to explain why......it doesn't matter.

So how much is CC worth NOW. And also after Belmont? Winning? Losing????
FinsRule
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May 17th, 2014 at 9:41:08 PM permalink
I hit the $2 Tri on a $24 bet for $76.

Was down overall because I missed 3rd leg of pick-4.

I don't see CC winning the Belmont. Actually I could see him off the board. Hope I'm wrong.

(I have a $2 derby win bet and Preakness. I'll get Belmont in 3 weeks)
aceofspades
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May 17th, 2014 at 9:46:19 PM permalink
If CC wins the Belmont and thusly, the Triple Crown, is he retired or does he race in the Breeder's Cup classic?

I, for one, do not see him getting the distance in the Belmont.
JW17
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May 17th, 2014 at 9:48:50 PM permalink
Quote: speedycrap

I DON'T think 8 will hit the board at all. No class and has to go for the lead. Will last at most at the top of the stretch.



whoops
Beardgoat
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May 17th, 2014 at 11:32:04 PM permalink
California chrome's preakness time was actually pretty fast. I think he has a really good shot
speedycrap
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May 18th, 2014 at 4:50:47 AM permalink
Quote: JW17

whoops

Almost got it right.
Sabretom2
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May 18th, 2014 at 7:33:51 AM permalink
CC uses a nasal strip that is not permitted in New York. I have no idea how to deal with this variable.
treetopbuddy
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May 18th, 2014 at 8:40:29 AM permalink
Quote: speedycrap

So how much is CC worth NOW. And also after Belmont? Winning? Losing????



Chrome's value really didn't change after the Preakness win. His value would not significantly change if he were to win the Belmont. He has proven that he is a fast horse and the best of the three year old crop thus far. He could go on and win several more million racing but when he steps up into open company it's a different ball game. Beating older horses is no easy feat.

Chrome's pedigree could easily have him running in the worst races in the country instead of the best. His value at this point is pinned to his pedigree which is modest at best. Few three year old classic winners have gone on to be great producers. Breeders will give him a try but not to their best mares. Top breeders will breed to horses like Will Take Charge.....a top class horse with classic pedigree who was still maturing as he went through the triple crown series. Will Take Charge's value is probably doubled that of Chrome's.

I'dI love to see Chrome win the Belmont. The owners are lucky buffoons. They are the Inspector Clouseau's of horse racing.
Each day is better than the next
speedycrap
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May 18th, 2014 at 11:00:27 AM permalink
Quote: treetopbuddy

Chrome's value really didn't change after the Preakness win. His value would not significantly change if he were to win the Belmont. He has proven that he is a fast horse and the best of the three year old crop thus far. He could go on and win several more million racing but when he steps up into open company it's a different ball game. Beating older horses is no easy feat.

Chrome's pedigree could easily have him running in the worst races in the country instead of the best. His value at this point is pinned to his pedigree which is modest at best. Few three year old classic winners have gone on to be great producers. Breeders will give him a try but not to their best mares. Top breeders will breed to horses like Will Take Charge.....a top class horse with classic pedigree who was still maturing as he went through the triple crown series. Will Take Charge's value is probably doubled that of Chrome's.

I'dI love to see Chrome win the Belmont. The owners are lucky buffoons. They are the Inspector Clouseau's of horse racing.


Just curious for the $ figure
PBguy
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May 18th, 2014 at 1:02:08 PM permalink
It'll be interesting to see how this issue with the nasal strip works out and if CC runs in the Belmont. I can't imagine having a good horse with a real chance to win the Triple Crown and not running him.

I think he has a decent shot at winning the Belmont based on his performances over the last 5 races. The question, of course, is whether he can really handle the distance.
sodawater
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May 18th, 2014 at 1:10:48 PM permalink
The nasal strip thing is simply a game of chicken.

Having CC run the Belmont is too valuable for NYRA to let him sit out over a minor issue.

Running for the Triple Crown is too valuable for CC's owners to let him sit out over a minor issue.

This will not be an issue for CC to run in the Belmont. Right now they're just "negotiating in public" over this silly issue.
Buzzard
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May 18th, 2014 at 1:19:25 PM permalink
Never a bad idea to build that excuse, you know, just in case !
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
aceofspades
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May 18th, 2014 at 1:21:04 PM permalink
Quote: Buzzard

Never a bad idea to build that excuse, you know, just in case !




Exactly - a built-in excuse when CC does not get the distance. I'm rooting for NYRA on this one. What if the next TC contender uses a drug banned in NY - do they get an exception too?
Buzzard
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May 18th, 2014 at 1:27:26 PM permalink
General A rod was sold before the derby. His jockey rode the 2nd place longshot in Belmont 2011.

More details later. I rarely tout but General a Rod should be an overlay in the Belmont.
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
onenickelmiracle
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May 18th, 2014 at 1:28:04 PM permalink
I think the horse is related to Mr. Ed and fixing the races. Swear I saw him talking to someone after the race:)
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Buzzard
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May 18th, 2014 at 1:36:17 PM permalink
Sure you were not watching a rerun of let it ride ?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W0tqMg6Bwt8
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
coilman
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May 18th, 2014 at 1:38:18 PM permalink
Quote: aceofspades

Exactly - a built-in excuse when CC does not get the distance. I'm rooting for NYRA on this one. What if the next TC contender uses a drug banned in NY - do they get an exception too?



The trainers are WAYYYYYYYY ahead of the testers in horse racing .... if you think any of these animals are running on hay and oats you must had bumped your head a few too many times over the years
aceofspades
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May 18th, 2014 at 1:41:26 PM permalink
Quote: coilman

The trainers are WAYYYYYYYY ahead of the testers in horse racing .... if you think any of these animals are running on hay and oats you must had bumped your head a few too many times over the years





Yeah - I "must had"
Buzzard
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May 18th, 2014 at 1:43:25 PM permalink
And yet sometimes track management over reacts. A trainer just trying to give his horses a few moments of pleasure and gets suspended. What an injustice !

http://www.upi.com/Sports_News/2014/02/14/Top-quarter-horse-trainer-suspended-for-16-years/UPI-37181392438643/
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
HowMany
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May 18th, 2014 at 2:21:21 PM permalink
Quote: treetopbuddy

The owners are lucky buffoons. They are the Inspector Clouseau's of horse racing.



Treetop is right, but I would call them LUCKY idiots, not buffoons.
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