speedycrap
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May 4th, 2014 at 4:40:29 PM permalink
Buzzard said Derby was over, so I started a new one :))))))))))))))).
CC all the way??
FinsRule
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May 4th, 2014 at 5:10:52 PM permalink
The Belmont is the hardest leg for CC to win even though he might be the shortest price in that one.

Trainers will enter speed horses to help out the closers. He can win, but that mile and a half is tough.
aceofspades
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May 4th, 2014 at 5:15:37 PM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

The Belmont is the hardest leg for CC to win even though he might be the shortest price in that one.

Trainers will enter speed horses to help out the closers. He can win, but that mile and a half is tough.





CC looked like he was going to get caught if the race was an extra furlong BUT, that being said - jock may ride him differently to conserve energy in the Belmont (should he win the Preakness and go for the Triple Crown)
sodawater
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May 4th, 2014 at 6:50:46 PM permalink
Quote: aceofspades

CC looked like he was going to get caught if the race was an extra furlong BUT, that being said - jock may ride him differently to conserve energy in the Belmont (should he win the Preakness and go for the Triple Crown)



Ace -- watch that race again. CC wasn't even running the final sixteenth. The race was already over. He was basically galloping out. In other words, he still had plenty of run left after 1 mile and 1/16th. If the Derby had been 11 furlongs instead of 10, my guess is CC would have won by a lot more.
kenarman
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May 4th, 2014 at 7:55:13 PM permalink
Quote: sodawater

Ace -- watch that race again. CC wasn't even running the final sixteenth. The race was already over. He was basically galloping out. In other words, he still had plenty of run left after 1 mile and 1/16th. If the Derby had been 11 furlongs instead of 10, my guess is CC would have won by a lot more.



I am not sure CC had a lot left. The jockey was whipping him pretty good and he was just holding his lead on Curve. The jockey takes a peek and decides he can make the line and quits with the whip, thats when Curve made the big gain on him. Have a look at that stretch run again.
Be careful when you follow the masses, the M is sometimes silent.
ontariodealer
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May 4th, 2014 at 8:32:46 PM permalink
this cc horse looks like a freak that comes along every 25 years.....without injury he wins triple crown.
get second you pig
aceofspades
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May 4th, 2014 at 9:23:11 PM permalink
Quote: ontariodealer

this cc horse looks like a freak that comes along every 25 years.....without injury he wins triple crown.





Although a Triple Crown winner would be a boon to thoroughbred racing, the odds are against it - does CC seem to be Secretariat to you? His time was way off Big Red's Derby record
ontariodealer
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May 4th, 2014 at 9:32:53 PM permalink
nobody will ever be a secretariat in my eyes....cc has done what he has done very easily. it looks like he could breeze in the preakness and who knows come belmont time.....the 14 horse could be a threat.
get second you pig
speedycrap
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May 4th, 2014 at 11:42:12 PM permalink
Quote: ontariodealer

nobody will ever be a secretariat in my eyes....cc has done what he has done very easily. it looks like he could breeze in the preakness and who knows come belmont time.....the 14 horse could be a threat.

Will find out in 12 days. i will bet CC to PLACE.
LarryS
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May 7th, 2014 at 8:56:34 AM permalink
I hit the tri, as the days unfolded I read alot of good things about the "other" CC......(17).....and included that in all my trifectas.

The annoying thing about betting atnevada casino was that the feed from churchil was over-ridden by NBC. Nbc had the exclusive. Curchill was blacked out. Which means as long as NBC was on the air, the continuous churchil board could not be viewed showing changing of odds, exactas etc. I could use my smart phone and check on odds. But thats about it. But for a few hours all the casino could get from churchill is the NBC feed which had a lot of interviews and an occasional view of the tote board.

I was amazed that the tri payed so much witht he fave and the third fave coming in. But thats why I like the Derby....there is money to b made.

I will sit out the preakness as I think CC will win, and if he does...I will bet the Belmont against the horse...as triple crown fever will allow for good prices on other horses.

Just as I didnt like medal count because it was running 3 races in 28 days, I will bet against the fave CC, in favor of the other CC or other more rested horses.,,since chrome like all horses going for the triple will be racing 3 races in 35 days,......in a mile and a half race, against well rested horses.

i LIKE THE ODDS AGAINST IT FROM SUCCEEDING.
LarryS
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May 7th, 2014 at 8:57:51 AM permalink
Quote: LarryS

Iduplicate

LarryS
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May 7th, 2014 at 11:00:03 AM permalink
Quote: ontariodealer

this cc horse looks like a freak that comes along every 25 years.....without injury he wins triple crown.



Ontario, I respect your comments on this subject so I ask this.

In your opinion, what makes chrome different than big brown, or smarty jones...or other "monsters"

History shows that racing 3 times in 35 days against alot of fresher horses at a mile and a half is difficult....and often a deal breaker.

What about this particular horse makes you think it is different.

Affirmed raced its closest rival alydar in all 3 triple crown races...meaning there was no advantage of resting.

In this Belmont I think there will be at least one very good well rested horse with distance pedegree

what say you???
FinsRule
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May 7th, 2014 at 11:41:04 AM permalink
If CC wins the triple crown, it will be because the other horses were not good enough.

CC is not the best 3yo since Affirmed. We can agree on that, right?
LarryS
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May 7th, 2014 at 12:53:53 PM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

If CC wins the triple crown, it will be because the other horses were not good enough.

CC is not the best 3yo since Affirmed. We can agree on that, right?



in my opinion it comes down to more than just being the best horse. For example if Alydar sat out the preakness and was well rested, and went against Affirmed....and won..would that mean alydar was a better horse?

Sarava beat war emblem who stumbled in the belmont. Sarava was a one hit wonder. Was not the better horse, but had better racing luck and was very very well rested...didnt even run in the derby.

I look at it the other way. If chrome loses its not neccesaily because it wasnt the best horse. A lesser more rested horse can beat him.
FinsRule
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May 7th, 2014 at 1:06:33 PM permalink
Quote: LarryS

in my opinion it comes down to more than just being the best horse. For example if Alydar sat out the preakness and was well rested, and went against Affirmed....and won..would that mean alydar was a better horse?

Sarava beat war emblem who stumbled in the belmont. Sarava was a one hit wonder. Was not the better horse, but had better racing luck and was very very well rested...didnt even run in the derby.

I look at it the other way. If chrome loses its not neccesaily because it wasnt the best horse. A lesser more rested horse can beat him.



I didn't say if he loses it's because he wasn't the best horse.

Obviously the best horse doesn't win every race.

I'm saying that CC is being flattered by not having great horses running against him. Not really similar to your argument which I actually happen to agree with, because it's not very controversial.
Buzzard
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May 7th, 2014 at 1:21:27 PM permalink
Gee, wait until he at least starts in the Preakness ok.
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
LarryS
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May 7th, 2014 at 1:43:47 PM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

If CC wins the triple crown, it will be because the other horses were not good enough.

CC is not the best 3yo since Affirmed. We can agree on that, right?



from the example Igave,..it works this way too

a better horse could lose to CC with a bad trip, interference

racing luck is always a good thing

If wicked strong didnt get in a tussel with candy boy, and if it had a better post position, would it have had a better kick in the end? CC may not have been the better horse....but out of the contenders it did have the better trip with enough luck not to be jostled by one of the `18 others.

I do think with most of the real contenders from the derby sitting out....CC will by default be the best horse in the preakness.

But I really didnt see anything in the last race that tells me he couldntbe caught if opponents got a favorable trip

so no, to answer your question...the better horse does not always win. And the horse that wins is not always the better horse
treetopbuddy
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May 7th, 2014 at 5:46:38 PM permalink
Quote: LarryS



Just as I didnt like medal count because it was running 3 races in 28 days, I will bet against the fave CC, in favor of the other CC or other more rested horses.,,since chrome like all horses going for the triple will be racing 3 races in 35 days,......in a mile and a half race, against well rested horses.



Facepalm, lol and whatever else.....Chrome will have raced twice in 34 days leading into the race.....and you think he might be tired or not rested? If he makes it to the Preakness and runs and comes out of the race in good shape, he will run in the Belmont if everything goes according to plan. So, that means the horse would have run flat out for 3 minutes and 51 seconds....give or take a few ticks or seconds (FinsRule, back off) in 34 days. Trust me when I say, the horses that have fallen short in their bid to win the Triple Crown at The Belmont were not tired horses. They are 8-10 furlong horses trying to run 12 furlongs. I wouldn't expect you to know that so I'm just passing on some info that might help in you handicapping adventures.......lol
Each day is better than the next
LarryS
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May 7th, 2014 at 6:19:31 PM permalink
Quote: treetopbuddy

Facepalm, lol and whatever else.....Chrome will have raced twice in 34 days leading into the race.....and you think he might be tired or not rested? If he makes it to the Preakness and runs and comes out of the race in good shape, he will run in the Belmont if everything goes according to plan. So, that means the horse would have run flat out for 3 minutes and 51 seconds....give or take a few ticks or seconds (FinsRule, back off) in 34 days. Trust me when I say, the horses that have fallen short in their bid to win the Triple Crown at The Belmont were not tired horses. They are 8-10 furlong horses trying to run 12 furlongs. I wouldn't expect you to know that so I'm just passing on some info that might help in you handicapping adventures.......lol



he will have run 3 races in 35 days....dont hide from the fact. He WILL run 3 races in 35 days.The last race being 1.5 miles. Horses that age have very little experiencer with tthat type of workload. In fact most of them have zero workload like that on their resume. The exception was medal count who most would stay away from based on its 3 races in 28 days.

laughing out loud in front of a computer terminal as you type is rather juvenile. I remember my sons when they were 8 years old would do that.

Horses dont race 3 races in 35 days for a reason....unless they are trying for the milions that the triple crown offers.

Its actually a strategy for some horse owners to keep out of the preakness in exchange for having a fresher horse for the belmont.

go argue with those trainers and owners.....
treetopbuddy
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May 7th, 2014 at 6:23:18 PM permalink
Lol......
Each day is better than the next
ontariodealer
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May 7th, 2014 at 7:27:57 PM permalink
I think it might not be that cc is so good, rather than it looks like a very poor crop of 3 yr old males this year. In fact, the fillies may be better. What I like about cc is that he really hasn't been asked or severely pressured yet so he might have quite a but left. Also, only two horses from the derby are thinking about entering the preakness (danza and ride on curlin) and that is a sign of respect that cc could be much the best. Probably bayern and social inclusion, a couple of speedy types will test cc at pimlico.
get second you pig
FinsRule
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May 7th, 2014 at 7:31:41 PM permalink
I expect Social Inclusion to be the 2nd choice in the wagering.

My longshot pick is Dynamic Impact, the winner of the Illinois Derby. Yes, that's because I won money on him when I was at Hawthorne.

My $5 trifecta will be: CC / Ride on Curlin, Dynamic Impact / Ride on Curlin, Dynamic Impact

There are worse ways to spend $10....
treetopbuddy
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May 7th, 2014 at 7:46:54 PM permalink
Quote: ontariodealer

I think it might not be that cc is so good, rather than it looks like a very poor crop of 3 yr old males this year. In fact, the fillies may be better. What I like about cc is that he really hasn't been asked or severely pressured yet so he might have quite a but left. Also, only two horses from the derby are thinking about entering the preakness (danza and ride on curlin) and that is a sign of respect that cc could be much the best. Probably bayern and social inclusion, a couple of speedy types will test cc at pimlico.



The foal crop went from 35,000 at the peak to 25,000 today. Horse sales median price has gone up.....same dollars chasing fewer horses...The 25-30% drop off in production might equate to weaker foal crops.
Each day is better than the next
Tomspur
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May 7th, 2014 at 9:20:32 PM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

I expect Social Inclusion to be the 2nd choice in the wagering.

My longshot pick is Dynamic Impact, the winner of the Illinois Derby. Yes, that's because I won money on him when I was at Hawthorne.

My $5 trifecta will be: CC / Ride on Curlin, Dynamic Impact / Ride on Curlin, Dynamic Impact

There are worse ways to spend $10....



I think wherever they run, Danza runs right up CC's backside. He was dreadfully unlucky in the Derby.
“There is something about the outside of a horse that is good for the inside of a man.” - Winston Churchill
Buzzard
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May 7th, 2014 at 9:23:32 PM permalink
I like Danza too. Social Inclusion is a longshot win only bet. The Belmont is a real jockey's race. No telling what the 6f time will be !
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
FinsRule
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May 7th, 2014 at 9:32:01 PM permalink
Quote: Tomspur

I think wherever they run, Danza runs right up CC's backside. He was dreadfully unlucky in the Derby.



I was assuming danza skipping the Preakness. Which he should. If he doesn't, then he'll be 2nd choice for sure.
Tomspur
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May 7th, 2014 at 9:41:14 PM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

I was assuming danza skipping the Preakness. Which he should. If he doesn't, then he'll be 2nd choice for sure.



Based on his pedigree I think the Preakness distance would be his ideal trip. I don't think he should skip the Preakness at all as I think he would be most competitive there. Going for the Belmont would be foolish with him I think.
“There is something about the outside of a horse that is good for the inside of a man.” - Winston Churchill
ontariodealer
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May 7th, 2014 at 10:11:34 PM permalink
danza announced for sure and ride on curlin a maybe.....all other derby starters are passing the preakness.
get second you pig
ten2win
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May 14th, 2014 at 5:20:08 PM permalink
I'd like to get this thread resurrected.

When is the PP draw?

Any thoughts in the past 7 days?
I don't know everything but I know a lot.
Tomspur
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May 14th, 2014 at 5:22:17 PM permalink
1 Dynamic Impact Miguel Mena Mark Casse 12-1 2 General a Rod Javier Castellano Mike Maker 15-1 3 California Chrome Victor Espinoza Art Sherman 3-5 4 Ring Weekend Alan Garcia H. Graham Motion 20-1 5 Bayern Rosie Napravnik Bob Baffert 10-1 6 Ria Antonia Calvin Borel Tom Amoss 30-1 7 Kid Cruz Julian Pimentel Linda Rice 20-1 8 Social Inclusion Luis Contreras Manny Azpurua 5-1 9 Pablo Del Monte Jeffrey Sanchez Wesley Ward 20-1 10 Ride On Curlin Joel Rosario William Gowan 10-1

Read more on BloodHorse.com: http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/85069/california-chrome-gets-post-3-for-preakness#ixzz31jt2ffuo
“There is something about the outside of a horse that is good for the inside of a man.” - Winston Churchill
Tomspur
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May 14th, 2014 at 5:22:53 PM permalink
Quote: Tomspur

1 Dynamic Impact Miguel Mena Mark Casse 12-1 2 General a Rod Javier Castellano Mike Maker 15-1 3 California Chrome Victor Espinoza Art Sherman 3-5 4 Ring Weekend Alan Garcia H. Graham Motion 20-1 5 Bayern Rosie Napravnik Bob Baffert 10-1 6 Ria Antonia Calvin Borel Tom Amoss 30-1 7 Kid Cruz Julian Pimentel Linda Rice 20-1 8 Social Inclusion Luis Contreras Manny Azpurua 5-1 9 Pablo Del Monte Jeffrey Sanchez Wesley Ward 20-1 10 Ride On Curlin Joel Rosario William Gowan 10-1

Read more on BloodHorse.com: http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/85069/california-chrome-gets-post-3-for-preakness#ixzz31jt2ffuo



Even 3/5 is an excellent price in this field. He goes off shorter than that!!!
“There is something about the outside of a horse that is good for the inside of a man.” - Winston Churchill
FinsRule
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May 14th, 2014 at 7:21:55 PM permalink
Quote: Tomspur

Even 3/5 is an excellent price in this field. He goes off shorter than that!!!



No, he doesn't.

I think the only one that can beat CC is Social Inclusion. And that's only if Pablo and Bayern get off slow, and SI gets an easy lead. So he's either win or off the board for me. I'm putting the closers in my trifecta.

In my multi-race bets (Double, Pick-3, Pick-4) I'll probably single CC in the Pick-4. Put SI and CC in the DD and P3.

Here is my Preakness bet:

$5 Trifecta - 3 / 1, 7, 10 / 1, 7, 10 = $30
Buzzard
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May 14th, 2014 at 7:25:45 PM permalink
Fin you underestimate the number of Baltimorons that go to the races only on Preakness day. 1/5 is the likely price.

Sham had beaten Secretariat in the Wood Memorial. Then finished 2nd in the Derby. But Secretariat was 1/5 in the Preakness.

Secretariat came from 11th in the Derby CC was with the early leaders. 1/5 in the minds of fans everywhere, right or wrong !
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
Tomspur
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May 14th, 2014 at 7:27:10 PM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

No, he doesn't.

I think the only one that can beat CC is Social Inclusion. And that's only if Pablo and Bayern get off slow, and SI gets an easy lead. So he's either win or off the board for me. I'm putting the closers in my trifecta.

In my multi-race bets (Double, Pick-3, Pick-4) I'll probably single CC in the Pick-4. Put SI and CC in the DD and P3.

Here is my Preakness bet:

$5 Trifecta - 3 / 1, 7, 10 / 1, 7, 10 = $30



Then what do you think he goes off at Fin?

In this field of mediocrity, he should murder them with little or no effort.

I like your ticket but would include the 4 Ring Weekend as the trainer thinks highly of him.
“There is something about the outside of a horse that is good for the inside of a man.” - Winston Churchill
coilman
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May 14th, 2014 at 7:27:36 PM permalink
Quote: Buzzard

Fin you underestimate the number of Baltimorons that go to the races only on Preakness day. 1/5 is the likely price.



Just don't turn the WRONG way leaving that track .... I did and survived
Tomspur
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May 14th, 2014 at 7:30:56 PM permalink
Quote: coilman

Just don't turn the WRONG way leaving that track .... I did and survived



That seems like one crazy party man. I have seen the youtube videos.....doesn't even seem like there is a horse race within 200 miles of that place!!!
“There is something about the outside of a horse that is good for the inside of a man.” - Winston Churchill
ontariodealer
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May 14th, 2014 at 7:37:42 PM permalink
I think this is one of the easiest exacta boxes in years.....social inclusion destroys all the other speed and cc comes from off of it and they are the two on the wire.
get second you pig
speedycrap
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May 14th, 2014 at 7:43:29 PM permalink
Anyone with the past performance link please?
FinsRule
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May 14th, 2014 at 8:13:37 PM permalink
Quote: ontariodealer

I think this is one of the easiest exacta boxes in years.....social inclusion destroys all the other speed and cc comes from off of it and they are the two on the wire.



I'll have another / Bodemeister was super easy.
Buzzard
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May 14th, 2014 at 8:14:19 PM permalink
Quote: coilman

Just don't turn the WRONG way leaving that track .... I did and survived

I grew up a few blocks from the track.Loved Preakness day. Parked cars for $5 on neighbors front lawns. Were they ever pissed when they got home LOL
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
FinsRule
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May 14th, 2014 at 8:19:37 PM permalink
Quote: Tomspur

Then what do you think he goes off at Fin?

In this field of mediocrity, he should murder them with little or no effort.

I like your ticket but would include the 4 Ring Weekend as the trainer thinks highly of him.



He should be 4-5. I say he goes off at 3-5. I guess 1-2 wouldnt surprise me. 1-5 means I'll have to bet on SI.
ontariodealer
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PBguy
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May 14th, 2014 at 10:17:03 PM permalink
I understand why CC is the favorite but there is plenty that can go wrong in a long race. Not sure I'd bet on CC to win given the return. But I do HOPE he wins. I'd love to see another Triple Crown Winner. It's been far too long and would be good for the sport IMO.
sodawater
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May 15th, 2014 at 1:42:05 AM permalink
Quote: PBguy

I understand why CC is the favorite but there is plenty that can go wrong in a long race. Not sure I'd bet on CC to win given the return. But I do HOPE he wins. I'd love to see another Triple Crown Winner. It's been far too long and would be good for the sport IMO.



The Preakness is going to be a formality for CC if he is fully healthy. It's the Belmont that will be the tough test.
onenickelmiracle
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May 15th, 2014 at 1:58:42 AM permalink
Quote: PBguy

I understand why CC is the favorite but there is plenty that can go wrong in a long race. Not sure I'd bet on CC to win given the return. But I do HOPE he wins. I'd love to see another Triple Crown Winner. It's been far too long and would be good for the sport IMO.

I don't understand how a triple crown winner is good when it's such a temporary thing. People say that but I don't grasp the concept.
I am a robot.
Tomspur
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May 15th, 2014 at 3:14:16 PM permalink
Seems like CC has a small blister in his throat. Aparently it showed up even before the Derby.......

These types of things bother me just a little. Probably enough, combined with the short price, to not have a bet on the Preakness. I'm patiently waiting for the Belmont :)
“There is something about the outside of a horse that is good for the inside of a man.” - Winston Churchill
treetopbuddy
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May 15th, 2014 at 5:38:21 PM permalink
Interesting that Chrome had the lowest winning Beyers speed fig since number was published in 1992. His Ragozin number was the lowest ever.

Chrome's connections have me rooting against the horse. He will not be on any of my tickets. That makes him a guaranteed lock.
Each day is better than the next
Tomspur
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May 15th, 2014 at 5:41:01 PM permalink
Quote: treetopbuddy

Interesting that Chrome had the lowest winning Beyers speed fig since number was published in 1992. His Ragozin number was the lowest ever.

Chrome's connections have me rooting against the horse. He will not be on any of my tickets. That makes him a guaranteed lock.



One day your own cynisizm will backfire on you ttb :)
“There is something about the outside of a horse that is good for the inside of a man.” - Winston Churchill
Beardgoat
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May 16th, 2014 at 12:30:22 PM permalink
What websites are good to use to get expert opinion and horse analysis? I'd like to read some more info
Sabretom2
Sabretom2
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Joined: Mar 3, 2013
May 16th, 2014 at 1:03:32 PM permalink
Quote: Beardgoat

What websites are good to use to get expert opinion and horse analysis? I'd like to read some more info



I use DRF.com
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