speedycrap
speedycrap
  • Threads: 46
  • Posts: 1310
Joined: Oct 13, 2013
June 8th, 2014 at 6:30:14 PM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

What about the Breeders Cup?

AH !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Maybe
LarryS
LarryS
  • Threads: 67
  • Posts: 1410
Joined: Feb 26, 2011
June 8th, 2014 at 7:34:09 PM permalink
Quote: artvandelay

It appears as if the ill-fated
treetopbuddy saw the Belmont
post race interview coming from
12 furlongs away.



the post race interview was really bad form

the owner says that the other horse cheated by just runing in the belmont

The rules that exisited for thelast 100 years havent change....what the heck is he thinking

Isnt it enough that the NYRA bent over backward to allow the nasal strip even thought it wasnt allowed in the past.

Acoording tot he owner/part owner.....the horses running in the belmont should olny be allowed if they run both the preakness and KD

all fine and dandy, except if thats the case....there would only be 3or4 horses in the Belmont each year. Thats just great....a triple crown winner beating 3 other horses...what a race.
LarryS
LarryS
  • Threads: 67
  • Posts: 1410
Joined: Feb 26, 2011
June 8th, 2014 at 7:34:11 PM permalink
duplicate
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
  • Threads: 212
  • Posts: 8277
Joined: Jan 26, 2012
June 8th, 2014 at 7:40:38 PM permalink
Welcome back LarryS. You really are invaluable to the horse racing discussion.
I am a robot.
LarryS
LarryS
  • Threads: 67
  • Posts: 1410
Joined: Feb 26, 2011
June 8th, 2014 at 7:58:15 PM permalink
Quote: ontariodealer

I hit the 20 cent super for 751 bucks.....a nose either way with 2/9 and get much more or zero.



good going with that win. I won almost 3400 for the tri box(2700 after cost of tickets and tip).....not becuse I am a great handicapper of horses.....but because I bet the situation and not the indiviual horses.

All I did was handicapp one horse.....Chrome.. Once I was convinced that chrome had a good chance of losing....I felt comfortable putting almost 400 dllars on a tri wheel 7/9/9horses

So with no triple crown winner for 35 years, I felt the odds were in my favor, With chrome never having a previous race at belmont(which every single triple crown winner has had).....was a good sign against chrome. With the last 3 speed figures leveling off .....showed to me that chrome had already peaked and a horse on the upswing could improve to beat him. The analysts claimed the field was filled with tough comeptition which also was in my favor. Espinosa was making the rounds as if he won the thing....he was on letterman a few days BEFORE. The betting public was in love with the horse that was owned by the common man rather than by a middle eastern sheik billionaire.Plus alot of rested horses going against a horse that races 3 times in 35 days. Add it all up and I didnt have to handicapp much else when I bet 7 horses/9 horses/9 horses

with the betting pool building up with all the hype....I was comfortable betting almost 400 in a tri, and another 100 on some exactas which I lost.

it wasnt a big win considering....its like I won 5-6 times my initial bet. If i was a great handicapper I could have bet 300 on tonalist straight up to win....and avoided all the combos etc.

But I am not that good at that stuff.....thats why I bet the situation more than betting the race.

I remember in the War EMBLEM RACE.....right before the race for the triple crown, minutes before posttime...baffert was interviewed and he advised the public to empty out their bank accounts and put it on his horse. Of course he wasnt seriously giving out financial advice.....but its that kind of cockiness, and betting public overbetting that makes things interesting. In the end sarava 70-1 won and paid me a trifecta 9-10k if i remember correctly.

this type situation/opportuity(large payouts) generally happens in the DERBY due to the large field, or the belmont due to a darling being overbet.
LarryS
LarryS
  • Threads: 67
  • Posts: 1410
Joined: Feb 26, 2011
June 8th, 2014 at 8:01:02 PM permalink
Quote: onenickelmiracle

Welcome back LarryS. You really are invaluable to the horse racing discussion.



thanks...I wanted to give my ideas earlier..but the board didnt open to me until a few minutes ago.
ontariodealer
ontariodealer
  • Threads: 7
  • Posts: 999
Joined: Aug 5, 2013
June 8th, 2014 at 8:04:20 PM permalink
the tri was the better payout with the CC horse running 4th.....I got lucky as I ran the all in the second spot when i had planned to put it in the 1 spot. As we discussed larry, that predicteform was pretty bang on.
get second you pig
FinsRule
FinsRule
  • Threads: 129
  • Posts: 3917
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
June 8th, 2014 at 8:09:25 PM permalink
Larry - I like the bet and explanation. I appreciate it when someone tells the truth and just says they didn't know who would win, just didn't like the favorite. Good job.

I didn't bet the Belmont, because I didn't want to root against cc and I sure as hell wasn't going to bet on him.
LarryS
LarryS
  • Threads: 67
  • Posts: 1410
Joined: Feb 26, 2011
June 8th, 2014 at 8:13:47 PM permalink
Quote: ontariodealer

the tri was the better payout with the CC horse running 4th.....I got lucky as I ran the all in the second spot when i had planned to put it in the 1 spot. As we discussed larry, that predicteform was pretty bang on.




I seeeeeeeeeeeee

But you do handicapping all year around. I admit I am not that great at it for horses. For other sports yes....but not horses. So I may not be looking at another race for 11 months. Maybe I might do one breeders cup.
artvandelay
artvandelay
  • Threads: 0
  • Posts: 25
Joined: Jun 5, 2014
June 9th, 2014 at 7:48:09 AM permalink
For anybody interested go to the
DRF and take a look a Chrome's
injury. That will stop any horse.
LarryS
LarryS
  • Threads: 67
  • Posts: 1410
Joined: Feb 26, 2011
June 9th, 2014 at 8:41:46 AM permalink
Quote: artvandelay

For anybody interested go to the
DRF and take a look a Chrome's
injury. That will stop any horse.



http://www.cnn.com/2014/06/08/sport/california-chrome-injury/

the trainer says its superficial. The trainer says the reason the horse lost was that it needed more time between races. The owner was stll complaining on sunday about his horse having to go up against fresher horses.(although he apologized today) In the end the horses that raced all 3 races of the triple crown did not do well.
Although the late treetop scolded us that racing 3 times in 35 days was not a big deal....its only 5-6 minutes of racing according to him....lol

meanwhile owners, and trainers say differently.Not just of CC....but other trainers that said the schedule was grueling.(but thats the way its always been)

the injury according to the trainer does hot cause pain and is treated with just a bandage.

I wlll side with the trainers opinion.
Sabretom2
Sabretom2
  • Threads: 11
  • Posts: 718
Joined: Mar 3, 2013
June 9th, 2014 at 8:49:41 AM permalink
Quote: Sabretom2


I've got it all on the 2 to win. There's a reason this colt is the odds on favorite. I worry bout the 8 (breeding). I'll most likely put something on 8, I hate those "I knew it!", moments.



Don't I look smart?
LarryS
LarryS
  • Threads: 67
  • Posts: 1410
Joined: Feb 26, 2011
June 9th, 2014 at 9:34:39 AM permalink
Quote: Sabretom2

Don't I look smart?



good call on 8

the horse had its own twitter handle....@bredforbelmont
artvandelay
artvandelay
  • Threads: 0
  • Posts: 25
Joined: Jun 5, 2014
June 11th, 2014 at 6:51:30 AM permalink
Four or five Triple Crown winners raced in the
Withers after the Preakness and before the
Belmont. The others all faced new shooters
trying their best to take down the favorite.

Chrome was not tired. The exercise rider did
everything he could to hold back Chrome during
his gallop the day before the race. He was
coming out of his skin. He looked great, rested
and ready to go.

Sherman was careful not to make excuses for
his charge. Most folks in the industry know that
grabbing a quarter in a serious deal and is very
painful. The injury was where the rubber meets
the road. Many believe the injury may have affected
his performance. Hard to know.

The Triple Crown is over hyped. The races are
restricted to three year olds. The best horses are
the older horses that can stand up to training and
actually have a racing career.
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
  • Threads: 9
  • Posts: 2271
Joined: Jun 13, 2014
June 15th, 2014 at 5:34:02 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Ka-ching!



Online. You can't get fixed odds here in Vegas since it is para-mutual.



While it is certainly true that the overwhelming bulk of business in Nevada books is in pari-mutual wagering, their contracts with the host tracks do not preclude them from also offering house-banked fixed-odds wagers, and many do so.

I can easily understand how one might get that impression, especially if racing isn't someone's "main thing" that they routinely do all the time, but actually you're mistaken about that. Sorry, I'm loath to disagree with Mr. Wizard of all folks, in my first post no less, but this may be relevant in a practical way to some who like to play the props that are commonly available at some of the major books such as Wynn (always at Wynn if nowhere else) and LVH, and others, as some of them will shortly be hanging "house banked" non-parimutual lines on a variety of prop bets for the Breeder's Cup. I have an extensive multi-page menu of Wynn's Breeder's Cup props in front of me right now. I don't normally get involved in gimmicky prop wagers and do most of my business in the pari-mutual wagers that are transmitted directly into the host track's pools, but I had multiple fixed odds tickets from brick & mortar Las Vegas books on the "Triple Crown - NO" position this year. Though it looks like you got a better price online than I did locally, so congrats.

Quoting myself from a thread of mine on a different sort of forum, where I am "Local Rock" & kinda the resident horse guy in a mostly poker forum (*Note below):

[ http://www.pokeratlas.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=83&t=20618&sid=aae9304492a0dbb96ef1463a67070200&start=50 ]


Quote: Local Rock

There seem to be a lot more venues putting up a future book line for yes/no on the Triple Crown than I remember seeing in other years, and also on a yes/no prop of whether the Derby winner will also win the Preakness specifically – I don't recall seeing that one before at all. There is some variation (mostly in the juice built in) but they are running around -140 for “yes” & +120 for “no” on the Preakness, and +200 “yes” & -250 “no” on a Triple Crown for California Chrome going on to take both the Preakness & Belmont Stakes. That is a lower than usual potential payout for the “yes” side on the TC prop.

I have officially gone to the “Dark Side.” Perhaps I am just stubborn after this horse beat me, but I don't think so, and soon I'll be pasting a polite fake smile on my face while rooting for alomost all the excited enthusiastic fans cheering in the books and whatnot to go home sad.

...<SNIP>...

I'm not in the habit of getting involved in this prop, but with the enthusiasm for this horse I think there is some real value in the “no” side of the Triple Crown prop, at an implied probability of... <SNIP> ...I've bought a ticket on “NO – Triple Crown” and may consider adding to that position...<SNIP>...I particularly like the chances of Tonalist, a colt by Tapit out of a Pleasant Colony mare trained by Cristophe Clement. I was looking forward to him for...

...<SNIP>...



Quote: Local Rock

...<SNIP>...Shortly after the Preakness the William Hill line on the Triple Crown prop moved to make "yes" a -125 favorite and "no" became the +105 dog. I'm currently holding several tickets for a significant amount on "no" booked at fixed prices ranging between -250 & -200. And when that colt was cooling out after the race I believe I caught him sneering and laughing at me personally & individually through the video feed in the book. Good thing I wasn't watching at home, or I'm pretty sure he'd have crapped on my carpet through the TV; this horse is on a mission to make a fool of me, and doing a fine job of it. So far. But if he lays an egg stretching out further to a mile and a half at Belmont I can still get to laugh my way to the bank.



*Note: After reading the "Forum Rules" hope I've stayed within bounds here, quoting myself (only) and linking to the thread with the full text of the original.
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
mickeycrimm
mickeycrimm
  • Threads: 62
  • Posts: 2299
Joined: Jul 13, 2013
June 15th, 2014 at 6:27:41 PM permalink
Great Post, Mr. Dead. Welcome to WoV.
"Quit trying your luck and start trying your skill." Mickey Crimm
beachbumbabs
beachbumbabs
  • Threads: 100
  • Posts: 14267
Joined: May 21, 2013
June 15th, 2014 at 6:52:49 PM permalink
Quote: DrawingDead



Quoting myself from a thread of mine on a different sort of forum, where I am "Local Rock" & kinda the resident horse guy in a mostly poker forum (*Note below):








*Note: After reading the "Forum Rules" hope I've stayed within bounds here, quoting myself (only) and linking to the thread with the full text of the original.



DD;

The rules heavily discourage first posts containing links, because it's a common spammer trick. I very much appreciate your having read them, and I think you brought a lot of value to your first post, so in my opinion, the link should stay. (I could be overruled, but the only consequence is likely to be the link getting disabled.) Welcome to the forum, and I hope we hear more from you. :)
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
  • Jump to: