The never-ending horse thread
From the chart " BASE COMMAND cut over to the inside before departing the
backstretch, responded when set down after coming into the stretch, launching a good rail rally to claim the place, then still appeared to have plenty run left
until substantially past the wire"
Look to me like he might be worth a bet, plus your opponent might go for AIRTOUCH.
Races tomorrow Monday, race 8. So I'm supposed to bet against right. 😂 I'll have no way of knowing if there is a minus pool, but will bet the other 5 horses to show just in case with a 1-6 exacta box.Quote: ontariodealerNever, ever. Bridge jump against Hotspur harriat at the mountain....you're welcome
$25 WP
$10W/$20P/$20 show
$50W/$50P
$20/$30/$50
Etc.
For example:
$1 exacta 1/2
$1 exacta 1/2
2 bets $2
Or do you have to print two separate tickets?
Quote: ontariodealerNever, ever. Bridge jump against Hotspur harriat at the mountain....you're welcome
oops, youre right...ihad the wrong name
Quote: onenickelmiracleHeard some guy bet $50 to win on a 99/1 horse that lost by a nose. Since he got nothing, how would you bet the $50 or how would you bet more if you had $100. I think $50 was his remaining BR, then he left to go to a bank ATM.
$25 WP
$10W/$20P/$20 show
$50W/$50P
$20/$30/$50
Etc.
I'd either do a $25 WP, or I'd look at the Exacta probables and see how my value was looking there.
Quote: onenickelmiracleIf you bet $1 EX which pays $320, and make two separate bets on a ticket, is that ticket a reportable jackpot or paid $640 no questions asked?
For example:
$1 exacta 1/2
$1 exacta 1/2
2 bets $2
Or do you have to print two separate tickets?
You have to print two separate tickets.
Quote: onenickelmiracleRaces tomorrow Monday, race 8. So I'm supposed to bet against right. 😂 I'll have no way of knowing if there is a minus pool, but will bet the other 5 horses to show just in case with a 1-6 exacta box.
She wins, and the longest shot on the board finishes 2nd.
She looked good, wish I didn't bet against her in the handicapping contest. I did play 1-6 ex box, but not the show bets.Quote: FinsRuleShe wins, and the longest shot on the board finishes 2nd.
Liked the 5 in race 9, and race 1, the six. I think Island Girl had won her last race, but was disqualified, hoped she would have pulled it off. Off the green, it raced last year at Mountaineer on turf, came in second and didn't go back to the grass. It was 58/1 in a 5 horse race and paid $10 to place, thought it was going to be much more and it was a surprise disappointment. Off the green did almost win, that was quite a close, but not good enough.
He must have been scratched.Quote: onenickelmiracleMountaineer race 2, $23000 show bet on the 2, $5000 almost on the 2, $4000 place, on the 2 Siteenparksidelane in an 8 horse field.
1. Royal Albert Hall, Corey Nakatani, 30-1
2. Collected, Martin Garcia, 5-2
3. Accelerate, Victor Espinoza, 3-1
4. Sorry Erik, Kent Desormeaux, 30-1
5. Hard Aces, Santiago Gonzalez, 20-1
6. Donworth, Mario Gutierrez, 15-1
7. Curlin Road, Flavien Prat, 20-1
8. Arrogate, Mike Smith, even-money
Note -- The Pacific Classic will be televised live by NBCSN from 5-6 p.m.
http://www.dailynews.com/sports/20170815/arrogate-is-the-favorite-for-pacific-classic-at-del-mar
Quote: onenickelmiracleThat's always blowing my mind horses like the 5 getting into the money such as was the case in race 8. Seems if the other horses can't win, they quit and fizzle. It's hard for me to grasp how a horse just gives up or just empties. It's like when you bet, try doing two reasoned things and one random dumb thing. It's funny how sometimes it seems a horse can't win, but it has nothing to do with otherwise hitting the board.
Here's a story of the horse I own a small percentage of. She won her first race. Beaten 3/4 of a length in her 2nd race when she bled. On lasix for her 3rd race, she was off at odds on. She was leading the whole way, traveling comfortably, and then just stopped in the stretch to finish last. The person standing next to me yelled "she's a quitter!" I flipped out on him for saying such a rude thing in the owner's area.
Anyway, a few days later we find out she has a hairline fracture.
I've owned parts of 4 horses, and I think it's made me a better handicapper. Because, it's driven home the fact that they are animals, and you can't the whole story by just looking at the page, or even by looking at them in person.
Quote: lilredroosterarrogate is running again saturday in the pacific classic at del mar. even money on the morning line. so tell me. if you guys had to bet on this race would you bet with him or against him? for me it would definitely be against. i don't buy baffert's explanation. or course, i acknowledge i could be wrong. here's the field and odds:
1. Royal Albert Hall, Corey Nakatani, 30-1
2. Collected, Martin Garcia, 5-2
3. Accelerate, Victor Espinoza, 3-1
4. Sorry Erik, Kent Desormeaux, 30-1
5. Hard Aces, Santiago Gonzalez, 20-1
6. Donworth, Mario Gutierrez, 15-1
7. Curlin Road, Flavien Prat, 20-1
8. Arrogate, Mike Smith, even-money
Note -- The Pacific Classic will be televised live by NBCSN from 5-6 p.m.
http://www.dailynews.com/sports/20170815/arrogate-is-the-favorite-for-pacific-classic-at-del-mar
I'd probably still single to Arrogate in the pick-4. And if you gave me $100 to make a win bet at those odds, I'd also bet it on Arrogate. Now if he is bet down to 2-5 or something, then I'd have to bet on Collected.
If I do bet, it would be something like a pick-4, and not a single bet on this race. This is a stay away race for sure.
yay or nay?
It sure is tempting. I was at home yesterday, the Pacific Classic draw show interrupted the Mountaineer race, and what they had shown was very small and hard to read. However pretty sure every horse was 20/1 or greater, most 40/1. It's easier for a horse to not win, than for a horse to not at least show. You can bet every horse to win or you can bet more on a few, or some hybrid approach. I'd say, depends on the race, track, etc. As a rule, I'd probably guess with the odds so crazy, you have to go for the win more often than not.Quote: lilredroosterFin: what is your opinion of betting against the jumpers' horse in the win pool if its odds are 1/9 or less? the downside: you won't win as much when you win because in a field of 7 you guarantee yourself 5 losers instead of 3 in the show pool. and only one winner instead of 3 when you do win. the upside is that you still win if the jumpers' horse gets 2nd or 3rd.
yay or nay?
Whoever bet yesterday was stupid jumping on the show bet, but also the win and place pool. They gained nothing on the two extra bets but risk as far as I could tell.
Does seem vulnerable after the last race, not really sure. The latest news, Mike Smith though having to break before the turn was what got him, sounded like a good excuse, then during the draw show, the announcer noted Mike Smith didn't seem happy after seeing Arrogate was on the far outside post #8. With it all, I still think Arrogate will win, the race has enough distance for him.Quote: lilredroosterarrogate is running again saturday in the pacific classic at del mar. even money on the morning line. so tell me. if you guys had to bet on this race would you bet with him or against him? for me it would definitely be against. i don't buy baffert's explanation. or course, i acknowledge i could be wrong. here's the field and odds:
1. Royal Albert Hall, Corey Nakatani, 30-1
2. Collected, Martin Garcia, 5-2
3. Accelerate, Victor Espinoza, 3-1
4. Sorry Erik, Kent Desormeaux, 30-1
5. Hard Aces, Santiago Gonzalez, 20-1
6. Donworth, Mario Gutierrez, 15-1
7. Curlin Road, Flavien Prat, 20-1
8. Arrogate, Mike Smith, even-money
Note -- The Pacific Classic will be televised live by NBCSN from 5-6 p.m.
http://www.dailynews.com/sports/20170815/arrogate-is-the-favorite-for-pacific-classic-at-del-mar
Added: I'm certainly having my doubts the more I see, the more I think about it. There isn't much confidence exuded from Mike Smith from the interview I just saw. I might know what to try if I think Arrogate will win, but if I think he might not win, I won't know what should be done.
What do you do, how to bet, what just box all 7 in a trifecta? It's funny I'm debating between that and keying him to win. There certainly is doubt.
I understand the horses are animals, just the fact it seems like perceived odds of winning the race have nothing to do with place, show, and fourth. Just because a horse cannot win a race, it doesn't mean the horse can't make the board. Especially more so the more horses in a race.Quote: FinsRuleHere's a story of the horse I own a small percentage of. She won her first race. Beaten 3/4 of a length in her 2nd race when she bled. On lasix for her 3rd race, she was off at odds on. She was leading the whole way, traveling comfortably, and then just stopped in the stretch to finish last. The person standing next to me yelled "she's a quitter!" I flipped out on him for saying such a rude thing in the owner's area.
Anyway, a few days later we find out she has a hairline fracture.
I've owned parts of 4 horses, and I think it's made me a better handicapper. Because, it's driven home the fact that they are animals, and you can't the whole story by just looking at the page, or even by looking at them in person.
Plus sometimes in some races it seems like the jockeys have unwritten rules to just maintain current placing once it's clear none of them can win.
Horse betting is a pari-mutuel, you are technically betting against the other people. When someone is bridge jumping, they're trying to take advantage of loop holes about the minimum a bet can pay, with a whole lot risked for a very small return, they are 100% convinced is safe.Quote: FleaStiffbridge jumping, Dutching, ... its all too confusing to me. Tranquilizing darts take time and require expert marksmen. Easier to granquilize the jockey.
Quote: onenickelmiracleWhat do you do, how to bet,
unless they're bet down i think i'm going to bet both collected and accelerate to win. if i'm right about arrogate not being the same horse he once was and if a shot doesn't wake up and stiff me the bet will win.
I have no idea what that even is.Quote: coilmanWhat would you T bred bettors call this warm up
https://streamable.com/7wlui
I was excited thinking there were going to be 8 horses, now it's going to be lame. A five or six horse race is pathetic from betting and entertainment standpoints.Quote: Paulick ReportKeith Desormeaux, trainer of 3-year-old Sorry Erik, thought the No. 4 was a good post, but said he'll have to do some serious thinking before fully committing to the Classic. The Grade II $250,000 Del Mar Derby, at 1 1/8 miles on grass September 3, beckons.
“He runs well on dirt or turf and he'll love the mile and a quarter, so there is some inclination to run,” Desormeaux said. “But in all probability, we won't. The Del Mar Derby is the goal. If the field comes up with any more than five, I'll wait for the Del Mar Derby.”
Sadler did not enter Hard Aces in Saturday's Del Mar Handicap as he had previously indicated he might. That would have meant withdrawing the veteran handicap division runner from the Pacific Classic. Sadler said he'll monitor developments in the coming days before making a decision.
Horses can be scratched as late as two hours before the race, which has a post time of approximately 5:40 as the eighth on an 11-race card. The TVG Pacific Classic is a “Win and You're In” qualifier for the $6 million Breeders' Cup Classic here on November 4.
Quote: lilredroosterFin: what is your opinion of betting against the jumpers' horse in the win pool if its odds are 1/9 or less? the downside: you won't win as much when you win because in a field of 7 you guarantee yourself 5 losers instead of 3 in the show pool. and only one winner instead of 3 when you do win. the upside is that you still win if the jumpers' horse gets 2nd or 3rd.
yay or nay?
I wouldn't bet all the horses. I'd just treat the win pool like a normal race. Usually if there's a 1/9 shot, you have real good value on the 2nd choice.
I don't understand how horses get to 1/9. Who is betting on a 1/9 to win, when you can bet them to show? Anyway tracks aren't all equal. A 1/9 at Saratoga is a higher quality horse than a 1/9 at Mountaineer.
Quote: coilmanWhat would you T bred bettors call this warm up
https://streamable.com/7wlui
Who is the driver? Has he been punished?
oh by the way, just watching the races again tonight, noticed something quite unusual about the 5 I hadn't noticed Monday night. Nocturnal Q, didn't have a lead pony. The jockey rode his horse out cool calm and collected. That's impressive she didn't need a lead pony. She was ridden by Kevin Gonzalez, not Erik Barbaran, since Barbaran was injured in the paddock.Quote: FinsRuleShe wins, and the longest shot on the board finishes 2nd.
Quote: FleaStiff... its all too confusing to me.
if you take a little time to absorb it all you might find it more enjoyable then other forms of gambling. there's plenty of introductory info on the web and in books.
There is something that bothers me I saw on TVG. During the post show, the announcer clearly pointed out Mike Smith did not seem happy, clearly bothered about drawing the 8 post. A day later, Brittany Eurton starts an interview with Mike Smith, that was apparently taped right after the draw show, and she asserts emphatically Mike Smith was not bothered by the draw. They're using Arrogate to pump up bets on him.
Right now I'm leaning against Arrogate, still deliberating. The distance has to be considered. Arrogate might be able to gear up, depends if he wants to run.
Quote: FinsRuleWho is the driver? Has he been punished?
JAMIESON,JODY C
ON - EXTENTION OF PROBATION
PROBATION IS EXTENDED FROM MARCH 23 2018 TO MAY 23 2018
PROBATION RULING SB 49410 IS ADDED ON TO
BREACH OF PROBATION RULING SB 50661 AND 50660
Commission Rule Number : 1.09
Date Issued : 15-AUG-2017
Violation Occurred : at MOHAWK RACETRACK
JAMIESON,JODY C
ON - BREACH OF PROBATION
Commission Rule Number : 1.09
Date Issued : 15-AUG-2017
Total Due : 500.00
Violation Occurred : Race 8 at MOHAWK RACETRACK on 11-AUG-2017 horse FOREVER LIZA
JAMIESON,JODY C
ON - MISCONDUCT PREJUDICIAL TO THE BEST INTERESTS OF RACING
Commission Rule Number : 1.09,6.20(B)
Date Issued : 15-AUG-2017
Total Due : 500.00
Violation Occurred : Race 8 at MOHAWK RACETRACK on 11-AUG-2017 horse FOREVER LIZA
In the more dignified Thoroughbred racing, a whip is used. There are jockeys who are so proficient at whipping that a horse will not eat for 3 days afterwards.
80% of show money on #1 horse at Charles Town - Race 5. 8 horses. I did not bet against, but if I had money in my ADW, I would bet $2 on all other to show here.
What kind of strategy for a small ticket would you advise. Single a few races, triple up in two? Single up in three, double in three? To keep a spend under $20 I mean. Isn't it true, you just have to be a maniac with crazy luck to hit 6 for the jackpot anyway? What kind of ranges do 5/6 or 6/6(when no single jackpot) pay when there are carryovers and mandatory payouts? What are good strategies playing $100-$200 tickets.
I'm interested in your advice and stories about such things.
Added: I flip flop a lot when it comes to betting on horses. When I don't, it's usually trouble. I'll probably not bet the p6 or play a smaller ticket. The Del Mar Oaks is key, the Pacific Classic is key, race 6 might be a tough one. P6s are for people comfortable losing loads and loads. I guess I'm sobering up mostly from being so sure Arrogate will fail again with zero hope of winning. Bob Baffert will scratch him if so, really has to, if it's the case. Better to never race again than ruin breeding potential. He might be vulnerable, it's definitely not a case of Arrogate either wins by a mile or loses by a mile and nothing else. It's funny even thinking about these tickets, you start becoming afraid to leave out horses or not afraid to keep adding more. I think it's just greed so different than other bets and I hate it dropping loads all at once on so many horses. I'd never bet on 3 horses to win a race(almost never) and it's not for me. So scary writing down numbers you don't bet, because then you might find out you passed on a large jackpot. You'll need 6/6 even if a carryover plays Saturday.
sorry if i sound like a commercial but these pics are bumpin
https://alphauniverse.com/stories/sony-a9-goes-to-the-races/
Quote: lilredroosterFin: did you ever bet hong kong racing? huge pools, big fields, free PPs with lots of info. lots of asian gamblers betting lucky numbers. i once looked at the results of about 40 of their races and found only 1 favorite under 2/1. big fields but still. some u.s. legal online books front them. i tried it but gave it up. it felt too weird. like i was a stranger in a strange land. still, lots of opportunity there.
I think they just opened it up on ADW sites in the US. I don't really bet international. Too hard! I will be watching International racing tonight as the best horse in the world (Winx) will be racing in Australia.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frank_Hayes_(jockey)
