Election Betting Odds
In other news, 50% of restaurants can't pay the rent, and car dealers are left holding cars they overpaid for and they aren't selling at auction anymore. Car dealers days are numbered. Wells Fargo says they've seen a 90% drop in mortgage origination. Yeah, the economy is going completely down the drain one way or another.
If we can exchange via Crypto. You have a deal.Quote: QuadrigaQuote: AxelWolfWhy do you like Fetterman? What will you take in action?Quote: QuadrigaBill Maher derides both parties:
"The Republicans are putting up a slate of election-deniers, crackpots, and crooks, and the Democrats have a guy who recently died of a stroke.
We’re not making fun, but if you saw that debate in Pennsylvania, Dr. Oz against John Fetterman — he did recently have a stroke, Fetterman, and he is still a little shaky. Neurologists call that condition ‘Herschel Walker.’"
Anyway, this is a gambling message board. Oz is a slight favorite over Fetterman in the Pennsylvania Senate race. If anyone wants to bet on Oz I'll take it at even odds. I don't have much credibility here, but if I lose I can pay by Vemo, PayPal or CashApp.
If the loser doesn't pay within two weeks, they agree to be barred from the forum until the bet is settled.
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One of the biggest offshore betting exchange now has Fetterman as a underdog at 2.5 decimal odds, which is +150 in the U.S. And the takeback on OZ is 1.5, which is -150. How about my $100.00 (for Fetterman) against your $115.00 (Oz). You're still booking me in this scenario. That's my final offer.
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Quote: ChumpChangeGrumblings on the twitter say Tesla will be boycotted by the left, and Elon will get his fans to boycott all the advertisers who are boycotting twitter.
Free market capitalism at work!!
I don't know about a Tesla boycott, but the only person I know who owns one is a Conservative.
Quote:In other news, 50% of restaurants can't pay the rent, and car dealers are left holding cars they overpaid for and they aren't selling at auction anymore. Car dealers days are numbered.
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That was a quick turnaround.... Dealerships were on fire earlier this year. It was almost impossible to buy anything new, and used cars were flying out the door.
Here’s a breakdown of the shifts we might see as votes are counted in six battleground states
It cannot be emphasized enough how messy the counting in PA is going to be.
"Trump 'wants to announce' a 2024 bid tonight 'to take credit' for Republicans’ expected victory in the midterms tomorrow, a Trumpworld source told me 'But there are people asking him to hold back,'
Headline: 'They're looking for every advantage': GOP sues to block thousands of ballots in key states
https://www.rawstory.com/they-re-looking-for-every-advantage-gop-sues-to-block-thousands-of-ballots-in-key-states/
Pa. Department of State request on mail ballots alarms and angers county officials ｜ The Philadelphia Inquirer https://nordot.app/962423809485864960?c=592622757532812385
DOJ to deploy poll monitors to 64 jurisdictions across 24 states - Raw Story
https://www.rawstory.com/justice-department-voting/
'Intolerable': Judge rebukes Michigan GOP candidate's efforts to throw out ballots - Raw Story
https://www.rawstory.com/kristina-karamo-2658610912/
Michigan's Democrat AG suggests she might flee the state over threats and intimidation from right-wing extremists - Raw Story -
https://www.rawstory.com/michigan-s-democrat-ag-says-she-might-flee-the-state-over-threats-and-intimidation-from-right-wing-extremists/
Nikki Haley calls for US to ‘deport’ Democratic Senator Raphael Warnock - Raw Story -
https://www.rawstory.com/nikki-haley-calls-for-us-to-deport-democratic-senator-raphael-warnock/
'Putin's chef' boasts about US election interference: 'Carefully, accurately, surgically and in our own way' - Raw Story -
https://www.rawstory.com/yevgeny-prigozhin/
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I think twitter's Fail Whale will return full time before next years' Congress convenes.
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I never listen to Sirius Radio. I see the FCC doesn't work there.
'Are you kidding me?' Howard Stern blasts Herschel Walker in profanity-filled rant - Raw Story -
https://www.rawstory.com/are-you-kidding-me-howard-stern-blasts-herschel-walker-in-profanity-filled-rant/
Quote: ChumpChangeHeadline: Trump’s allies are trying to convince him not to announce his 2024 bid tonight
"Trump 'wants to announce' a 2024 bid tonight 'to take credit' for Republicans’ expected victory in the midterms tomorrow, a Trumpworld source told me 'But there are people asking him to hold back,'
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Conspiracy theories I've heard:
He'll do it on election night because he's a narcissist and can't stand all that attention not being on him.
He'll do it the day after the election because that is the earliest he could announce and not affect any election results.
He'll find out when the DOJ is going to indict him and do it the day before to make it look like they are coming after him because he's running for President.
Apparently there was some leak that said he's going to announce on the 10th.
I've also heard the 14th.
https://www.rawstory.com/hurricane-nicole-florida/
It's the day before Gov. Ron DeSantis' (R-FL) election, and he's ordering an emergency in 34 counties due to the incoming storm, named Nicole. He also warned the full group of 67 counties to stay vigilant and aware of where the storm was headed and its severity.
As the hurricane watch was issued, the east coast of Florida and meteorologists are watching to see if the storm takes a turn to hit Florida dead on as a hurricane. Thus far, they're anticipating that Nicole will hit as a Category 1 storm, a far cry from the massive Category 4 that Hurricane Ian made landfall on the state in September.
Quote:Prigozhin said that Russia has interfered, is interfering and will continue to interfere in the US democratic process, in response to a journalist’s question about Russia potentially meddling in US congressional elections on Tuesday.
“I will answer you very subtly, and delicately and I apologize, I will allow a certain ambiguity. Gentlemen, we interfered, we interfere and we will interfere,” Prigozhin said.
Quote:It was not immediately clear how serious Prigozhin was being in his comments, which appeared to have been made somewhat sarcastically. But the US has sanctioned Prigozhin for funding the Internet Research Agency, a notorious Russian troll farm accused of meddling in several recent US elections. Prigozhin was also charged with conspiracy to defraud the United States in 2018 by special counsel Robert Mueller in relation to the alleged election meddling.
Source
Quote: ams288I certainly hope the rumors are true and Donny announces his 2024 candidacy tonight - will help boost turnout for the Dems tomorrow.
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I wonder if Senator Walker will be his running back? I mean running mate….
I just found out that Palin is running for the House seat that Alaska has.. and is a decided UNDERDOG to her relatively cute Democrat opponent. Do you realize how bad a candidate you have to be as a Republican to lose a statewide election in Alaska?
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'Marked for elimination': Wisconsin man arrested after threatening to kill Gov. Tony Evers - Raw Story -
https://www.rawstory.com/tony-evers-wisconsin-threats/
Let me add that Wisconsin is looking at a veto-proof GOP legislature after this election so it will become a dictatorship GOP-style the likes of which we haven't seen since Trump.
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Wu-Tang is for the Children on Twitter: "Beer can thrown at Ted Cruz at the Astros parade today 🤣…they sure love him in his hometown https://t.co/UcnerhOQEJ" / Twitter https://twitter.com/WUTangKids/status/1589724203275948033
Ted Cruz gets relentless boos in his parade.
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7590/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-Oregon-gubernatorial-election
No significant changes in Senate races. AZ continues to look like it will be the closest. GOP will likely win control of the Senate even they lose AZ.
Quote: ChumpChangePalin was horrible in 2008. It's turned into reality TV since.
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Agreed. I'm convinced she cost McCain the election.
Quote: TigerWuQuote: ChumpChangePalin was horrible in 2008. It's turned into reality TV since.
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Agreed. I'm convinced she cost McCain the election.
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Seriously? John McCain could not have beat Barack Obama in 2008 if he had Jesus as his running mate. Barack Obama say what you want about him was one of the best campaigners we've ever had. He had charisma up the wazoo and John McCain was an asshat RINO. Sarah Palin had nothing to do with anything.
Quote: TigerWuAgreed. I'm convinced she cost McCain the election.
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I think he would have lost by more with a boring safe VP.
I know I can't be the only one.
Quote: WizardQuote: TigerWuAgreed. I'm convinced she cost McCain the election.
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I think he would have lost by more with a boring safe VP.
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I watch a lot of lacrosse. This scenario is common: team down by 4 goals with like 2:30 to go. Many many teams adopt a strategy that if it works, they lose by 2 goals. Maryland did this in the finals a few years ago. It’s an awful strategy because they guarantee a loss. What they should be doing is playing wildly. Take shots from far away. Go for home run passes inside. Never take a long time for shots. Just go wild and hope you catch the goalie and face off players sleeping. But teams hate to do it. They stick with their standard plays that are designed to get one shot after 60-80 seconds.
I believe McCain’s best chance to win was to go big and bold on the VP choice. It was the one potential game changer he had. There are reasons why the party may prefer for him to have a close-ish loss (because they’re looking to the future) but for him looking at just that election and knowing he won’t get another chance if he lost, he maximized his chance of winning by picking bold and rolling the dice. Whether he got 268 EC votes or 50, he would still lose.
Voter behavior often makes no sense when interpreted from the lens of policy preferences. Montana consistently re-elects a Republican and a Democrat Senator. Each Senator officially represents the same constituents but their votes represent entirely different ideological constituencies.
Quote: JackSpadeElectability is counterintuitive. Trump proved to be more electable than McCain or Romney.link to original post
The only person Trump was more electable than was Hillary Clinton.
Quote: TigerWuI'll just say I was going to vote for McCain until he picked Palin, so he for sure lost my vote.
I know I can't be the only one.
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I actually voted for Barack Obama in 2008 just to defeat asshat John McCain, I could not stand that guy he was a republican in name only. He sold his party down the river every chance he got. And the Democrats knew it, look what they did when he died it was like a president died. Screw John McCain good riddance. I don't care that he was a war hero, that doesn't make up for what he did afterwards.
Quote: ams288Quote: JackSpadeElectability is counterintuitive. Trump proved to be more electable than McCain or Romney.link to original post
The only person Trump was more electable than was Hillary Clinton.
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Well, he was also more electable than Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, John Kasich, and a host of others the pundits said were more likely to win the GOP nomination.
Quote: JackSpadeQuote: ams288Quote: JackSpadeElectability is counterintuitive. Trump proved to be more electable than McCain or Romney.link to original post
The only person Trump was more electable than was Hillary Clinton.
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Well, he was also more electable than Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, John Kasich, and a host of others the pundits said were more likely to win the GOP nomination.
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Yeah, but we don't have video of any of them collapsing at an event and being thrown bodily into the back of a van. I bet I watched that video 40 times, laughing every time. I'm laughing just thinking about it.
Quote: ams288The only person Trump was more electable than was Hillary Clinton.
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May I remind you Hillary won the popular vote in 2016.
Quote: JackSpadeQuote: ams288Quote: JackSpadeElectability is counterintuitive. Trump proved to be more electable than McCain or Romney.link to original post
The only person Trump was more electable than was Hillary Clinton.
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Well, he was also more electable than Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, John Kasich, and a host of others the pundits said were more likely to win the GOP nomination.
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We will never know for certain, but I suspect any one of those candidates you mentioned would have won against Hillary in 2016 by a larger margin than Donny did. They may even have won the popular vote.
Ill assume no bet since you haven't responded.Quote: AxelWolfIf we can exchange via Crypto. You have a deal.Quote: QuadrigaQuote: AxelWolfWhy do you like Fetterman? What will you take in action?Quote: QuadrigaBill Maher derides both parties:
"The Republicans are putting up a slate of election-deniers, crackpots, and crooks, and the Democrats have a guy who recently died of a stroke.
We’re not making fun, but if you saw that debate in Pennsylvania, Dr. Oz against John Fetterman — he did recently have a stroke, Fetterman, and he is still a little shaky. Neurologists call that condition ‘Herschel Walker.’"
Anyway, this is a gambling message board. Oz is a slight favorite over Fetterman in the Pennsylvania Senate race. If anyone wants to bet on Oz I'll take it at even odds. I don't have much credibility here, but if I lose I can pay by Vemo, PayPal or CashApp.
If the loser doesn't pay within two weeks, they agree to be barred from the forum until the bet is settled.
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One of the biggest offshore betting exchange now has Fetterman as a underdog at 2.5 decimal odds, which is +150 in the U.S. And the takeback on OZ is 1.5, which is -150. How about my $100.00 (for Fetterman) against your $115.00 (Oz). You're still booking me in this scenario. That's my fi nal offer.
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Quote: SOOPOODraftKings has free entry $20k election pick’em contest. 20 races. 12 or so locks. For Georgia, you could pick ‘run off’ as a choice, which I did. I think you will need 20/20 to win, and you won’t be alone.
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I would have had a perfect score in the Fanduel contest last election had PA gone to Trump…. I’ll try DK now.
Bovada gave me a 50% bonus and 20 slot machine spins to deposit. I then won and cashed out $100 from the slots.
Trump says DeSantis could 'hurt himself very badly' with 2024 White House bid - Raw Story -
https://www.rawstory.com/desanctimonious-trump-desantis/
Trump serves Election Day notice to Mitch McConnell - Raw Story -
https://www.rawstory.com/donald-trump-mitch-mcconnell-2658619086/?utm_source=push_notifications
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Small election glitches today will be used as justification for violence tomorrow: Former national security official - Raw Story -
https://www.rawstory.com/election-violence-2022/
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With 1% of the vote in, cable TV news is calling races already. OMG!
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Mar-a-Lago is in the line of incoming Tropical Storm Nicole — and they're being told to evacuate.
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Huckabee wins Arkansas Governorship. Early signs of states seceding from the union.
Quote: AxelWolfIll assume no bet since you haven't responded.Quote: AxelWolfIf we can exchange via Crypto. You have a deal.Quote: QuadrigaQuote: AxelWolfWhy do you like Fetterman? What will you take in action?Quote: QuadrigaBill Maher derides both parties:
"The Republicans are putting up a slate of election-deniers, crackpots, and crooks, and the Democrats have a guy who recently died of a stroke.
We’re not making fun, but if you saw that debate in Pennsylvania, Dr. Oz against John Fetterman — he did recently have a stroke, Fetterman, and he is still a little shaky. Neurologists call that condition ‘Herschel Walker.’"
Anyway, this is a gambling message board. Oz is a slight favorite over Fetterman in the Pennsylvania Senate race. If anyone wants to bet on Oz I'll take it at even odds. I don't have much credibility here, but if I lose I can pay by Vemo, PayPal or CashApp.
If the loser doesn't pay within two weeks, they agree to be barred from the forum until the bet is settled.
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One of the biggest offshore betting exchange now has Fetterman as a underdog at 2.5 decimal odds, which is +150 in the U.S. And the takeback on OZ is 1.5, which is -150. How about my $100.00 (for Fetterman) against your $115.00 (Oz). You're still booking me in this scenario. That's my fi nal offer.
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Sorry for the no response. I never made out with Crypto....when I ran away from his apartment on a horrible date.
Many other examples.
Rubio also destroyed Val Demings.
Florida is now officially a Red State.
Quote: JackSpadeRed wave cancelled.
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It’s a red trickle.
Looks like Arizona and Pennsylvania are going Blue for the Senate. Predictit has most likely result as 50-50 Senate.
Looks like Walker beatsWarnock but not by enough to avoid a run off.
If it is just the 50th seat it is only of mild importance. Imagine if it is 50-49 Repubs leading up to that run off! How many billions of dollars will be spent between now and the vote on that single election?
Of course all my blather above can change depending on who has counted which eAtly votes, which counties have reported, etc…
Quote: SOOPOOI’m watching DeSantis’ GREAT acceptance speech. If Trump didn’t exist, or if he actually cared about America and the Republican Party, DeSantis would wipe the floor with ANY Democrat candidate in 2024.
Rubio also destroyed Val Demings.
Florida is now officially a Red State.
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Also a great night for Brian Kemp in Georgia. He directly defied Trump over election results and actually improved his political standing despite Trump's attempt to primary him out of office. He knows how to beat Trump, whereas Desantis hasn't yet shown that he does.
Quote: FinsRuleOne bet for me. +360 Dems Senate, R House.
Bovada gave me a 50% bonus and 20 slot machine spins to deposit. I then won and cashed out $100 from the slots.
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That bet is looking very very good right now.
Quote: FinsRuleQuote: FinsRuleOne bet for me. +360 Dems Senate, R House.
Bovada gave me a 50% bonus and 20 slot machine spins to deposit. I then won and cashed out $100 from the slots.
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That bet is looking very very good right now.
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Not looking very good this morning. Looks likely to me to be a tie in the Senate.
Quote: DRichQuote: FinsRuleQuote: FinsRuleOne bet for me. +360 Dems Senate, R House.
Bovada gave me a 50% bonus and 20 slot machine spins to deposit. I then won and cashed out $100 from the slots.
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That bet is looking very very good right now.
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Not looking very good this morning. Looks likely to me to be a tie in the Senate.
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I can deal with that. As long as the House is Republican that REQUIRES that both sides work together. It prevents one party from going overboard, which I believe the Dems have done for the past two years. Assuming Arizona and Pennsylvania are Dem, and Nevada and Wisconsin Repub, Does that make it 59-49 Dem, with Georgia runoff not as important as many thought it would be?
Quote: DRichQuote: FinsRuleQuote: FinsRuleOne bet for me. +360 Dems Senate, R House.
Bovada gave me a 50% bonus and 20 slot machine spins to deposit. I then won and cashed out $100 from the slots.
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That bet is looking very very good right now.
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Not looking very good this morning. Looks likely to me to be a tie in the Senate.
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A tie in the Senate means Dems control the Senate because Kamala Harris breaks the ties.
Quote: ams288Quote: DRichQuote: FinsRuleQuote: FinsRuleOne bet for me. +360 Dems Senate, R House.
Bovada gave me a 50% bonus and 20 slot machine spins to deposit. I then won and cashed out $100 from the slots.
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That bet is looking very very good right now.
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Not looking very good this morning. Looks likely to me to be a tie in the Senate.
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A tie in the Senate means Dems control the Senate because Kamala Harris breaks the ties.
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Correct. On Predictit, they specifically state that 50-50 is a win for anyone betting on Democrat control of the Senate.
Are there any Senators or Senator elects, that if they pass on before 2023, that a person of the other party could be chosen as Senator? If so, I’d hope that person would get security akin to the President. Like if Manchin dies, does governor of West Virginia just appoint someone?
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: ams288Quote: DRichQuote: FinsRuleQuote: FinsRuleOne bet for me. +360 Dems Senate, R House.
Bovada gave me a 50% bonus and 20 slot machine spins to deposit. I then won and cashed out $100 from the slots.
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That bet is looking very very good right now.
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Not looking very good this morning. Looks likely to me to be a tie in the Senate.
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A tie in the Senate means Dems control the Senate because Kamala Harris breaks the ties.
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Correct. On Predictit, they specifically state that 50-50 is a win for anyone betting on Democrat control of the Senate.
Are there any Senators or Senator elects, that if they pass on before 2023, that a person of the other party could be chosen as Senator? If so, I’d hope that person would get security akin to the President. Like if Manchin dies, does governor of West Virginia just appoint someone?
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The exact rules vary by state.
For instance, in West Virginia, the Governor must replace a Senator with someone of the same political party as the departed Senator.
Quote: SOOPOOAre there any Senators or Senator elects, that if they pass on before 2023, that a person of the other party could be chosen as Senator? If so, I’d hope that person would get security akin to the President. Like if Manchin dies, does governor of West Virginia just appoint someone?
That depends on the state. Each state has a different process for handling that.
Like I believe KY passed a law so their Dem Governor wouldn’t be able to appoint a Dem in case Mitch croaks.
I was unaware that Sarah Hucksbee Sanders was running for anything. Apparently she will be the next governor of Arkansas.
RealClearPolitics is TRASH.
I’ve known for a while that they had a huge GOP-bent. But it should be clear to everyone now.
It was a disappointing night for republicans who watched their red wave both start and end in Florida.
It was a bad night for pollsters who usually underestimate right-wing support but this time managed to overestimate it.
It was a ho-hum night for viewers who watched the national maps slowly congeal into the same ol' red and blue states take up their same ol' red and blue stances and sing their same ol' red and blue songs.
