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Paigowdan
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February 2nd, 2012 at 7:23:46 AM permalink
Quote: zippyboy

Quote: Paigowdan

Now that [the cards] might be a problem, - ...you know what the deal is, what the rules are, and playing dumb won't help you.


Apparently playing smart will get me kicked out.


Then it's not so smart, now is it?
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P90
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February 2nd, 2012 at 7:24:53 AM permalink
Quote: Paigowdan

1. How much the education cost you, (how much you failed to make or retire on by unsuccessfully trying to take it from the casinos, what your REAL income is, etc.)


People play in their spare time, not skipping work for it. So if you are going to play blackjack, you might as well count as you go.

Should you get backed off, big loss. What's the point in playing if you don't have positive expectation anyway?
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Paigowdan
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February 2nd, 2012 at 7:30:01 AM permalink
Quote: P90

People play in their spare time, not skipping work for it. So if you are going to play blackjack, you might as well count as you go.

Should you get backed off, big loss. What's the point in playing if you don't have positive expectation anyway?


Which is opposed to realistic expectations. Realistic expectations are highly underrated.
No where can you have positive expectations when it is "pay to play" with everything, everywhere.
The law of economics state that free lunch loopholes get killed off. This occurred a while ago.
If you demand a positive EV for the honor of playing - then who in his right mind is going to play with you?

You demand a positive EV to play - but then say your opponent has some nerve (and no right) - and is the bad guy - for needing the very same thing you demand - in order to offer you the game in the very first place.
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P90
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February 2nd, 2012 at 7:49:52 AM permalink
Quote: Paigowdan

Which is opposed to realistic expectations. Realistic expectations are highly underrated.
No where can you have positive expectations when it is "pay to play" with everything, everywhere.


I'm far away from living off poker, and with the competition getting stronger, might never get there; not that I necessarily want my whole life to be about thirteen ranks and four suits. But most every time I play, do I have a solid positive expectation, be it collecting blinds in cash games or long odds in a tourney.

Quote: Paigowdan

If you play demanding a positive EV for the honor - then who's gonna play with you?

You'd be surprised. Or not. I mean, you, for one, are ready to drain your chips into -EV games.


Quote: Paigowdan

The law of economics state that free lunch loopholes get killed off. This occurred a while ago.


Any professional AP relies on a lot of things besides and above counting. If he sees a table betting wild, he might join the fun and spreads to the count. But if there is a flashing dealer on another table, he goes there and makes just enough of his borderline plays right. If he spots a vulnerable shuffle, he sits down and plays on that. If he notices a 2/5 table jammed with tourists, he squeezes in and picks up a stack or two. If he sees a 3CP dealer flashing, or just plain any other game he can get a profit on, he goes there. If the floor is dead, he can just grind a 100%+ VP machine to pass the time.

Counting is the most amateurish of advantage plays, VP aside. Actually, counting mostly is an amateur play these days, even though any self-respecting AP should know it for when it's the only play available.
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Paigowdan
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February 2nd, 2012 at 8:12:20 AM permalink
Quote: P90

Quote: PGD

Which is opposed to realistic expectations. Realistic expectations are highly underrated.
No where can you have positive expectations when it is "pay to play" with everything, everywhere.

I'm far away from living off poker, and with the competition getting stronger, might never get there; not that I necessarily want my whole life to be about thirteen ranks and four suits. But most every time I play, do I have a solid positive expectation, be it collecting blinds in cash games or long odds in a tourney.


Expecting a positive EV from a poker pool or a paramutuel is reasonable even after the rake. But assuming a tight and sharp field, a negative EV is the norm.
Expecting to demand a positive EV from a house-banked game is unreasonable, and cannot be expected or demanded.

Quote: P90

Quote: PGD

If you play demanding a positive EV for the honor - then who's gonna play with you?

You'd be surprised. Or not. I mean, you, for one, are ready to drain your chips into -EV games.


You forget:
1. I am a casino employee. My salary comes from the house edge. I make money from it, and I don't lose it back. Like everyone else, I too have phone bills and car payments. I certainly don't gamble in excess of my income, nor do I spend anywhere on anything in excess of my income. That's my wife's job.
2. I am a game designer with a lot of games out. Again, I make money from its house edge, like a screen writer makes money that originally came from box office receipts, not the other way around. So do all successful game designers, screen writers, etc. So we would view scamming the house as theft of services from our POV, a POV not commonly shared, because casino operators are viewed as "the big bad Darth Vader who is a lying, cheating, no good sack of stinking sh]t, - who must be beaten to death with metal pipes, in a dark alleyway, etc." and not as businesses filled with people providing gaming services in good faith and are trying to make a living, of all things.

Quote: P90

Quote: PGD


The law of economics state that free lunch loopholes get killed off. This occurred a while ago [for card counting, as it is a well known AP].


Any professional AP relies on a lot of things besides and above counting. If he sees a table betting wild, he might join the fun and spreads to the count. But if there is a flashing dealer on another table, he goes there and makes just enough of his borderline plays right. If he spots a vulnerable shuffle, he sits down and plays on that. If he notices a 2/5 table jammed with tourists, he squeezes in and picks up a stack or two. If he sees a 3CP dealer flashing, or just plain any other game he can get a profit on, he goes there. If the floor is dead, he can just grind a 100%+ VP machine to pass the time.


This is all fine if you're playing with poker players in a pool or pot where a rake successfully occurs, or on promo VP games.
If a dealer is flashing on a house-banked game, you can be backed off, get a dealer fired without giving a damn, get reasonably accused of being in collusion, and the like. None of this is a positive thing or ethical, - and you can indeed justify it by taking the position of "I don't give a R.As." A lot of people do. We see it.

Quote: P90

Counting is the most amateurish of advantage plays, VP aside.


Yes, indeed. It has long since gotten embarrassing and cloying. It's like so 80's, dude.
Quote: P90

Actually, counting mostly is an amateur play these days, even though any self-respecting AP should know it for when it's the only play available.


I feel it should be studied and known, but not realistically practiced anymore. The risks and returns are dismal, and all it takes is one time to get caught and get known. Technology not only has surveillance read cards and compute play with the counter, but biometric I.D.'s and modern communications gets the word out instantaneously.
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thecesspit
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February 2nd, 2012 at 8:55:11 AM permalink
Without cut and pasting another long rant :

I ONLY care about your position that using my memory in ONE place in the casino is some how unethical or cheating. That's my point, has always been, and always is. No amount of distracting from this very core point matters, Dan. The casino can offer any game it wishes, and offer to who ever it wishes, in any manner it wishes, but to complain that Blackjack players who use their memory is "unethical" or beforehand cheating is not logically maintainable.

That's it. Simple.

And with that, I should stop posting here.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
Paigowdan
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February 2nd, 2012 at 9:01:40 AM permalink
Quote: thecesspit

Without cut and pasting another long rant :

I ONLY care about your position that using my memory in ONE place in the casino is some how unethical or cheating. That's my point, has always been, and always is. No amount of distracting from this very core point matters, Dan. The casino can offer any game it wishes, and offer to who ever it wishes, in any manner it wishes, but to complain that Blackjack players who use their memory is "unethical" or beforehand cheating is not logically maintainable.

That's it. Simple.

And with that, I should stop posting here.


Very Fine. We've shared all our view points. Subscribe to whatever you want to. How well it works for you, do track and notice. Use memory there, too.
Beware of all enterprises that require new clothes - Henry David Thoreau. Like Dealers' uniforms - Dan.
P90
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February 2nd, 2012 at 9:11:54 AM permalink
Quote: Paigowdan

Expecting a positive EV from a poker pool or a paramutuel is reasonable even after the rake. But assuming a tight and sharp field, a negative EV is the norm.

That's why you don't assume, you evaluate, and find situations that are +EV. Then you play.

Quote: Paigowdan

Expecting to demand a positive EV from a house-banked game is unreasonable, and cannot be expected or demanded.

No, it can not. Not expected and not demanded. But it can be taken.

Quote: Paigowdan

This is all fine if you're playing with poker players in a pool or pot where a rake successfully occurs, or on promo VP games.


Oh. So if a rake doesn't occur (no flop, no drop), then it's not fine?

It's really curious how people make the distinction that it's OK when 5 people lose* and 1 wins around a poker table, but not OK when 5 players lose and 1 wins around a blackjack table. What's the difference? Money goes in, less money goes out, the house is still at a net win.

So tell me the specific distinction that makes it fine in one game, but not in the other. "House money" is not actually house money; it's players' money that the house has taken from them. How come it's OK to take their money directly, but not OK if it's mediated via the house?


Quote: Paigowdan

If a dealer is flashing on a house-banked game, you can be backed off, get a dealer fired without giving a damn, get reasonably accused of being in collusion, and the like.

Yes, you can. But to prove collusion in court they would need more than an accusation. So you're pretty safe here.

If the dealer is fired for flashing, you can blame his boss for that, you can blame the dealer himself, you can blame whoever and whatever, but hardly a player taking advantage of it - I mean, the whole point of firing dealers for flashing is that players will take advantage otherwise.

However, I'm not arguing that hole-carding is ethical. It goes to your other argument, that advantage play is useless because counters are so easily spotted; but it's not, because professional APs have many other tools at their disposal, and they use what is best at the moment.


Quote: Paigowdan

The risks and returns are dismal

What risks?

As long as you aren't actually cheating (as defined by law, not preferences), all a casino can do is ban you from a game that, without advantage play, was -EV and thus of no value to you in the first place. Your initial stake is zero.


*Talking in terms of expected loss and win, not random luck.
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Ibeatyouraces
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February 2nd, 2012 at 9:16:47 AM permalink
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boymimbo
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February 2nd, 2012 at 9:40:26 AM permalink
So what I am hearing is that there are positive plays at the casino:

- 100+% VP - but making money on this is so slow that it's not really worth it.
- Counting in Blackjack - vulnerable to getting caught.
- Low limit poker - pick off tourists
- Flashing dealers - see the hole card (all games).

None of these I would consider cheating. These are all good advantage plays and don't violate gaming's statutes or even the casino's posted rules.

Yes, all of these drive up costs. But by how much? All businesses are somewhat vulnerable to this. Retail stores are subject to theft, but they don't put markers on every item as it isn't worth it for catch someone for stealing a pen. Golf courses aren't fenced... theoretically, you could fine the 3rd hole and just golf 16 holes for free. Movie theaters don't catch you for catching a 2nd show for free. All clothing stores are subject to a "use and return" policy where you buy an item, use it for its intended purpose, and return it. Employees steal pens, paper, and office supplies for their home. Employees surf the internet during working hours.

My point is that casinos can't and shouldn't stop everyone for minor transgressions. Most counters are bad counters. 100%+ in VP is a loss leader. Flashing cards is dealer error and needs to be corrected with the dealer (but is the same as a retail scanner who fails to scan something or charges the incorrect amount).

I mean, an accountant might argue that it might be in the casinos' best interests to only pay dealers for the time they are on the floor rather than have to pay for breaks, or to hire illegal immigraants to deal but only pay them $1 / hour. The thing is that customer service would suffer, and hiring illegal immigrants is, well, illegal.

Casinos have to think about customer service. If you back off every counter, good or bad, the casino loses that customer and their potential stockpile of money. If the casino discovers that one of its dealer has been flashing, the solution is not to chase the player back for money. If the slot machine or VP+ machine is set to 100+ percent inadvetently, the casino should not ask the player back for the money due to an errant machine. All of this is customer service.
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MathExtremist
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February 2nd, 2012 at 9:48:23 AM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

Dan can call me whatever he wishes and it bothers me none. I dont blame him. I dont expect OR demand +EV, we just find it and exploit it legally without collusion. I dont complain if the game is fixed or I'm told to leave. As Dan said, its just business.


This is the bit I'm confused about. Is it really "just business"? To me, it seems that someone with the aptitude to support themselves with casino advantage play would have a much higher revenue potential (and virtually no bankroll risk) at any number of quantitatively-inclined jobs. And the ancillary benefits -- health insurance, standard working schedule, a collaborative work environment, and actually producing something -- are all absent from casino advantage play.

So is it really just business, or do you value the non-economic thrill of beating the casino more than the corporate income and benefits you're giving up?
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
Ibeatyouraces
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February 2nd, 2012 at 10:21:13 AM permalink
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MathExtremist
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February 2nd, 2012 at 10:27:12 AM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

"Just business" just like any other job. And I consider this as my job. And just like any normal line of work, the potential to get "fired" or barred as in casino speak is always prevalent. I guess you would say I am self employed.


I'm self-employed too, but I make my money sitting at home reading and typing (I know, it sounds so glamorous). Do you find that you're making significantly more money as an AP than you would as an employee or consultant in a role where you direct your intelligence toward other ends? Or are you actually giving up lifetime earnings by plying your trade as an AP?
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
Ibeatyouraces
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February 2nd, 2012 at 10:27:32 AM permalink
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MathExtremist
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February 2nd, 2012 at 10:28:32 AM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

One other thing, most gamblers and even members of this board have no clue as to the amount of money that is being made by AP's.


That's my question. Just as a ballpark, how'd you do last year?
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
Ibeatyouraces
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February 2nd, 2012 at 10:49:35 AM permalink
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rdw4potus
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February 2nd, 2012 at 10:57:44 AM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

Thats personal business but will say this year alone I'm up over $15K. I'll say its better than most 9-5's. The key thing I like is no set hours and I am my own boss.



It's February 2nd. Are you saying that you're up $15k in the last 33 days?
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SOOPOO
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February 2nd, 2012 at 10:58:54 AM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

Thats personal business but will say this year alone I'm up over $15K. I'll say its better than most 9-5's. The key thing I like is no set hours and I am my own boss.



That's super! But i think that the tenor of this discussion would separate your winnings into poker winnings, which really shouldn't be considered AP winnings, and true AP winnings, which are beating the casino at a game the casino 'thinks' it has an edge, but actually does not. You may be skilled enough to be both... an AP and a skilled enough poker player to overcome the rake. I am more interested in your AP winnings... and how much you can earn per hour doing so.... over some reasonably long period of time ....
AcesAndEights
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February 2nd, 2012 at 11:01:57 AM permalink
Quote: rdw4potus

It's February 2nd. Are you saying that you're up $15k in the last 33 days?


Not to put words in IBYA's mouth, but a 33 day sample size doesn't mean much for most advantage plays. Everything (whether it's card counting, hole-carding, poker, etc.) has a huge variance. For a high-stakes pro, a 15K swing in one month is not out of the ordinary.

Hell, I'm up $1100 on the year only playing 9 sessions as an amateur/"hobbyist". Positive variance, yay! Negative variance, boo!
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Paigowdan
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February 2nd, 2012 at 12:47:04 PM permalink
Quote: P90

It's really curious how people make the distinction that it's OK when 5 people lose* and 1 wins around a poker table, but not OK when 5 players lose and 1 wins around a blackjack table. What's the difference? Money goes in, less money goes out, the house is still at a net win.


And you do not notice that the whole table wins in a way never possible in poker or paramutuels when:
1. The point is made, or
2. The dealer busts, or
3. The dealer gets a bad Pai Gow hand,
it's Pay The Table full pay
- which cannot occur with a pool or a pot or a paramutuel.

Quote: P90

So tell me the specific distinction that makes it fine in one game, but not in the other. "House money" is not actually house money; it's players' money that the house has taken from them. How come it's OK to take their money directly, but not OK if it's mediated via the house?


House money IS actually the house's money earned (you view it as taken), rightfully paid by the customers and owned by the house at that point, just as movie ticket receipts are house money (also rightfully earned by the house and owned by the house at that point, too). Theft of services can occur against that. A poker pot or paramutuel pool is customer money to be directly and expressly re-distributed to the customers, minus the vig or rake house fee. Theft of services cannot occur against poker pots or paramutuels when won by players, unless a player or worker skims the rake, too. For that matter, casinos never prosecute dealers who steal other dealers' tokes only - it was never owned by the house. Also, if you parlay a bet, it is not using the house's money, it is using YOUR OWN money. If a house deliberately defaults or skims on a payout win against you, it is cheating against you, and so the reverse is true if the player cheats on a house banked game: if you break the known house rules to skim the house's money (hole carding or card counting) it is viewed as theft of services and warrants a back off in both cases, and hole-carding is furthermore illegal if a player took action to obtain the card information; if the dealer flashed the card, then he did an improper play, and is fireable for collusion or theft or services by error - also costing 'the house' its money.


Quote: P90

Quote: PGD

If a dealer is flashing on a house-banked game, you can be backed off, get a dealer fired without giving a damn, get reasonably accused of being in collusion, and the like.


Yes, you can. But to prove collusion in court they would need more than an accusation. So you're pretty safe here.


Wow...."if I can be safe to get away with it legally, - it makes it ethical, too. WHAT a deal!" (I love this forum.) And in court, a dealer statement that "I was working the tables with P90," or surveillance tape showing willful player action can be presented, making it not safe.

Quote: P90

If the dealer is fired for flashing, you can blame his boss for that, you can blame the dealer himself, you can blame whoever and whatever, but hardly a player taking advantage of it - I mean, the whole point of firing dealers for flashing is that players will take advantage otherwise.


The dealer will always get punished or fired. No player gives a shit about this, we know this, and we hear this here loud and clear. The player may not get prosecuted, but can be backed off or denoted for involvement in this ("right to refuse service"), and can get prosecuted if he had taken action to hole card or work in collusion.

Quote: P90

However, I'm not arguing that hole-carding is ethical.


Good. An amazing advancement to witness here, and just when I thought my view of the human condition was quite low.....
Quote: P90

It goes to your other argument, that advantage play is useless because counters are so easily spotted; but it's not, because professional APs have many other tools at their disposal, and they use what is best at the moment.


Like what, wigs? There is no camoflaging of bets that are ascending and descending with the count.

Quote: P90

Quote: PGD

The risks and returns are dismal


What risks?


1. Getting backed off
2. getting 86-ed
3. getting blacklisted
4. Not making any money at it.
5. 40% penetration
6. Flat-betted
7. Shitty rules for everyone
8. Your time and effort is worth what it is worth.
Quote: P90

As long as you aren't actually cheating (as defined by law, not preferences), all a casino can do is ban you from a game that, without advantage play, was -EV and thus of no value to you in the first place. Your initial stake is zero.


You can case a bank for free, if you never hit it, your initial stake is also zero, with no observable rules broken.
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EvenBob
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February 2nd, 2012 at 12:50:54 PM permalink
Quote: Paigowdan

He thinks card counters are wasting their own time as well as his



Yet card counters abound in Vegas, some
of them are well known and they play with
impunity most of the time. The good ones
get away with it, the idiots get caught. As
I pointed out, a big Strip casino is lucky to
catch 5 counters a month, and those are
the wannabee morons.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
MathExtremist
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February 2nd, 2012 at 12:54:25 PM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

Thats personal business but will say this year alone I'm up over $15K. I'll say its better than most 9-5's. The key thing I like is no set hours and I am my own boss.


There's no question that earning even $10k/month (if you can do it consistently) is better than most 9-5's, but that's not my question. "Most" 9-5s involve no mathematical ability whatsoever. My question is whether someone like *you*, with the ability to employ your mind rapidly, quantitatively, and in high-pressure situations, would earn more in the kind of job that *you* could get than you currently earn in a casino as an AP.

Or let's look at this another way. Taking your single datapoint as a starting figure, let's assume you make $15k/month on average. I'm guessing you don't make 15k on average over the year, but let's say you do. That would be a hair over $85/hour as a contractor working 8 hour days. My question is whether you could earn more than $85/hour as a contractor -- or maybe $65/hour as an employee with benefits and stock plan. $65/hour is $130k/year. Can you get a job that pays $130k/year+benefits? If so, is it worth it to forgo that job and "work" in the casino environment?
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
MathExtremist
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February 2nd, 2012 at 12:56:33 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

That's super! But i think that the tenor of this discussion would separate your winnings into poker winnings, which really shouldn't be considered AP winnings, and true AP winnings, which are beating the casino at a game the casino 'thinks' it has an edge, but actually does not. You may be skilled enough to be both... an AP and a skilled enough poker player to overcome the rake. I am more interested in your AP winnings... and how much you can earn per hour doing so.... over some reasonably long period of time ....


I think that poker should absolutely be counted in profits if the player is a professional gambler in the truest sense. If it's truly a business, the only revenue question that matters is whether you walk out of the casino with more money than you walked in with.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
Paigowdan
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February 2nd, 2012 at 1:08:56 PM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

This is the bit I'm confused about. Is it really "just business"? To me, it seems that someone with the aptitude to support themselves with casino advantage play would have a much higher revenue potential (and virtually no bankroll risk) at any number of quantitatively-inclined jobs. And the ancillary benefits -- health insurance, standard working schedule, a collaborative work environment, and actually producing something -- are all absent from casino advantage play.

So is it really just business, or do you value the non-economic thrill of beating the casino more than the corporate income and benefits you're giving up?


I think it is utterly possible for a handful of people to make a living from AP and/or even casino cheating.
However:
1. It drives up costs for everyone without the practitioner giving a shit of that impact; it's "living on the dole" in a sense - others unwittingly pay one way or another, while justifying it in one's own mind as a righteous "David vs. Goliath or Robin hood" type of endeavor or existence. Has to be this way. Many feel (but not around here!!!) that it cannot avoid being parasitic. Justifying it by saying the casino or industry is parasitic doesn't excuse one's own behavior, as the same can be said for any industry, even law or medicine and what they charge when they have us over a barrel. This does not apply to poker pots or paramutel player pools, but to scamming house owned money.
2. NOT long lived. Free lunch loopholes eventually get plugged up. Even poker players get better or abandon financing others.
3. No benefits (paid health insurance, retirement plans)
4. Only a few can succeed; if many or all succeeded, there'd be no booty, as it gets "shared out" or depleted quickly.
5. Not an "Above Board" profession, yet this is appealing in a Rebel fashion.
6. Most go legit, and write books or advise on security, joining (ironically) what was once considered the Dark side. Frank Abagnale is an example. I went straight to the Dark Side, seeing this normal progression early on, and knowing ultimately it is not the dark side, but the legit and maligned business side of gaming.
7. For a very few, certainly around here, it actually matters HOW you walk out with the money, not just "that you do." The same applies when leaving a bank.
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EvenBob
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February 2nd, 2012 at 1:16:39 PM permalink
Quote: Paigowdan


7. For a very few, certainly around here, it actually matters HOW you walk out with the money, not just "that you do."



What do you mean 'how'.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
Paigowdan
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February 2nd, 2012 at 1:23:09 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

What do you mean 'how'.


You know how I mean it.
Did you cleanly win it, or did you break a house rule or apply some sort of an unapproved gaffe to get the money. A clean win is fine, and this is different than getting away with something.
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teddys
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February 2nd, 2012 at 1:46:34 PM permalink
Quote: AcesAndEights

Not to put words in IBYA's mouth, but a 33 day sample size doesn't mean much for most advantage plays. Everything (whether it's card counting, hole-carding, poker, etc.) has a huge variance. For a high-stakes pro, a 15K swing in one month is not out of the ordinary.

Not to put words in his mouth, either, but IBYA had some VERY positive variance early this year. Perhaps he may choose to share it with the board. If not, I won't give it away.

Let's just say it was Bob Dancer-level luck.
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P90
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February 2nd, 2012 at 1:47:19 PM permalink
Quote: Paigowdan

And you do not notice that the whole table wins in a way never possible in poker or paramutuels when:


Small picture. I don't care about small picture. Neither does the casino.
Only the bigger picture matters, let's say 1M+ hands. The same thing happens there: bad players lose, good players win, the house wins.


Quote: Paigowdan

Theft of services can occur against that.

Theft can not occur by an act that is not illegal.
If it was theft, counters would be doing time.
Don't say "theft" unless you would be ready to file a report, go to court, swear on the stand and testify to witnessing a crime.

Lobby your local elected representative if you believe an act not currently considered theft by the law to be such.
After a successful amendment of local, state or federal law please feel free say "theft" in regards to said act.


Quote: Paigowdan

A poker pot or paramutuel pool is customer money to be directly and expressly re-distributed to the customers, minus the vig or rake house fee. Theft of services cannot occur against poker pots or paramutuels


Yes, it can. Except it's not theft of services, but proper theft.
And if a player takes the pot with a card from his sleeve, it's cheating. Very much illegal, time to be done.

Quote: Paigowdan

For that matter, casinos never prosecute dealers who steal other dealers' tokes only - it was never owned by the house.


Bad. A mind-numbing disgrace to witness here. And just when I thought my view of the human condition -

- No, not really, it was this low all along. It's not news that the casino doesn't give a shit (sorry, "crap" is too weak a word here) if it's players' or employees' money that is being stolen, in an actual criminal act, anything as long as it's not casino's.

But it's refreshing to see you actually admit that.
About half a year ago I most likely "lost" my wallet in a small store. After discovering the loss, store personnel went out of their way to help me chase the "finder" retrieve it, I won't go into more detail than that. Good thing it didn't happen in a casino. Even though they have all the surveillance in the world.


Quote: Paigowdan

And in court, a dealer statement that "I was working the tables with P90,"


Sends him to prison, and he STILL loses his job and becomes unemployable as a dealer ever again.

Quote: Paigowdan

1. Getting backed off
2. getting 86-ed
3. getting blacklisted
4. Not making any money at it.
5. 40% penetration
6. Flat-betted
7. Shitty rules for everyone


You did not quantify the risks.
You did not, because there is no way to.
In monetary terms, all these 7 factors total to zero. The game and the casino in general is worthless to an AP is he is not obtaining positive expected value from it - you can't grieve about losing something worthless.

The eighth factor, time, is not a risk, because you spend time for any endeavor. And that is the only thing you could list.
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P90
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February 2nd, 2012 at 2:00:39 PM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

Can you get a job that pays $130k/year+benefits? If so, is it worth it to forgo that job and "work" in the casino environment?


I won't speak for him, but is such a question even worth asking in this economy?

Card-counting and other advantage plays don't take any special mathematical ability. All you need to do is add or to/from a number. Learning to do it, and it's something you have to learn on your own, indicates a degree of persistence and patience that puts you above burger-flipping level. But you don't need to be a genius to do it.
Probably indicates enough ability to go to college, get a degree presuming you don't bust out, get employed for 30-40k with unpaid overtime and student loans to pay off. It can be more, but doesn't have to be more.


Quote: Paigowdan

Did you cleanly win it...

I feel better about winnings derived from a game of skill than from a game of luck.

Just saying.
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SOOPOO
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February 2nd, 2012 at 2:04:25 PM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

I think that poker should absolutely be counted in profits if the player is a professional gambler in the truest sense. If it's truly a business, the only revenue question that matters is whether you walk out of the casino with more money than you walked in with.



A casino has no reason to back off a 'poker AP', as long as the casino is getting it's share, the rake. An AP who is beating BJ or VP is costing the casino money. For the player there might not be a difference, but for the casino there is a huge difference.
Keyser
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February 2nd, 2012 at 2:10:46 PM permalink
Question: Do you know what they call an AP that fails to make it professionally?

Answer: A casino risk consultant.
Paigowdan
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February 2nd, 2012 at 2:29:50 PM permalink
Quote: P90

Theft can not occur by an act that is not illegal.


Yes it can, if the courts view it that way.
What a court considers acceptable may be different than what a business considers acceptable.
Many McDonalds and other outlets stopped using individual ketchup and sugar packets, and replaced them with pump nozzel and bulk dispensors, so you can't take extra home. They did this precisely because they saw it as theft that cost them money, and yes, even thought that is legal.

Quote: P90

If it was theft, counters would be doing time.


No, not necessarily. Sometimes they just tell you, "you are not allowed to do that," back you off, AND they change the rules - and dispensors on you.

Quote: P90

Don't say "theft" unless you would be ready to file a report, go to court, swear on the stand and testify to witnessing a crime.


No. The other day I saw a lady stuff her purse with with Sweet & Low packets at a casino coffee shop right after counting down a deck on double-deck BJ. Thought it was normal behavior. She left up nine packets for the day. I didn't file a police report. Would you?

Quote: P90

Lobby your local elected representative if you believe an act not currently considered theft by the law to be such.


No.
I have better things to do with my time. You may do that if you want.
Quote: P90

After a successful amendment of local, state or federal law please feel free say "theft" in regards to said act.


No.
I call it as I see it. Besides, theft of services gotten away with wouldn't have a police report on it in any case, it is not a pre-requisite.

Quote: P90

And if a player takes the pot with a card from his sleeve, it's cheating. Very much illegal, time to be done.


I agree. And if he doesn't do time, or is considered a crime, it is still wrong.


Quote: P90

[on dealers stealing fellow dealers' tokes]
- No, not really, it was this low all along. It's not news that the casino doesn't give a shit (sorry, "crap" is too weak a word here) if it's players' or employees' money that is being stolen, in an actual criminal act, anything as long as it's not casino's.


Casinos do care, and they fire the cheating dealer. It's just that the LAW prevents them from filing criminal charges concerning dealer-to-dealer theft, as it was not their money stolen. They request that the dealers file charges, and most dealers don't have the time or the inclination to file charges to what amounts to less than $100 per dealer loss from the act.

Quote: P90

About half a year ago I most likely "lost" my wallet in a small store. After discovering the loss, store personnel went out of their way to help me chase the "finder" retrieve it, I won't go into more detail than that. Good thing it didn't happen in a casino. Even though they have all the surveillance in the world.


That's because a competent gambler or AP would get away with your wallet unemcumbered, as he is used to defeating casino surveillance to get the booty.


Quote: P90

Quote: PGD

And in court, a dealer statement that "I was working the tables with P90,"


Sends him to prison, and he STILL loses his job and becomes unemployable as a dealer ever again.


I hope so.


Quote: P90

[PGD lists downsides to card counting] You did not quantify the risks.
You did not, because there is no way to.
In monetary terms, all these 7 factors total to zero. The game and the casino in general is worthless to an AP is he is not obtaining positive expected value from it - you can't grieve about losing something worthless.
The eighth factor, time, is not a risk, because you spend time for any endeavor. And that is the only thing you could list.


Yes I did.
Time, money, and effectiveness of endeavor mean all.
When "time in life" is realized as a precious commodity, it means a real lot in what you do with it. Being a scammer of any sort, even arguably or legally, might not be the best use of life's time.
Beware of all enterprises that require new clothes - Henry David Thoreau. Like Dealers' uniforms - Dan.
EvenBob
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February 2nd, 2012 at 2:53:30 PM permalink
Quote: Paigowdan

A clean win is fine.



But not nearly as SWEET!
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
Paigowdan
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February 2nd, 2012 at 2:59:26 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

But not nearly as SWEET!


Ah......the extra juice in that is freaking NECTAR!
Beware of all enterprises that require new clothes - Henry David Thoreau. Like Dealers' uniforms - Dan.
EvenBob
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February 2nd, 2012 at 3:01:23 PM permalink
Quote: Paigowdan

. Being a scammer of any sort, even arguably or legally, might not be the best use of life's time.



I agree. Being an AP isn't scamming, its turning
a casino game into a game of skill and not blind
luck.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
Paigowdan
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February 2nd, 2012 at 3:08:10 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

I agree. Being an AP isn't scamming, its turning
a casino game into a game of skill and not blind
luck.


Just because a game is house banked doesn't mean it doesn't involve skill, and you can actually use skill without breaking any house rules. I say learn it, love it, and use it. Basic Strategy, Player hand setting ways in Pai Gow, optimum strategy in side games, and the like are ALL examples. Hole carding, card counting, and capping and pinching bets are not examples of approved optimal play, although they too increase player advantage.
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Doc
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February 2nd, 2012 at 3:14:01 PM permalink
Quote: Paigowdan

Hole carding, card counting, and capping and pinching bets are not examples of approved optimal play, although they too increase player advantage.

Once again, Dan groups common, legal, AP techniques right in there with criminal activities in order to paint them with the same condemning stroke.
EvenBob
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February 2nd, 2012 at 3:19:36 PM permalink
edited
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
Ibeatyouraces
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February 2nd, 2012 at 3:20:43 PM permalink
deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
Paigowdan
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February 2nd, 2012 at 3:20:59 PM permalink
I lump bird of a feather together IF they are:
1. All actions that are approved for play, - that you can do, or
2. All actions that are restricted by the house - that you may not do, be restricted from, and know it.

When the pit boss says "Sure, yes you can" versus "No, sir, please step away from the table" IS what counts inside a casino.
By the time you're arguing what the 7th Circuit courts says on AP is meaningless if you can't play that way. And if you try, you get backed off or 86-ed, and still can't reliably play that way.

it's what you can actually do, and are allowed to do, - not what you would like to do, inside a casino that counts.
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EvenBob
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February 2nd, 2012 at 3:27:30 PM permalink
Quote: Paigowdan

Just because a game is house banked doesn't mean it doesn't involve skill, and you can actually use skill without breaking any house rules. I say learn it, love it, and use it.



And these 'skills' will only delay losing to the
house edge, they won't win in the long run.
If a skill doesn't let you win more than lose,
its not a skill. Don't treat us like we're a bunch
of ploppies, Dan, some of us have been doing
this much longer than you.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
P90
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February 2nd, 2012 at 3:37:13 PM permalink
Quote: Paigowdan

Yes it can, if the courts view it that way.
What a court considers acceptable may be different than what a business considers acceptable.


And the difference is that what criminal court considers unacceptable is a crime. What only a business considers unacceptable is not.

Quote: Paigowdan

No. The other day I saw a lady stuff her purse with with Sweet & Low packets at a casino coffee shop right after counting down a deck on double-deck BJ. Thought it was normal behavior. She left up nine packets for the day. I didn't file a police report. Would you?


I would not normally file a report, but, if need be, I would be ready to. And I would be ready to testify to that in writing or even in court.

You, on the other hand, can not file a police report about theft upon noticing a card counter and state in court that you witnessed theft. If you did, you would be facing civil and criminal charges of filing a false report, libel, and finally perjury.


Quote: Paigowdan

That's because a competent gambler or AP would get away with your wallet unemcumbered, as he is used to defeating casino surveillance to get the booty.


Someone with the skill and the will to pickpocket and get away is going to be doing just that, not legal advantage plays. So you are wrong Dan, that would be a thief, not an AP.


Quote: Paigowdan

When "time in life" is realized as a precious commodity, it means a real lot in what you do with it.


If you get to do something you enjoy, remaining your own boss, and make a bit of cash (but usually more than a bit) in the process, it's hardly something to complain about.

So in the end "The risks and returns are dismal" turned out to merely mean that it might not be the best possible use of your time. A dismal risk indeed.
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Paigowdan
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February 2nd, 2012 at 3:56:43 PM permalink
Quote: P90

And the difference is that what criminal court considers unacceptable is a crime. What only a business considers unacceptable is not.


There is a difference between ethical status and legal status. Business needs are legit. What if you owned a business.


I would not normally file a report, but, if need be, I would be ready to. And I would be ready to testify to that in writing or even in court.

Quote: P90

You, on the other hand, can not file a police report about theft upon noticing a card counter and state in court that you witnessed theft. If you did, you would be facing civil and criminal charges of filing a false report, libel, and finally perjury.


Wouldn't file one in any case. Wouldn't care to or need to if I could. I Would be happy with a back off or 86 or black book entry, whatever mgt decides, and I see the pit crew and surveillance do this on a routine basis.


Quote: P90

If you get to do something you enjoy, remaining your own boss, and make a bit of cash (but usually more than a bit) in the process, it's hardly something to complain about.


I suppose from anyone's POV, if it feels good, do it.

Quote: P90

So in the end "The risks and returns are dismal" turned out to merely mean that it might not be the best possible use of your time. A dismal risk indeed.


We all assess for ourselves:
1. what works;
2. what seems to work (which can be different), and
3. what does not work.
What I see in people's actions and efforts is different in what they see and feel themselves. If something does work, but feels to work for that person, WTH.
I state my POV.
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1BB
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February 2nd, 2012 at 4:14:25 PM permalink
Congratulations, Dan on your 100th post in this thread on dice sliding.
Many people, especially ignorant people, want to punish you for speaking the truth. - Mahatma Ghandi
P90
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February 2nd, 2012 at 4:19:17 PM permalink
Quote: Paigowdan

There is a difference between ethical status and legal status. Business needs are legit. What if you owned a business.


Then my needs would be a big deal to me, but they wouldn't change the ethics one bit.
Indeed, what if my business was teaching Advantage Play courses and it was people like you that cost me business?

Quote: Paigowdan

Wouldn't file one in any case.


Really? Even if the counter was being annoying and dared you to file a police report against him, continually?
No, not even then, because you can't - it isn't a crime.

Quote: Paigowdan

If something does work, but feels to work for that person, WTH.


Well, kind of that. It does work for professional APs and they do feel that it works fine for them.
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Paigowdan
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February 2nd, 2012 at 4:43:12 PM permalink
Quote: P90

Quote: PGD

Would want to file a report on a counter

Really? Even if the counter was being annoying and dared you to file a police report against him, continually?No, not even then, because you can't - it isn't a crime.


I could care less about the legal status, as in terms of response to players, the security and the pit bosses handle all sorts of pricks as well as angels at the tables. I don't even give out comps. I just stop play and point out the problem, and let the pit boss and security handle it. If someone made a scene and was stupid enough to demand that a police report be filed, then they may file a public intoxication/disorderly conduct/public disturbance regardless of card counting. If card counting WAS involved, the extra steps/punishment of getting on a black list may be metered out, as the real smart AP keeps a REAL low profile and does nothing to attract attention. Such behavior is counter productive to the AP player, and dealers couldn't care less what the boss decides to do. A smart AP would want to keep a low profile, and hearing from you "Really? Even if the counter was being annoying and dared you to file a police report against him, continually?" doesn't seem like a smart move from a smart guy.

I mean, what if the AP decides to shoot himself in the foot to spite the pit boss, is he a genius for that?



Quote: P90

Quote: PDG

If something does work, but feels to work for that person, WTH.

Well, kind of that. It does work for professional APs and they do feel that it works fine for them.


yes, but I am personally convinved it's the picture of denial. When we see some schmuck getting backed off for ANY reason, people are not saying, "oh, look, it's James Bond" or something...I know a lot of people who gamble and work in the industry, and I see who makes money and who does not. The money is closely tracked, and if there's a problem, it gets addressed.
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Doc
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February 2nd, 2012 at 4:44:17 PM permalink
Quote: Paigowdan

... Wouldn't file one in any case. Wouldn't care to or need to if I could. I Would be happy with a back off or 86 or black book entry, whatever mgt decides, and I see the pit crew and surveillance do this on a routine basis.


Wait a sec -- by "black book" are your referring to the NGC List of Excluded Persons? Are you suggesting that a person's name can be added to that list strictly because they are counting cards? Or that one's name can be added just because they are basing their play on hole cards that have been exposed to them by an unskilled dealer?

I'm skeptical that this is true. I suspect it is just one more of your attempts to group legal AP play with criminal activity in spite of the obvious differences. Do you have any evidence to support the suggestion that counters are added to the black book if "mgt decides"? Any particular names on the list because of counting or hole carding (based on dealer errors)?
Paigowdan
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February 2nd, 2012 at 4:47:42 PM permalink
No - I'm not referring to the exluded persons list.
There are reports circulated on all AP/problem players that have NOTHING to do with that.
If you're on the NGC List of Excluded persons, you're already on Death Row; I'm talking about player tracking on a level way below that.
You don't have to be on America's Most Wanted hosted by Bill Walsh to be flagged at a lower level.
And this is not one of my "attempts to do this or that" - think what you want. I am telling you how it works, that there are many locally circulated lists of active problem players, much like a local 7-11 may list photos or captions of problem customers.
If somebody was caught card counting or hole carding, a bulletin may be circulated among local casinos with a description of the person without the National Guard being called in, - as a pit crew advisory. I don't decide who goes on these lists, no dealer does, but yes, there are people on these watch lists for a variety of reasons, often for card counting. For that matter, I have never even seen the Excluded Persons list that you talk about ever referenced. Maybe if Al Capone walked in or something....

Edit:
Quote: 1BB

Congratulations, Dan on your 100th post in this thread on dice sliding.


Thanks, but the congrats should be on 13,000+ hits, as that is the equivelant to the "table drop." Truly an 18-round match....
Beware of all enterprises that require new clothes - Henry David Thoreau. Like Dealers' uniforms - Dan.
EvenBob
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February 2nd, 2012 at 5:05:08 PM permalink
Quote: Paigowdan

I am telling you how it works, that there are many locally circulated lists of active problem players, much like a local 7-11 may list photos or captions of problem customers.



It doesn't matter, the skilled AP's still play
mostly anyplace they want. I was just
reading an interview with James Grosjean
yesterday. He said last summer he was
playing BJ on the Strip and cleaning up
hole carding for a couple hours, when a
pit lady came up and asked him if he was
James Grosjean. He played dumb and told
her he didn't need a players card, and she
went away. He played for another 15min
and left.

Grosjean has the equivelent of an 8x10 color
glossy hanging in every pit in Vegas and they
let him play for hours and didn't even positively
ID him enough to kick him out. Dan, you
can have all the secret rules you like, but if
you have dummies in the pit, what does it matter.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
P90
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February 2nd, 2012 at 6:04:12 PM permalink
Quote: Paigowdan

I could care less about the legal status


Then don't use terms that imply legal status.
Theft is a crime. Saying someone is a thief is a serious accusation. In fact, "cheating" at least can refer to infidelity, "theft" is unambiguous.


Quote: Paigowdan

yes, but I am personally convinved it's the picture of denial. When we see some schmuck getting backed off for ANY reason people are not saying, "oh, look, it's James Bond" or something...

Well, yes. You mostly only back off $10-$50 recreational players. The better ones don't get caught.

Quote: Paigowdan

The money is closely tracked, and if there's a problem, it gets addressed.


Tell it to the guy who took you like tourist donks for how many $millions by getting a 20% cashback on his losses, at multiple casinos while at that.
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