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Doc
Doc
Joined: Feb 27, 2010
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October 23rd, 2017 at 7:24:44 AM permalink
Quote: WatchMeWin

If everyone would just play the numbers and walk away after they hit 2 boxes.... the casinos would not be as profitable.... Hit n run is the way to walk away a winner.
....
Hit n Run is how to beat the casino. I dont care if you only make 50 bucks on the day... at least you didnt lose.


Why not just stay out of the place to begin with? Doesn't that absolutely guarantee that you don't lose to the casino?

Now if you really had a way to guarantee that a short session would leave you as a winner (not just avoid losing for a few moments), then it seems that the best course of action would indeed be to "hit n run" and parlay that into maybe a hundred sessions a day.
Francisco
Francisco
Joined: Dec 28, 2014
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October 23rd, 2017 at 5:39:02 PM permalink
Hit n run, thatís what I do.
Go to crap table, place $ 6 on 6 or 8, wait for 2 hits, run! Won $14.
Then next session, place $6 on 6 or 8, wait for 2 seven out, run! Lost $12.
Then, same procedure repeated again and again and again....
Then what happen?
I think I lost some money. All I know is that this game of crap is a negative expectation game and I will lose 1.52% in the long run.
But I have fun!!
billryan
billryan
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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October 23rd, 2017 at 6:22:26 PM permalink
Met this guy at the Long Horn a few months back, around 3AM. Just three people at the table and both of the other two were pretty chatty, but not overly so. Guy had a system that worked perfectly for him. He'd drive Uber until he'd cleared about $75, then log off. Cashed in with $25. Played $2, with an occasional $4 bet.
His goal was to win $41. He tipped a dollar ,took his $15 profit and called it a night. If he lost his $25, he'd go out and do an Uber or two and recoup his $25. He got his nightly BJ fix and also covered his daily nut.
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
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October 23rd, 2017 at 11:36:14 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

He'd drive Uber until he'd cleared about $75, then log off. Cashed in with $25. Played $2, with an occasional $4 bet.
His goal was to win $41. He tipped a dollar ,took his $15 profit and called it a night. If he lost his $25, he'd go out and do an Uber or two and recoup his $25.

Great lifestyle. Unfortunately for me the only one who would hire me to drive for Uber would be Lyft. And in my car, all my Uber runs would have to be mainly down hill.

I just wonder why his goal wasn't to go from a 25 dollar buy-in to 200 dollars in the rack?
billryan
billryan
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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October 23rd, 2017 at 11:45:39 PM permalink
Realistic goals are easily achieved. I'd guess a decent player can be $15 ahead on a $25 buy in at least half the sessions.
Multiple small winning sessions and no big losing sessions isn't a bad way to play. Especially when one immediately worked off his losses. I ran into him a few months later, passing him while going into the Dennys at Wild West and said hello but he didn't recognize me and gave me a curt Wassup.
Zcore13
Zcore13
Joined: Nov 30, 2009
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October 24th, 2017 at 10:44:52 AM permalink
Quote: WatchMeWin


Casinos hate players that hit and run and dont put alot of time in. Be one of those players!



No they don't. There's a million of you falsely thinking each short session ends the long term negative expectation when you leave.

Most employees just laugh when hearing or seeing this strategy.

You'll lose exactly the same in the long run playing 200 short "hit and run" sessions as playing one long session and earn less comps while doing it.

ZCore13
I am an employee of a Casino. Former Table Games Director,, current Pit Supervisor. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
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October 24th, 2017 at 11:47:55 AM permalink
Quote: Zcore13

falsely thinking each short session ends the long term negative expectation when you leave.

Just as the little white ball and the roulette wheel do not know that you have arrived or left, the dice don't know it either. Nor it seems does Lady Variance. However a series of short sessions is simply a way of wagering less money than betting on each roll.

Its sort of the opposite of what the casino does to the 'blueies': Yes, you can play Bingo but only with one hour breaks.
Steverinos
Steverinos
Joined: Jul 6, 2016
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October 24th, 2017 at 11:57:53 AM permalink
Quote: Zcore13

No they don't. There's a million of you falsely thinking each short session ends the long term negative expectation when you leave.

Most employees just laugh when hearing or seeing this strategy.

You'll lose exactly the same in the long run playing 200 short "hit and run" sessions as playing one long session and earn less comps while doing it.

ZCore13



Yup, there's no way around this inevitable and mathematical certainty.
Mission146
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
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Thanks for this post from:
OnceDear
October 24th, 2017 at 8:19:55 PM permalink
With all due respect, good sir, your post, top to bottom, is 90% dead wrong. I do not intend to denigrate you, but I do believe I have a responsibility not to allow incorrect and flawed information stand unchallenged. I believe that is ESPECIALLY true when the information looks good to a casual observer.

That said, let me address these points one by one:

Quote: WatchMeWin

Here is one of my posts from Sept...

"Playing for a long period of time is certainly a negative EV in craps an all other table games except card counting in bj. Playing the pass line is not a good bet in my opinion.... stacking large odds behind is the casino's way to lure you into a losing bet. You will have to make a number twice before a 7, which probabilities are not in your favor. If you want to put large bets on a roll of the dice you can just put that same amount on a place bet and take it down any time you like. That is your edge. sure you will get paid a tad bit less, but at least you have the control as to when you want to stop working. 6/5 rather than 7/6 on the 6 n 8 is hardly a difference maker... especially when it is more improbable of an outcome... same with the 4,5,9, n 10.



This paragraph is wrong in every possible way.

1.) Even if PL + Odds were not the best way to play, which they are, taking that same amount of money and putting it on the PL alone is better than making a Place Bet with it. The PL has a higher probability of winning and a lower House Edge than any combination of Place Bets.

2.) You have control as to when your odds, "Stop working," on the Pass Line. You can remove your Odds bets (or reduce) anytime you like as long as the PL has not yet been resolved.

3.) The PL, per resolution, has a lower expected loss for the same $$$ bets than do resolved Place Bets.

4.) PL + Odds, given the same overall $$$ amounts, is the best combination of bets to be made on an expected loss to money exposed (effective house edge) ratio.

5.) If you really think 6/5 is, "Hardly a difference maker," as opposed to 7:6, then there are a lot of 6:5 Blackjack Tables that would love to have you as opposed to 3:2 ones.

Quote:

If everyone would just play the numbers and walk away after they hit 2 boxes.... the casinos would not be as profitable.. but 99% of gamblers at the casinos have unrealistic expectations and can't / don't leave once they have a small profit. Everyone wants that 5000% return.... not happening consistently, frequently, nor realistically . Hit n run is the way to walk away a winner."



The only reason that this advice is somewhat good is NOT because you will, "Walk away a winner," more often, but because you will play less Craps, in general. If you make fewer -EV bets, (which all bets except Odds are...excepting a few casinos on Buy 4/Buy 10 and perhaps Field) then you have a lower expected loss over a finite number of physical days. In effect, making ten -EV bets per day (at the same House Edge) is better than making one hundred of them.

The casinos would not be as profitable ONLY because fewer -EV bets would be being made, but not because the expectation of any individual bet changes...because it doesn't.

Quote:

I could give you a ton of examples of how people Ive played craps with just dont turn their bets off, nor do they walk away from the table when they are ahead.... any amount ahead. This is where discipline and realistic expectations come in to play. But dont take my work for it. Next time you go to the craps table, just watch each roll and see if they make just 2 numbers (not points) just 2 numbers other than 7.... and see how people stay on every roll until the 7 out comes.



Again, every time you, "Leave it up," as opposed to taking it down, you are effectively making a new bet. The more bets you make, the more money you expect to lose. Your method really doesn't involve anything other than suggesting a lesser number of bets be made, which in and of itself, should be encouraged. That doesn't change the mathematical expectation of any individual bet, though.

Quote:

And for those who are saying.." what if they 7 out right away?" To that I say, this is the only way you can lose and it does happen. They key is to stay consistent on the next rolls and dont chase hard.. meaning press n press and not go off after a couple rolls. It is tough to do, but it has to be done. Additionally, you can not go over the amount you were willing to risk for the day. This could wipe out all of you past winnings. Discipline! Accept the loss now and then. It will happen. Tuck in your tail and leave.... live another day.

Casinos hate players that hit and run and dont put alot of time in. Be one of those players!



The casinos hate you so much that I imagine, one and all, they are still happily accepting every negative expectation bet you are willing to make, however infrequent.
Vultures can't be choosers.
WatchMeWin
WatchMeWin
Joined: May 20, 2011
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October 24th, 2017 at 8:42:37 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

With all due respect, good sir, your post, top to bottom, is 90% dead wrong. I do not intend to denigrate you, but I do believe I have a responsibility not to allow incorrect and flawed information stand unchallenged. I believe that is ESPECIALLY true when the information looks good to a casual observer.

That said, let me address these points one by one:



This paragraph is wrong in every possible way.

1.) Even if PL + Odds were not the best way to play, which they are, taking that same amount of money and putting it on the PL alone is better than making a Place Bet with it. The PL has a higher probability of winning and a lower House Edge than any combination of Place Bets.

2.) You have control as to when your odds, "Stop working," on the Pass Line. You can remove your Odds bets (or reduce) anytime you like as long as the PL has not yet been resolved.

3.) The PL, per resolution, has a lower expected loss for the same $$$ bets than do resolved Place Bets.

4.) PL + Odds, given the same overall $$$ amounts, is the best combination of bets to be made on an expected loss to money exposed (effective house edge) ratio.

5.) If you really think 6/5 is, "Hardly a difference maker," as opposed to 7:6, then there are a lot of 6:5 Blackjack Tables that would love to have you as opposed to 3:2 ones.



The only reason that this advice is somewhat good is NOT because you will, "Walk away a winner," more often, but because you will play less Craps, in general. If you make fewer -EV bets, (which all bets except Odds are...excepting a few casinos on Buy 4/Buy 10 and perhaps Field) then you have a lower expected loss over a finite number of physical days. In effect, making ten -EV bets per day (at the same House Edge) is better than making one hundred of them.

The casinos would not be as profitable ONLY because fewer -EV bets would be being made, but not because the expectation of any individual bet changes...because it doesn't.



Again, every time you, "Leave it up," as opposed to taking it down, you are effectively making a new bet. The more bets you make, the more money you expect to lose. Your method really doesn't involve anything other than suggesting a lesser number of bets be made, which in and of itself, should be encouraged. That doesn't change the mathematical expectation of any individual bet, though.



The casinos hate you so much that I imagine, one and all, they are still happily accepting every negative expectation bet you are willing to make, however infrequent.






When was the last time you played craps? How did you play and for how long? What was your end result?
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'

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