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WatchMeWin
WatchMeWin
Joined: May 20, 2011
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October 26th, 2017 at 7:41:48 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

With all due respect, good sir, your post, top to bottom, is 90% dead wrong. I do not intend to denigrate you, but I do believe I have a responsibility not to allow incorrect and flawed information stand unchallenged. I believe that is ESPECIALLY true when the information looks good to a casual observer.



Mission, I can appreciate your opinion, but I firmly disagree... as history and experience are greater evidence than throwing numbers around. Perhaps I have been super lucky 9,000x out of 10,000x consistently on the craps tables (approximately 10,000 shooters over the past 10 years - average 4 days a week x a modest 5 shooters per day x 50 weeks per year x past 10 years = 10,000). Yes, 90% success rate is about right.

You can play how you like. Im not selling a book. Not looking for money. Im just letting people know the best way to consistently win in craps.. in my experience and opinion. If you want to stay on trying to hit long rolls, play max odds on pass and come bet, and try to make 5000% each time you walk to the craps table, good luck, but it will end badly for anyone trying to do so.

When was the last time you played craps? How did you play / Strategy ? What was your outcome?
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
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October 26th, 2017 at 7:43:42 AM permalink
Experience and opinions are useless. Math will beat them every time.
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
WatchMeWin
WatchMeWin
Joined: May 20, 2011
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October 26th, 2017 at 11:51:04 AM permalink
Exactly! The numbers in profits gain from my cumulative experiences on the tables do not lie. One needs to know how to make it work.

A wise saying.... There once was a brilliant meteorologist. He was absolutely a genius with his science. Top of his class, knew weather like no other. He could predict when it would rain, precisely where it would rain, and how much rainfall. But when the rain came, he didn't have enough common sense and experience to open the damn umbrella.
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
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October 26th, 2017 at 12:02:50 PM permalink
Quote: WatchMeWin

Exactly! The numbers in profits gain from my cumulative experiences on the tables do not lie. One needs to know how to make it work.

A wise saying.... There once was a brilliant meteorologist. He was absolutely a genius with his science. Top of his class, knew weather like no other. He could predict when it would rain, precisely where it would rain, and how much rainfall. But when the rain came, he didn't have enough common sense and experience to open the damn umbrella.


I used to play a ton of Caribbean Stud poker long before I started AP'ing. I have a net positive monetary result from that game. Your short term exposure to the game is meaningless. Keep playing you'll eventually tap out.
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
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October 26th, 2017 at 12:48:42 PM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

you'll eventually tap out.



Aw, WoN thought he was agreeing with you - your comment about the math.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
WatchMeWin
WatchMeWin
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October 27th, 2017 at 3:33:32 PM permalink
Mission... I'm not sure if you got my last question but when was the last time you played craps? What was your strategy? And what was your outcome?
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
Mission146
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
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October 28th, 2017 at 10:51:30 AM permalink
Quote: WatchMeWin

Mission... I'm not sure if you got my last question but when was the last time you played craps? What was your strategy? And what was your outcome?



I would love to know how any of those things are relevant to the topic at hand. That said, assuming it is somehow relevant:

A.) Couple months ago.

B.) Pass/2x Odds, Place 6/8, never press.

C.) Won a little, but was not expected to.

I'm not arguing whether or not your method wins frequently, I am arguing that no method of play, particularly not the one that you describe, yields a positive expectation.

EDIT: In the rare event I play, I buy in for $40 or $50 at an empty table, and either lose or double it. Sometimes I do neither, I'll often not double it or lose all because I typically quit after my first hand with a net loss.
Vultures can't be choosers.
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
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October 28th, 2017 at 12:45:49 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

I typically quit after my first hand with a net loss.

I tend to want a bit more bang for my buck and try to keep going hoping luck will change, but personal preferences aside that House Edge applies to every bet you make irrespective of any pauses in your game.
Zcore13
Zcore13
Joined: Nov 30, 2009
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October 28th, 2017 at 1:19:02 PM permalink
Quote: FleaStiff

I tend to want a bit more bang for my buck and try to keep going hoping luck will change, but personal preferences aside that House Edge applies to every bet you make irrespective of any pauses in your game.



I don't think he pauses. Lol. I think he quits.


ZCore13
I am an employee of a Casino. Former Table Games Director,, current Pit Supervisor. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.
Mission146
Mission146
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October 28th, 2017 at 4:28:05 PM permalink
Quote: Zcore13

I don't think he pauses. Lol. I think he quits.


ZCore13



That's correct, and I agree with FleaStiff that every bet has a negative expectation.

I mean, it's a lifelong session, so I guess I pause in the sense that I intend to play Craps again at some point in my life, but I did mean that I don't play anymore that day and don't know when I'll be playing again.

It really doesn't take me much action to get my, "Fix," when it comes to Craps. That's mostly because I get so irritated when I lose, even though that is the expected result. If some winning is followed by a losing hand, then I say, "Why not leave ahead?"

You guys can ask TeddyS, as soon as I lose a hand of anything (with exception to Let it Ride or Pai-Gow Poker) I'm pretty much done. Of course, I've played LiR twice this entire year and haven't played PGP since I was last in Vegas, so that tells you how much -EV I'm putting into those games.
Vultures can't be choosers.

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