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WatchMeWin
WatchMeWin
Joined: May 20, 2011
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October 21st, 2017 at 9:22:30 AM permalink
Play the probabilities in your favor.
Have realistic expectations.
Understand Management and Discipline.
Hit n Run.

If all criteria is applied , one can consistently walk out with more then they walked in with. Although the management, discipline, and realistic expectations is extremely difficult for 99% of the people that gamble in casinos.
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
odiousgambit
odiousgambit 
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
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October 21st, 2017 at 9:31:56 AM permalink
Quote: WatchMeWin

Play the probabilities in your favor



Can't argue with the concept, but I wouldn't mind it if you made a list of those bets to make please.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
jackgriffin
jackgriffin
Joined: Oct 18, 2017
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October 21st, 2017 at 9:47:49 AM permalink
Here's my list
1. find a hot machine
2. find a cold dealer
3. take the money and run
MaxPen
MaxPen
Joined: Feb 4, 2015
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October 21st, 2017 at 12:35:19 PM permalink
You should make that your signature line.
Doc
Doc
Joined: Feb 27, 2010
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October 21st, 2017 at 12:49:31 PM permalink
Quote: WatchMeWin

Play the probabilities in your favor.


If f that's an acceptable "strategy" for craps, then I propose an alternate: Play the pass line and "E" while shooting and roll nothing but yo after yo.
DeMango
DeMango
Joined: Feb 2, 2010
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October 22nd, 2017 at 5:12:13 PM permalink
Are you from Mesa, AZ AARP craps club?
sabre
sabre
Joined: Aug 16, 2010
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October 22nd, 2017 at 5:48:15 PM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

Can't argue with the concept, but I wouldn't mind it if you made a list of those bets to make please.



There's an accurate list of all profitable craps bets in his OP.
WatchMeWin
WatchMeWin
Joined: May 20, 2011
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Thanks for this post from:
beachmonkey
October 23rd, 2017 at 5:11:28 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

Can't argue with the concept, but I wouldn't mind it if you made a list of those bets to make please.



Here is one of my posts from Sept...

"Playing for a long period of time is certainly a negative EV in craps an all other table games except card counting in bj. Playing the pass line is not a good bet in my opinion.... stacking large odds behind is the casino's way to lure you into a losing bet. You will have to make a number twice before a 7, which probabilities are not in your favor. If you want to put large bets on a roll of the dice you can just put that same amount on a place bet and take it down any time you like. That is your edge. sure you will get paid a tad bit less, but at least you have the control as to when you want to stop working. 6/5 rather than 7/6 on the 6 n 8 is hardly a difference maker... especially when it is more improbable of an outcome... same with the 4,5,9, n 10.

If everyone would just play the numbers and walk away after they hit 2 boxes.... the casinos would not be as profitable.. but 99% of gamblers at the casinos have unrealistic expectations and can't / don't leave once they have a small profit. Everyone wants that 5000% return.... not happening consistently, frequently, nor realistically . Hit n run is the way to walk away a winner."

I could give you a ton of examples of how people Ive played craps with just dont turn their bets off, nor do they walk away from the table when they are ahead.... any amount ahead. This is where discipline and realistic expectations come in to play. But dont take my work for it. Next time you go to the craps table, just watch each roll and see if they make just 2 numbers (not points) just 2 numbers other than 7.... and see how people stay on every roll until the 7 out comes.

I played craps with a friend last week who swore he would follow my lead. He did this because he has watched me win over and over while he lost.. and we were on the same table and rolls. We proceeded to make a few dollars here and there... going off after every shoot hit 2 numbers. We were up 200% on our buy in within 15 mins.. I said I was done and colored up. He proceeded to say playing and got greedy. He did not go off after hitting a couple of numbers on each shooter. Inevitably , he lost it all. Enough said. Ive seen this scenario over and over and over. Hit n Run is how to beat the casino. I dont care if you only make 50 bucks on the day... at least you didnt lose.

And for those who are saying..'by playing this way , you will miss that big roll'. To that I say if you stay on every shooter looking for that long roll, you will go broke so quick you probably wont have enough back up to play when that long roll hits... which is maybe 1 out of every 10,000 shoots.. if not more!

And for those who are saying.." what if they 7 out right away?" To that I say, this is the only way you can lose and it does happen. They key is to stay consistent on the next rolls and dont chase hard.. meaning press n press and not go off after a couple rolls. It is tough to do, but it has to be done. Additionally, you can not go over the amount you were willing to risk for the day. This could wipe out all of you past winnings. Discipline! Accept the loss now and then. It will happen. Tuck in your tail and leave.... live another day.

Casinos hate players that hit and run and dont put alot of time in. Be one of those players!
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
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October 23rd, 2017 at 6:48:44 AM permalink
Quote: WatchMeWin

Hit n Run.

That is the same thing that Lady Luck, a/k/a Lady Variance, does to me, hit and run.

It may not quite be "play the probabilities in your favor" its more play them wisely and knowingly. Only one casino had a web site where they repeatedly claimed "the odds are in your favor" and I sent the Director of Table Games an email indicating the absurdity of that, reminding him of the Nevada regulations and indicating I would re-check the website in thirty days. About a week later they hired a web consultant to re-do their website.
Last edited by: FleaStiff on Oct 23, 2017
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
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October 23rd, 2017 at 6:59:35 AM permalink
Quote: WatchMeWin

If everyone would just play the numbers and walk away after they hit 2 boxes.... the casinos would not be as profitable.. but 99% of gamblers at the casinos have unrealistic expectations and can't / don't leave once they have a small profit. Everyone wants that 5000% return.... not happening consistently, frequently, nor realistically . Hit n run is the way to walk away a winner."

Yeah, but no one played sardine in the airliner or forked over money for a hotel room to walk away after a very brief period. Where are you going to go? Up to the room? Watch tv? Go a bar and see if your gambling improves?

If you play long enough its 'up jumped the Devil' but if you "hit and run" it can be expensive also.

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