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gts4ever
gts4ever
Joined: Apr 2, 2013
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April 16th, 2013 at 11:30:10 AM permalink
I'm pretty new to this forum so maybe if I knew some more of the history I wouldn't have this question, but I'm going to ask it anyway.

Why is it that many on here seem aghast when Ahigh talks about shooter skill? I get the impression that some of you understand what he is saying but try to back him into a corner by asking for official statements that can be proven wrong.

To me, Ahigh is describing an AP craps player as someone comparable to a MLB pitcher. Not every pitch goes where they want it, even when it does, sometimes batters will get a hit. Sometimes when they miss locations, they still wind up getting a strike or out. But the better the pitcher, the more times he will throw the pitch he wants. Over time that should result in better than random results. I don't see people asking for mathematic proofs showing why one pitcher is better than another other than to compare the results over a sufficiently long period of time.

I'm not saying I even lean one way or another since I don't know nearly as much as probably anyone in this discussion, but I don't find it beyond belief that tossing two dice against a fixed backdrop, given constant rules of physics, is something that could be practiced and manipulated, even if it appears clumsy to the naked eye.
Ahigh
Ahigh
Joined: May 19, 2010
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April 16th, 2013 at 11:37:57 AM permalink
Quote: gts4ever

I'm pretty new to this forum so maybe if I knew some more of the history I wouldn't have this question, but I'm going to ask it anyway.

Why is it that many on here seem aghast when Ahigh talks about shooter skill? I get the impression that some of you understand what he is saying but try to back him into a corner by asking for official statements that can be proven wrong.

To me, Ahigh is describing an AP craps player as someone comparable to a MLB pitcher. Not every pitch goes where they want it, even when it does, sometimes batters will get a hit. Sometimes when they miss locations, they still wind up getting a strike or out. But the better the pitcher, the more times he will throw the pitch he wants. Over time that should result in better than random results. I don't see people asking for mathematic proofs showing why one pitcher is better than another other than to compare the results over a sufficiently long period of time.

I'm not saying I even lean one way or another since I don't know nearly as much as probably anyone in this discussion, but I don't find it beyond belief that tossing two dice against a fixed backdrop, given constant rules of physics, is something that could be practiced and manipulated, even if it appears clumsy to the naked eye.





The true sport is antagonizing anyone who does not flatly DISMISS the possibility of dice control on this forum. You don't even have to be a claimed advantage shooter (which I am not currently). Just one who entertains the possibility and you are a target for criticism on this forum.

This is part of the forum being so centered around certainties.

The extra work required to make a proof that it's possible (and therefore lack of such proof) leads so many down the path of assuming it has been proven to be impossible.

Certainty (or lack thereof) as it relates to this debate is what fuels these debates. And those who have cognitive dissonance in their brain from not knowing just want closure and assume it's not possible so that they might cull off the necessary thought processes to come to an accurate conclusion whether it's possible or not.

Using circumstantial evidence that people who are not intelligent claim to be able to do things that they cannot do is the most common way people prove to themselves that it's not possible.

But that's not proof of anything at all.

People naturally want closure, and there isn't enough evidence and agreed upon proof that anyone can perform advantage play craps from a controlled shot similar to those being sold by Golden Touch, Little Joe, and other advertised shots that claim to give players an advantage.

I'm sure that some techniques being sold are garbage. But that means nothing to the debate at all.
Zcore13
Zcore13
Joined: Nov 30, 2009
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April 16th, 2013 at 12:21:17 PM permalink
Quote: gts4ever

I'm pretty new to this forum so maybe if I knew some more of the history I wouldn't have this question, but I'm going to ask it anyway.

Why is it that many on here seem aghast when Ahigh talks about shooter skill? I get the impression that some of you understand what he is saying but try to back him into a corner by asking for official statements that can be proven wrong.

To me, Ahigh is describing an AP craps player as someone comparable to a MLB pitcher. Not every pitch goes where they want it, even when it does, sometimes batters will get a hit. Sometimes when they miss locations, they still wind up getting a strike or out. But the better the pitcher, the more times he will throw the pitch he wants. Over time that should result in better than random results. I don't see people asking for mathematic proofs showing why one pitcher is better than another other than to compare the results over a sufficiently long period of time.

I'm not saying I even lean one way or another since I don't know nearly as much as probably anyone in this discussion, but I don't find it beyond belief that tossing two dice against a fixed backdrop, given constant rules of physics, is something that could be practiced and manipulated, even if it appears clumsy to the naked eye.



Welcome to the forum. The problem with your analysis and with Ahigh is that you do have to compare results to an everage player, both in baseball and when you are trying to prove you have some sort of control of the dice.

You statement of "I don't see people asking for mathematic proofs showing why one pitcher is better than another other than to compare the results over a sufficiently long period of time." is incorrect. That's what ERA, WHIP, K/BB ratio, etc, etc does. It compares results of every pitcher to the others to determine who is above average and who is below. Each pitcher can be compared with any other for a year, two years, 5 years or a career. They are also professionals and pitch at every different park, even if there are a lot of tourists there or some of the other players on the team are new to the team and he doesn't know them or many other variables. A pitcher can do this because he has proven he can influence and control his pitches. Dice influencers wont let you do that because they don't have any more control than the average.

Ahigh, and all the other people that say they can influence or contol the dice (legally), can't show any relevent statistics or results that are not beyond the average player. They state things after the fact, not before. Blackjack advantage players at times have a statistal advantage that is provable and repeatable. So do other players that play various other table games and side bets. So do Video Poker players. There are BRILLIANT minds on this forum that can prove everything, except dice control. That's why people ask Ahigh questions that they know he can't answer with a straight answer. It's always a dodge or accusation back.

ZCore13
I am an employee of a Casino. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.
EvenBob
EvenBob
Joined: Jul 18, 2010
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April 16th, 2013 at 12:42:44 PM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

You have no clue about what your'e talking about. .



But you do seem to think someone is an
advantage player just because he says so.
You have to meet certain criteria to be
an AP, and it starts with the long term math.
There's no way to talk, wiggle, or squirm
your way out of it. If you can't prove it with
the numbers, you're not an AP.

Period.
"It's not enough to succeed, your friends must fail." Gore Vidal
dicesitter
dicesitter
Joined: Jan 17, 2013
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April 16th, 2013 at 12:50:26 PM permalink
the truth



well you already know the truth...... every bet the casino allows you to make has a negative return, every slot machine you play
has a house advantage, every hand of 3 or 4 card poker you play has a very large advantage, every time you make a hardway bet
or fire bet the house has a 9 point or high advantage.

The casino is better than you and I at knowing what can and can not be done, if it can be done they change the rules for
bj if your good at setting the dice they tell you to throw harder. On the very long tables or very higher tables were no one can
get an advantage they still tell you to hit the back wall.

What truth are you trying to find anyway..... it is 100% impossible to prove anything, particularly in dice influencing because
even if you have exactly the same throw, you are different than every other thrower. You can not possible prove one thing is
the same for all people.

Even if you proved to your satisfaction what ever you are trying to prove. what are you going to do with that, tell all the casino's
see this works so now you can ban all dice sitters, or see this does not work so you dont have to...

every good dice sewtter and I am sure Frank has as well as spoken with casino people and indicated that dice setting is a net
possitive for the casino.... and it is.... they dont care.... end of story

The truth for one is not the truth for another

Dicesitter
EvenBob
EvenBob
Joined: Jul 18, 2010
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April 16th, 2013 at 12:51:54 PM permalink
Quote: Zcore13

Blackjack advantage players at times have a statistal advantage that is provable and repeatable.

ZCore13



Thats the bottom line, provable and repeatable over an
infinite number of trials. No brick wall to hit. A bank
approves loans to build new casinos because the owner
can prove beyond a shadow of a doubt the games he
offers give him the mathematical edge. If he couldn't
do that, he'd never get a dime.

You can't wiggle out of the math requirement and claim
to be an AP, not a real AP, anyway.
"It's not enough to succeed, your friends must fail." Gore Vidal
Face
Administrator
Face
Joined: Dec 27, 2010
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April 16th, 2013 at 1:57:03 PM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

Advantage play craps includes such things as burning specific corners of the dice in order to get a non-random outcome and bet accordingly.

But in general, advantage play craps involves getting an advantage from the outcome of the dice being unevenly distributed among the 21 possible outcomes.

The part that is the most argued about is whether or not you can get that uneven distribution using a controlled shot with 100% fair dice.

There is no argument that dice can be modified to get an advantage in the game, and this is advantage play craps. It does exist, it's just that modification of the dice (by the player) is illegal if done purposefully to alter the outcome so that it is no longer 100% random.

There is more than a single method to get a player edge in the game. This also includes collusion with dealers (also illegal), tok-for-mistake in player's advantage (very common, yet also illegal if it can be proven or if you admit to doing this), late betting the don't pass line after a point is established (obviously illegal and an easy way to go to jail, yet if you act stupid enough you can get away with trying it, and many people innocently do try it without knowing the rules of the game), using free bets to overcome the negative aspect of the game (getting over-comp'd -- EG: if they comp your odds as they do in some places).

But using the above information, and I do consider this advantage play (illegal or not, there's an advantage), it's obvious that you can AP the game.



Iím somewhat shocked the APs here havenít gone all PaiGowDan on you for this. There is, in my opinion and I believe the opinion of all of the APs here, a complete difference between almost everything you listed (illegal activities and blatant cheating) and AP (legal exploitation of an inherent edge).

Physically changing the properties of the die, toking for collusion, past posting; these are not AP. These are criminal acts and can in no way be used as evidence of ďan edgeĒ no more than I could claim Iím a financial wizard because of all the money I have, money which was obtained by bank robbery.

Inherent bias, such as must be present in some quantity in every die ever made, could theoretically be an AP move. The question, which still remains unsolved, is how much bias is required and how possible is it for the human mind to evaluate it? Answer those two questions and prove them as possible and you have proof of AP.

Thereís AP for just about every card based game (including ďelectronic cardsĒ) out there, every single one of them provable and repeatable and explainable. So far, youíve just posted a theoretical possibility and a handful of criminal activities.
The opinions of this moderator are for entertainment purposes only.
Zcore13
Zcore13
Joined: Nov 30, 2009
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April 16th, 2013 at 1:59:38 PM permalink
You are exactly right. And real AP's have no interest in discussing this with Ahigh because his points are, well, pointless. I do want to commend you on a new forum term... "going all PaiGowDan" on someone. That made me laugh!

ZCore13
I am an employee of a Casino. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.
DeMango
DeMango
Joined: Feb 2, 2010
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April 16th, 2013 at 2:03:19 PM permalink
The very concept of advantage player would disallow public scrutiny of your advantage. No one is that stupid. Even the guy with the mask!
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
hook3670
hook3670
Joined: May 17, 2011
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April 16th, 2013 at 2:11:02 PM permalink
OK "going all PAIGOWDAN" on someone might have to be trademarked. I just laughed my ass off.

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