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EvenBob
EvenBob
Joined: Jul 18, 2010
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April 16th, 2013 at 7:11:13 AM permalink
AP is very simple. it means when you walk in a
casino you have the advantage in your game
and not the casino. Every time you walk in, not
just sometimes. Its a positive edge that manifests
itself over time. You have it or you don't, there's
no maybe involved.

Do dice shooters have that? And of course there's
a 'conclusion', Ahigh. If you don't know if you have
an edge or not, you don't. It doesn't come and go,
its there all the time. It can be proven with math,
like in BJ advantage play.
"It's not enough to succeed, your friends must fail." Gore Vidal
Ahigh
Ahigh
Joined: May 19, 2010
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April 16th, 2013 at 7:24:51 AM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Do dice shooters have that? And of course there's
a 'conclusion', Ahigh. If you don't know if you have
an edge or not, you don't. It doesn't come and go,
its there all the time. It can be proven with math,
like in BJ advantage play.



Sorry Bob. I hate having to correct you on this, but if advantage play on craps is possible, it's not due to math or statistics unless you're exploiting biased dice.

If advantage play on craps is possible, you are dependent on the performance of the shooter.

And as the shooter gets older, the advantage will disappear.

For any given theoretically advantaged shooter, there is a career lifetime for the shooter, after which retirement will be required.

I can't deliver a satisfactory shot when I get nervous because my hands shake. I have finally gotten over this problem for the most part.

But if you're shaking or nervous or just plain old and frail, you are much less likely to have a controlled shot, even if it is proven possible.

Some people just don't have the physical dexterity to ever be an advantage craps player.

So for some people (IMO for MOST people), it's absolutely correct that AP craps play is not possible.

Even for those that it is, I believe it requires a solid year of practice and training if you want to bring that number in.

But all of this is theory from my perspective as nothing has been proven.

But even though it's theory, your assertion that it's just based on math is wrong. There is no math based advantage play on craps. That much is certain.
EvenBob
EvenBob
Joined: Jul 18, 2010
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April 16th, 2013 at 7:36:58 AM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

Sorry Bob. I hate having to correct you on this, but if advantage play on craps is possible, it's not due to math



AP is never 'due' to the math, its proven with math. Big
difference. If AP in craps has ever been consistently
proven with math, that the shooter has the advantage
in the long run every time he plays, its never been shown
here. Read Kewlj's latest thread, he's been down all year,
but kept playing because there was never any doubt he
had the edge. The math says so. It doesn't say that with
craps, does it.
"It's not enough to succeed, your friends must fail." Gore Vidal
Ahigh
Ahigh
Joined: May 19, 2010
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April 16th, 2013 at 7:42:54 AM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

AP is never 'due' to the math, its proven with math. Big
difference. If AP in craps has ever been consistently
proven with math, that the shooter has the advantage
in the long run every time he plays, its never been shown
here. Read Kewlj's latest thread, he's been down all year,
but kept playing because there was never any doubt he
had the edge. The math says so. It doesn't say that with
craps, does it.



Math != Statistics

BZZZT!

You cannot prove AP craps play with math alone.

Proving AP craps play for a given shooter is not a certainty that the shooter will always enjoy AP craps play.

Your comments illuminate your very limited view on the subject. It's an interesting read!
Jimbo
Jimbo
Joined: Mar 11, 2013
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April 16th, 2013 at 7:45:22 AM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

The forum doesn't have a view. The forum is made up of many members.

I realize that. I was interested in the views (plural) of the members.

Quote: Ahigh

Some members say things that aren't true...Expect to get a lie.

I'd like to believe I have enough experience over the years and I've put forth enough effort in the game of craps to be able to sort out most of the truths, superstitions, and half-truths.

I give most people the benefit of the doubt and rather than characterize a member of the forum as lying, I'd rather think of a person as mistaken. There is a difference.

I recognize that in some areas of gaming, and craps in particular, there is disagreement--sometimes very strong disagreement.

There are many diverse approaches to the game--which is one of the reasons it is a fascinating game and also entertaining to watch how others approach the game and play.

Some people believe in "betting systems" in craps in spite of the mathematical evidence to the contrary. Also the fact that there is a huge gaming industry nation-and-world-wide employing hundreds of thousands, generating billions of revenue and tax dollars and patronized by millions of people over the course of many years in which no valid betting system in craps has yet been found, or otherwise the rules of the game would have been changed to counteract such a system.

The discussion of dice control on this Forum is clearly a subject with strong disagreement.

And there are those who will gladly pay others in the hope they will learn the "secret" to long-term success and riches in the game of craps. And plenty of people who will gladly take their money.

I don't get worked up too much when others disagree with me--which I actually do not hear about too often since I avoid proselytizing about my play. I do get asked on occasion, and in those instances I will explain how and why I play the way I do. But I don't worry whether the questioner is persuaded or not. I take satisfaction in knowing what I do has worked very well for me.

As with many things in life, different strokes for different folks. No point in losing sleep when someone has a contrary opinion.

And certainly no point in getting "personal."
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
Joined: Oct 5, 2011
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April 16th, 2013 at 7:47:48 AM permalink
We're going to go in circles for 120 pages unless someone comes up with a definition for "advantage play."

If you make up your own definition, everything is advantage play.
EvenBob
EvenBob
Joined: Jul 18, 2010
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April 16th, 2013 at 7:50:24 AM permalink
Quote: Ahigh


You cannot prove AP craps play with math alone.



Of course you can, just like the casino can prove its edge
in craps with math alone. Or its edge in any other of its
games. If you can't prove that you have a consistent edge
when you throw the dice, with math, you aren't an AP.
You're just a figment of you're own imagination and wishful
thinking.

Statistics prove your edge over time. You can produce no
such statistics, so you're not an AP.
"It's not enough to succeed, your friends must fail." Gore Vidal
Ahigh
Ahigh
Joined: May 19, 2010
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April 16th, 2013 at 7:51:10 AM permalink
I think a lot of the people lying on this forum aren't intentionally misleading people. They believe what they are saying, but many lies are still told.

Such lies are "it's not possible to AP craps."

It is closure, but there is no certainty to such a certain assertion.

Those who chose that it's not possible have no way to come to their conclusion any more than someone who goes to church every sunday has a proof that their God is the one true God and that other gods are false prophets.

It won't matter to them because they have decided to believe in what they believe in, and they routinely cite their beliefs as their passion for how they live their life.

But if I were to tell them "you're religion is based on false hopes" I am sure it would offend them.

It's not unlike Advantage Play craps except that there are faithful on both sides of the fence with AP craps play, not just one.
treetopbuddy
treetopbuddy
Joined: Jan 12, 2013
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April 16th, 2013 at 7:51:37 AM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

We're going to go in circles for 120 pages unless someone comes up with a definition for "advantage play."

If you make up your own definition, everything is advantage play.



Here's a definition of AP.....you win more than you lose.
Each day is better than the next
Ahigh
Ahigh
Joined: May 19, 2010
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April 16th, 2013 at 7:52:59 AM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Of course you can, just like the casino can prove its edge
in craps with math alone. Or its edge in any other of its
games. If you can't prove that you have a consistent edge
when you throw the dice, with math, you aren't an AP.
You're just a figment of you're own imagination and wishful
thinking.

Statistics prove your edge over time. You can produce no
such statistics, so you're not an AP.



Uhm, no you can't because there is no way to do it with just math and 100% purely random outcomes.

You have a very limited view of this game I am realizing.

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