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Jimbo
Jimbo
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April 16th, 2013 at 9:40:16 AM permalink
I included in my original definition of Advantage Play the following: "...using skill and knowledge in a legal way."

Unquestionably it is possible to describe illegal ways to achieve an advantage in craps, but that is not what is intended by most people in discussing the play of APs. At least, that is not what I intended in this thread.
Ahigh
Ahigh
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April 16th, 2013 at 9:47:55 AM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

Ahigh give me a more specific answer about what is advantage play for craps? I don't think "advantage players" at blackjack or even some video poker games can identify with what you are talking about. For blackjack and video poker, the "advantage" comes from winning, and being in a position to keep winning and to have an actual play by play advantage over the house. You wrote more of an essay than a definition of advantage play for craps.

If for example you said that as an advantage player you always have a mathematical advantage on each and every bet it would be something that the blackjack and video poker players could identify with.

I'm at a loss of words to describe what a craps advantage play would be, so I am hoping you can come up with it.



Legal AP craps is when you know that you will get more OR less of a particular outcome of the dice, and you bet in a way that takes advantage of that fact.

You still have to use the math, but it's only part of the picture.

I don't expect people who struggle to understand advantage play blackjack or advantage play video poker to easily grasp advantage play craps.

The math just lets you know where the easiest hurdles to overcome are.

As an example, with my roll data, if I use the 2323 set, I get a ton of fours and just as few sevens. I would be required to have 4:7 ratio significantly higher than 1:2 to overcome the 0.33% edge per roll on the four. If I were to attempt AP play this way, I would probably work the four on the comeout, and bet the don't pass line to shoot to reduce my exposure from a $25 loss on a seven to only $20 while still maintaining a low edge without betting against myself since I'm aiming for a four on the comeout.

I hope this helps, but if you are complaining that I'm giving you too much information, my feeling is that you will just not understand what AP craps play is no matter what I say.

It's not like I haven't been posting on this forum for months explaining this type of thing and yet you still have some of the most basic questions demonstrating a lack of knowledge that is quite unusual from my perspective given your interest level.

To make another point: free odds bets are great for those who plan to get lucky. But you can overcome a 0.33% edge per roll with a shot in theory from my perspective. It's easier to overcome it with luck in the long run if you get it down lower, but if you can get 1% to 10% player edge on the four with your shot, free odds bets can get you betting on numbers where you don't have as good of an edge, and you feel obligated to take every free odds bet, you can shoot yourself in the foot with a controlled throw taking free bets IMO.
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
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April 16th, 2013 at 9:53:59 AM permalink
deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
Ahigh
Ahigh
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April 16th, 2013 at 10:00:41 AM permalink
Just looking at what's on the top of my set, I get that 1 in 29 instead of 1 in 36. It's been that way since August for all my recorded throws.

That might not be "knowing" but I sure take advantage of it continuing to happen this way at home and in the casino. Maybe it's not knowledge and it's just luck. I don't care what it is as long as it keeps happening I bet accordingly.
Zcore13
Zcore13
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April 16th, 2013 at 10:02:24 AM permalink
His basic theory of advantage play is by cheating and breaking the law. Manipulating the dice. Brilliiant.

Quote: Ahigh

Advantage play craps includes such things as burning specific corners of the dice in order to get a non-random outcome and bet accordingly.

But in general, advantage play craps involves getting an advantage from the outcome of the dice being unevenly distributed among the 21 possible outcomes.

The part that is the most argued about is whether or not you can get that uneven distribution using a controlled shot with 100% fair dice.

There is no argument that dice can be modified to get an advantage in the game, and this is advantage play craps. It does exist, it's just that modification of the dice (by the player) is illegal if done purposefully to alter the outcome so that it is no longer 100% random.




But wait, I'm sure I'm wrong. I'm lying about is own quote...


ZCore13
I am an employee of a Casino. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.
Ahigh
Ahigh
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April 16th, 2013 at 10:06:31 AM permalink
Quote: Zcore13

But wait, I'm sure I'm wrong. I'm lying about is own quote...



I said it includes. I didn't say it was basic theory.

My point in mentioning all of these things was to point out how obvious it is that advantage play is possible.

Whether it is a lie or not, you continue to have an agenda of attempting to discredit what I say.

Nowhere did I say "here is how you do it" or "here are the basics for approaching advantage play" as you imply with your statements.

I said it INCLUDES these obvious methods of obtaining an advantage, which are known, and therefore are illegal.

The point in mentioning all of this is that the casino is generally making laws to prevent advantage play from occurring to protect themselves.

Not to suggest that anyone break the law to perform advantage play.

But keep on with your little agenda of attempting to discredit my claims.

To me so many of your claims are obviously false and obviously misleading it's ridiculous.

I'm sure that you're fooling someone though, so keep at it for their benefit.

The subject of the thread is "is it possible."

The answer is "yes."

Every single person who voted no is wrong in my opinion. And certainly if you define advantage play in craps appropriately, you could claim it's not possible. But most advantage play techniques that exist are made illegal BECAUSE they exist.

It's very simple!
Jimbo
Jimbo
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April 16th, 2013 at 10:08:57 AM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

The trick in every single instance of AP playing craps is how to get away with it in the long run. Just like blackjack. And a lot of the answer for that has more to do with having a good personality that allows the table to continue to win money, and ideally to win more money while you are there (IE: if you are a shill for the house when you're not betting, they will love you).

With all due respect, Ahigh, I am a little baffled or confused by some of your comments. I blame myself in that I may be reading more into it than you intended.

In my own extensive craps play, I have never been concerned about "getting away with it in the long run." Even when up, my play has been welcomed.

And how does having a good personality allow the table to win money?

Quote: Ahigh

Even someone who is just really lucky and bets standard bets and wins while everyone wins is less likely to continue to have that good fortune than someone who wins money and doesn't bet the same way as everyone else on the table with every bet they win on.


It seems you are saying in this second quote that to win in the long run ("to continue to have that good fortune") it is necessary that you bet contrary to others on the table.

Quote: Ahigh

IE: the advantage play craps player that has a career instead of a sprint of good income is the one that's not greedy and is close friends with the pit crews that pay him. His daily take is less than 1/10th the daily take of the table, and more likely 1/20th or even less than that. The average table makes less than $2,000 per day. So $200 income per day per table is about what you should limit yourself to if you want to continue doing it.

Here you seem to say that to win in the long run ("a career instead of a sprint") you cannot be greedy and the only way to be allowed to play as a winner at a craps table is to limit yourself to no more than $200 income per day.

At the risk of sounding immodest and also acknowledging that I play for higher stakes, I would stop going to the casino altogether if I thought that I could only average $200 per day for each day of craps play.
Ahigh
Ahigh
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April 16th, 2013 at 10:17:14 AM permalink
Quote: Jimbo

At the risk of sounding immodest and also acknowledging that I play for higher stakes, I would stop going to the casino altogether if I thought that I could only average $200 per day for each day of craps play.



First and foremost, Jimbo, I appreciate your posts and questions and your honesty.

The easiest way to be a lifetime winner at any casino game is to play fewer events on the game.

I am a lifetime winner at blackjack and at video slots in fact!

But if you play at sufficiently high stakes relative to your available resources, you are, by definition, a gambler.

Gamblers who play at higher stakes and less often are much more likely to win than someone who plays as often as I play.

AP at the casino involves leveraging an edge through repetitious play that exploits that edge.

Not trying to make the edge so small or the number of events so few that luck determines your future.

I have played an average of 3 hours a day for three years now here in Vegas.

I am known by a very large percentage of the dealers at the casinos that I visit.

As an example, I went into the Plaza Sunday night, and I started to play.

I pulled $100 out of my wallet and the boxman knows who I am. I started winning and he came by to watch, and I sevened out on a short roll.

I said "on a shorty?"

He walked away, then he came back and told me "both dice have to hit the back wall" when both dice did hit the back wall.

It was clear he didn't want me at the casino. I looked at him in the eye and I said "everything down, lay the 8 for $24, lay the 5 for $30, pass the dice."

I hadn't even begun to play and I had $3500 in my wallet. He has seen me take four figures off his table in 10 minutes, and his comment had nothing to do with my short roll (the only one of which was a seven). He just didn't want me taking his money.

That table has been reported by a dealer at the D a few days earlier as having been dumping hard, and he's in the spotlight to protect it.

I'm not going to bust his balls. There are plenty of places for me to play.

If I only had came in with $100 and had nothing in my wallet or if he hadn't recognized me and eyeballed my wallet when I came into the game, I would not have gotten that treatment. At least not until I had won enough to take a lot from him quickly.

This guy knows when I start with $25 passline bets on a 10x table and what my play style is and what my resources are that he need to be defensive. It's his job to not let the table dump, basically.

I just make this point though to say everything changes when you are overt in letting people know what you're doing.

And I hide nothing from anyone. They all know there about my website and everything else, and they have taken no money from me there.
Zcore13
Zcore13
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April 16th, 2013 at 10:30:21 AM permalink
You make no sense. You include illegal acts in your definition of AP. You include rolls where both dice don't hit the back wall in your "influencing" statistics and expaination of how it's possible. You can't play at certain tables or places or with too many tourists or too many people at the table. You believe there is a chance for the US Dollar to be worth nothing and Bitcoin is your insurance against it. You say you are trying to roll hard 10's (even though it was actually 4's and 10's to start with) and when you don't get what you want for the first 100+ rolls you just weren't "concentrating" enough. Then you get a good run of them all of a sudden and NOW your concentrating enough and influencing.

Everyone is trying to be nice and ask you questions to try and lead you into some enlightenment. You refuse. I'm starting to wonder about your mental state.

ZCore13
I am an employee of a Casino. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.
Ahigh
Ahigh
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April 16th, 2013 at 10:37:56 AM permalink
Quote: Zcore13



Everyone is trying to be nice and ask you questions to try and lead you into some enlightenment.

I'm starting to wonder about your mental state.



Very contrasting claims there. Are you genuinely concerned for my mental state? Or would you prefer to call me retarded and that's against the rules here.

Which is it, you're trying to be nice, or you're wondering about my mental state?

I don't think that both can be true. I think that I have pointed out many of your false claims, and you attempt to do the same to me without as much efficacy and so you lash out with claims that you are worried about me as a replacement for calling me a name.

Even the statement "everyone is trying to be nice to you" is false.

Everyone is pretty broad, and therefore the statement is clearly false.

You just aren't concerned with the validity of YOUR claims, and you incorrectly infer the invalidity of mine.

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