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35 votes (58.33%)
25 votes (41.66%)

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Jimbo
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April 16th, 2013 at 1:39:55 AM permalink
Is there such a thing as an Advantage Player (AP) in craps? (And I apologize if this has been covered before.)

I suppose it may be how you define "advantage playing." So, what is your definition of an Advantage Player? And how does this relate to craps?

If the generally agreed upon definition of an Advantage Player is "one who has a mathematical advantage over the casino game, using skill and knowledge in a legal way" then it is reasonable that there is no such thing as an Advantage Player in craps.

For those proponents of precision shooting, they will likely maintain the only way to gain a mathematical advantage in craps is with the use of their shooting method to achieve dice control or dice influence. This thread is NOT intended to be a debate on whether you agree or not agree with dice control.

If the definition is expanded to include "a disciplined player who only plays in such a way to keep the house edge to a minimum" then certainly even non-believers and non-followers of dice control may be defined as an Advantage Player--depending on how they play the game.

I've not been on other sites that are specifically for APs and there may be lack of agreement as to exactly what defines an "Advantage Player" and whether the game of craps is included in their discussion of advantage playing.

I think it is universally held that APs exist in the following casino games:
1. Blackjack
2. Video Poker
3. In rare instances, progressive slot machines where a large jackpot may offer a positive return
4. Bonus hunting situations (e.g. in online games)
5. Unique situations when casinos may offer a special promotion that presents an advantage situation

Additionally, the following should be included, though they are not situations directly against the casino:
6. Poker
7. Arbitrage sports betting

So what is the view of this Forum about advantage playing and craps?
AlanMendelson
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April 16th, 2013 at 2:57:11 AM permalink
Advantage Play requires that you find a game in the casino where you have a positive return. Craps by definition is a negative return game. Even with comps, free play, free rooms it is unlikely you can make up the defined edge that the casino has. And this is because casinos do not offer comps in excess of their "edge."

This doesn't mean you can't get lucky. This doesn't mean you can't beat the game and win. It just means you can't put craps in the category of games where you can be an "advatanged player." You can be a good player, but you cannot expect to win.
tupp
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April 16th, 2013 at 3:17:30 AM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

Craps by definition is a negative return game.


This definition does not take into account the possibility of dice influencing.

No matter how strongly someone insists that dice influencing is impossible, no one has proof that it is impossible.


Quote: AlanMendelson

Even with comps, free play, free rooms it is unlikely you can make up the defined edge that the casino has. And this is because casinos do not offer comps in excess of their "edge."


This is a joke, right?

@Jimbo
Your poll should include another choice: "Advantage play in craps might be possible."
AlanMendelson
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April 16th, 2013 at 3:57:12 AM permalink
Without starting another discussion about DI which would violate the Wizard's rules, let's discuss and define by what is an "advantaged play."

Every thing I have ever read about "advantage play" involves a game with a POSITIVE expectation. There is no POSITIVE expectation at craps, and that's why craps would not be eligible for "advantage play."

Now, if you want to include "lightning strikes" then why not include 8/5 Bonus Poker, or Roulette, or other "negative expectation games"?
Perhaps you also believe in Rob Singer's special plays at video poker? You might as well.
SanchoPanza
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April 16th, 2013 at 4:57:13 AM permalink
Quote: tupp

No matter how strongly someone insists that dice influencing is impossible, no one has proof that it is impossible.

Those 50,000 or so rooms up and down the Strip make clear the effects of house edge. Craps has surely contributed a couple of thousand to that sum.
FleaStiff
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April 16th, 2013 at 5:15:21 AM permalink
Quote: Jimbo

So what is the view of this Forum about advantage playing and craps?

The same as the view of the general public and the view of zillions of experienced Box Men and Dice Dealers nationwide: there may be some famous players but there are no long-term profitable players. Fame and notoriety can be based on language, dress, demeanor, styles of play etc. but no one has a lasting reputation based on money won.

So absent the woman in Vegas who routinely tossed the dice under an upraised and panty-less leg or absent the gentleman who played at Binions each morning in diplotmatically-correct formal dress you may have less colorful and less interesting players but you still don't have anyone who walks away from the table rich each and every year, year after year. Does not happen now, did not happen earlier, will not happen later.

Of course we all note the one exception that is forever with us: Hollywood, California. So be prepared for ultimate winners in The Montecito Casino. They will always appear from time to time and as with all imaginary characters disappear from scripts too.

The other island of reality-disconnect is Seminar City. Where ever you find someone hawking seminars about gambling, you will find photographs of secret oxygen tanks, dice-influencing millionaires entering a Rolls Royce and naked cocktail waitresses chained to beds and begging for sex. Just pay your seminar fee and you too can feel the oxygen and meet the sex-crazed naked women.
Ibeatyouraces
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April 16th, 2013 at 5:45:27 AM permalink
deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
treetopbuddy
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April 16th, 2013 at 6:03:12 AM permalink
Quote: FleaStiff



The other island of reality-disconnect is Seminar City. Where ever you find someone hawking seminars about gambling, you will find photographs of secret oxygen tanks, dice-influencing millionaires entering a Rolls Royce and naked cocktail waitresses chained to beds and begging for sex. Just pay your seminar fee and you too can feel the oxygen and meet the sex-crazed naked women.



"Sex-crazed naked women" No wonder the waiting lists for the seminars is typically two or more years.
Each day is better than the next
Jimbo
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April 16th, 2013 at 6:37:15 AM permalink
Thanks for your separate responses to my original post, Ibeatyouraces.

In full disclosure, I agree that it is an oxymoron to try to apply the generally accepted definition of Advantage Player to craps play, since there is no way to achieve an overall mathematical edge in the game of craps.

The reason for my original post and question is because last weekend a tables game supervisor described me as an Advantage Player as the result of my own craps play--since I am personally up. I told him there was no such thing in craps.

I am also described as a very disciplined player, but that is not the same thing.

I was interested in the view of other people on this Forum about this question--due to my discussion last weekend with the games supervisor. Based on some of the posts, I thought that maybe there was a difference of opinion as to what a true AP is. For example, it is appropriate to include the comps in the calculations or is it more accurate to not include comps?

I do not believe that there is any truth to dice control or dice influence provided the dice are thrown legally with both dice bouncing off the backboard--and I can post my reasons in the appropriate thread so as to avoid going off on a tangent here. [I was initially intrigued when Stanford Wong first came out in support, but after a considerable examination, I reject the notion.] So to me, it is not possible to achieve Advantage Player "status" with the use of precision shooting.

Nor do I believe in "systems." One of the reasons that I am here on this Forum is that the comments of the Wizard on his Wizard of Odds site include many of the same things that I have said for years.
Ahigh
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April 16th, 2013 at 6:45:24 AM permalink
The forum doesn't have a view. The forum is made up of many members.

Some members say things that aren't true, and some members do work to determine what the truth is.

Those who do the least work to determine the truth are the most certain of their beliefs relating to the subject you have brought up.

If you want to know the truth, help with the work.

If you were just curious and are wanting a conclusion, don't expect an answer. Expect to get a lie.
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EvenBob
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April 16th, 2013 at 7:11:13 AM permalink
AP is very simple. it means when you walk in a
casino you have the advantage in your game
and not the casino. Every time you walk in, not
just sometimes. Its a positive edge that manifests
itself over time. You have it or you don't, there's
no maybe involved.

Do dice shooters have that? And of course there's
a 'conclusion', Ahigh. If you don't know if you have
an edge or not, you don't. It doesn't come and go,
its there all the time. It can be proven with math,
like in BJ advantage play.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
Ahigh
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April 16th, 2013 at 7:24:51 AM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Do dice shooters have that? And of course there's
a 'conclusion', Ahigh. If you don't know if you have
an edge or not, you don't. It doesn't come and go,
its there all the time. It can be proven with math,
like in BJ advantage play.



Sorry Bob. I hate having to correct you on this, but if advantage play on craps is possible, it's not due to math or statistics unless you're exploiting biased dice.

If advantage play on craps is possible, you are dependent on the performance of the shooter.

And as the shooter gets older, the advantage will disappear.

For any given theoretically advantaged shooter, there is a career lifetime for the shooter, after which retirement will be required.

I can't deliver a satisfactory shot when I get nervous because my hands shake. I have finally gotten over this problem for the most part.

But if you're shaking or nervous or just plain old and frail, you are much less likely to have a controlled shot, even if it is proven possible.

Some people just don't have the physical dexterity to ever be an advantage craps player.

So for some people (IMO for MOST people), it's absolutely correct that AP craps play is not possible.

Even for those that it is, I believe it requires a solid year of practice and training if you want to bring that number in.

But all of this is theory from my perspective as nothing has been proven.

But even though it's theory, your assertion that it's just based on math is wrong. There is no math based advantage play on craps. That much is certain.
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EvenBob
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April 16th, 2013 at 7:36:58 AM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

Sorry Bob. I hate having to correct you on this, but if advantage play on craps is possible, it's not due to math



AP is never 'due' to the math, its proven with math. Big
difference. If AP in craps has ever been consistently
proven with math, that the shooter has the advantage
in the long run every time he plays, its never been shown
here. Read Kewlj's latest thread, he's been down all year,
but kept playing because there was never any doubt he
had the edge. The math says so. It doesn't say that with
craps, does it.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
Ahigh
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April 16th, 2013 at 7:42:54 AM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

AP is never 'due' to the math, its proven with math. Big
difference. If AP in craps has ever been consistently
proven with math, that the shooter has the advantage
in the long run every time he plays, its never been shown
here. Read Kewlj's latest thread, he's been down all year,
but kept playing because there was never any doubt he
had the edge. The math says so. It doesn't say that with
craps, does it.



Math != Statistics

BZZZT!

You cannot prove AP craps play with math alone.

Proving AP craps play for a given shooter is not a certainty that the shooter will always enjoy AP craps play.

Your comments illuminate your very limited view on the subject. It's an interesting read!
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Jimbo
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April 16th, 2013 at 7:45:22 AM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

The forum doesn't have a view. The forum is made up of many members.

I realize that. I was interested in the views (plural) of the members.

Quote: Ahigh

Some members say things that aren't true...Expect to get a lie.

I'd like to believe I have enough experience over the years and I've put forth enough effort in the game of craps to be able to sort out most of the truths, superstitions, and half-truths.

I give most people the benefit of the doubt and rather than characterize a member of the forum as lying, I'd rather think of a person as mistaken. There is a difference.

I recognize that in some areas of gaming, and craps in particular, there is disagreement--sometimes very strong disagreement.

There are many diverse approaches to the game--which is one of the reasons it is a fascinating game and also entertaining to watch how others approach the game and play.

Some people believe in "betting systems" in craps in spite of the mathematical evidence to the contrary. Also the fact that there is a huge gaming industry nation-and-world-wide employing hundreds of thousands, generating billions of revenue and tax dollars and patronized by millions of people over the course of many years in which no valid betting system in craps has yet been found, or otherwise the rules of the game would have been changed to counteract such a system.

The discussion of dice control on this Forum is clearly a subject with strong disagreement.

And there are those who will gladly pay others in the hope they will learn the "secret" to long-term success and riches in the game of craps. And plenty of people who will gladly take their money.

I don't get worked up too much when others disagree with me--which I actually do not hear about too often since I avoid proselytizing about my play. I do get asked on occasion, and in those instances I will explain how and why I play the way I do. But I don't worry whether the questioner is persuaded or not. I take satisfaction in knowing what I do has worked very well for me.

As with many things in life, different strokes for different folks. No point in losing sleep when someone has a contrary opinion.

And certainly no point in getting "personal."
AlanMendelson
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April 16th, 2013 at 7:47:48 AM permalink
We're going to go in circles for 120 pages unless someone comes up with a definition for "advantage play."

If you make up your own definition, everything is advantage play.
EvenBob
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April 16th, 2013 at 7:50:24 AM permalink
Quote: Ahigh


You cannot prove AP craps play with math alone.



Of course you can, just like the casino can prove its edge
in craps with math alone. Or its edge in any other of its
games. If you can't prove that you have a consistent edge
when you throw the dice, with math, you aren't an AP.
You're just a figment of you're own imagination and wishful
thinking.

Statistics prove your edge over time. You can produce no
such statistics, so you're not an AP.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
Ahigh
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April 16th, 2013 at 7:51:10 AM permalink
I think a lot of the people lying on this forum aren't intentionally misleading people. They believe what they are saying, but many lies are still told.

Such lies are "it's not possible to AP craps."

It is closure, but there is no certainty to such a certain assertion.

Those who chose that it's not possible have no way to come to their conclusion any more than someone who goes to church every sunday has a proof that their God is the one true God and that other gods are false prophets.

It won't matter to them because they have decided to believe in what they believe in, and they routinely cite their beliefs as their passion for how they live their life.

But if I were to tell them "you're religion is based on false hopes" I am sure it would offend them.

It's not unlike Advantage Play craps except that there are faithful on both sides of the fence with AP craps play, not just one.
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treetopbuddy
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April 16th, 2013 at 7:51:37 AM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

We're going to go in circles for 120 pages unless someone comes up with a definition for "advantage play."

If you make up your own definition, everything is advantage play.



Here's a definition of AP.....you win more than you lose.
Each day is better than the next
Ahigh
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April 16th, 2013 at 7:52:59 AM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Of course you can, just like the casino can prove its edge
in craps with math alone. Or its edge in any other of its
games. If you can't prove that you have a consistent edge
when you throw the dice, with math, you aren't an AP.
You're just a figment of you're own imagination and wishful
thinking.

Statistics prove your edge over time. You can produce no
such statistics, so you're not an AP.



Uhm, no you can't because there is no way to do it with just math and 100% purely random outcomes.

You have a very limited view of this game I am realizing.
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EvenBob
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April 16th, 2013 at 7:57:03 AM permalink
Quote: Ahigh


You have a very limited view of this game I am realizing.



No, you have an exaggerated view of what an AP
is. You seem to think a person is an AP just because
he says so. It doesn't work that way.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
Jimbo
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April 16th, 2013 at 8:00:43 AM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

We're going to go in circles for 120 pages unless someone comes up with a definition for "advantage play."

If you make up your own definition, everything is advantage play.

I proposed a definition for an Advantage Player in the initial post that started this thread.

I then questioned whether that definition could/should be expanded in consideration of craps play.

I concur there needs to be an agreed-upon definition for "advantage play" because without that consensus, we will be going around in circles.
Ahigh
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April 16th, 2013 at 8:01:44 AM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

No, you have an exaggerated view of what an AP
is. You seem to think a person is an AP just because
he says so. It doesn't work that way.



You have no clue about what your'e talking about. Most people who read your posts have to click a link to read them. The reason why is because you are more than likely the most commonly blocked member of this forum with the least valuable input per post made.
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AlanMendelson
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April 16th, 2013 at 8:05:01 AM permalink
Ahigh... so we are talking about the same thing:

what is your definition of "advantage play at craps"??
MrV
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April 16th, 2013 at 8:05:18 AM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

And as the shooter gets older, the advantage will disappear.

For any given theoretically advantaged shooter, there is a career lifetime for the shooter, after which retirement will be required.

But if you're shaking or nervous or just plain old and frail, you are much less likely to have a controlled shot, even if it is proven possible.



Logically, that "sort of" makes sense, until you consider the curious case of Frank Scoblete's Captain of Craps.

He was well into his dotage, with one foot in the grave, clad in Depends and with a Geritol IV drip when he uncorked his (ahem: alleged) record craps roll in AC.

So, no lesser craps luminary than Frank Scoblete says you are wrong.
"What, me worry?"
odiousgambit
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April 16th, 2013 at 8:46:39 AM permalink
Currently I am over-comped in craps; even the part that turns into a cash amount [EV of coupons] exceeds my theoretical losses. After tips it doesnt look so good [g]

But I still voted 'no' because such a player can't keep going back whenever he wants to realize this advantage.

I think it is possible somebody could "don johnson" his way into advantage play in craps, but I've never heard of it. [I mean loss rebates of course]
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Ahigh
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April 16th, 2013 at 9:05:13 AM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

Ahigh... so we are talking about the same thing:

what is your definition of "advantage play at craps"??



In general, advantage play craps has always been possible. In general what the casinos aim to do is to tighten the rules of the game to close off any advantage play that cuts into the casino's revenue.

Advantage play craps includes such things as burning specific corners of the dice in order to get a non-random outcome and bet accordingly.

But in general, advantage play craps involves getting an advantage from the outcome of the dice being unevenly distributed among the 21 possible outcomes.

The part that is the most argued about is whether or not you can get that uneven distribution using a controlled shot with 100% fair dice.

There is no argument that dice can be modified to get an advantage in the game, and this is advantage play craps. It does exist, it's just that modification of the dice (by the player) is illegal if done purposefully to alter the outcome so that it is no longer 100% random.

There is more than a single method to get a player edge in the game. This also includes collusion with dealers (also illegal), tok-for-mistake in player's advantage (very common, yet also illegal if it can be proven or if you admit to doing this), late betting the don't pass line after a point is established (obviously illegal and an easy way to go to jail, yet if you act stupid enough you can get away with trying it, and many people innocently do try it without knowing the rules of the game), using free bets to overcome the negative aspect of the game (getting over-comp'd -- EG: if they comp your odds as they do in some places).

There are so many ways to advantage play the game. And in general, most known ways are dealt with, yet many instances of illegal advantage plays still go unnoticed at lower denomination bets.

IE: the easiest way to advantage play the game is to stay near the minimum bets and bet during busy times so that dealer mistakes on your lower denomination bets are more likely to go in your favor while higher denomination bets are tended to.

The dealers absolutely know about this, as does the pit boss. And my point in mentioning it isn't to encourage other people to go out and do this. I am a very honest player who does not take advantage of these mistakes, but in a place I have never been before, there is an expectation in many instances, that I am a dealer and I am willing to look the other way when a dealer makes a mistake in my favor, and they will say "thank you" when I tip them a small fraction of the value of that mistake later.

I make it clear in these instances that I don't play the game that way, but it is also clear that especially people who are recognized as dealers get the nudge-nudge wink-wink treatment as long as the bet sizes remain small.

But using the above information, and I do consider this advantage play (illegal or not, there's an advantage), it's obvious that you can AP the game.

The trick in every single instance of AP playing craps is how to get away with it in the long run. Just like blackjack. And a lot of the answer for that has more to do with having a good personality that allows the table to continue to win money, and ideally to win more money while you are there (IE: if you are a shill for the house when you're not betting, they will love you).

If instead you are there telling everybody not the bet the big 6, or to not make a pass line bet after the point is established on a 4 or a 10, the house won't really want you around (if they are the type of house that likes that extra income, and most are; especially on the strip).

There are so many nooks and crannies in this game, and almost all of them are opportunities for casinos to make more money.

But if you're not hurting the table's revenue while you're there, you can get paid just like the dealers and the boxman.

You just can't be looking out for every single player all of the time if you expect to do it in the long term.

That's my view on things anyway.

Even someone who is just really lucky and bets standard bets and wins while everyone wins is less likely to continue to have that good fortune than someone who wins money and doesn't bet the same way as everyone else on the table with every bet they win on.

IE: the advantage play craps player that has a career instead of a sprint of good income is the one that's not greedy and is close friends with the pit crews that pay him. His daily take is less than 1/10th the daily take of the table, and more likely 1/20th or even less than that. The average table makes less than $2,000 per day. So $200 income per day per table is about what you should limit yourself to if you want to continue doing it.
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SanchoPanza
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April 16th, 2013 at 9:22:19 AM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

If you make up your own definition, everything is advantage play.

First choice: Good looker being short sticked.
Second choice: Fantastic cocktail server.
Ahigh
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April 16th, 2013 at 9:28:58 AM permalink
If you are a professional, it's harder because your time is worth money as well and you have to factor that in.

But for casual AP play, you're looking to overcome the house edge plus tips, and maybe transportation money if you aren't enjoying the ride to/from.
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AlanMendelson
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April 16th, 2013 at 9:38:33 AM permalink
Ahigh give me a more specific answer about what is advantage play for craps? I don't think "advantage players" at blackjack or even some video poker games can identify with what you are talking about. For blackjack and video poker, the "advantage" comes from winning, and being in a position to keep winning and to have an actual play by play advantage over the house. You wrote more of an essay than a definition of advantage play for craps.

If for example you said that as an advantage player you always have a mathematical advantage on each and every bet it would be something that the blackjack and video poker players could identify with.

I'm at a loss of words to describe what a craps advantage play would be, so I am hoping you can come up with it.
Jimbo
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April 16th, 2013 at 9:40:16 AM permalink
I included in my original definition of Advantage Play the following: "...using skill and knowledge in a legal way."

Unquestionably it is possible to describe illegal ways to achieve an advantage in craps, but that is not what is intended by most people in discussing the play of APs. At least, that is not what I intended in this thread.
Ahigh
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April 16th, 2013 at 9:47:55 AM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

Ahigh give me a more specific answer about what is advantage play for craps? I don't think "advantage players" at blackjack or even some video poker games can identify with what you are talking about. For blackjack and video poker, the "advantage" comes from winning, and being in a position to keep winning and to have an actual play by play advantage over the house. You wrote more of an essay than a definition of advantage play for craps.

If for example you said that as an advantage player you always have a mathematical advantage on each and every bet it would be something that the blackjack and video poker players could identify with.

I'm at a loss of words to describe what a craps advantage play would be, so I am hoping you can come up with it.



Legal AP craps is when you know that you will get more OR less of a particular outcome of the dice, and you bet in a way that takes advantage of that fact.

You still have to use the math, but it's only part of the picture.

I don't expect people who struggle to understand advantage play blackjack or advantage play video poker to easily grasp advantage play craps.

The math just lets you know where the easiest hurdles to overcome are.

As an example, with my roll data, if I use the 2323 set, I get a ton of fours and just as few sevens. I would be required to have 4:7 ratio significantly higher than 1:2 to overcome the 0.33% edge per roll on the four. If I were to attempt AP play this way, I would probably work the four on the comeout, and bet the don't pass line to shoot to reduce my exposure from a $25 loss on a seven to only $20 while still maintaining a low edge without betting against myself since I'm aiming for a four on the comeout.

I hope this helps, but if you are complaining that I'm giving you too much information, my feeling is that you will just not understand what AP craps play is no matter what I say.

It's not like I haven't been posting on this forum for months explaining this type of thing and yet you still have some of the most basic questions demonstrating a lack of knowledge that is quite unusual from my perspective given your interest level.

To make another point: free odds bets are great for those who plan to get lucky. But you can overcome a 0.33% edge per roll with a shot in theory from my perspective. It's easier to overcome it with luck in the long run if you get it down lower, but if you can get 1% to 10% player edge on the four with your shot, free odds bets can get you betting on numbers where you don't have as good of an edge, and you feel obligated to take every free odds bet, you can shoot yourself in the foot with a controlled throw taking free bets IMO.
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Ibeatyouraces
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April 16th, 2013 at 9:53:59 AM permalink
deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
Ahigh
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April 16th, 2013 at 10:00:41 AM permalink
Just looking at what's on the top of my set, I get that 1 in 29 instead of 1 in 36. It's been that way since August for all my recorded throws.

That might not be "knowing" but I sure take advantage of it continuing to happen this way at home and in the casino. Maybe it's not knowledge and it's just luck. I don't care what it is as long as it keeps happening I bet accordingly.
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Zcore13
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April 16th, 2013 at 10:02:24 AM permalink
His basic theory of advantage play is by cheating and breaking the law. Manipulating the dice. Brilliiant.

Quote: Ahigh

Advantage play craps includes such things as burning specific corners of the dice in order to get a non-random outcome and bet accordingly.

But in general, advantage play craps involves getting an advantage from the outcome of the dice being unevenly distributed among the 21 possible outcomes.

The part that is the most argued about is whether or not you can get that uneven distribution using a controlled shot with 100% fair dice.

There is no argument that dice can be modified to get an advantage in the game, and this is advantage play craps. It does exist, it's just that modification of the dice (by the player) is illegal if done purposefully to alter the outcome so that it is no longer 100% random.




But wait, I'm sure I'm wrong. I'm lying about is own quote...


ZCore13
I am an employee of a Casino. Former Table Games Director,, current Pit Supervisor. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.
Ahigh
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April 16th, 2013 at 10:06:31 AM permalink
Quote: Zcore13

But wait, I'm sure I'm wrong. I'm lying about is own quote...



I said it includes. I didn't say it was basic theory.

My point in mentioning all of these things was to point out how obvious it is that advantage play is possible.

Whether it is a lie or not, you continue to have an agenda of attempting to discredit what I say.

Nowhere did I say "here is how you do it" or "here are the basics for approaching advantage play" as you imply with your statements.

I said it INCLUDES these obvious methods of obtaining an advantage, which are known, and therefore are illegal.

The point in mentioning all of this is that the casino is generally making laws to prevent advantage play from occurring to protect themselves.

Not to suggest that anyone break the law to perform advantage play.

But keep on with your little agenda of attempting to discredit my claims.

To me so many of your claims are obviously false and obviously misleading it's ridiculous.

I'm sure that you're fooling someone though, so keep at it for their benefit.

The subject of the thread is "is it possible."

The answer is "yes."

Every single person who voted no is wrong in my opinion. And certainly if you define advantage play in craps appropriately, you could claim it's not possible. But most advantage play techniques that exist are made illegal BECAUSE they exist.

It's very simple!
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Jimbo
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April 16th, 2013 at 10:08:57 AM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

The trick in every single instance of AP playing craps is how to get away with it in the long run. Just like blackjack. And a lot of the answer for that has more to do with having a good personality that allows the table to continue to win money, and ideally to win more money while you are there (IE: if you are a shill for the house when you're not betting, they will love you).

With all due respect, Ahigh, I am a little baffled or confused by some of your comments. I blame myself in that I may be reading more into it than you intended.

In my own extensive craps play, I have never been concerned about "getting away with it in the long run." Even when up, my play has been welcomed.

And how does having a good personality allow the table to win money?

Quote: Ahigh

Even someone who is just really lucky and bets standard bets and wins while everyone wins is less likely to continue to have that good fortune than someone who wins money and doesn't bet the same way as everyone else on the table with every bet they win on.


It seems you are saying in this second quote that to win in the long run ("to continue to have that good fortune") it is necessary that you bet contrary to others on the table.

Quote: Ahigh

IE: the advantage play craps player that has a career instead of a sprint of good income is the one that's not greedy and is close friends with the pit crews that pay him. His daily take is less than 1/10th the daily take of the table, and more likely 1/20th or even less than that. The average table makes less than $2,000 per day. So $200 income per day per table is about what you should limit yourself to if you want to continue doing it.

Here you seem to say that to win in the long run ("a career instead of a sprint") you cannot be greedy and the only way to be allowed to play as a winner at a craps table is to limit yourself to no more than $200 income per day.

At the risk of sounding immodest and also acknowledging that I play for higher stakes, I would stop going to the casino altogether if I thought that I could only average $200 per day for each day of craps play.
Ahigh
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April 16th, 2013 at 10:17:14 AM permalink
Quote: Jimbo

At the risk of sounding immodest and also acknowledging that I play for higher stakes, I would stop going to the casino altogether if I thought that I could only average $200 per day for each day of craps play.



First and foremost, Jimbo, I appreciate your posts and questions and your honesty.

The easiest way to be a lifetime winner at any casino game is to play fewer events on the game.

I am a lifetime winner at blackjack and at video slots in fact!

But if you play at sufficiently high stakes relative to your available resources, you are, by definition, a gambler.

Gamblers who play at higher stakes and less often are much more likely to win than someone who plays as often as I play.

AP at the casino involves leveraging an edge through repetitious play that exploits that edge.

Not trying to make the edge so small or the number of events so few that luck determines your future.

I have played an average of 3 hours a day for three years now here in Vegas.

I am known by a very large percentage of the dealers at the casinos that I visit.

As an example, I went into the Plaza Sunday night, and I started to play.

I pulled $100 out of my wallet and the boxman knows who I am. I started winning and he came by to watch, and I sevened out on a short roll.

I said "on a shorty?"

He walked away, then he came back and told me "both dice have to hit the back wall" when both dice did hit the back wall.

It was clear he didn't want me at the casino. I looked at him in the eye and I said "everything down, lay the 8 for $24, lay the 5 for $30, pass the dice."

I hadn't even begun to play and I had $3500 in my wallet. He has seen me take four figures off his table in 10 minutes, and his comment had nothing to do with my short roll (the only one of which was a seven). He just didn't want me taking his money.

That table has been reported by a dealer at the D a few days earlier as having been dumping hard, and he's in the spotlight to protect it.

I'm not going to bust his balls. There are plenty of places for me to play.

If I only had came in with $100 and had nothing in my wallet or if he hadn't recognized me and eyeballed my wallet when I came into the game, I would not have gotten that treatment. At least not until I had won enough to take a lot from him quickly.

This guy knows when I start with $25 passline bets on a 10x table and what my play style is and what my resources are that he need to be defensive. It's his job to not let the table dump, basically.

I just make this point though to say everything changes when you are overt in letting people know what you're doing.

And I hide nothing from anyone. They all know there about my website and everything else, and they have taken no money from me there.
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Zcore13
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April 16th, 2013 at 10:30:21 AM permalink
You make no sense. You include illegal acts in your definition of AP. You include rolls where both dice don't hit the back wall in your "influencing" statistics and expaination of how it's possible. You can't play at certain tables or places or with too many tourists or too many people at the table. You believe there is a chance for the US Dollar to be worth nothing and Bitcoin is your insurance against it. You say you are trying to roll hard 10's (even though it was actually 4's and 10's to start with) and when you don't get what you want for the first 100+ rolls you just weren't "concentrating" enough. Then you get a good run of them all of a sudden and NOW your concentrating enough and influencing.

Everyone is trying to be nice and ask you questions to try and lead you into some enlightenment. You refuse. I'm starting to wonder about your mental state.

ZCore13
I am an employee of a Casino. Former Table Games Director,, current Pit Supervisor. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.
Ahigh
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April 16th, 2013 at 10:37:56 AM permalink
Quote: Zcore13



Everyone is trying to be nice and ask you questions to try and lead you into some enlightenment.

I'm starting to wonder about your mental state.



Very contrasting claims there. Are you genuinely concerned for my mental state? Or would you prefer to call me retarded and that's against the rules here.

Which is it, you're trying to be nice, or you're wondering about my mental state?

I don't think that both can be true. I think that I have pointed out many of your false claims, and you attempt to do the same to me without as much efficacy and so you lash out with claims that you are worried about me as a replacement for calling me a name.

Even the statement "everyone is trying to be nice to you" is false.

Everyone is pretty broad, and therefore the statement is clearly false.

You just aren't concerned with the validity of YOUR claims, and you incorrectly infer the invalidity of mine.
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gts4ever
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April 16th, 2013 at 11:30:10 AM permalink
I'm pretty new to this forum so maybe if I knew some more of the history I wouldn't have this question, but I'm going to ask it anyway.

Why is it that many on here seem aghast when Ahigh talks about shooter skill? I get the impression that some of you understand what he is saying but try to back him into a corner by asking for official statements that can be proven wrong.

To me, Ahigh is describing an AP craps player as someone comparable to a MLB pitcher. Not every pitch goes where they want it, even when it does, sometimes batters will get a hit. Sometimes when they miss locations, they still wind up getting a strike or out. But the better the pitcher, the more times he will throw the pitch he wants. Over time that should result in better than random results. I don't see people asking for mathematic proofs showing why one pitcher is better than another other than to compare the results over a sufficiently long period of time.

I'm not saying I even lean one way or another since I don't know nearly as much as probably anyone in this discussion, but I don't find it beyond belief that tossing two dice against a fixed backdrop, given constant rules of physics, is something that could be practiced and manipulated, even if it appears clumsy to the naked eye.
Ahigh
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April 16th, 2013 at 11:37:57 AM permalink
Quote: gts4ever

I'm pretty new to this forum so maybe if I knew some more of the history I wouldn't have this question, but I'm going to ask it anyway.

Why is it that many on here seem aghast when Ahigh talks about shooter skill? I get the impression that some of you understand what he is saying but try to back him into a corner by asking for official statements that can be proven wrong.

To me, Ahigh is describing an AP craps player as someone comparable to a MLB pitcher. Not every pitch goes where they want it, even when it does, sometimes batters will get a hit. Sometimes when they miss locations, they still wind up getting a strike or out. But the better the pitcher, the more times he will throw the pitch he wants. Over time that should result in better than random results. I don't see people asking for mathematic proofs showing why one pitcher is better than another other than to compare the results over a sufficiently long period of time.

I'm not saying I even lean one way or another since I don't know nearly as much as probably anyone in this discussion, but I don't find it beyond belief that tossing two dice against a fixed backdrop, given constant rules of physics, is something that could be practiced and manipulated, even if it appears clumsy to the naked eye.





The true sport is antagonizing anyone who does not flatly DISMISS the possibility of dice control on this forum. You don't even have to be a claimed advantage shooter (which I am not currently). Just one who entertains the possibility and you are a target for criticism on this forum.

This is part of the forum being so centered around certainties.

The extra work required to make a proof that it's possible (and therefore lack of such proof) leads so many down the path of assuming it has been proven to be impossible.

Certainty (or lack thereof) as it relates to this debate is what fuels these debates. And those who have cognitive dissonance in their brain from not knowing just want closure and assume it's not possible so that they might cull off the necessary thought processes to come to an accurate conclusion whether it's possible or not.

Using circumstantial evidence that people who are not intelligent claim to be able to do things that they cannot do is the most common way people prove to themselves that it's not possible.

But that's not proof of anything at all.

People naturally want closure, and there isn't enough evidence and agreed upon proof that anyone can perform advantage play craps from a controlled shot similar to those being sold by Golden Touch, Little Joe, and other advertised shots that claim to give players an advantage.

I'm sure that some techniques being sold are garbage. But that means nothing to the debate at all.
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Zcore13
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April 16th, 2013 at 12:21:17 PM permalink
Quote: gts4ever

I'm pretty new to this forum so maybe if I knew some more of the history I wouldn't have this question, but I'm going to ask it anyway.

Why is it that many on here seem aghast when Ahigh talks about shooter skill? I get the impression that some of you understand what he is saying but try to back him into a corner by asking for official statements that can be proven wrong.

To me, Ahigh is describing an AP craps player as someone comparable to a MLB pitcher. Not every pitch goes where they want it, even when it does, sometimes batters will get a hit. Sometimes when they miss locations, they still wind up getting a strike or out. But the better the pitcher, the more times he will throw the pitch he wants. Over time that should result in better than random results. I don't see people asking for mathematic proofs showing why one pitcher is better than another other than to compare the results over a sufficiently long period of time.

I'm not saying I even lean one way or another since I don't know nearly as much as probably anyone in this discussion, but I don't find it beyond belief that tossing two dice against a fixed backdrop, given constant rules of physics, is something that could be practiced and manipulated, even if it appears clumsy to the naked eye.



Welcome to the forum. The problem with your analysis and with Ahigh is that you do have to compare results to an everage player, both in baseball and when you are trying to prove you have some sort of control of the dice.

You statement of "I don't see people asking for mathematic proofs showing why one pitcher is better than another other than to compare the results over a sufficiently long period of time." is incorrect. That's what ERA, WHIP, K/BB ratio, etc, etc does. It compares results of every pitcher to the others to determine who is above average and who is below. Each pitcher can be compared with any other for a year, two years, 5 years or a career. They are also professionals and pitch at every different park, even if there are a lot of tourists there or some of the other players on the team are new to the team and he doesn't know them or many other variables. A pitcher can do this because he has proven he can influence and control his pitches. Dice influencers wont let you do that because they don't have any more control than the average.

Ahigh, and all the other people that say they can influence or contol the dice (legally), can't show any relevent statistics or results that are not beyond the average player. They state things after the fact, not before. Blackjack advantage players at times have a statistal advantage that is provable and repeatable. So do other players that play various other table games and side bets. So do Video Poker players. There are BRILLIANT minds on this forum that can prove everything, except dice control. That's why people ask Ahigh questions that they know he can't answer with a straight answer. It's always a dodge or accusation back.

ZCore13
I am an employee of a Casino. Former Table Games Director,, current Pit Supervisor. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.
EvenBob
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April 16th, 2013 at 12:42:44 PM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

You have no clue about what your'e talking about. .



But you do seem to think someone is an
advantage player just because he says so.
You have to meet certain criteria to be
an AP, and it starts with the long term math.
There's no way to talk, wiggle, or squirm
your way out of it. If you can't prove it with
the numbers, you're not an AP.

Period.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
dicesitter
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April 16th, 2013 at 12:50:26 PM permalink
the truth



well you already know the truth...... every bet the casino allows you to make has a negative return, every slot machine you play
has a house advantage, every hand of 3 or 4 card poker you play has a very large advantage, every time you make a hardway bet
or fire bet the house has a 9 point or high advantage.

The casino is better than you and I at knowing what can and can not be done, if it can be done they change the rules for
bj if your good at setting the dice they tell you to throw harder. On the very long tables or very higher tables were no one can
get an advantage they still tell you to hit the back wall.

What truth are you trying to find anyway..... it is 100% impossible to prove anything, particularly in dice influencing because
even if you have exactly the same throw, you are different than every other thrower. You can not possible prove one thing is
the same for all people.

Even if you proved to your satisfaction what ever you are trying to prove. what are you going to do with that, tell all the casino's
see this works so now you can ban all dice sitters, or see this does not work so you dont have to...

every good dice sewtter and I am sure Frank has as well as spoken with casino people and indicated that dice setting is a net
possitive for the casino.... and it is.... they dont care.... end of story

The truth for one is not the truth for another

Dicesitter
EvenBob
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April 16th, 2013 at 12:51:54 PM permalink
Quote: Zcore13

Blackjack advantage players at times have a statistal advantage that is provable and repeatable.

ZCore13



Thats the bottom line, provable and repeatable over an
infinite number of trials. No brick wall to hit. A bank
approves loans to build new casinos because the owner
can prove beyond a shadow of a doubt the games he
offers give him the mathematical edge. If he couldn't
do that, he'd never get a dime.

You can't wiggle out of the math requirement and claim
to be an AP, not a real AP, anyway.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
Face
Administrator
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April 16th, 2013 at 1:57:03 PM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

Advantage play craps includes such things as burning specific corners of the dice in order to get a non-random outcome and bet accordingly.

But in general, advantage play craps involves getting an advantage from the outcome of the dice being unevenly distributed among the 21 possible outcomes.

The part that is the most argued about is whether or not you can get that uneven distribution using a controlled shot with 100% fair dice.

There is no argument that dice can be modified to get an advantage in the game, and this is advantage play craps. It does exist, it's just that modification of the dice (by the player) is illegal if done purposefully to alter the outcome so that it is no longer 100% random.

There is more than a single method to get a player edge in the game. This also includes collusion with dealers (also illegal), tok-for-mistake in player's advantage (very common, yet also illegal if it can be proven or if you admit to doing this), late betting the don't pass line after a point is established (obviously illegal and an easy way to go to jail, yet if you act stupid enough you can get away with trying it, and many people innocently do try it without knowing the rules of the game), using free bets to overcome the negative aspect of the game (getting over-comp'd -- EG: if they comp your odds as they do in some places).

But using the above information, and I do consider this advantage play (illegal or not, there's an advantage), it's obvious that you can AP the game.



I’m somewhat shocked the APs here haven’t gone all PaiGowDan on you for this. There is, in my opinion and I believe the opinion of all of the APs here, a complete difference between almost everything you listed (illegal activities and blatant cheating) and AP (legal exploitation of an inherent edge).

Physically changing the properties of the die, toking for collusion, past posting; these are not AP. These are criminal acts and can in no way be used as evidence of “an edge” no more than I could claim I’m a financial wizard because of all the money I have, money which was obtained by bank robbery.

Inherent bias, such as must be present in some quantity in every die ever made, could theoretically be an AP move. The question, which still remains unsolved, is how much bias is required and how possible is it for the human mind to evaluate it? Answer those two questions and prove them as possible and you have proof of AP.

There’s AP for just about every card based game (including “electronic cards”) out there, every single one of them provable and repeatable and explainable. So far, you’ve just posted a theoretical possibility and a handful of criminal activities.
The opinions of this moderator are for entertainment purposes only.
Zcore13
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April 16th, 2013 at 1:59:38 PM permalink
You are exactly right. And real AP's have no interest in discussing this with Ahigh because his points are, well, pointless. I do want to commend you on a new forum term... "going all PaiGowDan" on someone. That made me laugh!

ZCore13
I am an employee of a Casino. Former Table Games Director,, current Pit Supervisor. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.
DeMango
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April 16th, 2013 at 2:03:19 PM permalink
The very concept of advantage player would disallow public scrutiny of your advantage. No one is that stupid. Even the guy with the mask!
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
hook3670
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April 16th, 2013 at 2:11:02 PM permalink
OK "going all PAIGOWDAN" on someone might have to be trademarked. I just laughed my ass off.
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